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Author Topic: FBYOR 7 - Game Over - Heaven or Hell  (Read 74285 times)

notquitethere

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Sheer Heart Attack (6 / 14)
« Reply #1815 on: March 21, 2025, 10:22:33 am »

"It's probably Magma or Imp". If you think I'm lying about the order of preference he expressed in our chat, then you're still left with Magma then Imp. He wasn't certain on you but he didn't particularly suspect me, otherwise he would have said, right?



I think the answer to the game is going to be found in how everyone reacted to the mass kill plan yesterday. Scum would have known it wouldn't have touched them, but they couldn't be seen as too enthusiastic for it either, knowing how it could turn out.
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ToonyMan

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Sheer Heart Attack (6 / 14)
« Reply #1816 on: March 21, 2025, 11:54:08 am »

PFP

Imp, you graverobbed the Top Hat, right?
Yes Imp has the Top Hat. I told them to graverob the Top Hat if they wanted to when I was telling them I was going to mug you(NQT) and Magma. When this day started they told me they had done so and weren't sure if they should post in the thread about it and I told them it was okay to keep it quiet for now.

Also, Verm didn't have you as a suspect because they thought you were going to be removed via process of elimination. Do you believe this is a true statement I made?
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notquitethere

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Sheer Heart Attack (6 / 14)
« Reply #1817 on: March 21, 2025, 12:58:07 pm »

Also, Verm didn't have you as a suspect because they thought you were going to be removed via process of elimination. Do you believe this is a true statement I made?
No. If Vermilion thought I was scum, he would have said so. He would have said something like "I'm removing my number one suspect with this". If he thought someone else was scum he would have said "I think mafia is one of these players, but also I'm removing some other possibility here" which is exactly what he did say.
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Magma Mater

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Sheer Heart Attack (6 / 14)
« Reply #1818 on: March 21, 2025, 01:43:54 pm »

Gonna go out on a limb and say that VermilionSkies probably didn't bother considering whether notquitethere could be scum, so trying to determine his thoughts there is futile.

I don't really have the time to reread before deadline, but I am paying attention to other peoples' recap posts. Still leaning toward voting for Imp, honestly.
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ToonyMan

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Sheer Heart Attack (6 / 14)
« Reply #1819 on: March 21, 2025, 02:18:33 pm »

Pragmatically I'm going to be biased towards favoring Imp because I can still win with them if they're scum, however I would prefer that town wins.

If lovers didn't exist I think I still vote NQT over Imp here today. I've been suspicious of NQT this whole game and I have not felt that way about Imp. Stuff like Imp giving Agentt a long detailed response in spoiler brackets on D1 doesn't make sense to me if they're mafia together. NQT having a permanent double vote and revive does not make me comfortable.

I have not reread D2 yet but I understand Jim saying NQT looks better on D2 compared to D1 (such as voting Agentt while Imp's brain breaks over Krr1ss) so I will try to see those interactions as well.

I want to reread D2 and give thoughts on that when I get home, it's very unlikely my opinion of players changes but maybe this could convince Jim to side with me and Imp as opposed to NQT.
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notquitethere

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Vote Retrospective
« Reply #1820 on: March 21, 2025, 02:51:27 pm »

Vote Retrospective

My mafia philosophy has always been: people can say what they like, but the votes are the true signal. So how did the final six vote?

D1
VermillionSkies (1): notquitethere
notquitethere (2): TricMagic, TricMagic
toastercultist (2): notquitethere, Salvadore Monday
ToonyMan (1): Crystalizedmire
The Canadian kitten (5): Magma Mater, Krr1ss, ToonyMan, EuchreJack, Imp

9 votes to hammer.

Not Voting (5): VermillionSkies, toastercultist, Jim Groovester, The Canadian kitten, Agentt

There's not any info and no major consensus on D1. This day ended with a town being eliminated and a good number of players not voting. This raised an alarm bell for me and set of my suspicion of Toaster, Jim, Vermilion and Agent on D2. I eventually narrowed it down to Agentt:

D2

Crystalizedmire (8): Magma Mater, Jim Groovester, Krr1ss, ToonyMan, toastercultist, TricMagic, TricMagic, Crystalizedmire
Krr1ss (4): VermillionSkies, EuchreJack, Imp, Agentt
Agentt (2): notquitethere, notquitethere

8 votes to hammer.

Not Voting (0):

This day ended without me able to be around at EOD, as EOD was ~4AM. Kris is the alternative wagon to Crystal. Everyone votes. I don't know why toastercultist kills Crystal. I think TC really didn't understand how you're meant to play a mally OR he just wasn't given the list of who mafia were (which is cruel!). Crystal could have saved herself if I had voted for Kris, but I didn't and so she self hammered as the writing was on the wall. Imp joining Agentt in trying to make a viable second wagon looks particularly bad here.

D3

EuchreJack (2): Agentt, ToonyMan
Krr1ss (2): Imp, Salvatore Monday
Agentt (7): Krr1ss, TricMagic, EuchreJack, notquitethere, notquitethere, Jim Groovester, Magma Mater

7 votes to hammer.

Not Voting (1): toastercultist

Toony, Imp and Salvatore on the off-wagons look bad here, though Jim and Magma swapped their votes to Agentt last thing, though Jim indicated support for the wagon on Agentt earlier, and Magma had been on Agentt earlier before temporarily swapping to Euchrejack. Imp and Salvatore especially should come under fire for voting Kris who was pretty obviously not mafia. Imp's whole argument was that Kris was a serial killer. Everyone except Imp knows that SK-hunting is a massive scumtell.

D4

Magma Mater (1): Salvatore Monday
EuchreJack (6): Magma Mater, notquitethere, notquitethere, VermillionSkies, EuchreJack, TricMagic

6 votes to hammer.

Not Voting (3): Imp, Jim Groovester, ToonyMan

EJ had gathered so much residual suspicion that this day fired in very quickly. Not helped by EJ fluffing up their claims and failing to make a clear alternative case. Tric was very reckless here and eager to commit suicide. Mafia must be rubbing their hands with glee in their scumchat. Or they would if there were more than one of them left (I'm making assumptions about the setup here).

Both Jim and Toony think it must be Euchrejack as well, but avoid voting at that stage to avoid the hammer.

Imp does a lot of waffling at the end of this day, with no move to actually make a vote. In fairness, she might not see the hammer coming and thinks she has more time than she does. But I can't see in any of these posts and indication of who she actually thinks is scum.

Even now Imp is on my case but is avoiding voting, which is the same cowardly move that Toastercultist had before I goaded him into voting me earlier on in this game. If Imp is not scum, I will literally eat my hat.
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notquitethere

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Wagonometer
« Reply #1821 on: March 21, 2025, 03:22:04 pm »

EOD Target Counts

In order from most to least helpful for town (voting for scum +1, town -1, not voting or voting unknown 0, tie broken by # times voting for scum; counting Toastercultist as scum)

Jim: Voted for scum twice, failed to vote twice: 2 points

NQT: Voted for scum three times, voted for town twice (this is five because D1 double-vote was split): 1 point

Magma: Voted for scum twice, voted for town twice: 0 point

Salvatore: Voted for scum once, voted for town once, voted for unknown once (was dead during D2): 0 points.

Toony: Voted for town twice, voted for scum once, failed to vote once: -1 point.

Imp: Voted for town three times, failed to vote once: -3 points



If this analysis was run on D4:

NQT: Voted for scum three times, voted for town once (this is four because D1 double-vote was split): 2 points

Jim: Voted for scum twice, failed to vote once: 2 points

Tricmagic: Voted for scum twice, voted for unknown once: 2 points

Magma: Voted for scum twice, voted for town once: 1 point

Salvatore: Voted for scum once, voted for town once (was dead during D2): 0 points.

Toony: Voted for town twice, voted for scum once: -1 point.

Euchrejack: Voted for town twice, voted for scum once: -1 point

Vermilion: Voted town once, failed to vote once (was missing a vote on D3): -1 point

Imp: Voted for town three times: -3 points

Euchrejack and Vermilion were by no means cleared. Eliminating from that end of the pool made sense. They were both implicated, by bad picks on their part. But far and away the player with the most sus voting record is Imp. No one had grounds for thinking Tric was scum, he just wanted to burn out in a blaze of glory. Only that didn't work and now we're left with more corpses to deal with.
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ToonyMan

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Sheer Heart Attack (6 / 14)
« Reply #1822 on: March 21, 2025, 04:20:15 pm »

Pfp eating lunch at work

Fair enough points NQT I don't blame you for supporting yourself, however votes don't tell the full story since by your metric I'm quite poor even though I'm town as well as town inspected by Toastercult to back it up. This applies to other town players too with less than ideal voting like Sal who is definitely not mafia.

I was thinking of scenarios where mafia are all dead while at work today. Crystal's words to Sal in dead chat really make it feel like there's more than just Crystal and Agentt in mafia though. I have a hard time believing the game is going because of a non-mafia scum. But if this is the case it would explain the lack of mafiakills after Agentt died. Besides Magma killing Toastercult (which I have to admit is not a scummy kill) the mafia haven't tried to kill. Maybe if it is Imp they're afraid to act and so are just doing other confirmable things to look innocent.

I will say that if the game is going because of anti-town TP it's likely NQT. It would mean I'm wrong about their interactions with mafia, but it explains why they voted mafia easily (NQT doesn't care as long as they are alive), why they have a double vote plus res (to stay alive and make a lylo win easier), why mafia haven't been killing (they're all dead), and why Imp doesn't feel like mafia to me.
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notquitethere

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Alternative Threats
« Reply #1823 on: March 21, 2025, 04:21:35 pm »

Alternative Threats

In a game where scum appear especially unwilling or unable to night kill, they can only hope to win by eliminating town (or standing aside when town eliminate themselves). A few playes have floated the idea that the game is continuing because we have a non-mafia anti-town player. Imp has been especially attuned to this possibility.

So what could it be?

Second Mafia Team
(Very Rare, Requires Large Game) The alternative scumteam may take up any villainous-sounding factional name. They share the same rules and win condition as the Mafia. In the event that there is an alternative scumteam, each of the scumteams will have an alternative scumteam name, so as to properly signal to them the situation.
It's not this because neither the mally, nor the mafia flipped with an alternative scum team name.

Mafia-Ally
--(Rare) The Other-Ally could be allied to any of the alignments present. While not being of that alignment, they will win when a player that possesses that alignment wins.
It can't just be a second mally left, because mafia can no longer win if they're all dead. So it's not this.

Survivor
(Uncommon) The Survivor must be alive at the end of a certain Day number, including surviving the execution that Day, in order to win. Depending on game size this number will probably be 3, 4, or 5. If the game ends before that number they will also lose.
--(Rare) The Joint-Survivor exists as a team of two. They have the win condition of the Survivor, but modified - at least one of them must be alive at the selected time.
If it were just survivors left, the game would have ended with a town victory.

Serial Killer
(Uncommon) The Serial Killer wins when every player that is not themselves has been eliminated. If every player including themselves is dead, they will still win. They typically have some form of lethal ability to help accomplish this, though usually not so direct as the Mafia's kill.
The only other players who have demonstrated a kill are Magma (x1 day kill) and Salvatore (lovers). One single day kill is very low power for an SK, though an SK-Magma could have more in his arsenal. Making everyone lovers to try to engineer mutual destruction between town and scum is a possible SK type, but Salvator's flip was town. He could have rezzed as an SK, but Toonyman being an SK-creator who inspects as town would, I would think, be too indirect a kill method for an SK.

Another possibility is the SK has a kill but is choosing not to use it, being concerned about tracking.

Cultist
(Very Rare, Requires Large Game) The Cult win when the number of living players of their alignment equal or outnumber all non-Cult remaining living players, and there is no longer any way to stop them through kills, vote manipulation, or otherwise. As a courtesy, if there is a Cult, I guarantee you that at the start of the game there will only ever be one Cult player. The Cult player will possess a means of transforming any player that is not scum or Joint-Survivor into another Cult player. This methodology will be limited.
Toonyman could be a cultist who inspects as town, who recruits through limited resurrection. This is horrible, but possible. Imp-as-lover could win with the cult here if it was a Toony-cult.

Hunter
(Rare) The Hunter is opposed to a specific alignment decided by me. As long as that alignment loses, the Hunter wins. If their opposed target is Town then they count as anti-Town, otherwise they do not. The Hunter need not be alive to accomplish this win condition.
There could be an anti-town hunter. They wouldn't necessarily have a kill, and so could be anyone. I've never personally seen an anti-town hunter being included, as Fallacy says, it's a rare possibility.



In conclusion: the Toony/Salvatore nexus is quite a good fit for malicious third party, and helpfully enough, taking down Imp would also apparently take down Toony.
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notquitethere

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Sheer Heart Attack (6 / 14)
« Reply #1824 on: March 21, 2025, 04:27:17 pm »

Fair enough points NQT I don't blame you for supporting yourself, however votes don't tell the full story since by your metric I'm quite poor even though I'm town as well as town inspected by Toastercult to back it up. This applies to other town players too with less than ideal voting like Sal who is definitely not mafia.
You've made an argument for why some town players have a bad record, not for why some players with a bad record are town, or why you think some players with a good record are mafia.

Town can quite easily play anti-town because they don't know who is who. Scum know who is who, and have strong reasons not to play fully pro-town. Some town players (Jim, Tric, myself) are going to be strongly pro-town through making good choices.



Why do you think Salvatore tied you and Imp together? I know he's said a few things about this, but what do you think? What is it about Imp's play at all that gives you a strong town feel?
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ToonyMan

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Sheer Heart Attack (6 / 14)
« Reply #1825 on: March 21, 2025, 04:35:33 pm »

@NQT:
Side note: I think it's cute we thought about alternate scum threats at the same time.

I've written about Imp in my Day 1 analysis post, this includes good and bad points I tried to be impartial there's even good points about you in it. Please read it if you haven't it's in the spoiler bracket above my reads conclusion right before Verm died.  I can't big post right now, but when I get home I'm gonna read D2 and try to do the same analysis.

I think Sal put me with Imp because he thinks we're both town, or at least thinks I could determine if Imp is town or not.
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ToonyMan

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Sheer Heart Attack (6 / 14)
« Reply #1826 on: March 21, 2025, 04:36:57 pm »

In conclusion: the Toony/Salvatore nexus is quite a good fit for malicious third party, and helpfully enough, taking down Imp would also apparently take down Toony.
I will in fact die if Imp dies.

Unlike you with Verm.
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Salvatore Monday

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Sheer Heart Attack (6 / 14)
« Reply #1827 on: March 21, 2025, 04:45:38 pm »

It's true that Imp's voting pattern has been the worst of anyone. On the other hand, I chose Imp to visit n1 and there's nothing in the flavor that gives me the slightest reason to think "mafia" at all. I guess there's one reference to the color red I could really stretch, but it's more likely to imply that Imp is Jewish or Hindu than anything else. :P
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Imp

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Sheer Heart Attack (6 / 14)
« Reply #1828 on: March 21, 2025, 04:51:11 pm »

My mafia philosophy has always been: people can say what they like, but the votes are the true signal.

Even now Imp is on my case but is avoiding voting, which is the same cowardly move that Toastercultist had before I goaded him into voting me earlier on in this game. If Imp is not scum, I will literally eat my hat.

So, how does your magic vote signal stuff work when you literally know you're maf or some other antitown and you know you're gonna use your vote analysis?

I guess if anyone were scared or worried about your system they'd be sure to bus or something.

Eating hats may not be good for your health.

There are edible hats and even black food die.  Perhaps you will choose that.

https://anniesnoms.com/2017/10/24/witches-hat-cupcakes/

Heck, you don't even have to wait for my flip or the game to end or whenever.

https://www.instructables.com/edible-party-hat/

Edible hats of many sorts are all over the place.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTmYxMJ6Esg

Eat as many as you like, whenever.

My votes look like they do because I am me and I am town.  I don't have any magic info on who is what alignment.  My votes fall where they fall, influenced by my understanding, including meta where there is meta I can use, with each player.  And on my understanding, extremely limited but very deeply faithful, of how God might make decisions about how powerful an anti-town role might be and what kind of role might look absolutely wrong as anything but anti-town, likely solo anti-town.

You're apparently unaware I am currently voting for you - or choosing to present that as a lie.  Twice so far today, because the vote reset and we were all unvoted, I have voted for you.

I'm using every vote I currently have to vote for you.

Do you even fairly votecount me by your own 'you chose it, you're part of it' system?  Do you take into account the lies antitown told, like Toaster's "I am a cop with a green inspect" and freaking A everyone just getting off him and he still wouldn't talk even without any pressure and people still not voting him until Mater killed him?

I'm not going to get into accusations with you.  I'm not going to express my distress and distrust about what you are doing and how much it upsets me.  We went through that last game.  I am not okay with your thinking - but I had my nose rubbed in it that I am uncomfortable with your reasoning and what you miss and what you say you are thinking even when you are town.

Using my eval of others.  I think you are likely the antitown, be you mafia or anything else, that I need to hunt.  I am voting for you even if you have no idea I am or are in some weird perception-place where you don't see the same reality I do or whatever.

Death and no flip.

Looks really questionable.

I had questions before.

Verm, I am so sorry.

I wonder if that was timed, or you CHOSE to.  If you chose it, what you did for us.  Thank you either way.  I'm sorry I couldn't actually save you.

Notquitethere

I also really believed I had voted for you in my long post.  Apparently I never put the vote in there, but it sure is right after Verm dies.  I thought I was just replacing my vote from before his death.

Now I know he decided to die rather than work with you or anyone else to elim anyone but himself and you.  Furthermore, that's a LOVERS death.  Not even a standard kill, normal protections don't work on a lover's kill.

The only thing stronger he could have done to express his distrust of NQT would have been to hammer NQT, theoretically killing NQT, killing Verm too, then hitting NQT again with the lovers death - or maybe Verm was privately told that wouldn't happen.  NQT had a way to privately tell him.

Sal, you can't see into lovers chats I presume.

But Verm could see into his own lovers chat.  Verm has a very distinctive and unusual value system and playstyle.  He's almost made for partnership and teamwork, as a player, maybe as a human.  He's a very high quality person.  I don't know what he'd tell us about NQT before death if he presumed NQT would die with him and he's dying for sure.  I do know Verm loves to do things in personalized, sneaky, playful and deceptive ways that help his wincon when he sees how to do so.  And he'll lie up a storm as long as he thinks it'll help his wincon.

I prize and honor you, Verm.  All games, all alignments.  I'll see what I can do when I mark you anti-town to make sure the game stays more fun for us both.  I have some stuff about deception and making sure the games are fun for most to learn as well.
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For every trouble under the sun, there is an answer, or there is none.
If there is one, then seek until you find it.
If there is none, then never ever mind it.

Magma Mater

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Re: FBYOR 7 - Day 5 - Sheer Heart Attack (6 / 14)
« Reply #1829 on: March 21, 2025, 04:56:12 pm »

It's true that Imp's voting pattern has been the worst of anyone. On the other hand, I chose Imp to visit n1 and there's nothing in the flavor that gives me the slightest reason to think "mafia" at all. I guess there's one reference to the color red I could really stretch, but it's more likely to imply that Imp is Jewish or Hindu than anything else. :P

Can you please be more specific?
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