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Author Topic: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support  (Read 112186 times)

Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1905 on: January 27, 2023, 04:54:46 pm »

There's plenty of hints out there if you look at destroyed vehicles (many of the confirmed and photographed wrecks were destroyed by tank guns), interviews, and the fact that they wouldn't be saying "self-propelled howitzers are great, but we need TANKS!" if they intended to use the tanks as slightly shitty self propelled howitzers.
Perhaps, or maybe they seek to tap into the huge stocks of available tanks and its 120mm ammunition. iirc there were reports of possible shortage of Howitzer (155mm) ammunition in Ukraine and limited production capacity in the west.

There is an interview in which Zaluzhny outright says that Ukraine needs 300 additional tanks (+500 IFW + 500 howitzers) for a spring offensive to start. Heavily implying that without those there will be no offensive
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Devastator

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1906 on: January 27, 2023, 05:39:19 pm »

There have been what, four major successful counteroffensives so far by Ukraine?  I'm absolutely sure every piece of gear improves the situation and will increase the effectiveness, but I'm not going to pretend there's going to be no counteroffensive without any one specific X.

Besides, which, Poland just pledged an additional 90 tanks today, to arrive very soon.
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Starver

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1907 on: January 27, 2023, 07:18:33 pm »

If you don't ask, you won't get.

(And didn't Canada promise a handful of Leopards, at some point soon after .de cleared the way. Only a small number (of a fairly small operational stock, bought for Afghanistan/etc, rather than any fears of an aggressive neighbour!) but for near immediate delivery and might well prepare the way for more of them whilst kickstarting the familiarisation process.)
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jipehog

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1908 on: January 27, 2023, 07:49:55 pm »

There's plenty of hints out there if you look at destroyed vehicles (many of the confirmed and photographed wrecks were destroyed by tank guns), interviews, and the fact that they wouldn't be saying "self-propelled howitzers are great, but we need TANKS!" if they intended to use the tanks as slightly shitty self propelled howitzers.
Perhaps, or maybe they seek to tap into the huge stocks of available tanks and its 120mm ammunition. iirc there were reports of possible shortage of Howitzer (155mm) ammunition in Ukraine and limited production capacity in the west.

There is an interview in which Zaluzhny outright says that Ukraine needs 300 additional tanks (+500 IFW + 500 howitzers) for a spring offensive to start. Heavily implying that without those there will be no offensive

Politicians say a lot of things for various reasons and often with specific target audiences in mind. For example see Russian state media narratives about Nuclear Weapons and Holy War, if taken at face value one can conclude that Putin has gone mad; alternatively it can be seen as intentional calculated narratives using fear of nuclear annihilation to swaying public opinion against providing support for ukraine (in this sense Russia deterrence has eroded a lot) and for domestic purposes to unite the people by playing into local popular sentiments.

Anyway, Zaluzhny statement seem like a cleaver political move (applying pressure on Germany?) however I don't know to what extent it is true. Regardless i still suspect that those tanks won't be a huge game changer due their specs per se.
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Devastator

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1909 on: January 27, 2023, 08:51:27 pm »

(And didn't Canada promise a handful of Leopards, at some point soon after .de cleared the way. Only a small number (of a fairly small operational stock, bought for Afghanistan/etc, rather than any fears of an aggressive neighbour!) but for near immediate delivery and might well prepare the way for more of them whilst kickstarting the familiarisation process.)

Yup, four!  Not many, but more than zero.

Politicians say a lot of things for various reasons and often with specific target audiences in mind. For example see Russian state media narratives about Nuclear Weapons and Holy War, if taken at face value one can conclude that Putin has gone mad; alternatively it can be seen as intentional calculated narratives using fear of nuclear annihilation to swaying public opinion against providing support for ukraine (in this sense Russia deterrence has eroded a lot) and for domestic purposes to unite the people by playing into local popular sentiments.

Anyway, Zaluzhny statement seem like a cleaver political move (applying pressure on Germany?) however I don't know to what extent it is true. Regardless i still suspect that those tanks won't be a huge game changer due their specs per se.

Nah, there's a meaningful number in there.  The amounts requested would give the UA clear numerical superiority if provided, which would allow a lot more tactical and strategic options.  Indeed, most of the 'we want large number Xs' so far have been asking for amounts that would give them that situation.  The numbers have been going down because they've been trading very well and have shifted the odds in their favor almost continually.  I suspect if the number hits zero, it would lead to another dramatic change in how they operate.

There is a cynical component to it, but the question of 'what would things look like if they got that much' has always been, 'that much will give them clear superiority on the battlefield'.

As for game changer, we don't know.  We do know the new tanks have significant useful advantages over their existing stock, and that will allow for new capabilities and change the tactical situation.  Nobody knows exactly how much in what way, but new capabilities always help, be it difficult to predict if they'll only help a little or a lot.
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EuchreJack

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1910 on: January 27, 2023, 11:52:52 pm »

The Republican position in a nutshell:

King Zultan

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1911 on: January 28, 2023, 04:14:35 am »

Do the tanks get blown up so often that they keep needing new ones or are they just getting lots of them for a big push later?
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Devastator

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1912 on: January 28, 2023, 04:26:15 am »

..Both.

Ukraine started out dramatically outnumbered.  Dramatically.

A fair number of their tanks have gotten blown up, and a fair number still do get blown up.

They've been remarkably good at taking far more out than they've lost, and capturing a serious amount of extra tanks, too.  Enough that it's a reasonable question if they've captured as many as they've lost so far.

They're still outnumbered at this point, just.. well, it's reasonable, with victory in sight.

Overall they have more tanks than they've started out with, between captures and military aid, but that brings the numbers to something approaching even.  More really would help and would make the next push easier.

If you want a working example, here's two lists of visually-documented losses, one for each side.  It'll give you an idea of the comparative kill rate, and just how well Ukraine has been fighting so far.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html
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Lord Shonus

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1913 on: January 28, 2023, 04:28:42 am »

Combat grinds everything to dust.

A tank is so massive and so crammed with stuff that just driving one around puts a hellacious strain on the vehicle's everything. That means wear and tear accumulates far faster than something like a car.

And you're not slamming your car at 40 miles per hour across rough country dodging incoming fire, slamming into obstacles, pushing through terrain, and generally driving like an absolute madman. That's the kind of thing tanks just straight up exist to do. Even if a tank doesn't get taken out by fire, it takes a shockingly short period of time before you have to shove it back into the maintenance shed for an overhaul.

Naturally, they're having lots of tanks getting battle damage as well, which also sends them back to the depot for repairs if it doesn't simply destroy the tank.

There's a large number actually being destroyed, but that is far from the only drain on their availability numbers.
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Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1914 on: January 28, 2023, 07:44:06 am »

Do the tanks get blown up so often that they keep needing new ones or are they just getting lots of them for a big push later?

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html

Here are documented Ukrainian losses. 450 tanks. You can multiply it (at leas)t by 2 to include undocumented and non-combat losses. Rounding up it is ~1000 tanks lost.

Note this doesn't mean - OMG, tanks are obsolete, they are so easily destroyed.

It is the role of the tank - to be destroyed in the most dangerous areas of the front. It was like that in WW1, in WW2, in the cold war conflicts. Anywhere except very lopsided wars

PS. Russia lost 1650 confirmed... but for them it is not as critical. They have TONS of them. And them sending T62s doesn't mean they are running out, it merely means that they had some laying around in good condition to burn away while they modernize\restore T72s from storage\reserve
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Starver

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1915 on: January 28, 2023, 11:03:37 am »

Figures I've seen vary, on various expert sites, but broadly surround[1] the current wikipedia assessment (either common consent, or the strongest opinion of the very most recent editors suggest, I didn't check the respective page histories) which says that there is a full Russian possession of 2,030 T-72s active (8k 'stored'[2]), 480 T-80s (3k 'stored'), 417 T-90s (+200) and the possibility of a score or so of the newest-gen T-14 (which was supposed to be another full 2,030 delivered by 2020, but got seriously paused five years back and it now I think they're regretting not sacrificing some other bit of the national budget).

Clearly, Russia won't deplete the whole rest of its borders (NATO or non-NATO) to supply AFVs to the theatre, "in case of counter-invasion"... They say they fear NATO attack, and if I can't say for sure NATO would not if they left skeleton forces (or less) there. And I also can't guarantee the 'goodwill' of China or other opportunists. And more strategic reserves must remain 'in-country' ready to patch up those forces (or multiply the total additional deterant factor by sheer flexibility) covering whole swathes of borders with multiple hub-connected. So before they get to reassign any significant fraction of the massive total[3], l they're going to have to bite the metaphorical bullet and move onto some other phase of conflict where tanks are getting moot (or at least need their NBC protection to work well).

(Russia also needs to keep Russia/Occupied-Areas borders gunned up, in case of rapid collapse, change-of-allegience 'occupiers', any sneaky deep-penetrators, dealing with spontaneous fifth²-columns no longer sure that Russia is the answer, etc.)

Guesses as to how much they could/would field to Ukraine vary wildly. Ukraine has the 'advantage' of basically having a lot more front line, in proportion, to the total of not-currently-frontline, not-likely-frontline, frontline-only-against-allies and area coverage they need to consider maintaining response forces (for external or internal reactions) dotted around, just in case. And with the promised numbers of Generation 3, 3.5 (i.e. enhanced 3rds) and possibly 4, competing with the respective numbers across the Russian spectrum (some upgraded T-72s may be considered 3rds, but may be under the  T-90 count; T-80s could be seventies 'early 3rds' from Soviet era or nineties enhanced models more realistically 3rd) seems to be one of the interesting factors. Of course, the inferior stock has already been depleted by Ukraine's initial resistance (including local-adaptation Ts that seem to be better/more available than similar late-variation Russian homegrown forks of the product line managed to be).

I think the stated numbers of required tanks (not bleeding-edge, but mostly not junk) is going to have a disproportionate advantage over the Russian stuff (fixer-uppers and hastily upgraded where so done, as a dominant trend). But this is something you need to refer to somewhere like Jane's, though, or be a good analyst your own right if you don't have one of them in your pocket, willing to whisper into your ear as well as the ears of the Agency they should probably be working for...




(Belarus adds a few hundred more, mostly '72s, if they can be pursuaded to do anything. Would be interesting to see how Russia is working towards that, but surely needs the 2023 Spring Offensive to go really well for Russia to give their ally the incentive to narrow the other grip on the vice. And, before that, support for Ukraine is going to have to tip over into either far greater or far less than now, to change the whole dynamic.)


[1] Some could be better updated, having removed those known as no longer in use due to such as having suffered indegestion from eating too much many bits of non-Russian metal...

[2] I honour the term used, but this figure may total more than they are theoretical capable of actually unmothballing/whatever, never mind those that they are actually seriously trying to bring to service.

[3] They could 'afford' to near clean out all training areas of tanks, of course. And might do the WW2 thing of driving the vehicles off the Tankograd production lines straight towards the battlezone[4], eschewing the break-in testing phase.

[4] Ok, so unless they're really running short of conscripts, they won't have their final fitters-and-welders become their first (and 'virgin') crew, thowing them into the battle just as desperately.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2023, 11:06:53 am by Starver »
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jipehog

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1916 on: January 28, 2023, 12:24:58 pm »

There is also the question of storage conditions, the assessment I seen doubt that Russia will be able to operationalize large portions of what it has on paper, maybe not even able to scavenge it for parts, and there is also the question of tank crew availability.

But overall Russia has entered the war with far far superior numbers of hardware both of tank and artillery. Though we haven't seen Russia make use of large tank formation in this phase, reportedly they are spread thin through out the whole front.

The next round of fighting will be different as Ukraine success, forced Russia to retreat and significantly reduce its frontline and more favorable terrain. Also Ukraine keep getting hardware and Russia mobilization wave will soon arrive. Whether advantage by more modern tanks will be enough it is unclear, so far what won the day wasn't Ukraine equipment technical specs but exploiting weakness and superior position.
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Devastator

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1917 on: January 28, 2023, 02:25:53 pm »

Do the tanks get blown up so often that they keep needing new ones or are they just getting lots of them for a big push later?

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html

Here are documented Ukrainian losses. 450 tanks. You can multiply it (at leas)t by 2 to include undocumented and non-combat losses. Rounding up it is ~1000 tanks lost.

Note this doesn't mean - OMG, tanks are obsolete, they are so easily destroyed.

It is the role of the tank - to be destroyed in the most dangerous areas of the front. It was like that in WW1, in WW2, in the cold war conflicts. Anywhere except very lopsided wars

PS. Russia lost 1650 confirmed... but for them it is not as critical. They have TONS of them. And them sending T62s doesn't mean they are running out, it merely means that they had some laying around in good condition to burn away while they modernize\restore T72s from storage\reserve

This statement is silly.  Whatever the missing amounts are, it's not half the total.. there are too many losses on the list for there to be that many missing.  There are too many Russia T-80 Us (and Ukrainian Bulats) for that to be the case.

As for 'these thousands of losses doesn't matter', heh.  Yeah, no.  Don't know what you're selling but I'm not buying that.  Just the usual lies, "Our losses don't matter, but you have to double their losses to get the real total!"
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Devastator

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1918 on: January 28, 2023, 02:33:02 pm »

Clearly, Russia won't deplete the whole rest of its borders (NATO or non-NATO) to supply AFVs to the theatre, "in case of counter-invasion"... They say they fear NATO attack, and if I can't say for sure NATO would not if they left skeleton forces (or less) there. And I also can't guarantee the 'goodwill' of China or other opportunists. And more strategic reserves must remain 'in-country' ready to patch up those forces (or multiply the total additional deterant factor by sheer flexibility) covering whole swathes of borders with multiple hub-connected. So before they get to reassign any significant fraction of the massive total[3], l they're going to have to bite the metaphorical bullet and move onto some other phase of conflict where tanks are getting moot (or at least need their NBC protection to work well).

(Russia also needs to keep Russia/Occupied-Areas borders gunned up, in case of rapid collapse, change-of-allegience 'occupiers', any sneaky deep-penetrators, dealing with spontaneous fifth²-columns no longer sure that Russia is the answer, etc.)

Do note Russia already has depleted their borders badly.  They've used several of their garrison units from various "friendly" Central Asian States, such as Turkmenistan who they conquered shortly after 1991.  They've stripped their NATO borders to the bone, removing something like three-quarters of all forces on the Finnish border, as an example, and have used both the unit occupying South Ossentia and the naval infantry unit that made up a good chunk of the forces in old East Prussia.  All of those I've listed have suffered.

The fear of NATO invasion stuff is just lies for the masses, as the huge reductions in border garrisons wouldn't happen if that fear was real.  Particularly in the parts facing Finland and the Baltic States.
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Lord Shonus

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1919 on: January 28, 2023, 04:06:34 pm »

Do the tanks get blown up so often that they keep needing new ones or are they just getting lots of them for a big push later?

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html

Here are documented Ukrainian losses. 450 tanks. You can multiply it (at leas)t by 2 to include undocumented and non-combat losses. Rounding up it is ~1000 tanks lost.

Note this doesn't mean - OMG, tanks are obsolete, they are so easily destroyed.

It is the role of the tank - to be destroyed in the most dangerous areas of the front. It was like that in WW1, in WW2, in the cold war conflicts. Anywhere except very lopsided wars

PS. Russia lost 1650 confirmed... but for them it is not as critical. They have TONS of them. And them sending T62s doesn't mean they are running out, it merely means that they had some laying around in good condition to burn away while they modernize\restore T72s from storage\reserve

This statement is silly.  Whatever the missing amounts are, it's not half the total.. there are too many losses on the list for there to be that many missing.  There are too many Russia T-80 Us (and Ukrainian Bulats) for that to be the case.

As for 'these thousands of losses doesn't matter', heh.  Yeah, no.  Don't know what you're selling but I'm not buying that.  Just the usual lies, "Our losses don't matter, but you have to double their losses to get the real total!"

No, Strongpoint's being perfectly reasonable here. We're only getting the confirmed kill picture from fully secured areas (which is why you see the numbers shoot up shortly after an area is retaken) or from areas where the fighting is largely done by irregulars and militia (very little of the combat footage that's coming out is coming from the Ukrainian Army proper - they're maintaining security). Doubling the numbers on both sides for actual losses may or may not be excessive, but there's no doubt that both are far higher than reflected by those lists.

Russia also genuinely is in a better position to take casualties, from a purely material perspective. They have a lot more men and equipment theoretically (as mentioned by others, much of their "stored" equipment is nothing but stripped and rusted-out hulks at this point) available to them. So far they've wasted a lot due to incompetence, and Ukraine has done very well through foreign aid and strong competence of their own, but that does not yet change the core material calculus. That won't help them in the end if the Ukrainians continue to have a massive qualitative advantage as well as extreme success in interdiction, and they may well be at a stage where actively correcting their core problems is nigh-impossible in this war, but the numbers are there.
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