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[scriver]

On second thought, I didn't mean to bring the thread ofv-topic with my shitposting, I was just bored at home. Back to Venezuela!

[LordBaal]

Apparently there are rumors Maduro want's to send his terrorist militias called "colectivos" (groups of what's basically are orks on bikes) to attack the US embassy. Since they aren't officially affiliated to anyone formally he could simply wash his hands and say it's the "people" of Venezuela fighting against the evil Empire. This would be monumentally stupid I think.

[smjjames]

'monumentially' would be an understatement. Ironically though, the spectre of Benghazi is hanging over the whole thing and what you're describing sounds a lot like Benghazi.

Also, NYT article with better Russia details. While Russia is being hypocritical as fuck in talking about international laws and norms (to be fair though, in some ways, the US is also hypocritical as fuck on the same thing), there does seem to be a bit of 'Stop and think before you do something rash that you'll regret!' in their tone.

Also2, Teneb (or any other Brazillians), is Bolsonaro still itching for some kind of fight with Venezuela? because this sounds like something that he'd jump into the fray.

[Teneb]

Also2, Teneb (or any other Brazillians), is Bolsonaro still itching for some kind of fight with Venezuela? because this sounds like something that he'd jump into the fray.

Unknown. Maduro is one of his bogeymen (the other is the now-defunct FARC that he still insists exists as a guerrilla, because of course).

The thing about political bogeymen is that those who use them don't actually want to fight them, because they can't be used as "THE ENEMY, FEAR IT, ONLY I CAN PROTECT YOU FROM IT".


Also on source-less news because no articles in english I could find (well, there's pt-br ones):
-Gay Federal Deputy Jean Willis not only abdicated from both his current and upcoming mandate, but left the country and won't be coming back. Reason being that he and his family have been receiving very real death threats since Dilma's fall and he claims that the government, both old and current, haven't done anything about it.

-Minister of Women, Family and Human Rights (who is totally not a crazed zealot), is readying a... damn it's hard to describe it in english; sort of a temporary decree that has the power of a law for 120 days until congress approves (then it becomes permanent) or rejects it, regarding home schooling. When questioned in interview about how the progress of kids in home-schooling will be monitored, she just said they're discussing it, but will rely on people reporting stuff to the governmental institution that handles stuff like child protection and so on. For whatever reason I cannot find a page about it despite just seeing it on tv.

EDIT: Regarding Venezuela again... while I have no love for Maduro, or his oppositors for that matter, I think that Guaidó declaring himself president without being chosen by the people themselves is highly problematic and concerning.

[smjjames]

Sounds like some sort of executive order or emergency measure sort of thing.

[LordBaal]

Well, he was elected as deputy. Also he got elected to be president of the national assembly by his peers. He's also following the constitution to the letter.

Maduro's "reelection" was made out of the correct times, with an electoral college that has it's judges corrupted and publicly partial to the cartel and with their periods long expired.

Also Guiadó didn't just declared himself, literally tens of millions of us took the streets of the country that day to show him support.

Also Teneb, the farc is still a very real thing. It might not have the might that once had, but the fact they publicly "lay down their arms" doesn't mean all of them did or they still don't enforce their will through violence. ELN is still at large too.

[Teneb]

Well, he was elected as deputy. Also he got elected to be president of the national assembly by his peers. He's also following the constitution to the letter.

Maduro's "reelection" was made out of the correct times, with an electoral college that has it's judges corrupted and publicly partial to the cartel and with their periods long expired.

Also Guiadó didn't just declared himself, literally tens of millions of us took the streets of the country that day to show him support.

Also Teneb, the farc is still a very real thing. It might not have the might that once had, but the fact they publicly "lay down their arms" doesn't mean all of them did or they still don't enforce their will through violence. ELN is still at large too.

I am not saying Maduro is legitimate, since you said yourself that it was an Electoral College and those are always undemocratic bullshit. But uh... elected by other politicians? Also bullshit.

It's nice that he actually has popular support, but did he, specifically he, got that support before his fellow congressfolks named him president? Because that's my concern. That your countrymen are failing to see something concerning because of the hate for the Ripe President.

Re: Farc: Yeah, but FARC is now a political party, yet the election propaganda acted as if they were still in their old, jungle-stalking form. As in, as if they had never laid down arms officially, and etc. Which is straight-up fear-mongering.

[LordBaal]

Well, he was elected as deputy. Also he got elected to be president of the national assembly by his peers. He's also following the constitution to the letter.

Maduro's "reelection" was made out of the correct times, with an electoral college that has it's judges corrupted and publicly partial to the cartel and with their periods long expired.

Also Guiadó didn't just declared himself, literally tens of millions of us took the streets of the country that day to show him support.

Also Teneb, the farc is still a very real thing. It might not have the might that once had, but the fact they publicly "lay down their arms" doesn't mean all of them did or they still don't enforce their will through violence. ELN is still at large too.

I am not saying Maduro is legitimate, since you said yourself that it was an Electoral College and those are always undemocratic bullshit.

Maybe my words weren't properly chosen. Is not not an electoral college like the one in USA, it's simply the regulatory organization. However the vote is still direct. Thing is the authorities of this organ have their periods expired already so many years ago, but since they are public supporters of the Cartel they haven't been replaced.

But uh... elected by other politicians? Also bullshit.

It's nice that he actually has popular support, but did he, specifically he, got that support before his fellow congressfolks named him president? Because that's my concern. That your countrymen are failing to see something concerning because of the hate for the Ripe President.

He didn't got elected as president of the republic by his peers. He got elected president of the national assembly. However the constitution points out that when the president can't be sworn (in this case because there weren't even real elections) the president of the national assembly gets to be a temporary president of the republic too. It's not an election or choice, it's law.

[Teneb]

Alright, then it was a failure in communications between us.

From what I'm gathering here, he needs to get an election going as soon as possible (which I imagine is when Maduro is no longer on the chair), right?

[LordBaal]

Alright, then it was a failure in communications between us.

From what I'm gathering here, he needs to get an election going as soon as possible (which I imagine is when Maduro is no longer on the chair), right?

Exactly, the idea is that he gets to be in power only temporary for less than a year, until the crisis is over and free, transparent and real elections can be done.

[feelotraveller]

Also on source-less news because no articles in english I could find (well, there's pt-br ones):
-Gay Federal Deputy Jean Willis not only abdicated from both his current and upcoming mandate, but left the country and won't be coming back. Reason being that he and his family have been receiving very real death threats since Dilma's fall and he claims that the government, both old and current, haven't done anything about it.

There's this:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/24/jean-wyllys-brazils-openly-gay-congressman-leaves-job-country-amid-death-threats
Since I don't read any form of portuguese, brazillian or otherwise, I can't tell if the content is the same beyond reporting the same event.

[LordBaal]

After it's speach today on Bolivar's Square in Chacao, the president Guaidó simply left strolling in the street, walking like a person without fear of anything.

Maduro can't pop his head freely around the corner without being insulted. He need to clean the street of people before going out.

[Dorsidwarf]

Strange, all the US outlets were reporting earlier today that Guaido is in hiding, in fear for his life from Maduro, and that the US is preparing to send him lots of "funds".

I guess its the difference in narrative incentive, US readers always prefer an underdog


Edit:

What was the deal with the elections anyway? As far as I can tell from the unclear reports, it seems that the opposition encouraged all its supportersto boycott the election (thereby increasing Nasty M's vote share) then turned around and said "look! Maduro has a much bigger margin than he should have! Rigged!"

I'm fairly sure thats a misunderstanding, but what was actually going on?

[Reelya]

What was the deal with the elections anyway? As far as I can tell from the unclear reports, it seems that the opposition encouraged all its supportersto boycott the election (thereby increasing Nasty M's vote share) then turned around and said "look! Maduro has a much bigger margin than he should have! Rigged!"

I'm fairly sure thats a misunderstanding, but what was actually going on?

It's not a misunderstanding, that's entirely what happened. It's a pattern they've repeated over and over. They push things as far as they go, to get a reaction (like setting fire to cars or starting riots) then if they get any security force reaction they go "see? they're fascists!"

Maduro is no saint, but many of the hardline opposition are more or less far-right card-carrying fascists in all but name. This is the thing that's the most worrying outcome: if they tear down the current state but the wrong people take the reins.

Remember, a Venezuelan government prior to Chavez carried out a large-scale massacre of protestors back in 1992. The death toll estimates vary from "official" estimate of 300, to human-rights group estimates of 3000. These are the people who want back into power, except now they're more radicalized with far-right activists than before.

When the 2002 coup against Chavez happened, the police, who were loyal to the previous regime (and many still are, as many of the police still predate the Chavez years) who carried out masscares were just straight up  shooting people in the street. There is footage. The question is: are they going to restrain themselves or is there going to a purge of all supporters of the socialist party (which is, you know, half the country) and all socialist party associated programs such as the foodbanks and free health clinics?

In 2002 the coup government just outright (it's on film) abolished the constitution, human rights laws, the parliament and the supreme court among other things. There's no other word for what was left than "dictatorship" when the military installs a ruler and eliminates all other organs of government. The opposition has been big on "amnesty" for everyone involved in that coup, because many of them are the same politicians now that are opposing Maduro. D'ya trust the straight-up the 1930s style fascist coup-plotters any more than you trust Maduro, that's the question here. Sure, maybe this new president guy is ok, IDK. But plenty of the people who are on his side of politics are definitely not ok. You think Trump supporters are bad? Some of these right-wing Venezeulan "opposition" guys have links with the Colombian death squads.

There's very strong evidence (documentary evidence plus direct eyewitness testimony from a reporter for CNN Spanish) that the Venezuela right-wing secretly organized a mass shooting of their own supporters back in 2002 as the justification for the 2002 coup. The CNN Spanish reporter said on film that the coup-leaders pre-recorded their denunciation of the shootings several hours before the march actually happened, including details such as that it was marchers who came under sniper fire. Then, one of the march leaders order a sudden unexpected change in route and despite disagreement, was adamant that the right-wing supporters must take that route. It was only after this route-change that the marchers came under sniper fire, and then they played the general's video denouncing "sniper fire on marchers" on TV that they'd pre-recorded. They needed to pre-record their "outrage" at the shootings because those generals needed to be in position to carry out the coup itself. This was definitely their "burning the Reichstag" moment. These are guys willing to murder their own supporters if it can be used as justification to seize power. Sprinkling some neo-nazis into a protest to provoke the police into responding is everyday low-grade stuff for these people.

Sure, Maduro is a terrible leader. but ... seriously, you're expecting me to trust these people as the alternative. It's like "mussolini sucks, so why not get Hitler to take over?"

[LordBaal]

Well not quite. Yes there was a boycott but as I said it was made mostly out of the fact the elections over being rigged to no end were illegal, out of the time frame and honestly I could be here all night writing what was wrong with them.

Also, strictly speaking, there are not right wing parties in Venezuela, we have center-left and far left.