Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Shazbot]

Three hostages for absolutely nothing but airfare and catering is good enough. Trump could wrap this up in a bow and move on, frankly.

This game is going to go on for a while. If Trump up and walks out of the first peace talk he's entirely in character. Imagine he's buying a car with no price tag out of some guy's cracked driveway who can't even afford to pay his electric bill and has a bunch of crying, hungry kids in the house.

Nice car. How much you want for it. Thumbs through a gigantic wad of hundred-dollar bills.

Oh, I don't reaaaally want to sell that. Maybe ten thousand?

Huh. Walking away.

That's an insufferable position to be in if you want to sell the car, where the car here is Kim's nuclear weapon's program. Trump doesn't need Korean denuclearization (really, it was just accepted fact under Obama that this had happened) nearly as much as Kim needs economic sanctions lifted and international normalization. Trump can, in the very least, pretend like he doesn't give a shit. Once Kim is convinced he wants to sell his nuclear program and that he can't hold out for a better deal by doing his own fake-out and saber rattling (what he's trying now) he'll cash out. But he's only going to be able to sell this program once, and can't exactly start up another.

Expect absolutely nothing to be done in the polite diplomatic style and do not discount that Trump knows how to buy and sell, and you can start to understand this apparently erratic behavior. Trump is going to continue with regularly scheduled wargames for the same reason you go across the street to the next car lot while the salesmen are watching you. He's letting Kim know he could just as easily leave the sanctions up and keep North Korea under an effective siege now that he's gotten a wedge between North Korea and China. By the time this stuff is over I'd expect a live-fire test of an anti-ballistic missile system engaging a target with the exact threat profile of a North Korean system, directly proving a defense of Tokyo or Seoul against Kim's best weapons.

Besides, I'm reasonably certain his program is in shambles to begin with, between unreliable warheads and unreliable rockets, and he wants to sell this lemon.

[Sheb]

Well, while you can interpret this that way, you could also just say that it's basically the same business as usual with NK for the last 20+ years. I don't really blame Trump for saying he'd talk, but NK has an history of pretending they're interested in peace deal only to walk out.

Where I severely disagree with you is that I don't think that Kim is interested in "selling" his nuclear program at any price. NK demands for that have been clear for a long time and include stuff like removal of all US troops in SK, which isn't going to happen. But the point you're missing is that nukes have an intrisic value as a deterrent to Best Korea, so they are not going to give them up cheaply. My guess is that the best Trump (or any adminsitration, really) can hope to gain is an halt to testing.

[Kagus]

"So we are back to name calling", says Ms. Bicker.

[Shazbot]

Well, while you can interpret this that way, you could also just say that it's basically the same business as usual with NK for the last 20+ years. I don't really blame Trump for saying he'd talk, but NK has an history of pretending they're interested in peace deal only to walk out.

Where I severely disagree with you is that I don't think that Kim is interested in "selling" his nuclear program at any price. NK demands for that have been clear for a long time and include stuff like removal of all US troops in SK, which isn't going to happen. But the point you're missing is that nukes have an intrisic value as a deterrent to Best Korea, so they are not going to give them up cheaply. My guess is that the best Trump (or any adminsitration, really) can hope to gain is an halt to testing.

I'm not missing that point, but I think you overestimate the value of a nuclear weapon as a deterrent to South Korea. If North Korea can destroy Seoul in a flash of light, fine, but they can already do this in a hellstorm of rockets and artillery. A halt to testing is not what this administration wants. Iran halted testing. It wasn't enough, the deal is off. It will be the same with North Korea.

Trump has sent a letter cancelling the summit.

His Excellency
Kim Jong Un
Chairman of the State Affairs Commission
of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea
Pyongyang

Dear Mr. Chairman:

We greatly appreciate your time, patience, and effort with respect to our recent negotiations and discussions relative to a summit long sought by both parties, which was scheduled to take place on June 12 in Singapore. We were informed that the meeting was requested by North Korea, but that to us is totally irrelevant. I was very much looking forward to being there with you. Sadly, based on the tremendous anger and open hostility displayed in your most recent statement, I feel it is inappropriate, at this time, to have this long-planned meeting. Therefore, please let this letter serve to represent that the Singapore summit, for the good of both parties, but to the detriment of the world, will not take place. You talk about nuclear capabilities, but ours are so massive and powerful that I pray to God they will never have to be used.

I felt a wonderful dialogue was building up between you and me, and ultimately, it is only that dialogue that matters. Some day, I look very much forward to meeting you. In the meantime, I want to thank you for the release of the hostages who are now home with their families. That was a beautiful gesture and was very much appreciated.

If you change your mind having to do with this most important summit, please do not hesitate to call me or write. The world, and North Korea in particular, has lost a great opportunity for lasting peace and great prosperity and wealth. This missed opportunity is a truly sad moment in history.

Sincerely yours,

Donald J. Trump
President of the United States of America

[Trekkin]

By the time this stuff is over I'd expect a live-fire test of an anti-ballistic missile system engaging a target with the exact threat profile of a North Korean system, directly proving a defense of Tokyo or Seoul against Kim's best weapons.

And when the interceptors miss (as they are wont to do more frequently than has been propagandized), Kim triumphantly declares those same weapons unstoppable and a fine replacement for the literally decaying artillery currently threatening Seoul, to which the nuclear program was to provide an effective replacement deterrent in the first place.

I look forward to seeing you contort that into a win for Trump somehow.

[scourge728]

If that letter was real, I am 100% sure trump didn't write that.

[Dorsidwarf]

By the time this stuff is over I'd expect a live-fire test of an anti-ballistic missile system engaging a target with the exact threat profile of a North Korean system, directly proving a defense of Tokyo or Seoul against Kim's best weapons.

And when the interceptors miss (as they are wont to do more frequently than has been propagandized), Kim triumphantly declares those same weapons unstoppable and a fine replacement for the literally decaying artillery currently threatening Seoul, to which the nuclear program was to provide an effective replacement deterrent in the first place.

I look forward to seeing you contort that into a win for Trump somehow.

actually that would be a win of sorts, because as difficult as it is to shoot down missiles, its a lot more difficult to shoot down a barrage of 150mm artillery shells, and NK couldnt hope to maintain nearly as many ready-to-launch nuclear missiles as they can divisions of artillery. Sure it would raise tensions a great deal, but if kim scrapped the "hellstorm of artillery" in favour of missiles it might actually paradoxically reduce the threat to the capital

[Akura]

If that letter was real, I am 100% sure trump didn't write that.

I agree. That letter is a lot longer than 280 characters.

[Kagus]

If that letter was real, I am 100% sure trump didn't write that.

How so? I mean, sure, plenty of message-taking and letter-writing being done by aides and whatnot, but I wouldn't say I was 100% certain he didn't write it.

And it's certainly the letter getting reported as being the one sent to Kim.

[scourge728]

It just doesn't seem anything like how he speaks and tweets, not enough threats, lies and nonsense

[Shazbot]

If that letter was real, I am 100% sure trump didn't write that.

Yes, the letter is 100% real, and since when did Presidents write these things? You hire a speechwriter. Although Trump may very well direct it, or write his formal copy and have his speechwriters tidy up. Ultimately, what difference is there? These are the words he's approve to use. Insulting his intelligence by saying he's a bad writer and couldn't have possibly written this diplomatic letter doesn't make this any less the policy position he's staked out.

http://fortblissbugle.com/2017/10/25/fort-bliss-thaad-battery-reflags-with-35th-ada-in-south-korea/

A proven ABM system, THADD, is already deployed and was a major move in 2017. Each battery six launch vehicles with eight missiles in the tube. North Korea does not have 48 MRBMs, nor more than a half dozen nuclear warheads. Layered into that is Aegis and Patriot. Both of these systems are very good. None of these systems exclude the use of the other, and almost certainly each system can launch multiple interceptors at a single target. So to shoot down a given North Korean nuclear missile there is a lot of flak on hand and I do not see the varying layers being penetrating by a handful of very large targets. I would think Kim's estimation that the ABM systems render his missile threat meaningless is part of his calculus in wanting to get something for his now-useless missile program.

C-RAM systems in the US and Israel can shoot down artillery shells. Because its 2018. Its far (rather far) from perfect, but its better than nothing by far. The hope is counter-battery can smother the guns and launchers before the C-RAM runs out of ammunition.

Kim is unlikely to scrap any of his existing assets, however. North Korea has very large numbers of dumb rocket systems installed on the reverse slopes of mountainsides, using little rail cars and tunnels to push the them in and out of a mountain's worth of cover for reloading. Its a counter-battery nightmare, but C-RAM helps soften it and buy time. However the positions are well known and GPS is a wonderful means of hitting known, static targets. It is a question of time-to-target.

As of right now Trump has walked from the summit but left the door open, leaving with three hostages and a North Korean test facility demolished. In return for nothing. This is unlike the previous administration's bargaining with Iran, which let more and more concessions flow to Iran including the humiliation of American sailors out of a refusal to walk away from the table. This is precisely the right step to take in response to North Korea's bellicose saber rattling.

You have to be willing to walk away to negotiate.

[Starver]

As of right now Trump has walked from the summit but left the door open, leaving with three hostages and a North Korean test facility demolished. In return for nothing. This is unlike the previous administration's bargaining with Iran, which let more and more concessions flow to Iran including the humiliation of American sailors out of a refusal to walk away from the table. This is precisely the right step to take in response to North Korea's bellicose saber rattling.

You have to be willing to walk away to negotiate.

Already responded to this nonsense in the US thread. Applies here too.

[Reelya]

Well NK has been pretty consistent here actually. They agreed to the talks mere hours after the US and South Korea delayed joint military exercises. But then, the USA conducted additional military exercises in SK anyway, and North Korea protested about it, but they didn't cancel the actual meeting over it. e.g. this was a point at which NK could have angrily canceled the meeting, but they didn't. And now, the USA itself basically pulled out over the equivalent of silly Trump tweets from North Korea - one North Korean official said Pence is a dummy basically.

e.g. if you uses some politics-brain, both sides originally said they want to talk, but NK said they'd only do so if US military exercises in South Korea were halted. When the exercises were halted and NK immediately agreed to the talks, the USA was honestly surprised. But after that, NK has kept to their word over the talks, while the USA has done multiple things to try and derail the talks - but in a way that they could blame NK for.

e.g. Trump needed to be seen as the "willing-to-talk" guy and make out Kim as the "non-willing-to-talk" guy. But when the other guy honestly seems like he wants to talk, and you don't, then it becomes difficult to pull out of the meeting in a way you can blame the other guy, so you provoke them by doing the one exact thing they said not to do if you wanted to have the talks go ahead. When that fails, find offense at something silly and tangential. All up, it just looks like Trump was actually committed to either military intervention, or just justifying the continued occupation of South Korea the whole time, and offering "talks" with NK was just the grandstanding part of it that makes out that they're the White Knight in all this.

EDIT: there are also comments from after the canceled talks:
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-japan-skorea-urge-continued-dialogue-after-trump-pulls-out-of-us-nkorea-summit

On Thursday, Mr Trump pulled out of what would have been the first-ever meeting between a serving US President and a North Korean leader - a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un set for June 12 in Singapore. Mr Trump said the meeting was inappropriate given the North's "tremendous anger and open hostility".

In response, Pyongyang struck a conciliatory tone on Friday, with North Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan saying in a dispatch via the official KCNA news agency that Pyongyang was willing to sit down with the US "at any time, in any way, to resolve the problems".

There seems to be a definitely discontinuity here between the Trump administration statements and the reality of the situation. e.g. pushing the "tremendous anger and open hostility" point just seems to be a smokescreen to set that up as a media narrative allowing the USA to unilaterally pull out of talks while blaming the other guy. Meanwhile, you have the other guys responding that they're open to unconditional continuation of the talks, and that's met with literal silence from the US. e.g. it's fairly clearly Trump's side that were looking for an excuse to shut this whole thing down. But, it can't appear to be Trump who pulled out.

[misko27]

This is good for bitcoin DPRK Thread.

[Reelya]

Also, South Korea has made statements that they're willing to continue with improving relations with North Korea, while China has said they're still committed to a peace process. However, Japan has basically said "can't trust those sneaky NK people for a minute".

e.g. Japan is the most against the process of all the regional actors, but they have several strategic reasons why they might not want to see unification on the Korean peninsula. First, they would lose some strategic importance for the USA, second, South Korea would gain access to large amounts of cheap labor, making South Korean industry more competitive. Think: Samsung factories in North Korea for example, giving Korea a big edge. USA and Japan might be viewing this from a geopolitical standpoint, e.g. US military bases in the region heavily benefit both of those nations more than anyone else, and the NK threat provides a cold-war type rationale for why so many of those bases continue to be there. A fractured Korea is good for both the Japanese and American hawk lobby.