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Author Topic: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Game Over!  (Read 161529 times)

Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #675 on: November 21, 2013, 04:21:14 pm »

I think you're votejumping and throwing around to see where it will stick.  Trying to see who you can drive a mislynch on, NQT?
Nope. I'm willing to change my mind and not give a damn how that makes me look. Changing your mind is not a scumtell. You really think my interactions with Max and Caz are indicative of scumbuddies? Toony and Jim certainly didn't think so.

Imp really thinks NQT's interactions with especially Max (and minorly Caz) is indicative of Scumbuddies.   That's the last point of my original case against you, and the bottom almost half of the 'supporting evidence' that forms the rest of that post details example after example of your weird interaction with Max, and how you respond to him differently from everyone else, especially everyone else who challenges you about something, prior to that point.  I'll note that now you're behaving to us all much like you behaved only towards Max then - but you were told it was an issue, which could explain the change.  It's the before that point - before you were told about your Scumminess showing - that's what matters because that's when it was innocent or not - now that you know it becomes 'did you change it or not.

Happily, you were told about it with reply #510 - there's two whole D of play (and part of a third D) and scores of interactions to see.

Here's a spoiler of my original case on NQT, with everything except the charge that he's acting weird with Max (and slightly weird with Caz) and the -supporting evidence- of that weirdness removed.

Toaster, Tiruin, Persus13:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
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notquitethere

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #676 on: November 21, 2013, 07:13:10 pm »

HOW TOWN IS GOING TO WIN

You know what, I just figured things out. I don't have to survive today and I don't have to figure out which one of Tiruin or Imp is scum. Imp's night plan looks workable too but involves two possible nightkills: if scum have a hidden role then there might be terrible consequences.

Spoiler: Cathartic Rant (click to show/hide)

So, here's how :

Toaster
I know you said you wouldn't but don't night kill. This is very important.

Tiruin
If you're town, then redirect Imp to Persus. Her night kill will bounce off harmlessly. This is very very important and will win us the game if you're town so please promise me you'll do this.

Imp
If you're town, investigate Tiruin. Don't be smart and investigate Webadict.

Persus
Scum are probably going to kill Toaster in the night. It'll be you, Imp and Tiruin at LYLO. Now read this carefully because this is going to win us the game if you all play your roles right:

If Toaster is nightkilled then Tiruin is scum. As the illusionist she should have been able to redirect scum at you.

If Tiruin is nightkilled, then obviously just lynch Imp.

If Imp is nightkilled and Toaster promises he didn't do it, then lynch Tiruin.

If there is no nightkill (whether or not you received an attack in the night) then hear what Imp has claimed and lynch Tiruin. If Tiruin wasn't scum, then let Toaster nightkill Imp. It's important that you do it this way, as a scum-Tiruin could redirect Toaster.

Scum, I've got to hand it to you, you had a good game. Max and Caz were pretty dire but you blended in well, so pat yourself on the back. I'm not even sore about it anymore. Sure, I was incensed at first, I hate to be thought of as guilty when I'm not, doesn't everyone? But now I'm confident that if town follow my plan then they'll hang you and I'll get the last laugh.

I'm going to put my faith in my analytics as it has yet to fail me, despite me repeatedly failing it, and put my vote back on Tiruin. I don't expect any of you to follow me in this vote, I just want it known on record that I didn't turn my back on my own reasoning for a third time in a row.
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Tiruin

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #677 on: November 21, 2013, 08:40:21 pm »

...So I get voted with lacking ideas behind it.

PFP

Imp, I'm in full accordance with that plan! Let's win this game!

...Also no, NQT. I'm redirecting Toaster--if in case he's scum, then no Hunter kill. I
..
Wait I've to check the lines here.
1:4

> Mislynch.
1:3
Toaster targets me (he should do that because if I'm scum, then the game is up if he targets anyone else as scum-me would then target Toaster).

So it's up to whom I target. If I target anyone else, I die. 1:2
> If Toaster, its an either/or scenario (given that the special role didn't claim and most probably fabricated their role). I'm not the Hunter however, and he seems 90% proof.

Unless Imp is darn good with bus'in, then it follows with a Persus, Toasty, Imp scenario--however question goes to how or why Imp would bus Max given that there's a darn hunter around.

> If Imp..hm. Challenging prospect NQT. If I redirect Imp to Persus, then Toaster kills me and it'll still fall on a 1:2 (but if I'm scum then I die with Toaster leaving a 0:2)

..Huh. Imp: Scry Toaster or Me, depending on what you believe. I predict that whether its me or NQT--scum have fabricated their role.

Toaster
I know you said you wouldn't but don't night kill. This is very important.
[...]

If Toaster is nightkilled then Tiruin is scum. As the illusionist she should have been able to redirect scum at you.
...You do know that scum could also not kill, and then things will get tangled if that happens, right.
Toaster: Target. Me.

Spoiler: Cathartic Rant (click to show/hide)
@Rant: Dude! D:
I'd argue that answering the questions equal, if you're town which I doubt, experience against cases presented against you whether fake or true and how to diplomatically defuse a sticky situation.

Everyone: Let's shorten this out? The plan looks infallible to me.


I'm going to put my faith in my analytics as it has yet to fail me, despite me repeatedly failing it, and put my vote back on Tiruin. I don't expect any of you to follow me in this vote, I just want it known on record that I didn't turn my back on my own reasoning for a third time in a row.
While I agree with your analytics, I will denounce how you interpreted them and marked me out (as compared to prior when in all other analytics I am absent). Compare 4 to 3.
Then compare that you didn't check the details within my posts.
Then..then. Bleh. I feel hurt by this. I do agree with the analytical method you propose.
I dislike, however, how the follow through proceeds.
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #678 on: November 21, 2013, 08:50:18 pm »

I'm fine with either plan.

I'm surprised that I'm the one guy who everyone thinks is town. I thought my play has been fairly bad this game compared to my last one.

Tiruin: Your role hasn't really affected the game, and so I can't tell if you're fake-claiming except by your town appearance. Imp's claim yesterday affected the game, and Toaster's clearly affected the game, so I have evidence to cause me to believe their claims. Toaster more than Imp.

There's been like 5000 WOTs since last night, so if anyone had other questions for me could you repost them?

I wouldn't mind a shorten, unless someone's going to change their vote.
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Mephansteras

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #679 on: November 21, 2013, 09:15:42 pm »

The Scribe's Tally Sheet
notquitethere: Imp, Toaster, Persus13
Tiruin: notquitethere



Day ends ~5pm Pacific Friday. There is one vote to Shorten the day. 3 Votes total needed to Shorten.
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Tiruin

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #680 on: November 21, 2013, 09:31:14 pm »

NQT

This should have been in the post before this.

Tiruin: Your role hasn't really affected the game, and so I can't tell if you're fake-claiming except by your town appearance. Imp's claim yesterday affected the game, and Toaster's clearly affected the game, so I have evidence to cause me to believe their claims. Toaster more than Imp.

There's been like 5000 WOTs since last night, so if anyone had other questions for me could you repost them?

I wouldn't mind a shorten, unless someone's going to change their vote.
You can tell if I'm fake claiming by every method possible except staring at my claim and agreeing with it. Check back.

...

Persus: Here
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Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #681 on: November 21, 2013, 09:53:51 pm »

I'm antsy.  There's a few things I want to really dig in and think over, and work became busy work, I hardly can focus that deep.

But those things have to do with 'what if we have 2 baddies alive'.

That is unlikely, and if we do Town's probably already lost and just hasn't stopped twitching yet.

If we have -one- baddie left, it deeply matters if they are Scum or not.  The only non-Scum baddie I can still think of after wondering and reading is a killer type.  Persus cannot be a killer type, Toaster says he is - if Tiruin isn't an Illusionist hopefully Toaster agrees to target her tonight (by targeting Tiruin, the only one who will die if Tiruin lied is Tiruin, AND Tiruin becomes proven role wise (if not alignment or faction wise).


So read the end of D post from Meph super close - if there is to be a N4.  If his words suggest that the Cult/Scum are gone but other threat(s) remain - is there anyone but Toaster that threat could be?

If the answer is yes, I have no idea -who- it possibly could be or -how- they are a threat to Town.  That points towards Toaster and no where else if there is a D5 but what Meph says suggests that the Cult/Scum are all gone and it's 'just' other threat that we face.

If there's still Scum around, if there is a 4th Scum team member... I have -no- idea who you are.

Especially if it's Tiruin and she honestly claimed Illusionist - it is testable and if she lied she dies - but I don't read Tiruin as Scummy.  And she -worked- for Caz's lynch.  Not a big and blustery bus, but serious and focused work that never faltered (unlike Max's 'possible bus' of NQT, which -did- falter, possibly with fully planned intention of NQT using it to draw in a Townie known to defend others and to have fairly poor defense himself - namely Nerjin).  I strongly suspect Tiruin is Town.

I also don't see Max as having been trying to bus Persus with that risk - I believe Scum honestly wanted Persus dead.  Persus is my Top Town pick.

Toaster 'lead the lynch' D2 on Caz.  He chose to say 'I'm the killer' when he could have dodged it and if he was Scum - that's a great thing to do because -I- at least would have turned -every- stone and beaten every bush desperately looking for the hiding Killer.  As a killer, if we kill a Third Scum and the game isn't over - I'm not -certain- that means The Killer has to die for a Town win - but who else....  So Toaster admitting he is Killer, + that every one of Toasters verified night actions seems perfectly reasonable choices for a Town Monster Hunter to make - I strongly suspect Toaster is Town or SK - but I do NOT think he is Scum.

As for me, I can't evaluate myself from the outside as well as you not-me people can.  I can create (and have imagined) a challenge to my claim better than anything NQT has put together.  I can't see a way to 'prove' me Scum - but I can see an interpretive route for my investigative claims that explains why nothing I've said couldn't or wouldn't have been said by Scum - except motive.

If I am Scum, then I wanted to be last Scum standing.  I wanted my team gone, I wanted that way earlier than 'needed', -and- my team 'let it happen', if not outright worked with me to ensure it did.  And while I did this I also set up NQT to be my next to final target, and clearly (since this is a complex and masterful plan so far) have envisioned a -great- way to ensure a Scum win because if NQT is a mislynch - there's no possible way the Scum win right now, is there?  So my plan would have to include a way to win past today, one so great and certain that I -and my team- decided it was best for them to die on D2 and D3 so Scum could win D4+.

I don't believe there's any interpretation which shows the Scum team as being in such dire straights as to agree to that.

But before we Shorten - I want to know what Toaster has to say about 'The Plan'.  And if Toaster would like to suggest any changes, or just wants to tell us about any changes - after all, his is the most 'active' of all roles in the N4 plan.
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Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #682 on: November 21, 2013, 10:13:33 pm »

Persus
Scum are probably going to kill Toaster in the night. It'll be you, Imp and Tiruin at LYLO. Now read this carefully because this is going to win us the game if you all play your roles right:

If Toaster is nightkilled then Tiruin is scum. As the illusionist she should have been able to redirect scum at you.

If Tiruin is nightkilled, then obviously just lynch Imp.

If Imp is nightkilled and Toaster promises he didn't do it, then lynch Tiruin.

If there is no nightkill (whether or not you received an attack in the night) then hear what Imp has claimed and lynch Tiruin. If Tiruin wasn't scum, then let Toaster nightkill Imp. It's important that you do it this way, as a scum-Tiruin could redirect Toaster. 

I see a bunch of serious problems (and possible clues) in this list of suggestions from NQT's plan.

If Tiruin is nightkilled, then obviously just lynch Imp. ----  Problem, Tiruin was supposed to redirect Imp to Persus.  if Tiruin dies in the night, the -only- player incapable of doing this kill was Imp - if Tiruin actually is an Illusionist and actually DID redirect Imp to Persus.

If there is no nightkill (whether or not you received an attack in the night) then hear what Imp has claimed and lynch Tiruin. If Tiruin wasn't scum, then let Toaster nightkill Imp. It's important that you do it this way, as a scum-Tiruin could redirect Toaster.

if there's no nightkill - the 'real threat' could be anyone.  Who knows if the Threat is Scum/SK/other/a mix..... but I see no reason to 'listen to Imp' and then automatically lynch Tiruin.  Why even listen to Imp?  Just jump right to the lynch - except.... why Tiruin, then Imp being so clearly more likely to be Scum than Toaster?

If Imp is nightkilled and Toaster promises he didn't do it, then lynch Tiruin.    Huh?  Alright... So NQT think that Toaster wouldn't lie.

And -then- NQT votes for Tiruin - after wanting me redirected by Tiruin.  Talk about 'feeling sure that Imp has the Scum night kill'.  I suppose one cannot expect the Scum to redirect themselves though - but again, one almost has to wonder why NQT would want Tiruin put in a situation where she is not forced to use her redirection or die (making her unable to use the faction kill if she is Scum), and where Toaster is left free to do as he chooses, given that he's our claimed killer - but not proven to be Town yet.

For now I'm just going to call what NQT posted as his plan as 'weird'.  I'll sort it out if more information trickles in that seems to pertain.


So, look like NQT is trying to improve Toaster's odds of survival - or not because it's obvious that he's trying to do so.  Either way, I'm going to base my decision (if I'm around to make one come D5.... if we even -need- to make one, because maybe there won't -be- a D5....  My decision will be based on what Meph says, and on what people I believe are not Scum say.  That -could- include NQT - but I don't think so.  If you flip Town, NQT, I'm going to give your weird list of 'that doesn't make sense' instructions a twice over - but if you've been Town this whole game with the stuff you've said - Wow guy.  We'll talk about that after the game's over, if that's the case.
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Persus13

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #683 on: November 21, 2013, 10:41:47 pm »

Tiruin: My single choice for scum wasn't due to roles. It was due to NQT's behavior yesterday. I also looked at how people voted and how they've seemed to me overall.

At this point someone is scum, and lying about their role is an easy way to be under the radar. One scum has to kill people and not spend their actions. You claimed illusionist and and claimed to redirect a dead person and someone who according to pretty much everyone now, is a townie with no actions, doing nothing except reinforcing your belief that I'm town. I think its a long shot, but it could be that you know I'm town because you're cult and you were knocking out and sacrificing people. Imp could also have lied about her role, but the way and use of her roleclaim makes me think she's town. NQT I'm not sure if he's the priest as he claimed, and I don't think that makes a difference on my opinion of whether or not he's scum.
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Toaster

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #684 on: November 21, 2013, 10:55:25 pm »

Tiruin:
Quote
Yes- a planned bus for either Imp or Persus with Max is within the realm of possibility.  I doubt it, though.

Why Persus more than Imp?
...Because I targeted Persus on N2? That, and evidence prior to today really orients my sight on Persus==Town. Sure, Max could've done the kill (given him being Knight), but comparing the facts..well. Try to reason why the scumteam has TWO Knights (technical aspect) AND the Hunter-Sword thing back then (proof of knight) + Persus' words and posts (including him believing that Imp is a saving grace vs Max' ability due to Seer having... quite an attractable reputation, as my guess on why he rationalized that)

Okay, that makes sense.


Plan Imp:  Seems reasonably solid.  If Tiruin is lying, she dies.  It retests Persus as well, in case he's some oddball scum role that is one-shot bulletproof.  If I'm lying, Persus isn't attacked.  If I am redirected to Persus, he lives, and someone else dies, it's Imp.  Yeah, seems reasonable.

Plan NQT:  Assuming we hang you and the game doesn't end when we go to night, we have two cases.

NQT flips Town:  There's one scum left.  I stay home.  Tiruin sends Imp to Persus.  Imp checks Tiruin's role class.  Persus does nothing.  If I am scum, my kill flavor would be obvious when it shows.  If Tiruin is scum, she can't actually redirect Imp and she lands on Tiruin.  If Imp is scum, Persus gets attacked OR she just stays home.  If Persus is scum, he kills someone- probably Imp.

Uh... okay.  If scum doesn't kill, we learn nothing.  Not a fan.


Persus:  You got lucky with circumstance.  Remember I tried to off you N1.  But hey, you play and learn.
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Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #685 on: November 21, 2013, 11:41:55 pm »

Toaster - I want to hear your intended night action, please (it's for the jury, just in case this game isn't over with D4 lynch).

Do you intend to target Tiruin, someone else, or not use your power?  I see you say my plan seems reasonable.  What I do not see is you saying if you intend to follow it, to do something else, or do what you already said you'd probably do, 'no action'.

If you need to hear me explain why I feel I need your stated intention, I will explain further.
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Toaster

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #686 on: November 22, 2013, 12:53:27 am »

Oh, right.  Kill Tiruin is my action.
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Tiruin

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #687 on: November 22, 2013, 01:02:04 am »

PFP - busied by schoolwork.
Tiruin: My single choice for scum wasn't due to roles. It was due to NQT's behavior yesterday. I also looked at how people voted and how they've seemed to me overall.

At this point someone is scum, and lying about their role is an easy way to be under the radar. One scum has to kill people and not spend their actions. You claimed illusionist and and claimed to redirect a dead person and someone who according to pretty much everyone now, is a townie with no actions, doing nothing except reinforcing your belief that I'm town. I think its a long shot, but it could be that you know I'm town because you're cult and you were knocking out and sacrificing people. Imp could also have lied about her role, but the way and use of her roleclaim makes me think she's town. NQT I'm not sure if he's the priest as he claimed, and I don't think that makes a difference on my opinion of whether or not he's scum.
...Dude, I just redirected you to Toony. The fact that he didn't get snuffed D3 means that I did something really important. Do you detect me flaking any suspicion (in malice) towards you back then?

Because I restate what I say once more. Vote patterns, or vote records, are a bad thing to use alone as a standing case--they are best used as a guide and bad for tracking a conversation.

Everyone: Thoughts today? What is your output on a No Lynch? I'm ambivalent (leaning on lynching) however I'd like to see what everyone else thinks on it. Given that Toaster plays a wild card (SK or whatever), scum have the incentive to target him. Though, given or given not that I am a suspect, then I still go with the plan of
Oh, right.  Kill Tiruin is my action.
However, I redirect NQT to Persus.
Unless Occam's Razor intervenes.
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Imp

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #688 on: November 22, 2013, 01:36:07 am »

I'm ready to shorten.

Here's how I see this playing out.

I'm going to use the term SK - but when I do it could be SK or any other malicious 3rd party.... SK is all I can think of.

When I use the term Town, I mean Town or benign 3rd party - functionally identical for my purposes here.

We lynch NQT.  Pray the gods he is Scum.  Whether he's Scum or not - if the game goes on - we have either:

1 Scum 3 Town.
2 Scum 2 Town(game over for Town, I won't waste time with that one)
1 SK 3 Town.
1 SK 1 Scum 2 Town.
1 SK 2 Scum 1 Town. (game over for Town, I won't discuss that one)

So if we go to N4, there's 3 possibilities worth talking about:

1 Scum 3 Town:  Everyone does what I suggested, and what they have said they would do.  No one dies - Persus reports another sword attack - we still have to figure out who is the Scum.  We talk a LOT.

1 Scum 3 Town - Tiruin's Scum and sneaky version - Tiruin Redirects Toaster to Toaster (can she?  Dunno.... but it's worth it).  D5 Toaster is dead due to sword wounds (if that's possible to do).  Persus reports no attack made on him.  We start talking.

If its not possible to get Toaster to kill Toaster - Toaster can still report what he experiences.  Persus reports no attack made on him.  We start talking.

1 Scum 3 Town - Imp's Scum and sneaky version - Tiruin does the plan, Toaster does the plan, Imp kills Tiruin or Toaster (if Imp doesn't, it's the 'everyone does what I suggested' version).  Persus reports he was attacked by the sword wielder.  We start talking.

1 Scum 3 Town - Persus's Scum and sneaky version - Identical to the Imp's Scum and sneaky version - save that Imp's a possible kill target (but a stupid one... if Imp dies AND Toaster knows he targeted Tiruin but Tiruin's still alive - Tiruin didn't kill Imp... AND Tiruin knows she redirected Toaster, so Toaster didn't kill Imp... only person left that could is Persus.  So really it's the same as the Imp's Scum version.

1 Scum 3 Town - Toaster's Scum and Sneaky version - If Toaster's Scum, he can probably pick to use his sword kill or the Scum kill.  He's still getting redirected to Persus - He still possibly could be redirected to himself - Toaster more or less has to play nice, but he could choose to not attack to avoid the chance of being redirected to himself (Town Toaster would probably be accepting of that possible death - trusting us to lynch the Scum who said she'd follow the plan then did something different).  Persus reports being attacked or not, and we start talking.

1 SK 3 Town - This version's identical to the Toaster's Scum and Sneaky version.  Only difference is Toaster only has the sword kill, not a choice of killing methods.  We start talking.

1 SK 1 Scum 2 Town - This is the headache.  It would almost certainly play out identical to a mix of the 1 SK 3 Town + whichever Scum individual version.  I expect we do a LOT of talking.... and that no matter what, we're not going to see a Town win.

But if we're lucky - Toaster's Town, and NQT is the Scum I so deeply believe he is.  It may end with this lynch.

Everyone: Thoughts today? What is your output on a No Lynch?
Oh, gods not no-lynch.  I highly suspect NQT of being Scum and I really don't suspect anyone else of being Scum.  I have to wonder and worry about a possible 4th Scum and/or a possible hostile 3rd party, but that's just because I want to win so very very badly, and my interpretation of my Wincon -requires- me to attempt such mental gymnastics because the exact current circumstances are what they are.

Please lets not no-lynch.  Egads.
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notquitethere

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Re: Supernatural Mafia 6 - Day 4 brings dark news
« Reply #689 on: November 22, 2013, 03:58:02 am »

I mostly don't have much time to post: busy weekend ahead. I just wanted to say that Persus and Toaster seem to believe my priest claim yet they still think it's plausible that I'm scum. Would the scum team really have two priests? I'm telling you all right now that I wouldn't ruin my breadcrumbing for future games by lying now. I breadcrumbed 'I am a cop' truthfully in Witches and even 'survivor' in Princesses (no one noticed at the time and I died before I could reveal it). Why would I lie now and in the first hour of play? No one's explained why I broke the tie and would have been responsible for killing Caz on Day 2 (were it not for the forum being down) when it was completely unnecessary for me to do so if I was scum. I think you're getting sloppy because you think you're right about me. My scumetrics repeatedly showed Max and Caz to be the scummiest- and now it points to Tiruin- I didn't fiddle the numbers, it's a fact that anyone can repeat. You're all so blinkered that you're hardly even questioning one another. Anything I say now you'll interpret as scum lies.


Tiruin wants a no lynch- what does that tell you? Imp's plan looks okay and on reflection, though I think them unlikely, it better accounts for the situations in which Toaster is a malicious third-party or Persus just had a one-shot (I'd expect someone to be 3rd party, but maybe not with only 11 players and 3 scum).

Imp, after this game we will talk about what is and is not a scumtell because you have a lot to learn. People disagreeing with you or finding your actions suspicious, even when you're town, is not a scumtell. (If it was, you'd all be scum!)

Tiruin, you going to tell everyone about the flavour you received when redirecting people? Persus and Imp and me all gave reasonable descriptions of what happened to us at night.
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