I think you underestimate the rate science is advancing at, and the rate it will advance. 30 years from now, if we don't have at least basic AI, I will be dumbfounded. Think of the difference between computers 30 years ago, and computers now. There ya go.
As well, I mean, hell, human brain only stores 3 terabytes, but we think we're intelligent.
Find a better term, Andres. Because what it seems like you mean is 'any morality system that isn't mine', but what you're saying is 'almost literally impossible to understand system of ethics that has no basis in the way we perceive reality as far as can be told' when you use that term.
First, we are advancing pretty fast but there is absolutely zero reason to assume that our current computer development will somehow lead to AIs. You are vastly underestimating the difficulties of making AIs and the powers of the human brain. The brain has somewhere between 15 and 33 billion neurons, according to Wikipedia. The source Andres states all seem to believe it only has 1 billion, and I have seen even higher numbers in other locations. The brain is much, much more advanced then any computer we could come up with in a hundred years, let alone thirty. Even if each neuron held one byte, we would hold more information in our heads then any computer we could make in the next hundred years.
And he is also right. Even if we stacked every hard drive ever built together and plugged them into each other, it wouldn't be an AI. Just a very large storage bank for information.
Hm. Point still remains. You don't need that much storage capacity to have an AI, either; that's the absolute upper limit, like when the memory contest people would gradually go insane from having memorized and connected to much stuff so they'd get memory overload from associations.
....Wh...what? When has anyone ever gone insane from having memorized so much stuff the overloaded? When has anyone even assumed that was possible?
If we can get the memory to interact with itself and self-code, ta-da, you have an AI. now just make it stop being so buggy and you'll have replicated what nature already accomplished.
....No, no you don't. Do...you understand anything about coding? Anything about memory? Anything about AI? From what you have said, I can assume you do not.
Also, it's still about 2.5 to 3 petabytes, and they're just one order of magnitude, computer-wise(where that means 1000) so while they might have gotten the prefix wrong, they were right otherwise.
As I said before, every source that states that also states the human brain only has one billion neurons. Other sources state that the brain has anywhere from 33 billion to 100 billion. As it is said, "There are as many neurons in the human brain as there are stars in the milky way". If we assume all your sources are correct even after making such a simple and absolutely glaring mistake, we would have over 300 petabytes (max), and I still find that unlikely low.
We have basic AI now you know. There are robots that learn from example.
They aren't really the kind of "AI" he is talking about, and if we where to include anything that could be called an "AI" we might as well point out vidiogames exist.
In conclusion, you are both vastly oversimplifying the difficulties of making a "artificial general intelligence" machine and vastly underestimating the human mind. From what I can tell, even the very, very optimistic beliefs of people who know what they are talking about don't thing we can have anything like it with in thirty years.
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