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Author Topic: FBYOR 7 - Game Over - Heaven or Hell  (Read 74297 times)

Magma Mater

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 4 - Valentine's Day (9 / 14)
« Reply #1770 on: March 20, 2025, 03:10:22 pm »

My rule of thumb is when town are busy eliminating one another, scum usually step back and let that happen, especially if there's no alternative target. Looking at the votes:

Magma Mater (1): Salvatore Monday
TricMagic (0):
VermillionSkies (0):
notquitethere (0):
Imp (0):
Salvatore Monday (0):
EuchreJack (6): Magma Mater, notquitethere, notquitethere, VermillionSkies, EuchreJack, TricMagic
Jim Groovester (0):
ToonyMan (0):

No Execution (0):

6 votes to hammer.

Not Voting (3): Imp, Jim Groovester, ToonyMan

Scum is probably in Imp, Jim and Toony. I think Jim is clean (and IIRC he expressed a desire to vote but didn't want to hammer). Before getting into tinfoil land, Toony is also good. And so by extension so is Salvatore. That also leaves Imp.

Don't want to get myself into full confirmation bias mode on this one, so I should seek some alternative explanations... but Imp does seem like a good vote for today. It would take down Toony as well, which should clear Salvatore if he flips town and the game continues.

I really think that Jim Groovester is town. After I usurped his only ability, he hasn't done anything other than mug people all game. Two things here:
1) On the night that Agentt was blocked, Jim Groovester is confirmed to have mugged twice. Why wouldn't the scum team have Jim Groovester perform the kill in this situation, if he has nothing better to do?
2) He's just been running around mugging people. He's not a third party.
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ToonyMan

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Shark Tank With Hats (7 / 14)
« Reply #1771 on: March 20, 2025, 03:11:04 pm »

Pfp at work

I plan on writing a big post for tonight on the game I've been reading through D1 and D2 when I can.

1. I've been focusing on the two dead mafia players as well as the players alive today
2. I'm not focusing on Sal, I know I said the love maker is 100% scum earlier but I didn't understand the context. Sal was town before and there's nothing in my res ability that tells me they'd come back bad, which brings me to...
3. I think there's just one scum left. I'm going to assume it's a third mafia because otherwise me looking for unnatural behavior within the mafia is fruitless and this demotivates me, if Sal came back bad and is the reason the game is still going they clearly can't kill anyone and we should just no lynch every day until Magma has inspected everyone
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Jim Groovester

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Shark Tank With Hats (7 / 14)
« Reply #1772 on: March 20, 2025, 03:11:55 pm »

notquitethere, do you or VermillionSkies have the Top Hat and therefore it doesn't matter who else votes because the two of you fully control the vote for today?
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ToonyMan

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Shark Tank With Hats (7 / 14)
« Reply #1773 on: March 20, 2025, 03:12:20 pm »

@Magma:
Exactly, this is why I said Jim felt town just recently because it feels like they've just been mugging people.
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ToonyMan

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Shark Tank With Hats (7 / 14)
« Reply #1774 on: March 20, 2025, 03:17:41 pm »

I see I see, thanks Sal for being honest.

Also, I'm pretty sure Jim is town here.

Having been locked in Imp discord hell the last night and being able to speak with them makes me want to believe they're town as well. I talked with them quite a lot as part of my interrogation technique, you see.
When I said this last night IRL was when I was thinking "hmm Jim hasn't been able to do anything but double mug people because of all his abilities being taken, that's like how I feel now because I can't do anything myself anymore which is why I'm double mugging tonight too".
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ToonyMan

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Shark Tank With Hats (7 / 14)
« Reply #1775 on: March 20, 2025, 03:22:47 pm »

My primary action is still Disabled, I've never been able to use it the whole game.

My res was 1shot but now it's an auto because of Imp. It sounds like the auto they got a copy of is slightly different than mine. When I change someone's role they get new abilities such as tracker or cop, it also modifies them which can be possibly bad, like if you have seen the Firefighter hat you can see one downside there.

I mugged NQT and Magma last night this is obvious from their POV because Jim stole back the Wizard Hat I stole from Magma, I think.
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notquitethere

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Shark Tank With Hats (7 / 14)
« Reply #1776 on: March 20, 2025, 03:40:30 pm »

notquitethere, do you or VermillionSkies have the Top Hat and therefore it doesn't matter who else votes because the two of you fully control the vote for today?
Vermilion might have it (hasn't told me). I have the Black Hat and so am currently a miller until I eat it.
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Magma Mater

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Shark Tank With Hats (7 / 14)
« Reply #1777 on: March 20, 2025, 03:43:47 pm »

notquitethere, do you or VermillionSkies have the Top Hat and therefore it doesn't matter who else votes because the two of you fully control the vote for today?
Vermilion might have it (hasn't told me). I have the Black Hat and so am currently a miller until I eat it.

Vermilion didn't have any hats at the end of the night, I mugged him. He probably just used a "gain a vote" ability twice.

If you don't have the Top Hat then I guess it's Salvatore Monday lying again.
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Imp

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Shark Tank With Hats (7 / 14)
« Reply #1778 on: March 20, 2025, 05:41:20 pm »

... Well, at least you have the 'good taste' not to sus your own lover, which if you're anti-town you must leave alive at least until end game or something.  I guess an SK would wanna die with their lover, but only at game end.
I want to look into Vermilion some more of course. He was a suspect of mine earlier in the game.



Basically on the same page as Jim here. There's a horrible world where Toony is something convolutedly scary but the best fit for scum at the moment is probably Imp.

I've felt like she's avoided engaging with me the whole game, while in the last game when she was town she was on my case constantly. I think a scum!Imp would be cautious here about attracting my ire. I'm going to park one vote on Imp.

But really before making any decision, I need to go back and look at the votes and cases and see who's doing what.

No, but you sure are different from my last town game with you.

NQT, I'm trying to be extremely patient with you.  I don't understand your play from the last 2 finished games.  I know you're town in them.  I'm perplexed and I absolutely AM giving you space this game.  But if you are anti-town, I'm not going to let you win.  I would never do that.

MVM4 I deeply engaged with you.  I was maf there, and you almost caught me, then died and were still sure I was maf, then you had this weird flip in thinking and behavior and decided to put your oneshot medium ability into me.

That's brilliant, except you apparently decided you were wrong about me and that I genuinely was town.  You then interacted with me and after the game appeared genuinely, out of game offended that I portrayed myself as a town while interacting with you in the private chat you created with me.  The idea that could be a trap seemed not even a possible reasonable consideration for you - you seemed to think the reasonable stance was that I knew everything about your ability and its limitations and I should have been gloating at you - that anything else was bad spirit and ethics from ME. 

Huh, so I was right the first time about Imp, and then I talked myself into trusting her. My apologies to town.

Imp, why did you spend all that effort messing me around in our deadchat, that was totally not neccessary?! You could have just gloated briefly and be done with it. That was just diabolical for no reason.

I took it to DMs after that to discuss with you.  What bugs me about that so much is that you seemed to have this belief that I knew everything you knew, that I knew what safe was and wasn't, and that I shouldn't think to be careful about anything you knew was safe.

That - is not a level of thinking I've EVER seen from you before.  I thought you were angry at me.

Next game, BYOBoard game.  There I tear into you hard after a bit.  I am seeing you with town eyes.  And you are to my eval actively helping anti-town and your logic jumps and lacks are impossible to follow for me.

I confirm nothing in my role or anything I know about explains why EP might be told a day ahead about being unable to target someone, and I also confirm I didn't cause him to become unable to do that targeting.

Thinking on it some more, if Crystal is scum and she survives to this night and has enough victory points to use her kill, if she splats two players, mafia wins, right? If she's town and vigs the wrong player, mafia also win. Mechanically, juice's flip gives us more reason to elim Crystal.

If it's not Crystal, then it's somewhere in {Players:{Duelists:NJW, Imp, NQT}, EP}:
- If scum NK a Duelist, then the remaining Duelists will either gang up on EP or turn on each other with EP being kingmaker.
- If scum NK EP, then it's me v NJW in the finale and maybe by that time Imp will have got her night game together and will have done something useful.

I feel pretty good about both those scenarios.

@NQT: I couldn't use it last night; reread the start-of-day post.
Oh neat, in my excitement to read the flip, I missed that.

Anyway, I learned at the end of the day that I wouldn't be able to use Watch tonight, so that's annoying. (Or target NJW, but that isn't relevant.)
Uh... why isn't that relevant? Who do you think stopped you from targeting NJW? NJW hasn't claimed that. Also, if Watch specifically was blocked it wasn't because it was a Personal ability, as you could still do your taskmaster thing which is also a personal ability, right?

Hey, NQT.  Why am I not green in that?  Didn't you just get through explaining how sure you are I can't be maf?

I'm not scared about people thinking I'm maf.

I'm trying to track the HECK you believe and think, what you're doing and why.

Both only gets worse.  And worse.  And worse.  Even your end game attempts to clear stuff up.  It looks worse.  You don't even appear to believe yourself, or your reads, or your thinking.

NQT: No, seriously, why on earth would you have tracked Imp over any other player? She was at the top of your readlist yesterday and Salvatore flipping scum made her even more town by confirming EJ's greencheck wasn't dishonest.
If you'd seen the duelist chat you wouldn't be asking this! :D Due to Imp's tinfoil belligerence towards me, and her fooling me the last time she was scum and we shared a chat, I wanted to remove any shred of a doubt that she was scum, especially as she was still a possible elimination candidate for you, Crystal, NJW and even Euchrejack to a very small extent. So possibly clearing her seemed like a high value thing to do. Also, I'd already acted on Crystal so it was less valuable to act on her again. I say both these things because a key part of my ability is it varies a bit in power each night and so it was by no means certain that I would get the track result, I could have just got the genre and number of abilities— a result I already had for Crystal.



Hey, NQT.  Why am I not green in that?  Didn't you just get through explaining how sure you are I can't be maf?
Yes of course, I just greened my name so paranoiacs like yourself wouldn't accuse me of scumslipping here by putting my own name in the suspect list. Evidently that backfired. Chill.

We've seen Eurogame flip and know they don't vig. They kill opposite alignment.
Oh yeah good spot. So the vig possibility isn't dangerous, but the mafia possibility is.

How are you not tracking all this stuff town would really care about and mafia might struggle to remember to think about when speaking 'as town'?
It's silly o'clock in the morning here, I should go to bed.

You're like that as town.  And it keeps getting worse.

Imp

I'm not imagining it am I, NJW and Salvatore never converse in the duelist chat, it's always with me, right?

So, NQT.  You're pretty darn sure NJW is town.
Don't put words in my mouth. He's my #2 suspect! I literally said in my last post that there are good reasons to suspect him. That's not pretty darn sure at all!



Crystal
CM: Which of NJW and NQT do you find more suspicious? Why?
Of the two, NQT. NJW still has lingering towncred and NQT tracking Imp feels weirder than NJW preventing NQT from acting on me and EP
As I already explained, I had only a 40% chance of successfully tracking anyone, so tracking was an optional benefit and not the main reason I picked Imp— though of course clearing her in my mind was also valuable given that there was so much mutual animosity between us. Picking only one more-or-less arbitrary bit of information to make your read on is pretty sketchy!



Elephant Parade, why did you do a message last night instead of picking a useful family ability?



I can recognise I've hit the frustrating I'm-never-playing-this-horrible-game-again part of playing mafia. You know, where you're town but everyone hates you and the harder you try, the more you post, and the more you post, the more ammunition you give people to doubt you. The pro move is clearly to play like Crystal and NJW and avoid making waves so no one omguses you back. I'm going to keep fighting it though, as I actually want town to win this game and I'm not just going to lie down.



That question you asked me, I hit you with facts about for literal game days before.  It was a core concern of mine in that 'scum chat 2', I discussed in the thread.

I sincerely believed you anti-town that game.  And faking... a lot of confusion and thinking I cannot follow and cannot see how is townie - and I know you were town doing it.

I don't think that's like your earlier play from much earlier, like Max's Supernormal.  Or FBYOR6.  I hope you recover fully.  You mentioned an illness, and I hope you are strongly and fully recovering, I like your mind and I want you as I got to know you.  My concern about you is NAI, but I made a decision after your flip last game to kid glove you.

Heck, much of the posts between us on this page http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=182989.990

I explain stuff out of game like:

You're doing it as town.  And you're probably doing it unconsciously.

But your techniques, even if incidental/coincidental.

You are trying to change my world view.  I'm like a dog you're training or something.  Is the feel to me.

You want me to give you the exact answers you want to hear.  And not hold you accountable or have my own ideas.  You want your ideas back from me.

You look exactly like maf.

Sal doesn't even NEED to work on that change imp's worldview plan.  They already have you spun so tight in their web - a web that doesn't even fit me, I'm sideways to it - that you are doing their work for them.

This is my view.

And I screamed about it because... I lack the skills to calmly shake your hand and the maf should have killed me if I did.  But you did masterful maf-work for maf there.  To my read and thinking.

I'm sorry.  You as town failed a bunch of my town checks.

I will try to recalibrate, and I will try to gently show you when I think you may need to groom the scum-slime off of you.

To me, having been fooled by Sal which you .... town you.  Would have realized you were and then not to recalibrate your thinking -

I think really highly of you, NQT.  I think your mind as town makes those leaps.  I see them sometimes.

I've only played like 3 games with you.  And life gets in the way as does health and whatever else.

I just messed up.  I couldn't tell maf you, which I've never met, from town you in this circumstance.

What you see here is me trying to be gentle and patient with you.  You just looked total maf to me when we were both town.  Before that when I was maf you did a total 180 on your own thinking and made a choice that went against your own instincts and then you appeared upset with me when I continued to play careful because I had no idea what level of trap you were making - and you acted like that doesn't even make sense.  Not like you were making that good a trap and it was a ploy - like you didn't even have an understanding of my perspective possible within your mind.

And that doesn't match what I think about your thinking, either game.  Makes me want to handle you really gently and be very nice to you specific, and not ask too much of you.  I have no idea how to scumhunt you in your recent games, because as I explained both in game and out of game, your thinking there as town looked so solidly pro-maf even in intention and patterning and goals - it's like your mind was hijacked by a virus or something, so now you serve the dark.  I'm confused and scared for you, out of game, I want you to recover fully and I have no idea how to help you or how to probe you to get answers I can use.

I am watching you from a distance, and I am VERY hands off with you.  But yes.... given how everyone else looks to me, I do think you may well be mafia here.  Low confidence, but higher than the rest of these players with us - I am more reading you as a blank slot and it's more because I think if we have maf left, it's more likely to be you than anyone else alive.  Sorry, I am town.  If you are town too - imagine the lay of the game once I'm dead, you saw my town flip (I presume we see Toony's flip too; if game isn't over then there's still anti-town out there) and need to solve in what remains.

I'm also hands-off with Mater too, for reasons I'll discuss with Mater out of game once game is over; everything's okay from me-to-you, Mater and as far as I know fine from you-to-me and we discuss and explore openly (or I do, within what passes for 'open' from me) once we don't have the additional pressure and restrictions of a maf game to distract and confuse at least me.

The rest of my interactions are normal, filtered through the awesome pressures of my current (and mostly awesome) life.

Be nice to hear from Verm, but everything I've read from from him, he continues to look extremely much like pro-town Verm.  I also think Toony is quite likely to be pro-town too.  I've never seen anti-town Jim, or anti-town NQT, or anti-town Mater.  I'm most concerned about NQT, which absolutely sucks because I don't want Verm out of play.

NQT seems absolutely self-serving no matter what else.

It has to be Euchrejack or Vermilion.

He changes his presentation easily.  Granted, I couldn't follow his logic or perceptions when I've known he was town.

He started the game with 2 votes.  Maf never appeared to try and kill him; neither did any other anti-town if we have any.  Maybe Agentt was blocked or something, maybe Crystal was more scared about Sal than anyone else (but not scared enough to use the snowball, Sal's back with us) - maybe all maf are dead.  And I want to kid glove and be patient and give so much room to NQT, but by shadow-reading - reading everyone but him.

I think that if we have maf left, it's most likely NQT.

NQT does start this:

Oh I see. That all makes sense.

Then let's do it. I'd like to flip Euchrejack and to some extent Vermilion. You'd like to resolve me. So why not?

notquitethere, notquitethere

Let's get a win for town in the bloodiest way possible.

And leaves that there for 8 hours before this:

OK I thought the more bloodthirsty route could be fun, but it is blatantly just Euchrejack, Euchrejack. Let's not drag this out.

If I get to L-2, I will hammer myself though, as that could be a funnier way to achieve the same thing.

Bussing or not maf, but hey he also double votes himself today.

Actually, fuck it.
NQT is probably scum, and nobody else can say it due to their double vote.

Two votes AND cop? please
When did I say I was a cop?? This is the sort of thing scum might have picked up from some misleading hints and then magnified in the scum chat.

NQT has been mainly chasing useless leads.
1. Town players spend most of their time suspecting other town players: if we all knew who was scum straight away the game would be very short
2. None of my leads have flipped yet.

This seems to be written from the perspective of someone who already knows the alignments, and is also a very funny thing to be saying from someone who did very little on D2.

But as NQT said about themselves, they're basically useless as town, so I guess that is more null than scum.
I actually think I'm reasonably effective nowadays. I managed to sniff out all the scum by the end of the previous game. That game you linked was a very different kind of setup, and, IIRC, one that I won by taking the friendly humourous approach you see there. So, thank you for quoting one of my more brilliant town moments!



Right now I'm still happy to have either Agentt or Euchrejack flip, but as they're both voting each other rather than finding a third suspect it gives at least some reason to believe they're not both mafia. As such, I really should make a choice.

Agentt Agentt who was roleblocked on the night where there was no kill is the obvious choice. Euchrejack is flailing about, but having wild suspicious stabs in the dark is fairly towny.



As an aside, I also don't like Vermilion's steady empowerment. Sacrificing resurrection and votes must be to some purpose.

It's got to be Agentt. I'd also like to hear from Euchrejack.

That's the extent of any bussing votes, I don't have time to dig in deeper now and have to be gone for many hours.  He said stuff about Agentt and Crystal earlier.

If we have maf left, I think it's NQT because I don't think it's anyone else.

If we have non-maf anti-town, I suspect within the pool of NQT, and also Mater and Jim, because I do think Verm's very likely to be town, and Toony is very likely to be town.  A town Toony means flipped-town ressed Sal should be towny because Toony doesn't think his res can change alignment.

I never got to see what Toony's original res was, but the copy of the changed ability I finally got looks town.

I have done a lot of double targeting this game.  Being able to target the person I change an ability on increases my odds of getting a copy, either that SoD when they get their change, and/or that next EoD when I could get a further-changed copy of their changed ability.

It's a low chance of success.  It's proced twice this game - I got an end of day changed-change on Verm's changed Demons within.  I have not used it, it's useful but I chose to try and bring back more town res power instead.  That didn't happen - I managed to get a copy of the changed auto that Toony has.

So, I do think all of Verm, Toony, and Sal are pro-town if not town outright.  I'm town.  So I am most concerned about NQT, by reflection of others since heck, I deeply know I can't read NQT anymore.  And I have never seen Jim or Mater as anti-town.
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Salvatore Monday

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Shark Tank With Hats (7 / 14)
« Reply #1779 on: March 20, 2025, 05:56:33 pm »

By the way, I do want to mention one minor thing that shouldn't directly affect the game in particular.
N1, I absolutely got flavor that I was killed by being crushed by a giant snowball.

I don't know for sure that this WASN'T a mod error where I was never supposed to revive, but I am not going to question it until and unless Fallacy has something to say about it.
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Magma Mater

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Shark Tank With Hats (7 / 14)
« Reply #1780 on: March 20, 2025, 06:20:34 pm »

So, I do think all of Verm, Toony, and Sal are pro-town if not town outright.  I'm town.  So I am most concerned about NQT, by reflection of others since heck, I deeply know I can't read NQT anymore.  And I have never seen Jim or Mater as anti-town.

notquitethere was willing to die yesterday for laughs though, you really think he'd do that as non-town?

VermilionSkies has a higher chance of being mafia than notquitethere.
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notquitethere

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Shark Tank With Hats (7 / 14)
« Reply #1781 on: March 20, 2025, 08:28:59 pm »

Imp, what has Vermilion done that makes you sure he's pro-town?

You do raise an interesting question. Why haven't scum tried to kill me? I'd like to know why they haven't been killing more generally. As far as we know, scum have only made one kill this game— Salvatore (Unless Magma is scum, of course—and even then Toastercultist would hardly be the obvious choice to eliminate for scum). One night they were blocked, but two other nights they appear to be laying low.

Some players think this is because mafia have been completely eliminated and now we're dealing with some kind of third party. I'm not so sure.

If you think I may be mafia, do you think I would have avoided killing?
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ToonyMan

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Shark Tank With Hats (7 / 14)
« Reply #1782 on: March 20, 2025, 08:56:37 pm »

I'm home finally so I can start doing my BIG post.

If you don't have the Top Hat then I guess it's Salvatore Monday lying again.
Sal isn't lying.

By the way, I do want to mention one minor thing that shouldn't directly affect the game in particular.
N1, I absolutely got flavor that I was killed by being crushed by a giant snowball.

I don't know for sure that this WASN'T a mod error where I was never supposed to revive, but I am not going to question it until and unless Fallacy has something to say about it.
Yes this is more reason to believe Crystal wasn't lying about killing you because they were penguins and as we know penguins kill people with snowballs.

I'm not so sure we should believe Crystal when (according to you) they implied they have a "veteran" player on their team. This would implicate myself, Jim, NQT, or Magma as a third mafia. However, believing what scum say, even when they're dead, is not advisable. I'm reminded of the Supernatural game I think where Jim was third-party and threw a town player under the bus because they were dead and didn't give a shit. Crystal could easily be saying whatever to cause problems for town.

I admit I am biased into wanting Imp to be town because we're lovers and if they're mafia I can just win with them, however I do think it's possible they're mafia and that believing Crystal "veteran" statement at face value is incorrect. However I'm not fully confident that Imp is mafia, and I want to do a deep dive into this game. I also want town to win as I feel we deserve it more and hopefully I can show that tonight.
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Jim Groovester

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Shark Tank With Hats (7 / 14)
« Reply #1783 on: March 20, 2025, 09:43:21 pm »

I would have really thought scum would have shot NQT/VS during N4 to take away that vote block going into the (probable) endgame.
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ToonyMan

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Shark Tank With Hats (7 / 14)
« Reply #1784 on: March 20, 2025, 10:17:08 pm »

I think I'm going to split this post in two. I'm doing Day 1 currently and then I'll post Day 2 after. It'll just be those two days probably. Hopefully this is helpful I think I've already gleamed some useful insight from rereading the game.

I would have really thought scum would have shot NQT/VS during N4 to take away that vote block going into the (probable) endgame.
I'm not sure why scum aren't killing. I thought they would kill either me/Imp or Jim/Sal last night, although I know now there is no Jim/Sal pair.
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