You can't handle the truth!
And please tell me we aren't seeing a Romney surge based on pure, unadulterated, bullshit?
Is there any other kind? There's not really a surge. What you're seeing is primarily stoichastic noise and media outlets making a big story out of the outlier polls. For instance new Gallup poll shows Romney with a 4-point lead in national polling. But the aggregate average is somewhere between a tie and a tiny lead for Obama, depending on how you weight the polls.
And as we were just discussing, national polls are mostly irrelevant to the final victory, as it comes down to state-level polling to determine who wins where and gets what electoral votes. In that regard, things have tightened up considerably as Virginia is leaning red, NC and Florida are leaning rather heavily red, and Colorado is just a tiny bit blue. But the important ones for Obama at this point are Wisconsin and Michigan (which look fairly safely blue) and Ohio (which is looking about a 60-70% chance to win for Obama). If he takes those three and all the other states which are "safe" blue, he can actually lose all the rest of the battleground states and still win (by 271-269, IIRC). He's somewhat likely to take Iowa, which would add 6 points, and as said, Colorado is still leaning slightly blue.
Most of the fretting about an "October surprise" can be stowed away at this point. By this stage of the race, 95%+ of the electorate is pretty much decided. The remaining "undecideds" are either so low-information that any breaking scandal/story would be unlikely to filter to them anyway and their vote will come down to something like whose hair they like better; or, they're really decided and just trying to be hipsters pretending that they don't prejudge the candidates until some mystical point of conversion in the ballot box.
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Topic: American Election Megathread - It's Over (Read 717427 times)