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Author Topic: American Election Megathread - It's Over  (Read 696256 times)

Trollheiming

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10650 on: January 05, 2013, 09:28:54 pm »

1) Your 20% of GDP aren't only income tax either. It's mostly corporate tax, income tax and payroll tax but mixed with a bunch of other things. So please apply the same standard to your numbers that you apply to mine.

I'm aware of that. I have always said tax revenues, not income tax revenues. What's the problem?

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2) See above. It's not only income tax, but a whole loads of tax put together. My guess would be it's because people and corporation and stuff earn more and move in higher tax brackets. I must say it seemed much more evident then, dunno why.

My guess was that people simply report more hidden income, and take fewer legal tax deductions than they could have, because they're flush with money and not counting nickels and dimes like a recession. When I get a big paycheck, I splurge and don't care if I could have saved a little here and a little there. 

Now, if it is simply moving into higher tax brackets, then tax rates matter. If tax rates matter, then the tax raises in 1990 and 1993 probably spiked the revenues for those years in your own helpful little charts that isolate income taxes from other tax revenues. Oh! No sudden spike in either of those years. The nominal income tax rate simply didn't matter in 1990 and 1993. You're basing your guess on something that your data says didn't matter in a different situation. 

I'll give you the point that your guess makes sense if you actually think the rates set on tax brackets matter. But it doesn't in your own graphs.

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3) Since you suddenly seemed to understnad the difference between % of GDP and obsolute revenue, why did you claim several time that a reduction in output would lower revenue as a percentage of GDP? It would lower GDP alright, but that's it.

Because it does. Look at the graphs. Look at your own graphs. In 2007, the income and corporate taxes were a higher percentage of GDP than the next year on your graph. GDP is another word for output, btw.


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4) Your graph witht the 20% stuff is pure, refined shit. It's an aggreggate of revenue that you compare to the top tax rate, which is paid by a tiny % of household. It actually be surprising if there was any correlation.

You're spitting all of this at me as though I didn't say it was the top tax-rate all along, and you've suddenly discovered something sneaky. Why the venom now? Pure shit why? Because you say so? I don't feel like making graphs. The top tax rates is indicative enough of overall tax policy. Putting all the brackets would be messy and serve no real point. If you know the tax bills in question, like EGTTRA in 2001, the top tax-rate is generally moving in the same direction as other brackets.

You're the one that wants these useless graphs that actually wouldn't prove you a bit more right. So go ahead.

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Now, let's use some real data.

The chart I showed used the data from total receipts, which is in a column right next to the income and corporate data that you've used here. You've basically said that if my total revenues are fake, your two graphs here are from the same "fake" government source.


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Corporate revenues. They've been freefalling since the 40's. That's money we can tax. And don't get me started on the carbon tax.

GDP is a single pie. Corporate tax revenues went down, but other revenues filled them in. The total revenues stayed approximately the same, despite wide swings in constituent parts of the whole. What does that tell you about the connected nature of these things? Corporations are just people and goods. Taxing corporations is taxing the people in those corporations. You can do it, sure, but don't look at it as a whole new way to generate tax that isn't taking money from the same people as the income taxes were.  ::)
 
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P.S. If you want to redo your graph with the rate and income properly, here are all the tax rates for all the bracket since 1913. Have fun!

Seems to me that you're the one who wants that drudgery. That means that you do it. I think the top rate is illustrative enough of overall tax policy. Besides, I heard from Obama that taxing only the rich was a viable strategy, so the top rate has to be a huge chunk of the whole!


We need prosperity. Prosperity sets the percentage.

And this is what I don't get.  We have prosperity.  We have shitloads of resources going to waste.  Necessary stuff like food and shelter.  We have at least 3x more empty homes than homeless people.  How is that not prosperity?  But apparently we have to be prosperous before we can be prosperous?

Those are the remnants of a past prosperity. We tax new income and new gains, not accumulated old wealth. There are a lot of empty houses, true, but how many of those houses were made this year? That's why you won't get taxes from them.

If a resource is going to waste, that's an indication that there is a lack of prosperity, actually. Prosperity is when resources are allocated to the places where they're needed and valued. You could also live in a cabin above the largest oil reserves ever found. You'd be poor, and the oil would exist in an unused state. The oil doesn't create prosperity until it's being extracted and used by people that know how to use it.

I suppose you could let the homeless use these homes, but then giving the homes away for free incurs some problems. For one, how do you know that the homes are being given to owners that value them? There are some projects in the inner cities that looked pretty decent when they first were built... but the occupants had no sense of the value that they were being given for free.

More importantly for the rest of us, the reaon why homeless people don't have those homes is that it would cause huge losses to banks if foreclosed homes evaluated at a certain worth on their balance sheets suddenly were distributed to homeless people for much less than appraised. When the balance sheet contracts, banks have less to lend out to other home-buyers and business-owners, fewer businesses can start up or expand their operations, fewer jobs and fewer taxes and less production. In short, if the banks are forced to sell the homes for less, the economy tanks even worse. Banks have garnered quite a bit of bad press, and mistakes were defintely made, but they still serve essential functions that support the economy.

Additionally, let's not forget that many homeless people have trouble functioning in society. Saddling them with a house in which they'd need to do household repairs and pay the electric bills, etc., would probably be worse than giving them care in a more structured environment.

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Eagle_eye

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10651 on: January 05, 2013, 10:59:30 pm »

And so you seize all the bank's assets, outlaw private banking, set up a government bank that might actually lend responsibly, and give the uninhabited houses away.

Then again, that will never happen. But as it stands, banks are barely lending at all. Losing money on homes isn't going to make them lend less, because they're really only making incredibly secure loans at the moment right now anyway. After all, why risk the money when they could instead buy US treasury bonds with their interest free bailout money, and collect free of risk?
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Sheb

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10652 on: January 06, 2013, 05:05:44 am »

Okay. I give up. If you hark about how many states have no income tax at all so we can't take care of that data then fallback on your data being a mix of stuff, and if you don't see the inherent stupidity of comparing top income tax bracket to the revenue brought by a whole lots of different taxes, I don't really see the point in arguing with you anymore. We're not on the same planet.
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Trollheiming

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10653 on: January 06, 2013, 12:22:17 pm »

And so you seize all the bank's assets, outlaw private banking, set up a government bank that might actually lend responsibly, and give the uninhabited houses away.

It's hard to imagine why government banks would lend more responsibly, particular when political elites are already incredibly incestous with banking elites. If you gave Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi the mandate to create a government bank for the people, I guarantee you a Goldman-Sachs operative gets the nod.  :P

And really, China has state-owned banks, and I can't find where it helps the poor. I still manage to walk past at least four homeless people per a city block here.


Okay. I give up. If you hark about how many states have no income tax at all so we can't take care of that data then fallback on your data being a mix of stuff, and if you don't see the inherent stupidity of comparing top income tax bracket to the revenue brought by a whole lots of different taxes, I don't really see the point in arguing with you anymore. We're not on the same planet.

Give up? I've never felt that you were actually trying to understand, so nothing has really changed, has it? You wanted to find a way logically to dismiss the facts in the data before your eyes, but that didn't work; so now you amusingly dismiss the federal tax data itself as irrelevent. And that's absurd. By your logic, if total tax revenue is meaningless, then GDP is also meaningless because it's an aggregate of oh so very many different sectors of the economy. Your quibbles and attempts to dismiss total tax revenue data really are that ludicrous and transparent.

In future, you are barred from ever mentioning GDP, because we all know that you don't believe GDP is valid. Have fun on Jupiter. :D
« Last Edit: January 06, 2013, 01:18:51 pm by Trollheiming »
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Sheb

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10654 on: January 06, 2013, 12:40:58 pm »

No, the problem is not that you take an aggregate, is that you take an aggregate, compare it to the top tax rate of one of it's constituent and then conclude taxes have no effect on revenues. Also you specifically choose your aggregate to suit your view.

It's like if I took GDP growth, compared it to sales taxes on cookies, and concluded that taxes have no impact on GDP.
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Trollheiming

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10655 on: January 06, 2013, 01:13:09 pm »

No, the problem is not that you take an aggregate, is that you take an aggregate, compare it to the top tax rate of one of it's constituent and then conclude taxes have no effect on revenues. Also you specifically choose your aggregate to suit your view.

It's like if I took GDP growth, compared it to sales taxes on cookies, and concluded that taxes have no impact on GDP.

I reject that analogy, actually, because the proposed analogues don't match. Top rates are not to cookie sale taxes, as total revenues are to GDP. I think you know that.

I'm open to seeing how top rates don't match similar tax policy into other brackets. Do you claim that top rates aren't moving in the same directions as other brackets? They seem to be moving together in the same directions to me, but averaging them into a single curve is more footwork than I care to do.

Regarding corporate taxes, nominally, those rates are the highest rates in the world. That's why we get so little revenue from them. The higher the tax rate, the more incentive to avoid it.

That's a key reality check when discussing taxes. People don't mindlessly pay the set rate. When we started, you said that governments could set taxes at 100% of production and they would get 100% of production, even if that production was lower as a result. Then I showed you an article about the Soviet black markets. They were trying to get 100% of production, and the black markets became the real economy of the USSR.  Do you still think that 100% of production can be captured by the state?

I'd say only 60% or so, even in countries trying to get 100%. Nordic countries are hitting the limits right now.
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Aqizzar

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10656 on: January 06, 2013, 03:25:37 pm »

Regarding corporate taxes, nominally, those rates are the highest rates in the world. That's why we get so little revenue from them. The higher the tax rate, the more incentive to avoid it.

That's a key reality check when discussing taxes. People don't mindlessly pay the set rate. When we started, you said that governments could set taxes at 100% of production and they would get 100% of production, even if that production was lower as a result. Then I showed you an article about the Soviet black markets. They were trying to get 100% of production, and the black markets became the real economy of the USSR.  Do you still think that 100% of production can be captured by the state?

I'd say only 60% or so, even in countries trying to get 100%. Nordic countries are hitting the limits right now.

It's statements like this that make it really hard to follow what you even think you're arguing about.  Especially the corporate tax: "The higher the tax rate, the more incentive to avoid it."  You make it sound like there's some effective corporate tax rate where businesses will go "well it's not really worth the effort to find all the possible deductions and money shuffling needed to avoid it, so we'll just pay the set rate".  Entities that can afford to the proper accounting will always attempt to avoid every expense possible.

You make it sound like the nominal tax rate (which no corporation in America actually pays) being high causes low revenue, and that perhaps lowering it would raise the revenue (which of course would only work if it were less expensive to pay the tax than hiring accountants).  You might be interested to hear that the real world cause of America's very low corporate tax revenue despite having one of the highest nominal rates in the world is not some vague 'black market' nonsense, but that the corporate tax structure has so many rebates and incentives that almost two-thirds of American companies pay effectively no corporate taxes, and quite a few (namely oil companies) qualify for so many rebates that they actually earn money back from the IRS.

Not to the mention that so much effective taxable income is not unreported but rather that the taxes on it go unenforced, because the IRS is so underbudget and understaffed (no really) that they have to adopt a policy of only pursuing issues that can't be caught by a computer.  Interesting fact: Every dollar spent to fund the IRS translates into ten dollars of revenue.  Coincidentally or not, almost every Republican budget proposed for the last thirty years has called for cutting IRS funding, since that's one part of the government that everyone outside of policy wonks loves to hear getting the screws.
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SalmonGod

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10657 on: January 06, 2013, 10:41:54 pm »

Those are the remnants of a past prosperity. We tax new income and new gains, not accumulated old wealth. There are a lot of empty houses, true, but how many of those houses were made this year? That's why you won't get taxes from them.

They're only remnants in relation to the number game.  In terms of real stuff, it's still current prosperity.

If a resource is going to waste, that's an indication that there is a lack of prosperity, actually. Prosperity is when resources are allocated to the places where they're needed and valued. You could also live in a cabin above the largest oil reserves ever found. You'd be poor, and the oil would exist in an unused state. The oil doesn't create prosperity until it's being extracted and used by people that know how to use it.

If the only thing denying a population prosperity is improper allocation of resources, then why am I wrong for criticizing the system we rely on to allocate resources?

I suppose you could let the homeless use these homes, but then giving the homes away for free incurs some problems. For one, how do you know that the homes are being given to owners that value them? There are some projects in the inner cities that looked pretty decent when they first were built... but the occupants had no sense of the value that they were being given for free.

That's because value is relative.  The people occupying a house might not care as much about what it looks like so much as they care about the fact that they have a house to live in.  Your perspective on the value of another person's stuff is different from their own.

More importantly for the rest of us, the reaon why homeless people don't have those homes is that it would cause huge losses to banks if foreclosed homes evaluated at a certain worth on their balance sheets suddenly were distributed to homeless people for much less than appraised. When the balance sheet contracts, banks have less to lend out to other home-buyers and business-owners, fewer businesses can start up or expand their operations, fewer jobs and fewer taxes and less production. In short, if the banks are forced to sell the homes for less, the economy tanks even worse. Banks have garnered quite a bit of bad press, and mistakes were defintely made, but they still serve essential functions that support the economy.

"We need the number game, because it's how we allocate resources.  We can't allocate resources because it fucks up the number game."

Additionally, let's not forget that many homeless people have trouble functioning in society. Saddling them with a house in which they'd need to do household repairs and pay the electric bills, etc., would probably be worse than giving them care in a more structured environment.

There's some truth to this, but there's also a lot of stereotyping and ignoring side-issues.  I agree with you that people who have trouble functioning in society should be provided structured helpful environments.  However, that's a pure social project requiring large amounts of public investment.  I would also disagree that such people make up a majority of homeless under current economic conditions.  Even given the premise that the homeless are worthless to society and deserve not a single fuck, what's the justification for homeless children, who are completely blameless for their situation?
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Trollheiming

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10658 on: January 07, 2013, 08:51:51 am »

They were trying to get 100% of production, and the black markets became the real economy of the USSR.
You make it sound like the nominal tax rate (which no corporation in America actually pays) being high causes low revenue, and that perhaps lowering it would raise the revenue (which of course would only work if it were less expensive to pay the tax than hiring accountants).  You might be interested to hear that the real world cause of America's very low corporate tax revenue despite having one of the highest nominal rates in the world is not some vague 'black market' nonsense, but that the corporate tax structure has so many rebates and incentives that almost two-thirds of American companies pay effectively no corporate taxes, and quite a few (namely oil companies) qualify for so many rebates that they actually earn money back from the IRS.

The black market is not vague. It happened in the USSR, and it is happening in Greece. I distinctly said that black markets occur after a certain threshold in tax rates, and most modern countries aren't there yet. The goal was to force Sheb to own up that 100% of GDP is not obtainable in taxes, but he has said exactly that before. If nothing else, I would like to accomplish making others here see the tax system as more organic and less mechanical. We're used to playing video games where we set the tax slider to 100% and get 100%, then crush whatever rebellions occur. In fact, if you set the tax to 100% in real life, your system becomes a joke and people develop their own underground economy. Tax rebellions can occur, but it's more common to simply ignore illegitimately high taxes. Endemically ignore. Corruption becomes cultural and is sustained even after the system changes. In Russia and in China, two places where there used to be a 100% tax, to little surprise, a strong ethos of corruption prevails even after their markets have liberalized!

America is far from 100% tax, so we're far from having a strong underground economy or a culture of gleeful corruption. Other than drugs. Punitive cigarette taxes have created a healthy black market production there, to name but one. Yet, where taxes are only moderately high, the risks aren't worth it. However, we do have a variety of gray options in the legal economy; and the higher the taxes, the more people avail themselves of gray options. You can underreport, you can report and then make improper deductions, etc. Outright non-payment probably pales in comparison to little fudged numbers here and there.

The difference between 35% and 39% tax rates seems small to us, but there's a marginal tax-payer somewhere, sitting on his ill-gotten gains, and thinking "Sure, 35% is tough but fair... but 39%... I'm just not feeling it. Time to hide some of this stuff." These marginal cases add up, the higher the tax rates are pushed. Each percentage is another few thousand marginal cases pushed over the edge. And often the underreporting is so small that enforcement would be more expensive than the recovered revenue.

Corporate taxes. Difficult issue. Corporate taxes are lower because of incentives and rebates, but also unreported and misreported profits as well. In particular, companies can record profits from high-tax countries in lower-tax countries. This use of tax shelters shouldn't be discounted as small. There's a risk that it could be discovered and enforced, but the risk in penalties and legal fees is lower than the tax.

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Interesting fact: Every dollar spent to fund the IRS translates into ten dollars of revenue.  Coincidentally or not, almost every Republican budget proposed for the last thirty years has called for cutting IRS funding, since that's one part of the government that everyone outside of policy wonks loves to hear getting the screws.
I think $12 billion is enough to get the job done. Any private organization other than Apple would do flips if their budgets were $12 billion. And almost half is alloted to enforcement. Big Brother is plenty fat. Any extra funding is going to hit diminishing returns. If you have a $100k a year IRS agent burning a small businessman under his magnifying glass for a $1000 improper deduction, that's a waste of time.



There are a lot of empty houses, true, but how many of those houses were made this year?
They're only remnants in relation to the number game.  In terms of real stuff, it's still current prosperity.
Actually, most of them need repairs. Mold has infected large numbers of vacant houses. When homes aren't heated and air doesn't circulate, that happens. About $5000 per a house to treat this. Old prosperity deteriorates rapidly, especially unused.


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If the only thing denying a population prosperity is improper allocation of resources, then why am I wrong for criticizing the system we rely on to allocate resources?
Firstly, our present system is partly what you desire. We do try to give houses to poor people. We call them subprime mortgages. You can hate that it collapsed, but recognize that the present system was trying to do as you wanted. And maybe that's why the resources were misallocated in the Housing Bubble. Those people needed homes, sure, but some of those foreclosed houses are pretty big, and required a lot of construction. Maybe the people in those foreclosed McMansions didn't need houses quite that big, requiring quite that many raw resources in their construction? Resources were being allocated to recipients who couldn't reciprocate similar production levels. Because of interference.

So now, keeping in mind that the numbers game is already rigged and unnatural, it does need changes, and changes will happen in a decade or two. Possibly huge changes. Possibly what we least should desire! Criticize, by all means.The only part truly wrong with your present critique is a lack of an explanation how a new system works better, how a select few elites wouldn't easily subvert it as usual, and how the transition could be made smoothly without the butchery and famines the last time capitalism was radically overhauled.


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the inner cities ... occupants had no sense of the value that they were being given for free.
That's because value is relative.  The people occupying a house might not care as much about what it looks like so much as they care about the fact that they have a house to live in.  Your perspective on the value of another person's stuff is different from their own.
Value is relative. True. However, there is bound to be a time when you want your stuff to be someone else's stuff, so the opinions of other people still matter. Sane people respectful of their own and others' property tend to like clean environments. They shop for houses in as good a neighborhood as they can budget. Run-down neighborhoods are home to some of these people who are down on their luck, but also to some other less functioning people who simply don't care about their own property... or about yours... or even about whether yours isn't theirs. And that's called burglary and mugging!

As an irrevelant personal aside, just frigging yesterday, my wife and I were walking down the street and a motorcycle mugger grabbed her purse and dragged her about 20 feet. She held on, and after a shocked pause, I ran at the mugger, so he fled. Feel my pain, please.  :(


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"We need the number game, because it's how we allocate resources.  We can't allocate resources because it fucks up the number game."
Yep. Those resources were spent on houses because we artificially subverted the numbers game to give less-productive people the means to order their construction. Without subprime mortgages, those houses wouldn't be there, at least not that large a house that required that many construction materials and that many construction workers to build. To own something, I have to produce something else and get some roughly equivalent numbers in my wallet.

Not to say a pure classically liberal economy is a perfect utopia--life is full of shit, and you have to eat it--but what I am saying is that you can't pin every single failing of the present system 100% squarely on the pure numbers. We've got a lot of people bending and fudging the numbers behind the scenes.   


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what's the justification for homeless children, who are completely blameless for their situation?
I'd hope that there aren't too many of those. Foster care is hardly a blessing, but it's better than the street, right?
« Last Edit: January 07, 2013, 09:02:02 am by Trollheiming »
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10659 on: January 07, 2013, 09:21:48 am »

This thread has become so full of derp, it might be time to put it out to pasture. By which I mean, take it around behind the barn and give it the Ol' Yeller treatment. Single slug, right between the eyes. She won't feel a thing.

She's been a good thread, but she's gotten a bit long in the tooth, and now she's starting to foam at the mouth.
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Darvi

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10660 on: January 07, 2013, 09:27:53 am »

No, not Elly! D:

Or is she called Amy? I'm not sure about that.
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Trollheiming

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10661 on: January 07, 2013, 09:54:01 am »

This thread has become so full of derp, it might be time to put it out to pasture. By which I mean, take it around behind the barn and give it the Ol' Yeller treatment. Single slug, right between the eyes. She won't feel a thing.

She's been a good thread, but she's gotten a bit long in the tooth, and now she's starting to foam at the mouth.

I'm about ready to call it quits anyway. I still don't see the derp in claiming that America has a 20% ceiling in the amount of GDP to tax revenues. GDP is the whole pie from which taxes are cut. 20% GDP is from 85 years of data under various tax policies that varied all tax brackets and in which Americans used to pay higher rates, top and median incomes, than now. QED.

Don't blame me when your boys failed to explain why higher tax rates were going to work this time.
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10662 on: January 07, 2013, 10:34:30 am »

I don't have "boys". (Well, I do have one, but I don't think you can fault a 2-year old for not satisfactorily explaining macroeconomic tax policy).
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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10663 on: January 07, 2013, 11:48:58 am »

"Sure, 35% is tough but fair... but 39%... I'm just not feeling it. Time to hide some of this stuff."
I'll take "things that nobody in the history of the world has ever said" for $200, please.
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Trollheiming

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Re: American Election Megathread - It's Over
« Reply #10664 on: January 07, 2013, 12:23:33 pm »

"Sure, 35% is tough but fair... but 39%... I'm just not feeling it. Time to hide some of this stuff."
I'll take "things that nobody in the history of the world has ever said" for $200, please.

Fair enough, but you're being far too literal.
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