Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[EuchreJack]

Ukraine lost the case against Russia in ICJ. I am so surprised (not)

Actually, Ukraine kinda won.

[Strongpoint]

Defense Intelligence of Ukraine reported that they eliminated that some random thugs shot a Russian war criminal, pilot of a Tu-95 bomber who lobbed cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities.

I am deeply worried that Russia has such problems with violent crime. I hope that other Russian pilots will live in fear be more careful from now on.

[Strongpoint]

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

[Il Palazzo]

Yeah, I've got my popcorn ready. Tucker Carlson. What a champ for free speech. Fair and balanced. Both sides deserve to be heard.
You think they're supplying our buddy Tucker with a body double and a script, or will the genuine article drag his arse out of his bunker?

[Strongpoint]

The president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has made changes to the laws that govern the country's armed forces, to grant servicemen the authority to use “firearms, special equipment, combat, and other equipment” when performing their duties, as reported by the Belarusian service of Radio Liberty.

According to the document, the use of weapons against citizens is permitted even in cases that only involve administrative offenses.

The new amendments specify that servicemen will not be held accountable for damages resulting from shootings conducted “in accordance with joint military statutes.”
____________

This one is very worrisome for me. Belarus is stable and has a massive police force to deal with any protests. Why would Lukashenko do this then? My answer is that he is planning to do something so outrageously unpopular that unrest is guaranteed. This means either
A) Belarus will join the war
B) A huge chunk of sovereignty will be given up to Russia, up to full annexation.

[anewaname]

Has there been protests within Belarus against the the Russia-Ukraine war (that were allowed to continue)? Is there any sort of mutual military agreements between Belarus and Russia, where “in accordance with joint military statutes" might apply?

[Telgin]

That is pretty concerning, though my very, very distant understanding of Belarus's situation was that it was already fairly unstable with most people strongly disapproving of Lukashenko.  Maybe he sees the writing on the wall for reasons we don't know.

But it does seem at least somewhat plausible that Russia will try to annex Belarus or force them into the war.  Both of those would probably set off a lot of trouble, but I'm not going to pretend to rub my crystal ball and guess what the results would mean for Ukraine.  I could see it going either way, with Belarus devolving into civil war that distracts more from Russia's ability to fight, or them opening a new front of dubious capability.

[KittyTac]

Russia does fight for traditional values! The thing is, I want traditional values to be stomped on, set on fire, and thrown into a woodchipper.

I am a woke, LGBT western agent menace to Russian society who has not just zero but negative respect for my ancestors and my homeland's culture, history, and values.

[Laterigrade]

Ukraine lost the case against Russia in ICJ. I am so surprised (not)

Actually, Ukraine kinda won.

In what way?

[Starver]

(On Belarus shenanigans...)

I'm minded that that's where elements of Wagner were sent (at least initially), immediately following the coup-that-wasn't. Not recently hearing much about the fate of those bits (though there were ones that we de-/re-stabilising bits of Africa, etc), I can only guess on which side of the equation they're to be found righf now... But it occured to me that if they're not already dealt with (or 'dealt with'), in the general post-Prigozhin process of reassessment, then they might factor into this kind of powerplay. Willingly or otherwise.

(Someone will tell me that they're all now fully filtered into whatever present role they individually might have, whether fighting force or farm fertiliser. Or both, in the case of the latest Storm V units, now with lower degrees of short-term amnesty... But there's not been a recent reminder/update on my usual newswires, so I'm just working off the last relevent reports I'm prompted to remember.)

[scriver]

The president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has made changes to the laws that govern the country's armed forces, to grant servicemen the authority to use “firearms, special equipment, combat, and other equipment” when performing their duties, as reported by the Belarusian service of Radio Liberty.

According to the document, the use of weapons against citizens is permitted even in cases that only involve administrative offenses.

The new amendments specify that servicemen will not be held accountable for damages resulting from shootings conducted “in accordance with joint military statutes.”
____________

This one is very worrisome for me. Belarus is stable and has a massive police force to deal with any protests. Why would Lukashenko do this then? My answer is that he is planning to do something so outrageously unpopular that unrest is guaranteed. This means either
A) Belarus will join the war
B) A huge chunk of sovereignty will be given up to Russia, up to full annexation.

C) Lukashenko launches a hostile takeover of Russia

I mean OK not that likely but

[Strongpoint]

Russian cruise missiles do a LOUD boom when they blow up in the sky near your home.

[Strongpoint]

Zelensky dismissed commander-in-chief Zaluzhny who was very popular and replaced him with a guy who is quite unpopular (especially in the army) but politically loyal to Zelensky.

Freaking wonderful. Just what we need during this stage of the war.

[Telgin]

I feel like there has to be more to the story than just that, but that's all I've picked up from news headlines myself.  We'll probably never know the full details.

[Strongpoint]

Yeah, it is hard to tell for sure.

I also have no idea if Syrsky is a good commander or not, I heard mixed opinions on that. But this decision is VERY unpopular, this one I am sure about. It doesn't help already low morale.