So here's the question: what now?
Well, in the short term, we have the fiscal cliff to deal with. Here's the problem with it: it is no coincidence that it is as far from an election as possible. Voters will remember the consequences of whatever deal is brokered or not when they go to the polls in 2014, but they likely won't remember who made the final stretch across the aisle to make that deal. That may be bad news for the Democrats, because they might make some concessions that they would rather not make, get a deal passed at the bottom of the ninth, and then lose to Republicans in the midterm because voters thought that a compromise in the House was the result of the Republicans running it. But that's a hell of a lot better than not making a decision; going over the edge of the cliff I don't even want to think about.
But more importantly, we may actually see the Republicans compromise a little bit; they've won the battle in the House but lost the war. Recall that the past four years' obstructionism has been, in large part, a function of the McConnell plan: on the (quite reasonable; Romney did more for the Obama campaign through his ineptitude than any staffer ever did) assumption that a do-nothing black president in a bad economy couldn't get elected, we're going to do everything it takes to make Barack Obama a one-term president, and we're going to do that by not letting him get anything done. Now that's gone down the tubes: Obama has won, the Democrats have kept their control of the Senate (though not enough to prevent filibusters), and suddenly the raison d'être of the Republicans for the past two years is gone. Further attempts to be obstructionist and not get anything done will have no higher purpose than being obstructionist and not getting anything done, and in the face of a crisis an inability to compromise can only hurt. (Not that the Democrats aren't being bullheaded and immature, because they are. But not to the extent their colleagues have been.)
Indeed, I have some hope that we might get something done this term. Recall that John Boehner had a budget deal with Obama all packed up and ready to go before Eric Cantor took him aside and told him no, this is not acceptable. With Obama not facing reelection, that could change. Boehner, we forget, is still an old-school Republican; unlike certain of his colleagues, he does understand that when you gotta cut a deal, you cut a deal. And I'd gain a lot of respect for the man if, when it comes time to get something done, he basically stands up and said "I am the head of this Congress and this party, and we are putting aside the bickering for a few minutes to get this passed for the sake of the country."
What about 2016? Well, on the Republican side, forget the current batch. Mittens will probably go back to a fulfilling life as a member of the idle rich. Newt Gingrich will be too old to run and be taken even less seriously than he was this go-round. Rick Santorum will be perceived as even more laughably bigoted in four years' time, as more states legalize gay marriage and public opposition to it weakens even more. He could make an appearance, of course- lord knows everyone thought he was done for four or five years ago- and it's not inconceivable that he might win the primary, as he almost did this year (and what fun that would have been, though less thrilling), but his opponent would win by a landslide in the general. Paul the elder may have passed on to the great gold mine in the sky.
So who does that leave? From this season: Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Jon Huntsman, and Tim Pawlenty. Perry will have to look extra-competent as governor, and in the general he would likely suffer from the same problems as Santorum. Herman Cain would be hilarious but, alas, unlikely. As for Huntsman- I like Huntsman a lot and may well be inclined to vote for him if he won the primary, but I don't think he would win it. Which is sad, because he's exactly the sort of guy the Republicans need to stave off their demographic decline. Pawlenty could be resurrected, but it seems very unlikely. Oh, and there's also Paul Ryan. Disturbingly, I think he might win the primary if he ran; fortunately, however, he'd never win in the general.
But don't count on all these showing. Paul probably will and Perry is plausible. Luckily for the Republicans, not being in power gives you a lot of time to develop fresh faces.
However, in the end I think they'd probably lose if they put in someone conventional. They are losing their base, they can't get Hispanics (Rubio would be a very, very canny choice; but he will only be a temporary fix unless the Republicans start changing their stances on immigration and social services), and there's something else that will happen between now and 2016, too: Obamacare will go into effect with full force in 2014, and people will see that it is not, in fact, the end times.
The Republicans are going to come away from this and tell their constituents that they weren't conservative enough- because being insane has let them keep the House. But they're fools if they think it'll win them the Presidency from here on out. And here is the sad truth: they are fools. Romney might have moved more to the center, picked Christie or Rubio or someone else for veep pick, and be celebrating victory right now. But instead, he caved to the party groupthink and lost for it. And, unfortunately for his successors, his partymates are taking away exactly the wrong conclusion from it.
What about the Democrats? Biden is a possibility, of course, and if Obama comes out the other end as a popular, likable president who got some shit done he might be able to ride that wave to the Presidency, especially if the Republicans can't get their act together and make a bad nomination choice. Hillary might well make an appearance; but by that time she may be perceived as too old, at least for a woman. (Another presidential sex scandal with Bill would be hilarious). About the only people I can think of at the moment are Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, both of Virginia. Kaine would actually be a great choice, I think; like Biden, he's a Catholic Democrat (used to be a missionary, actually) who would make inroads in the religious vote, but like Biden is pro-choice in the public view. And there might be other people, you never know.
It'll be interesting!
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Topic: American Election Megathread - It's Over (Read 721275 times)