Bay 12 Games Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 ... 12

Author Topic: Armed Forces Mafia - Basic Edition ENDED NIGHT 1 with Town Victory  (Read 7151 times)

TricMagic

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Armed Forces Mafia - Basic Edition (5/5) Start: Wed, Dec 13th at 7pm EST
« Reply #30 on: December 13, 2023, 08:27:09 pm »

Points gun at Sofanthiel
You get the dubious honor of going first. With 5 players, it only takes 2 deaths for the game to end before day 2. (And will definitely end before day 3) Skipping the day has the benefit of having a chance of day 3, small as it might actually be. In such a short game, skipping is also a valid tactic when you want maximum chaos. "Why did you shoot the townie person?" is a question the dead can't answer.
Logged

Imp

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Armed Forces Mafia - Basic Edition (5/5) Start: Wed, Dec 13th at 7pm EST
« Reply #31 on: December 13, 2023, 08:47:17 pm »

Imp, were my efforts inadequate last game?  I mainly suspected hector for his defensiveness after my questioning, though opted to vote Crystal instead due to what I perceived as a distinct lack of participation.  My thoughts were that, despite some casual messing around, I dedicated a moderate amount of posts to figuring out which one of us was the baddie.  To directly answer your question, yes.  As to how -- well, you'll just have to find out!

sof, as you pointed out near the end of D1 last game, you were doing better than CrystalizedMire.  Both you and CrystalizedMire did what you did as town.

Yeah, I wanted more from you, I explained what I thought of your efforts in full detail before the lynch.

Wanted more from CrystalizedMire too, evaluated that player fully before their lynch.

I'm still watching what everyone's doing, but I am going to try and question more and assume less - or at least lock in assumptions later.  And watch my doubts more, and not be as fast to let them go.  Hec was high on my scum list, and then I just decided to go for other clues.

I wonder if town might have won Birbs if I'd asked more about what I thought was scummy, and encouraged and invited the scummy-looking folks to try harder.

I don't want to lynch scummy, I want to lynch (or shoot) scum.

That said, really looking forward to your scum hunting efforts this game, gonna do my best to see and feel them, understand them, and use that, along with everything else to try to lynch scum D1.  My previous method failed, but it might not always fail, but I really want to ask more and think more.

That said - I'm open to Tric's explanation about why a skip (is that the same as a nolynch vote?  Or different mechanics?) might be the best answer for Tric's wincon.  What are you thinking and doing, Tric?  Can you help me understand better?

That said, Hec was defensive both about my notice of subtle scumminess, and your reactions to him, and just subtly scummy.  I'd love to be back in that game talking to you and thinking, questioning everyone more instead of building case on your death from the first hour of D1.

Reminder, 3 votes to hammer.

Expect your roles at most 1 hour in advance.
Claiming to not know your role (or actually not knowing it) can be a strategy of sorts because it guarantees you're a day 1 null read no matter what you say, but alas...

Yeah, when I said 'flavor' of Max, I meant more attitude.  Wild insane claims, reasonable town play, or what.  Any answer from Max is an answer from Max.  We have to scumhunt that dude, somehow, I hope he helps this game.  I actually missed him D2 of Birbs, something I never thought I'd feel.  This is Max so I fear weird-looking play no matter the role.  I didn't like how he played the pre-restart of Catfia, and he was town then.

"Why did you shoot the townie person?" is a question the dead can't answer.

Why do you think we'll know who shoots who in the night?  Someone dead from shots could have eaten 2, or 3, or 4 shots - and anyone claiming to shoot someone still alive - anyone else who actually shot the still alive person can be sure the one who claimed to shoot them lied.

Points gun at Sofanthiel

Why vote for sof, are you OMGUSing, Tric?  I am trying and trying to read something of scumhunting or why vote sof in your post, and I'm missing it.  Can you help me see and understand, please?  I am not going to vote you in a game with someone not even spoken yet, so little time, and so early in the day, with 3 to hammer, but wow, I really, really need help to understand how you are playing like town, please.

With 5 players, it only takes 2 deaths for the game to end before day 2. (And will definitely end before day 3) Skipping the day has the benefit of having a chance of day 3, small as it might actually be. In such a short game, skipping is also a valid tactic when you want maximum chaos.

So, let's say we nolynch D1.  That leaves 5 going into N1.  Scum get a kill and a shot.  All 4 town are alive and get a shot.  We will have at minimum 0 deaths at night, presuming scum decides not to night kill, and everyone at most shoots someone nobody else shot.  Presuming scum nightkills, and we do know:

Mafia will have a standard mafia kill (kill one player each night), and can use it in addition to their 1 shot rifle.

We will have 1 definite town death, and who knows if we have other town deaths, or manage to shoot the scum - if we know who to shoot, we know who to lynch.  We can discuss, reason, and plan to lynch, and what pressure on scum if we're not talking about lynching D1?

Each of us who isn't the scum is looking at a 25% chance to lynch scum D1, plus if we can actually pick out the scum by D1 behavior, better than 25%.

Night, we have a definite nightkill, unless scum wants to prolong.  And we maybe have other kills, a 25% chance each town player does shoot the the scum, 75% chance they shoot another townie, presuming the town players don't choose to hold their shots (personally, I don't think anyone is likely to hold their shot or the scum their NK.  But I'm open to ideas why if people think people would.)

If we don't lynch D1, I think we are likely to get those 2 deaths N2.  But that would leave 3 alive D2 - so am I right that you're thinking 'if we lynch D1 then it only takes 2 N1 deaths to end the game before D2' - or are you thinking something else?

What do you think the scum would do, Tric, if we don't lynch D1?  N1 and scum kills someone, probably the towniest or the one who suspects the scum the most, or the best speaker or thinker even if they're not also the towniest.  Then everyone gets a shot, if they shoot.  How does this help your wincon, Tric?  How does town turn the chaos of N1 without a D1 lynch into a win?
Logged
For every trouble under the sun, there is an answer, or there is none.
If there is one, then seek until you find it.
If there is none, then never ever mind it.

TricMagic

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Armed Forces Mafia - Basic Edition (5/5) Start: Wed, Dec 13th at 7pm EST
« Reply #32 on: December 13, 2023, 09:07:44 pm »

All players have a gun and nightvest. You've missing the trees for the forest again. Usually a player only has 1 action per phase, barring multi-tasking modifiers.

Jack, does mafia have the regular nightkill this game?
Logged

Imp

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Armed Forces Mafia - Basic Edition (5/5) Start: Wed, Dec 13th at 7pm EST
« Reply #33 on: December 13, 2023, 09:26:27 pm »

Mafia will have a standard mafia kill (kill one player each night), and can use it in addition to their 1 shot rifle.

Hey, maybe I can't see trees or forest.

But can you see the opening post?

Can this mean anything other than what Jack said, 'can use it in addition to'?

I know you want an answer from Jack and that's reasonable, but I'm worried you are stalling.  While we wait for him to confirm what he told us all in the first post of this thread, would you please do some scumhunting, and if you feel like it explain your ideas and plan better?

We only have less than 24 hours to decide who to lynch, if lynch, and who to shoot if shoot.

I really don't want to waste a lot of that time waiting for Jack's answer, so... can you also do stuff in addition to that, if it helps your wincon?

Sec hasn't been on in around 8 hours, maybe is going to join us in the morning.

Max, any ideas or plans, or are you just watching us three spin for now?

Sof, in the off chance our scum isn't Tric, do you have any plans or ideas what to do while we wait for Tric's answer from Jack?
Logged
For every trouble under the sun, there is an answer, or there is none.
If there is one, then seek until you find it.
If there is none, then never ever mind it.

sofanthiel

  • Bay Watcher
  • Escaped Cod
    • View Profile
Re: Armed Forces Mafia - Basic Edition (5/5) Start: Wed, Dec 13th at 7pm EST
« Reply #34 on: December 13, 2023, 10:35:44 pm »

I am not going to vote you in a game with someone not even spoken yet, so little time, and so early in the day, with 3 to hammer, but wow, I really, really need help to understand how you are playing like town, please.
Sof, in the off chance our scum isn't Tric, do you have any plans or ideas what to do while we wait for Tric's answer from Jack?
You seem to be concerning eager to lynch Tric just 10 posts in.  I, personally, don't see any glaring issues with his argument; reddening a name is simply the fastest way to have something explained (a little pressure has never hurt anybody!). Still, I want to hear Tric's answer to your question, as voting me goes against his stated reasoning.

With 5 players, it only takes 2 deaths for the game to end before day 2. (And will definitely end before day 3) Skipping the day has the benefit of having a chance of day 3, small as it might actually be. In such a short game, skipping is also a valid tactic when you want maximum chaos. "Why did you shoot the townie person?" is a question the dead can't answer.
Since analyzing the previous armed forces game is among the few semi-useful things I can do so early on, I'd wager that two people will die tonight.  That would be the most suspicious person, which is, possibly only intuitively, a derivation made on account of this exact thing happening last time + a mafia casualty, who'd also be a guaranteed soldier.  If we don't skip, those two deaths will be game over, giving us a mere 40% chance to catch the rebel.  Not eliminating makes it significantly more likely for us to hear the morning reveille.
Logged
I forgot my love of rolling down the hill on the lawn.
I never noticed it until it was gone.

Secretdorf

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Armed Forces Mafia - Basic Edition (5/5) Start: Wed, Dec 13th at 7pm EST
« Reply #35 on: December 14, 2023, 01:43:16 am »

Well, I took too long a nap but I'm here now.

Sec, did you get the alignment you hoped for this game, and what's your plan for a town win?
Honestly, I wasn't really hoping for anything although being mafia is kinda more fun and more exhilarating and less confusing than being town although I'm basing that off a few games a couple of years ago(and I had a more 'use night actions to catch scum' mentality while this game I'll try genuine scumhunting). As far as my plan is concerned, I think not lynching anyone today seems reasonable to me but I'd prefer if we did not skip today as any talk today will hopefully help us when we do lynch someone tomorrow. I think our chances of hitting mafia at night are pretty slim but at least there will be less possible mafia tomorrow.

As I haven't received my role, I will proceed under the assumption that I'm town. Maybe I'll check my PMs tomorrow.

The role I most want to know is Secretdorf's, so I can learn what powers the mafia have this time.
But you meant "whose role".
Hopefully, my role's the same as yours, otherwise you will learn that once you get your PM. What are your thoughts about Tric's plan, Max? Do you a better way?

All players have a gun and nightvest. You've missing the trees for the forest again. Usually a player only has 1 action per phase, barring multi-tasking modifiers.

Jack, does mafia have the regular nightkill this game?
Did you actually not read the OP or are you pretending not have done so?

There's a lot of talk about the other game. Sadly, I did not have the honour of reading it.

So far I feel Tric and Sofanthiel are more likely town although it's still too early to lock them as town. Imp has actually written far more than anybody else but those posts are, I feel, null on the whole as some of it's about the past game; So, most suspicious to me atm is Max. Hopefully I'll be hear more from him before day end.

Jack (or if someone else has any knowledge):  Can mafia make nightkill and rifle shot in the same phase?
Logged

Maximum Spin

  • Bay Watcher
  • [OPPOSED_TO_LIFE] [GOES_TO_ELEVEN]
    • View Profile
Re: Armed Forces Mafia - Basic Edition (5/5) Start: Wed, Dec 13th at 7pm EST
« Reply #36 on: December 14, 2023, 02:17:30 am »

I considered some largely pointless analysis for some reason.
Town has the firepower to kill two people total in the night, working together. Mafia have the firepower to kill one person, but only once, after which it takes two turns to kill a player.
Even with zero scumhunting, optimal town play, if the mafia player always shoots, can result in a 50% chance of town victory.
Suppose the mafia player always shoots and sticks to a target until the target is dead. Town would never lynch anyone in the day and never shoot anyone at night until the end. N1, I definitely get double-killed and die. N2, someone gets shot and claims being shot on D3. That player would be confirmed town under the assumption. In the event that two people claim being shot, one of them is definitely scum trying to appear to be confirmed town - because town totally followed the plan here - so the one who is really town should shoot the other, while the other two town players should coordinate to make sure each shoots exactly one. This results in a town victory, so, therefore, the mafia will not do this.
Day 3 comes and goes, and N3, the player who was shot N2 dies. There are now three players left. N4, another player gets shot and claims being shot the following day; N5, the town player who wasn't shot should shoot the other unshot player, and the town player who was shot should take his best pick for who to shoot, resulting in a ½ chance of town victory (the mafia will also kill the wounded town player) and a ½ chance that all players are now wounded and the mafia kills either town player for endgame.
Needless to say, we do worse if the mafia do gambits rather than always shooting to kill. The most obvious choice of gambit would be to fake being shot on N4 while not actually shooting anyone, so that N5 has both town players, if they believe this, shooting each other, allowing the mafia player to kill either for endgame. If it's known that the mafia always do this, though, it's a guaranteed town win as both town players shoot the player who claimed to be shot. Unfortunately, the probability of either possible N4 outcome is down to inscrutable psychology, so we can't actually take that win.
I was going to similarly analyze lying about being shot other nights, or shooting different players instead of killing them, but I lost interest.
However, I think a sound mafia strategy is to shoot various players and not focus fire on killing anyone at first, so that town misfires will kill more townies, until the pool of town guns has been reduced a bit. If I were mafia here, which I might be since I haven't received my role PM yet, I would probably shoot one player n1 and also claim to have been shot myself, provided I wasn't actually. Given that the mafia can pull off two shots, there would be one hypothetical shot outstanding, and I would look townier with nobody claiming the shot, while keeping the actual extra shot for later. Of course, there's no way I personally don't get shot n1 by at least somebody, so it's moot.
Town's best strategy, conversely, is to keep your guns to yourself at first. Not that I have any hope of that happening with this set, lol.

Checking, are you claiming you did not get a role PM, or that you did not check to see if you got a role PM, or that you just didn't read your PM(s) yet?
All of the above, and more. I also didn't look at the forum at all between making that post and going to bed. I decided not to read the thread either.
Logged

Imp

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Armed Forces Mafia - Basic Edition (5/5) Start: Wed, Dec 13th at 7pm EST
« Reply #37 on: December 14, 2023, 03:27:21 am »

Jack, will you confirm any of this?

1 shot Rifle - Kill one player on one Night

Does this mean the rifle is one use only?  Use N1, or not, if not maybe use N2 if we get that far, but only one shot?

1 shot Bulletproof Vest - Prevent one death

Does that prevent any one death?  It's a 'bulletproof' vest.  Is it also lynchproof and nightkill proof?

Others already asked about if scum can NK and shoot in the same night, I want to know that too.

Max:
N2, someone gets shot and claims being shot on D3. That player would be confirmed town under the assumption.

I don't think it works like that.  What would stop the scum from not shooting anyone, and claiming they were shot to get that supposed confirmation of town?

As I try to understand Max's ideas/plan, it looks like he predicts that the vest stops NK as well as rifle shot.  Well, the exact wording is 'prevent one death', so it should, and lynches are likely just helping strip off the vest if we did lynch anyone, but let's hear Jack confirm that.

Day 3 comes and goes, and N3, the player who was shot N2 dies

Okay, but what if the scum shoots someone else N2, then claims they were shot N3.  Now we have 2 people claiming shot.

Or reverse that, the scum claims they were shot N2, then shoots someone else N3 - or just shoots two different people each night.  This seems like an extremely bad plan, because while we can shoot or lynch at any point, who do we shoot or lynch?

Needless to say, we do worse if the mafia do gambits rather than always shooting to kill. The most obvious choice of gambit would be to fake being shot on N4 while not actually shooting anyone, so that N5 has both town players, if they believe this, shooting each other, allowing the mafia player to kill either for endgame. If it's known that the mafia always do this, though, it's a guaranteed town win as both town players shoot the player who claimed to be shot. Unfortunately, the probability of either possible N4 outcome is down to inscrutable psychology, so we can't actually take that win.

I was going to similarly analyze lying about being shot other nights, or shooting different players instead of killing them, but I lost interest.

Yeah, okay, you consider the other possibilities too, good.  I don't see any plan to try and determine what to do, but yeah, I also think the scum can have fun with that plan in a lot of ways, and it just ties town's hands.  Takes the lynch from town, takes shooting from town, and what if the scum decides to play along and not kill either.

If I were mafia here, which I might be since I haven't received my role PM yet, I would probably shoot one player n1 and also claim to have been shot myself, provided I wasn't actually. Given that the mafia can pull off two shots, there would be one hypothetical shot outstanding, and I would look townier with nobody claiming the shot, while keeping the actual extra shot for later. Of course, there's no way I personally don't get shot n1 by at least somebody, so it's moot.

Checking, are you claiming you did not get a role PM, or that you did not check to see if you got a role PM, or that you just didn't read your PM(s) yet?
All of the above, and more. I also didn't look at the forum at all between making that post and going to bed. I decided not to read the thread either.

So, you're saying you didn't read the message from Jack and you didn't read the thread before going to bed.  You answer me and quote me, so that's evidence you've read the thread since.  You answered another question from me earlier too, back when I think you weren't reading the thread yet, you claim.

So, this game has a Max flavor of Max, yay.

But Max's plan, if I understand right:

Town, don't do anything until 'the end'; no lynch, no shoot until that final night.  Oh, and Max predicts his own death N1, so he won't be here to tell us when to shoot, hope we can figure it out.  Or maybe he gets lucky night after night, until the end.  I'm really uneasy with this plan, but do I understand you correctly?
Logged
For every trouble under the sun, there is an answer, or there is none.
If there is one, then seek until you find it.
If there is none, then never ever mind it.

Maximum Spin

  • Bay Watcher
  • [OPPOSED_TO_LIFE] [GOES_TO_ELEVEN]
    • View Profile
Re: Armed Forces Mafia - Basic Edition (5/5) Start: Wed, Dec 13th at 7pm EST
« Reply #38 on: December 14, 2023, 03:41:33 am »

It's not a "plan", it's an analysis of possible outcomes starting from the assumption that the mafia always shoot. I clearly said that.
Logged

Maximum Spin

  • Bay Watcher
  • [OPPOSED_TO_LIFE] [GOES_TO_ELEVEN]
    • View Profile
Re: Armed Forces Mafia - Basic Edition (5/5) Start: Wed, Dec 13th at 7pm EST
« Reply #39 on: December 14, 2023, 03:44:34 am »

Also, I feel like the answer to all your questions is really unambiguous and I would blame EuchreJack if he meant anything other than:
Yes, the vest stops the mafiakill;
No, the vest doesn't stop the lynch, which is traditionally not stopped by Bulletproof;
Yes, the rifle is one-use;
Yes, the mafia player's rifle can be used in addition to the mafiakill.
This is also how it always worked before as far as I can remember, having been in this thing twice before.
Logged

Imp

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Armed Forces Mafia - Basic Edition (5/5) Start: Wed, Dec 13th at 7pm EST
« Reply #40 on: December 14, 2023, 04:26:39 am »

Secretdorf, explain your reads please?

So far I feel Tric and Sofanthiel are more likely town although it's still too early to lock them as town.

Why for each?

Imp has actually written far more than anybody else but those posts are, I feel, null on the whole as some of it's about the past game

I was answering sof's question about the other game - throw that out if you please.  What about the rest of what I said?

So, most suspicious to me atm is Max. Hopefully I'll be hear more from him before day end.

I'd like to know what is suspicious to you about Max.

I don't know how long ago you last played, I'm recently back after around a decade's pause myself.  But I do want to know what you are thinking.  It's very low effort to say 'townie/scummie' but without reasons.  The only reason you gave so far for any read is 'null for imp because imp talked about another game'.

sof:

You seem to be concerning eager to lynch Tric just 10 posts in.  I, personally, don't see any glaring issues with his argument; reddening a name is simply the fastest way to have something explained (a little pressure has never hurt anybody!)

I'm concerning eager to find scum.  We have 'all day' but not many days or hours in any day, and I'd like to get what we can before this one ends.

I'm trying to remember that I was part of mislynching you from just a few posts into the game last game, and not laser in on Tric, who doesn't seem to be scumhunting and hit that trigger in me that I'm trying to disarm and remember to watch everyone and watch for subtle scumreads.  I want us all working to find scum.

Statistics so far based on what I can track:

Little more than 1/3 of D1 has passed.  I see this as our vote count and voting statistics:

- Imp (0)-
- TricMagic (1)- sof
- Maximum Spin (0)-
- sofanthiel (1)- Tric
- Secretdorf (1)- Max
- No Lynch (0)-


Warning: 3 is hammer

Not voting: Imp, Sec

Around 15 hours remaining

Vote switches:
Tric switched 'Skip' to sof

Have never voted:  Imp, Sec

Post count:

Imp 5
Tric 4
Max 4
sof 2
Sec 1

Reads so far:

Tric:  Recommendation to skip the day, threat to shoot whoever disagrees.  Talks about discussing why someone shot townie folk on D2.  OMGUS vote on sof, no reasons for vote given, defends idea that lynch is bad for today.  Tells me I'm misunderstanding again, asks Jack to clarify.  I don't see any scumhunting.  I'm concerned about not lynching, that's a town weapon.  I get that it can have a place not to be used, I'm not at all sure its place not to be used is here.

Max:  Claims to not know role, also claims didn't get a message from Jack; RVS Sec 'to know what powers the mafia have'; corrects my typo.  Second post, "I considered some largely pointless analysis for some reason." claims not to have read thread, either before last post or before this one (typo correction makes that untrue, so this is a Max in a mood to be the Max I'm used to, ehh).  Tells me more directly the 'plan' is an analysis, not a plan.  Wondering if Max is doing doctor stuff again, without doctor.  Answers my questions to Jack, notes has played in two of this style before.  I find Max hard to read.  Hoping to see Max do stuff I can understand is useful to town at some point.

sof:  Playfully challenges Tric's plan with a 'you have to get through me' and votes Tric;  Asks me to discuss his play last game, where I found him deeply scummy and explained so last game - he flipped town though; states he will scumhunt this game; theorizes on Max's possible strategies in not claiming to read role message yet.  Notes I am eager to lynch Tric, states he doesn't see 'glaring issues' with Tric's argument, mentions voting adds pressure and that he wants to see Tric's answer to my question and that Tric voting goes against Tric's stated plan.  I find sof hard to read.  Really want more posts to read.

sec:  Discusses his past gameplay style, notes hasn't played in a while.  Supports a nolynch for today but not a skip, wants scumhunting done.  Answers Max and asks what he thinks about Tric's plan and if sees a better way.   Asks Tric if Tric didn't actually read the OP.  States reads without reasons, town for Sof and Tric, null me, suspicious Max.  Not much for me to read here.  I'm concerned about the lack of reasons for reads, only reason stated is why I'm null for talking about another game 'so much'.  Saying why you have no lean and not saying why you have leans seems scummy to me.

Ranked, scummiest to towniest so far:

Tric, not scumhunting, omgus, scum lean.
Sec, reads need reasons, scumhunting please.  slight scum lean.
Max, much posting about game mechanics, not even a plan, just 'analysis'.  How does this help?  Word vomit, reminds me of doctor ploy my first game with.  But Max is hard to read.  Slight scum lean.
Sof, exploring ideas and reaching out to other players.  Weak town lean based on how he's played as town other games with me.
Logged
For every trouble under the sun, there is an answer, or there is none.
If there is one, then seek until you find it.
If there is none, then never ever mind it.

TricMagic

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Armed Forces Mafia - Basic Edition (5/5) Start: Wed, Dec 13th at 7pm EST
« Reply #41 on: December 14, 2023, 08:32:26 am »

I am not going to vote you in a game with someone not even spoken yet, so little time, and so early in the day, with 3 to hammer, but wow, I really, really need help to understand how you are playing like town, please.
Sof, in the off chance our scum isn't Tric, do you have any plans or ideas what to do while we wait for Tric's answer from Jack?
You seem to be concerning eager to lynch Tric just 10 posts in.  I, personally, don't see any glaring issues with his argument; reddening a name is simply the fastest way to have something explained (a little pressure has never hurt anybody!). Still, I want to hear Tric's answer to your question, as voting me goes against his stated reasoning.

With 5 players, it only takes 2 deaths for the game to end before day 2. (And will definitely end before day 3) Skipping the day has the benefit of having a chance of day 3, small as it might actually be. In such a short game, skipping is also a valid tactic when you want maximum chaos. "Why did you shoot the townie person?" is a question the dead can't answer.
Since analyzing the previous armed forces game is among the few semi-useful things I can do so early on, I'd wager that two people will die tonight.  That would be the most suspicious person, which is, possibly only intuitively, a derivation made on account of this exact thing happening last time + a mafia casualty, who'd also be a guaranteed soldier.  If we don't skip, those two deaths will be game over, giving us a mere 40% chance to catch the rebel.  Not eliminating makes it significantly more likely for us to hear the morning reveille.
What are the chances it will actually work. Not high given no lynching is not something.. Well, it's fallen out of favor. Also, 1 townie and 1 mafia dead is GREAT Imp. Why are you implyng otherwise? OP says there is 1 mafia, so why do you imply another?

Honestly it's a talking point and probobly useful. More shots mean a higher chance of town death, but also a higher chance of mafia death. But we'll be up 1 town player since we didn't launch them. If we lynch town, we have 3 shots to hit 1 mafia out of 4 people. They have a vest, so two would need to hit them for it to work. If we don't hit town, that's 4 shots to hit among 5 people. I could go into percentages, but mafia doesn't quite work that way unlesss you're rolling dice, which is usually a losing game.
Logged

TricMagic

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Armed Forces Mafia - Basic Edition (5/5) Start: Wed, Dec 13th at 7pm EST
« Reply #42 on: December 14, 2023, 08:39:30 am »

By Imp's readlist. I'd say it's either Sof (for Imp's track record) Imp (for that read list) or Max (For that fluffpiece.)

By order of elimination that makes Secretdorf town. Which is better than Imp's weak reads. You're waffling again, not scumhunting.
Logged

Secretdorf

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Armed Forces Mafia - Basic Edition (5/5) Start: Wed, Dec 13th at 7pm EST
« Reply #43 on: December 14, 2023, 08:53:12 am »

Yeah, I should have explained that.
I have a townlean on Tricmagic because, while I agree that completely skipping the day would be detrimental to town, I do not believe scum would act like Tric is acting. I would expect the actual mafia to be more careful and calculated. What Tric's doing makes more sense if he were town. Also, I have played with Tric before, and while I do not remember a lot of specifics, I have an intuitive feeling that what Tric's doing now lines up with what town Tric used to do, being... silly( :P). Also,

All players have a gun and nightvest. You've missing the trees for the forest again. Usually a player only has 1 action per phase, barring multi-tasking modifiers.

Jack, does mafia have the regular nightkill this game?
This post. Unless Tric's acting dumb, this means they do not have knowledge that mafia should have. Of course, they might be doing this to clear them if they're mafia, but combining this with the above, I think Tric's pretty likely to be town.

Regarding Sofanthiel:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Post 1: The vote on Tric is, I believe, a classic RVS one. I share the concern over Max's claim.
Post 2: I agree with their defence of Tric; Imp, you did look a bit too eager to me as well, but I can understand how you could be expecting actual scumhunting, and the lack thereof could look scummy to you. I also think that their explanation of Tric's plan is pretty straight and should be coming from town.
However, just 2 posts mean that I cannot be too sure about Sofanthiel, so I'd say a slight townlean.

Regarding you, Imp, you'd actually said a lot, but a lot of it was further questioning in reaction to other people's post, and let's say, none of it particularly stuck with me, as in me not feeling anything you said was townish or scummy. While it looked like you were putting effort into finding scum via prodding people and thus generating additional information, I wanted to be cautious because I think it's pretty easy to just ask questions to people and be active as scum.

However, your last post with reads was more clear, and your analysis of posts feels genuine to me, not biased, forced or manipulative. I can feel that this is coming from town, so I'm upgrading you to strong townread.

Regarding Max:
I do not actually think there is anything suspicious about what Max is doing. I can see how the analysis is coming from a town player. But Max claims not to know his role, and I think it is more likely mafia than not.


So here's my final read list from towniest to scummiest:
Imp
Tricmagic
Sofanthiel
Maximumspin

(Autocorrect's being kinda annoying(by Tric-> nitric lol), so if you see weird typos, probably not my fault.)

Ninja'd by Tric twice. Will respond to that later.
Logged

EuchreJack

  • Bay Watcher
  • Lord of Norderland - Lv 20 SKOOKUM ROC
    • View Profile
Re: Armed Forces Mafia - Basic Edition (5/5) Start: Wed, Dec 13th at 7pm EST
« Reply #44 on: December 14, 2023, 08:59:25 am »

Also, I feel like the answer to all your questions is really unambiguous and I would blame EuchreJack if he meant anything other than:
Yes, the vest stops the mafiakill;
No, the vest doesn't stop the lynch, which is traditionally not stopped by Bulletproof;
Yes, the rifle is one-use;
Yes, the mafia player's rifle can be used in addition to the mafiakill.
This is also how it always worked before as far as I can remember, having been in this thing twice before.
This is all true.

Also, I want to state that voting "skip" or "No Lynch" is an acceptable vote, even though I forgot it on the initial vote count. My apologies, but I will probably not be able to update the vote counts.
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 ... 12