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[nenjin]

Going back to 2e Fantasy, I've always felt superior #'s > superior stats. As demonstrated by 60 Goblin shortbows decimating ranks upon ranks of fully armored Chaos Warriors. My experiences in 40k were largely the same. And then you add all the guard heavy weaponry on top of it.

[Grim Portent]

I tend to find numbers in 40k need to be massively huge to be able to overwhelm truly elite units properly. Basically no amount of guardsmen platoon squads can take on a Thunderwolf deathstar or a Houndstar. Once the deathstar hits home in assault the guard will lose the combat, break, run and get chased down.

Similarly there's stuff the horde units in the game can't even hurt, like dreadnoughts and T7 stuff like GUOs and Wraithlords, which can basically stomp all over platoons, cultist hordes, slugga boyz and the like.

EDIT: Hell, currently the two best troops units in the game are Space Marine Bikes and Windrider Jetbikes, both usually costing 20+ ppm and being able to shred most units in the game.

[Kot]

50 Guardsmen conscripts and other related tarpits are the one of few things that counter Smashfucker though.

[Grim Portent]

Only if you give them something to make them Fearless or Stubborn. Without it they're bolting on the first round of combat and getting run down.

[Kot]

Ministorum Priests.

[Grim Portent]

Ministorum Priests.

Get crushed by whirlwind fire, or Scouts with snipers rifles, or Thunderfire Cannons, or anything that can either pick them out or vaporize their T3 5+ save mook unit, which is almost everything in the game. There's a reason guard don't do well in tournaments.

The thing that really seems to have killed Smashfucker is the fact that White Scars are just so much better than every other marine flavor, and marines in general are already pretty good. Skilled Rider and Scout on an army of bikes with grav-guns is rather insane and is also insane on a horde of free Razorbacks from the Gladius, to the point that even things like army wide FnP 6+ and regenerating Land Raiders, or rerolling 1s to hit with the basic gun used by every unit in your army don't match up. Spending points on getting Smashfucker is points not being spent on White Scars, which are just better.

[Loud Whispers]

In tabletop it takes roughly 9 guardsmen to kill a marine with one round of shooting at rapid fire range, though that number is theoretically higher since the marine is likely to have gotten a chance to shoot at least once before hitting that range and is far more likely to kill a guardsman with any given shot. In close combat things get slanted even more in the marine's favor.

In terms of points a marine is a little over 3 guardsmen in points cost, which is quite efficient from the marines perspective for what you're getting, but you have less heavy/special weapons in the same slot and less overall wounds.

First rank fire, second rank fire, 12" range, 3 shots per guardsmen hitting 50% of the time. A third of those hits will be severe enough to trigger an armour save (assuming of course, the space marine is not in a bunker and so would not get a 2+ cover save). Two thirds of those saves will be made. Thus at optimal fire discipline with only lasguns and "standard" Imperial Guardsmen, in daylight conditions with no smoke popped, it takes 1.5 pgto hit, 0.5pg to wound, 0.16 recurring to kill. Thus at the best possible condition with an alive officer capable of giving commands (and succeeding), it takes 6 guardsmen to have a probability of 1 to take down 1 standard space marine in optimal conditions.
A standard space marine rapid firing their boltgun gets off 2 shots per space marine, hitting 66% of the time. Boltguns wound guardsmen 66% of the time, and punch through flak armour giving no armour save. In the same optimal firing conditions, a space marine will kill 1.13 guardsmen every round of shooting. In battlefield conditions guardsmen usually almost always are in cover, or at least get cover saves from using other guardsmen units as cover, but the space marines have an obvious advantage in that they never need cover vs lasguns whilst the guardsmen do vs bolters, greatly reducing the mobility of guardsmen vs space marines.

In close combat (assuming the space marines are on the charge, the much more likely scenario as shooty guardsmen firing line is better than charging guardsmen), the guardsman has 50% chance to hit the space marine and 1/3 of a chance to wound them, with armour saves reducing that chance to kill by another 1/3. The space marine on the charge with 2 attacks has 2/3 of a chance to hit the guardsman, 2/3 to wound them, but their flak armour (and helmets!) reduces the odds of death by 1/3.
Thus in the first round of the charge it takes 18 guardsmen to kill 1 space marine with a probability of 1, whilst the space marine is killing 1.68 guardsmen in the charge. Given the obvious discrepancy in casualties this would produce, it would stand a good chance of forcing the guardsman to retreat, and if they fail to escape combat, have the squad entirely destroyed in the space marine's sweeping advance.

So at optimal range and command, 6 guardsmen are worth 1 space marine, and 1 space marine is worth 1.13 guardsmen.
If the space marines charge then 18 guardsmen are worth 1 space marine, and 1 space marine is worth 1.68 guardsmen (not including the possibility of completely wiping out the guardsmen in a sweeping advance).
Those are just regular tactical squad marines without close combat weapons. Space marines like close combat because a lasgun is at the end of the day deadlier than a bayonet

Also I must add, there is an immense joy in rolling 150 dice with a maxed out conscript squad versus space marines. The dice never end.

Basically at the end of the day if the guardsmen want to win, they have to stack the deck in their favour at every opportunity. Autocannon teams guarded from assault squads by the Imperium's finest guardsmen, entrenched in cover flanked by veteran squads equipped with grenades, and leman russ battle cannons firing non-stop, basilisks dropping pie templates like it's hot. If worse comes to worse: Deploy ogryns

*EDIT
That's using the Imperial Guard, which for a "baseline" standard infantry are fluffwise, the best equipped and most disciplined human fighting force that doesn't wear power or carapace armour. A Planetary Defence Force equipped with autoguns or shotguns instead of the Imperial Guard and their lasguns is fucked at range and fucked in close quarters combat vs a space marine

[Grim Portent]

I excluded Orders from my consideration because that stops it from being a straight comparison of infantry squad versus tactical squad. If you add in Command Squads for the guard you have to start considering the impact of stuff like Chaplains or Librarians, which serve a similar buffing role for marines.

[Loud Whispers]

I excluded Orders from my consideration because that stops it from being a straight comparison of infantry squad versus tactical squad. If you add in Command Squads for the guard you have to start considering the impact of stuff like Chaplains or Librarians, which serve a similar buffing role for marines.

I dunno, space marine tactical squads can operate effectively without Chaplains or Librarians, Imperial Guard squads that lose their officers are greatly diminished in capability and probably going to die soon / break squad and panic until the commissar arrives
So it's basically running under the assumption that there is a command squad sitting in a baneblade with vox casters giving orders, but not actually participating in the guard/space marine skirmish

[nenjin]

True but not entirely so. Death Squad gets real derpy without a Chaplain.

[Dorsidwarf]

Also,  guardsmen will always have orders available, they literally cannot take their basic infantry without also taking the orders command squad. It's not an optional extra like Priests, Chaplains, Apothecaries or Commisars.

[Egan_BW]

Which just means that spess marhrheens can go and chop up the command squad.

[spazyak]

Which just means that spess marhrheens can go and chop up the command squad.

That's why you get conscripts and a commisar

[nenjin]

"Men and women of the Imperial Guard, we will bury the enemy in our dead!"

-Illustrious Lord General Zaff Brammigan

[pisskop]

Zaff Brammigan

no kitten?