This things is going to be brilliant, i just need to avoid a direct hit now, no more splash damage givin' me away!
...Direct Hit isn't replacing regular rocket launcher. It's just an alternative; people will use whichever they like better or whichever is better for a given situation.
But for a while EVERYONE who can get ahold of the thing will be using it. Go spies!
Only when they first get it. After most realize they're terrible with it, they'll switch back. And you've also got to factor in the amount of Soldiers using RL to get the achievements that allow you to get the Direct Hit for the actual % of Soldiers using either weapon at update-release.
Wait. Why am I trying to apply mathematics to Soldier? The 2 don't go together very well. Math doesn't go together with TF2 itself very well either, aside from maybe Engy with his SCIENCE!!
[EDIT:] It's hard to imagine the update is coming out tomorrow, with what little info we have of it at this moment (less than half of the new weapons). But it has to, as Valve is advertising the free weekend as including the update.
[EDIT 2:] "Give 'em the boot, right in the fruit" wins the Propaganda Contest.
However, the recession must be a lot worse than we thought, because apparently all of you are unemployed and have nothing better to do than spend real hours drawing incredibly time-consuming art for virtual prizes.