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[EuchreJack]

The US has bombed 85 targets in Syria and Iraq, targeting the Iranian Revolutionairy guard and groups allied with Iran.
16 people were killed in Iraq, 23 in Syria.

According to US defense minister Lloyd Austin, this is only the beginning of the US reaction. He says that attacks on US troops cannot be tolerated.

The US should really be going after the Drone Factories in Iran. This might be the test run to see if they can get away with it.

[feelotraveller]

September 11th 2001 was quite a day.

And of course it can never be forgotten, the release of Portal Runner for the PS2.

Lest we forget.

That damn Vicky, it was her all along. 

At least now we know who to blame for the ongoing saga of grossly disproportionate responses in the middle east.

(Not to mention the repeated misdirection.  Sucko Iraq you cop it again because Vicky doesn't give a shit for you as a nation or you as people.  And dropping more bombs is going to solve everything, we just didn't drop enough last time.)

[Strongpoint]

The US House will next week vote on a standalone $17.6 billion Israel aid package without any Ukraine aid, Speaker Mike Johnson said Saturday.
________________
*sad Ukrainian facepalm*

I have some doubts that Israel needs that to finish the war in Gaza. I also think it is overkill even in the case of a full Israel-Hezbollah war. And this help is in no way shape or form urgent. Well, it is the difference between being an American ally with a huge lobby coming from a double-citizenship rich people and being a random invaded country fighting for its survival.

____________
Back to the topic. I think this is a clear indication that a full-scale Israeli-Hezbollah war is likely as soon as Israel takes Rafah or even before that.

[EuchreJack]

Considering the prevalence of Iranian drones being used against Ukraine, do not be surprised if some of that funding does not get used for a "lateral attack".

Besides, the Democrats are lying scumbags. They'll probably still hook you up.

[Strongpoint]

Yeah, I firmly believe that Israel receiving stuff for their proxy war with Iran is a net positive for Ukraine (and humanity). But let me have some envy.

[Strongpoint]

HAMAS datacenter is found under UNRWA headquarters

[pr1mezer0]

AI is starting to use human shields.

[Strongpoint]

Israel managed to free the first two hostages since the beginning of the war in a raid. The battle for Rafah is about to begin and it will be bloody but it will be the last major battle in this theater*. Sadly, Hamas won't surrender no matter what.

*It is about time for Hezbollah to stop firing, they won't be the second front soon. They will be the only one.

[da_nang]

It's been four months. Anyone up for some cold calculus?

Spoiler: Cold calculus (click to show/hide)

Assumptions:
    The civilian death rate is proportional to the population in the area of conflict.
    The civilian death rate is inversely proportional to the size of the area of conflict.
    Therefore, the civilian death rate is proportional to the population density of the area of conflict.

Siege of Mariupol:
    Initial population: 425,681
    Area: 244 km²
    Estimated civilian deaths, per defender: 25,000+
    Duration: 86 days
    Behavior of defender:

• Distinguished themselves from civilians.
• Attempted to separate themselves from civilians.
• Tried to protect and evacuate their own civilian population.
• Generally-speaking obeyed the laws of war.

    Civilian death rate: 290+ per day
    Civilian death rate divided by population density: 0.17+ per day

War in Gaza:
    Initial population: 2,375,259
    Area: 365 km²
    Estimated civilian deaths, per defender: 28,473+
    Duration as of February 13th: 130 days
    Behavior of defender:

• Intentionally doesn't try to distinguish themselves from civilians.
• Intentionally doesn't try to separate themselves from civilians.
• Intentionally takes human shields.
• Intentionally commits perfidy.
• Intentionally tries to maximize their own civilian casualties.
• Generally-speaking has complete and utter disregard for the laws of war.

    Civilian death rate as of February 13th: 220+ per day
    Civilian death rate as of February 13th divided by population density: 0.034+ per day

Conclusion: As of February 13th, notwithstanding the behavior of the defenders, the adjusted civilian death rate of the War in Gaza is approximately 20% of the adjusted civilian death rate of the Siege of Mariupol. If Israel was as indiscriminate as Russia was in Mariupol, the nominal civilian death rate would have to be about five times as high, i.e. 1100+ per day.

Assuming that the civilian death rate is proportional to the "recklessness" of the defender, then adjusting for recklessness would make the civilian death rate in Gaza to be even higher than 1100+ per day if Israel was as indiscriminate as Russia in Mariupol. However, recklessness is not something that is easily measured with numbers.

[martinuzz]

Yes, considering the population density, Israel must be putting effort in minimizing civilian casualties, contrary to what the daily world wide Israel hate media makes believe.

[hector13]

Ah, Israel stopping aid from getting in to allow alleviation from things like starvation or thirst or treatable diseases must be a figment or the imagination.

You don’t have to drop bombs on someone to kill them.

[Il Palazzo]

I'm not sure juggling the numbers to end up with 'less horrid than Russia' is how one should clear the morally justifiable bar.

[da_nang]

Adjusted civilian death rates:
    Siege of Leningrad (Germany attacking USSR): 0.56 per day    (most deaths due to starvation)
    Battle of Berlin (USSR attacking Germany): 2.1 per day
    Battle of Manila (Allies/USA attacking Japan): 0.18 per day    (most deaths due to the Manila massacre by Japan)

Given the uncertainty of the data for these, I used the nearest population statistic I could find, and used the smallest area given by Wikipedia. It's also difficult to gauge the proper size of the area of conflict. In Leningrad, for instance, the Germans got no closer than 10 km to the city.

[scriver]

I'm not sure juggling the numbers to end up with 'less horrid than Russia' is how one should clear the morally justifiable bar.

It isn't. It doesn't make Israel's actions any better.

But it's worth considering in relation to narratives in social media and proportionate responses to those.

[Strongpoint]

I'm not sure juggling the numbers to end up with 'less horrid than Russia' is how one should clear the morally justifiable bar.

Feel free to provide any other modern example of a modern army assaulting an urbanized area. The closest I can think about is the second battle of Fellugah ( 25 square km, 300K population, 46 days, 800 civilians killed) but it was defended by a far smaller force, had no tunnel network and majority of civilians had an opportunity to flee before the battle has started