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Author Topic: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support  (Read 118567 times)

Lord Shonus

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1530 on: October 14, 2022, 12:09:25 pm »

 Vagueness is an important part of MAD because you don't want to have the other guy trying to rules-lawyer exactly how much destruction becomes mutual, but France has a nuclear arsenal for exactly one purpose - to keep people from invading France. For such a purpose, you want clarity - Invade France, and we will nuke you, don't invade France and we won't. Vagueness is an important part of MAD because you don't want to have the other guy trying to rules-lawyer exactly how much destruction becomes mutual,
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Robsoie

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1531 on: October 14, 2022, 12:14:26 pm »

MAD and detterence are different, deterrence means you don't use nukes because you don't want to get nukes exploding in your countries.
MAD is a part of the detterence system, as it is a guarantee of total destruction, and yeah only Russia and USA have that capacity that is very obvious .
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hector13

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1532 on: October 14, 2022, 12:35:19 pm »

MAD is the deterrence: if you shoot nukes at me, I still have time to shoot nukes back at you, nobody wins.

Putin isn’t any more likely to use nukes in Ukraine because of Macron’s announcement.
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EuchreJack

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1533 on: October 15, 2022, 06:19:23 am »

I think the concern is that Marcon is suspected of being Pro-Putin, so this is being interpreted as France saying "Go ahead and Nuke Ukraine, pal"

Seems kinda stupid, since I doubt the radioactive fallout will respect national borders.

Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1534 on: October 15, 2022, 10:08:23 am »

I am like 99.99% sure that Putin will give an order to use nuclear weapons when defeat will become obvious even for him. I merely hope that this order won't be followed


(Imagine if Hitler would be able to nuke London and\or Moscow in April 1945, do you think he wouldn't? Here is the same thing.)
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Il Palazzo

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1535 on: October 15, 2022, 10:47:05 am »

(Imagine if Hitler would be able to nuke London and\or Moscow in April 1945, do you think he wouldn't? Here is the same thing.)
No, it obviously isn't. Nobody's contemplating invading Russia proper and throwing Putin in a ditch, covered in petrol, on fire.
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Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1536 on: October 15, 2022, 11:00:54 am »

(Imagine if Hitler would be able to nuke London and\or Moscow in April 1945, do you think he wouldn't? Here is the same thing.)
No, it obviously isn't. Nobody's contemplating invading Russia proper and throwing Putin in a ditch, covered in petrol, on fire.

Russian people can forgive everything to their dictator. Except a humiliating defeat. In the very first moment after the last Russian troops will retreat from Ukraine, Putin will be doomed and he knows that.
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Il Palazzo

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1537 on: October 15, 2022, 11:06:13 am »

I really don't think anyone would start a nuclear war to stay in power. It would defeat the purpose, see?
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Random_Dragon

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1538 on: October 15, 2022, 11:24:53 am »

I really don't think anyone would start a nuclear war to stay in power. It would defeat the purpose, see?

The fact that it's even on the minds of people as something Putin might hypothetically do answers your question there.
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Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1539 on: October 15, 2022, 11:35:18 am »

I really don't think anyone would start a nuclear war to stay in power. It would defeat the purpose, see?

Well

1) If I'll go, I'll not go alone
2) There is a chance that the West will not provide a strong reaction to Russia using nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
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Robsoie

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1540 on: October 15, 2022, 12:12:49 pm »

The USSR ran away defeated from Afghanistan and never nuked it as a retaliation, same as the USA that ran away from Vietnam defeated and didn't nuked it either after that.

So i believe there's high hope that even if Putin's "special operation" project in Ukraine ends in defeat, he will not go for nuke (as long as none has the silly idea of invading their main land of course).
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Strongpoint

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1541 on: October 15, 2022, 12:37:57 pm »

The USSR ran away defeated from Afghanistan and never nuked it as a retaliation, same as the USA that ran away from Vietnam defeated and didn't nuked it either after that.

So i believe there's high hope that even if Putin's "special operation" project in Ukraine ends in defeat, he will not go for nuke (as long as none has the silly idea of invading their main land of course).


Nah, those are way different.

USSR did some vague "international duty" in a country few Soviet citizens cared about. Vietnam was an unpopular war and Americans WANTED to see it over.

Russia is waging a holy war to cleanse Russian brothers (who are sick and consider themselves a separate nation) from nazism, to save healthy Russians from those sickos, to reclaim Russian core territories, and to restore national pride. You can't simply abandon this and expect to stay in power.
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Lord Shonus

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1542 on: October 15, 2022, 01:04:35 pm »

The USSR ran away defeated from Afghanistan and never nuked it as a retaliation, same as the USA that ran away from Vietnam defeated and didn't nuked it either after that.

So i believe there's high hope that even if Putin's "special operation" project in Ukraine ends in defeat, he will not go for nuke (as long as none has the silly idea of invading their main land of course).


Totally different situations. Afghanistan was a straight up Soviet colonial war, while Vietnam was a really bizarre attempt to salvage a friendly power from a failed French colonial war. Neither were considered core territory of the respective powers. Not only has Putin declared that Ukraine is Russian soil by right and he is going to put the flag back where it belongs, there's a very good chance this war's going to progress into previously annexed Crimea that Russia's already claiming is their sacred soil. Putin's loss of face from losing this war is orders of magnitude greater than the Soviets or Americans suffered in the wars you mention.

More important, the leadership of both the Vietnam-era US and the Afghanistan-era Soviet Union were far more stable than Putin is. Johnson, Nixon and Ford had to worry about the effects of the war on their elections, but the worst case scenario the US faced was the opposition party getting an edge in votes. There was absolutley no risk of the government collapsing, and the people involved risked no greater fate than early retirement. The Soviets faced worse consequence, but nobody was going to pull Gorbachev down and hang him from the nearest lamppost either. Ultimately it was just one more step on the road to ruin for the Soviets, and nobody really expected it to be that much.

Putin's not quite in the position of a Romanov in late 1916, but he's far closer than the examples you pulled. And removing him from power isn't going to be a quiet "you lost the election, it is time to go" moment - it will be an outright coup, with Putin either "killed in the fighting", or later "shot while attempting to escape".  Losing this war might not push him off the cliff, but it will push him a lot closer to the edge, and he knows it.

Of course, the fact that the very first shot the US fires if the balloon goes up is going to be a deep-penetrator right into his lap has to be on his mind as well.

Vietnam was an unpopular war and Americans WANTED to see it over.

That's fairly revisionist. Pop culture likes to pretend that there was massive opposition to Vietnam for the entire war, but in reality the conflict was extremely popular until near the very end. There's documented interviews and polls that suggest even hippies and beatniks were fairly divided about the war, and a hefty proportion of both supported it.
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Egan_BW

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1543 on: October 15, 2022, 01:55:01 pm »

I dunno, let's imagine that Trump wins next election with popular support somehow and makes himself presidente for life, invades mexico as rightful USian clay. And then loses.

Our hypothetical presidente deals with this situation by saying he never claimed that mexico is rightful USian clay, and furthermore we were only defeated by a cabal of sinister european woke globalist deep staters so please donate now to save america.
Does our hypothetical now majority trumpist american people dethrone him for this? I think not, their ideology is Trump. Blatant logical contradiction isn't enough to knock down that sort of leader.
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Random_Dragon

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Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support
« Reply #1544 on: October 15, 2022, 03:21:43 pm »

I dunno, let's imagine that Trump wins next election with popular support somehow and makes himself presidente for life, invades mexico as rightful USian clay. And then loses.

Our hypothetical presidente deals with this situation by saying he never claimed that mexico is rightful USian clay, and furthermore we were only defeated by a cabal of sinister european woke globalist deep staters so please donate now to save america.
Does our hypothetical now majority trumpist american people dethrone him for this? I think not, their ideology is Trump. Blatant logical contradiction isn't enough to knock down that sort of leader.

Considering you're using someone who incited an attempted coup in response to losing as an example, you're not providing a very good example to try and prove the "Putin isn't unstable enough to do something that moronic" case here...
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