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Author Topic: Paranormal Mafia - Round 17 - Game Over!  (Read 230056 times)

Mephansteras

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Re: Paranormal Mafia - Round 17 - Day 3 - Replacement found
« Reply #690 on: November 30, 2010, 02:04:32 pm »

Day is now Extended to ~5pm Pacific Wednesday
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Argembarger

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Re: Paranormal Mafia - Round 17 - Day 3 - Replacement found
« Reply #691 on: November 30, 2010, 02:15:34 pm »

I am highly interested in your forthcoming posts, Dariush.

In the meantime: Ottofar, why do you think we should vote Kamina over you? Argue something.

Leafsnail and JTF, what do you think of the possibility of Mish/Dariush exterminatorship?

I think it's an intriguing theory, and it seems to fit nicely to the evidence.

Dariush: (obviously,) why are you or aren't you the exterminator?
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Jim Groovester

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Re: Paranormal Mafia - Round 17 - Day 3 - Replacement found
« Reply #692 on: November 30, 2010, 03:03:37 pm »

I pretty much hate everything about the post you just made, Argembarger.

For one, you drop some FoSes and you don't say why. That's the big thing.

And then you ask a bunch of useless questions and make empty commentary.

Why do you apparently suspect Ottofar and Leafsnail? Reasonless suspicions are bad for the same reason reasonless votes are, but to a lesser degree.
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Argembarger

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Re: Paranormal Mafia - Round 17 - Day 3 - Replacement found
« Reply #693 on: November 30, 2010, 03:29:47 pm »

How are my questions useless, exactly?

Ottofar waltzes in, throws a few sentences of speculation down, and votes Kamina with his only evidence being a massive quotedump. It's not an argument, it's like if you're assigned an essay and all you hand in to the professor is your source material. I want him to elaborate.

Leafsnail and JTF are still over there ripping each others throats out, at least when Leaf hasn't been going after Kamina as usual. They haven't really mentioned Mish at all. I'm interested in what they think of the situation. It might even get Leaf talking about something other than Kamina or JTF or you for once.

The FoS's I threw down are because they seem scummy to me, and because I want their attention. Ottofar's on the chopping block over there and barely seems to care. Leafsnail's quite a bit lower than Ottofar on my scum list, but there is no half-FoS option. Perhaps I should have put his name in teal?

And then my question for Dariush, well, yeah. Webadict's over there claiming 99% certainty that Dariush is the Exterminator. It's obvious that he's gonna have to deal with that soon. I figured I might as well phrase it as a formal question.

My commentary is pretty empty, yeah, but that's because I'm still stealthposting from my classes, I don't have time to start digging up a bunch of quotes. I'll be back home in a little bit. Perhaps I'll do that then, yeah? But my suspicions are not baseless, and my questions are not useless.
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Zathras

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Re: Paranormal Mafia - Round 17 - Day 3 - Replacement requested
« Reply #694 on: November 30, 2010, 04:15:06 pm »

Stun Orbs are indeed supposed to be chainless.
I'm surprised you answered this; I thought Web specifically worded it as a question you wouldn't answer to increase the WIFOM level of the conversation. But thanks; that should put it to rest at last.

Quote from: Meph
Although...that gives me an idea for a new Alien Tech...
Oh gods no... life's already hard enough for a poor warden. This game should serve as a case study for why wardens should be careful about claiming: they will spend the next week battling "you are alien!" charges even after saving a townie life and hanging a dopp.


Now that that's out of the way, a couple of extra points:


Alright, then. If Meph says Stun Orbs are Chainless, I can assume that Zathras is a Psychic Warden. If that's the case, then Mish is likely the Exterminator. Now, if THAT'S the case, then we don't have to worry about the Exterminator, but if someone was protected from a kill last Night, then claiming it now would be nice. Otherwise, I think it can be assumed to about a 99% accuracy that Mish is the Exterminator.

I don't buy this. The only thing that may point to Mish being the exterminator is that he was away during the night when there was no exterminator kill. I think the guardian option is just as likely. Also, no one can claim to have been protected, dumbass, because you don't know that you've been protected by a guardian (only an Observant Guard would do that, but would have died). Are you asking the guardian to claim? How would that not backfire?


Quote from: web
And the Medium thing was an aside. If there's no Medium, it can't be proven. Whatever.
This, plus the guardian bit, show you are spinning WIFOMy tales to distract the town. The chances of there being a third medium are negligible, and you know it.

I think that you are going all out "KILL THE EXTERMINATOR" because you are the exterminator, and your leading the chase for him would implicitly clear you. You know there's a guardian, who protected your target last night, and decided that the best way to obscure the fact would be to resuscitate the WIFOM about me being it, and tech choices, orbs, and whatnot. Or at least get him to claim, or throw the blame on the absent Mish. The amount of wine you've spewed over your last few posts is nauseating.

No. I'm still convinced you are scum; your relentless wine spewing over the exterminator makes me think you are scum of the alien variety, rather than dopp, and thus you should hang today. I'd block you tonight, but if you are the exterminator, as I suspect, then you would be immune to it.
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Jim Groovester

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Re: Paranormal Mafia - Round 17 - Day 3 - Replacement found
« Reply #695 on: November 30, 2010, 04:32:35 pm »

The FoS's I threw down are because they seem scummy to me,

I want to know why you think that way, not just that you do.

Spell it out for me. I want to know exactly why you suspect them. This sort of vague half-suspicion thing you're trying to pull is a bunch of crap.

How are my questions useless, exactly?

Because you won't get any meaningful answers from them.

Dariush: (obviously,) why are you or aren't you the exterminator?

This question is useless because you're basically asking for WIFOM. Even if he is the Exterminator, he will obviously deny it, and the only thing you're going to get is several hypothetical reasons that can't be trusted. In other words, worthless.

Leafsnail and JTF, what do you think of the possibility of Mish/Dariush exterminatorship?

This question is useless because anybody with a brain can talk generally and blandly about it in a way that reveals nothing about themselves.

Even aside from that, the only thing this question serves to accomplish is to get people thinking about Dariush being the Exterminator, which is completely pointless to talk about until he comes and posts.

You say you suspect Ottofar. Why aren't you voting him? What do you have against MBP if you're keeping your vote on him while throwing FoSes around like little blue candies to people you say you suspect?
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Mysteriousbluepuppet

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Re: Paranormal Mafia - Round 17 - Day 3 - Replacement requested
« Reply #696 on: November 30, 2010, 04:41:39 pm »

Then please Zathras, since you obviously are the warden, who would you block tonight ? Kamina is right out, and if we follow yesterday jim would be too obvious ( wich hardly makes much sense to me, really) So, whos the lucky guy ?
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Toaster

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Re: Paranormal Mafia - Round 17 - Day 3 - Replacement found
« Reply #697 on: November 30, 2010, 05:04:38 pm »

In the meantime: Ottofar, why do you think we should vote Kamina over you? Argue something.

No sir, this is crap.  You're foisting a false dilemma on him, and making him do your work for you.  This is noticeably scummy, Argembarger.

Then please Zathras, since you obviously are the warden, who would you block tonight ? Kamina is right out, and if we follow yesterday jim would be too obvious ( wich hardly makes much sense to me, really) So, whos the lucky guy ?

Why would him saying publicly who he plans to block do anybody town any good?  The only thing it could do is warn off the scum team if he happens to announce a member.  This is crap too, MBP.
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Mysteriousbluepuppet

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Re: Paranormal Mafia - Round 17 - Day 3 - Replacement found
« Reply #698 on: November 30, 2010, 05:23:02 pm »

Would help me see what are his ideas. Right now, except his weird love for Kamina,  we don't know anything on his plans. Really, if hes really outed as a warden, the scum wont take too long to get him. he has not died last night, so here are the classic probablitys :

 He is a warden, and he was protected form the exterminator. Possible, but not that likely.
 he is a warden, and he was not protected, the exterminator has not acted. Only makes sense if Mish is the exterminator, else i doubt anybody would have waited to get rid of such a powerfull role.
 he is a dopp, probly with Kamina. Explains why the dopp would leave him alone (duh) and again the exterminator could be Mish or just decided to take a break
He is the exterminator,  and decided not to kill, or hes been blocked. Blocked would be surprising to me, but just refraining to throw suspicion on Mish sounds devious enough for Zathy here. Again, a Zath-Kamina alien team would explain the block choice. In my opinion, choosing Jim would have had greater weight to me, considering he did most of the work on Pandar. And that Kamina is pretty much BFF with him.
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JanusTwoface

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Re: Paranormal Mafia - Round 17 - Day 3 - Replacement found
« Reply #699 on: November 30, 2010, 06:27:13 pm »

And I thought I posted long posts. Webadict, yours are a little bit on the crazy (long) side.

Dariush, welcome! Please do your best to post something of content by tomorrow afternoon. Even if you haven't read through everything, get into the discussion as soon as possible.

Spoiler: Long Version (click to show/hide)

Short Version:
- Random chance puts the odds at 1.5 town deaths tonight (rather than the 2 Webadict was spouting)
- I suggested Zathras' PM exchange, but he got what I meant slightly wrong, doubt it was on purpose though
- Zathras is also self-preservative, null-tell for him
- Zathras is almost certainly a Psychic Warden
- Zathras is probably (although not confirmed) town, this doesn't mean anything about KaminaSquirtle
- I have no idea what is going though Mysteriousbluepuppet's mind
- Ottofar is ignoring reality, still think he's the primary lynch target
- Zathras should *not* publically claim who he's going to block tonight
- You really should read the Long Version, but it's long
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Leafsnail

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Re: Paranormal Mafia - Round 17 - Day 3 - Replacement found
« Reply #700 on: November 30, 2010, 06:35:19 pm »

Short Version:
- Random chance puts the odds at 1.5 town deaths tonight (rather than the 2 Webadict was spouting)
- I suggested Zathras' PM exchange, but he got what I meant slightly wrong, doubt it was on purpose though
- Zathras is also self-preservative, null-tell for him
- Zathras is almost certainly a Psychic Warden
- Zathras is probably (although not confirmed) town, this doesn't mean anything about KaminaSquirtle
- I have no idea what is going though Mysteriousbluepuppet's mind
- Ottofar is ignoring reality, still think he's the primary lynch target
- Zathras should *not* publically claim who he's going to block tonight
- You really should read the Long Version, but it's long
I think I'll create a shorter version, containing only content that is relevant to finding scum:
-

Leafsnail and JTF, what do you think of the possibility of Mish/Dariush exterminatorship?

I think it's an intriguing theory, and it seems to fit nicely to the evidence.
There are other possible explanations.  Declaring someone as a guarenteed exterminator over something like this is just silly.
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Jim Groovester

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Re: Paranormal Mafia - Round 17 - Day 3 - Replacement found
« Reply #701 on: November 30, 2010, 06:39:49 pm »

Janus:
Argembarger:  If you're so concerned about a tiebreaker, why aren't you pressing the people who are in the tie?  With your unvote, that's Otto and Leaf.
I'm pretty sure you've got that bass-ackwards. He said that there's an extension, so we have 24 more hours to worry about a tied vote.
He has more time, sure, but he's not using it to question either of them.
He's new. I want to give him a chance to learn, particularly while there are scummier people about to lynch (Ottofar). He's been getting better at least.

Argembarger said he wanted to be treated like everybody else when replaced in. There's no reason to give him slack if he doesn't want any.

I think I'll create a shorter version, containing only content that is relevant to finding scum:
-

Dude, that fucking hyphen is critical.
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JanusTwoface

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Re: Paranormal Mafia - Round 17 - Day 3 - Replacement found
« Reply #702 on: November 30, 2010, 06:42:51 pm »

Argembarger said he wanted to be treated like everybody else when replaced in. There's no reason to give him slack if he doesn't want any.
I had for gotten that. I still think that Argembarger had the right idea and Toaster the wrong for the original point though. Even within the original first extension, the vote has already changed quite a bit. It wasn't something that would cause problems back then.

I think I'll create a shorter version, containing only content that is relevant to finding scum:
-
Dude, that fucking hyphen is hypocritical.
Fixed that for you.
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Leafsnail

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Re: Paranormal Mafia - Round 17 - Day 3 - Replacement found
« Reply #703 on: November 30, 2010, 06:45:25 pm »

Well, no part of that post says anything about who is scum, or who should be lynched.  You could skip it all without having lost anything.
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JanusTwoface

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Re: Paranormal Mafia - Round 17 - Day 3 - Replacement found
« Reply #704 on: November 30, 2010, 07:12:12 pm »

Well, no part of that post says anything about who is scum, or who should be lynched.  You could skip it all without having lost anything.
Wrong. There's one contradicting a potential scum tell, another saying who I don't think is scum and who still could be (read the long version for more on KaminaSquirtle, which you obviously haven't), and the point on Ottofar is quite obviously who should be lynched.  Even beyond that, a quite solid percentage is game related in some form or another, the exception being the mathy bit of 1.5 townie deaths mostly being intended as humorous (even if true mathematically).

The part I think you just completely don't get is that if you ignore everything but what is obviously scummy / scumtells in general, you are going to lose against anyone but an obvious noobscum team.  Even semi-talented scum know how to hide scum tells. What you have to look at instead is how they're trying to help the town. Are they helping the town win or just helping the town? Essentially, it comes down to starting with everyone is scum and removing candidates (by feel or by lynch) until you have the scum.

I know this isn't the only playstyle out there, but it's mine.  If you're too narrow-minded not to see the value of it, then by all means keep tunneling me until you get a lynch.  I doubt it will do you any good today and I know for sure that it's not doing the town as a whole any good, but I doubt I'm going to be able to change your mind.
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