I don't have better sources than anyone else, but just the thought of a US commercial contract without deadlines, fine clauses, termination clauses, etc. does seem like someone is either dreaming or thinking of military time & materials contracts.
I'm not sure where I saw/heard Toady saying he definitely wanted DF Premium out this year, but it was probably one of the interviews (and I only know about ones linked from this forum, either linked by Toady or someone else).
I'm hoping for #2, but I definitely consider it the least likely alternative, in particular as it's something that can be cut without an immediate visible impact ("just" worse balance at release).
"I've played for years but can't handle stress, so I'm waiting for Premium," is a comment I see about as often as "I want to learn, but I'm waiting for the Steam release," which is to say, both unfortunately very frequently.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but why would there be anything wrong with those comments?
There's nothing wrong in those comments, as they're valid sentiments from players. The thing that's wrong/bad is that there's a very valid cause for them: The stress (in)balance is an issue, and it won't go away by itself, but has to be addressed, either sooner or too late (if the Premium release doesn't address it it's going to hurt DF badly. There's only one chance for a first impression, and patch releases can do provide some limited damage control). The comment was made to counter a comment by someone that the number of complaints about the balance has (or may seem to have) diminished over time.