Bay 12 Games Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  
Pages: 1 ... 10 11 [12] 13 14 ... 138

Author Topic: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0  (Read 89280 times)

Strongpoint

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #165 on: March 22, 2023, 11:30:17 am »

Footage is emerging of tanks being hauled out of Russian storage and heading West.

T-54s - which entered production in 1946. The ones I've seen pictures of on trains look like fairly early models as well.

I doubt those will be used as frontline tanks, some kind of conversion or use as a (crappy) indirect-fire artillery is more likely. But you never know.

I expected to see T-72-level stuff imported from China or North Korea (also China) before this and it is really good news that we see none so far.
Logged
They ought to be pitied! They are already on a course for self-destruction! They do not need help from us. We need to redress our wounds, help our people, rebuild our cities!

Loud Whispers

  • Bay Watcher
  • They said we have to aim higher, so we dug deeper.
    • View Profile
    • I APPLAUD YOU SIRRAH
Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #166 on: March 22, 2023, 11:33:06 am »

I doubt those will be used as frontline tanks, some kind of conversion or use as a (crappy) indirect-fire artillery is more likely. But you never know.

I expected to see T-72-level stuff imported from China or North Korea (also China) before this and it is really good news that we see none so far.
From Russian military bloggers, there are already reports of tanks being used as indirect artillery, which is a problem because tank barrels wear out quickly when overused like this and they don't have enough replacement barrels, so their accuracy goes to shit over time. They also have this exact same problem for artillery barrels too; not enough barrels, too many shots fired, accuracy goes down - so more shots are needed to achieve even less, wearing out more barrels in a positive feedback loop that only makes Russia's logistics problems worse and worse

Strongpoint

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #167 on: March 22, 2023, 12:50:11 pm »

Artillery barrels are also a big problem on our side. General wear and tear is not a joke either.

But the largest problem is exhaustion. Many units got a year of constant combat with little to no rotation and it shows. Exhausted people make costly mistakes. Fresh units can't come soon enough.
Logged
They ought to be pitied! They are already on a course for self-destruction! They do not need help from us. We need to redress our wounds, help our people, rebuild our cities!

Strongpoint

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #168 on: March 23, 2023, 08:35:16 am »

The trade-off being that they're now going to be refurbished M1A1s instead of new M1A2s. And I still think 30ish tanks in autumn-winter, after what's likely to be the most important phase of the fighting, when you have thousands in storage - is a joke.
Abramses are much more political than a practical decision. Leopards are way better logistically speaking.

Also, Bradleys are already coming and I think those are far more needed on the frontline and those are coming, I heard rumors that some are already near the frontlines.
Logged
They ought to be pitied! They are already on a course for self-destruction! They do not need help from us. We need to redress our wounds, help our people, rebuild our cities!

Loud Whispers

  • Bay Watcher
  • They said we have to aim higher, so we dug deeper.
    • View Profile
    • I APPLAUD YOU SIRRAH
Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #169 on: March 25, 2023, 05:00:08 am »

Artillery barrels are also a big problem on our side. General wear and tear is not a joke either.

But the largest problem is exhaustion. Many units got a year of constant combat with little to no rotation and it shows. Exhausted people make costly mistakes. Fresh units can't come soon enough.
How much more manpower can Ukraine mobilise? I know the UK is training 20,000 for this year, USA 6,000 for this year and 30,000 for the Europeans this year. Those 56,000 will also fill key gaps of skills. Germans teaching Ukrainian mechanics how to repair the smorgasborg of vehicles they have, UK and Poland training Ukrainian fighter pilots and tank crew, US operators training how to use advanced NATO missile systems like patirot e.t.c. so that 56,000 will have a greater impact than the numbers may first suggest. But like you say, 56,000 is not enough to provide full troop rotation if the Russian high command continues to throw hundreds of thousands of poorly-equipped men into suicidal assaults

Abramses are much more political than a practical decision. Leopards are way better logistically speaking.

Also, Bradleys are already coming and I think those are far more needed on the frontline and those are coming, I heard rumors that some are already near the frontlines.
It's also better for Ukraine to rely on European tanks, at least until the next American election result is confirmed. The USA Republican party is starting to show some divides between the interventionists, the isolationists and the Russian friendly factions

Lord Shonus

  • Bay Watcher
  • Angle of Death
    • View Profile
Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #170 on: March 25, 2023, 05:07:59 am »

How much more manpower can Ukraine mobilise? I know the UK is training 20,000 for this year, USA 6,000 for this year and 30,000 for the Europeans this year. Those 56,000 will also fill key gaps of skills. Germans teaching Ukrainian mechanics how to repair the smorgasborg of vehicles they have, UK and Poland training Ukrainian fighter pilots and tank crew, US operators training how to use advanced NATO missile systems like patirot e.t.c. so that 56,000 will have a greater impact than the numbers may first suggest. But like you say, 56,000 is not enough to provide full troop rotation if the Russian high command continues to throw hundreds of thousands of poorly-equipped men into suicidal assaults

That's generally not how this kind of foreign aid works - you train the instructors who then train the people who are going to be going into combat. You wind up with a far greater number of trained personnel that way, because you're not throwing away the core training cadre.


Quote
It's also better for Ukraine to rely on European tanks, at least until the next American election result is confirmed. The USA Republican party is starting to show some divides between the interventionists, the isolationists and the Russian friendly factions

Don't put too much stock in this - the isolationists and the pro-Russia idiots (who are essentially the same people) are a mostly ignored minority. If somehow only Republicans were allowed to vote, you'd still be getting veto-proof majorities in favor of aiding Ukraine. This is the most united Americans have been on a foreign relations issue since 2001.
Logged
On Giant In the Playground and Something Awful I am Gnoman.
Man, ninja'd by a potentially inebriated Lord Shonus. I was gonna say to burn it.

Loud Whispers

  • Bay Watcher
  • They said we have to aim higher, so we dug deeper.
    • View Profile
    • I APPLAUD YOU SIRRAH
Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #171 on: March 25, 2023, 05:21:57 am »

That's generally not how this kind of foreign aid works - you train the instructors who then train the people who are going to be going into combat. You wind up with a far greater number of trained personnel that way, because you're not throwing away the core training cadre.
That's how it worked from 2014-2022 with Operation Orbital where the UK focused on training medical training, logistics, intelligence analysis and infantry training. But when the war broke out focus shifted away from training instructors & NCOs on generalist lines towards filling Ukraine's immediate skill gaps. The UK's successor program Operation Interflex as well as the American and Polish training efforts have focused on getting brigades of combined arms units trained with advanced western equipment as quickly as possible. Part of this is also important politically, as both Poland and UK have pushed for training Ukrainian fighter pilots, which is an obvious and necessary precursor to sending western jets to Ukraine as quickly as possible

LONDON — They come to the U.K. in their thousands — Ukrainians from every walk of life, in urgent need of military training to protect their homeland.
From lawyers to bricklayers, they are flown in from across Ukraine. The aim is to turn the new recruits into soldiers in just five weeks, providing basic military skills — infantry tactics; weapons handling; patroling; first aid; evacuation — before they return to fight on the frontline.
“We set a target of 10,000 troops — but through this pipeline, I envisage that we will continue to train as many as are sent by Ukraine,” he told the U.K. parliament last week. “We are already seeing this make a difference to the combat effectiveness of Ukraine.”

On the other side of the English Channel, the picture is very different.

France — western Europe’s other great military power — has decided against launching a mass training scheme of Ukrainian soldiers, an adviser to the French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu said, in line with French President Emmanuel Macron’s “wish to remain a ‘balancing power.’”

According to official French government figures, France has trained a grand total of 40 Ukrainian soldiers since the war began, chiefly on the use of French Caesar self-propelled guns.

“Emmanuel Macron was very clear — Ukraine will and must win, but Russia must not be humiliated,” the adviser said. “Our line is to show our solidarity with Ukraine to help her towards victory — but if not, to be able to play a role when the conflict stops.”
Of course Macron would -_-

Don't put too much stock in this - the isolationists and the pro-Russia idiots (who are essentially the same people) are a mostly ignored minority. If somehow only Republicans were allowed to vote, you'd still be getting veto-proof majorities in favor of aiding Ukraine. This is the most united Americans have been on a foreign relations issue since 2001.
I hope so. Polling does show that Republican and Democrat voters are still broadly united in supporting Ukraine, my worry is that if the Republicans won under someone like Trump, that even those Republicans in favour of supporting Ukraine would rather support their party than support their favoured foreign policy choice "rather be Russian than a democrat" mentality
« Last Edit: March 25, 2023, 05:24:24 am by Loud Whispers »
Logged

Strongpoint

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #172 on: March 25, 2023, 08:42:48 am »

How much more manpower can Ukraine mobilise? I know the UK is training 20,000 for this year, USA 6,000 for this year and 30,000 for the Europeans this year. Those 56,000 will also fill key gaps of skills. Germans teaching Ukrainian mechanics how to repair the smorgasborg of vehicles they have, UK and Poland training Ukrainian fighter pilots and tank crew, US operators training how to use advanced NATO missile systems like patirot e.t.c. so that 56,000 will have a greater impact than the numbers may first suggest. But like you say, 56,000 is not enough to provide full troop rotation if the Russian high command continues to throw hundreds of thousands of poorly-equipped men into suicidal assaults

It is hard to tell how deep our reserves are but this goes beyond guys who are training abroad. Some of the new units are armed exclusively with captured Russian\repaired Ukrainian\formerly Eastern European hardware and those are trained locally or in Eastern Europe with far more modest media coverage. Also, there are troops that stand in places like the Belarus border and some of the exhausted units may be moved there when\if the offensive start.
Logged
They ought to be pitied! They are already on a course for self-destruction! They do not need help from us. We need to redress our wounds, help our people, rebuild our cities!

Loud Whispers

  • Bay Watcher
  • They said we have to aim higher, so we dug deeper.
    • View Profile
    • I APPLAUD YOU SIRRAH
Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #173 on: March 25, 2023, 02:13:09 pm »

It is hard to tell how deep our reserves are but this goes beyond guys who are training abroad. Some of the new units are armed exclusively with captured Russian\repaired Ukrainian\formerly Eastern European hardware and those are trained locally or in Eastern Europe with far more modest media coverage. Also, there are troops that stand in places like the Belarus border and some of the exhausted units may be moved there when\if the offensive start.
I hope so. I remember some British troops noting very wryly in WWI that they got moved away from the brutal fighting in the western front to a more quiet part of the trenches. That segment of the trenches was quiet because the Germans were going to attack there next and wanted to give the false impression they had lost interest. Hopefully there'll be no northern attack in such case :P

I'm still also incredibly surprised at the Russian copium going on, with Russian hosts even responding to mockery of their T-54 desperation by saying yes indeed they would mobilise T-34 museum pieces if they had to. When do you stop and think "maybe we are embarking on a path of self-destruction?"

Also I looked up the maxim gun usage in Ukrainian lines and I think there is something very poetic about how this one machine gun has managed to see 140 years of combat against Russia, from the Russo-Japanese war all the way to its invasion of Ukraine. So I made a quick poem

Quote
From Nicholas to Stalin and Putin beyond
Great kings and dictators cast rocks at small ponds
Dreaming of Empires forever in sun
Woken by the chatter of the old maxim gun
It is my hope that Russia wakes up from its dreams of imperial conquest and instead learns how to look after her own people so that in 100 years time, the maxim gun can finally retire

Strongpoint

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #174 on: March 25, 2023, 02:45:05 pm »

Quote
I'm still also incredibly surprised at the Russian copium going on, with Russian hosts even responding to mockery of their T-54 desperation by saying yes indeed they would mobilise T-34 museum pieces if they had to. When do you stop and think "maybe we are embarking on a path of self-destruction?"

Germany of late 1944 and early 1945 tells us that copium can continue till the bitter end. And this is why I think that this war will continue for many years because Russia doesn't even face any danger of being counterinvaded. There will be no forces to surround Moscow and assault it to force surrender...
Logged
They ought to be pitied! They are already on a course for self-destruction! They do not need help from us. We need to redress our wounds, help our people, rebuild our cities!

Telgin

  • Bay Watcher
  • Professional Programmer
    • View Profile
Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #175 on: March 25, 2023, 03:04:53 pm »

That's something I worry about too.  There has to be a breaking point even without that, but it's not at all clear to me where that is.

People keep throwing around the adage that manpower is cheap to Russia, and it's starting to seem that's true.  Again, there's an absolute limit on how many people they can waste.  I expect that Russian society would protest well before they literally get to the point that they can't get more people to throw at the war, but at what point?  250,000 KIA?  1,000,000?  More?  At what point does the future economic damage dissuade them if not the human cost?

Unless something drastic happens, like Putin dying and that miraculously leading to the new leadership calling everything off, I don't see this ending in the next few years.
Logged
Through pain, I find wisdom.

Strongpoint

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #176 on: March 25, 2023, 03:22:10 pm »

Russian Empire in WW1 needed around 1M KIA but I think modern Russia is far more docile than that one so... 2M? Which sounds like never.
Logged
They ought to be pitied! They are already on a course for self-destruction! They do not need help from us. We need to redress our wounds, help our people, rebuild our cities!

Eric Blank

  • Bay Watcher
  • *Remain calm*
    • View Profile
Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #177 on: March 25, 2023, 08:08:45 pm »

Ukraine will need more tanks and aircraft and troops. And ships. Need to take out the black sea fleet so Russia can't cut them off from the sea or protect Crimea from a counterinvasion
Logged
I make Spellcrafts!
I have no idea where anything is. I have no idea what anything does. This is not merely a madhouse designed by a madman, but a madhouse designed by many madmen, each with an intense hatred for the previous madman's unique flavour of madness.

ChairmanPoo

  • Bay Watcher
  • Send in the clowns
    • View Profile
Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #178 on: March 25, 2023, 10:57:13 pm »

Here's a q: will a bank collapse lead to faltering EU support?
Logged
There's two kinds of performance reviews: the one you make they don't read, the one they make whilst they sharpen their daggers
Everyone sucks at everything. Until they don't. Not sucking is a product of time invested.

EuchreJack

  • Bay Watcher
  • Lord of Norderland - Lv 20 SKOOKUM ROC
    • View Profile
Re: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Trollbait 2.0
« Reply #179 on: March 25, 2023, 11:06:35 pm »

Here's a q: will a bank collapse lead to faltering EU support?
Probably, but then again most anything bad will lead to faltering EU/US support.
Pro-Russian zombies will use literally anything to lower support.
Pages: 1 ... 10 11 [12] 13 14 ... 138