Bay 12 Games Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  
Pages: 1 ... 130 131 [132] 133 134 ... 459

Author Topic: Untamed Virus Containment Thread:COVID-19: Lurking Omni-Flu Edition  (Read 421415 times)

MetalSlimeHunt

  • Bay Watcher
  • Gerrymander Commander
    • View Profile
Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #1965 on: April 01, 2020, 11:43:53 am »

I mean, if CFR stays at 1% and the whole population gets infected, that's 3.2 million dead...
Logged
Quote from: Thomas Paine
To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.
Quote
No Gods, No Masters.

McTraveller

  • Bay Watcher
  • This text isn't very personal.
    • View Profile
Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #1966 on: April 01, 2020, 12:15:53 pm »

Seems worse than that  - based on the per-age mortality ranges from here, based on 2018 US demographics if 100% of the country gets it, we'd end up with 6M deaths.  :o

The US has like 35% of its population over 50 years old, which are all more than 1% CFR, which heavily skews the numbers.  Heck I didn't realize it but 22% of our population is 60 or older... a whole 5M of those 6M are from the 60-and-older cohort.

I feel like some statistics somewhere are very off, one way or the other.
Logged

Il Palazzo

  • Bay Watcher
  • And lo, the Dude did abide. And it was good.
    • View Profile
Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #1967 on: April 01, 2020, 12:33:07 pm »

I mean, if CFR stays at 1% and the whole population gets infected, that's 3.2 million dead...
First of all, that's CFR you're talking about. It's skewed towards serious cases. If you wanted to talk about fatality ratio in all infected people, and not just in those who have been tested positive, then the ratio to look at is IFR. That's going to be a good few times lower than CFR.
Second, as herd immunity kicks in, the spread is halted, so 100% infected population is implausible. In various places one can see predictions of 30-60% population getting the virus, barring vaccination (still way off) or containment (we're past that point now, but social distancing helps drive the R0 down).
Logged

Iduno

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #1968 on: April 01, 2020, 12:58:10 pm »

Well, Elon Musk at least is distributing 1200+ ventilors, with Tesla possibly starting to produce them too partnering with Medtronic. (not sure about the price of the produced ones, if they manage to)

As it turns out, Elon Musk doesn't know what a ventilator is, and donated CPAP machines for people with sleep apnea.
Logged

dragdeler

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #1969 on: April 01, 2020, 01:26:39 pm »

-
« Last Edit: November 21, 2020, 10:22:08 am by dragdeler »
Logged
let

ChairmanPoo

  • Bay Watcher
  • Send in the clowns
    • View Profile
Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #1970 on: April 01, 2020, 01:26:45 pm »

Well, Elon Musk at least is distributing 1200+ ventilors, with Tesla possibly starting to produce them too partnering with Medtronic. (not sure about the price of the produced ones, if they manage to)

As it turns out, Elon Musk doesn't know what a ventilator is, and donated CPAP machines for people with sleep apnea.
I think they're BiPAPs. Which can double as noninvasive mechanical ventilators. Many companies are doing this. I think Dyson's ventilators are the same.

Its better than nothing and, unlike ventilators proper, its easier and faster to train nonICU personnel in their use. Probably wont cut it for many of the more severe cases though

So, not great but it's better than nothing..
Logged
There's two kinds of performance reviews: the one you make they don't read, the one they make whilst they sharpen their daggers
Everyone sucks at everything. Until they don't. Not sucking is a product of time invested.

McTraveller

  • Bay Watcher
  • This text isn't very personal.
    • View Profile
Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #1971 on: April 01, 2020, 01:33:47 pm »

Dumb/naive question - why can't we repurpose hyperbaric chambers?  If the people's diaphragms are still working, wouldn't this help just by increasing the O2 pressure to get more into their blood?

Wouldn't this be way less invasive than ventilators?

I mean, if we're looking for every little bit of help we can...
Logged

MetalSlimeHunt

  • Bay Watcher
  • Gerrymander Commander
    • View Profile
Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #1972 on: April 01, 2020, 01:36:34 pm »

Citations from Dr. Goo Gal suggest that hyperbaric chambers are used to assist patients with lung disease, but generally have to be used in conjunction with a mechanical ventilator. So you can improve the effect, but it's probably not a legitimate replacement.
Logged
Quote from: Thomas Paine
To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.
Quote
No Gods, No Masters.

Iduno

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #1973 on: April 01, 2020, 02:17:27 pm »

2+ coworkers have confirmed Corvid now.

Quarantine on a ship at sea is impossible, flat out. If the indulgent cabins of the cruise liners couldn't do it, then sailors stacked like firewood are getting infected for sure.

You can't keep them away from each other, but you can keep them away from the general populace. As long as the plague ship doesn't dock, it shouldn't be a problem.


Again: I obviously didn't mean the US

Civilized countries only. We see how you are. Reasonable. Reasonable is how you are.


I wonder if we'll hit a million recorded cases in the US alone.

No, that requires testing, and acknowledging the problem. They've started limited testing after making sure it was too late to do anything (and after they got their money out of the stock market), but they've shown enough unwillingness to care about the lives and health of citizens that I'd expect them to lie about their numbers just to look good.


Dumb/naive question - why can't we repurpose hyperbaric chambers?  If the people's diaphragms are still working, wouldn't this help just by increasing the O2 pressure to get more into their blood?

If (part of) the issue is fluid in the lungs, changing the pressure would just allow more fluid in. I'm not 100% how they work, so it could be worth looking into, but that's a problem they may wish to consider.

Also, they're pretty big, and probably not plentiful.
Logged

martinuzz

  • Bay Watcher
  • High dwarf
    • View Profile
Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #1974 on: April 01, 2020, 02:41:29 pm »

While our courts have closed down for nearly all criminal cases for as long as the corona crisis is ongoing, one type of offender keeps them busy every day:
People who purposedly cough or spit police in the face, or threaten to do so while claiming they have corona.
Special quick sentencing is used for those people.  Sadly they tend to only get a few weeks in prison, or a fine.
Meanwhile, some police officers have developed PTSD from being spat in the face and worrying they were infected.

What is wrong with some people?
Logged
Friendly and polite reminder for optimists: Hope is a finite resource

We can ­disagree and still love each other, ­unless your disagreement is rooted in my oppression and denial of my humanity and right to exist - James Baldwin

http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=73719.msg1830479#msg1830479

Iduno

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #1975 on: April 01, 2020, 02:53:13 pm »

While our courts have closed down for nearly all criminal cases for as long as the corona crisis is ongoing, one type of offender keeps them busy every day:
People who purposedly cough or spit police in the face, or threaten to do so while claiming they have corona.
Special quick sentencing is used for those people.  Sadly they tend to only get a few weeks in prison, or a fine.
Meanwhile, some police officers have developed PTSD from being spat in the face and worrying they were infected.

What is wrong with some people?

Probably upset that the law applies differently to the police (as in your example). I've known people who were raped, robbed, murdered, and many who were beaten all by the police, and they have no recourse because the police are special.
Logged

ChairmanPoo

  • Bay Watcher
  • Send in the clowns
    • View Profile
Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #1976 on: April 01, 2020, 02:57:10 pm »

While our courts have closed down for nearly all criminal cases for as long as the corona crisis is ongoing, one type of offender keeps them busy every day:
People who purposedly cough or spit police in the face, or threaten to do so while claiming they have corona.
Special quick sentencing is used for those people.  Sadly they tend to only get a few weeks in prison, or a fine.
Meanwhile, some police officers have developed PTSD from being spat in the face and worrying they were infected.

What is wrong with some people?

Probably upset that the law applies differently to the police (as in your example). I've known people who were raped, robbed, murdered, and many who were beaten all by the police, and they have no recourse because the police are special.
More likely they are marginal elements who are doing what marginal elements do. Lumpen  acts as lumpen does.
In my home city some people were robbing shops by threatening cashiers to cough on them. Also spat on cops. 🤷🏻‍♂️
Logged
There's two kinds of performance reviews: the one you make they don't read, the one they make whilst they sharpen their daggers
Everyone sucks at everything. Until they don't. Not sucking is a product of time invested.

Iduno

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #1977 on: April 01, 2020, 03:02:37 pm »

EDIT:  In India, the corona virus isn't the only problem anymore.  Famine is striking the poor.  Millions of day laborers haven't had food for two weeks because they no longer get their daily income.

They sound as bad as the US, which has also been starving the poor because they haven't been paid in over a month.
Logged

martinuzz

  • Bay Watcher
  • High dwarf
    • View Profile
Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #1978 on: April 01, 2020, 03:08:01 pm »

Probably upset that the law applies differently to the police (as in your example). I've known people who were raped, robbed, murdered, and many who were beaten all by the police, and they have no recourse because the police are special.
I am sorry to hear that you live in such a depraved corrupt country where police get away with that.
Dutch police are nowhere near like that, and they have no special status other than having to be able to do their job safely.

Logged
Friendly and polite reminder for optimists: Hope is a finite resource

We can ­disagree and still love each other, ­unless your disagreement is rooted in my oppression and denial of my humanity and right to exist - James Baldwin

http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=73719.msg1830479#msg1830479

sluissa

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19: Super Stay Home Edition
« Reply #1979 on: April 01, 2020, 08:09:56 pm »

Originally from Bloomberg, who doesn't have the best record with anonymous tips or whistleblowers, so take it as it is, but not surprising at all and very much in line with what people were expecting to be going on. (Although there's an argument that makes it even more suspect, but hey, it's news.)

https://news.yahoo.com/china-concealed-extent-virus-outbreak-151550123.html
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 130 131 [132] 133 134 ... 459