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Author Topic: Beginner Mafia 2: BYOR Edition - Game Over!  (Read 34857 times)

FallacyofUrist

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Re: Beginner Mafia 2: BYOR Edition - Day 2: Pecking Orders
« Reply #690 on: July 17, 2022, 10:24:58 pm »

I'm about to do my big post on Shakerag. While my gut feeling points to him being scum, I'm going to note in advance that that's not well founded on evidence in the same way my case on NJW is.

I still need to do my post on NJW's arguments with Lenglon, and NJW's 'scumhunting', but Shakerag is the current subject, so I'll start there.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Beginner Mafia 2: BYOR Edition - Day 2: Pecking Orders
« Reply #691 on: July 17, 2022, 10:33:52 pm »

Max: You're right, I am biased in Shake's favor, however, for one, he's also failing to meet the conditions I was expecting of him when I gave him the special read, similar to Egan, and for two, I am attempting to be aware of my own bias and adjust. That's actually a very large part of why I'm actively asking for others to present their cases regarding Shake, because your concern IS well-placed.
Hm. Thank you for saying that. It makes me feel a little better about this.

10, I'm tired, and more the fact that the post I quoted wasn't subtle in it's accusation of Shakerag. Despite the fact Shakerag gave reasons, they just ignored them, as usual this game. Lidku keeps doing it.
Lidku seems to be missing a lot of things and it would be good for all of us to push him over it, yes. That said... I think you would have found it more productive to quote the post where Shakerag said that and say something like "right here, pay attention", instead of making a weird metaphor. :P

I also, honestly, don't really find this as suspicious as you do, because it's so obvious. I feel like, if Lidku were scum with a veteran partner, he'd be getting coached better. You could try to sell me on a Lidku/Knightwing team (although I think Knightwing is town), but you'd also have to convince me that we're looking at the actions of a weak mafia, and I'm not sure I buy that... the crane thing seems to imply prior planning, although I guess it could've been a fluke (since we still don't even know what was up with that).

You could also try to sell me on a team with Lidku and a veteran with poor management skills (I think, of all the players, only Fallacy's management skills I've observed), or one who isn't paying much attention (Shakerag?), or just that he's been let off the hook for pure WIFOM, but you definitely need to be offering a coherent narrative here. At least in my opinion.

Actually, I think that's something we're not doing enough of as a general rule. Everyone seems to have suspicions pointing in a different direction, but I don't really see a lot of clear narratives about who the team is and what happened last night. I'm guilty of this myself, by all means, so I'm going to think on it for a bit. I encourage every other town player to do the same. If your suspicions run into a contradiction - my immediate memory runs back to Jim Groovester's post to Oliverz here as a example, yes, he was scum, but the point was still valid - then there's something wrong with your suspicions. You have to think them all the way out to find out.
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Beginner Mafia 2: BYOR Edition - Day 2: Pecking Orders
« Reply #692 on: July 17, 2022, 10:38:18 pm »

...but, I should've gone on to add:
Lidku, you don't seem to be paying a lot of attention here. From my perspective, it looks like you are tunnelled right onto TricMagic and letting everything else fall by the wayside, which is not town-positive behavior. That isn't helpful regardless of whether you are town or scum. As such, you definitely need to take my advice from the last post: if you are suspicious of TricMagic, then tell me who his partner is, what happened last night, where the crane came from (it doesn't seem related to Tric's claim, for example) and why...
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FallacyofUrist

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Re: Beginner Mafia 2: BYOR Edition - Day 2: Pecking Orders
« Reply #693 on: July 17, 2022, 10:40:32 pm »

Okay, I'm going to call myself out here. There was no real reason to consider Shakerag scum earlier. As far as I can tell, he's town, he's just playing really weakly. Essentially Shakerag is acting like not-super involved town. I feel like a lot of us may have been implicitly bandwagoning because 'everyone else things Shakerag is scum'. But... what's scummy about him?

He does appear to be contributing, just not in a really energetic fashion. But since there's an absence of true scum tells, as far as I've seen? Personally I say we need to put some pressure on him still, but I'm tentatively reading him weak town for now.

But if it's not Shakerag, then who is it? I'll need to take a closer look around and such.
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FallacyofUrist

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Re: Beginner Mafia 2: BYOR Edition - Day 2: Pecking Orders
« Reply #694 on: July 17, 2022, 10:45:02 pm »

Lidku, you don't seem to be paying a lot of attention here. From my perspective, it looks like you are tunnelled right onto TricMagic and letting everything else fall by the wayside, which is not town-positive behavior. That isn't helpful regardless of whether you are town or scum. As such, you definitely need to take my advice from the last post: if you are suspicious of TricMagic, then tell me who his partner is, what happened last night, where the crane came from (it doesn't seem related to Tric's claim, for example) and why...
I'll also note that this is similar to my own newbie behavior. Picking a single target, then latching on like a lamprey and refusing to consider anything else? That's classic Fallacy. It's not good but it is understandable.
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FallacyofUrist

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Re: Beginner Mafia 2: BYOR Edition - Day 2: Pecking Orders
« Reply #695 on: July 17, 2022, 10:55:34 pm »

For the sake of fairness, let me break things down for why I read Shakerag weak-town.



A surprisingly high level of activity. Shakerag has made 104 posts since the start of the game. A lot of them are consecutive and building on the same point, or joke-based, but that's not bad even with that in consideration.

Mildly inquisitive attitude.
And that response is a pretty safe response if -you- were mafia, to be honest.  Safe, but not optimal.  My vote stays.  Town would be less defensive.

A reasonable degree of engagement with other players. Almost every post seems to be a direct interaction. The ones that aren't about getting drunk, at least.

There's a sense of purpose overall. I'd still be willing to consider someone like that scum, aside from the final point.

Shakerag is (apparently) not arguing in bad faith. There's a lack of the manipulations I've seen in NJW's posts. Shakerag is contributing (weakly), but not throwing a wrench into the town's activity. So I'm tentatively willing to say no, let's not vote Shakerag today.
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Lenglon

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Re: Beginner Mafia 2: BYOR Edition - Day 2: Pecking Orders
« Reply #696 on: July 17, 2022, 11:17:57 pm »

Everyone: As a reminder, I am planning on placing my vote tomorrow, probably in the morning. If you have any final cases to make, I suggest making them tonight if you can.
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Lenglon

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Re: Beginner Mafia 2: BYOR Edition - Day 2: Pecking Orders
« Reply #697 on: July 17, 2022, 11:25:31 pm »

EBWOP: NJW: I have noticed your usual activity pattern, and will wait for either me to be about to become busy (tomorrow will be fairly busy for me which is part of why I'm going to probably vote in the morning) or for you to have made any cases you want to make and explicitly say that you're done posting for the day before I place my vote. If it's the morning and I see nothing I'll be writing my vote in notepad while I wait, and will simply copy-paste it in when either you're done or I run out of time before I become busy (unless of course what you say convinces me to change my mind). I figure this is a reasonable courtesy since you seem to be most active in the early morning and probably don't even see my above post right now.
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NJW2000

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Re: Beginner Mafia 2: BYOR Edition - Day 2: Pecking Orders
« Reply #698 on: July 18, 2022, 08:28:55 am »

Right, here comes the slog and the massive back and forth trying to take each other down. Frankly I'm not the most confident my abilities here, but I'll do my best.

One thing I want to note straight away is that there's a difference between 'not doing x' and 'opposite of x'.

NJW2000 was not saying 'FoU isn't scumhunting', he was not saying 'FoU is scumhunting'. Refusing to acknowledge positive points is different than asserting their opposite.

In any case I now need to make another mega post with all the replies and such to what's already been said.

Then another one for the NJW-Lenglon Day 1 scuffles.

Then another one for Shakerag.

Long deep sigh. Alright, let's get on with it.
I have not been trying to take you down. I didn't want to engage with you at all on this stuff today, I wanted to try and find scum becuase basically all I can do at this point is find an amazing case against scum. I didn't think you were scum at the start of the day. Now I'm not so sure. I'm starting to think you can't be acting in good faith here, saying stuff like "Right, here comes the slog and the massive back and forth trying to take each other down", when that isn't what's been happening.

Possibility to consider if I flip today: Lenglon/Fal team, with Fal godfather or Lenglon having an false inspect ability. FoU's desire to get my eliminated and Lenglon's extremely strong interest in the fight today would make sense... me flipping town would then be taken to clear FoU.

So just want to state that Webadict very explicitly stated that the inspect result I had was not reliable and can be changed by powers. Both Lenglon and FoU should be seen as potentially able to manipulate it.



I'm going to put off defending... that seems like a well that won't run dry, so I'm justified taking a break from it. I'm not particularly worried about being eliminated in any case, and my flip may help people with the game. I'm not going to address any more of FoU's insistence that I should have explicitly acknowledged he was scumhunting and being active yesterday before voting him... I've responded to that, and I'm tired of repeating myself. I will look at the other points he raises, but that one I'm done thinking about.

First, I'm going to post the closest I can get to a case after wasting hours of my time with this.


Ok. A Case. Here's why TricMagic is quite possibly scum, based on his attack on me and some other factors.

Spoiler: the case on Tric (click to show/hide)


That's... what I got from rereading the thread. It basically boils down to Tric making a very dubious large post, and choosing his targets in advance today.
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Shakerag

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Re: Beginner Mafia 2: BYOR Edition - Day 2: Pecking Orders
« Reply #699 on: July 18, 2022, 10:23:16 am »

Is it just me or does anyone else think it's odd everyone is talking around me, but not engaging me?  Or am I just blind and missing direct questions?  I -did- just order new glasses for the first time in years.

NJW2000

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Re: Beginner Mafia 2: BYOR Edition - Day 2: Pecking Orders
« Reply #700 on: July 18, 2022, 10:52:09 am »

Is it just me or does anyone else think it's odd everyone is talking around me, but not engaging me?  Or am I just blind and missing direct questions?  I -did- just order new glasses for the first time in years.
As I kinda started, or was near the start, of a fairly general interest in eliminating you, I'll take a sec to answer this

I think it's because you haven't said much today? I don't have a question about the alignment-inspecting bodyguard action, and if it's real asking a lot about the mechanics of it might actually be scum-sided... I just think it's pretty suspect that you managed to both confirm and protect the person who happens to have the single vote today.

Shit... I did forget that Lenglon/FoU probably can't be true though, so ignore that in my last post.
Given Shake's inspect-bodyguard... it's quite unlikely. This is a bastard game though, so vOv

I assumed your vote was meant to be signalled as a low-commitment gut read. Do you want people to start taking it very seriously?
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Beginner Mafia 2: BYOR Edition - Day 2: Pecking Orders
« Reply #701 on: July 18, 2022, 12:33:04 pm »

Shit... I did forget that Lenglon/FoU probably can't be true though, so ignore that in my last post.
Given Shake's inspect-bodyguard... it's quite unlikely. This is a bastard game though, so vOv
Actually... I woke up this morning thinking exactly that it's totally possible. Think about this:
Fallacy claims to be town with an auto that counts him as mafia, and it was proven that he can act through a blockade that blocks only town players.
If he's telling the truth, that demonstrates that this game has abilities that let someone count as the other team for the purpose of other abilities; and it could make sense that, if the town had one, the mafia might as well.
If he's making it up, then it's possible and even likely that he got the idea from a real ability, perhaps one his partner might have.

So Fallacy's claim, to me, makes it feasible that Shakerag's bodyguard claim could both be true, yet not confirm the target.

Needless to say, this is the worst possible scenario for the day, so I hope it's not the case, but I can't see it as ruled out.
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Lenglon

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Re: Beginner Mafia 2: BYOR Edition - Day 2: Pecking Orders
« Reply #702 on: July 18, 2022, 01:02:08 pm »

Max: NJW's claimed information gained at day start seemed correct in every way except the number of shots. If NJW had targeted you instead of FoU, potentially with a copy random ability or something similar, would it have come up that way?
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Maximum Spin

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Re: Beginner Mafia 2: BYOR Edition - Day 2: Pecking Orders
« Reply #703 on: July 18, 2022, 01:11:40 pm »

Max: NJW's claimed information gained at day start seemed correct in every way except the number of shots. If NJW had targeted you instead of FoU, potentially with a copy random ability or something similar, would it have come up that way?
I don't fully follow the question. Would what have come up?
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Lenglon

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Re: Beginner Mafia 2: BYOR Edition - Day 2: Pecking Orders
« Reply #704 on: July 18, 2022, 01:23:03 pm »

Max: I was doing my final re-read and getting ready to vote NJW and realized an oddity in last night's actions. I'm currently mentally in a rapid-pivot and am having some trouble resolving the sequence of events and motivations for them. currently kicking myself for not resolving this in my head fully earlier. I however also now realize that my question to you was nonsense as-phrased.
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