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[Kagus]

-snip-

The thing is, not being at war will presumably mean that the border will loosen up a bit. Not only will families segregated by the split be able to contact each other more frequently, but the propaganda war between north and south will take on an entirely new dimension; one that can't be as easily thrown out as "it's just the enemy, don't listen to it".

The rest of the world has had decades worth of time to try and save those people by knocking out the government, but they haven't. Now it's time to try a different approach.

[Reelya]

Also the "but there are gulags" point doesn't necessarily mean that it's in the best interests of NK citizens to maintain hostilities. USSR had much more extensive gulags, but got rid of them, and nobody had to intervene for that to happen. Closed borders, and an air of hostility and suspicion might actually be increasing the extremism of the police state in NK. e.g. people in NK can get arrested and be sent to re-education camps for watching South Korean movies or listening to South Korean pop music. The current absolutism of the system of thought in NK means that drastic measures must be taken to keep the belief system "pure". Opening up to cultural influences changes the state narrative, since it's no longer necessary to maintain the false reality.

[Shazbot]

http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=123671.5025

Trump recommended for the Nobel Peace Prize by President Moon. The Nixonian "Madman" strategy works once again.

[Kagus]

Wait, Moon Jae-In was the one who nominated Trump? I'd heard that there was talk of people suggesting he get the award, but I thought that was from the usual right-wing pundits.

Goddammit Moon-Moon.

[smjjames]

http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=123671.5025

Trump recommended for the Nobel Peace Prize by President Moon. The Nixonian "Madman" strategy works once again.

I think you meant to link to your post over on AmeriPol.

[Jopax]

My personal headcanon is that they both realized that Trump really is a wild-card idiot manchild he appears to be and sort of shared a look going 'play it cool for now, no point in risking this asshole nuking us both?'

Then someone suggested they could placate him even more if they made it look like it was all his doing too, fucking brilliant!

Cue the war resuming the moment he steps down :V

[smjjames]

I don't think there'd be much incentive for restarting the war, given how unbalanced the forces are and that China doesn't want to get into a fight with the US. They'll definetly show their muscle and require a buffer zone at the China/NK border, but I'm pretty sure they don't want to come to blows with the US if they can't help it.

In other NK related news, apparently Kim Jong Un doesn't care if the Iran deal is scrapped. Don't know if maybe they're resigned to it getting scrapped (I'm sure they're aware of some of the political disputes about it, given how closely they pay attention to us, and how vocal Congress has been over it) or if he really doesn't care about it.

[Shazbot]

My personal headcanon is that they both realized that Trump really is a wild-card idiot manchild he appears to be and sort of shared a look going 'play it cool for now, no point in risking this asshole nuking us both?'

Then someone suggested they could placate him even more if they made it look like it was all his doing too, fucking brilliant!

Cue the war resuming the moment he steps down :V

The contrary theory is that indulging on chocolate cake with Xi Jinping, then casually mentioning he's blasting a Syrian airbase with cruise missiles right over Russia's head, made the Chinese president sufficiently appreciative of Trump's willingness to project force to achieve his policy goals. Following shortly thereafter, China cut off North Korea's primary cash flow, coal exports, and even went so far as to position troops on North Korea's border. Why? Chinese troops on North Korea's border weren't sending a message to Trump, but to Kim. The Olympics proceeded as an opportunity for North and South Korea to float a trial balloon of public good will toward one another while Pence remained laconical. While the press declared North Korea the victors of a charm offensive, Trump made clear to Kim that he was unwilling to play along with North Korean pageantry. With Japan rumbling toward militarization and joining the nuclear powers ( Japan could start assembling thermonuclear bombs like Honda engines any damn time it suited them ) and China at risk of losing their East Asia regional parity with the United States should Japan militarize, Kim was entirely isolated. All Trump had to do was demonstrate a will to move the status quo in his direction, something his predecessor could not manage in eight years.

Or maybe that's just "my personal headcanon". I'm sure it can't be any more fantastical than "he's such a moron everyone lets him win".

[Kagus]

I realize that a great deal of time has passed, but I'm still under the assumption that Japan is less than enthusiastic about joining the list of nuclear military powers. Despite the voiced opinions of certain prominent politicians.

[Maximum Spin]

Apparently, the NK ships are so antiquated that ships from the east coast don't have the range to travel to the west coast (and vice versa), even in ideal conditions.

Spoiler: What if they have secretly retrofitted them? (click to show/hide)

There are not words for how much I like this

[Starver]

There are not words for how much I like this

Then it would be overkill to respond to Kagus, above, that Japan are much more interested in joining starting the list of mecha military powers.

(Giant mecha vs tank-boats, though. I'd have to plump for the mecha if they work, or the tank-boats so long as they half-work better than the mecha. Or else it's just another variation of Redshirts vs Stormtroopers.)

[Loud Whispers]

I'm not sure how I feel about this. On the one hand, i'm always grateful when enemies end a cycle of aggression. At the very least, the US and SK might be able to use some of their defense budget spent on keeping NK under constant guard on more worthwhile investments (jesus aren't i optimistic).

On the other hand, that means that Kim Jong-Un's regime gets to keep it's stranglehold on the people of North Korea. Nearly 25 million people, and what we've seen of their lives from those refugees that crossed the DMZ does not paint a pretty picture. Is peace really worth it, if it means you're consigning a huge chunk of people to such a horrible life?

Well, I'll try to stay happy about it anyway.

To answer your question: Yes. The world does not need more Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan adventures to bring peace and liberty at the point of a bayonet; overwhelming force is not the only tool in America's arsenal, but it is certainly the one least suited to deployment for peace, especially at such a corner of the world which would see war between China and the US begin. If the state of the North Korean people is grim now, the toil that would be inflicted upon them by the demands of war - both allied and enemy, would be immensely magnified. The destruction of the North Korean leadership would be a highly achievable objective, yet likely to be replaced by the next Korean strongman capable of bringing order out of the chaos.

To do nothing, allow the smuggled cellphones and computers bring knowledge to North Koreans over the outside world, allow the regime to wither away or reform of its own accord, it is the path most likely to guarantee both peace and liberty for the whole Korean peninsula. The fate of North Korea is largely in the hands of China; and China has taken its steps to economically reform China, but remains firm to its own tight control over political authority. Thus the most realistic objective unlikely to get North Koreans turned into jelly by North Korean tanks is secure economic liberty, but not political liberty, which is a slightly more tolerable situation

[scourge728]

PTW

[Shazbot]

If North Korea's leadership were toppled I am almost certain it would not be replaced by "the next strongman". East Germany didn't devolve into thirty years of anarchy, it unified with its liberal sister government. We saw glasnost bring down the Soviet Union and I hope to see it repeated in North Korea.

[Reelya]

The Soviet Union isn't a particularly compelling example, given that it lead to a crashed economy, a decade of political turmoil and then the Putin era.

East Germany also didn't topple, the existing administration agreed to unification, so there was political continuity with the old communist regime.