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Author Topic: Additional CIA japes [DPRK Thread]  (Read 515117 times)

Chaoswizkid

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Assuming an invasion of SK-US joint operation, and with the knowledge or at least very credible assumption that NK has nuclear weapons,

Situation 1: NK launches nuclear warheads using missiles.
Result: Mobile missile defense, which would be deployed using the above assumption, would neutralize the missiles. It is unlikely this system would be overwhelmed as the NK likely does not have enough missiles or nuclear warheads.

Situation 2: NK launches nuclear warheads using a big gun.
Result: Lots of people at least within the US military would be carefully monitoring every sector of NK using satellite imaging. While this wouldn't be terribly effective during normal combat, troop movements and possible strength would still be observed and estimated. By the logic that Big Gun is Big, it would be something that is very difficult to hide without making it rather obvious, especially with the resources the NK has at its disposal. Once Big Gun is Big is located, which is likely before it is able to fire since it would have to be deployed from being camouflaged (otherwise it'd almost certainly be very obvious in the first place and easily identifiable), aircraft on-call will be able to strike at the target. Strike aircraft would likely be on-call for specifically any situation that might involve the NK deploying nuclear weapons.

Situation 3: NK detonates a nuke in its own territory in a secure location.
Result: Boom. There's not a lot that can prevent this from happening. The location of the nuke must be known beforehand, the method of activation should be known in order to best plan how to neutralize the threat by either securing the nuke or securing the activation method, must be done way before they would think of normally activating it, etc. Very unlikely. This is the most dangerous outcome because there's no real plausible way to deal with it and it is certainly a threat.
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Beast Tamer

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Writing paper now. I'm focusing on North Korea's cult like fixation on their supreme leaders and drawing parallels to infamous cults such as the Manson Family, Heaven's Gate, and the People's Temple. Going to point out how many lives were lost due to the formations of these cults, and ask what they would have done if they had access to nuclear material. Any other notable cults I could include?

-snip-
Situation 3: NK detonates a nuke in its own territory in a secure location.
Result: Boom. There's not a lot that can prevent this from happening. The location of the nuke must be known beforehand, the method of activation should be known in order to best plan how to neutralize the threat by either securing the nuke or securing the activation method, must be done way before they would think of normally activating it, etc. Very unlikely. This is the most dangerous outcome because there's no real plausible way to deal with it and it is certainly a threat.

In that case it would actually be reasonable to assume the nuke would be between Prongyang and the DMZ. In case of land invasion press button. To avoid that the military would likely invade by sea or come from an unexpected direction- like south from the border of China.
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LordSlowpoke

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like south from the border of China.

what.
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Descan

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See, what they'll do is set up a GIANT FAN LINE, blowing south across the DMZ, and then set off the nuke. The fans will affect the wind currents, and send the fallout southwards.

:D
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Chaoswizkid

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Writing paper now. I'm focusing on North Korea's cult like fixation on their supreme leaders and drawing parallels to infamous cults such as the Manson Family, Heaven's Gate, and the People's Temple. Going to point out how many lives were lost due to the formations of these cults, and ask what they would have done if they had access to nuclear material. Any other notable cults I could include?

-snip-
Situation 3: NK detonates a nuke in its own territory in a secure location.
Result: Boom. There's not a lot that can prevent this from happening. The location of the nuke must be known beforehand, the method of activation should be known in order to best plan how to neutralize the threat by either securing the nuke or securing the activation method, must be done way before they would think of normally activating it, etc. Very unlikely. This is the most dangerous outcome because there's no real plausible way to deal with it and it is certainly a threat.

In that case it would actually be reasonable to assume the nuke would be between Prongyang and the DMZ. In case of land invasion press button. To avoid that the military would likely invade by sea or come from an unexpected direction- like south from the border of China.

That's in the case of a tactical nuke, in which case you'd be on to something. However, when I wrote that I was considering something more akin to the suicide route of just blowing up the whole capitol while the armies of your enemies are in the city. This seems even more likely in the situation that air currents on the Korean peninsula apparently travel north so any use of nuclear weapons on their home turf would only be considered in a last-ditch, kill-as-many-as-possible event. Then it doesn't matter what SK-US forces would do to circumvent it, because attempting to assault any target of any amount of importance carries the threat of tons of people dying, soldiers and civilians alike. At this point the war would never have an invasion and the SK-US forces would just beef up the border and conduct air and drone strikes until the NK government folds, which is probably what would theoretically happen anyway because US military tactics like high-mobility, rapid warfare that would almost certainly not be possible in an invasion of the NK. If SK-US forces actually did invade, in order to undermine the threat of local-use nuclear weapons, the entire war would turn into a siege since the cities would be untargetable and SK-US forces would seize as much farmland as possible in order to starve the cities into submission. Again, against the philosophy and ethics of the modern US military, so that's also unlikely.
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Beast Tamer

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like south from the border of China.

what.

I mean to say they could land north of Prongyang, south of the Chinese border, then march south to Prongyang.
Writing paper now. I'm focusing on North Korea's cult like fixation on their supreme leaders and drawing parallels to infamous cults such as the Manson Family, Heaven's Gate, and the People's Temple. Going to point out how many lives were lost due to the formations of these cults, and ask what they would have done if they had access to nuclear material. Any other notable cults I could include?

-snip-
Situation 3: NK detonates a nuke in its own territory in a secure location.
Result: Boom. There's not a lot that can prevent this from happening. The location of the nuke must be known beforehand, the method of activation should be known in order to best plan how to neutralize the threat by either securing the nuke or securing the activation method, must be done way before they would think of normally activating it, etc. Very unlikely. This is the most dangerous outcome because there's no real plausible way to deal with it and it is certainly a threat.

In that case it would actually be reasonable to assume the nuke would be between Prongyang and the DMZ. In case of land invasion press button. To avoid that the military would likely invade by sea or come from an unexpected direction- like south from the border of China.

That's in the case of a tactical nuke, in which case you'd be on to something. However, when I wrote that I was considering something more akin to the suicide route of just blowing up the whole capitol while the armies of your enemies are in the city. This seems even more likely in the situation that air currents on the Korean peninsula apparently travel north so any use of nuclear weapons on their home turf would only be considered in a last-ditch, kill-as-many-as-possible event. Then it doesn't matter what SK-US forces would do to circumvent it, because attempting to assault any target of any amount of importance carries the threat of tons of people dying, soldiers and civilians alike. At this point the war would never have an invasion and the SK-US forces would just beef up the border and conduct air and drone strikes until the NK government folds, which is probably what would theoretically happen anyway because US military tactics like high-mobility, rapid warfare that would almost certainly not be possible in an invasion of the NK. If SK-US forces actually did invade, in order to undermine the threat of local-use nuclear weapons, the entire war would turn into a siege since the cities would be untargetable and SK-US forces would seize as much farmland as possible in order to starve the cities into submission. Again, against the philosophy and ethics of the modern US military, so that's also unlikely.

I see your point, Modern Military Tactics are so fascinating. Although, a more viable alternative to holding onto the farmland would be to burn it all- scorched earth method.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2014, 03:20:52 pm by Beast Tamer »
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Sheb

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Situation 2: NK launches nuclear warheads using a big gun.
Result: Lots of people at least within the US military would be carefully monitoring every sector of NK using satellite imaging. While this wouldn't be terribly effective during normal combat, troop movements and possible strength would still be observed and estimated. By the logic that Big Gun is Big, it would be something that is very difficult to hide without making it rather obvious, especially with the resources the NK has at its disposal. Once Big Gun is Big is located, which is likely before it is able to fire since it would have to be deployed from being camouflaged (otherwise it'd almost certainly be very obvious in the first place and easily identifiable), aircraft on-call will be able to strike at the target. Strike aircraft would likely be on-call for specifically any situation that might involve the NK deploying nuclear weapons.

What? Of course not, since the target would be static (Seoul), you could get away with burying it in a hillside somewhere. Just think V-3 underground. You'd just need to flip a hatch open at the end. And even if it was discovered (and frankly, in case of invasion you'll have dozens if not hundreds of guns all shooting, I'm not sure that one would be easy to find), with nukes you only need one shot.
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Culise

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Writing paper now. I'm focusing on North Korea's cult like fixation on their supreme leaders and drawing parallels to infamous cults such as the Manson Family, Heaven's Gate, and the People's Temple. Going to point out how many lives were lost due to the formations of these cults, and ask what they would have done if they had access to nuclear material. Any other notable cults I could include?
Aum Shinrikyo might be viable, since it's a cult that has actually used weapons classified as WMDs in an act of terror - they released Sarin gas into the Tokyo Metro back in 1995.  Subsequent raids discovered stockpiles of anthrax, Ebola, conventional weapons, a military assault helicopter, and enough chemicals to produce sufficient Sarin to kill four million people (assuming a more efficient delivery platform than they actually used in the subway attack).  The Branch Dravidians might also be an option depending on how your teacher remembers the Waco Siege, and the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda has been variously described as a cult. 
« Last Edit: February 12, 2014, 03:34:02 pm by Culise »
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Writing paper now. I'm focusing on North Korea's cult like fixation on their supreme leaders and drawing parallels to infamous cults such as the Manson Family, Heaven's Gate, and the People's Temple. Going to point out how many lives were lost due to the formations of these cults, and ask what they would have done if they had access to nuclear material. Any other notable cults I could include?
Movement for the Restoration of the Ten Commandments of God (Mass Suicide/Homicide), Aleph/Aum Shinrikyo (Terrorism, Mass Murder), Children of God/Family of Love/The Family (Kidnapping, Forced Membership), Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (Child Abuse, Polygamy, Racism, Cult of Personality), House of Yahweh (Child Abuse, Child Labor, Sexual Abuse, Cult of Personality), and the list just wouldn't be complete without Scientology (Financial Scam, Copyright Trolling, Member Abuse, Murder, Harassment, Slander, Brainwashing).
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Beast Tamer

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Writing paper now. I'm focusing on North Korea's cult like fixation on their supreme leaders and drawing parallels to infamous cults such as the Manson Family, Heaven's Gate, and the People's Temple. Going to point out how many lives were lost due to the formations of these cults, and ask what they would have done if they had access to nuclear material. Any other notable cults I could include?
Aum Shinrikyo might be viable, since it's a cult that has actually used weapons classified as WMDs in an act of terror - they released Sarin gas into the Tokyo Metro back in 1995.  Subsequent raids discovered stockpiles of anthrax, Ebola, conventional weapons, a military assault helicopter, and enough chemicals to produce sufficient Sarin to kill four million people (assuming a more efficient delivery platform than they actually used in the subway attack).  The Branch Dravidians might also be an option depending on how your teacher remembers the Waco Siege, and the Lord's Resistance Army in Uganda has been variously described as a cult. 
Writing paper now. I'm focusing on North Korea's cult like fixation on their supreme leaders and drawing parallels to infamous cults such as the Manson Family, Heaven's Gate, and the People's Temple. Going to point out how many lives were lost due to the formations of these cults, and ask what they would have done if they had access to nuclear material. Any other notable cults I could include?
Movement for the Restoration of the Ten Commandments of God (Mass Suicide/Homicide), Aleph/Aum Shinrikyo (Terrorism, Mass Murder), Children of God/Family of Love/The Family (Kidnapping, Forced Membership), Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (Child Abuse, Polygamy, Racism, Cult of Personality), House of Yahweh (Child Abuse, Child Labor, Sexual Abuse, Cult of Personality), and the list just wouldn't be complete without Scientology (Financial Scam, Copyright Trolling, Member Abuse, Murder, Harassment, Slander, Brainwashing).

Thanks for the input. Out of the original three I have chosen the People's Temple, with some consideration on involving the Manson Family. That previous sentence could never be taken out of context.
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Sheb

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Taiping Rebellion, where 20 millions died because some guy though he was the brother of Christ.
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Chaoswizkid

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Situation 2: NK launches nuclear warheads using a big gun.
Result: Lots of people at least within the US military would be carefully monitoring every sector of NK using satellite imaging. While this wouldn't be terribly effective during normal combat, troop movements and possible strength would still be observed and estimated. By the logic that Big Gun is Big, it would be something that is very difficult to hide without making it rather obvious, especially with the resources the NK has at its disposal. Once Big Gun is Big is located, which is likely before it is able to fire since it would have to be deployed from being camouflaged (otherwise it'd almost certainly be very obvious in the first place and easily identifiable), aircraft on-call will be able to strike at the target. Strike aircraft would likely be on-call for specifically any situation that might involve the NK deploying nuclear weapons.

What? Of course not, since the target would be static (Seoul), you could get away with burying it in a hillside somewhere. Just think V-3 underground. You'd just need to flip a hatch open at the end. And even if it was discovered (and frankly, in case of invasion you'll have dozens if not hundreds of guns all shooting, I'm not sure that one would be easy to find), with nukes you only need one shot.

Oh, gotcha. Yeah, if the target is static then that does change how things would likely play out. As for it being discovered, I was basically saying that the observers would not be watching all of the gun battles directly. Transmission delay on any information that's tactically relevant means that satellite observation would play a backseat to pretty much every other method, so satellite observation would be focused on strategically-relevant information: where are the large groups of enemy forces, what are they doing, where are the artillery emplacements (if they moved since previous observation), does it look like they're deploying anything related to nuclear weapons? They wouldn't even be looking at the battles. Then, after discovery, I was taking into account the deployment time from camouflage, but if we're going with fixed, pre-aimed, embedded artillery, then you're right, it doesn't matter if it's discovered because the shot will be fired as soon as or sooner than anyone will see the gun.
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10ebbor10

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Assuming an invasion of SK-US joint operation, and with the knowledge or at least very credible assumption that NK has nuclear weapons,

Situation 1: NK launches nuclear warheads using missiles.
Result: Mobile missile defense, which would be deployed using the above assumption, would neutralize the missiles. It is unlikely this system would be overwhelmed as the NK likely does not have enough missiles or nuclear warheads.
Anti missile weaponry isn't perfect. Even the best systems only have a 75%-80% success rate* for intercepting missile weaponry. After all, a ballistic weapon is pretty stealthy, once the burn stage has been completed.

*Don't ask me where I got this number, can't quite remember

You're also forgetting the chance for Nuclear suicide bombing. Place a nuke in a submarine, float it under the closest US fleet (Sub will go undetected as it can stay deep in the water, and doesn't need to open hatches to fire it's torpedo's, for example) and detonate. A few weapons detonated in such fashion can eliminate concentrated US fleet presence in the near Pacific.

You can replace the same scenario with a pick-up truck and Seoul.
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Beast Tamer

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Here's the rough draft of my essay.

   
Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Did I convince any of you?
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My Name is Immaterial

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While it's good, I came to a different conclusion. If the Americans had not taken the people with them, no one would have died. Of course they didn't know that he would have everyone commit suicide, but if NK takes a similar stance, then the best thing is to take out the leadership and the media and then move in with peaceful intentions. Otherwise, we'll see a guerrilla movement with the manpower of an entire country.[/speculation]
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