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Author Topic: Brexit! Conversation Continued  (Read 182543 times)

palsch

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Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« Reply #45 on: June 29, 2016, 12:25:57 am »

Just to clarify some confusion I saw in the other thread about Corbyn, he can be forced out. But it isn't simple.

The vote of no confidence was no more binding than the referendum, and only showed the views of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP), excluding the 20 MEPs who weren't invited to my knowledge. It arguably makes his position untenable but doesn't end it.

However, a leadership election can be triggered if one or more MP gets the backing of at least 20% of the PLP. If ~51 Labour MPs/MEPs can rally behind a single candidate then there will be a leadership contest.

The problem is that Corbyn is seen as the easy favourite, as the two big lobbies are his Momentum group (~8,000 members but tens of thousands of supporters) and the unions, both of which still back him. He won without the PLP last time and could easily do it again, likely triggering a split in the Labour party or at least a number of defections.

There is conflicting legal advice over whether Corbyn can be kept from the ballot. Essentially he doesn't believe he needs the 20% support and that as the current leader he should automatically be on the ballot. His opponents have advice saying he would need that 20% support, which looks unlikely given he only had 40 MPs backing him in the confidence motion and that number has decreased since. So there could be a court battle that decides whether Corbyn can face the challenge at all or is simply deposed by lawyers.

In that case I'd expect to see Corbyn and his core supporters jump party, although where they go depends on if they can count on union support or not. Expect to see a lot of meetings between his potential challengers and the big unions in the coming days.
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Sheb

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Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« Reply #46 on: June 29, 2016, 01:23:21 am »

Hey, LW, it's fun to see some of the past getting realigned for your argument's sake. Like the fact that the polls where neck and neck, with a bunch of them predicting Brexit.

Also, I don't really see the EU trying to punish the Brits. Sure, Juncker and Schultz have been loud, but they're also powerless in this case (And Juncker might be forced to resign for this). It's a Council matter, and so far, the answer seems to have been "Sure, you can leave, but we won't negotiate until we know for certain you're leaving. Sort yourself out, Britain", both from Tusk, Merkel, Ayrault and others. I don't see how you can call that "punishing" Britain.

And one more thing: given that BoJo did the classical Eton-Oxford-MP rigmarole, how is it you don't consider him an Oxbridge politician?

And I have one more question for Rolan7. In the other thread, you mentioned the fact that EU citizens have freedom of movement has an example that the leave campaign lied on Britain having control of its borders. Did the Leave campaign really made such a claim (about having control re:European citizens moving around)? I don't remember one, but that'd be a lie, yeah.
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Sergarr

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Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« Reply #47 on: June 29, 2016, 02:25:33 am »

I am going to assert that no one thought I was comparing Brexit to the holocaust or economic suicide.
And I'm going to disagree, because I am someone who saw you make a lot of assumptions about the laws and attitudes of my country and freaking compare it to bombing banks and committing mass genocide. What did men like this die for? Ha, fuck their finest hour, they stood in the way of the Commission, that means they're genocidal nazis.
But when else will I get the moment to call an entire nation (well, 52% of it) as "idiotic racist retards who shouldn't have been allowed to vote at all", and then call everyone who objects to my words as "xenophobic bumfuck nazis who're going to suffer economical destruction and total misery", all the while being cheered on by large masses of the "educated and highly cultured" Europeans?

It's a unique once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, you see.
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mainiac

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Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« Reply #48 on: June 29, 2016, 02:59:35 am »

Yeah, sorry, democratic politics isn't a game where you get to quickload over and over until the RNG gives you the outcome you want.
Hey man, trying again was exactly what the leave campaign intended to do if they lost. Goose and gander et al. Kinda' hard to say it's fair to cry foul when you're on record saying you'd do the same thing.

It's Democracy (TM) when my side wins.  It's not Democracy (TM) when the other side wins.

You gotta feel sorry for the conservatives.  When liberals lose a case on say, gay marriage, they know that they can just try again ten years down the line and probably win.  If you have that wind at your back you dont need to be so obdurate in your outlook.  The reversal of the California gay marriage law for instance was a huge disappointment but not the end of the world because... well we all knew that the reversal would get reversed in time.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2016, 03:10:03 am by mainiac »
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Ultimuh

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Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« Reply #49 on: June 29, 2016, 03:41:23 am »

So did they actually get out of the EU, or did they crawl back apologizing?
I am a bit out of touch with current events.
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palsch

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Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« Reply #50 on: June 29, 2016, 03:47:16 am »

So did they actually get out of the EU, or did they crawl back apologizing?
I am a bit out of touch with current events.

The referendum was advisory only. The UK voted to leave, but now the government has to work out what to actually do. Currently that is run around on fire.
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Sheb

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Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« Reply #51 on: June 29, 2016, 04:00:06 am »

Yeah, basically, the people voted leave, everyone decided they didn't want to deal with the consequences so they're all busy avoiding as much responsability, meanwhile the European countries are trying to understand what the fuck the UK government wants and privately wondering if De Gaulle wasn't right.


Edit: Nice hindsight in the power struggle going on in Brussels to know who's going to lead the negotiations. I wonder if the pressure on Junckers to resign is part of this, making him understand that he has to accept a back seat if he wants to keep a seat at all.
« Last Edit: June 29, 2016, 04:14:38 am by Sheb »
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scrdest

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Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« Reply #52 on: June 29, 2016, 04:27:09 am »

@LW if you're so confident that Brexit is 'what the people want'...

Wouldn't supporting a second referendum be the more consistent belief here? If they truly do want it, all the result will prove is 'yep, Brexit o'clock'.

It sounds more like you believe it won't pan out the same way. But hey, vox populi, vox dei, isn't it?
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Sergarr

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Ultimuh

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Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« Reply #54 on: June 29, 2016, 05:16:56 am »

92 to 0? So the other 8 abstained?
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SirQuiamus

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Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« Reply #55 on: June 29, 2016, 05:49:22 am »

So did they actually get out of the EU, or did they crawl back apologizing?
I am a bit out of touch with current events.
A quick recap of "current events:" The Remainers are intensely butthurt because they lost a fair and democratic referendum, and the Leavers are intensely butthurt because the Remainers are saying mean and nasty things about them. At this point the whole "debate" has devolved into a typical culture war conflict à la internet: all participants are crying like babies and flinging shit at the opposing side while the issue itself slips further into oblivion.

Good times. *grabs more popcorn*
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mainiac

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Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« Reply #56 on: June 29, 2016, 05:58:07 am »

First rule of politics, everyone is always to blame.
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Ancient Babylonian god of RAEG
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« Last Edit: February 10, 1988, 03:27:23 pm by UR MOM »
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Starver

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Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« Reply #57 on: June 29, 2016, 06:16:00 am »

...Regardless, in the news:
Cameron: Europe wants closest links with the UK. Perhaps he means they want to close links, not closer links?
IRTA 'closet'...
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Neonivek

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Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« Reply #58 on: June 29, 2016, 06:17:25 am »

@LW if you're so confident that Brexit is 'what the people want'...

Wouldn't supporting a second referendum be the more consistent belief here? If they truly do want it, all the result will prove is 'yep, Brexit o'clock'.

It sounds more like you believe it won't pan out the same way. But hey, vox populi, vox dei, isn't it?

A second referendum would be like... say...

You have a patient who has a large spike through his torso that must be removed and you get his permission to yank it out (pretend that this situation you can do so).

So you lightly tug at it and everytime the pain sets in you go "Are you sure you want it out?" until he relents from the pain.

Leaving was going to cause mayhem and craziness. Another vote would just make a lot of leavers change their vote JUST because they are feeling the consequences.

At the same time, one could argue that, THAT is a perfectly legitimate reason to hold another referendum that it gives people a better idea of what was really at stake.
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Radio Controlled

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Re: Brexit! Conversation Continued
« Reply #59 on: June 29, 2016, 06:22:42 am »

Quote
Yeah, sorry, democratic politics isn't a game where you get to quickload over and over until the RNG gives you the outcome you want.
True enough, but it also isn't supposed to be run on a list of lies both blatant and immediately backpedalled on, nor is it really supposed to be run by people so incompetent, nobody has an idea what to do. Not the ruling clowns or the clowns who literally got exactly what they wanted.

Next to that, like I said, it would be very explicit there would not be a revote if it's for leave, and clear guidelines to prevent neverendum.

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Spoiler (click to show/hide)

But again, if you are sure that leave would win again because it is truly what the people want, a revote will confirm it, right? So then the UK could actually leave in a reasonable fashion, lessening the damage the UK will have to endure (uncertainty over what will actually happen is damaging on its own) and going about it with more competent leadership and an actual plan. It would also give the people in charge a chance to make it clear to whatever minority that's currently actively harassing people that, no, a leave vote is not about giving you popular mandate to be racist pricks.

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And in the event of a revote, the rules can be made clear and irrevocable, anyone breaking them gets sued their pants of. I'm assuming that, at least, separation of powers is still a thing and the entire legal body hasn't been compromised?

Small question, when the remain campaign broke the law, did the leave campaign sue them? Honestly don't know. If yes, what came of that, if not, why not?

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Good thing this vote was had, so what other people see as best for the British does not override what the British want.
Sure, if it's what they want, it's what they should get regardless of what others think. But I am allowed to have an opinion on the matter, right? I am expressing why I think it could be a good idea, but apart from that I don't have an influence on what'll happen. It's not like I'm commanding anyone what they have to do, I have zero power here, just why I think they should consider it.

Unless I'm misinterpreting what you're saying here, in which case, care to explain?

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That's not what I have been seeing, in my environment at least. I've seen sympathy for the common Brits, even though I've hardly seen anyone think it was actually a good idea. Then again, echo chambers and all that.

As for the EU 'punishing', I think it's more that they're determined to drive a hard bargain and also try to get the outcome that they see as most beneficial for the countries and people of the EU. And not giving in on fundamental values they say they support, such as no access to the common market without free travel of people and having to abide by EU regulations.

Finally, I think that the EU, flawed as it is, does give tangible benefits above the purely economic partnership it started as. But, y'know, that's just me.

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The last part of your post, I find agreeable, bar the notion of more referendums of course.
Glad to see we found some common ground. But isn't it kinda useless to say that a referendum should be run competently after the previous one was run badly, and a new one being run better and fairer is not on the table?



Another option I've seen would be to call for a new general election. Automatically, leaving or remaining would be the major issue, so that could be another way to see how to go forward with clarity and an actual plan.
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