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Author Topic: Latin American Politics: Moralism  (Read 94989 times)

Reelya

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Re: Latin American Politics: Lacerda-ing
« Reply #495 on: September 08, 2018, 10:18:16 pm »

Even though the whole thing never got to the support stage from the US, the fact that US officials entertained the idea is still going to anger a lot of people since it just looks like we're up to our old Cold War sheneinighans. And of course, there's no guarantee that the military coup will actually restore democracy or be any better than things are now.

It went ok the last time Venezuela had a right-wing coup. They merely abolished the constitution, the human rights ombudsman, the supreme court, the national electoral commission and parliament. Democracy restored! (at least according to Bush-era American TV).

One question we can ask is what effect the sanctions are having. Zimbabwe had similar sanctions, and the hyper-inflation only came after the sanctions were imposed. Similarly, Venezuela during Chavez's period 1999-2013 had lower inflation than the decade before, while the current hyper-inflation follows a set of similar sanctions as imposed on Zimbabwe in 1999. Also, the famous Weimar Republic hyperinflation was noted as being connected to the Treaty of Versailles, which was effectively a set of sanctions too. So, historically, you see sanctions followed by hyperinflation in a range of nations, regardless of whether they're rightwing, leftwing or whatever. It doesn't make much sense to say that hyperinflation is due to the economic theory of the one country such as "socialism" in Venezuela's case (hint: it's still a capitalist nation),  because that doesn't explain why such disparate nations have all had the same thing happen, preceded by one specific thing: sanctions. Politically, sanctions also rarely (if ever) lead to democracy, instead they fuel controlling tendencies of the current political order, so you see nations becoming more authoritarian in response to sanctions quite often in history.

I can make some good predictions about what would happen if Maduro is ousted from power. It would be good for some people, sanctions would be lifted, IMF loans would flow, US and UK taxpayers would bail out the nation. Then they get oil flowing at big discounts after bringing in the oil companies. Those are the good things for Venezuela. However, domestically, you need to look at who will be running the show, mostly people who signed off on, or approved of that coup in which they abolished all traces of constitutional rule when they had the chance last time. "War on the Poor" would be a likely scenario, with unions crushed, public health spending slashed and so forth. Don't forget that 54% of the nation were living in "extreme poverty", and they had peak inflation of 100% per year before 1999, when the people who want to overthrow Maduro used to be in power. You're only hearing about it more now because the people complaining are lighter-skinned middle-class people. When it was peasants in the barrios starving to death, the world just didn't care.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2018, 10:30:45 pm by Reelya »
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Doomblade187

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Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
« Reply #496 on: September 08, 2018, 11:19:11 pm »

While I don't doubt that international interference does play a role, the ecomomic policies and poor political performance,  combined with a refusal of humanitarian aid have not helped the situation. If the Maduro regime was better than the one before, that's good, but it doesn't excuse their totalitarian bullshit.

You do make a good point with being careful about regime change.
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In any case it would be a battle of critical thinking and I refuse to fight an unarmed individual.
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Teneb

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Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
« Reply #497 on: September 08, 2018, 11:55:48 pm »

Maduro ain't Chavez. Chavez was a skilled statesman who managed to control his government. Maduro... not so much.
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Doomblade187

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Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
« Reply #498 on: September 09, 2018, 12:55:35 am »

Maduro ain't Chavez. Chavez was a skilled statesman who managed to control his government. Maduro... not so much.
my American is showing.
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In any case it would be a battle of critical thinking and I refuse to fight an unarmed individual.
One mustn't stare into the pathos, lest one become Pathos.

Reelya

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Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
« Reply #499 on: September 09, 2018, 12:57:01 am »

Also for historical reference, in 1989 in the Pre-Chavez era, there were protests comparable to the anti-Maduro protests.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caracazo

Quote
The Caracazo, or sacudón, is the name given to the wave of protests, riots, looting, shootings and massacres that began on 27 February 1989 in Venezuela's capital, Caracas, and the surrounding towns. The weeklong clashes resulted in the deaths of hundreds of people, thousands by some accounts, mostly at the hands of security forces and the military.

Maduro at his most extremely authoritarian never got close to that response from the good old "democratic" days. Even at the worst, Maduro can't be said to have "massacred" protestors. One of the things Chavez was against was these previous massacres, and it's a given that since Chavez there have been no such massacres - except for the one initiated by the old-era military and police trying to wrest control from Chavez in 2002.

If you read the current accounts they need to scrape numbers together by including people killed by both security forces and rebels, people hit in the head with tear-gas cannisters, and people killed at the same time, in ways either caused by the protests or which turn out to be completely unrelated to the protests. And even adding up a year or two of those scattered deaths, they have about 10% of the lower estimates of the number killed by the military in the Caracazo demonstration by the previous regime, which neither Democrats or Republicans or the American media gave the first shit about. Bush Senior took the government's side in the 1989 Venezuelan massacre, and Bush Junior took the murdering police + military's side in the 2002 coup.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2018, 01:20:57 am by Reelya »
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Hanslanda

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Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
« Reply #500 on: September 20, 2018, 08:47:01 am »

PTW like the spying American I am.
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Well, we could put two and two together and write a book: "The Shit that Hans and Max Did: You Won't Believe This Shit."
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smjjames

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Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
« Reply #501 on: September 29, 2018, 10:00:21 pm »

From the polls here (which I grabbed from here), it looks like Brazils version of Trump* is leading. Though the actual leader is the deSilva guy, the former two term President, but he's blocked from running due to corruption. I guess it says something about the candidates that a former president ousted for corruption is way more popular than the other candidates.

Also, I think I've heard that Bolsonaro said that he would fix the corruption by applying 'military values', which sounds really worrying to me. Maybe he just means the discipline, but it's easy to see how it would go further.

Also2, it's funny how Bolsonaro, a far right candidate, is in a party called 'social liberals', turns the entire concept of liberal on it's head and bends it into a pretzel.

*TBH, he sounds like he is BEYOND Trump, like way worse in some aspects. Also, the 538 article thinks Bolsonaro is a Captian, but the poll article says General, so, which is correct?
« Last Edit: September 29, 2018, 10:03:03 pm by smjjames »
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Kagus

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Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
« Reply #502 on: September 30, 2018, 03:45:51 am »

He's generally a captain. Clearly.

Or perhaps he's actually a superhero, Captain General, and he fights against the generic problems the country is burdened with, such as education and poor people.

Reelya

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Re: Latin American Politics: Manifesting That Destiny
« Reply #503 on: September 30, 2018, 04:19:26 am »

He is the very model of a Brazilian army capitan.

Teneb

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Re: Latin American Politics: Peace and Love with Corporal Daciolo
« Reply #504 on: September 30, 2018, 10:47:10 am »

From the polls here (which I grabbed from here), it looks like Brazils version of Trump* is leading. Though the actual leader is the deSilva guy, the former two term President, but he's blocked from running due to corruption. I guess it says something about the candidates that a former president ousted for corruption is way more popular than the other candidates.

Also, I think I've heard that Bolsonaro said that he would fix the corruption by applying 'military values', which sounds really worrying to me. Maybe he just means the discipline, but it's easy to see how it would go further.

Also2, it's funny how Bolsonaro, a far right candidate, is in a party called 'social liberals', turns the entire concept of liberal on it's head and bends it into a pretzel.

*TBH, he sounds like he is BEYOND Trump, like way worse in some aspects. Also, the 538 article thinks Bolsonaro is a Captian, but the poll article says General, so, which is correct?
He's neither a captain nor a general. He USED to be a captain before he was kicked from the army for attempting domestic terrorism (he wanted to destroy Rio's water dam because he was butthurt about the end of the dictatorship), but was merely kicked out due to legal bullshit. His running mate is a retired general who proudly states he was mentored by the head of the dictatorship's secret police, so that's lovely too. Also remember that the Nazi party had "social" in the name (and Bolsonaro's electorate are fond of claiming Nazis were leftists to make the left look bad).

Also, every single poll predicting the second round of the elections shows him losing (and one tie). He also went on record saying that he won't accept any result that is not his victory. So that's just lovely. Yesterday, not sure if in response to that specifically, more than 40 cities had gigantic protests against him.


Meanwhile, candidate Cabo Daciolo, who has no chance of winning, is befuddling everyone by being the most consistent conservative I've ever seen. Why? When he says he's pro-life because that's what a good christian should be... he means it. Despite being in a fascistic party he went on record to say that drug traffickers and militias should be... reformed in humane jails rather than the horrible dungeons we have right now, that they need to be shown love and given equal opportunity, and that giving the police MORE GUNS will just make the problem worse. It's like we've fallen into some bizarro world.

Sorry for the lack of sources, but it's all in pt-br (I can post them anyway if there is demand)

EDIT: Fixed the image
« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 11:26:33 am by Teneb »
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smjjames

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Re: Latin American Politics: Peace and Love with Corporal Daciolo
« Reply #505 on: September 30, 2018, 11:10:54 am »

From the polls here (which I grabbed from here), it looks like Brazils version of Trump* is leading. Though the actual leader is the deSilva guy, the former two term President, but he's blocked from running due to corruption. I guess it says something about the candidates that a former president ousted for corruption is way more popular than the other candidates.

Also, I think I've heard that Bolsonaro said that he would fix the corruption by applying 'military values', which sounds really worrying to me. Maybe he just means the discipline, but it's easy to see how it would go further.

Also2, it's funny how Bolsonaro, a far right candidate, is in a party called 'social liberals', turns the entire concept of liberal on it's head and bends it into a pretzel.

*TBH, he sounds like he is BEYOND Trump, like way worse in some aspects. Also, the 538 article thinks Bolsonaro is a Captian, but the poll article says General, so, which is correct?
He's neither a captain nor a general. He USED to be a captain before he was kicked from the army for attempting domestic terrorism (he wanted to destroy Rio's water dam because he was butthurt about the end of the dictatorship), but was merely kicked out due to legal bullshit. His running mate is a retired general who proudly states he was mentored by the head of the dictatorship's secret police, so that's lovely too. Also remember that the Nazi party had "social" in the name (and Bolsonaro's electorate are fond of claiming Nazis were leftists to make the left look bad).

@bolded: What?? And he is still allowed to run? That's just messed up.

And yeah, I know the Nazi party had 'social' in it's name, I was poking at the 'liberal' bit because here, liberal is left wing and the guy is hard right wing.

Quote
Meanwhile, candidate Cabo Daciolo, who has no chance of winning, is befuddling everyone by being the most consistent conservative I've ever seen. Why? When he says he's pro-life because that's what a good christian should be... he means it. Despite being in a fascistic party he went on record to say that drug traffickers and militias should be... reformed in humane jails rather than the horrible dungeons we have right now, that they need to be shown love and given equal opportunity, and that giving the police MORE GUNS will just make the problem worse. It's like we've fallen into some bizarro world.

Sorry for the lack of sources, but it's all in pt-br (I can post them anyway if there is demand)

So, down in Brazil, Conservatives are left wing and Liberals are right wing? Must be really confusing for Brazillians to talk politics with Americans. Pro-life (aka anti-abortion) is a standard conservative position over here though.
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Reelya

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Re: Latin American Politics: Peace and Love with Corporal Daciolo
« Reply #506 on: September 30, 2018, 12:37:08 pm »

So, down in Brazil, Conservatives are left wing and Liberals are right wing? Must be really confusing for Brazillians to talk politics with Americans. Pro-life (aka anti-abortion) is a standard conservative position over here though.
Nope, Bolsonaro switched parties to the social liberals, and then the main faction of that part left in disgust, leaving the faction who brought Bolsonaro to have at it. They're talking about renaming themselves Republicanos.

Also, however, remember that in the non-American world, "liberal" mainly means economic liberal, as in the phrase "neoliberalism", whereas "libertarian" would more likely be used to mean what "social liberal" means in the USA. Since "libertarian" is closer to the phrase "civil liberties". It's actually the modern usages in America of liberal and libertarian which are out of whack with the historical meanings.

Many Americans seem "mind blown" by the concept that e.g. "libertarianism" could be defined differently elsewhere, but they miss the point that the modern American definition is quite recent - post WWII. Other nations just never had this "rebranding" of "libertarian" as an extremist capitalist doctrine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertarianism
« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 12:47:23 pm by Reelya »
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smjjames

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Re: Latin American Politics: Peace and Love with Corporal Daciolo
« Reply #507 on: September 30, 2018, 01:13:04 pm »

I don't think I've ever heard of the term 'social liberal' used here in the US, probably gets lumped into 'SOCIALIZMZZ!!' edit: Unless perhaps one is talking about social issues (abortion, gay rights, etc), where there are social conservatives and social liberals.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2018, 01:16:03 pm by smjjames »
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WealthyRadish

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Re: Latin American Politics: Peace and Love with Corporal Daciolo
« Reply #508 on: September 30, 2018, 04:41:20 pm »

A basic way of thinking about it is to consider whether a party's social or economic policies can be called "liberal". In the US, Democrats are both "social liberals" (permissive social policies, civil rights etc) as well as "economic liberals" (center right economic policy, low taxes and high private sector support). Republicans on the other hand are relatively "socially illiberal" (mostly because of religious zealotry and widespread racism in the US) but are also more intensely "economic liberals" (further-right economic policy to the point of being plutocratic). It's ironic that Republicans have turned the entire term "liberal" into a pejorative while themselves being economically more intensely liberal in the classical sense, but it makes some sense since it's really on the "social liberal" end of things that the two parties differ most.

In many places, "social liberals" (both social and economic liberals, like Democrats) would be considered at least historically "conservatives" relative to the other parties, as most places had far a greater development of labor politics and socialism (before it was suppressed or otherwise died out, particularly strongly in the cold war). The gap has more recently in the 80s and 90s been narrowed by the "3rd way" center-left politics led by people like Bill Clinton and Tony Blair, who made "neoliberalism" more prominent in formally left-wing parties. This led many parties that were formally at least nominally economically socialist or labor parties to become effectively completely economically liberal, or just in general more economically right-wing if they were already economically liberal.
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smjjames

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Re: Latin American Politics: Peace and Love with Corporal Daciolo
« Reply #509 on: October 05, 2018, 10:16:13 am »

@reelya and urbangiraffe: It was partially me joking with teneb as he was saying it was like bizarro world and partly actual confusion because the words far-right and liberal just don't mesh, like, don't even compute together.

Anyhoo, Brazil is voting this Sunday. According to the article, this is just the first round though. If my understanding is correct, Brazils system is closer to that of France (with a first round and then a second without going through a primary) than the US (with a primary first round and general second round. Which, actually, isn't all that different on paper).
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