Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Frumple]

I'm in favour of an eventual Scottish referendum, but not one right now. Of all the bad times.

To be fair I'd guess there is a pretty solid argument that a referendum should at least wait until the end on the EU-UK negotiations so that Scotland can choose its deal knowing what's on the table.

I mean... why? The actual content of the negotiations are kinda' irrelevant. The problem is that they can be started and gone through with in more or less complete defiance of what your people want. Unless the negotiations include full devolution there's not really anything that can be in them that's going to address that, and the sooner you split the sooner your own negotiations can start.

[martinuzz]

Apparently I was being prophetic when joking about 'sacrifice Gibraltar for a better trade deal' last week.
Spain has made it known that they wish to involve the status of Gibraltar in the Brexit negotiations.

In response, former conservative party leader Michael Howard has said that 'Our PM May is willing and able to defend Gibraltar, like Margareth Thatcher defended the Falkland islands', implying the UK would be willing to enter an armed conflict with the EU over Gibraltar if nescessary.

Furthermore, the Spanish minister of foreign affairs announced that SPain will not object to Scottish EU membership. This comes as a surprise, since Spain itself has issues with parts of the country wanting independence, and has thusfar been against Scottish independence.

The concept plan of Donald Tusk includes the Spanish wish of having a say over Gibraltar: In 1713, the Peace of Utrecht formally added Gibraltar to the British Empire. Donald Tusk's concept plan includes renegotiation of the Treaty of Utrecht. The plans will allow Spain to exclude the conflicted area of Gibraltar from a EU - UK trade agreement, if the UK refuses to sign a bilateral agreement over Gibraltar with Spain.
The government in Madrid already announced that Gibraltar airport can by no means fall under a EU - UK trade agreement.

Unsurprisingly, 96% of the inhabitants of Gibraltar voted against the Brexit.

[Azzuro]

In response, former conservative party leader Michael Howard has said that 'Our PM May is willing and able to defend Gibraltar, like Margareth Thatcher defended the Falkland islands', implying the UK would be willing to enter an armed conflict with the EU over Gibraltar if nescessary.

That escalated quickly. But does Spain have any legal claim to Gibraltar, seeing as the UK entered the EU with Gibraltar in its possession and thus should also leave with it? Or wait, is Spain even asking for control of Gibraltar, or just giving the UK a(nother) middle finger in the exit negotiations by excluding Gibraltar from them? Likely the Conservatives are doing some macho posturing hoping for the glory days of Thatcher.

In any case, Spain dropping opposition to Scottish EU entry can only fuel the calls for Independence Referendum v2. I'm predicting that before the two years are up, the whole EU implicitly says that an independent Scotland would be guaranteed express EU re-entry.

[ChairmanPoo]

The Spanish conservatives are also doing macho posturing. The Gibraltar PM complained that the Spanish goverment waves the status of Gibraltar whenever they want to draw attention away from domestic issues... and he's not very much off-target.

Tbh: I dont think it will get very serious, but there will be a lot of posturing on both sides and things will probably get harder for those living in Gibraltar (and those not living in Gibraltar but working there) as it seems likely that the frontier is going to become less permeable real soon.

Also: it does seem that there was some tradeoff behind the scenes does it not? Aka: no veto to Scotlamd in exchange for veto rights over Gib's status

[Starver]

Also: it does seem that there was some tradeoff behind the scenes does it not? Aka: no veto to Scotlamd in exchange for veto rights over Gib's status.

Rather puts paid to a Scottish(-Ulsterish?)-Gibraltean breakaway from the one Union to (re)join the other Union.

[martinuzz]

Best thing May can do is threaten to sell Gibraltar to Putin as a forward naval base.

EDIT: my newspaper's cartoonist on the Brexit:
http://www.volkskrant.nl/foto/bas-van-der-schot~p4368443/#&gid=1&pid=4419371

[hector13]

Best thing May can do is threaten to sell Gibraltar to Putin as a forward naval base.

EDIT: my newspaper's cartoonist on the Brexit:
http://www.volkskrant.nl/foto/bas-van-der-schot~p4368443/#&gid=1&pid=4419371

Pfft, the horrifically stereotypical Scot should be chained to May, not holding on for dear life.

[martinuzz]

Heh in my interpretation he's not holding on for dear life, he's being dragged over the edge of the cliff with her.

[Frumple]

... is it wrong to be vaguely amused by someone saying they care about the opinion of a group they're pissing on the opinion of? Why would gibraltar's opinion matter then when it didn't before and doesn't now?

Poor guys, though. First being dragged from the union they wanted to remain in, now being used as an excuse to threaten war and facing the likelihood of pretty severe economic repercussions regardless. Critters probably don't have a win condition for this one.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Recently, at least, California consistently votes Democrat. Would it be surprising to you if a Republican coordinated disaster relief for California? Or threatened to defend it were it invaded?

Well, Republican politicians openly talk about their contempt for California and how they hope its people will suffer from their various problems, and the party made Chris Christie a pariah for accepting disaster relief for New Jersey because it was offered by Obama's administration, so....er....

[Frumple]

Those things, maybe not (though some of the GOP political machine...). Those also don't even remotely resemble the situation the UK is saber rattling over. Wossname wasn't saying that shit in reaction to the threat of a land invasion, 'cause the EU didn't even imply it obliquely, much less as directly as that critter did. He was saying military response is on the table if friggin' negotiations didn't go the UK's way. Most of cali would be about seven different kinds of pissed if the GOP tried to pull shit like that, especially over the reps doing something CA was overwhelmingly against.

Not even sure what a proper stateside equivalent would be. Would have to be something ruddy weird involving guam or somethin'.

[Sheb]

As far as I can tell, EU bureaucrats mostly repeated "We're not going to try to be nice with the UK", not "We're going to screw them over intentionnally". The idea is that they're out to get the best deal for the EU, and the UK chose not to be a part anymore.

[TD1]

The idea is to make sure current member states don't get ideas about leaving. It seems the key method in doing so is intimidation.

[ChairmanPoo]

It wont get to war because both the Spanish and the British military are kind of ridiculous at this point, and both posturing conservative goverments are aware of how  if it got to that it would have the majesty of two grannies hitting each other with their purses and making everyone around facepalm.

Furthermore, I'm betting both parts will get strongly worded warnings from their neighbours, if the saber-rattling warms up too much.
Not sure about Trump, though. He looks lile the kind of guy who enjoys bumfights. And Bad Vlad would enjoy it as it would weaken Western Europe even further. But other than that? Not bloody likely

So yeah, everyone chill. Its business as usual.

[Strife26]

The actions of the EU are sure as heck threatening to British sovereignty, so Britain is more than justified in as much saber rattling as they care to do. Renting out national authority to the EU was always a devil's bargain, now we just get to see if Britain bouncing first means that they end up paying more or less than the rest of the continent.