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[Ganondworf]

Only somewhat relevant, but Dresden wasn't nearly as bad as popular image presents it. It was a bad raid, but far from the worst in Europe, and the Reich quite literally put an extra zero on the published casualty figures for propaganda purposes. Somehow those propaganda figures got cemented into the sources used by perfectly legitimate historians, and became very hard to scrub.

I know a guy who studies the Germanies in the Early Modern era as a profession. He's told me that Dresden's one of the better places to study because the war damaged their archives a lot less than most places.

Thank you. Maybe the word "largely" wasn't the right one, sorry for my English. I actually learned in school what you just told, but I also did have an exceptionally good history teacher, and I'm quite sure most pupils don't.

[jipehog]

Interestingly, Wagner and its head Prigozhin --who have gained a lot of influence over the past month, even raising concerns about risk of private militaries taking over-- are now seemingly sidelined by the Kremlin.  Possibly due changing situation in the field with Kremlin no longer need to relay on them and possibly due to certain comments about the DoD and less than optimistic outlook of Russian offensive prospects.

I can't make heads or tails here, Russia politics seem like Putin's little telenovela where there is always someone to take the blame for any failures especially if they become influential. I am surprised that Girkin --who helped the Kremlin leading its proxy armed formations in Crimea and Donbas back in 2014) is still allowed to speak.

Well it's not that surprising. Wagner group bled itself dry in Bakhmut, and it's a classic ploy by employers of mercenaries to allow the mercenary group to bleed itself powerless before sidelining them. However it may not be the case that Prigozhin is gone though. It could just be Putin deliberately sowing discord between the army, Wagner group and the Kadyvorites so none of them try to replace him, e.g. if Wagner group feels the VDV is taking credit for the sacrifices they've made, there's going to be that inherent animosity and distrust which will stop the two groups from uniting to overthrow Putin.

I am not sure Wagner is bled dry. Reportedly they are using "expendable" ill equipped/trained former criminals for high risk tasks, like probing the defenses to find vulnerabilities or as mules for resupply. According to recent USA estimates Wagner had 50,000 personnel fighting in Ukraine, including 40,000 convicts and 10,000 professional mercenary contractors.

Also clinically speaking, considering reported outcomes of assaulting heavily fortified positions by either side, Wagner might be serving an important role. Also on topic of wagner and harsh realities of war: New Video Shows Wagner Prison Recruit's Alleged Killing by Sledgehammer

Jesus [..]

Theist should understand that the what matter here is faith and determination, not logic.

Also on a tangent of Jesus and universal truth: Russia Will Be One-Third Muslim in 15 Years, Chief Mufti Predicts. Also in the west, USA have the third largest Muslim population (After Russia and France).

[Strongpoint]

I fully expect a religious civil war in Russia at some time. While democracies have some chance to combine several religions in a long-term harmonious society, countries like Russia - no way.

That or Muslim-majority regions will break away, but that will also likely result in a war.

[Dostoevsky]

So the PM of Moldova resigned a few days ago amidst growing unrest and the news that a Russian missile passed through it on the way to Ukraine... and now the president is agreeing with Ukrainian reports and accusing Russia of planning an imminent coup attempt. (Though I'm not sure that really counts as a coup?)

The protests have been going on for a while and have a major inflation component; they're also being led by the major opposition party. So there's a chance it's all just domestic politics, but given RU's current arc (and Gazprom pressure on the country) wouldn't be too surprising a development.

[martinuzz]

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warns that the rate at which ammunition is used up in Ukraine is 'many times higher' than the production rates of countries supporting the Ukraine. He says that Western countries are burning through their stock fast.

He said that the delivery time for heavy grenades, when ordered now, has doubled to two and a half years.
"This shows it is a war of attrition", he said.
Military production facilities have already been asked to increase their production rates, by working more shifts, and through the weekend.
For the medium to long term, NATO allies will put effort in increasing production capacity by building more factories.

According to Stoltenberg, the war in Ukraine is becoming a 'logistics contest'. However, he adds, Ukraine is not the only one having logistical difficulties.
Russia also has much trouble with supply, and the NATO chief suspects that Russia will have a much harder time adapting to the new challenges. Western sanctions limit Russian industry.

EDIT: Tomorrow, the NATO defense ministers will meet to talk about delivering jet fighters to Ukraine

[Dostoevsky]

The US is already increasing its "artillery" production (I use quotation marks because this includes things that people might not think of as artillery, like HIMARs) but at a very slow rate.

This sort of ammunition crisis is a classic war issue (the logistics and scaling up of artillery production over the course of WW1 is a pretty astounding scale), so not surprising to see it emerging again even if the west isn't directly fighting in the war.

[The_Explorer]

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warns that the rate at which ammunition is used up in Ukraine is 'many times higher' than the production rates of countries supporting the Ukraine. He says that Western countries are burning through their stock fast.

He said that the delivery time for heavy grenades, when ordered now, has doubled to two and a half years.
"This shows it is a war of attrition", he said.
Military production facilities have already been asked to increase their production rates, by working more shifts, and through the weekend.
For the medium to long term, NATO allies will put effort in increasing production capacity by building more factories.

According to Stoltenberg, the war in Ukraine is becoming a 'logistics contest'. However, he adds, Ukraine is not the only one having logistical difficulties.
Russia also has much trouble with supply, and the NATO chief suspects that Russia will have a much harder time adapting to the new challenges. Western sanctions limit Russian industry.

EDIT: Tomorrow, the NATO defense ministers will meet to talk about delivering jet fighters to Ukraine

It doesn't help China is sending russia tons of military equipment and parts (from that forbes link a page or two back). I'm hoping the US completely sanctions china like biden said we would, but we'll see. Maybe we rely too much on china to completely 100% sanction them...a huge part of every item in stores is from china still, not everything, but a big part. With china sending russia tons of stuff, it probably win out in china's favor (note I didn't say russia's favor ) in the end. Though I dunno how china's military production is compared to NATO's military production, I get mixed info on that...anyone want to chime in on that?

[Telgin]

I assume this means that NATO countries are mostly running out of second hand stuff to give to Ukraine that they don't produce much more of, right?  I know the US isn't going to give away enough stuff to put itself in jeopardy and I know that many NATO countries have very little military industrial capacity, but it's kind of hard to believe that the US alone, much less all of NATO, wouldn't be better prepared for a protracted conflict.

[Dostoevsky]

The issue with munitions (at least above rifle bullets, but sometimes even then) is that storing enough for any protracted conflict is a massive logistics challenge and at times just a raw volume challenge. Sure you can store a lot, but you can easily burn through an order of magnitude more.

Before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, the U.S. Army’s production of 14,400 unguided shells a month had been sufficient for the American military’s way of war. But the need to supply Kyiv’s armed forces prompted Pentagon leaders to triple production goals in September, and then double them again in January so that they could eventually make 90,000 or more shells a month.

So far the United States has sent more than one million [basic artillery shells] to Ukraine, while other NATO countries and major non-NATO allies of the United States have also contributed shells, largely without disclosing how many.

(Taken from this article)

14,400 is puny for an actual war, but they're not saying how much reserves they have to draw down from.

Edit: For comparison, German artillery shell production started at several hundred thousand per month at the beginning of WW1 and ramped up to over 10 million per month near the end. And subsequent wars have used far more ordinance.

[Lord Shonus]

I assume this means that NATO countries are mostly running out of second hand stuff to give to Ukraine that they don't produce much more of, right?  I know the US isn't going to give away enough stuff to put itself in jeopardy and I know that many NATO countries have very little military industrial capacity, but it's kind of hard to believe that the US alone, much less all of NATO, wouldn't be better prepared for a protracted conflict.

The "US alone" is pretty much the only NATO member that tried for a serious stockpile, and even the US's profligate military budget is not up to the task.. Munitions are expensive and do not last forever. Most of what has been sent to Ukraine is first-line hardware, not castoffs, which has made problems for donor countries. The UK is reportedly all but out of NLAW rockets.

Real war drains stockpiles incredibly fast, and NATO ground forces were never meant to hold the line alone - they were meant to fight with absolute air superiority against a foe steadily being smashed by the world's five strongest air forces. The wonder isn't that Europe's running low, the woder is that they've stretched it this far.

[Telgin]

It's a bit fascinating that Russia has been able to supply so much then.  Of course, they're getting help from China, Iran and apparently North Korea, but it's surprising they've been able to keep up this well in comparison.

I wonder what effects this will have on US doctrine in the coming decades.  I assume it's wasteful to have unnecessarily high production levels of munitions since they won't last forever in storage, but I can't envision this won't lead to people pushing for a higher baseline.

[andrea]

Russia had different stockpiles, for a different kind of war.
While NATO generally assumed to have air superiority and that its ground forces would fight while covered by insane levels of aviation, URSS assumed that NATO would have air superiority and their battle would be on the ground, with enormous stockpiles of artillery and tanks.
Russia inherited most of that huge stockpile, which is very appropriate for the kind of war that is being fought. NATO arsenal however is doctrinally ill suited. UK is out of NLAW because there is basically no way that NLAW would ever be critical to UK security. By the time it is relevant, Uk has fallen. And that is why they had few and sent what little they had.

Basically: NATO has relatively few artillery shells because most of the bombardment is supposed to come by plane, while Russia has a lot of artillery shells because most of the bombardment is supposed to come from artillery. And since this is an artillery war and NATO can't send its air force (and it would take more than a few planes. Both sides have pretty good AA cover, to the point that neither flies much near contested territory)...

[EuchreJack]

Musk exerting control.
Well, when you're getting free tech from an eccentric billionaire, I guess you take what you can get.

https://fortune.com/2023/02/13/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-satellites-world-war-3-ukraine-russia/

...it would help if I included the correct link.   

[Devastator]

Interestingly, Wagner and its head Prigozhin --who have gained a lot of influence over the past month, even raising concerns about risk of private militaries taking over-- are now seemingly sidelined by the Kremlin.  Possibly due changing situation in the field with Kremlin no longer need to relay on them and possibly due to certain comments about the DoD and less than optimistic outlook of Russian offensive prospects.

I can't make heads or tails here, Russia politics seem like Putin's little telenovela where there is always someone to take the blame for any failures especially if they become influential. I am surprised that Girkin --who helped the Kremlin leading its proxy armed formations in Crimea and Donbas back in 2014) is still allowed to speak.

My theory about Girkin is that he's there to be a known asset.  They don't want the ultranationalists picking a leader who isn't someone Kremlin controlled, so it's easier for them to leave him around to suck up any effort that might go into independant action of any kind.

[Devastator]

He can’t even parse sensible arguments so it doesn’t matter. Democratically elected positions derive their power from the people, but the people who elected the person into that power aren’t allowed to remove them from that power, even if it’s done through other democratically elected representatives with the right to do it.

Don’t even get me started on his attempts at trying to squeeze the concept of Divine Right into democracy. It’s just utter shite followed by a shower of shite with a sprinkling of shite.

We know his idea of winning an argument is to get the last word in so just let him think he’s won and he’ll go away.

It won't matter to RD, but you shouldn't forget that Yanukovich signed an agreement that let him remain on as President before fleeing the country anyway.