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Author Topic: American Election Megathread - It's Over  (Read 402036 times)

kaijyuu

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #3585 on: May 22, 2012, 05:39:33 pm »

It started when Japan started dominating the car industry, iirc.
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For, in order that men should resist injustice, something more is necessary than that they should think injustice unpleasant. They must think injustice absurd; above all, they must think it startling. They must retain the violence of a virgin astonishment. When the pessimist looks at any infamy, it is to him, after all, only a repetition of the infamy of existence. But the optimist sees injustice as something discordant and unexpected, and it stings him into action.

penguinofhonor

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #3586 on: May 22, 2012, 05:41:55 pm »

Remember how back in the nineties all the economists were saying that Japan would be an unstoppable industrial powerhouse that would control the global economy like they say China will now, but then Japan's population started to collapse?

I don't remember that because I was three, but I read about it later. You, on the other hand, have no excuse.

Oh yeah, I remember that. Man, that was a silly prediction, wasn't it? I haven't thought about it for over a decade.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #3587 on: May 22, 2012, 05:53:05 pm »

By the way, just so I can get the jump on the economists again, China will also fail to become an unstoppable industrial powerhouse when the first waves of really old people start relying on Chinese state healthcare and from the social strife of the younger Chinese demanding greater rights. Said rights will have to be granted by the PRC eventually, the only question is how many provinces they lose, Soviet Union style, before they realize it. My money is actually not on Tibet going first, because the PRC has crushed rebellion there fairly effectively.

As for healthcare, if you think Medicare is a financial problem, you haven't seen anything yet. There will probably be more elderly Chinese on state healthcare in a few decades then there are people in any given U.S. state, and maybe even the U.S. as a whole someday. It helps that, given Chinese culture, the elderly are one of the few groups that probably can't be effectively marginalized by the government.

tl:dr China is going down, the only question is how far they'll fall.
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Zrk2

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #3588 on: May 22, 2012, 07:35:55 pm »

I think the rising sun fear dates back to the 80s not 90s.

Yeah, there was that movie with Mr. McClane an' stuff.
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cainiao

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #3589 on: May 23, 2012, 07:30:02 am »

By the way, just so I can get the jump on the economists again, China will also fail to become an unstoppable industrial powerhouse when the first waves of really old people start relying on Chinese state healthcare and from the social strife of the younger Chinese demanding greater rights. Said rights will have to be granted by the PRC eventually, the only question is how many provinces they lose, Soviet Union style, before they realize it. My money is actually not on Tibet going first, because the PRC has crushed rebellion there fairly effectively.

As for healthcare, if you think Medicare is a financial problem, you haven't seen anything yet. There will probably be more elderly Chinese on state healthcare in a few decades then there are people in any given U.S. state, and maybe even the U.S. as a whole someday. It helps that, given Chinese culture, the elderly are one of the few groups that probably can't be effectively marginalized by the government.

tl:dr China is going down, the only question is how far they'll fall.

State healthcare only built up in recent years in China, most of the people still rely on their children rather than the government to cover their healthcare.

Aging would be a serious problem due to One Child policy, however the government have realize the problem and taking measures,lifting one child ban, shifting manufacture in to hinterland and pouring money into R&D.
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RedKing

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #3590 on: May 23, 2012, 07:39:47 am »

We were terrified of Japan?? I must have missed that part.
Remember how back in the nineties all the economists were saying that Japan would be an unstoppable industrial powerhouse that would control the global economy like they say China will now, but then Japan's population started to collapse?

I don't remember that because I was three, but I read about it later. You, on the other hand, have no excuse.
Right false prediction, wrong decade (most of the "OMG we're all gonna work for the Japanese" stuff was late 80's). Japan was already in stagflation by 1992.

With that in mind, China's economic planners are well aware of history and trying to discourage the kind of profligate spending that helped damage Japan's economy (like when Japanese investors bought ridiculously overpriced real estate, built rooftop golf courses in Yokohama, were buying luxury SUVs like they were candy, etc.) They can't control it 100%, but they can tamp down the biggest excesses.

I know you're a pessimist on China's future, MSH. Just like I'm a cautious optimist.
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mainiac

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #3591 on: May 23, 2012, 10:53:17 am »

While China has a bit of a demographic problem, people tend to make more of it then there is.  For instance it's much less severe then Japan and I don't think anyone expects Japan to head into civil disorder.  It's much less severe then Italy and people tend not to list that among Italy's top problems.  What's much more pressing for China is that they've already plucked the low hanging fruit of industrialization and globalization.  They're running out of low productivity farmers to shift into factories.  That means the rate of growth is going to slow.  But it also means that bargaining power of workers is going to rise and those rising wages will help solve many of their problems.  Civil strife is possible but mostly because they are an autocratic regime and that happens in autocratic regimes, not because they are in some dire situation.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #3592 on: May 23, 2012, 05:13:48 pm »

I know you're a pessimist on China's future, MSH. Just like I'm a cautious optimist.
I'm a pessimist on the future of the PRC state. China as a nation, on the other hand, will see great improvements.
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Mictlantecuhtli

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #3593 on: May 23, 2012, 05:15:46 pm »

Adorable, right? I know it's probably just to get good PR in the face of all his negative ad campaigning, but this is still ridiculously humble and a sign we still have a human as a president. Also, first instance I've seen of Obama saying 'dude.'
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Twi

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #3594 on: May 23, 2012, 05:32:49 pm »

Also, first instance I've seen of Obama saying 'dude.'
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Zrk2

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #3595 on: May 23, 2012, 05:46:03 pm »

Adorable, right? I know it's probably just to get good PR in the face of all his negative ad campaigning, but this is still ridiculously humble and a sign we still have a human as a president. Also, first instance I've seen of Obama saying 'dude.'

I think that's something of an overstatement.
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Mictlantecuhtli

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #3596 on: May 23, 2012, 05:49:58 pm »

I think that's something of an overstatement.

Eh, think what you will, I don't really care. It's a good sign when your president doesn't think he's above such things.
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Euld

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #3597 on: May 24, 2012, 09:41:53 am »

So apparently Mitt Romney looks like someone.  Someone very... evil.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
« Last Edit: May 24, 2012, 01:09:25 pm by Euld »
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PTTG??

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #3598 on: May 24, 2012, 12:34:25 pm »

He's just keeping up with the Cardassians.
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Sirus

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Re: American Election Megathread
« Reply #3599 on: May 24, 2012, 12:37:42 pm »

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