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[Helgoland]

I guess to compare two countries' post-crisis performance you have to look at their pre-crisis performance, and - relatively speaking - Estonia and the US seem to be comparable in that regard (98% vs. 91%, was it?).

HOWEVER: Estonia and the US aren't comparable in most regards - recent history, size, location, EU membership etc. So this whole discussion is kinda pointless, really

And there's no way in hell that Greek GDP per capita was at some point higher than US GDP per capita. Might be an effect of how GDP is measured, though.
Now, with regards to the US and the European countries: What do you think can be done to get the economy back up and the governments free to act right now and drive down debt in the long run?

[Leafsnail]

I just don't think that the two are all that comparable.

Yeah you could probably say this to all his comparisons really.  They have to compare 100+ years ago to today, or a minor recession caused by the end of a war to a major collapse in the entire economic system, or the largest economy in the world to a tiny former-Soviet country.

And there's no way in hell that Greek GDP per capita was at some point higher than US GDP per capita. Might be an effect of how GDP is measured, though.

It has no units at all actually so it's kindof hard to tell

[Reelya]

And GreatJustice brings actual deceptive statistics.

Wow, economies that are way backwards and recovering from the post soviet era grew faster before the crisis?  No way!

And after.

Another one, if you prefer:


It recovered about four times as fast as the US and is presently still growing, while simultaneously running a budget surplus.

How is that a "win" for Estonia, since the GDP per capita fell faster than America and has NOT recovered as much? The blue line is Estonia.

also, if you look up unemployment figures for Estonia, they were 3.9% before the crisis, and have "settled" at a steady 10% now, with that magical fixing you're promoting.

[GreatJustice]

And GreatJustice brings actual deceptive statistics.

Wow, economies that are way backwards and recovering from the post soviet era grew faster before the crisis?  No way!

And after.

Another one, if you prefer:


It recovered about four times as fast as the US and is presently still growing, while simultaneously running a budget surplus.

How is that a "win" for Estonia, since the GDP per capita fell faster than America and has NOT recovered as much?

It recovered far quicker and by larger margins than that of America, it just had a far larger initial fall (for a variety of reasons mostly relating to Estonian monetary policy).

[Reelya]

Now you're mincing words, because it's still worse off than America, relative to how it was before the crisis., plus 2.5 times the unemployment they used to have, with no drop in sight.

[Leafsnail]

It recovered far quicker and by larger margins than that of America, it just had a far larger initial fall (for a variety of reasons mostly relating to Estonian monetary policy).

So Estonia is comparable to the US in some regards (the ones that support your point) but not comparable in other regards (the ones that destroy your point).  Thanks for the clarification.

[Flare]

Would a far larger fall mean that's easier to make up lost ground, and where the closer you are to reclaiming all of the GDP the efforts required to do so also increase? Kinda like how if a sudden shock obliterated three quarters of the GDP in an industrialized country, but leaves all the man-power, industrial capacity, and expertise intact. I would imagine getting that 50% of your GDP would be quite easy to do, while that last 10 or 20% becomes a steep climb because the economy was operating at its optimal most well-oiled peak before the crash.

[Reelya]

That's right, if you look at Venezuela for example, they had the coup and oil strike of 2002-2003 which crippled the economy.

http://www.indexmundi.com/venezuela/gdp_real_growth_rate.html

Then the next couple of years, massive growth. 18% growth in 2004, 10% growth in 2005, 9% growth in 2006, 8% growth in 2007. Only the credit crisis put and end to their economic expansion, not any domestic policy.

I guess that several years of record growth in a row was due to Hugo Chavez's policies, right GreatJustice?

[Darvi]

I dunno, but since '07, which seems to be the measure we're going by, Estonia has been consistently lower than the US. And as you said, they had a worse situation to begin with, so the recovery might seem better than the US' but it doesn't change that they're still worse off overall.

E: Bah, ninjas and homework. I hate you both.

[GreatJustice]

Now you're mincing words, because it's still worse off than America, relative to how it was before the crisis., plus 2.5 times the unemployment they used to have, with no drop in sight.

Last I checked, 20% to 10% is a drop that can be seen pretty easily. But hey, if you want to argue that Estonia's recovery with 7.8% growth immediately following the recession coupled with a surplus is inferior to America's recovery with ~2% growth immediately following the recession coupled with a huge deficit, be my guest.

That's right, if you look at Venezuela for example, they had the coup and oil strike of 2002-2003 which crippled the economy.

http://www.indexmundi.com/venezuela/gdp_real_growth_rate.html

Then the next couple of years, massive growth. 18% growth in 2004, 10% growth in 2005, 9% growth in 2006, 8% growth in 2007. Only the credit crisis put and end to their economic expansion, not any domestic policy.

I guess that 4 years of record growth in a row was due to Hugo Chavez's policies, right GreatJustice?

Gigantic oil reserves are certainly helpful. It's also worth noting that I didn't mention Estonia's pre-recession growth, largely because such growth was artificial and the result of inflationary policy (hence why the collapse was so large).

[Reelya]

If it's purely "gigantic oil reserves", why did no other government for 20 full years before Chavez have a sustained growth rate like that over multiple years?

[misko27]

If it's purely "gigantic oil reserves", why did no other government for 20 full years before Chavez have a sustained growth rate like that over multiple years?

Ther are places with some BIG oil reserves. As does my favorite example, Canada. And texas.

[mainiac]

Gigantic oil reserves are certainly helpful. It's also worth noting that I didn't mention Estonia's pre-recession growth, largely because such growth was artificial and the result of inflationary policy (hence why the collapse was so large).

So you are saying that you posted a graph where more then half the space is wasted on years that are unimportant and deceptive?

But hey, if you want to argue that Estonia's recovery with 7.8% growth immediately following the recession coupled with a surplus is inferior to America's recovery with ~2% growth immediately following the recession coupled with a huge deficit, be my guest.

Maybe you should shoot yourself in the foot?  Your health will show a marked improvement in the weeks right after you shoot yourself.  Should make you healthier afterwards, right?  I mean your health is improving so much.

[Reelya]

It's kinda ridiculous to compare some of the smallest economies in the world to the largest. There are 1.3 million people in Estonia, it's a very poor, and still developing economy. Those places ALWAYS have fast growth. Most of their export economy is a service economy taking advantage of the fact they border much larger countries of Russia, Germany, and in Scandinavia.

Just not a comparable situation AT ALL to America, or to large European countries. Plus, u know they have one of the lowest incomes of the entire eurozone, and very high unemployment. They're starting from very low income per GDP. GDP would have to grow faster than America for MANY years to be comparable.

The same things goes for trading-based city-states like Signapore or Hong Kong, they solely exist to service the larger economies around them. That's just not something that can be "emulated" by full-sized countries.

[mainiac]

Wait before we write Estonia off I want to ask Great Justice a question.

Suppose by 2015, 8 years after the crisis, Estonia has restored it's GDP to the pre-crash levels.  Does that make Estonia's recovery a success?