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[notquitethere]

ughhhhh

I'm tired, what's happening this game? I'm only vaguely technically skimming, but it looks like you're taking this seriously. Which is something I really really don't want to do.

Nothing serious has happened, it's just high comedy.

Tric: **votes NQT**
NQT: Why though?
Tric: Don't push me?
NQT: Give me a reason
Tric: Don't take that tone with me!!
NQT: ** Votes Tric ** Make a case
Tric: I don't need to give any reasons!!!
NQT: Make a case
Tric: THAT'S IT I'M THUNDERDOMING
Web: Stop being so mean to us

I'm pretty sure Tric's played mafia before and yet here we are!

[TricMagic]

My memory is apparently as spotty as my memery too.. Back to JIM then.

... Fairly sure I still had a reason, even if I will need to reread to find it again. Was it NJW that did the Toaster vote?

[Egan_BW]

anyways Gate of Dreams when?

[NJW2000]

PFP so no deep insight sorry

NJW2000:  At what point did we leave RVS?

I dispute that I had done nothing (though I grant I missed that that was the point you were trying to make.).  Specifically with Egan: I’m trying to lay some groundwork for how people think in a cult game.

See, straight cult games are weird. Normally on D1 there’s good space to look for relational tells; people who are oddly distant or attached to another player, or seem to know something about someone else that no one else does. Here, that falls apart. One can assume that the scum here is two cult leaders who don’t have a current teammate, making looking for relational tells useless. That makes a lot of the standard D1 fare not the play as the relations both come later and more importantly CHANGE. Given all that, I’m attempting to pin down some folk’s opinions and thoughts on the best plays now to see if they change, especially on players I don’t know as well. I just worded it that way because it was still the start of the game and everyone else was doing it so why not?

"RVS" isn't a particularly useful concept here, in my opinion... we're not talking about votes, and useful contributions can be made without a sincere vote. I'm talking about whether or not you're advancing town, and the bar there gets gradually higher the further the game progresses.
 
But hey, I'll humour you, and say it was somewhere between this claim by Web five posts in and this claim by Max a handful of posts before your second one. Or whenever you like. Point is, your second post was basically entirely conversational - the only line with something in it was checking that Egan said the thing they said. Other people, meanwhile, had been claiming/revealing information, speculating about the setup, giving initial gutreads, asking questions, trying to catch people out, etc.

This is just one point against you, but you are spending a lot of energy trying to get it dropped, which isn't in your favour.


I realised making reads for this game is difficult because different players are going to be inclined to different strategies given the existence of an opposing informed minority. Stronger and more aggressive players like Web, Toony and Jim are going to hunt their opponents as hard as town would, just with a slightly stronger emphasis on their own survival, which doesn't tell us much because they're basically never the D1 elim anyway. More passive or less confident scum players like NQT or EJ (I'd be in here too, not trying to put anyone down) would focus on avoiding the elim and recruiting at night. Egan and Tric are wildcards, and the way to read them depends on the particulars... most people were completely taken in by Tric's 3p play in that BYOR, so I think cult leadership would suit them.

Always unsure about posting stuff like this before catching someone out with it, but I think bringing some clarity to scumhunting would be good.

Spoiler: Reads (click to show/hide)

Likely Town
notquitethere: scum!NQT fades into the shadows harder than a chameleon hiding behind a raven in a tunnel on a moonless night. Sure, it's painful that they only realised that the inspection immunity claims could be mind games aimed at cults, but I think this was genuine and town. That said, not sure where this new strategy is going, but I like it better than the graphs.
EganBW: Still quite a new player and often folds a bit as mafia. They've been using their vote, giving the right answers to questions, and seem at home in the game, so I think town.
TricMagic: I've seen Tric hold information before so not a scumtell. They're aggressive, highly focused on particular targets, refusing to explain their reasoning and inexplicably self-voting. I thiiiink this is Town-Tric.
EuchreJack: mild town gut read, other people are better than me at understanding EJ tbh. Although I'd really love to repeatedly ask them why they haven't found scum despite having two of the twelve available votes, that was irritating as hell in FBYOR5 when they did it to me.

Null
Max: hasn't been massively helpful, has been defending people. If anything, I'd say slight town lean, but I can't really read them. Expecting something more useful than just putting a vote on KW today.
Toony: I've never read scum!Toony successfully. I've caught them once, by explicitly interacting with them at night because I couldn't read them, and even then we barely won despite getting incredibly lucky and having Vector. Firm null.

Maybe Cult
Web: He doesn't really want to argue with me this game, which is unusual, or with anyone other than NQT, which is unusualler. Even his standard sounding people out has been mild. Either he's 100% convinced on many people's alignment already, or he's willing to be opportunistic about the elim a la FBYOR5. Went after NQT in that one, funnily enough, I suspect because he was mally and could read him as town. Which means he shouldn't be going after NQT here as either alignment, unless scum!web gave up on a D1 cult elim. Which they'd only do if it was Toony, Jim or Max. Weak read because Web is a strong player.
Jim: It's mostly been fluff and reasonable but quite mild analysis/readslists. I can usually read scum!Jim because his powerwolf play is extremely obvious when you consider the rationale behind powerwolfing and Jim's specific scum philosophy, but the last game means people would actually be on the lookout for this. While town!Jim can be very slow and reasonable, I don't actually see someone really looking hard for the right elimination, he's busier just laughing at weaker players. Subject to change if he actually produces a case or a strong opinion or something. Not a strong read because this looks more like his standard town play than standard scum!Jim, but given the circumstances, not a weak one either. Aaand... yeah, I realise now I argued something similar along those lines when I was scum in the Armed Forces game, and that was just a wack justification to kill him... so now I'm being undermined by my past self.
Toaster: Ok, a bunch of strong players and students of character have told me this is just Toaster's meta, and I see no reason for anyone to mislead me there. On the other hand: his second post was activelurking, he exaggerated a mild case into a "slip", and the most of his other posts are basically chitchat or defending himself. I would be in favour of a Toaster elim, but I don't think I'm going to get it.

Ugh... apart from Toaster, these are weak scumreads, and the toaster one is devalued by the testimony of others. I don't trust myself that well on Jim and Web over Toony and Max, but after the last game maybe I should back myself a bit more.

So: anyone with me on Toaster, Jim Groovester or maaybe Webadict?


EDIT: jesus h. bartholemew christ, looks like it's been happy hour and children's hour in the thread while I was writing this

NQT - it's just tric, we've all been there but try not to get tilted. Also, I think he meant his role when he said he doesn't reveal everything D1, not his vote justification, so some crossed wires here
tric - you can't just make it a "thunderdome" by voting yourself then the other player. It's more when everyone else is forced to choose one of you to elim, like when one person has to be lying
web - I appreciate you're helping here but please don't encourage him

[notquitethere]

Okay I'm not surprised you got people muddled Tric, the game is much harder without vote counts.

Webadict, I can't even tell, is your vote even still on me? If so... why? Your earlier reasons didn't hold up. Give me a case.

[Maximum Spin]

EuchreJack: mild town gut read, other people are better than me at understanding EJ tbh. Although I'd really love to repeatedly ask them why they haven't found scum despite having two of the twelve available votes, that was irritating as hell in FBYOR5 when they did it to me.

Okay, so it's not just NQT, it's the other three-letter agency too.

EuchreJack doesn't have a double-vote. At the moment. (I'm pretty sure.)

Anyway, you left Knightwing off your list. This would be more forgiveable if you hadn't just mentioned him in my line.

[Egan_BW]

I guess we just don't get to verify whether EJ is a double voter when voted because vote counts don't exist. How fun.

[Maximum Spin]

Honestly, I have to assume that anyone giving EuchreJack a double vote is just being relentlessly mean and wants to watch him freak out at the end of d1 again.

[Egan_BW]

Why not? It would be funny.

[NJW2000]

Anyway, you left Knightwing off your list. This would be more forgiveable if you hadn't just mentioned him in my line.

True. Where the hell is Knightwing?

He’s expressed an opinion, which is a town tell for him, but not enough to go on.

[FallacyofUrist]

There's lots of arguing, votes flying all over the place. But nobody's dead yet.

Egan_BW (0):
EuchreJack (0):
Jim Groovester (2): Knightwing64, TricMagic
Knightwing64 (2): Jim Groovester, Maximum Spin
Maximum Spin (1): Egan_BW
notquitethere (2): Toaster, webadict
NJW2000 (0):
Toaster (1): NJW2000
ToonyMan (0):
TricMagic (0):
webadict (1): notquitethere

No Execution (0):

6 votes hammers.

Not Voting (2): EuchreJack, ToonyMan

Currently, nobody will be executed when the Day ends, thanks to the 3-way tie.

[Egan_BW]

Not suuuper wild about ultrakilling any of those three.

[ToonyMan]

I think Toaster's assessment of this setup being two solo Cult Leaders is reasonable.

I'd like to believe that, but I suspect it'll be more horrible than that.

It probably will be.

I think two solo Cult Leaders at a minimum.

Toony

We argued about exactly this issue two years ago in Supernatural 10, where we were both town!

[...]

How's that for consistent meta!

Interesting. I'm glad you bothered to find that.

I was also going to add that in the game me and 4mask were masons I figured a NQT scumtell was when he promised good stuff if he survived to D2 or D3, which is what he did. And was scum. I can even link actual proof when I'm at a computer.

Doesn't he do the same thing as town? I could've sworn that 'I only do my analysis on D2' is pretty standard notquitethere play regardless of alignment.

Fair, it's not really a good reasoning it only worked in our favor there.

Your scenarios aren't accounting for the one where you're a cult leader.

Bad argument, one A_Curious_Cat used against you BYOR 16.

The default position to argue from regardless of alignment is the one that the majority of the players share, which is town in this case, so arguing that somebody isn't considering the options where they are scum is unfair.

Sure. I think it's odd NQT would assume their scumself is a cult member though. Maybe that's a towntell even. I don't really believe there is a cult member helping a leader/recruiter out already on D1, but there's nothing saying there couldn't be.

Sighs. I'm not someone who always reveals everything day 1, and I'd like not to do so this game. Please don't push this?

Who are you and what have you done with Tric?

Ohhh. So Euchrejack AND Webadict AND Max have all claimed to be unconvertible town. Seems unlikely they're all telling the truth.

Maybe cult should try to convert one and find out?

I would be surprised if Fallacy didn't include any unconvertable town.

Web is probably the most suspicious out of these three. Then Max, then Jack.

TricMagic

Do you want a thunderdome NQT? This is how you get a thunderdome. I am not dealing with that sort of tone.

Apparently in your eyes I can't even use my vote without any case or reason stated. Even though I did give one. I find you suspicious, that's enough to get my vote.

NQT is offline now, but my point still stands. In which you don't have to have a reasoned point to use your vote.

Wow so threatening.

post

This is a really good post. I love big analytic posts and they really bias me.

I'm not 100% on everything. I think you're tunneling on Toaster.

I'm not a fan of NQT being shady about info but willing to share when D2 comes around. I think that's scummy, but I don't think he's scum. Maybe me and NJW are totally off base, but I feel like scum!NQT wouldn't be posting the way he has. I think if NQT is town this makes Webadict look worse but isn't as indicative for Toaster.

I was planning on voting Jim or Web today. This hasn't really changed. I think Jim has been really low-key and shady. I know Webadict has said they think Max is town, but how does Web feel about Jim? Webadict, is Jim being scummy? I think you're a better vote than Jim right now.

I'm also tempted to vote Tric for being a dick.

[NJW2000]

I'm very willing to drop the Toaster vote for webadict, especially now that I actually can see where votes are.

Would also be interested in Jim, but Web/Toaster is better.

[webadict]

Okay I'm not surprised you got people muddled Tric, the game is much harder without vote counts.

Webadict, I can't even tell, is your vote even still on me? If so... why? Your earlier reasons didn't hold up. Give me a case.

I'm still voting you.

See, the fun part here is that I technically don't need a case, not just because you didn't really negate my previous case, but also because no one needs anything.  You can vote for anyone for anything, including nothing.  I mean, look in the mirror.

I will probably not unvote you.  I don't really see a better choice at the moment.  I honestly do not think you will pull your weight if you continue playing like this.  I think you are stalling for time.  I think you have no plan for Day 2 or you'd be better at explaining it.  Your votes do not feel genuine, and they do not appear to have gotten information, so I really question why you're sticking your hands in beehives.

I believe that not only are you unnecessary for the Town to win, you are an impediment.

Satisfied?

NJW is scared to be nightkilled.  That's funny.  Does he actually think I can convert people and kill them?  Truly, it seems like he is a coward.  NJW as Town also does this, which is why I am willing to shoot him instead.  It seems fair.  NJW is a lot more convincing than NQT, so I at least understand why he's so poor at finding scum this game.

ToonyMan is either testing this out, or he's pushing a really shitty case.  That's truly bizarre.  I expect better from him.  As for his question about Jim, no, surprisingly, I feel Jim is fine.  I believe that I have a better understanding of Jim after having seen him be scum.  Your reads are bad, Toony.  Fix them.