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[Strongpoint]

Well, it was expected.

I am happy that there were no mass civilian casualty events on Easter, knowing Russian style of doing the opposite of what they are saying I expected something really nasty.

[King Zultan]

These ceasefire things always seem like they're lies, have any of them been real?

[anewaname]

With Ukraine, the best of their peace efforts seems to be the period of time between 1994 and the 2014 Crimea conquest (1994, when Ukraine gave up their nukes with Russia signing the agreement to respect Ukrainian borders).

But, one could argue that Russia didn't break that treaty sooner because they already had political control over Ukraine (Ukraine was a chaotic mess and pro-Russians controlled it by maintaining that chaos). And, Russia was also busy elsewhere, taking control of the post-1992 Russian-pro-western oligarchy, and re-establishing political control over Georgia and Moldovia through force.

[EuchreJack]

Trump's "final offer" for peace requires Ukraine to accept Russian occupation

It sucks.

[Strongpoint]

It also means that Russia lost enough of its offensive potential to be content with current gains and seek a pause with the help of a friendly American administration.

2 and 3 were kinda expected from any possible administration, it is what I would expect if Kamala had won.

1 is a loud message to the world - you can annex territories by force, the US will bitch about it for some time and then recognize your conquest ~10 years later and pressure the country you took it from to do the same.

4 and 5... Well, it will allow Russia to rebuild and go for round 2 sooner rather than later.

[Great Order]

Oh wow, Trump really is a pro-Russian cunt isn't he?

Like there's no pretending he's anything but.

[Strongpoint]

JD Vance: “The Ukrainians and the Russians are both gonna have to give up some of the territories they currently own…the only way for the killing to stop is that both armies put down their weapons.”


Thank you, but Ukrainians have no need in the Kursk or Bilgorod regions.

Jokes aside... the vice president of the US says that Russia-occupied territory = "owned" by Russia. Funny times to live in.

[EuchreJack]

The US threats to "walk away" from the conflict are also only really threats to Ukraine. Moscow would LOVE the US to "walk away", sigh.

[EuchreJack]

Oh wow, Trump really is a pro-Russian cunt isn't he?

Like there's no pretending he's anything but.

Oh, that's no surprise. Putin owns Trump's ass.

The real surprise is the utter and complete loathing that JD Vance has for Ukraine. Like, did a nice Ukrainian girl reject him for the prom or something?

It's actually not surprising, apparently there is a long history of this bullshit. Vance's handler is essentially an American Oligarch that wants the US to be more like Russia.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/31/us/politics/jd-vance-peter-thiel-rumble.html

[McTraveller]

I'm hoping for more "human errors" to occur at additional Russian weapons depots.

[Folly]

The US threats to "walk away" from the conflict are also only really threats to Ukraine. Moscow would LOVE the US to "walk away", sigh.

How is it even a threat?
After taking office Trump immediately halted all aid to Ukraine and sent them a bill several times higher than what the previous aid was worth. Trump's so-called 'negotiations' have amounted to nothing more than mercilessly insulting Ukraine and telling them they "don't have the cards" and that they should just give up.

Ukraine would be much better off without the US, at least while Trump remains in the White House.

[Duuvian]

Polling I saw not too long ago suggests reasons why there are some sticking points on the deal:

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/03/25/7504455/
Three-quarters of Ukrainians believe in Ukraine's victory, poll shows
Tuesday, 25 March 2025, 13:38

"Details: Regarding what constitutes victory, 30% of those who believe in Ukraine’s success consider only the complete expulsion of Russian forces and the restoration of borders as of January 2014 to be a true victory.

For 17%, victory means the complete devastation of the Russian Armed Forces and the incitement of an uprising or the collapse of Russia.

A further 22% would consider victory to be the restoration of the status quo as of 23 February 2022, while 11% would see it as the expulsion of Russian troops from all Ukrainian territory except occupied Crimea.

For 10%, the end of the war would be considered a victory, even if Russian forces remain in the territories seized after 24 February 2022."

Elections would be coming shortly thereafter, presumably. It was forecast that there will be heavy meddling, but here is the recent poll I saw.

Spoiler: Graph (click to show/hide)

List of personages was for polling purposes only and not a list of candidates afaik

The point is that even if the torches and pitchforks did not come out over a harsh deal, the political situation is unlikely to allow for the current offer because it's almost certain to politically destroy a harsh deal signatory and probably the other parties nearby. That's a notable thought, because would the political backlash open a gap for a pro-Putin candidate? I doubt it, but it seems like the disruptive sort that would help with that effort.

[Strongpoint]

Note that Trump's fresh genius idea to make Ukraine recognize Crimea (or any other territory ) can't quite work.

Zelensky can't do that. Parliament can't do that. A constitutional majority in parliament can't do that. Prezident+constistuional majority can't do that.

Our constitution is quite clear. Adding or removing territories can be done only via a country-wide referendum. Changing this part of the constitution also requires a referendum.

So if Zelensky officially cedes Crimea to Russia tomorrow, not only will it be QUITE unpopular, it will be very illegal, and any semi-reasonable future government can and will treat it as nothing.

[wobbly]

Trump doesn't respect the US constitution, he sure as he'll isn't going to give a damn about the Ukraine's.

This is an area of diplomacy I don't understand, and I'm doubtful anyone who hasn't worked in diplomacy fully understands.

Russia still controls Japenese territory from WW2 and this is why Japan never criticises Russia. Russia will never give it back it, why give up that kind of leverage? But Japan continues to suck up to Russia anyway.

Their is a region in the middle east that only exists in Turkey, (and obviously the actual region) that does not legally exist but exists anyway.

Sadly I suspect things have turned against Ukraine. It's I liked to say the western response was terrible, but it was better then Georgia and better than Chtechnya and hopefully better in the future.


I am glad my country still supports you. We can do, not much? But maybe better than we are doing.

Well didn't mean that to be a crazy, meandering ramble but there it is.

[wobbly]

Maybe I'm the 1st to say this, but maybe I'm not, but I'll respect your sovereignty no matter what happens, or what my country decides.

I'm a wreck of a human being but I'll stand with you.