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[smjjames]

Trump will take the credit for this, but it's honestly one of the few times idgaf that Trump will take credit for something, since it's just such a relief that it's going in this direction.

Like if a huge asteroid almost hit the Earth but just missed, and Trump tweeted how the asteroid saw Trump and steered clear, I'd be lenient on that since I'd be grateful to be alive.

I get the feeling that he'd take credit for the sky being blue if he thought he could get away with it.

Anyways, pomp aside, they seem to be putting some real effort into formally ending the Korean War.

[Pancakes]

When they were crossing the border and  Supreme Leader + MoonMoon decided to step into North Korea was pretty cute tbh, I ship it


SupremeMoon, coming to a theater near you!


                                                           Or MoonLeader

[Loud Whispers]

He had missiles that worked, and could actually nuke the US.

[skepticism]

With the revelation that the testing facility of North Korea literally collapsed on itself, I'm starting to think that it really is out of a position of weakness. The offer to meet came back in March, well after the testing facility collapse, and probably by the time that he realized that there's just no more testing he can do, period. Probably with China making doubly sure that he knew that he could do no more testing that they would tolerate due to the lack of suitable testing facilities that wouldn't risk damage to China should things go wrong.

So it's not really to do with Trump at all, but just a matter of circumstance.

To ignore the Trump factor would be rather silly, the hammer and anvil would not work with either one missing. It is credible that Xi Jinping told Kim to calm it or he'd be visited by the PLA though, the anvil in this case

[Pancakes]

Well, I believe that those aren't missiles, and are in fact just very elaborate piņatas. But my birthday isn't till the end of next month, so they're probably for someone else.

Regardless, these talks are very promising, and no matter the actual reasons for them taking place, we should be happy that they are. I'm interested to see the propositions that both sides have, and whether or not they actually end the war officially.

[Reelya]

To clarify- he believes he has missiles that work, and could nuke the US.

Nah, he didn't believe that, the deal was to get other people to believe it. Remember the point I made that NK always highlighted how far their missiles could go (in theory), but were very short of demonstrations of targeting prowess. e.g. a salesman who's very keen to sell you a used car, turns the engine on and lets you hear it, talks about mpg and comfort features, but steers clear of actually demonstrating that the thing can actually move in a straight line.

[smjjames]

To clarify- he believes he has missiles that work, and could nuke the US.

Nah, he didn't believe that, the deal was to get other people to believe it. Remember the point I made that NK always highlighted how far their missiles could go (in theory), but were very short of demonstrations of targeting prowess. e.g. a salesman who's very keen to sell you a used car, turns the engine on and lets you hear it, talks about mpg and comfort features, but steers clear of actually demonstrating that the thing can actually move in a straight line.

The east coast is pretty dense, you can aim for the general area and still hit a populated area.

NK did go and pull a 'hold my beer' moment last year by claiming that they could aim and hit a 100 mile (or kilometer) ring around the island of Guam and hit water instead of the island itself.

[smjjames]

Kim Jong-Un said that they're closing the test site in May and are inviring international observers to, well, observe, the closing of it and see the test site, AFP's (French press agency) twitter thread on it.

If this is the site that I suspect it is, that is, the one which got used so hard and had a catastrophic collapse (with at least 200 dead) last summer and is no longer safe to use, then this seems almost purely symbolic as they're not closing a site that is still active, just one that they've decided to abandon.

Though, for what it's worth, it seems to have been the primary site for underground testing, which is still a huge hit on it's own.

[Reelya]

To clarify- he believes he has missiles that work, and could nuke the US.

Nah, he didn't believe that, the deal was to get other people to believe it. Remember the point I made that NK always highlighted how far their missiles could go (in theory), but were very short of demonstrations of targeting prowess. e.g. a salesman who's very keen to sell you a used car, turns the engine on and lets you hear it, talks about mpg and comfort features, but steers clear of actually demonstrating that the thing can actually move in a straight line.

The east coast is pretty dense, you can aim for the general area and still hit a populated area.

NK did go and pull a 'hold my beer' moment last year by claiming that they could aim and hit a 100 mile (or kilometer) ring around the island of Guam and hit water instead of the island itself.

USA's East coast? There's no evidential basis for starting to worry about NK hitting the east coast. Given the ability to shoot in any direction, London will be at risk before New York is. And that's where this starts to veer from reality to fantasy. NK wanted you to believe they're an emerging world military power capable of hitting anywhere on Earth (if they could hit New York they could also by definition hit all capital cities in the Northern Hemisphere) but it's plainly not true - they're a tiny nation with a shoestring budget and outdated tech, and failing obsolete infrastructure. It's frankly ridiculous to believe they could develop (in any reasonable time frame) the ability to devastate Paris, London, New York, Moscow, New Dehli, Cairo, Tel Aviv, and Sydney, etc etc etc, which is what the "east coast" claim entails.

EDIT: remember they said that they were going to fire Hwasong-12 rockets at Guam last year, and made claims about the accuracy beforehand, but they didn't follow through with the actual demonstration. So you have their word that the accuracy was as they claim, but then somebody pulled the plug on the physical demonstration. They could have easily aimed at an empty patch of ocean, at the appropriate distance, giving out coordinates beforehand, thus proving their claims to the world. There was no need to actually target Guam, just target some random patch of ocean. It would have proved their words, but they've made no attempts at doing so. e.g. they never make targeting demonstrations, and at least one time they pointed out an actual target beforehand, they failed to carry out the demonstration.

[smjjames]

It would have been suicidal for NK to actually follow through on the demonstration of firing at Guam. Besides, no country that I know of actually straight up publicly says 'I'm gonna target so and so coordinates'. They may notify nearby governments if they have to, but not publicly.

[Reelya]

I was reading some comments on a news article, where people were saying that NK was just tricking everyone, just wait until they invade SK and Japan. Multiple commenters were expressing this same exact sentiment.

So I decided to look up some North Korean Navy information to see how viable them invading Japan actually is. Apparently, the NK ships are so antiquated that ships from the east coast don't have the range to travel to the west coast (and vice versa), even in ideal conditions. Hardly seems likely that they could conduct operations in international waters at all. And that's beforce considering that SK+Japan amounts to about 180 million people and NK only has 25 million people, or any other factors that would weigh against NK.

[smjjames]

Not to mention that Japans own forces would be pretty well trained againt an amphibious assault since the only way to get troops on Japan is via water or air.

Invading SK would also mean instant war with the US and the end of Kim Jong Un's rule, so, I don't think he's that suicidal.

They very well could be playing everybody, but I think Trump and his mercurialness is a much bigger risk as Trump could do something dumb.

[Loud Whispers]

I was reading some comments on a news article, where people were saying that NK was just tricking everyone, just wait until they invade SK and Japan. Multiple commenters were expressing this same exact sentiment.

So I decided to look up some North Korean Navy information to see how viable them invading Japan actually is. Apparently, the NK ships are so antiquated that ships from the east coast don't have the range to travel to the west coast (and vice versa), even in ideal conditions. Hardly seems likely that they could conduct operations in international waters at all. And that's beforce considering that SK+Japan amounts to about 180 million people and NK only has 25 million people, or any other factors that would weigh against NK.

If NK were to take actions against Japan, it'd be unconventional to say the least. Midget submarines delivering infiltrators, flooding the sea with mines, all sorts of generally cheap, nasty and effective asymmetrical measures which'd give Japan headaches at very little cost or risk to their capabilities.

That said, the fact that Kim Jong-Un prefers American troops in South Korea to American troops out of South Korea is pretty telling, cos he'd much rather have American troops stationed in South Korea than have Japan feel threatened, and subsequently have Japan remilitarise in response. It leads to the rather odd situation where North Korea wants America to feel like it is a threat, but wants Japan to feel like it is harmless, because it'd rather not deal with either the wakeful colossus nor the slumbering giant.

[smjjames]

The troops in SK are at SKs request anyway. Kim Jong Un would have to convince SK rather than the US as far as that goes, and they may have reasons other than NK to have US troops there.

[ggamer]

I'm not sure how I feel about this. On the one hand, i'm always grateful when enemies end a cycle of aggression. At the very least, the US and SK might be able to use some of their defense budget spent on keeping NK under constant guard on more worthwhile investments (jesus aren't i optimistic).

On the other hand, that means that Kim Jong-Un's regime gets to keep it's stranglehold on the people of North Korea. Nearly 25 million people, and what we've seen of their lives from those refugees that crossed the DMZ does not paint a pretty picture. Is peace really worth it, if it means you're consigning a huge chunk of people to such a horrible life?

Well, I'll try to stay happy about it anyway.

[Starver]

Apparently, the NK ships are so antiquated that ships from the east coast don't have the range to travel to the west coast (and vice versa), even in ideal conditions.

Spoiler: What if they have secretly retrofitted them? (click to show/hide)