Itīs more complex than that but itīs a good sum-up
My personal analysis
See, all this started around 2008. The Catalonian goverment (then under the Socialist Party) was promised a reform of itīs autonomy status to improve self-goverment... and the overall situation of Catalonian autonomy, really. As it stands they have actually a worse deal than most autonomous communities. It kept getting delayed, and things came to a close around 5-6 years ago, when the Catalonian goverment (under control of the major nationalist party once again) demanded from the (then conservative) central goverment to make good their promises.
Only... as I said, the central goverment was (and is) in hands of the very conservative and very centralist "Popular Party". Who happened to have an absolute majority in parliament at the time. So they basically ignored them. Then tensions started to build up, each side tensed the rope more and more, and eventually we have come to this situation.
Some things to note (IMO):
- Catalonian society is very evenly split about the matter of independence. Votes-wise, non nationalistic parties had a slight edge in the last election, even. (That was before all this mess, of course. Who knows what the current split is)
- The central goverment's tactics actually FOSTER nationalistic sentiment, goes without saying. When they insist on screwing you up you start to look into nationalistic positions in a far more sympathetic light. I know it happens to me, for certain.
- Itīs delliberate. See, this kind of heavy handed approaches sit very well with "Deep Spain", which overlaps very well with the main voting segment of the conservative party.
- However, itīs very likely to backfire this time. The situation is too damn tense at the moment. This wont be good for anyone.
What I think should happen to avoid bad outcomes:
- Everyone should take a step back
- The Central goverment should fulfill the promises made to the Catalonian goverment, with interest
- A referendum (well planned, with guarantees) should be done further down the line, once things are calm again. Personally I think that deep sociopolitical changes should have a threshold higher than 51%, too.
Not that anyone is going to listen to me, anyways. Good thing Iīm living abroad, as this does not bode well.