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Author Topic: BYOR 15: Game Over - Mafia Win (Kinda?)  (Read 101210 times)

Jim Groovester

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #210 on: December 25, 2020, 03:05:17 am »

Do you think Bastanormal 3 provided you enough game to stop being such a newbie?

It took eleven years but with Bastard Paranormal 3 I think I can finally say I'm not a newbie anymore.

Jim G:
Toaster and notquitethere: sup bros also what's your opinion on the length of Day 1s and whether long Day 1s are actually productive or not?

Because we're in for a long Day 1.

The drive away from extensions happened sometime after I left.  I agree with its pros, at least, because I have seen several useless extensions.  Day 1 can totally be productive, and I feel the productivity:length ratio is irrelevant.  You can have short useless days and long great ones as well as the reverse.

Alright, let me refine my question some more.

I reread a bunch of games recently and a pattern I noticed is that as the day goes on (and on) players tend to reevaluate their suspicions and this results in several distinct bandwagons forming as the day goes on. With 120 hour days I'd say it's likely that there'll be two or three bandwagons form over the course of the day.

Is this productive over ending the day roughly in time for when the first solid consensus on a lynch target forms?

Mon Dieu, you really like leaping at people for activity even with less than two hours of the game having passed by.
It's such a shitty and unsatisfying reason to vote for someone that I need to set it up as far in advance as possible to gain any traction in convincing other players to go along with it. If the content of an early D1 post causes me to infer that I'm going to need to attempt to lynch a player over their lack of activity, that implies that I'm unlikely to have stronger reasons to think that player is scum later in the day since I won't have activity to draw such a conclusion from.

I see what you're getting at and agree in general but isn't less than two hours after the game starts of a 120 hour day 1 on Christmas Eve being overzealous about it?

In a game of mafia where the town is doing badly, who is more likely to know what's going on and lead the town to victory:

The group of 4 people?

or

The group of 2 people?

Spoiler: Additionally (click to show/hide)

I don't know wtf you're asking about. If you want me to answer something can you not ask me in riddles?
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I understood nothing, contributed nothing, but still got to win, so good game everybody else.

dolores

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #211 on: December 25, 2020, 03:56:58 am »

I see what you're getting at and agree in general but isn't less than two hours after the game starts of a 120 hour day 1 on Christmas Eve being overzealous about it?
Yes, probably?
I don't think that the principle doesn't apply. It's side stuff with mostly inactive players that ideally will never be followed up upon and if it does come up again (because the inactivity has swelled to the point where people can actually care about it) it is to my advantage to have brought attention to it as long ago as possible. The cost of it pretty much comes down to the fact that it's kind of rude but I'm not so invested in winning that I'm going to apply the idol strats and put on a likeable persona just for the game.

heydude6: any particular reason you chose to ask a game-unrelated meta question to a bunch of people, mostly inactives, rather than follow up some strand of analysis that already existed in the thread which the games you linked clearly indicated you are able to do?
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IcyTea31

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #212 on: December 25, 2020, 04:36:05 am »

There's a few reasons. None of them are "because you're town". I'm going to assume bad play for now though.
It's clear we've played in very different metagames lately, for you to make that analysis, so I'd like to understand you better. Name those reasons.



Everyone: What's going on with "Leave Comments"? How on earth do you think that works?
I asked wuba, and the answer as along the lines of "there is no explanation that would adequately answer that question".

Quote
the comments thing is freaking me out
Why is it freaking you out? Don't you want to appear to play the same regardless of alignment, or should I take a sudden change in your apparent strategy as a sign of an alignment shift?



If it can be used to kill Wacky And Hilarious Hijinks
You believe Leave Comment can target you?



Just as well day one won't accomplish much, though I would like to see a lynch go through with the sheer number of people.
Alright, who do you think we should lynch?



You tell me, nerd.
All will be revealed in time.



Rolefishing, I'd wager.
Expand on this, please. How does self-voting myself motivate you to tell me about your abilities?



That's a good question. I have three theories:

1. Your self-vote has something to do with one of your abilities
2. You want to see how we react to your self vote to hopefully gain information
3. You just want to add to the shenanigans
Interesting theories. Which one do you think is most likely? Which alignment would you associate theory #3 with?

Quote
I mean I know it's a BYOR but I'm reading through the thread now and it turns out I actually don't have much patience for games.
What do you have patience for, then? I thought we all gathered here to play games, no?



4maskwolf: What did you think of my self-vote?



In a game of mafia where the town is doing badly, who is more likely to know what's going on and lead the town to victory:

The group of 4 people?

or

The group of 2 people?
If there's a 4-person town core and it's not infiltrated by scum, the town isn't doing badly. If there's a town core of only 2 people and there isn't just 1 scum left, they definitely have their work cut out for them (assuming no protective power roles).

How important do you consider townhunting in comparison to scumhunting?
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notquitethere

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #213 on: December 25, 2020, 04:53:29 am »

Pfp

Hey it's me, NQT. Merry Christmas everyone, looking forward to playing with you all again. Just a general disclaimer: my playstyle doesn't start really rolling until D2 (though please dont nk me tonight) but I'll still be active today (except maybe not today today as it's Christmas).

Dolores
notquitethere|: thoughts on how you think the stronger players who haven't played in a long time and are likely unfamiliar with the meta that's been going on with ICT/4mask/etc. are going to react, any particular thoughts you feel would be important to point out to me to play around?
I've played plenty of mafia games where people unfamiliar with each others style have been at each other's throat because they think there's something suspicious about that style: I recall a game I played on another site where they thought I was dodgy for asking lots of random questions, whereas that's the Bay12 opening move. Conversely, I've seen people get a pass because no one wanted to try to wrangle with their otherness. My main advice is, if you think someone is being weird about something and you're starting to tunnel them, maybe step back and ask another player what they think of the disagreement. You seen any odd stuff today so far?

NJW2000 RE: the commenting power, I think we'll have to experiment and see how it works in practise. Insane powers are common in this format, but bear in mind they're usually balanced out against each other-- in this case it seems like the effects of the power aren't certain and are filtered through what Wuba wants to implement. Make sense?

Jim usually I like short snappy days, but given its Christmastime and my time is constrained, a long d1 is actually preferable. Don't know how I'll feel about it by d2 end! What do you think about them?

heydude6 do you play well under pressure?
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IcyTea31

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #214 on: December 25, 2020, 04:58:21 am »

notquitethere: Let's follow your own advice: what's the weirdest thing you've seen so far, and what do you think of it?
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Caz

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #215 on: December 25, 2020, 05:15:12 am »

6 pages already and this game looks to be unpleasant.
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dolores

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #216 on: December 25, 2020, 05:17:04 am »

You seen any odd stuff today so far?
Heydude's OP was pretty damn odd. I feel like some of the newer players are playing beneath the standards of their own ability, but for the most part not really (and there's a lot of mechanical noize and people stomping right now so I kind of expect but won't forgive players succumbing to low confidence).
My suspicion is that there is likely going to be a metagame spat between Leafsnail and ICT+doll if we're all still in the game and it doesn't just devolve into mechanics (and LS is town), but it also probably won't really impact the game or anyone's core cases.

If it can be used to kill Wacky And Hilarious Hijinks
You believe Leave Comment can target you?
No, I was thinking it could target abilities, but that's wrong, it's 'role names'.
It should be able to target my role name (also, probably the town alignment), but if that has a non-visual effect (if it changed my abilities) it'd probably disable or alter the wincon.

ICT: thoughts on what town should do if we do end up with a cluster of 3-4 mostly inactive players? How does what we know about the format so far impact the play compared to a more conventional closed setup game?
Vector: I'd be very interested in your take on the above questions. Also, in general, when is it better to lynch a player that is anti-town due to inactivity/disengagement compared to a player who actually seems like they might be scum?
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IcyTea31

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #217 on: December 25, 2020, 05:39:19 am »

6 pages already and this game looks to be unpleasant.
Does that mean you're not going to play for the town wincon? Because that's a thing you do by posting insightful things in the day, not by complaining about the high player count forcing players to cast their nets wide.



ICT: thoughts on what town should do if we do end up with a cluster of 3-4 mostly inactive players?
The same thing we do every night, Pinky - try to take over the game! Actually, I have a plan for that, but one that I won't uncork just yet.

Quote
How does what we know about the format so far impact the play compared to a more conventional closed setup game?
I don't know what we know, but I know that it will take more than conventional daygame to win this one. For instance, a bit of humility, a tad of self-awareness, and a smidgen of self-voting.
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Caz

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #218 on: December 25, 2020, 05:50:27 am »

6 pages already and this game looks to be unpleasant.
Does that mean you're not going to play for the town wincon? Because that's a thing you do by posting insightful things in the day, not by complaining about the high player count forcing players to cast their nets wide.

yeah i was working on a post but if everyone's going to be like this the entire game from 3am xmas day then definitely not interested.


replace out
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notquitethere

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #219 on: December 25, 2020, 07:13:29 am »

yeah i was working on a post but if everyone's going to be like this the entire game from 3am xmas day then definitely not interested.
Hey I'd be sorry to see you go before we've even really begun. Mafia can engender a sort of hostile tone in a lot of players but it's all fun and games really, best to let it be like water off a duck's back and just engage with the parts of the game that you enjoy. Do you want to sleep on it and come back after Christmas instead of dropping?
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ToonyMan

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #220 on: December 25, 2020, 07:53:04 am »

Unvote Caz.

@dolores:
Getting voted and lynched wouldn't count as being targeted by an ability though right?
That's my understanding. I'm unlynchable though.
(me, the player, not anything mechanically relevant concept)
Like I said to ICT, my main mechanical fear is external vote manipulation which I don't necessarily have the ability to prevent. I don't think that many townies will be talked into seriously committing to a dolores lynch.
You're undisputedly pro-town, but don't believe in vote pressure?

Right, so what's this right after:
FallacyofUrist
I kinda dislike unvoting caz here because I don't think their behavior to date is acceptable, but I also think a resting vote is going to bother FoU a lot more
You're voting FoU to pressure them.

What's going on with "Leave Comments"?
I can't use it though, and can't be targeted, so unless the the town alignment wincon that I share is changed or my revealed ability is targeted by name and changed it can only impact my game indirectly.
If it can be used to kill Wacky And Hilarious Hijinks, that's probably part of a possible route for an all-players win (I have an extra and very easy wincon that is blocked by it, so if someone can pass around copies of my role with the action-blocker removed it shouldn't be too hard to organize).
And how would we go about removing your action-blocker to do this? By targeting you?

If you take off my shackles though I'm just going to fuck off into the winners lounge at the earliest opportunity rather than help anyone else, though.
Yeah...go away.

Interesting.  What do you believe in?  How do you get information out of someone recalcitrant, if not pressure?
There's no way of getting information out of someone recalcitrant. You can always just not post, and it's impossible to really draw any kind of conclusions from that; eventually all you know is that the person isn't contributing to the town. Ideally, I'd have some indicator that the person doesn't have an interest in doing so, like a bad reply to a post where they're accused of (active) lurking from before they go radio silent, which increasingly helps me convince other players to vote for them as it goes unresolved but does not actually tell me any more about their alignment than it did the first time they posted the response.
And...? Not posting is a completely possible and even effective scum tactic. This is especially true past Day 1.

Really?  You don't think it's possible for a scum player to accidentally out their buddy or reveal a non-mafia through excessive force?  I have pegged a townie before by seeing a mafioso tunnel down said townie with silly arguments.  You don't ever look for that?
Not at all. This is pure WIFOM. You're basing your reads of other players on the posts of someone with an intrinsic information advantage they want to deceive you about. To give a trivial example, if there was a formula for acting out a sequence where poor arguments are used to attack a player and so subsequently on your lynch the town accepted that that person was probably town, in any mountainous game with more than one mafscum you could act out this scenario with one of your partners, get lynched, and then let them coast to the win on the pro-town-appearance of your act.
I'm hoping to discern the motivations of other players and then judge what alignment that player would have those motivations as. I don't learn anything about a player's motivations from the content of another player (except where it provokes a reaction from the examinee).
No. No.

Unless you're some lame-o who doesn't read their role PM before posting, everyone knows their alignment and possible scum buddies when the game starts. The fact is:
1. Town don't know anybody else's alignment
2. Mafia know their buddies' alignments

People will act differently whether they're town or mafia. Disputing this is the same as denying the game of mafia itself. The challenge is for the mafia players to pass off as town.



@NJW2000:
Toonyman: how do you feel about dolores not being targetable? Angry? Envious? Unimpressed? Relieved? Strangely aroused?
Aroused.

Everyone: What's going on with "Leave Comments"?
Not sure. If it can convert alignments then town -> something else is possible, but mafia -> something else likely isn't, and especially not mafia -> town. So I think alignment shifts would be extremely bad and chaotic for town.

Webadict didn't respond to my mod question so obviously it's in the dark.

General musings: the comments thing is freaking me out, there's already two pages since the start of the game despite many people not having posted yet, and it would be hilarious if the [REDACTED] ability Dolores is allowed to use was the scumkill.
I doubt it.



@Leafsnail:
Merry 1:30am on Christmas day, everyone! I would sincerely like to know how everyone's Christmas is/was this year.
Leafsnail: I've got it on good authority (my own) that there are wincons in this game besides basic factional ones. How important do you think semi-bastard strats like converting everyone to the same cult and having a huge group/all players win together are likely to be in the game?
My guess would be not very. I assume most players have picked a high level of Shenanigans and that will probably make it very difficult to form any reliable plan at night. That's both due to town roles potentially having uncontrollable elements and the possibility of unclaimed scum roles falling outside of any reasonable expectation. That kind of breaking strategy is much more likely to happen in a game with known or at least relatively sane roles.
Hohoho! Yes I will post on Christmas morning.

So, who's scum? Do you think scum are more likely to have a higher shenanigan number?



@Toaster:
LuckyOwl:  Did you kill and eat IronyOwl?  I keep getting confused.
You won't believe how many times I typed IronyOwl in Bastard Paranormal 3.



@IcyTea:
There's a few reasons. None of them are "because you're town". I'm going to assume bad play for now though.
It's clear we've played in very different metagames lately, for you to make that analysis, so I'd like to understand you better. Name those reasons.
1. Voting yourself because you're a jester.
2. Voting yourself because your best interests are in survival, aka "not being a jester vote self" gambit.
3. Voting yourself because you're not town.

Seriously why? If you think good town play is to reactionarly catch scum then you're wrong.



@Caz:
6 pages already and this game looks to be unpleasant.
It's a 16 player BYOR, what did you expect?

6 pages already and this game looks to be unpleasant.
Does that mean you're not going to play for the town wincon? Because that's a thing you do by posting insightful things in the day, not by complaining about the high player count forcing players to cast their nets wide.
yeah i was working on a post but if everyone's going to be like this the entire game from 3am xmas day then definitely not interested.
replace out
Not all of us are crazy. I'm sure people will give you a break for not posting much on Christmas.
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IcyTea31

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #221 on: December 25, 2020, 08:06:59 am »

Seriously why?
Do you believe everything you said to dolores in the same post?

Quote
If you think good town play is to reactionarly catch scum then you're wrong.
What do you mean by "reactionarily" here?
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ToonyMan

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #222 on: December 25, 2020, 08:22:38 am »

Seriously why?
Do you believe everything you said to dolores in the same post?
Yep.

Quote
If you think good town play is to reactionarly catch scum then you're wrong.
What do you mean by "reactionarily" here?
"If I act really dumb then scum will dogpile me and I'll have them dead to rights!"

No, you won't. Bad play will have town and scum all over you, and then you'll have to defend your bad play or apologize and stop voting yourself.
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4maskwolf

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #223 on: December 25, 2020, 08:29:32 am »

4maskwolf: any strong impressions from toaster/jim/toony/vector/njw (the players besides FoU with longform responses) so far?
It's D1, so by definition no.  Gun to my head, neutral/scum/neutral/slight town/neutral in that order, plus town on you.

4maskwolf: What did you think of my self-vote?
Well I wasn't going to engage with this but since you asked directly okay.  You're reaction fishing in an incredibly hamfisted way.  You wanted to rattle the cage a little bit on D1 by doing something out of the ordinary and see how people's reactions fall.  Now to turn the question back around to you: did you feel you got anything useful out of your little fishing expedition?

heydude: The insight about scum being able to use their numbers and knowledge to control the narrative is a good one, especially for a new player, but it's missing an important corollary: town far outnumber scum, and can use their numbers to close ranks and lock the scum out in the cold.  The most townsided stomps I've been a part of (Paranormal 25 and 26) were partly the result of the town finding each other before the scum could get the mislynches they needed and systematically wiping out the outsiders.  Mechanical methods certainly helped, but you have to be willing to extend a certain level of trust to win as town.  Take a look at how webadict plays, not so much his D1s but the other days.  A big part of what makes him successful at scumhunting and closing out games is that he's willing to extend trust to others, even if they haven't fully earned it, and work with them to eliminate the people he doesn't trust.

yeah i was working on a post but if everyone's going to be like this the entire game from 3am xmas day then definitely not interested.
Hey I'd be sorry to see you go before we've even really begun. Mafia can engender a sort of hostile tone in a lot of players but it's all fun and games really, best to let it be like water off a duck's back and just engage with the parts of the game that you enjoy. Do you want to sleep on it and come back after Christmas instead of dropping?
Seconding this.  I'm sorry the game has been unpleasant for you so far, Caz.

TricMagic

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Re: BYOR 15: Day 1 - We're Just Getting Started
« Reply #224 on: December 25, 2020, 08:32:00 am »

Dolores. Read on the next post after mine that you think others have alternate wincons. Which makes you suspect number one for me. Why do you think others have alternate wincons unless you received something or have one yourself?
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