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[Eric Blank]

I think everybody's really worried about their missiles, tbh. We don't have anti missile systems covering every corner of the globe.

And their nuclear submarines, if they have any

[Telgin]

Last I heard ICBMs were still very difficult to intercept, especially after their initial boost phase.  It only takes one getting through to cause an absolute catastrophe, and do we even have any significant missile defenses against ICBMs outside of the continental US?

[Eric Blank]

Not unless that starwars program put any lasers in orbit. Weve got the jeep-based lasers and the big plane-based lasers supposedly, but like you said they'd have to be close enough to the launch sites to shoot down the missiles before they leave range. That means sending them into Russia before Putin launches the missiles. With escorts of course.

[Lord Shonus]

Anti-missile systems have a fundamental flaw - ICBMs are much cheaper than the missiles you would use to shoot them down even before you factor in that you need multiple interceptors for each inbound missile. Maintaining a force to defend against a small power like North Korea or a hypothetical decapitation strike (a small strike launched in the hope that the missiles will impact and kill the leadership before the order to retaliate is given) is doable, but even the treaty-limited Russian arsenal is far too big to defend against.

[martinuzz]

Worth noting also that Russia has been applying MRV tech to some of it's ICMBs to overwhelm anti-missile defenses.

[Starver]

And no doubt they have FOBS capacity, too.

[Lord Shonus]

Worth noting also that Russia has been applying MRV tech to some of it's ICMBs to overwhelm anti-missile defenses.

This is literally why MIRV was invented. The Soviets had a very strong nuclear-tipped anti-ballistic-missile system set up to defend Moscow (it's still there). Putting multiple warheads (and lots of penaids) on the Minuteman was the US's way around that. Naturally the Soviets copied the system fairly quickly, and had their own MIRV missiles within ten years.

[Madman198237]

Not unless that starwars program put any lasers in orbit. Weve got the jeep-based lasers and the big plane-based lasers supposedly, but like you said they'd have to be close enough to the launch sites to shoot down the missiles before they leave range. That means sending them into Russia before Putin launches the missiles. With escorts of course.

There are no laser weapons in space that we know of right now, and more importantly no laser weapon deployed on earth can actually shoot down an ICBM after the boost phase. The heating caused by a laser weapon is a quaint and adorable quantity next to the blast furnace an ICBM warhead endures during atmospheric reentry. It's doubtful that a modern laser weapon could down an ICBM in the boost phase, either, because ICBMs don't stick around long after the button is pressed---they're solid-fuel rockets that accelerate at approximately "a lot" of g's and might well be out of a laser's range long before it could meaningfully compromise the booster.

A solid portion of US intercept capability is based on midcourse intercepts from places like Alaska and Hawaii, which hit weapons after they're done boosting but before the MIRVs actually deploy. Given the state of the Russian military it might be sufficient...but probably isn't. Better that we not test it for real.

[Egan_BW]

late-ass PTW

[EuchreJack]

Yes, Russia has Nukes. And they've had them for over 70 years. 

Anyone remember this?

late-ass PTW

LOL

[lemon10]

Given the state of the Russian military it might be sufficient...but probably isn't. Better that we not test it for real.

I would be extremely suprised if either A) All of the nukes worked (because lol Russian military upkeep), or B) None of the nukes worked (because Putin's ego).

If putin pressed the button and only like 50 (of of 1600 nukes that are armed and active) nukes came shooting out of their silo I would go "Yup, sounds about right" and not be suprised at all.


The thing is that even if we intercept 90% of those 50 nukes and 5 get through the night would still end with putin killing 50 million people + however many russians die in the counterattack.
Obviously even those super low numbers are way too many deaths to be acceptable, so...

[Robsoie]

One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them, One Ring to bring them all and in the darkness bind them

https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-gold-ring-gifts-russian-leaders-sparks-lord-rings-jokes-comparisons-social-media-1769785

[Lord Shonus]

Given the state of the Russian military it might be sufficient...but probably isn't. Better that we not test it for real.

I would be extremely suprised if either A) All of the nukes worked (because lol Russian military upkeep), or B) None of the nukes worked (because Putin's ego).

If putin pressed the button and only like 50 (of of 1600 nukes that are armed and active) nukes came shooting out of their silo I would go "Yup, sounds about right" and not be suprised at all.


The thing is that even if we intercept 90% of those 50 nukes and 5 get through the night would still end with putin killing 50 million people + however many russians die in the counterattack.
Obviously even those super low numbers are way too many deaths to be acceptable, so...

A high failure rate of the warheads is much more likely than failure of the rocket motors. Their strategic missiles sleep in far better condition than their tactical ones, and we've seen that the tactical birds will fly.

Which only underscores your point - a Russian launch at the West would be near certain to get any working warheads through, and there would be enough in any launch to provoke a full SIOP response. Dud warheads might cut some of the damage done to the West ( though even 10% of 4000 warheads is a horrific number!) but Russia would be absolutely obliterated. Fortunately, there's every reason to think that the balance of terror remains intactz and no launches will happen.

[bloop_bleep]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zzbzsn/final_message_to_russians_from_defense_minister/

Important words. In particular it concerns me that they say the border is going to close in January. Is this confirmed independently?

Our forumites who have stayed in Russia might want to look again at leaving. Even if they were previously named ineligible for the draft, the authorities do not have much care for following the rules, even their own...

EDIT:

Nice article by the Jerusalem Post.

I think it's good we are removing any fragment of a justification for associating the Ukrainian military with Nazism.

[Starver]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/zzbzsn/final_message_to_russians_from_defense_minister/

...stupid reddit. Not content to pester me to use their App (quite agressively) under normal circumstances, it gives me the sole choice of seeing this 18+ content (why? graphic violence?) in its App or going "home". I imagine that I'm as capable of lying about my age (should I need to, which I don't) to the App as with the website, so that's something else on top of the "oooh, you're on a mobile device... You must try our App, because there' no way your browser on that tablet can give you the same experience as a browser on a desktop" attitude.


TL;DR; ...what's that link say, then? Besides the general idea of borders closing (for which I'm also concerned for the affected forumites, even though I don't know exactly how much I should be).