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Author Topic: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread  (Read 79103 times)

Sheb

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #105 on: May 21, 2014, 01:44:29 pm »

Hardly surprising. This deal was in the pipelines (lol) for years. Still, Russia is only exporting a tiny fraction of the volume it sends to Europe. Still a win/win overall I'd say. 
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Culise

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #106 on: May 21, 2014, 02:17:14 pm »

Interesting that the price is being kept secret, though.  We know that Russia wanted China to match the prices that Europe was paying, and China wanted a significant discount since, among other things, they already are getting cheaper gas from Turkmenistan.  Even as late as earlier this week, there was still talk about these latest talks were on the verge of falling through just like all of the others because of the matter of price.  I wonder if Russia or China blinked first, given how the ongoing situation in Ukraine and Russian threats to cut the flow westward were steadily undermining Russia's bargaining position in the matter. 
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RedKing

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #107 on: May 21, 2014, 02:18:50 pm »

That does seem to be the $400 billion dollar question. Putin has stated that the price is pegged to the price of oil, like their European contracts, but that doesn't mean that it's the same *ratio* of price.
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Gervassen

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #108 on: May 21, 2014, 06:07:42 pm »

The Shanxi coal business is certainly hard hit lately. You've got mining engineers not being paid for 3 months. Slowdown, mostly, but this kinda deal isn't any better news.
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mainiac

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #109 on: May 21, 2014, 07:24:37 pm »

Am I right in thinking this Russia China deal represents about 7% of the amount of natural gas russia sells to Europe?
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misko27

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #110 on: May 21, 2014, 08:12:36 pm »

Am I right in thinking this Russia China deal represents about 7% of the amount of natural gas russia sells to Europe?
It's certainly my impression. Not very helpful then beyond the symbolism of it, since Russia is hilariously dependent on Oil profit to remain in the black, and Europe suddenly up and going cold turkey would initiate self-destruct sequence.
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XXSockXX

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #111 on: May 21, 2014, 09:07:18 pm »

According to this, Europe imports 130 billion m³ Russian gas per year and Turkey 40 billion, China will get 38. Also the gas China will get will have to come from eastern Siberia, not from western Siberia where the gas that goes to Europe comes from, because of the pipeline infrastructure. So it's not a big deal for Europe, certainly not a problem in the near future.

Also Russia only gets about 350 dollar per 1000 m³ from China, not the 400 they wanted initially, while Germany currently pays about 365. So it seems to be symbolic on Russia's part indeed (they also need to build the pipelines, which makes the deal less profitable for them), while the Chinese made a good deal.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2014, 09:25:57 pm by XXSockXX »
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Ukrainian Ranger

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #112 on: May 22, 2014, 03:39:53 am »

Spoiler: heh (click to show/hide)
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Sheb

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #113 on: May 22, 2014, 03:56:12 am »

Well, pipelines aren't built overnight. I think it's safe to assume that over time China will gobble more and more Russian gas. As the European are moving away from Russian gas anyway, they need a new market.
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TamerVirus

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #114 on: May 22, 2014, 06:41:22 am »

...and now Thailand's army has decided to coup the government. Expected?
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Propman

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #115 on: May 22, 2014, 07:50:53 am »

Clearly they shall all be imprisoned for criticising the king's authority.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2014, 07:53:49 am by Propman »
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mainiac

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #116 on: May 22, 2014, 10:19:48 am »

Well, pipelines aren't built overnight. I think it's safe to assume that over time China will gobble more and more Russian gas.

Is that a safe assumption in an era of declining solar prices?
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XXSockXX

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #117 on: May 22, 2014, 12:00:40 pm »

Well, pipelines aren't built overnight. I think it's safe to assume that over time China will gobble more and more Russian gas.

Is that a safe assumption in an era of declining solar prices?
In the forseeable future probably yes, though it depends what the gas is used for.
If it is used for heating or as fuel it is way more convenient to use, also there are some industrial uses for it, if it is used to generate electrical power, it is much more replaceable.
Usage varies from country to country, for example Germany depends on gas for heating, but only gets 10% of it's electricity from gas, while it's 50% in Russia.
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10ebbor10

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #118 on: May 22, 2014, 12:22:28 pm »

Well, pipelines aren't built overnight. I think it's safe to assume that over time China will gobble more and more Russian gas.
Is that a safe assumption in an era of declining solar prices?
China's power consumption is massive, and in case of a major shift to renewables, then gas will be needed even more, in order stabilize the grid.
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Zangi

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Re: RedKing's East Asian Politics Megathread
« Reply #119 on: May 22, 2014, 01:25:26 pm »

Well, pipelines aren't built overnight. I think it's safe to assume that over time China will gobble more and more Russian gas.
Is that a safe assumption in an era of declining solar prices?
China's power consumption is massive, and in case of a major shift to renewables, then gas will be needed even more, in order stabilize the grid.
China is like a gigantic ravenous tortoise.  Considering that they are still consuming tons of coal.  (Though I guess they may be slowing down on that... slowly.)

...and now Thailand's army has decided to coup the government. Expected?
I find it kinda hilarious that RedKing posted about this just a few days ago...
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