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Author Topic: Untamed Virus Containment Thread:COVID-19: Lurking Omni-Flu Edition  (Read 421426 times)

martinuzz

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19:One year of this terror Edition
« Reply #5145 on: February 04, 2021, 08:17:29 am »

It's.... not optimal to have the children miss out on a year of school.

But hey... They did miss that during WW2 too, and proceeded to become the most succesful generation ever.

Personally I find getting corona under control, as it is right now, more important than the missed classes and employers that whine about their workers not being able to work at full productivity because they are covered in children (I mean the latter is the real reason that our government decided to re-open the schools, while being advised against it by the medical advisors).

Our schools and daycare centers never fully closed to be fair.  They did *close*, but with exceptions for children of parents that work in essential places, like healthcare workers, garbage collectors, cleaners, power plant workers, train ticket controllers, opticians, supermarkets, etc. etc., plus an exception for children that are deemed 'extra vulnerable' by their schools.
For some schools this means they are completely closed, no children in the class.  For some schools that means 90% of their pupils still come to school. The rest hovers somewhere in between.


EDIT: in other news, serological research in India shows that about 21.5% of the Indian population has been infected with corona. That's 290 million people.  The official number of infected according to the Indian government is 10,8 million.

The research was conducted with a group of 36000 persons above age 10.
Another study shows that children are even more likely to have been infected with corona: of all children up to age 17, more than 25% have anti-bodies in their blood.

Although the number of 290 million sounds extremely high compared to the official government numbers, there are other studies that show even higher percentages.

For example, Thyrocare Technologies says they tested 700000, and found that 55% of the Indian population has already at some point been infected.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2021, 09:33:37 am by martinuzz »
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Cthulhu

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19:One year of this terror Edition
« Reply #5146 on: February 04, 2021, 01:00:39 pm »

Yeah I'm not suggesting that COVID doesn't have long-term consequences, or that everyone having long-term problems is malingering, but studies like that are basically designed to create false positives (it's the same kind of studies behind every food in the world giving you cancer, etc.) and at best say nothing at all.  Notably only a quarter of the subjects actually had a confirmed covid diagnosis.  Not to say the other 73% didn't have covid, but you gotta have higher standards if you want the study to actually say anything substantive.

I would like to see something more rigorous exploring what kinds of long-term effects it has.
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Bumber

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19:One year of this terror Edition
« Reply #5147 on: February 04, 2021, 05:39:16 pm »

It's.... not optimal to have the children miss out on a year of school.

But hey... They did miss that during WW2 too, and proceeded to become the most succesful generation ever.

They also had in-person social interaction, though. That's very important at a young age.
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martinuzz

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19:One year of this terror Edition
« Reply #5148 on: February 05, 2021, 07:11:37 am »

The 21.5% in India is quite likely to be more accurate than the government's estimate of 7%.
A studies into blood donors show that in Belgium, 20% of the population has corona anti-bodies, so 21.5% isn't some far fetched extreme high number.

It could mean however that global estimates are on the low side. Over here, the government guesses that about 10% of the population has had corona at some point.

If 20% is the global norm, we will need to cut mortality / hospitalization rates in half (and adjust infection rates upwards)
« Last Edit: February 05, 2021, 07:15:03 am by martinuzz »
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19:One year of this terror Edition
« Reply #5149 on: February 05, 2021, 07:49:05 am »

Blood donor studies have tended to overestimate seroprevalence since the beginning of the pandemic. I'm skeptical.
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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19:One year of this terror Edition
« Reply #5150 on: February 05, 2021, 08:22:55 am »

Relevent or otherwise, I haven't donated blood myself for the duration. I was about due to receive my usual SMS reminder, to book to donate, when things *clanged* down, and it never came. And I decided to take my cue from them when they were needing stock again, with many blood use needs being depressed, and the 'theraputic plasma' from those who had had Covid - which I was not knowingly a candidate for. (Or even suspecting.)

So, they haven't serotested me. No tests done on me at all. I'm possibly (conceivably) an undetected past-carrier but I may well be (for more likely) an unconfirmed non-carrierm. And I don't know if they statistically account for those such as I.
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martinuzz

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19:One year of this terror Edition
« Reply #5151 on: February 06, 2021, 06:11:43 am »

The UK government has announced that they will reopen the pubs after Easter... But they won't serve alcohol.


Geesh. That's like opening a church, but not serving religion.
Or opening a school, but not offering education.
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We can ­disagree and still love each other, ­unless your disagreement is rooted in my oppression and denial of my humanity and right to exist - James Baldwin

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martinuzz

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19:One year of this terror Edition
« Reply #5153 on: February 06, 2021, 06:32:26 am »

 :D

Nice old song
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Friendly and polite reminder for optimists: Hope is a finite resource

We can ­disagree and still love each other, ­unless your disagreement is rooted in my oppression and denial of my humanity and right to exist - James Baldwin

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Loud Whispers

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19:One year of this terror Edition
« Reply #5154 on: February 06, 2021, 06:46:29 am »

How are they gonna police the pubs to make sure they're not boozing?

martinuzz

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19:One year of this terror Edition
« Reply #5155 on: February 06, 2021, 07:00:38 am »

Boris will recruit the Taliban sharia police
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Friendly and polite reminder for optimists: Hope is a finite resource

We can ­disagree and still love each other, ­unless your disagreement is rooted in my oppression and denial of my humanity and right to exist - James Baldwin

http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=73719.msg1830479#msg1830479

Loud Whispers

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19:One year of this terror Edition
« Reply #5156 on: February 06, 2021, 07:07:57 am »

Boris will recruit the Taliban sharia police
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Rolan7

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19:One year of this terror Edition
« Reply #5157 on: February 06, 2021, 11:56:35 am »

The UK government has announced that they will reopen the pubs after Easter... But they won't serve alcohol.


Geesh. That's like opening a church, but not serving religion.
Or opening a school, but not offering education.
I... guess I can see that?  Local music, tasty unhealth food, and social contact but without the impaired judgement from alcohol?  It still seems a little ridiculous but also really tempting, in the same way I keep fighting an urge to just go to the mall and soak in the presence of other people.

which is both a healthy urge but also still a bad idea at this time

I guess tensions are so high that the government has to allow some measure of dangerous congregation.
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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19:One year of this terror Edition
« Reply #5158 on: February 06, 2021, 11:59:20 am »

1. Buy booze at liquor store
2. Get shitfaced
3. Head to pub
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King Zultan

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Re: Untamed Virus Containment Thread: COVID-19:One year of this terror Edition
« Reply #5159 on: February 07, 2021, 02:23:18 am »

What the hell's the point of a pub if there isn't any booze?
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