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[EuchreJack]

Interesting analysis by Lidku.

I would only add that India has always tried to position itself as a Third Party in the East vs. West. So they'll probably transition to playing China and the US against each other as Russia decreases in influence. They also have the UK to fall back on.

[Starver]

Well, the leadership did initiate a significant[1] national commemoration of QE2's death, even against a rumbling "What did the British Empire ever do for us?" attitude, reportedly. Hard to tell with India. Even 'simplified' with the post-Partition situation it's a complicated semi-superpower. One wonders what it would ever have been like if it had never been 'Empired' (British, Mogul, all the others back through antiquity) but remained more like the whole-lotta South-East-Asian territories vying upon various peninsulae and island-groups that have never been totally/permanently subsumed into Chinese, Japanese or all those many empire-striving European nations.

(But, of course, I must stress that "The Empire", did derive many benefits, including often overlooked contributions in WW1 (especially), from Indian manpower. Hard to tell how history would have progressed with no (technically) united India in our experience of the eras concerned.)


...umm, yeah, anyway, yes, I think India is indeed looking to be "the disinterested party", forging its own path. It has its own issues to worry about, in a nation with intense problems for much of its population but also a top-ten position in the world for a space-programme (Lunar landers, interplanetary probes, human spaceflight planned for the not-distant future (training its candidates in Russia!) and other things, though not without stumbling blocks) and famously an aspiring tech-hub which shows its breadth of aspirations on the world stage even if it finds its people (and environment) awkwardly unmanagable much of the time. I think that's a holdover from past "governance from afar", to be fair, which has not always been gloriously perfect.

But of course this means it's just a change of government (or nuance) away from being at the very least subtly more or less supportive of any other government, under their particular brand of democracy/etc.


[1] Yes, Biden also did the flags at half-mast on buildings/vessels thing. Never heard so much about Patriot/Tea-Party objections to that. And amongst their ranks they have those who object if Biden even blinks, who probably also strongly suspect that he actually doesn't ever need to.

[Lidku]

Interesting analysis by Lidku.

I would only add that India has always tried to position itself as a Third Party in the East vs. West. So they'll probably transition to playing China and the US against each other as Russia decreases in influence. They also have the UK to fall back on.

I don't know about India shifting toward China after Russia's coming decline. The right-wing and center-right base of India sees China as an ever-prescient enemy, especially in regard to the 2020 border skirmishes (and lets not forget all the previous 1962 and 1967 wars India and China had against each other). With the political outlook in India shifting more to the right, the relations between India and China will become more gridlocked toward hostility.

What will likely happen, is that India will have no choice but to steer more into the orbit of the West. It's something the various ruling political forces in India won't like, but will be their only remaining option after Russia's rapid dissipation of power and likely subsummation into China's direct sphere of influence after the war is over.

EDIT: Also, to add toward another part of your post I missed: the UK is becoming irrelevant day-by-day. It has basically been somewhat irrelevant for a while, but more-so after the economic slump it brought itself to after leaving the EU, and subsequently, the common EU market. The prices for everything than most places right now, are very high. Especially with regards to energy bill expenditures.

They should have planned for better energy independence before leaving the EU. Now the UK is screwed until they find a working alternative or find some deal to come back into the EU (at least in a semi-official capacity, as a means to get back into the EU common market).

India is VERY unlikely to fall back toward the UK. Especially with India's economy near-eclipsing or outright surpassing the UK multiple times in a quarter at some points.

[Starver]

I know this is increasingly off-thread, but..

Now the UK is screwed until they find a working alternative or find some deal to come back into the EU (at least in a semi-official capacity, as a means to get back into the EU common market).

Maybe we'll join the 'European club'! (Assuming they think they want us... de Gaulish sentiments might apply.) Much of what I think about how this has gone is not worth saying here, though.


Back on-thread, though: ...about those referenda...

[Lidku]

The initiation of these "referendums" is Putin trying to save some face after the recent losses Russia has suffered. It's essentially a measly bone of illusionary "progress" to show to Russian society that, hey, the Special Military Operation is garnering SOME "results". That all the losses we have suffered haven't been for-naught; now we just need some more manpower in the form of "semi-mobilization" to win this and defend Russia!

If these referendums pass (and they likely will, given the fact that the occupying Russian army is largely administrating the voting process) and Ukraine just literally recovers the territory a few weeks after, it'll be DEVASTATING for Putin's already petering prestige he's built up over the years.

Though I'm deathly afraid of the tantrum he might exhibit if the above comes to pass... the nuclear threats Putin and his inner-circle have been proclaiming all throughout the war could quickly become a hasty-impotent-anger-filled reality...

The most moderate worst case scenario I can see, is after the referendums vie in the favor of "joining" Russia, Putin will just outright declare any direct advances into "Russian territory" as a carte blanche to begin a nuclear response. Such a stated directive might make Ukraine and Russia go into a quasi-ceasefire, with only intermittent skirmishes along their respective boundaries-of-control (basically the status quo of pre-February 2022).

While that takes place, Putin would use the opportunity of stymied fighting to use the mobilization to reinforce the newly "voluntarily annexed" regions as defensive measurements only... I just don't find it likely Russia will use forces with even LOWER morale and much LOWER training than the forces they currently have in the field now. Especially with them rapidly losing equipment they cannot reliably resupply. Russia actually using the mobilized troops as offensive forces would be a complete disaster.

[Strongpoint]

The only somewhat reasonable option for Russia to "win" this war is to declare occupied territories annexed, demand Ukrainian army to retreat from the new Russian territory immediately and then, when it will be ignored, nuke Ukraine hoping that the rest of the world won't start WW3 over Ukraine, then proceed to push with mobilized to capture what is left after nuclear strikes. And, living in Ukraine, it sounds quite scary... Well, as a Ukrainian proverb says - you can't die twice.

If this isn't the plan, I see no logic in those "referendums" whatsoever

[Great Order]

Supposedly Putin's fled to a nice little forest resort.

https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-putin-escapes-secret-palace-amid-anti-draft-protests-report-2022-9?r=US&IR=T

I hate to keep drawing parallels to history (no I don't) but now it's looking a bit French Revolution-y. Will we see the guillotine?

[Lidku]

then proceed to push with mobilized to capture what is left after nuclear strikes.

Remember the time Russia occupied Chernobyl? Remember when its soldiers were playing around in the Red Forest, the notoriously highly irradiated forest that came about some years after the disaster? Remember how they were making trenches in the highly irradiated parts in the exclusion zone?

Yeah.. Russia has NO strategic depth or knowledge on how to do military operations with territory that has irradiated terrain/environments.

[Strongpoint]

then proceed to push with mobilized to capture what is left after nuclear strikes.

Remember the time Russia occupied Chernobyl? Remember when its soldiers were playing around in the Red Forest, the notoriously highly irradiated forest that came about some years after the disaster? Remember how they were making trenches in the highly irradiated parts in the exclusion zone?

Yeah.. Russia has NO strategic depth or knowledge on how to do military operations with territory that has irradiated terrain/environments.

Russia has NO strategic depth or knowledge on how to do military operations. Period

It still conducts them. Besides, no one cares, even in Russia, if Russian soldiers will die.

I see no other logical explanation of this referendums circus, other than a thin excuse for using nuclear weapons. Sure, Russia did many illogical steps in this war and it may be one of them.

[Great Order]

then proceed to push with mobilized to capture what is left after nuclear strikes.

Remember the time Russia occupied Chernobyl? Remember when its soldiers were playing around in the Red Forest, the notoriously highly irradiated forest that came about some years after the disaster? Remember how they were making trenches in the highly irradiated parts in the exclusion zone?

Yeah.. Russia has NO strategic depth or knowledge on how to do military operations with territory that has irradiated terrain/environments.

Modern nuclear weapons produce little fallout. The majority is produced by ground detonations chucking up a load of now-radioactive dirt and dust. The issue with this is two-fold: 1) Producing fallout makes the areas you want to conquer way less valuable 2) ground detonations severely reduce the size of the explosion, and thus damage

So we do air bursts now. More damage, fewer long-term problems. Aside from everything else, like lowering the acceptable-use-of-nukes threshold at best and a nice, hour-long WW3 at worst.

[hector13]

then proceed to push with mobilized to capture what is left after nuclear strikes.

Remember the time Russia occupied Chernobyl? Remember when its soldiers were playing around in the Red Forest, the notoriously highly irradiated forest that came about some years after the disaster? Remember how they were making trenches in the highly irradiated parts in the exclusion zone?

Yeah.. Russia has NO strategic depth or knowledge on how to do military operations with territory that has irradiated terrain/environments.

Russia has NO strategic depth or knowledge on how to do military operations. Period

It still conducts them. Besides, no one cares, even in Russia, if Russian soldiers will die.

I see no other logical explanation of this referendums circus, other than a thin excuse for using nuclear weapons. Sure, Russia did many illogical steps in this war and it may be one of them.

Nobody outside of Ukraine gave much of a shit about Crimea being annexed in 2014. Russia is probably hoping the same thing happens here when the referendum shows that citizens totally weren’t forced or intimidated by armed soldiers at their door to vote for annexation. The nuclear threat is presumably to stop Ukraine from trying to take these territories back.

[Starver]

For my part, I did feel the injustice of Crimea. But (at my level of existence) I couldn't do more but watch a whole-lotta-nothing going on from those who might have reacted seriously to the land-grab, and have done this time round.

The equation is significantly different now. Whether the conscience was already pricked by the prior 'liberation' and the inertia for respone has been acheived, or the active 'separatist' actions in Donbas primed the world to actually be paying attention, or just Putin didn't manage to use the prior sneaky subtlety of preparation (c'mon man, massive exercises of Russian troops handily just over the border..?) for the apparent necessity (but still insufficiency) of massive force he had to deploy this time round rather than just sprinkle a few Little Green Men on every street-corner.


The bear has not just plucked choice feathers from the nightingale's rump, this time. It has effectively poked a lot of the rest of the menagerie in the eye at the same time. Time will tell whether/how the fuss will die down, but right now its growling and snarling aren't having the effect of dominating the rest of the zoo like it perhaps may have hoped.

[Lidku]

Starver is right.

The annexation of Crimea by Russia and what's happening now is leagues different. The 2014 acquisition of Crimea was mostly subtle and near-bloodless (heavy emphasis on the "near" part). What's going on now is more severe and the entire world has taken notice to this particular heightened conflict. Putin's gamble in this will fail miserably, just as the entirety of this Special Military Operation so far.

[anewaname]

The Russian "referendums" will effect the political situation in other countries.

Some western "news outlets" will use the referendums as a premise to say "Russia seems to have won this territory" then they will ask questions like:
- "should we demand Ukraine begin peace talks with Russia? [1]
- "should we stop sending weapons so Ukraine cannot attack Russian soil with them?
- "aren't civilians more upset about food/heating costs than about Ukraine?"
These things may not be true, but you know that narrative-promoters and their politicians repeat untrue things. Yes, I do mean these politicians are owned by the promoters-of-narratives...

The current agreements to send weapons to Ukraine, they rely on Ukraine not using them on Russian territory. What happens if some of the countries supporting Ukraine start fighting internally? Or if their civilians lessen their interest in supporting Ukraine due to problems closer to their home?

I don't expect the effort to succeed, but I expect the effort will be made and to have some effect.

[1] There was conspiracy theory, "the Russian/Ukraine peace talks were sabotaged by the radical-left administration so they could use Ukrainian soldiers to fight a proxy war against Russia". It will come back.

[heydude6]

The current agreements to send weapons to Ukraine, they rely on Ukraine not using them on Russian territory.

It didn’t stop us from using them on Crimea. The precedent has already been set that annexed territory is not protected by these agreements.