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[RedKing]

Nate Silver on the turnout.

With 85 of 301 precincts reporting, 52,191 voters have cast a ballot in the Republican primary so far. That projects to about 185,000 votes statewide, as compared with about 240,000 votes in the Republican primary in 2008.

The drop-off in turnout looks worse for Republicans since a higher fraction of voters - about half this year, compared to 37 percent in 2008 - are independents. That means that turnout among registered Republicans could alone be off by nearly 40 percent from 2008.

And just above that, Perry still refusing to drop out.

No big surprise there. NH isn't even on Perry's radar (then again, neither is reality...) He'll bow out after South Carolina, or Florida at the latest. If he keeps running after drawing single-digits in both states (which he would) then the man is certifiably insane or just really, really damn stubborn and happy to burn other peoples' money.

Romney's share has gone back up to 37.3%, mostly at the expense of Ron Paul, who's down to 23.5%. I think he can make an argument of meeting expectations successfully.

[Toady One]

(bouchart muted, troll derail removed)

[RedKing]

With 59% reporting, Santorum has pulled ahead of Gingrich by about 150 votes, although both are just under the 10% threshold. If that holds, that's a major blow to Gingrich. Santorum has already shrugged NH off (he spent $0 ad money in the state, sticking to his shaking-hands-and-kissing-babies strategy from Iowa) and headed for SC. Gingrich, on the other hand, dropped some coin in the state. If he's still in the back of the pack after all that...but at the same time I think he's too stubborn and spiteful to drop out. He'll stay until at least Florida (unless he gets absolutely waxed in South Carolina).

[Zrk2]

So Ron Paul one the first time atheist voters. Surprise! Also, Aqizzar, I like that you made the distinction between amoral and immoral, it's small but important and often overlooked.

[Nadaka]

So Ron Paul one the first time atheist voters. Surprise! Also, Aqizzar, I like that you made the distinction between amoral and immoral, it's small but important and often overlooked.

Well. I am not surprised. Ron Paul doesn't really get the chance to advertise is theocratic tenancies in debates.  Plus he has had the 4chan trolls advertising him so reliably for the past few years.

[Sensei]

Wooo! Just got me a voter's card! Time to join the clusterfuck!

[RedKing]

Romney up over the 38% mark now. I think it's a pretty solid win for him. Gingrich and Santorum are in a statistical dead heat and both look to finish below 10%. Decent but not stellar night for all involved other than Gingrich and Perry.

[KaelGotDwarves]

Ron Paul has had a strange sort of following. Some of his ideas are so radical and he gathers to him anarcho-federal-government libertarians, conspiracy theorists, Constitutionalists, and those just sick of the wars. He commands a good portion of the very old and very young, disenfranchised-feeling voters that zealously spam his presidential ability all over the internet that the bolded RON PAUL is now a meme.

Honestly, it's depressing that a moderate like Huntsman doesn't stand a chance, and mildly funny that a Mormon who looked over the precursor to "Obamacare", and allowed gay marriage most of his life is the Republican frontrunner.

[ECrownofFire]

http://bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2012/01/10/text-mitt-romney-new-hampshire-primary-victory-speech/F370b8iPihWLJB1uf7pagL/story.html

"I will insist on a military so powerful no one would think of challenging it."

Romney... No. Just no. Stop that right now, dammit.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

If I were a Ron Paul supporter, which I am not, but if I was, I would do so under the logic that he'd be unable to push through his more insane ideas, and that his better ones would be more plausible goals for him to pursue. Of course, that's a gamble.

[ECrownofFire]

If I were a Ron Paul supporter, which I am not, but if I was, I would do so under the logic that he'd be unable to push through his more insane ideas, and that his better ones would be more plausible goals for him to pursue. Of course, that's a gamble.

That's pretty much why I support him

He's by far not the best, but he's better than all the other jokers (at least the ones that have a chance).

[Aqizzar]

Honestly, it's depressing that a moderate like Huntsman doesn't stand a chance, and mildly funny that a Mormon who looked over the precursor to "Obamacare", and allowed gay marriage most of his life is the Republican frontrunner.

I'm not sure it's depressing so much as confusing.  If the "Republican base" is so disgusted with Romney, why is he suddenly running away in the actual votes?  Are they voting for him because of his history (as a wind-shifting moderate) or his promises (a religious-devotion to conservative principle)?

At any rate, I knew the sudden, mindblowing spectacle of people like Perry and Gingrich beating up on Romney as a callous business mogul or something wouldn't last long without a response.  South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint is not endorsing Romney really he's not but is predicting him to win in his home state, and had some unkind things to say about the criticisms of his business background.  Not nearly as much though as the caustic explosion due to be lobbed at Newt Gingrich from Republicans not so much interested in any particular principle or even political office so much as securing Republican influence for its own sake.  Namely, the Media branch of the Republican party, like Sean Hannity, Michelle Malkin, and Ann Coulter, who according to the New York Times are preparing to sacrifice Gingrich on the altar of Ayn Rand.

http://bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2012/01/10/text-mitt-romney-new-hampshire-primary-victory-speech/F370b8iPihWLJB1uf7pagL/story.html

"I will insist on a military so powerful no one would think of challenging it."

Romney... No. Just no. Stop that right now, dammit.

Wait, is he running to be President, or Caesar Augustus?  I must have missed that part of the speech.

[ECrownofFire]

http://bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2012/01/10/text-mitt-romney-new-hampshire-primary-victory-speech/F370b8iPihWLJB1uf7pagL/story.html

"I will insist on a military so powerful no one would think of challenging it."

Romney... No. Just no. Stop that right now, dammit.

Wait, is he running to be President, or Caesar Augustus?  I must have missed that part of the speech.

He's running to be Emperor Palpatine.

"Fear will keep the local systems in line. Fear of this battle station." - Mitt Romney

[Urist Imiknorris]

"Fear will keep the local systems in line. Fear of this battle station." - Mitt Romney

Sigged with extreme prejudice.

[KaelGotDwarves]

Honestly, it's depressing that a moderate like Huntsman doesn't stand a chance, and mildly funny that a Mormon who looked over the precursor to "Obamacare", and allowed gay marriage most of his life is the Republican frontrunner.

I'm not sure it's depressing so much as confusing.  If the "Republican base" is so disgusted with Romney, why is he suddenly running away in the actual votes?  Are they voting for him because of his history (as a wind-shifting moderate) or his promises (a religious-devotion to conservative principle)?

Exit polling from Iowa, and I imagine NH, points at the fact that more Republicans think Romney has the best chance at beat Obama. Which is fairly interesting given the "purge the unclean" rhetoric and typical radical notions of party primaries. What's the big deal hardly anyone's talking about? The Tea Party really lost here. Their favourite bowed out after one state. Despite all the the money and effort sank into the fringe Tea Party, the voters have anchored themselves into the old battle between the "safe choice moderate party establishment" and "old school social conservatives". With Romney in the lead, most voters are throwing a vote behind Romney because they think others will find him a palpable choice next to Obama, regardless of what they think.

So Republicans are slashing and burning everything, including each other, for the win. The question is can they reunite themselves to overcome a dispirited Democratic base, which still grinds under the most finely-tuned political organisation we have ever seen? Seems like a bit like "Anyone but Bush" to me while subbing Romney in for Kerry.