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[Lord Shonus]

Remember, the fun part is there is no good answer to this. Either we risk WWIII teaching Putin that actions sometimes do have consequences, or he learns that "accidentally blowing up NATO territory" is perfectly okay to do.

Even if this is a Russian missile (there's some indication that it may have been a Ukrainian SAM (which will likely be ignored, defensive missiles causing damage is an entirely different beast from offensive ones), or a Russian missile that got shot down by Ukraine (which reduces the pressure because Russia can't control where it will go after that)), escalating to direct NATO intervention is not required. The strongest response would be a tit-for-tat escalation in the sort of munitions provided, along with strengthening Polish air defenses along the border.

[da_nang]

Sounds like Poland is declaring NATO Article 4, for now.

[Lord Shonus]

This would be the second time Article 4 has been declared in this war. Article 4 is the "have a big meeting to determine what NATO policy is" clause, previously invoked right after the invasion to coordinate aid.

[EuchreJack]

Looks like it's Blank Check time for Poland!

...stupid Russians.

[Il Palazzo]

Even if this is a Russian missile

Yeah. Polish government has been asking for restraint in reporting until more is known. The one thing that is certain is that there was an explosion at an agricultural facility, and two people have died. For all we know at this moment, it could even have been unrelated to the Russian barrage.
And in any case, at worst (for Russia), this would be in the category of the downing of the MH17 flight - not article 5.

[Lord Shonus]

Even if this is a Russian missile

Yeah. Polish government has been asking for restraint in reporting until more is known. The one thing that is certain is that there was an explosion at an agricultural facility, and two people have died. For all we know at this moment, it could even have been unrelated to the Russian barrage.
And in any case, at worst (for Russia), this would be in the category of the downing of the MH17 flight - not article 5.

We know for sure that there was a missile strike - wreckage has been photographed - and there's only two countries throwing missiles around. There's a good chance that the response will be much stronger than MH17 because everybody's sick of Russia's shit, but it will not be war.

[Il Palazzo]

wreckage has been photographed

Give us a link.

[Starver]

wreckage has been photographed

Give us a link.

I'm sure I saw a photo of the (accused) Russian missile wreckage on this page, but it isn't there now (only of the impact crater, which seems corroborative to it being a missile hit).  Still trying to get used to the site (doesn't have a "deny all" on its Cookies page!) after uninstalling their 'improved' App for now being godawfully unusable, so maybe it was somewhere else (front page image when I first looked, since replaced), but only a little hunting might find it, if you can bear the over-interactive nature of the typical commercial website.

(Had a glance at the BBC, news site, but the agency photo is not obviously copied onto there, yet. Still, at least not the same kind of resource-hog/advertising-pusher..)

[hector13]

On this page if you search “s-300” it’ll get to the part where there’s a picture.

You may have to go to page 2 ‘cause it was right at the bottom of page 1 when I just checked.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

That’s the image, basically in a section when three experts think it’s an s-300 missile, so it could have come from either side (it’s a surface-to-air missile that Ukraine uses to shoot down cruise missiles, while Russia apparently uses it for ground strikes) until they figure out more.

[Lord Shonus]

UA Weapons Tracker (a very reliable source) has the photos.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1592629251161075712

They're suggesting that the wreckage is probably a SAM from a S-300 missile system, but Russia has been using those in the secondary land attack role.

[BurnedToast]

UA Weapons Tracker (a very reliable source) has the photos.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1592629251161075712

They're suggesting that the wreckage is probably a SAM from a S-300 missile system, but Russia has been using those in the secondary land attack role.

Note that the S-300 has a max range of ~150km (~93 miles). So *if* it was an S-300 (which is not confirmed) we know it was absolutely not fired from russia or the eastern half of ukraine that russia is occupying. It had to have been fired from western ukraine (west of kyiv) or western belarus.

Meanwhile, the ukrainian city of lviv was hit with russian missiles today and an S-300 fired from that area is well within range to have hit poland. So if it was an S-300, and once again I want to be clear that's absolutely unconfirmed, then it seems quite likely to me it was a ukrainian missile deployed against incoming russian missiles that missed and ended up landing in poland.

[bloop_bleep]

So correct me if I'm wrong, but I've seen that:

Kyiv/Coordinates 50.4501° N, 30.5234°E

Lviv/Coordinates 49.842957 ° N, 24.031111° E

Poland target 50.4501° N 24.031111° E

So... Yeah.

[MaxTheFox]

So correct me if I'm wrong, but I've seen that:

Kyiv/Coordinates 50.4501° N, 30.5234°E

Lviv/Coordinates 49.842957 ° N, 24.031111° E

Poland target 50.4501° N 24.031111° E

So... Yeah.

Bruh.

[Il Palazzo]

So correct me if I'm wrong, but I've seen that:

You're off by about seven kilometres. I.e. that's not the location.

[bloop_bleep]

Kyiv and Lviv are several kilometers wide. I've heard that the specific precise longitudes and latitudes align to airstrips in Kyiv and Lviv.

Ok, Wikipedia precise coordinates for Poland strike: 50°28'28.0"N 23°55'39.0"E

Kyiv airstrip: 50°28'28.0"N 30°23'21.0"E (check Google Earth)

Lviv, possibly not airstrip but rail station of some sort: 49°48'52.0"N 23°55'39.0"E