Ukrainian government says they believe that Russia will start a new offensive february 24th, with half a million reservists.
It's very much Russia's "time to do things" (many overlapping anniversaries, often because later events were themselves scheduled to be 'anniversary specials', and so making the Birthday Paradox far less surprising).
Also, they've now got to get in there before various new tanks get to the frontline, to try to change the ground (or even crush Ukraine entirely out of the game) before they get the chance to shift the balance, thanks to the rather public-facing international discussions that everyone is aware of. Though I suspect the less "tanky" support that has already been sent will already be in place, and useful for it. Hopefully the Russian commanders will feel rushed and have too much of an eye on the right hand apparently still trying to plant the rabbit in the hat, whilst the left hand has already successfully palmed the joker for a completely different magic trick...
(There's reports that Russian tactics have been getting smarter, evolving to be more clever, but pushing so many reservists in might not be conducive with smarter military thinking, except as pure distraction technique.)
I assume you mean strategy, referring to the host of essentially political decisions that made little military sense when Russia still believed that they can snatches victory from the jaws of
defeat faint/repositioning/whatever, which put them at huge disadvantage.
I doubt that anyone think that brigade worth of tanks can shift the score in the face of a half million army, such an army would certainly make pulling out rabbits like in Kharkiv neigh impossible. Speaking of numbers, is there a site counting the training potential of Ukraine?
Can't really argue there. I did a short rant in this thread 10 months ago about our government doing shit about supporting Ukraine. I felt intense personal shame when our secretary of defense announced that Germany would be sending 5000 combat helmets, and blabbered on about what a substantial support that was.
Germany doesn't border Russia though. As major power Russia have a lot sway and a long memory, and until its defeat is assured one should measure the risk of direct involvement vs the possibility of painful consequences. Keep in mind that in 2015 most argued that Russian campaign in Syria was doomed to fail and a yet a decade later they won.
That said, there are myriad of ways to lend support unofficially, indeed there many that do so under the radar
Author
Topic: Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine - Personal Diary & Mutual Support (Read 118577 times)