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[Frumple]

I wonder if we'll hit a million recorded cases in the US alone.

Only if we don't stop testing. A million recorded cases would be all of less than a third of a percent of our population -- it's around 0.3 percent -- when we're getting regular projections that over 30-40 percent of the country will eventually get infected. Unless we just stop fucking testing entirely, no shit we're going to have a million recorded cases in the US alone. If we keep on top of testing we're probably going to have well over ten fucking times a million recorded cases. Shit, we're probably going to have over a million recorded cases in individual states.

We're going to be fucking lucky at this point if we don't have a million goddamn deaths. Likely is looking more like 500-600k dead, and it gets worse from there. Minimum 'holy-shit-god-actually-is-on-our-side' levels is still six digit body count, with everything that means with the rate of infection and hospitalization

[scriver]

That feels so swindlingly huge numbers to me, like it would administratively impossible to even gather.

And yet, for you it is Tuesday

[wierd]

Given the lacklustre responses in most states, who have been far more concerned with economics than with human life, I am gonna throw a completely unscientific, "Gut feeling" estimate at between 1 and 1.5 million deaths in the US.

I hope I am wrong-- truly-  But that's what my gut is telling me.


**Remember, the following is/was the status quo in the USA in "The good times."

1) Too many patients per doctor, to the point where doctors did not get much sleep, because of the antics of the AMA to artificially restrict supply of practitioners to keep wages high.
2) Unchecked pricing in medical industry on equipment and products, because "Muh FREE MARKETZ!!"
3) Unchecked pricing on medicine in general, allowing 4000% price increases overnight, because "Muh FREE MARKETZ!!"
4) Rampant inability for people to obtain basic healthcare IN GENERAL because of rampant income inequality

and then you throw ON TOP of that-- 
Insufficient beds,
insufficient staff,
insufficient PPE,
insufficient equipment for ICUs,
insufficient testing,
insufficient quarantine enforcement,
insufficient supplies of medicine.....

THEN you have

Insufficient affirmative and proactive action from state and federal governments to contain the outbreak
Insufficient comprehension from the public at large to STAY THE FUCK HOME, EVEN IF YOU FEEL FINE.
Insufficient food reserves and delivery to support large urban centers in the middle of the emergency
PEOPLE BUYING AND USING FUCKING GUNS during the emergency
Etc...


Seriously- this is just "Perfect storm" writ large.

[coalboat]

Is it real that some buy guns? It's understandable for gun owners to buy ammo, but there seems no point to buy gun if one doesn't have one already...

[wierd]

Yes.  It is totally real.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-15/coronavirus-pandemic-gun-sales-surge-us-california

[delphonso]

Gun sales surge at basically any crisis in the US, so not surprising there.

Cousin has a fever and labored breathing - since he's young he won't get tested. Basically advised to relax and wait for it to all blow over.

[martinuzz]

Meanwhile in the public hospitals in the Bronx and Brooklyn, doctors are wearing garbage bags with duct tape for protection, they don't have anything else.
Face masks are lightly washed with soap and re-used.
Private hospitals in Manhattan yet have enough protective clothes though.
All hail the difference between the rich and the poor!

EDIT:  In India, the corona virus isn't the only problem anymore.  Famine is striking the poor.  Millions of day laborers haven't had food for two weeks because they no longer get their daily income.

[Kagus]

More than 5000, and Guam is nowhere near fit to handle suddenly having a new sick population like that.

Yeah, they might end up tipping over again with all that weight in one area...

[martinuzz]

Let's hope the US has no protocol to scuttle the carrier when it is left unmanned.
Don't think Guam would be very pleased with nuclear reactor remains on the sea bottom.

[mko]

Let's hope the US has no protocol to scuttle the carrier when it is left unmanned.
Don't think Guam would be very pleased with nuclear reactor remains on the sea bottom.

I am not sure whatever it is an unfunny joke or a serious reply. But I can assure you that it will not happen.

EDIT: Engrish reduced, thanks.

[Frumple]

Let's hope the US has no protocol to scuttle the carrier when it is left unmanned.
Don't think Guam would be very pleased with nuclear reactor remains on the sea bottom.

I am not sure whatever it is an unfunny joke or a serious reply. But I can ensure you that it will not happen.

Assure is the word you're looking for, there, heh. Unless you're the relevant admiral or somethin', I guess.

Also, this is like the one administration I've seen in our history I'm not sure I'd actually be 100% comfortable agreeing with that statement. It's stupid enough I could see the shitgibbon in chief ordering it, probably so some company or another can salvage the remains of the ship

[McTraveller]

Given the lacklustre responses in most states, who have been far more concerned with economics than with human life, I am gonna throw a completely unscientific, "Gut feeling" estimate at between 1 and 1.5 million deaths in the US.

Over what timeframe?  Forgive the morbidity, but the numbers:

Even at 10k deaths/day, every day, that would take 100 days straight.  At "current levels of social distancing" there was some quote that peak US deaths/day will be like 2500 (we're not quite to 1000/day yet).  2500 deaths/day would take 400 days straight of that death toll to reach 1M - over a year.  I can see a daily total of 10k, but not sustained for 100 days straight.  If it goes on that long, I suspect we'll have civil collapse well before that 3 months is up - and that's even more frightening than getting sick.

[wierd]

I was including ancillary deaths caused by associated conditions:

Increased violent crime
Preventable deaths from other illness or injury
deaths from police actions (if hard lockdowns are needed)
etc.

Not just Covid-19 associated respiratory disorder deaths.

[scriver]

Let's hope the US has no protocol to scuttle the carrier when it is left unmanned.
Don't think Guam would be very pleased with nuclear reactor remains on the sea bottom.

I am not sure whatever it is an unfunny joke or a serious reply. But I can ensure you that it will not happen.

Assure is the word you're looking for, there, heh. Unless you're the relevant admiral or somethin', I guess.

...Maybe he is a Macguyver for hire, offering his services?

[McTraveller]

I was including ancillary deaths caused by associated conditions:

Ah ok - although even that is pretty extreme.  Average annual deaths in the US is about 2.8M a year (average almost 7700 a day) - increasing that by 50% would indeed be pretty cataclysmic.  I suppose that lines up with the "civil collapse" situation.