Post by: EuchreJack on April 05, 2022, 01:40:12 pm
I would ask that everyone respect the quite harsh reactions that some may have to these events. War is nasty enough, suffering is prevalent, try not to add to negativity if you can.
Good civil discourse will keep this thread going longer. Please, avoid advocating for death as much as possible.
Please avoid personal attacks! >:( >:( Whether or not you agree with what someone said several weeks ago...was relevant several weeks ago. Let it go, please.
Post by: hector13 on April 05, 2022, 02:31:07 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on April 05, 2022, 02:59:57 pm
Second, I think the flow of information that existed in the Ukraine thread is vitally important, and needs to be maintained. Hopefully, if others can respect the division of reporting and responding like you have, then we'll at least keep the informational thread going. This thread, might flicker a bit, but the dissemination of information should continue.
Post by: nenjin on April 05, 2022, 03:03:15 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 05, 2022, 04:49:58 pm
Post by: heydude6 on April 05, 2022, 08:11:37 pm
Frankly, I feel like we're Carthage during the second Punic Wars. We were attacked by a superior enemy, but due to cleverness and morale we were able to score victory after victory, only to lose it all at the end once it was no longer possible to ignore basic realities.
Perhaps Russia itself is ignoring realities, maybe there's a growing rebel faction who us westerners aren't able to know about, but I doubt Putin would let such people live if he knew about them.
I feel like this coming decade is going to be a hellish one.
EDIT:
What we need right now are psyops, ways of sneaking information into the Russian poeple that will make them doubt Putin's narrative. I believe Ukraine can hold it's own against unmotivated conscripts, but if the Russians actually start to fight with ferocity, then the country and by extension the World is doomed.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 05, 2022, 08:24:47 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 05, 2022, 10:23:33 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on April 06, 2022, 12:37:28 am
1) Ukrainian economy is... collapsing. Between physical destruction, disruption of supply chains, the collapse of demand (people spend money only on essential stuff), and workforce being mobilized... many business are collapsing and cash reserves of the population are dwindling down
2) Mood is increasingly grim. It started as a war for freedom, now it is apparent that this is a war for survival. More and more people come to the realization that should we lose Russians will do to us with Germans did to Jews in the 1940s
3) Even with war censorship and fog of war it becomes more and more apparent how high our casaulities are. After all, we give our fallen proper funeral. My own estimation is 10 000+ killed servicemen, 100 000+ killed civilians. Most people I know have more pessimistic estimates
4) Mood is gradually shifting from "we will win" to "we will make Russians pay". Everyone (at least around me) is beginning that in this war of attrition we are not the winning side. Sanctions on Russia are cool and everything, but their infrastructure isn't blowing up. Positive news from the front bring little joy - Yay, 10 Russian tanks destroyed today. Whatever, they have thousands more.
5) In the same time, all those diplomatic negotiations with Russians cause nothing but anger. What kind of deals our government wants to sign with those lying monsters? I guarantee you that any ceasefire\peace deal with Russia that will include territorial concessions or limitations to our armed forces or some kind of neutral status, will result in Zelensky's approval rating going well below pre-war 35% and the country, devastated by the war, will enter into a political crisis of epic proportions
6) Everyone is horrified thinking about the fate of people still in occupation. Rumors about Bucha and other towns and villages were circulating weeks before its liberation, no one wanted to believe them. Now people tend to believe in all rumored atrocities... And there are many rumors, many very nasty rumors
Post by: heydude6 on April 06, 2022, 01:26:41 am
All of the above makes it sound like Ukraine’s gonna turn into Vietnam. If Russia conquers it, then expect survivors to hide and perform guerrilla attacks. I expect much savagery.
Ironically, the Viet Kong were constantly able to acquire new recruits in spite of the crimes they committed. Maybe these Ukrainians will find a way to bring the truth to Russians somehow, and perhaps lead a revolt that could destroy Putin from within.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 06, 2022, 01:51:39 am
Probably not the best thing to hear while I’m trying to fall asleep. Guess I’ll have to comment.
All of the above makes it sound like Ukraine’s gonna turn into Vietnam. If Russia conquers it, then expect survivors to hide and perform guerrilla attacks. I expect much savagery.
Ironically, the Viet Kong were constantly able to acquire new recruits in spite of the crimes they committed. Maybe these Ukrainians will find a way to bring the truth to Russians somehow, and perhaps lead a revolt that could destroy Putin from within.
Russians know the truth. All of it. They have internet. It is largely unrestricted (and existing restrictions are easily bypassed by a basic VPN) and all information is available in Russian language. They choose to ignore it.
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 06, 2022, 03:06:22 am
Many people, particularly older ones, don't trust Western news because they have been brainwashed. Not really their fault, the propaganda machine painting Western news sources as fakes is strong.Probably not the best thing to hear while I’m trying to fall asleep. Guess I’ll have to comment.
All of the above makes it sound like Ukraine’s gonna turn into Vietnam. If Russia conquers it, then expect survivors to hide and perform guerrilla attacks. I expect much savagery.
Ironically, the Viet Kong were constantly able to acquire new recruits in spite of the crimes they committed. Maybe these Ukrainians will find a way to bring the truth to Russians somehow, and perhaps lead a revolt that could destroy Putin from within.
Russians know the truth. All of it. They have internet. It is largely unrestricted (and existing restrictions are easily bypassed by a basic VPN) and all information is available in Russian language. They choose to ignore it.
Do you expect a tech-illiterate person (of which there are many in Russia) who mostly hangs around heavily-censored social networks like VK to know what a VPN is to access the truth?
Post by: King Zultan on April 06, 2022, 04:07:36 am
Post by: Strongpoint on April 06, 2022, 04:27:59 am
Flat earthers have full access to proofs Earth is a sphere. Antivaxers have full access to proofs that vaccines save lives. Biblical literalists have full access to proofs that biological evolution is a fact. Radical Trumpists have full access to proofs that there were no rigged elections in the USA. Trying to bring the truth to these people is a waste of time and effort. They already know the truth, they choose to not believe it. If facts contradict their beliefs, those facts will be ignored.
Post by: martinuzz on April 06, 2022, 05:09:53 am
YouTube has suspended the account of a Chinese vlogger who reported on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.Youtube licking Pooh's pooholeSpoiler: from BBC live updates (click to show/hide)
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 06, 2022, 05:13:29 am
I have... had a cousin living in Russia for the past 20 years. He knows everything. I told him the truth. His aunt told him the truth. His brother told him the truth... His parents didn't live long enough but I think he wouldn't accept the truth from them either.Again, many Russians, particularly older ones, are indeed isolated. They don't really have anyone to tell them the truth, or they're brainwashed enough that they think it's fake (source: talking to Russian boomers).
Flat earthers have full access to proofs Earth is a sphere. Antivaxers have full access to proofs that vaccines save lives. Biblical literalists have full access to proofs that biological evolution is a fact. Radical Trumpists have full access to proofs that there were no rigged elections in the USA. Trying to bring the truth to these people is a waste of time and effort. They already know the truth, they choose to not believe it. If facts contradict their beliefs, those facts will be ignored.
So were many Germans during Hitler's rule, actually. And many Chinese are like that now despite access to VPNs and such to bypass the Great Firewall (source: Chinese friend). Propaganda can indeed override outside information if it's loud enough and the person is accustomed to it.
If there is a regime change, such propaganda would need to be undone, as it was during denazification in Germany.
Post by: brewer bob on April 06, 2022, 05:25:49 am
3) Even with war censorship and fog of war it becomes more and more apparent how high our casaulities are. After all, we give our fallen proper funeral. My own estimation is 10 000+ killed servicemen, 100 000+ killed civilians. Most people I know have more pessimistic estimates
I've been wondering what these numbers might be and been worried that they're probably high.
Quote
5) In the same time, all those diplomatic negotiations with Russians cause nothing but anger. What kind of deals our government wants to sign with those lying monsters? I guarantee you that any ceasefire\peace deal with Russia that will include territorial concessions or limitations to our armed forces or some kind of neutral status, will result in Zelensky's approval rating going well below pre-war 35% and the country, devastated by the war, will enter into a political crisis of epic proportions
I really hope no deals aren't made with Russia that doesn't involve the complete withdrawal of Russian troops and handing war criminals to international justice. A ceasefire would just allow Putin to adapt his plans before the next round. And Russia is known to have violated ceasefire agreements. Putin wants to destroy Ukraine, he won't settle for anything less.
I'm really hoping Western governments won't pressure Zelensky to accept a rotten deal with Russia just for the sake of peace. We need to send all the help we can to Ukraine to fight back. There can't be any peace as long as Putin and his regime holds power.
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 06, 2022, 06:03:13 am
Post by: Strongpoint on April 06, 2022, 06:47:06 am
https://twitter.com/SergiyKyslytsya/status/1511670613806563332
Post by: Svarte Troner on April 06, 2022, 07:20:37 am
If there is a regime change, such propaganda would need to be undone, as it was during denazification in Germany.
So the US will hand out a bunch of cushy CIA jobs to ex-Putinists, over half of government officials in Russia will still be Putinists, and in 10 years half of Russians will want a Strong Fuhrer to return, got it.
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 06, 2022, 08:17:02 am
I mentioned propaganda specifically, not the other aspects of a hypothetical deputinization.If there is a regime change, such propaganda would need to be undone, as it was during denazification in Germany.
So the US will hand out a bunch of cushy CIA jobs to ex-Putinists, over half of government officials in Russia will still be Putinists, and in 10 years half of Russians will want a Strong Fuhrer to return, got it.
Post by: Svarte Troner on April 06, 2022, 08:32:51 am
I mentioned propaganda specifically, not the other aspects of a hypothetical deputinization.If there is a regime change, such propaganda would need to be undone, as it was during denazification in Germany.
So the US will hand out a bunch of cushy CIA jobs to ex-Putinists, over half of government officials in Russia will still be Putinists, and in 10 years half of Russians will want a Strong Fuhrer to return, got it.
Fair enough, just pointing out how pathetic the "denazification" of Germany was (by the west at least, the Soviets unsurprisingly had the right ideas).
Tangentially related to the Ukraine war because he was a prominent fascist propagandist in Russia constantly whinging about how Ukraine isn't real/belongs to Russia or whatever, Vladimir "Zhirik" Zhirinovsky is officially dead in the dirt, after a few months of a covid-induced coma (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-far-right-politician-vladimir-zhirinovsky-has-died-parliament-speaker-2022-04-06/). Rest in Piss.
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 06, 2022, 11:24:43 am
Post by: EuchreJack on April 06, 2022, 11:36:15 am
Post by: Strongpoint on April 06, 2022, 11:37:27 am
Thousands of people will never know the fate of their loved ones. Were they killed in Mariupol? Were they "rescued" into Russia to be sold into slavery or something? Were they... People will ask such questions for the rest of their lives.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 06, 2022, 11:42:14 am
Post by: Ganondworf on April 06, 2022, 01:57:47 pm
Our (Ukrainian) ambassador in UN is... becoming increasingly non-diplomatic in his Twitter. When professional diplomats start talking like this... It tells something about the mood of the nation.
https://twitter.com/SergiyKyslytsya/status/1511670613806563332
Ukrainian ambassador to Germany Andrij Melnyk has stopped being diplomatic weeks ago, and he really pulls no punches. In doing so he risks alienating our politicians, possibly our government. However, I do think he is completely justified, because our country is so slow on the uptake and complacent.
He produces headlines like this: "All Russians are now our enemies" in an interview with FAZ, a high profile newspaper. https://twitter.com/melnykandrij/status/1511589607049252865 (https://twitter.com/melnykandrij/status/1511589607049252865) The interview expands on his reasoning, of course, but it is a good example of his work.
I think he does his job well, especially because he seems to give no shit about being diplomatic. I hope he gets results.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 06, 2022, 03:00:15 pm
We are grateful for all the support we are receiving. We understand that without all of this assistance situation would be direr.
Even if I could say many bad, bad things about certain Western politicians I am immensely grateful for many things
I am grateful for how welcoming Europe is. I am grateful to Poland, with which we have... rather complcated history, to Moldova that accepted an insane amount of refugees (per capita) while being a country with limited resources.
I am grateful for weapons and ammunition. It would be a very different war without NLAWs and Stingers. The Czech Republic and Poland provide an insane amount of... stuff. Way more than can be seen in open sources.
I understand the value of NATO's intelligence
I am grateful for all donations coming to different funds, every dollar\euor\pound\etc counts.
I salute to heroes who came to fight as volunteers. I also appreciate Belarussian resistance both in the form of the Belarussian volunteer battalion and guys who do sabotage or provide intelligence to Ukraine. Today, 4 Belarussians were caught trying to sabotage local railways, their fate won't be pleasant.
Even people on forums and social networks are incredibly important. They help a lot in the informational warfare and canceling Russia is a holy task.
But we want more... We need more to win this war
Post by: martinuzz on April 07, 2022, 03:07:26 pm
Russia: We withdraw from the currupt and politicized institution called the Human Rights Council.
Really, they don't care about anything. Being kicked out of Swift? No problemo. Kicked out of the Council of Europe? We never liked it anyways. Cut of gas and oil? Pssst China and India wtb cheap oil?
We need to come up with things that will hit them hard where they feel it.
Dear Russia. End this war, withdraw your forces and repent, or we will be forced to DELETE ALL YOUR POKEMON ACCOUNTS.
Think of all the years of careful breeding. Lost forever, in the blink of an eye.
The clouds in the sky will echo for years, your collective wails of suka blyet.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 07, 2022, 03:20:07 pm
Some info about what the current Azov regiment really is and what it isn't.
Post by: nenjin on April 07, 2022, 04:20:08 pm
World: We kick you out of the Human Rights Council
Russia: We withdraw from the currupt and politicized institution called the Human Rights Council.
Really, they don't care about anything. Being kicked out of Swift? No problemo. Kicked out of the Council of Europe? We never liked it anyways. Cut of gas and oil? Pssst China and India wtb cheap oil?
We need to come up with things that will hit them hard where they feel it.
Dear Russia. End this war, withdraw your forces and repent, or we will be forced to DELETE ALL YOUR POKEMON ACCOUNTS.
Think of all the years of careful breeding. Lost forever, in the blink of an eye.
The clouds in the sky will echo for years, your collective wails of suka blyet.
That's the thing with nations that have experienced deprivation and suffering......they're immune to most leverage that would otherwise affect other nations.
Post by: Imic on April 08, 2022, 06:21:17 pm
Post by: The_Explorer on April 08, 2022, 07:16:25 pm
time to sanction all of them
It truly is west vs east as far as I see. Very surprising india joined russia/china though, thought they were more allied to the west tbh
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 08, 2022, 11:20:46 pm
Post by: heydude6 on April 09, 2022, 12:07:12 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 09, 2022, 02:55:14 am
Post by: Strongpoint on April 09, 2022, 03:28:27 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 09, 2022, 08:23:30 am
Post by: Strongpoint on April 10, 2022, 10:03:12 am
Russian generals, sadly, are doing something sensible for a change. They are amassing all they got in one theater to punch through.
My hope is that they will do the usual Russian thing and instead of rational operation with a steady pace, they'll go for "achieve the victory before May 9th no matter the cost."
Post by: Starver on April 10, 2022, 12:28:42 pm
Even Silvio Berlusconi is turning his back on Putin.Quote from: BBC live updatesEx-Italian PM 'deeply disappointed' by Putin's behaviour
Former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said that he was "deeply disappointed and saddened" by the behaviour of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
When he was in power, Berlusconi had a close friendship with Putin, and invited him on vacation to his villa in Sardinia.
"I've known him about 20 years ago and he always seemed to me to be a democrat and a man of peace," the 85-year-old billionaire said, addressing a convention of his conservative Forza Italia party in Rome.
[...]
He's not the only one who liked Putin 20 years ago. Almost everyone up to the level of Dubya himself (if you think that's a bonus!) pretty much supported Putin's work in that era.
After the post-Gorbachev reallignment and the 'interesting' blips further along the way, it seemed like Putin was realligning the Russia Federation into 'the real world', and in a number of regards he probably did. Which is not to say he was the answer to the problem, but he was an answer to it.
Possibly, if he had accomplished that and then moved away having passed power onwards to (hopefully) a continuation of that progress, he might have been considered a great man. But then he decided to play the hokey-cokey with the leadership of his nation, so that he could return to the top position (having really never having gone away) and then even reorganise matters so that he didn't have to fuss about with such technicalities. Whether he had the idea from the beginning, I don't know, but he seems to have ended up with the need to be an extremely great man (by his own measure).
I think I've said it before, but I'm wondering how much of the latest turn of events is down to his actually realising his own mortality (maybe an adverse diagnosis?), and he thought he saw an opportunity to buff his legacy up to the greatest level he can. But he's abandoned the "play nicely with the rest of the world" a number of years ago. How long ago, is debatable. Maybe even it was a long-game plan even back to the twenty years ago, or maybe it just inexoribly evolved from a genuine outward-facing perspective that ended up twisting backwards into the more nationalistic/self-centred attitude that we see today.
Future historians will have fun deconstructing this, especially if they ever get access to the kind of information that currently is not public knowledge, or even currently confirmable in any way at all. But I reckon that there'll be a point in time somewhere between 2000 and 2008 that will be the trigger-point.
(I mean, it's all well and good to be pro-<InsertYourOwnCountryHere>, but it seems this has landed on entirely the wrong side of the zero-sum assumption, which is already a net destructive attitude.)
Post by: martinuzz on April 10, 2022, 01:06:36 pm
Russian generals, sadly, are doing something sensible for a change. They are amassing all they got in one theater to punch through.
Sounds like time for US friends to supply a few MOAB fuel air bombs.
Post by: brewer bob on April 10, 2022, 02:26:47 pm
He's not the only one who liked Putin 20 years ago. Almost everyone up to the level of Dubya himself (if you think that's a bonus!) pretty much supported Putin's work in that era.
Yeah, the world's leaders were a bunch of nasty assholes at that time (don't mean to say they're any better now). Everyone was using the War on Terror as an excuse to pass new laws, which could easily be used against social movements (the growing so-called anti-globalization movement lost its momentum and died pretty much after the September 11th attacks).
Quote
After the post-Gorbachev reallignment and the 'interesting' blips further along the way, it seemed like Putin was realligning the Russia Federation into 'the real world', and in a number of regards he probably did. Which is not to say he was the answer to the problem, but he was an answer to it.
Possibly, if he had accomplished that and then moved away having passed power onwards to (hopefully) a continuation of that progress, he might have been considered a great man.
Dunno, Putin was a pretty awful, horrible man already when he rose to power (under a bit sketchy circumstances, but maybe that goes a bit too much into conspiracy theories). He didn't really waste any time to take control of the media and pass new laws aimed to suppress dissenting views. Human rights violations were his thing since day one.
Post by: JoshuaFH on April 10, 2022, 08:16:02 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on April 10, 2022, 10:40:56 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 10, 2022, 10:46:56 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on April 10, 2022, 10:51:23 pm
IMO, Putin is unimportant now. Russian society wants a big victory and if he will try to stop the war without it, then he will be removed from power and the war will continue.
It's best to remember that sort of view is both self-perpetuated by the Russian State, and it is ultimately transitory.
We are also only in the first few months of this War.
With the information control over in Russia, I'm sure Putin could spin whatever sort of victory into a Big Win that nobody can deny without going to Prison.
So it really is "When does Putin's country suffer enough losses in manpower, materials, and cash that Putin doesn't think he can accept any more of them?"
Post by: Strongpoint on April 11, 2022, 12:01:46 am
IMO, Putin is unimportant now. Russian society wants a big victory and if he will try to stop the war without it, then he will be removed from power and the war will continue.
It's best to remember that sort of view is both self-perpetuated by the Russian State, and it is ultimately transitory.
We are also only in the first few months of this War.
With the information control over in Russia, I'm sure Putin could spin whatever sort of victory into a Big Win that nobody can deny without going to Prison.
So it really is "When does Putin's country suffer enough losses in manpower, materials, and cash that Putin doesn't think he can accept any more of them?"
I monitor Russian social networks\forums and I can say that the radical part of Russian society is already rather angry. They are not buying "retreat from Kyiv was a tactical maneuver.", they use the best example of Russian swearing when any negotiations with "Nazi" are even proposed, they call Putin and his generals morons and cowards. (Remember, they do believe that their army is super powerful and modern, who to blame if such army can't defeat pathetic Ukraine?)
I think the least they'll accept is 1) Full control over Donbas 2) Annexation of already occupied territories into Crimea (Tavrida) and 3) Ukraine signing a humiliating capitulation with terms like partial demilitarization
Everything less will mean huge dissent among people who actually matter.
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 11, 2022, 01:17:57 am
Post by: martinuzz on April 11, 2022, 11:50:38 am
And 100 million for every Duma member or military commander.
Post by: nenjin on April 11, 2022, 12:24:50 pm
Post by: martinuzz on April 11, 2022, 12:26:46 pm
They have become a worse threat to humanity than even climate change.
Post by: heydude6 on April 11, 2022, 12:42:23 pm
I wonder what would happen if the ultra rich of this world announced they put a 1 billion dollar bounty on Putin's head.
And 100 million for every Duma member or military commander.
Probably the same thing when the United States put a million dollar bounty on Osama Bin Laden.* Absolutely nothing. Don’t underestimate the ability of despots to protect themselves.
*The bounty was not even for the head of Bin Laden, just for info about where he may be hiding. Even then, nobody would bite.
Preferably not, but if need be, with nukes. They have become a worse threat to humanity than even climate change.
Careful with that talk Martin, Nukes by their very nature are a weapon that cause tons of collateral damage. A single bomb dropped on Moscow would create more civilian casualties than Ukraine has suffered in this entire war. I can’t call the average Russian citizen innocent due to how twisted they are by Putin’s propaganda, but I don’t think the few reasonable Russians remaining would be comfortable with us advocating for the mass slaughter of their people.
This fascism is a worse threat than climate change though.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 11, 2022, 01:43:52 pm
I'm leaning more and more to the opinion that the only just outcome to this conflict is the complete demilitarization and denazification of Russia. Preferably not, but if need be, with nukes.
They have become a worse threat to humanity than even climate change.
Actually, Russia and climate change have one solution: Humanity must find an alternative to fossil fuels ASAP. As a bonus, it will also give less money to radical Islam, another major problem.
EU has a great opportunity to say "we are at war" and go for wartime level of measures to drastically lower consumption of fossil fuels and develop new technologies
Post by: brewer bob on April 11, 2022, 03:47:06 pm
Allegedly, Russian forces used a poisonous substance of unknown origin against the Ukrainian military and civilians in Mariupol, which was dropped from an UAV. - https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1513597873593663492Oh boy it's Aleppo all over again
If this is confirmed, I'm afraid the red line will be re-drawn again. I don't know how much it will take for the Western governments to react to this shit with something else than sanctions, which still aren't enough and work too slow (and don't really hurt those with offshore holdings).
(Edit: quotes from the War in Ukraine thread (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=179709.0).)
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 11, 2022, 05:30:11 pm
If this is confirmed, I'm afraid the red line will be re-drawn again. I don't know how much it will take for the Western governments to react to this shit with something else than sanctions, which still aren't enough and work too slow (and don't really hurt those with offshore holdings).I mean, I know Western nations are hesitant to intervene due to nukes, but if Ukraine is subjected to chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, does it make sense to not intervene out of fear weapons that get used will be used if they have already been used?
(Edit: quotes from the War in Ukraine thread (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=179709.0).)
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 11, 2022, 09:46:42 pm
I'm leaning more and more to the opinion that the only just outcome to this conflict is the complete demilitarization and denazification of Russia. Preferably not, but if need be, with nukes.If you want to use nukes against Russian civilians, then you're as bad or worse than Putin. You can't claim moral superiority over a genocidal dictator if you want to kill millions of civilians, whether brainwashed by propaganda or not. That is a dangerous path to go down.
They have become a worse threat to humanity than even climate change.
I'd be content with demilitarization, but it would only be possible if Putin is overthrown from the inside, due to nukes; thus the West must spread anti-government rhetoric on Russian websites to speed that up, incite revolts and anti-police violence, and arm any rebels that crop up.
The only just outcome to this war is Putin facing the wall. Or getting torn apart by a crowd. Or getting guillotined. I wouldn't settle for life imprisonment, only his death can satisfy me.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 11, 2022, 10:24:05 pm
Saying that, in case of a full nuclear exchange, I prefer to be evaporated
Post by: JoshuaFH on April 11, 2022, 10:34:33 pm
Post by: martinuzz on April 12, 2022, 02:51:30 am
And yes, it would be best if Russians overthrew Putin and revolted. But you're wrong if you say that's up to the West to incite.
It's up to you (not you, the person, you, the Russian people). You already had more than 40 days since this war started to stand up and stop this madness. We, the West, can't do more to that end than we are already doing. Sadly most attempts are crushed by propaganda and media shutdows.
Putin is destroying your country's future.
There was no one in Europe that was a threat to Russia. NATO was never an existential threat. Everyone was fine doing business with Russia, except some human rights organisations.
And now? Putin has managed to make the Western world see Russia as an existential threat.
What goes around comes around.
People of Moscow. Arm yourselves. Dismantle your police, overwhelm your anti-riot squads, send home your government officials, fight your military that won't join you. Turn Moscow into a Kyiv style guerilla city and bring the rise of a new Russia.
People of Siberia. Set free and arm your prisoners.
Post by: Il Palazzo on April 12, 2022, 03:36:07 am
Post by: martinuzz on April 12, 2022, 03:46:22 am
I'd be content with demilitarization, but it would only be possible if Putin is overthrown from the inside, due to nukes; thus the West must spread anti-government rhetoric on Russian websites to speed that up, incite revolts and anti-police violence, and arm any rebels that crop up.Also, just doing as she asked.
The only just outcome to this war is Putin facing the wall. Or getting torn apart by a crowd. Or getting guillotined. I wouldn't settle for life imprisonment, only his death can satisfy me.
Sometimes a small bloodbath is nescessary to prevent a much larger bloodbath. As long as the net loss of life is decreased, it is justifiable.
I am open to any suggestion for a Russian revolt that does not involve civil war
Post by: Il Palazzo on April 12, 2022, 03:54:16 am
Post by: martinuzz on April 12, 2022, 03:56:08 am
The real Russian websites are too heavily censored.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 12, 2022, 04:08:08 am
People of Moscow. Arm yourselves. Kill your police, kill your anti-riot squads, kill your government officials, kill your military that won't join you. Turn Moscow into a Kyiv style guerilla city and bring the rise of a new Russia.
As a guy, who indirectly participated in 2 revolutions, I can say that you don't understand what it takes to revolt against an autocracy. Even the first step of your plan (arming yourself) is damn hard. Weapons don't grow on trees.
I can write essays about the idiocy and immorality of Russian liberal(ish) opposition ("Smart Voting" is the height of stupidity as far as anti-dictatorship resistance goes) and had they acted differently during the last decades then many people would be still alive. Now, they don't have resources...
Also, you want people to jump several levels of escalation. Typical revolutions go this way.
1) Peaceful protests. If those are ignored and\or people are unlawfully arrested
2) Peaceful protests with serious disruption (blocking roads, strikes, even minor vandalism) and peaceful methods of resisting arrests . If the government responds with violence go
3) More protests, violent resistance to unlawful arrest, more serious disruption. If the government responds with tear gas and sticks
4) Time for Molotovs and bricks. And then, if and only if, the government answers with lethal force
5) Arm yourself
Russian opposition never reached 2. Let's let them get there first.
Also, it is unethical to DEMAND from anyone to go and die as a hero.
P.S. calling for violence, for literal terrorism is something that can get you permabanned on this forum. (See the moderation log)
Post by: martinuzz on April 12, 2022, 04:13:14 am
I'd be content with demilitarization, but it would only be possible if Putin is overthrown from the inside, due to nukes; thus the West must spread anti-government rhetoric on Russian websites to speed that up, incite revolts and anti-police violence, and arm any rebels that crop up.I just mirrored her request.
The only just outcome to this war is Putin facing the wall. Or getting torn apart by a crowd. Or getting guillotined. I wouldn't settle for life imprisonment, only his death can satisfy me.
But yeah you're right. Russian opposition never made it to 2)
Russian government made it to 4) though. They have killed opposition and critics.
Also, taking up arms against an oppressive autocrat regime is not terrorism.
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 12, 2022, 04:15:59 am
I said preferably not, but I am very aware that ending WW2 (at least, Japan) took 2 nukes.Well for once I agree with Strongpoint. And something I brought up in the old thread is that there's not yet a critical mass of people willing to revolt, even if others want the government to fall but are scared of getting arrested. If there were more protests then I'd protest. I'd violently protest even. None in my region anyways so far, because it's so far from Moscow or St. Pete's so I couldn't do anything anyways.
And yes, it would be best if Russians overthrew Putin and revolted. But you're wrong if you say that's up to the West to incite.
It's up to you (not you, the person, you, the Russian people). You already had more than 40 days since this war started to stand up and stop this madness. We, the West, can't do more to that end than we are already doing. Sadly most attempts are crushed by propaganda and media shutdows.
Putin is destroying your country's future.
There was no one in Europe that was a threat to Russia. NATO was never an existential threat. Everyone was fine doing business with Russia, except some human rights organisations.
And now? Putin has managed to make the Western world see Russia as an existential threat.
What goes around comes around.
People of Moscow. Arm yourselves. Kill your police, kill your anti-riot squads, kill your government officials, kill your military that won't join you. Turn Moscow into a Kyiv style guerilla city and bring the rise of a new Russia.
People of Siberia. Set free and arm your prisoners.
Western incitement would possibly push that critical mass over the edge. Won't hurt to do it anyways, such lowkey cyberwarfare is basically free.
Post by: martinuzz on April 12, 2022, 04:18:29 am
Western incitement would possibly push that critical mass over the edge. Won't hurt to do it anyways, such lowkey cyberwarfare is basically free.We are already doing that
EDIT: oops I accidentally deleted the rest of this post trying to copy paste the above and pressing save.
I wish we lived in a world where wars could be ended with hugs, flowers and kisses, and authroritorian governments toppled by love.
Sadly, that world does not exist.
Post by: brewer bob on April 12, 2022, 05:53:45 am
I'd like to add that it's possible for small groups of insurrectionists to reach points 4 and 5 without a mass movement, but without a large enough popular movement to back them up and support them, they'll eventually loose the support and get crushed (armed left-wing groups like the Red Army Faction as one example).
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 12, 2022, 08:40:30 am
Post by: Strongpoint on April 12, 2022, 09:58:03 am
But then...
"Go on, rape Ukrainian women, just don't tell me. Understand? So that I won't know anything. Yes, I permit it. Use protection" Direct quote from a Russian wife talking to her husband. With giggles between the words.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 12, 2022, 10:15:31 am
Post by: brewer bob on April 12, 2022, 02:12:21 pm
Russia moves military equipment including missile systems towards Finnish border.
___________
A great strategic move, Putin! You absolutely need those to scare Finland away from joining NATO. It is how it works! Also, you absolutely don't need your logistics elsewhere!
Yeah, the support for joining NATO was really low in Finland prior to the war, somewhere around 30%. When the war began, it practically instantly rose to over 50%.
I've been against NATO since my late teens when I began to follow world politics and got involved in grassroots social movements. I still don't think it's a club of particularly nice guys (I'm pointing at you Erdogan), but I have to admit that of two bad choices, not joining NATO seems like a worse thing. I'm still undecided, maybe leaning a bit towards joining. The same sentiment is shared by lots of left-leaning folks, who had a strong stance against NATO before. Even many who consider themselves radical leftists have changed their mind. Strange times, indeed.
Regardless, join or not, what I'd hope is that Finland allies itself more closely with other Baltic countries.
Great work Putin for making joining NATO sound like the sensible thing to do.
Post by: JoshuaFH on April 12, 2022, 04:55:13 pm
Post by: brewer bob on April 12, 2022, 05:21:25 pm
What's so wrong with joining NATO?
For me? Mainly boils down to not wanting to be in league with human rights violators. Turkey's wars against the Kurds, as one example.
(Edit: I don't mean to say that Finland doesn't have its problems with respecting human rights, like forced sterilization of people wishing to reassign their legal gender, (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Finland#Transgender_and_intersex_rights) imprisoning conscientious objectors, arms exports to undemocratic countries, violating Sámi political rights, etc.)
Post by: eerr on April 12, 2022, 05:49:28 pm
-A rantThis is hate speech and rabble rousing, I don't care if it's justified, get it out of here.
you shouldn't organize a rebellion on bay12.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 12, 2022, 06:27:05 pm
-A rantThis is hate speech and rabble rousing, I don't care if it's justified, get it out of here.
you shouldn't organize a rebellion on bay12.
I think the situation with martinuzz has been resolved.
We should all strive to avoid responding to each other, as that tends to make the emotions even hotter.
It's a hard time for all of us, and much harder on the Ukrainians.
We should strive to support and accept one another in these difficult times.
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 12, 2022, 09:53:27 pm
Piss off. This wasn't the right place because it won't reach many Russians at all, is what my complaint was.-A rantThis is hate speech and rabble rousing, I don't care if it's justified, get it out of here.
you shouldn't organize a rebellion on bay12.
Hatespeech against who? Putin's cronies? Fuck them, I wanna see them get taken to court or simply summarily executed.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 13, 2022, 02:02:51 am
Dear Vatican... How can I explain that it is a BAD idea? It is a very wrong message. I'd even say an insulting one.
Ukrainians and Russians are not equal sides of some conflict that needs to be resolved. It is quite similar to urging a rapist and their victim to reconcile their differences
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 13, 2022, 03:12:27 am
If it was a government official then yea it's an insult. No point in doing that.
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 13, 2022, 03:52:06 am
OK. I thought those intercepted calls of Russian soldiers talking with their families won't bring anything that would disgust me more than anything I already heard before.I had to look this up and this shit seems genuine (https://www.businessinsider.com/audio-shows-russian-soldiers-discuss-killing-raping-ukrainians-cnn-2022-4?r=US&IR=T)
But then...
"Go on, rape Ukrainian women, just don't tell me. Understand? So that I won't know anything. Yes, I permit it. Use protection" Direct quote from a Russian wife talking to her husband. With giggles between the words.
Quote from: https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/russian-soldiers-admit-eating-dogs-raping-ukrainian-women-intercepted-calls-1699188
In one of the audio clips released by the SSU, a man could be heard saying:" We have three tank guys here. They raped a girl." A woman then responds and asks "who did?" To which the man says: "She was 16 years old."You can't even say it was some isolated case. That's an entire tank crew acting in concert in full view of other servicemen, and it sounds like this is just an accepted practice that it is ok to kill, rape and steal from civilians
The woman then goes on to ask if the man speaking in the local language was talking about "our guys," to which he says "yep."
Post by: Strongpoint on April 13, 2022, 05:05:59 am
French President Emmanuel Macron said: “I would be careful with such terms today because these two peoples (Russians and Ukrainians) are brothers.”
*double facepalm*
And then you understand that the only alternative to this guy is Le Pen...
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 13, 2022, 05:19:42 am
In other interesting news, Syrian doctors have flown to Ukraine to teach Ukrainian doctors how to treat chemical weapons victims (https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220412-syrian-survivors-of-russian-tactics-offer-ukrainians-expertise-guidance)... Just in case
Post by: heydude6 on April 13, 2022, 05:25:59 am
This is what happens when you don’t crack down on foreign powers when they try to buy your politicians everyone!
Post by: Strongpoint on April 13, 2022, 09:33:54 am
Well it depends, maybe they deliberately picked an opposition member.
It makes no difference whatsoever. Even if this opposition member is someone fighting against the Russian army in Ukraine, the message is still wrong.
Post by: martinuzz on April 13, 2022, 04:37:49 pm
Western incitement would possibly push that critical mass over the edge. Won't hurt to do it anyways, such lowkey cyberwarfare is basically free.
relevant: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/13/us/politics/russia-propaganda-ukraine-war.html
Post by: EuchreJack on April 13, 2022, 10:22:44 pm
I approve of this development! Unleash the info! Some of it might be accurate, maybe even cover the stuff that "more official" stories miss.
Post by: martinuzz on April 14, 2022, 02:50:01 am
New York Times is not a tabloid. It's one of the three major US newspapers (NYTimes, WaPo and WSJ)
New York Post is a tabloid.
Same with Washington Post (not tabloid) vs Washington Times (tabloid)
Post by: Quarque on April 14, 2022, 03:06:23 am
As the north pole ice cap is about to disappear and sea levels are rising.
As we need to find a way to not depend on limited resources, like, yesterday.
As the last sea turtle is choking on a piece of plastic.
As the last sharks are hunted down to turn them into expensive tasteless soup.
As our population has exploded to the point where 95% of mammal biomass is now humans and their cows/pigs/chickens.
What are we doing to solve our problems? Hating each other and fighting a new war, which will quite possibly rock us back into the stone age, if not outright extinction. Well fucking done, humanity. My cynical side is starting to feel that maybe it is for the best that we do nuke ourselves into oblivion. Another part of me is still in denial of what is happening.
This clip captures perfectly how I am feeling. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_nkQoSgN7k&t=1s&ab_channel=Shout%21Factory
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 14, 2022, 03:42:29 am
Post by: Quarque on April 14, 2022, 04:29:05 am
It is horrible, but as my philosophy is basically human-centric, I can't support the extinction of humanity, even if it saves other species.
To be clear, me neither. I was venting my darkest feelings there, not expressing what I seriously think.
On the bright side of things, events in Ukraine have been a wake-up call for me to stop sleepwalking through life, to get into action and help build a future. See if there is some community working on a 100% sustainable way of life and join it.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 14, 2022, 04:37:15 am
It is horrible, but as my philosophy is basically human-centric, I can't support the extinction of humanity, even if it saves other species.
There will be no extinction. I can't imagine a single man-made event that won't leave enough people to reproduce. Even in case of full nuclear exchange, there will be places with human populations with DNA pools of sufficient size.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 14, 2022, 02:41:35 pm
Please don't join a cult. Usually the cult leader is kinda ugly and insists on sleeping with everyone.It is horrible, but as my philosophy is basically human-centric, I can't support the extinction of humanity, even if it saves other species.
To be clear, me neither. I was venting my darkest feelings there, not expressing what I seriously think.
On the bright side of things, events in Ukraine have been a wake-up call for me to stop sleepwalking through life, to get into action and help build a future. See if there is some community working on a 100% sustainable way of life and join it.
Transforming that into a positive, you should instead strive to make your existing community work to be closer to 100% sustainable.
....
BBC reports that Ukraine fears children taken to Russia might be subjected to child trafficking.Spoiler: from BBC live updates (click to show/hide)
No duh. They're just now figuring out that the whole point of the Russians taking Ukrainian children is so they can give them to childless Russian Oligarchs/Bureaucrats/Generals?
Post by: martinuzz on April 14, 2022, 04:01:07 pm
Here's the news about it from BBC:Hurray!Quote from: BBCMoskva warship has sunk - Russian state media
Russia's defence ministry says its Moskva missile ship has sunk, state media is reporting.
Ukraine says it carried out a strike on the vessel, while Russia claims ammunition on board blew up.
"During the towing of the Moskva cruiser to the port of destination, due to damage to the hull received during the fire from the detonation of ammunition, the ship lost stability," the Russian military department said in a statement.
"In the conditions of stormy seas, the ship sank," it added.
Now that's a costly loss. Those things take years to build
Post by: EuchreJack on April 14, 2022, 04:17:13 pm
A bit of good news and deserved vengeance. Here is to plenty of future "ammunition accidents"!Here's the news about it from BBC:Hurray!Quote from: BBCMoskva warship has sunk - Russian state media
Russia's defence ministry says its Moskva missile ship has sunk, state media is reporting.
Ukraine says it carried out a strike on the vessel, while Russia claims ammunition on board blew up.
"During the towing of the Moskva cruiser to the port of destination, due to damage to the hull received during the fire from the detonation of ammunition, the ship lost stability," the Russian military department said in a statement.
"In the conditions of stormy seas, the ship sank," it added.
Now that's a costly loss. Those things take years to build
Post by: Grim Portent on April 14, 2022, 04:28:46 pm
Post by: Ganondworf on April 14, 2022, 04:50:58 pm
I find myself surprised at the way Russia wants to be viewed when they claim things like 'ammunition detonations' sunk one of their warships. Surely it's better optics to be sunk by enemy action than by carelessness or poor maintenance. 'Course I'm not an oligarchic dictator, so my perspective is probably skewed on which looks better.
Well, accidents can happen even to the best, while looking vulnerable to an inferior enemy is to be avoided at all costs. The oligarchic dictator rules by being the stronkest man in da hood. Appearing weak means competitors will try to challenge him.
Surely you remember all the "manliest of men" pictures Putin likes to promote his manliness?
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 14, 2022, 05:01:25 pm
I find myself surprised at the way Russia wants to be viewed when they claim things like 'ammunition detonations' sunk one of their warships. Surely it's better optics to be sunk by enemy action than by carelessness or poor maintenance. 'Course I'm not an oligarchic dictator, so my perspective is probably skewed on which looks better.This is the same President who didn't mobilise hospitals because then it'd look like they expected casualties or refused foreign sub rescue teams because then their crisis would look like a crisis
Seems like they just always take the laziest excuse because they know even if the lie is obvious, loyalists will accept the lie and anyone who doesn't tow the line is marked as a dissident
Post by: Starver on April 14, 2022, 07:02:07 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on April 14, 2022, 09:18:34 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on April 14, 2022, 11:06:08 pm
Post by: Starver on April 15, 2022, 07:09:36 am
Russia says it will hit Kyiv with bombs and rocket attacks in revenge for the 'terrorist sabotage attacks on Russia'....well, that ship has sailed. And now been sunk, I suppose.
(More seriously, could it be a casus (post-)belli... "Of course there's missile damage, we had to launch that attack due to the unprovoked attack by Ukraine." Spun through the usual "We have always (not) been at war with..." revisionism.)
Post by: Strongpoint on April 15, 2022, 10:00:44 am
Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov: “If Ukraine continues its provocations by attacking Russian cities, Russia will be forced to declare war"
IMO, Russia may need a declaration of war only for two purposes - General mobilization or use of nukes.
Also, expect a false flag operation with many civilian casualties
____________
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1514941186397683715 Ukraine is winning the trolling war :D
Post by: EuchreJack on April 15, 2022, 05:37:42 pm
The real question is whether the targets are valid military targets, such as manufacturing, infrastructure, etc. Or just pure civilian targets.
Not that I believe the reports are anything other than false flag operations by Russia.
Going back, the report about the fuel dump in Russia being destroyed was probably just the Russian military hiding that they already sold the fuel on the black market.
Post by: Vector on April 15, 2022, 07:13:00 pm
I finally got some donation links from him. PM me if you want to be passed the information.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 17, 2022, 07:28:31 pm
BBC reports that one more Russian general is dead.Spoiler: from BBC live updates (click to show/hide)
Post by: brewer bob on April 18, 2022, 11:44:35 am
Putin Decorates Army Unit That Ukraine Blames for Bucha Deaths (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-18/putin-decorates-army-unit-that-ukraine-blames-for-bucha-deaths)
Quote from: Bloomberg News
Citing “mass heroism and valor” but making no mention of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the decree Putin signed Monday awarded the 64th Motorized Infantry Brigade the honorary title of Guards.
This is utterly disgusting. I fucking hate Putin. Miserable piece of fecal matter.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 18, 2022, 04:11:18 pm
Alternatively, he needs to pin metals on able bodied soldiers so they will return to the front instead of disband.
Post by: brewer bob on April 18, 2022, 05:27:13 pm
It is basically an admission of guilt by Putin that he ordered the war crimes.
Yeah, it's like he's whining "But others commit atrocities too! Why shouldn't I?"
Post by: Starver on April 19, 2022, 03:10:15 pm
According to the Guardian, Russia has deployed ~20000cannon foddermercenaries in Donbas.Quote from: The Guardian[...]
I've always[1] wondered what sort of guarantee a mercenary gets that his death is never in vain. Is he paid fully in advance, lest he cop it in battle and whatever paycheck/death-in-service payment (that he hopes will go to the recipients of his estate) be defaulted on or improperly skimmed off by some paymaster? If he is paid in advance, what guarantee is there that he doesn't pull his punches or do the military equivalent of carrying random-and-meaningless bits of paper around the office to only appear to be busy doing the assigned job? If it's half-and-half thing, either outcome is likely (even if only half as inconvenient to the wronged party, possibly both halves at once though!) and escrow accounts rely upon yet more trusted paymaster-types to properly activate as and when they ought to be (and only then!).
What I'm saying, here, is that I don't think Russia will necessarily have to pay for 20k mercenaries, at the end of the day. I'm not sure if those directly affected will have much to say about it, but it might still have repurcussions unless they are even more ruthless in dealing with any third-party complainants.
[1] Well, certainly since well before the Austin Powers films highlighted the homelife of the average mooks and goons.
Post by: nenjin on April 19, 2022, 03:14:34 pm
Post by: Nirur Torir on April 19, 2022, 03:20:45 pm
Post by: heydude6 on April 19, 2022, 03:22:20 pm
Mercenaries were famously known to be unreliable as a result of that. Frequently changing sides when the other team offered a better bribe, holding onto captured territory and essentially ransoming it to the guys who paid them to capture it in the first place, and sometimes refusing to show up for battles entirely.
The only time you could trust a mercenary was when they vastly outclassed the enemy they were paid to fight, like in Syria.
From what I’ve heard, calling the Wagner group mercenaries is a bit of a misnomer. They’re more like Putin’s private army rather than an army who goes to the highest bidder. Kinda like Hitler’s brown army.
Still, I feel like this war might cause them question this devotion. Especially if they know anything about what’s actually going on.
Post by: nenjin on April 19, 2022, 03:26:06 pm
If Putin is planning to just send 20k mercs at Donbass with rifles he.....may not get what he bargained for.
Post by: brewer bob on April 19, 2022, 04:07:18 pm
(Another article said that a Russian Wagner fighter had been paid $2100 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60711211) for a months work.)
Post by: EuchreJack on April 19, 2022, 04:18:26 pm
Their motivation to do their job is twofold:
1) The Russians are providing their only way home.
2) The Russians can utterly destroy them with their tanks. Hence no armor or heavy weapons support.
Honestly, they almost sound like slave soldiers. I wonder about the recruitment tactics.
If some guy shows up with 10 Syrians, I bet the Wagner group would pay them $70,000 no questions asked.
The real concern is that if Russia is using mercenaries, Ukraine needs to use mercenaries or risk running out of manpower.
Considering many European Nations still use some form of mandatory conscription, it shouldn't be hard for Ukraine to find soldiers for cash.
Post by: Il Palazzo on April 19, 2022, 04:29:01 pm
Also, light infantry has its uses. Just because the mercs are not serving in armoured units doesn't mean they're some useless cannon fodder.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 19, 2022, 04:43:21 pm
Useful cannon fodder seem to be what one of the articles was saying.
Post by: Starver on April 19, 2022, 07:43:47 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on April 19, 2022, 08:26:12 pm
If those mercs are low-qualified idiots with minimal training... really not muchI don't think Ukraine is at risk of running out of manpower any time soon. It's a Russian problem. Ukraine has mobilised, Russia still hasn't (since it stubbornly insists it ain't fighting a war).
Also, light infantry has its uses. Just because the mercs are not serving in armoured units doesn't mean they're some useless cannon fodder.
Currently, recruitment offices send volunteers with no prior military experience home with "we'll call you later if you'll be needed now go and contribute to the economy".
Ukraine has also canceled the spring draft, seeing no need for a bunch of untrained youngsters.
If manpower would be a problem, we would see a quite different picture.
Post by: heydude6 on April 19, 2022, 08:50:53 pm
When you're in a bubble like this one it's easy to believe everyone feels the same way as you do, but I turned on the news today, saw that Ukraine wasn't mentioned at all while Russia is attempting it's biggest and most important battle yet, and I'm genuinely terrified that the West is going to give this story the 2014 Crimea treatment!
Please tell me this isn't the case...
Post by: Starver on April 20, 2022, 04:00:04 am
It's not going away, though we are letting our newsreaders (some of whom are presenting programmes from Kiev, etc[2]) tell us about other things, obviously.
Spoiler: This bit is a bit rambling, as I jump into one particular rabbithole... (click to show/hide)
)So, neither gone nor forgotten. No doubt there's some news-fatigue for various individuals, and the shock of the initial invasion is worn off, but it is displacing other news still (to those important subjects' disbenefit, some might say, but that's the tragedy of finite room to focus on things.
I can't speak for your chosen bubble being conspicuously empty of what you think should be there, but it's showing up in mine, in amongst the usual local "how the British government is broken" stuff. Or as a twofer: The report yesterday/whenever about the small village that had collectively applied to house a number (16?) of Ukrainian families fleeing the war, but the beaurocracy set up to administer this had so far managed to make just one of these offers happen.
[1] And mostly radio, due to the way I mostly participate in the broadcast experience. i.e. Radio 4 (with plenty of news/contemporary documentaries/etc to keep me going) and Radio 4 Extra (for repeated classic comedy/drama stuff that is more likely to include the sinking of the Bismark as a hot topic subject...)
[2] You can see Clive Myrie "Live from Kiev", then soon after watch him host the Celebrity Mastermind knowledge-quiz... Naturally, it's clear that one of these is pre-recorded months ago. Some may argue which one, of course!
Post by: EuchreJack on April 20, 2022, 06:23:36 am
Thankfully, most Americans are very interested in the War, so American Media makes sure to mention it periodically.
The older/conservative bars I frequent usually bring up the War in Ukraine at least once, so again the American People are interested.
Thanks for giving me something to report on.
Post by: brewer bob on April 20, 2022, 02:13:56 pm
Uh huh. And wasn't it Il Palazzo who was so vehemently admonishing us for sensationalizing the war or daring to suggest that the depraved murderers might possibly continue their depraved murder using bunker-buster bombs or might commit genocide. Funny how well that aged isn't it.Yes, it has aged well. And it is going to continue to age well, since it was in no way contingent on any of the claims thrown around ever turning factual.
And I don't see how they have. Like, ffs. If true (and we're unlikely to ever know), this is not genocide by any definition. It's a gross disregard for civilian collateral damage. It's horrible, horrifying, despicable, unjustifiable - but not any more than the entire war from the get go, ever since it was decided that killing a percentage of Ukrainians is an acceptable price for some vague political gains.
While there isn't currently consensus on whether genocide is happening in Ukraine or not, and evidence isn't enough, there is evidence of killings based on Ukrainian identity and the rhetoric from Moscow is tipping over into genocidal intent (remember that article 'What Russia should do with Ukraine?' (https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64) from the state-owned RIA?).
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 20, 2022, 02:18:40 pm
The Ukrainian army has thus far done a stellar job of defending, with grit, ATGMs and bayraktars. Yet to secure the kind of peace deal their leadership desires, they need to do more than hold onto defensive positions - they need to attack. I think the thought experiment for me at least is not whether the Ukrainians will launch a counter-assault, but when they will do it, and what that will look like. Will this result in the largest tank battle in European history since WWII? Or will we see a new form of warfare, as was witnessed in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict?
Post by: nenjin on April 20, 2022, 02:56:11 pm
Uh huh. And wasn't it Il Palazzo who was so vehemently admonishing us for sensationalizing the war or daring to suggest that the depraved murderers might possibly continue their depraved murder using bunker-buster bombs or might commit genocide. Funny how well that aged isn't it.Yes, it has aged well. And it is going to continue to age well, since it was in no way contingent on any of the claims thrown around ever turning factual.
And I don't see how they have. Like, ffs. If true (and we're unlikely to ever know), this is not genocide by any definition. It's a gross disregard for civilian collateral damage. It's horrible, horrifying, despicable, unjustifiable - but not any more than the entire war from the get go, ever since it was decided that killing a percentage of Ukrainians is an acceptable price for some vague political gains.
But you know what, go nuts. Cry wolf every day. I'm not going to spend time trying to teach you how to think straight just so that you can stop hating on the Russians a little more than they probably deserve.
When Russia's own propaganda machine is using phrases like "Ukraine cannot exist", how can you then criticize people who read that and draw completely natural conclusions from it?
Put another way, what would Russia have to do to meet that threshold? They've said it. They've done it. At what point does "complete disregard for civilian causalities" become "genocide"?
NGL, it reads like you simply can't countenance it. Or that you expect Holocaust levels of organization around it before you'll deign to admit it's happening.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 20, 2022, 03:01:28 pm
Quoting from the War in Ukraine news (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=179709.msg8368753#msg8368753) thread:Uh huh. And wasn't it Il Palazzo who was so vehemently admonishing us for sensationalizing the war or daring to suggest that the depraved murderers might possibly continue their depraved murder using bunker-buster bombs or might commit genocide. Funny how well that aged isn't it.Yes, it has aged well. And it is going to continue to age well, since it was in no way contingent on any of the claims thrown around ever turning factual.
And I don't see how they have. Like, ffs. If true (and we're unlikely to ever know), this is not genocide by any definition. It's a gross disregard for civilian collateral damage. It's horrible, horrifying, despicable, unjustifiable - but not any more than the entire war from the get go, ever since it was decided that killing a percentage of Ukrainians is an acceptable price for some vague political gains.
While there isn't currently consensus on whether genocide is happening in Ukraine or not, and evidence isn't enough, there is evidence of killings based on Ukrainian identity and the rhetoric from Moscow is tipping over into genocidal intent (remember that article 'What Russia should do with Ukraine?' (https://medium.com/@kravchenko_mm/what-should-russia-do-with-ukraine-translation-of-a-propaganda-article-by-a-russian-journalist-a3e92e3cb64) from the state-owned RIA?).
Personally, I think there is evidence of actual genocide. I am willing to use that term.
The definition I have found is "the deliberate killing of a large number of people from a particular nation or ethnic group with the aim of destroying that nation or group"
That seems to be occurring in the War in Ukraine. The Russians are deliberately killing large numbers of Ukrainians in an attempt to destroy Ukraine.
The mass graves, the elimination of fleeing civilians. Unless that evidence has been refuted, then genocide is being committed by Russia.
But that is my opinion.
Everyone lay off Il Palazzo before you get this thread locked/shut down.
He's entitled to his opinion, even if it may be incorrect.
Or, maybe, you know, actually talk to the guy rather than attacking him?
Post by: nenjin on April 20, 2022, 03:11:32 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 20, 2022, 03:21:37 pm
Uh huh. And wasn't it Il Palazzo who was so vehemently admonishing us for sensationalizing the war or daring to suggest that the depraved murderers might possibly continue their depraved murder using bunker-buster bombs or might commit genocide. Funny how well that aged isn't it.Yes, it has aged well. And it is going to continue to age well, since it was in no way contingent on any of the claims thrown around ever turning factual.
And I don't see how they have. Like, ffs. If true (and we're unlikely to ever know), this is not genocide by any definition. It's a gross disregard for civilian collateral damage. It's horrible, horrifying, despicable, unjustifiable - but not any more than the entire war from the get go, ever since it was decided that killing a percentage of Ukrainians is an acceptable price for some vague political gains.
Mass killing deliberately civilians between 18-60 in a village is genocide. Mass rapes of women is genocide. Abducting and relocating children to the other country is specifically and explicitly declared genocide in the UN Convention on Genocide. What, exactly, other atrocities are you waiting for? It is genocide. Your complaining has proven to be nonsense. Stop with the pearl-clutching. The devil doesn't need another advocate.
Post by: Il Palazzo on April 20, 2022, 04:03:17 pm
NGL, it reads like you simply can't countenance it. Or that you expect Holocaust levels of organization around it before you'll deign to admit it's happening.Not in terms of organisation, but scale and deliberation. When the Germans invaded Poland a while back, they would indiscriminately bomb civilian targets, and brutally pacify occupied towns by rounding up random people and executing them on the spot. They professed that Poland should not exist. They enslaved Poles, treated them as untermenschen, tortured them, murdered them, and were generally trigger-happy around the local populace. In the end, 10% of the ethnic Polish population died as a result of the war.
But it was not genocide.
When another 10% of Poles, those of Jewish ethnicity, were rounded up and murdered with the intent of ethnic cleansing - that was genocide.
We can't go around calling every war, brutal as it might be, genocidal. It dilutes the meaning of the word.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 20, 2022, 04:13:44 pm
NGL, it reads like you simply can't countenance it. Or that you expect Holocaust levels of organization around it before you'll deign to admit it's happening.Not in terms of organisation, but scale and deliberation. When the Germans invaded Poland a while back, they would indiscriminately bomb civilian targets, and brutally pacify occupied towns by rounding up random people and executing them on the spot. They professed that Poland should not exist. They enslaved Poles, treated them as untermenschen, tortured them, murdered them, and were generally trigger-happy around the local populace. In the end, 10% of the ethnic Polish population died as a result of the war.
But it was not genocide.
When another 10% of Poles, those of Jewish ethnicity, were rounded up and murdered with the intent of ethnic cleansing - that was genocide.
We can't go around calling every war, brutal as it might be, genocidal. It dilutes the meaning of the word.
So...the genocide against your people wasn't recognized, so you are reluctant to recognize the genocide against Ukraine. I get that. An appropriate emotional response.
Post by: heydude6 on April 20, 2022, 04:28:02 pm
Or that you expect Holocaust levels of organization around it before you'll deign to admit it's happening.
At least you’re honest.
So here’s a fun fact, the holocaust was a one of kind thing. An operation of that scale, organization and brutality had never been done before and possibly never will be done again. It is the king of genocides, not the stereotypical genocide.
If you look into things like the Armenian genocide, and the Ugyr genocide, you will find them disappointingly tame if you use the Holocaust as your model, but they are still unacceptable crimes against humanity and the UN classifies them as such..
You could argue that Putin genuinely isn’t genociding Ukrainians right now, but a lot of us are afraid that once he achieves a foothold in the country that he will.
Hitler had no intention of stopping at the Jews. In his own words he viewed Slavs as filthy “half-breeds” that also didn’t have a place in this world. Why did he throw away his chances of victory at the obviously suicidal operation “Barabaroosa” if not for blind fanaticism and ideological consistency. Poland would have been next.
Wolfenstein the New Order went soft on their depiction of Nazi occupation. In reality, barely any of us would be left.
Post by: nenjin on April 20, 2022, 04:58:15 pm
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It is the king of genocides, not the stereotypical genocide.
Quote
We can't go around calling every war, brutal as it might be, genocidal. It dilutes the meaning of the word.
This is the disconnect. Does it have to be the King of Genocide before the world decides they have to actually intervene, at the cost of their own safety and prosperity?
It's genocide to me, by Russia's own admission. Not "the most genocide" but well beyond the normal brutality of warfare. If this was *just* a war of conquest with Syria-levels of brutality, that'd be one thing, horrifying enough. But Russia in their bid to justify the war has gone completely overboard, in an effort to popularize their war domestically. I say we take them exactly at their own word.
Post by: Il Palazzo on April 20, 2022, 05:00:42 pm
Hitler had no intention of stopping at the Jews. In his own words he viewed Slavs as filthy “half-breeds” that also didn’t have a place in this world. Why did he throw away his chances of victory at the obviously suicidal operation “Barabaroosa” if not for blind fanaticism and ideological consistency. Poland would have been next.Possibly. Or the enslaved population would remain as a subservient caste. But it would be genocide against the Slavs only once the actual cleansing had started. As it were, it was a brutal, dystopian, oppressive occupation and exploitation. But not genocide.
So...the genocide against your people wasn't recognized, so you are reluctant to recognize the genocide against Ukraine. I get that. An appropriate emotional response.I'm pretty sure I'm coming at this from a 'words have meaning' angle, not 'that should be called a genocide too and now I'm mad' one.
It's like this is the first war people get to look at closely, without sanitising filters of remoteness, and they can't contextualise what they see in any other way than to go for the most extreme comparison. I'm wondering what words will they reach for should actual genocide start ('I was right all along' would not be logically correct).
What is triggering my emotions is this whole conversation around the word. It's like it has become a pass code for group membership. Either one agrees there's genocide in Ukraine, or one's shilling for Putin. Either with us or against us. Macron doesn't want to call it genocide - he can't possibly have any point, he's just 100% Putin's bitch. I don't think this is genocide - I'm defending(!) Putin. Like, wt actual f.
Post by: Robsoie on April 20, 2022, 05:09:47 pm
The UN has a page about their definition of genocide :
https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml
Quote
In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:
-Killing members of the group;
-Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
-Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
-Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
-Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.
If you stop there, Russia is committing a genocide according to the UN definition.
But you'll need to read more, because according to the UN, what makes the difference between war crimes and genocide is the intent :
Quote
The intent is the most difficult element to determine. To constitute genocide, there must be a proven intent on the part of perpetrators to physically destroy a national, ethnical, racial or religious group. Cultural destruction does not suffice, nor does an intention to simply disperse a group. It is this special intent, or dolus specialis, that makes the crime of genocide so unique. In addition, case law has associated intent with the existence of a State or organizational plan or policy, even if the definition of genocide in international law does not include that element.
Importantly, the victims of genocide are deliberately targeted - not randomly – because of their real or perceived membership of one of the four groups protected under the Convention (which excludes political groups, for example). This means that the target of destruction must be the group, as such, and not its members as individuals. Genocide can also be committed against only a part of the group, as long as that part is identifiable (including within a geographically limited area) and “substantial.”
By example, the Russia official propaganda makes it looks like there is an actual intent as shown in that article from the RIA Novostni (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RIA_Novosti) "What to do with Ukraine" : https://ria.ru/20220403/ukraina-1781469605.html that there are translation floating all around (and that you can google translate, as it does a surprising good job at staying understandable this article)
But despite the article is very clear and show an intent it is still not a proof of intent simply because that can be denied by Russia as a government and point that's just Timofei Sergeyev (the author of that article) own views.
Basically it's the same as in a tribunal trying to prove the criminal is guilty with so many things from accusation or defense constantly blurrying arguments, and adding the various nations own interests getting in the way , having a genocide recognized internationally may prove to be very difficult, case in point the Armenia genocide by the Ottoman empire that even today only 33 UN members formally recognize it ...
Post by: nenjin on April 20, 2022, 05:29:11 pm
What is triggering my emotions is this whole conversation around the word. It's like it has become a pass code for group membership. Either one agrees there's genocide in Ukraine, or one's shilling for Putin. Either with us or against us. Macron doesn't want to call it genocide - he can't possibly have any point, he's just 100% Putin's bitch. I don't think this is genocide - I'm defending(!) Putin. Like, wt actual f.
I don't think you're shilling for Russia just because you don't agree with the G word. But again, I ask you, where is your line? Stop talking about what isn't genocide and start talking about what is, so people understand your position. To do otherwise is to set yourself up to be painted as a shill.
Because it seems like you're placing the line so far away that by the time it's reached, it's pointless because Ukraine is gone and/or enslaved.
Quote
But despite the article is very clear and show an intent it is still not a proof of intent simply because that can be denied by Russia as a government and point that's just Timofei Sergeyev (the author of that article) own views.
Similarly: Russia has already clearly demonstrated they will act in bad faith. Do one thing and claim they didn't. If what was in that article wasn't reflective of their policy, why has it not been refuted? Is it not from an official Russian news agency? If they have an official news agency, and it says something, is it not reflective of policy? Does Russia have an official news agency that allows op-eds? Clearly not, because people get put in fucking jail for saying anything the government doesn't like.
So again. The line some people are drawing for what constitutes G versus just really shitty war, i.e. what we should deal with using normal diplomatic, non-world war starting maneuvers vs. "ok, no, fuck this", seems like a cop out on having to take a stance. What are we supposed to do? Wait for all of Ukraine to be gone before we call it G, or wait for the Russian government to officially say "Yep, we're doin G"?
The fact a first world nation is conqueroring a weaker nation for economic reasons, while stating a fabricated raison de guerre, and the whole world is sitting around watching it happen on Youtube, is fucking appalling already. To stand by and do nothing while they execute citizens in the street, block by block, and bomb them out of or into their shelters, is beyond the pale. Why are they in shelters still? Oh right, Russia bombed evacuation corridors they said they wouldn't.
So when someone then goes on to quibble about the word while the reality plays out, understandably, gets some people upset and likely to question your motivations. Maybe that's not fair. But then neither is what's happening in Ukraine.
Post by: Lord Shonus on April 20, 2022, 05:45:07 pm
I've been doing a big thunk. One thing I've been most intrigued by is how the end of all of this will appear. The Ukrainians evidently want to secure a peace where Russia withdraws totally from the nation, Crimea & East Ukraine included. Putin may settle for a token victory where Russia continues to occupy Donetsk, Donbas & Crimea; something which would at the very least ensure he doesn't get decapitated by his own cronies.
The Ukrainian army has thus far done a stellar job of defending, with grit, ATGMs and bayraktars. Yet to secure the kind of peace deal their leadership desires, they need to do more than hold onto defensive positions - they need to attack. I think the thought experiment for me at least is not whether the Ukrainians will launch a counter-assault, but when they will do it, and what that will look like. Will this result in the largest tank battle in European history since WWII? Or will we see a new form of warfare, as was witnessed in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict?
It isn't nearly as publicized as the territorials and militia on defense with Western weapons (not least because the Ukranian Army has been maintaining very good operational security), but their tanks have been smashing shit up for a while now. Multiple videos exist of UA tanks taking out Russian vehicles with gunfire, and they were at the spearhead of the counteroffensives that have rolled up the northern front and are now on the brink of liberating Kherson in the south. They're already counterattacking aggressively.
How it will go in the east is difficult to say. The "breakaway republics" are not super defensible, but Crimea itself is, and they'd be going right into the teeth of whatever Russia has left. So far, we haven't seen much sign that Russia can stop them, but this will be where they are strongest, and where the remaining Russian Air Force is concentrated. So the deciding factor is likely to be how well Ukraine brings up their heavy SAMs, how well they manage to use their MANPADs, and if their 20 new planes have enough pilots to actually contest Russia directly in the skies.
Oh, and Ukraine supposedly has 20 new planes in action, because a big shipment of parts from US allies have allowed them to get a large number of damaged/out of service fighters back into action. They're also receiving first-line artillery from the US and the Netherlands, the US ones coming with more shells than the service life of the barrel. Tanks, type and source not specified, are also supposed to have been shipped in. This means that when the great counterattack begins, it will be far stronger than it would have a month ago.
Post by: Il Palazzo on April 20, 2022, 06:29:48 pm
But again, I ask you, where is your line?I don't know. Not here.
Post by: Madman198237 on April 20, 2022, 09:25:42 pm
How it will work now that the Russians have refocused and it is more of straight slugging match...we will see. Hopefully the fact that Russia can no longer manufacture most advanced weapons and Ukraine is being bankrolled by pretty much everyone will cause Russia to finally lose a war of attrition.
Ukraine reclaiming Donbas and such might, MAYBE, happen, Ukraine reclaiming Crimea is a pipe dream but stranger things have happened, and have happened recently.
Post by: Quarque on April 20, 2022, 09:49:15 pm
I vaguely recall news about Russian soldiers checking the phones of civilians to see if they had been anti-Putin and killing them if they did. In any case, my impression is that the aim is to kill people based on their political views, rather than based on their ethnicity. The first word that came to my mind was "great purge" rather than "genocide". Of course that doesn't make it any better.
Post by: Lord Shonus on April 20, 2022, 10:00:07 pm
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
This is the rundown of hard confirmed equipment losses by both sides. This only tracks vehicles where it is 100% certain that they are unique events, and does not include "we know they lost this but the wreck wasn't photographed yet" (which results in a few big spikes in the data when the front moves and there's suddenly a lot more wrecks getting imaged), "I don't know what the hell this used to be" shrapnel, or "something blew up, but no proof what or whose" situations. With photo evidence being ironclad, these are reasonable floor figures. In the big lists, every entry has a link to the photo of the loss, and the people behind it will remove anything proven false.
The floor figure is:
Ukraine - 866, of which: destroyed: 393, damaged: 22, abandoned: 35, captured: 416
Russia - 3044, of which: destroyed: 1615, damaged: 48, abandoned: 243, captured: 1138
Not going into the details - you can look at the linked source if interested, but confirmed figures show Ukraine's net losses (factoring in captures) at -272, and Russia's vehicle losses at 2,628. Now, Ukraine is maintaining good opsec, so there is no question that they're losing more than we know about. The same is almost certainly true of Russia. But if you assume we know about every single Russian loss, Ukraine would have to be hiding the destruction of 2900 vehicles to have parity, and there's nothing to suggest that big a gap. If nothing else, Russian propaganda would be parading something just to counteract the narrative that they're losing badly.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 20, 2022, 10:36:59 pm
Some cute denazificators
Post by: Strongpoint on April 20, 2022, 10:55:26 pm
If one doesn't see a deliberate intent after Russian State-owned newspaper publishes an article that openly calls for a destruction of Ukrainian Nation by "liqudating" elites and "reeducating the rest", If one doesn't see the intent after forced departarion of children. If one doesn't see the intent after. Putin DECORATED the unit committing mass murders... It is pointless to argue with such person
Post by: Starver on April 21, 2022, 04:59:55 am
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1516981728300179457Almost everything in that photo screams Prettyboy Cosplayers... I'm not militarily-trained, in any way, but if they're supposed to be actual fighters on the way to the 'front' they've definitely chosen the "Vogue photoshoot" option over "we mean business". (The phrase "daddy's credit-card" also comes to mind, if that's not wildly inappropriate.)
Some cute denazificators
If they are indeed trained fighters, then obviously I'd have no chance if they actually came gunning for me for whatever reason. But I've already said I'm not militarily-trained. The best of Ukrainian luck to them, if they're actually more trousers[1] than mouth and go what they say they will... And I mean that most sincerely!
[1] I tend to favour cargo-pants myself, for various practical reasons, but at least I know their limitations!
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 21, 2022, 05:15:57 am
I always suspected as much; it seemed a bit odd that all of the Ukrainian footage was of light infantry and jets, but nothing of their armour and self-propelled gunsSpoiler (click to show/hide)
One thing I think worth noting is just how many of the Eastern republic militia have been forcibly recruited against their will. In the face of a serious counter-offensive significant portions of the Russian defence line is liable to just surrender because they don't want to die for a cause they don't shareSpoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Starver on April 21, 2022, 05:38:56 am
Putin has ordered his troops to cancel storming the Azov steel factory. Instead, he has ordered that it be hermetically sealed off from the outside world "in a way that not even a fly can go in or out".
Looks like he wants to starve those that are sheltering there.
Russia usually does the opposite of what it says so... IMO, assault is coming soon
PS. mistook this for the secondary thread
No plan survives contact with the enemy, they say. I interpret it as yet another failure for Russia to do what it thought of as easy to accomplish.
So now we see how the "no, perhaps we won't make our troops quickly learn how tunnel-warfare works" turns it into a more hermetic siege. And/or requires their forces to withdraw a bit (probably not enough!) so they can lob earthquake-munitions onto the area and try to reduce the awkward waiting time a bit as they collapse some of the 'refuge' network. It makes me wonder how much this plan will change, though.
(I have some little knowledge of steelworks. Not surprised that one has been found to be so defensible.)
Post by: brewer bob on April 21, 2022, 06:41:45 am
Contrary to popular perceptions, shaped by the Holocaust and Rwanda, perpetrating genocide does not require large numbers of victims. The intent and logic of targeting are the key.
The closest example might be the Bosnian War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnian_War) (1992-1995) and the Srebrenica massacre (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Srebrenica_massacre) of 8,000 Bosniak Muslim men, which was ruled as genocide. However, according to the ICJ, the Serbian state couldn't be held responsible for it, but it was ruled that Serbia had failed to prevent genocide and punish the perpetrators.
Post by: scriver on April 21, 2022, 11:21:12 am
1. There are Ukrainians and Russians. These are separate peoples.
2. There are Ukrainian and Russians living in Ukraine. Both can be citizens of Ukraine. Being a citizen of Ukraine does not automatically make one a member of the Ukrainian people and likewise being a citizen of Russia does not automatically make one a member of the Russian people.
3. Whether or not one wants to be ruled by Russia is irrelevant to whether one belongs to a people or not.
4. Putin's government have made it evident that they do not believe Ukrainians exist, and that they intend to destroy the very idea of a Ukrainian folk-identity.
It is therefore to me clear that Putin would, if he had conquered Ukraine like he wanted, have begun to commit genocide.
I'm saying that first because I wanted to make that clear before I get to the point.
What we're seeing now is an extremely brutal and tyrannic invasion, that's uncontestable. But for the actions of the generals and soldiers to be genocidal in themselves there would be some kind of way for us to tell thst they're specifically targeting members of the Ukrainian people with their cruelty, and making an effort to spare members of the Russian people. If they are just massacring and vicgimising people without regards to their people, it's not genocide.
And like I said up top, I don't have the data to make a conclusion about that. So no, technically it might not be a genocide (yet). But it's also clear that Russia has genocidal intentions in Ukraine.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 21, 2022, 02:05:17 pm
Another $800M in military aid to Ukraine from the US, along with (an unspecified amount of?) more economic assistance money. Biden is going to request another $1.3B appropriations supplemental.
Russia is about to learn why the US has no universal healthcare.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 21, 2022, 02:19:29 pm
Another $800M in military aid to Ukraine from the US, along with (an unspecified amount of?) more economic assistance money. Biden is going to request another $1.3B appropriations supplemental.
Russia is about to learn why the US has no universal healthcare.
While funny, the US technically has its own backward neo-capitalist version of Universal Healthcare. It is actually why I can't file my taxes!
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 22, 2022, 06:59:50 am
"While you developed healthcare... I STUDIED THE BLADEAnother $800M in military aid to Ukraine from the US, along with (an unspecified amount of?) more economic assistance money. Biden is going to request another $1.3B appropriations supplemental.Russia is about to learn why the US has no universal healthcare.
While you maintained your roads... I STUDIED THE BLADE
While you pursued vain equality and education... I BLADED THE BLADE
Now the barbarians are at the gates and you have the cheek to ask me for help?
Thank god, I was worried it was going to go to waste"
Post by: Strongpoint on April 22, 2022, 10:12:46 am
Sure, losing ~30-50K of our best troops would be a major blow sure but it won't make Ukraine surrender. Not after it became obvious that the goal is a genocide.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 22, 2022, 10:17:53 am
Weak dictators are dead dictators.
Russia's long-term strategy is probably:
1) Re-organize and push hard now, maybe that will work
2) Reduce the intensity of the conflict to more manageable levels (on Russia's side).
3) Conscript dissents to die in Ukraine
4) When next global crisis hits to distract everyone, re-evaluate
Post by: nenjin on April 22, 2022, 10:29:47 am
"While you developed healthcare... I STUDIED THE BLADEAnother $800M in military aid to Ukraine from the US, along with (an unspecified amount of?) more economic assistance money. Biden is going to request another $1.3B appropriations supplemental.Russia is about to learn why the US has no universal healthcare.
While you maintained your roads... I STUDIED THE BLADE
While you pursued vain equality and education... I BLADED THE BLADE
Now the barbarians are at the gates and you have the cheek to ask me for help?
Thank god, I was worried it was going to go to waste"
As much as I chuckled....you know this is the position some in this country actually take. The kind of people who watched "A Few Good Men" too many times and took away the wrong message.
Quote
1) Re-organize and push hard now, maybe that will work
I feel like this is Russia's only real plan. The sunk cost fallacy. They've come this far, they basically have to commit to an all-out offensive to win. Nothing else is really going to suffice, not after all this bullshit. They simply cannot retreat because pride and ego. And on the other side, there's political fallout, potential war crimes and no return to normality for Russia if they don't achieve what they said they were going to.
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 22, 2022, 10:56:12 am
Post by: nenjin on April 22, 2022, 11:03:14 am
Post by: EuchreJack on April 22, 2022, 11:09:50 am
I really don't see how Ukraine can both defend their country and then push back into territory Russia has controlled for years. They just need to withstand this.
It makes perfect sense if you see war like this:
Me - Frontline - Them
So by pushing my frontline into the enemy, I no longer have to defend, for the enemy has to push through my advancing army in order to get to my stuff.
...war doesn't exactly work like that. But hey, it is a theory.
The real question is how much support will the locals in the Seperatist Republics and Crimea give to Ukraine. There were at least a few folks who backed Russia for a reason in those regions.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 22, 2022, 11:28:14 am
As I said several times before, Ukraine needs to keep fighting to the last. Take back Crimea and yeet the separatist republics. Not only is it their rightful land, that's also how you get Putin to fall. I believe in you guys.
Very few people in Ukraine will support a costly offensive into Crimea. which is militarized to hell. Moving in so-called republics is possible but even then I fail to see Ukraine initiating major urban combat i Donetsk, Luhansk, Horlivka or other big cities. Not mentioning that we need quite a few major victories before going on offensive of this scale.
Our plan is to win the war of attrition against Russia. With Western help
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 22, 2022, 11:33:12 am
Post by: martinuzz on April 22, 2022, 11:50:31 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on April 22, 2022, 03:29:48 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on April 22, 2022, 04:29:04 pm
My guess is the political purge over there is officially underway, or if not then soon.
There's also something going on with Russian oligarchs suddenly committing suicide. (https://www.newsweek.com/every-russian-oligarch-who-has-died-since-putin-invaded-ukraine-full-list-1700022) Six have died so far since the invasion began.
The sanctions appear to be working. The two most recent oligarchs are the guy who made his money selling Oil to the West, and the guy making money from one of the major banks.
I tend to believe they were in fact murder-suicides because they saw their assets shrinking away.
However, getting killed by Putin because they told him to end the war and their losses is also a distinct possibility.
The slaughter of family could be committed by an egotist knowing they were unable to continue providing them the ultrarich lifestyle, or government retaliation.
After all, you wipe out your enemy's families so that no survivor can challenge you later, and to send a message.
50/50?
Post by: heydude6 on April 22, 2022, 04:46:08 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on April 22, 2022, 06:51:28 pm
It disturbed me greatly that so many of these parents seem willing to brutally kill their children. My first reaction was to just assume they were Epstein cases, but one of them was a literal locked-room mystery. Either Putin is working very hard to hide his involvement in these murders or Russians really are this fucked.
The scary part is the escalation. They go from Oligarchs hanging themselves to Oligarchs and their family being stabbed.
At least some of that has to be Putin.
As for the locked-room mystery:
1) Nobody mentioned the windows.
2) It is easy to perpetuate a locked-room mystery if the police are in on it.
It is also possible that the shooting was done by the Oligarch because he knew his family was about to be brutally stabbed like the others. You have to imagine these Oligarchs know more about the brutality of the inner circle than the outside world.
Post by: heydude6 on April 22, 2022, 07:08:18 pm
2) It is easy to perpetuate a locked-room mystery if the police are in on it.
That implies the Spanish police are working with Putin. How deep does this Russian corruption go? Can't just be Spanish vigilantes cause that doesn't explain the other deaths.
Post by: scriver on April 22, 2022, 07:11:55 pm
How do you even know if a place is "locked from the inside" anyway?
Post by: heydude6 on April 22, 2022, 07:36:16 pm
The locked room murder was the second murder, which was in Spain.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 22, 2022, 07:49:01 pm
Some locks can only be locked from the inside, Barrel bolts and chain locks come in mind. They're kinda niche though, and I don't trust a corrupt police force to be honest about this sort of stuff.
The locked room murder was the second murder, which was in Spain.
You mixed them up.
The locked room murder was in Moscow.
The brutal stabbing was in Spain.
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 22, 2022, 09:19:30 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQp95CYUcAEmLa3?format=jpg&name=large)
Wow! I almost couldn't tell that his parents were hauling him away mid-masturbation session from 4chan this time! Telling us to get gangbanged by Krauts and Pollacks. What deep, powerful poetry. Not a sign of advanced mental illness. What a visionary! What refinement! This is the best Russia has to offer, apparently. And this was published in Russian news. Of course.
Don't tell me it's just Putin ever again.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 22, 2022, 09:20:26 pm
Also, Moldova is concerned about Russian plans to take Donbas and southern Ukraine, which would open a gateway to the breakaway region of Transnistria.Quote from: The GuardianMoldova has expressed “deep concern” and summoned the Russian ambassador following comments by a Russian military commander who said Moscow’s new aim was to seize control of southern Ukraine, which would also give it access to Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova.
“These statements are unfounded and contradict the position of the Russian Federation supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova, within its internationally recognized borders,” Moldova’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
In a meeting with Russian ambassador Oleg Vasnetov, the ministry “reiterated that the Republic of Moldova, in line with its Constitution, is a neutral state and this principle must be respected by all international actors, including the Russian Federation,” it continued.
Sorry Moldova, there are no Neutrals.
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 22, 2022, 10:48:02 pm
It disturbed me greatly that so many of these parents seem willing to brutally kill their children. My first reaction was to just assume they were Epstein cases, but one of them was a literal locked-room mystery. Either Putin is working very hard to hide his involvement in these murders or Russians really are this fucked.That's just the uber-rich of any nationality. The uber-rich lack any sort of morality or compassion. I hope if there is a future socialist government in Russia, they all get deported while their money and businesses stay behind. Fuck them.
snipI will be entirely honest, I have never heard of this guy or his poems before. He seems cringe though. Keep on cherrypicking things to discredit Russian culture.
Post by: martinuzz on April 22, 2022, 10:50:52 pm
Russian government and military need to be eradicated like the cockroaches they are.
Also, Moldova is concerned about Russian plans to take Donbas and southern Ukraine, which would open a gateway to the breakaway region of Transnistria.Quote from: The GuardianMoldova has expressed “deep concern” and summoned the Russian ambassador following comments by a Russian military commander who said Moscow’s new aim was to seize control of southern Ukraine, which would also give it access to Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova.
“These statements are unfounded and contradict the position of the Russian Federation supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova, within its internationally recognized borders,” Moldova’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
In a meeting with Russian ambassador Oleg Vasnetov, the ministry “reiterated that the Republic of Moldova, in line with its Constitution, is a neutral state and this principle must be respected by all international actors, including the Russian Federation,” it continued.
Sorry Moldova, there are no Neutrals.
They are a threat to humanity. They have forgone their right to be alive.
Fucking nazis. Die nazi scum.
No one will weep for you.
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 22, 2022, 10:52:40 pm
Oligarchs are part of the government too, detain them and nationalize the fuck out of their corporations after draining their bank accounts. There is not a single good oligarch in existence.Russian government and military need to be eradicated like the cockroaches they are.
Also, Moldova is concerned about Russian plans to take Donbas and southern Ukraine, which would open a gateway to the breakaway region of Transnistria.Quote from: The GuardianMoldova has expressed “deep concern” and summoned the Russian ambassador following comments by a Russian military commander who said Moscow’s new aim was to seize control of southern Ukraine, which would also give it access to Transnistria, a pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova.
“These statements are unfounded and contradict the position of the Russian Federation supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova, within its internationally recognized borders,” Moldova’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
In a meeting with Russian ambassador Oleg Vasnetov, the ministry “reiterated that the Republic of Moldova, in line with its Constitution, is a neutral state and this principle must be respected by all international actors, including the Russian Federation,” it continued.
Sorry Moldova, there are no Neutrals.
I wouldn't kill them anyways. Being deported into another country with nothing but the clothes on their backs and no way to recover, likely becoming homeless, would be far more humiliating.
Post by: martinuzz on April 22, 2022, 10:56:28 pm
To be honest, don't limit that to Russian oligarchs. It's time for global revolution against the oligarchs regardless of their nationality. Bring out the guillotines. It's time to end this world where there are people who own a million or more times more than those who make them their money. The gap between haves and have nots is bigger than it ever was in history.
The French nobles that got their heads chopped off during the French revolution had less relative wealth compared to the poor than our current richfucks have now.
Feudalism was less abusive than our current system.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 22, 2022, 11:03:25 pm
As for Putin, nobody rules alone. He obviously has vast numbers of people who support him, or he would not be in power. And the fact he's committing these atrocities so openly means plenty of folks in Russia accept/encourage these actions.
But not everyone.
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 22, 2022, 11:05:13 pm
I'm just going to post a friendly reminder that many people live in a country of various opinions.Yeah. What pisses me off about people attacking the Russian people themselves is that it paints me and my friends as guilty by association. I didn't choose to be born here, why should I bear any guilt if I oppose the government's actions?
As for Putin, nobody rules alone. He obviously has vast numbers of people who support him, or he would not be in power. And the fact he's committing these atrocities so openly means plenty of folks in Russia accept/encourage these actions.
But not everyone.
Post by: martinuzz on April 22, 2022, 11:05:32 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on April 22, 2022, 11:20:09 pm
Quite aware. Which is why I say, end the Russian government and end the Russian military. Not the Russian people....I'm sure there is at least one Russian Government sanitation engineer in Siberia that isn't so bad.
My point being, Government encompasses a large number of things. So while those in charge at the National Level probably* need a clean sweep, some local lads and lasses might be worth keeping around.
*"Probably" meaning there could possibly be one or up to two leaders at the National Level that are redeemable. And I only say that because I don't know much about those folks. Maybe none are redeemable.
Post by: RoseHeart on April 23, 2022, 12:00:33 am
Post by: bloop_bleep on April 23, 2022, 01:00:00 am
snipI will be entirely honest, I have never heard of this guy or his poems before. He seems cringe though. Keep on cherrypicking things to discredit Russian culture.
This is not a random nobody. Here is a quote on his Wikipedia page.
Quote
According to Professor Andrey Ranchin of Moscow State University: “Brodsky is the only modern Russian poet whose body of work has already been awarded the honorary title of a canonized classic... Brodsky's literary canonization is an exceptional phenomenon. No other contemporary Russian writer has been honored as the hero of such a number of memoir texts; no other has had so many conferences devoted to them”.
Your country's public consciousness has a streak of blatant imperialism. It's condoned and supported at many institutional levels. It seeps into every corner of life. Really, when even your eminent poets think they should write something like this... It is a major part of the public sentiment, really the overall attitude of the Russian public. I think so many years under Soviet oppression, without a democratic government for any appreciable length of time even before then may have really stifled your country's "character" progression to a more fair, liberal society. My own personal anger at one loon's ramblings aside, I ask that you recognize this.
I greatly appreciate your moral support for Ukraine. It is good to have as many good-hearted and not indifferent people on our side as possible, wherever they may come from. And I really can't blame you for having a national identity, it's what we are trying to protect anyway.
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 23, 2022, 02:29:17 am
Oh I know, many people here support Putin. This is what not having a democratic government for a long time does to a country: people get brainwashed into... that.snipI will be entirely honest, I have never heard of this guy or his poems before. He seems cringe though. Keep on cherrypicking things to discredit Russian culture.
This is not a random nobody. Here is a quote on his Wikipedia page.QuoteAccording to Professor Andrey Ranchin of Moscow State University: “Brodsky is the only modern Russian poet whose body of work has already been awarded the honorary title of a canonized classic... Brodsky's literary canonization is an exceptional phenomenon. No other contemporary Russian writer has been honored as the hero of such a number of memoir texts; no other has had so many conferences devoted to them”.
Your country's public consciousness has a streak of blatant imperialism. It's condoned and supported at many institutional levels. It seeps into every corner of life. Really, when even your eminent poets think they should write something like this... It is a major part of the public sentiment, really the overall attitude of the Russian public. I think so many years under Soviet oppression, without a democratic government for any appreciable length of time even before then may have really stifled your country's "character" progression to a more fair, liberal society. My own personal anger at one loon's ramblings aside, I ask that you recognize this.
I greatly appreciate your moral support for Ukraine. It is good to have as many good-hearted and not indifferent people on our side as possible, wherever they may come from. And I really can't blame you for having a national identity, it's what we are trying to protect anyway.
I'm very sorry if I came across as rude or insensitive, I just like reading Russian literature and poetry (mostly either classic or Soviet drama or modern genre fiction) and the bulk of it isn't really imperialist, so it struck a nerve.
Post by: martinuzz on April 23, 2022, 06:52:54 am
The madness must end.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 23, 2022, 07:39:19 am
Also, dear religious people of Ukraine, please don't try to ignore the curfew and don't try to go to churches for the night sermon. I am sure that your God will forgive you for staying home
Post by: EuchreJack on April 23, 2022, 07:53:10 am
Sorry for my rants yesterday. Somthing snapped when I got home from a weekend night out and the first thing I see are more sattelite photos of mass graves.We've all been there. It is a high stress situation.
The madness must end.
Your responses make sense regarding the crimes perpetrated by, at least some, if not many, of the Russian Military and Russian Government.
Post by: Lord Shonus on April 23, 2022, 01:37:51 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 23, 2022, 05:16:41 pm
What boggles my mind - is there are people living in Ukraine, business as usual, especially on the west side.Seems about what you'd expect really. Unless you have a means of directly contributing to the war effort you are really only left with the choices to flee or continue life as normal, like the Londoners during the blitz
Post by: Starver on April 23, 2022, 06:09:49 pm
One hopes (and, it appears, it may be) that a similar top-down style of reprioritisation-by-whim is dominant in the Russian strategy as with the Reich. There's no better asset than the enemy's forces being micromanaged by an armchair general who thinks he has all the answers and insists upon a 'Grand Strategy' that his subordinates may know to be incorrect but are unable to pipe up about.
It means a lot of senseless barbarity, of course, but in many ways that's better than suffering from an entirely sensible barbarity that also actually does what it is intended to do.
Here's to lessons not being learnt! (Enough, at least.)
Post by: Strongpoint on April 24, 2022, 02:20:38 am
Seing second hand reports of Ukraniams on Discord being told to take their guns and go home in sevrral oblasts because their TDF units are being demobilized. Claim is that the immediate threat to those oblasts is over, and they are needed in civilian life.
After the threat of invasion from Belarus passed, there are no reasons to maintain TDF units in Western Ukraine. Zero.
And they are needed in civilian life, -45% to GDP is no joke...
Post by: Lord Shonus on April 24, 2022, 02:54:26 am
Post by: brewer bob on April 25, 2022, 06:24:16 am
Putin and Russia has to be stopped by any means necessary.
(Can't confirm the accuracy of the account, though, but I don't really have a reason to doubt it either.)
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 25, 2022, 09:35:06 am
There was a torture fantasy rant here that I deleted because it might be against forum rules.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 25, 2022, 12:02:36 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on April 26, 2022, 01:53:16 am
Continuing with the news spam:
Sergei Lavrov warns of danger of World War III and says that Western arms deliveries to Ukraine means that NATO is in essence engaged in war with Russia.Quote from: The GuardianRussia foreign minister warns of ‘real’ danger of World War III
Sergei Lavrov told Russian news agencies that Russia’s peace talks with Ukraine will continue, but that there remains a “real” danger of a third world war. The Russian foreign minister was critical of the Ukrainian president’s approach to peace talks, accusing him of “pretending” to negotiate and calling him a “good actor”.
“Good will has its limits. But if it isn’t reciprocal, that doesn’t help the negotiation process,” he said. “But we are continuing to engage in negotiations with the team delegated by Zelenskiy, and these contacts will go on.”
He said he was confident that “everything will of course finish with the signing of an accord”, but that “the parameters of this accord will be defined by the state of the fighting that will have taken place at the moment the accord becomes reality.”
The danger of a world war is real, he said. “The danger is serious, it is real, you can’t underestimate it,” Lavrov told the Interfax news agency.Quote from: BBCLavrov: 'Nato, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia'
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said deliveries of Western weaponry to Ukraine mean that the Nato alliance is "in essence engaged in war with Russia”.
In an interview aired on Monday, he said: "These weapons will be a legitimate target for Russia’s military acting within the context of the special operation.”
Lavrov also told state television: "Nato, in essence, is engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and is arming that proxy. War means war."Quote from: BBCLavrov: Threat of nuclear war is real
Lavrov also acknowledged there's a possibility of the conflict escalating to nuclear weapons, though he also sounded a hopeful note about the prospects of a peace accord.
Speaking to the Russian First Channel on Monday, he said Moscow wanted to avoid "artificially" elevated risks of such a conflict.
"This is our key position on which we base everything. The risks now are considerable," Lavrov said.
"I would not want to elevate those risks artificially. Many would like that. The danger is serious, real, And we must not underestimate it."
Lavrov also accused President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine of "pretending" to negotiate, calling him "a good actor”.
"If you watch attentively and read attentively what he says, you'll find a thousand contradictions," Russia’s top diplomat said.
The foreign minister said last week that Moscow was committed to avoiding a nuclear war.
On Monday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted that Lavrov’s latest comments were an indication Russia had lost its "last hope to scare the world off supporting Ukraine”.
"Thus the talk of a ‘real’ danger of WWIII. This only means Moscow senses defeat in Ukraine," he tweeted.
Days after the invasion began back on 24 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his nuclear forces to be on alert.
The US and its Nato allies have said they do not want direct military intervention in Ukraine, in order to avoid the risks of a Third World War.
*Yawns* Someone is losing the war and tries to bluff their way into leaving Ukraine with no support.
Truth is, despite the loud talk, Russia ALWAYS swallows when answered with force. It swallowed when Turkey shot down their fighter, it swallowed when Americans annihilated a bunch of mercenaries from the Wagner group, it swallowed when Azerbaijan pounded their ally Armenia, etc.
Post by: scriver on April 26, 2022, 04:04:39 am
Post by: martinuzz on April 26, 2022, 04:13:06 am
Post by: King Zultan on April 26, 2022, 04:26:33 am
Post by: brewer bob on April 26, 2022, 04:35:01 am
*Yawns* Someone is losing the war and tries to bluff their way into leaving Ukraine with no support.
Yeah, pretty much had the same feelings.
Post by: Starver on April 26, 2022, 06:42:23 am
(The most bang-for-their-buck[1], insofar as demilitarising Ukraine, would be to leave immediately and withdraw their direct support for the 'rebels'. Even if NATO/EU/etc supporters continued to send 'defensive' materielle for a while, there'd be a net lowering of militarism, and probably also right-wingedness. Pipe-dreams, of course, as it'd never be done by those who have already staked so much on their now missed outcome, and kept on raising the ante just to avoid the climb-down.)
I might be wary of provoking the Russian leadership into greater things (hi Vlad, if you're reading this... What are your thoughts on the eventual Steam release? ...assuming you can still get access to Steam, right?) by being so provocative, but really if the future of world peace or otherwise turns on how how I phrase the following then chaos is already the dominant determinant. So, frankly, you lot failed in your militaristic manouvering for political gain, this was never a zero-sum game and you just made the net outcome worse for everyone when you had it in your power to make things at least a little bit better for most and (at least until the next bright-spark placed and lit various touch-papers) somewhat better for your own people, whether they immediately realised it or not. But, psychologically, it seems like that your position in power attracts your kind of tunnel-vision. Not that this is unusual in leaderships, we've got a doozy in the UK right now who is scrabbling to remain in power, but at least he need not fear a bloody-coup, and I appreciate that your nightmare is that if you ever back away from power with a breath still left in your body then you'll be subject to the whims of whatever Bigger Bastard somehow managed to usurp you, all because that's the system you yourself proliferated in and you couldn't work out any alternative. But you're weak, the way you rely upon your strength, it's not a bonus but a self-reinforced trap of your own design and if you had the guts that you pretend to have (with your escalating hints at WW3, etc) you'd have reshaped the system where your peaceful retirement isn't contingent upon being seen as Benevolent Sun God of the New Russian Empire, but rather that more tricky and nuanced of things as a true statesman and founding-father of a truly more enlightened age, which you seemed to part bring into being, since the fall of your beloved faux-communistic era, and yet failed to do so because of your seemingly magnetic attraction to One Man One Vote where you are that very man, and no other.
No, you're doomed. Either by your hand or by others'. Perhaps both. When can see from history that totalitarianism ends in failure and/or death (non-totalitarianism tends to end in lesser degrees of failure and usually defers the death to when it might have happened anyway, so long as it doesn't end in totalitarianism). Depending upon your views on the afterlife (I don't think you believe as much as you present as believing), this course probably isn't good for your immortal soul. Or, as I'm not convinced much by that kind of thing, your final moments of awareness.
And I'm convinced that you are doing this because of your perceived mortality. Some health scare? Realisation that there is finite time left and still things to do before being as venerated as you would like to think you will be, once it is beyond your power to influence or appreciate such matters? So you bet big on double-zero, thinking you'd sufficiently fixed the wheel, but the ball bounced elsewhere, and you'll be lucky if it lands on a side-bet before the thing stops spinning and bouncing. Sucks to be you. Isn't brilliant to be me, but at least I don't have your kind of insecurities. If I believed in blessings, that would be part of mine.
(Darn, this started out as the cold-logic of the first two paragraphs, but it seemed to go steeply into the emotional category... *checks* yep, right place for it ...from the next bit onwards. No actual wishing of death, as my non-beliefs tend to reason against such things in ways that a true-belief might not, but really I think you made a mistake starting The Great Idiotic War[2], Vladimir Vladimirovich, if you want this person's opinion, and I can probably be uncontested in saying that you either will live to regret it or you won't, no matter what personal influnce I might have on things.)
Yeah. So that's said. Back to the jolly stuff, everyone! As you were...
[1] Or, if they prefer, their still rather suppressed rouble..?
[2] I spent some time on Google Translate, a couple of months ago, looking for a good in-language pun on Вели́кая Оте́чественная война́ to reflect that sentiment, but I couldn't find words of apparently sufficient assonance, rhyme or alliteration for my largely cyrillically-naïve eye to determine as workable, but I'm sure there's some clever subversive wordplay possible that Max/etc would appreciate. I'm obviously not the right writer for that meme, though.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 27, 2022, 01:03:48 am
BBC reports that explosions have been heard in the Russian city of Belgorod.Quote from: BBCExplosions reportedly heard in Russian city
Multiple explosions have been heard in the Russian city of Belgorod, about 40km (24 miles) north of the Ukrainian border, according to a local official.
On social media app Telegram, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said he was woken at around 03:35 on Wednesday by the sound of an explosion.
He said that while drafting his social media post he heard another three loud booms.
Gladkov later said preliminary reports indicated an ammunition depot was on fire in a rural settlement, and "no casualties among the civilian population" had been reported.
Russians really should stop smoking. It is getting expensive; Flagship, oil depots, ammunition depots...
Post by: EuchreJack on April 27, 2022, 01:25:19 pm
"What Ammo/Fuel/etc? Domestic terrorists destroyed it all! Now, if you excuse me, I have to get back to my Vodka & Caviar..."
I actually wished I could believe that political dissidents were responsible in Russia.
Post by: hector13 on April 27, 2022, 01:47:14 pm
Post by: nenjin on April 27, 2022, 01:50:31 pm
Why is the first thing you apparently do when you hear an explosion as an official to draft a social media post?
Because it's the fastest way to reach people, versus an official press release or state media?
Post by: Lord Shonus on April 27, 2022, 04:39:31 pm
I think they have to keep blowing up their own stuff until their black market deals are all covered up.
"What Ammo/Fuel/etc? Domestic terrorists destroyed it all! Now, if you excuse me, I have to get back to my Vodka & Caviar..."
I actually wished I could believe that political dissidents were responsible in Russia.
Some of these explosions are really, really deep inside. Probably too far for Ukraine to hit except with their very limited supply of SRBMs. Incompetence or partisan activity seem like the likeliest explanations.
Post by: nenjin on April 27, 2022, 04:54:25 pm
Post by: hector13 on April 27, 2022, 06:23:05 pm
Why is the first thing you apparently do when you hear an explosion as an official to draft a social media post?
Because it's the fastest way to reach people, versus an official press release or state media?
As opposed to figuring out what the explosions were caused by and what the response should be? :p
Post by: Strongpoint on April 27, 2022, 11:02:59 pm
If Putin really decides to start a nuclear war, the odds are the first launch will just blow up over Russia, because everything they do is held together with twist ties and machismo.
Problem is that if even only 10% of Russian nukes will work as intended, it will be enough
Post by: Starver on April 28, 2022, 12:05:49 am
I wouldn't be surprised if US imagery weren't capable of detecting the simultaneous opening of sufficient of the known hard-based silo hatches. And if mobile launchers set themselves up to launch en-mass I don't think that'll go unspotted, while for any Russian boomers out there, expect any respective assigned trailing US subs to Flash a message about a 'training scenario' which Langley/NORAD/whoever will collate with other observations. It might not be quick enough to get a hotline call in to double-check it isn't an unannounced exercise (and an unannounced exercise of sufficient scope would be foolhardy - we've nearly had that kind of misinterpretation in times past!) but it would be plenty quick enough to prevent a mass first-strike from ending up unopposed by sheer credulity.
What could sneak under the radar (literally, as well as figuratively) is a low number (handfull, at most) of those hypersonic semi-/partial-orbital missiles sent to London/Washington/wherever, perhaps timed well to avoid the periods of densest military-imagery overview until they're well on their way. And, being their new pride-and-joy equipment, less likely to be suffering neglect (if not hampered by corruption in the recent assembly process) so might actually work as intended. But if they even deliver decapitating nuclear strikes on heads/seats of government, we all know that Cheyenne Mountain or the UK's Letters Of Last Resort are going to be untouched enough to (if it's at all their current policy) return the favour with interest.
I can't really see a winning scenario for anybform of threatened deployment. It's overkill (even if conventional/inert-but-kinetic payload) to spark up the futuristic missile system to bombard Ukraine as a "lesson" to everyone else, because it expends the fancy stuff on what the non-fancy stuff has already been doing. And non-conventional use means stepping over a line that is only marginally less likely to provoke some more direct 'limited exchange' response that could even involve the Kremlin and/or select dachas being smeared out, but certainly at least one major Russian military base with acceptably few civilians close by.
...well, it's hard to predict what is actually in the various response-policies of the NATO/western systems, but if the US restrains itself (say), there'd be the UK, France, etc, and who knows how China will react (or not). If Putin already thinks the whole world is against him, the psychology to keep pushing further into actual deployment seems to suggest he does not have a fall-back position, only a fall-out one. It'd be a wild ride, and I don't care how many dimensions the chessboard has, the only winning move really is not to play.
(In short, it's either a big bluff or I can see no practical escape from the doom it unleashes. I'd probably bet on it being the former, if only because the future me who might still be capable of collecting upon the latter option coming true is perhaps also simultaneously less fussed about having been right or wrong in such an armchair prediction made in the times before The Event.)
Post by: Quarque on April 28, 2022, 06:41:47 am
Really hope you guys are right. :-\*Yawns* Someone is losing the war and tries to bluff their way into leaving Ukraine with no support.
Yeah, pretty much had the same feelings.
Post by: Madman198237 on April 28, 2022, 08:54:45 am
I wouldn't be surprised if US imagery weren't capable of detecting the simultaneous opening of sufficient of the known hard-based silo hatches.
US satellite photoreconnaissance can definitely determine that; the resolution is that good. The only question is whether they'd receive the images before the missiles launch and are detected by radar and the like. Presumably it doesn't take that long to launch a missile after opening such silos given the need to be able to launch missiles within about 30-45 minutes after the enemy launches theirs, since any missile still in its silo when a hostile nuke hits will be going nowhere. Do remember that the US and presumably other NATO nations do have the capability to detect any missiles launched from Russia and attempt to intercept them. I don't know how many missiles we could conceivably intercept and I don't know the effectiveness of the interceptors against ballistic missiles, though it should be very high given their performance against non-nuclear targets in the Gulf War and such).
Either the people calling the bluff are right and the war will end without any potential worldwide destruction, or they're not and we have no choice but to continue as we have been to deny Russia any benefits from its aggression. There is no way for the rest of the world to back out of this conflict without unacceptable consequences. Consequences like "every two-bit dictator or rogue state with a handful of nukes can invade everybody around them without fear".Really hope you guys are right. :-\*Yawns* Someone is losing the war and tries to bluff their way into leaving Ukraine with no support.
Yeah, pretty much had the same feelings.
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 28, 2022, 09:59:40 am
Post by: Strongpoint on April 28, 2022, 10:40:14 am
Really hope you guys are right. :-\*Yawns* Someone is losing the war and tries to bluff their way into leaving Ukraine with no support.
Yeah, pretty much had the same feelings.
Oh, I am nervous, believe me. Ukraine is the first target for nukes and use of tactical nukes is way more likely than ICBM... Russia is losing this war. Their state ideology can't accept a defeat against inferior Ukrainians, against a failed state.
Russian propaganda is actively normalizing the use of nukes and it is freaking scary. USSR always had anti-nuclear war propaganda, it was unthinkable to even suggest that USSR may use nukes in any other way but for a retaliatitory strike.
One of the oddities of this war is Ukrainian forces stopping on the Russian border... If we could pursue the troops that were retreating from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions, the war would be going very differently, Russian front would collapse, there would be chaos in their logistics, their forces in Donbass would risk encirclement and Ukraine would occupy few Russian cities.
Nukes is what prevented this scenario from becoming reality...
Post by: Quarque on April 28, 2022, 11:14:14 am
Quote
Their state ideology can't accept a defeat against inferior Ukrainians, against a failed state.What worries me most is that it now all depends on the whims of a single guy - an old, bitter, cynical man full of grudges.
Strongpoint - if I may ask, how did you find the courage to stay in Ukraine? Did you consider leaving?
Post by: Strongpoint on April 28, 2022, 11:54:50 am
QuoteTheir state ideology can't accept a defeat against inferior Ukrainians, against a failed state.Strongpoint - if I may ask, how did you find the courage to stay in Ukraine? Did you consider leaving?
I am in a safe rural area away from frontlines with no infrastructure or military objects nearby. The chances of some stray cruise missile hitting me are close to zero.
Amazingly, my personal life didn't change much. I have everything - electricity, usual food, internet. If you don't count being nervous as hell for the fate of my loved ones, especially my brother who having zero military skills volunteered on day 1.
My sister and her children are in Ireland now and I'll likely join her should Russians get closer.
Post by: Starver on April 28, 2022, 02:34:15 pm
The only question is whether they'd receive the images before the missiles launch and are detected by radar and the like. Presumably it doesn't take that long to launch a missile after opening such silos given the need to be able to launch missiles within about 30-45 minutes after the enemy launches theirs, since any missile still in its silo when a hostile nuke hits will be going nowhere.I imagine that for a sufficient exchange, something of a theme of "oh look, their hatch is open" would be a recurring buzz amongst the analysts and/or the image-processing algorithms tasked to review the download from the small but significant cloud of top-down imagers that are whizzing around with this very specific job amongst their priority lists. Eyebrows would be raised fairly quickly as the duty officer realises that there's a lot of "possible spring-cleaning" being initiated in the last few minutes and more information would quickly be sought by specifically checking other indicative sites, in leiu of any other routine targets for review that are now considered secondary and can wait a bit...
For a limited-launch situation, no doubt the activities can be planned around known coverage-gaps (knowing where milsats are over, at any given moment, although perhaps with the assumption that orientation to capture oblique views is rarer) and then it'd be the wide-angled detectors primed to pinpoint the thermal blooms of launch-stages that'll raise eyebrows and not a little sweat. Those and the radar-systems that can quickly use artificial-aperture techniques once certain detection fingerprints have crossed thresholds in a general low-power sweep. (I'm guessing at how they work, but in an educated manner.) But for anything whose results are fairly likely to provoke a proportionately massive response, they might consider it as well to be hanged for a sheep as a lamb.
Thus I can't see it being anything other than just the same long-range conventionally-fipped attacks as seen landing all the way over to the west of Ukraine (whoops, was that a busy railway station we hit? We were sure it was the Nazi Stormtrooper HQ) or go for the major play to end all major plays and Press The Big Red Button (and let the devil tak the hindemost, ye ken?)... I can't see any scope for anything tactical. Possibly something like laying a demolition-sized warhead down upon the Azovstal plant complex (though, again, the complication of going non-conventional is clearly crossing a line), but they don't need ICBMs/hypersonic-FOBS to do that, given they're already milling around the outside and there's no benefit to risking a long-range miss (or the problems of whether/how much to take the cordon-manning troops and move them away a bit) when they could probably just use a forklift truck or three with a unit guarding the delivery/ies then withdrawing after lighting the metaphorically blue touchpaper...
Totally thin-air supposition on my part, of course. What's running through the minds of the coordinators and contingency planners, let alone their boss, is beyond my pay-grade. There'll be far more informed people than I worrying (or not) about how far this sort of thing will go. But my assessment is that it'll be very obvious if the balloon ever goes up, and long enough before it falls back down again for a whole lotta military/diplomatic/etc response to be initiated to try to halt it all. If it's a very committed bluff, the latter could be what diffuses/defuses it. If it aint, then good luck with the Iron Shield-type multinational system in winnowing everything down, as we almost simultaneously possibly get to see how good their defences operate. Nasty business, either way.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 28, 2022, 03:38:18 pm
Many indirect indications of this move - the renewed activity of the Black Sea Fleets, some rumors from the occupied Crimea, attacking a bridge that leads to this area, notorious Russian propagandist arriving in Transnistria...
Post by: brewer bob on April 28, 2022, 05:20:59 pm
Post by: Nirur Torir on April 28, 2022, 07:07:19 pm
Post by: Starver on April 28, 2022, 07:19:38 pm
[1] But Ukraine's a big block of real-estate, and once you do a Bolivia to it and remove all its direct access to the sea and much more of its land borders are also Russian... Doubtless that's part of the thinking by some people, across all 'sides' of the conflict. Possibly an incentive to Belarus to join in was to give them bonus access to a (Dnieper/Dnipro)-corridor, or something.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 29, 2022, 12:02:20 am
A short victorious war would be a stunningly creative solution to Russia's problem of being stuck in a short victorious war.
I also think it is a good time to invade Finland before they join NATO. Who will respect Putin should he allow a new NATO country at Russian borders?
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 29, 2022, 09:54:31 am
A short victorious war would be a stunningly creative solution to Russia's problem of being stuck in a short victorious war.
I also think it is a good time to invade Finland before they join NATO. Who will respect Putin should he allow a new NATO country at Russian borders?
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Cathar on April 29, 2022, 10:04:31 am
A short victorious war
I love how waging a short victorious wars to solve underlying domestic issues is a solution that have been killing empires since Napoleon the third. Also big up to Putin "I'll deal with the US swiftly" after having his ass handed to him by Kiev's TDF.
Ukraine is currently bracing for a big push in the east next week, and free cities are currently shelled by russian artillery.
Also I don't know if the live map (https://liveuamap.com/en) has been posted, but it's a good information source.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 29, 2022, 10:22:10 am
A short victorious war
I love how waging a short victorious wars to solve underlying domestic issues is a solution that have been killing empires since Napoleon the third. Also big up to Putin "I'll deal with the US swiftly" after having his ass handed to him by Kiev's TDF.
Ukraine is currently bracing for a big push in the east next week, and free cities are currently shelled by russian artillery.
Also I don't know if the live map (https://liveuamap.com/en) has been posted, but it's a good information source.
I think that for Putin this is way more than improving his popularity. He always referred to the collapse of the USSR as the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of XX century and was determined to undo it.
At first, he tried to achieve it with propaganda, diplomacy, economic pressure and funding pro-Russian political parties. It didn't really work in Ukraine (but hurt our attempts to fix our country) and he went for a hybrid war in 2014 when it became obvious that there is no other way to prevent Ukraine from moving further away from Russia. Even that wasn't enough to the collapse Ukrainian state...
He isn't getting younger, there are more and more rumors that he is quite ill, and he wants to remain in history as the gatherer of Russian lands.
Post by: nenjin on April 29, 2022, 10:40:10 am
Post by: brewer bob on April 29, 2022, 10:59:50 am
A short victorious war would be a stunningly creative solution to Russia's problem of being stuck in a short victorious war.
I also think it is a good time to invade Finland before they join NATO. Who will respect Putin should he allow a new NATO country at Russian borders?Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Haha. The amount of people going to voluntary national defence has doubled in Finland after the invasion, and sniper courses have been particularly popular, so maybe that picture isn't so far off.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 29, 2022, 01:57:03 pm
Post by: Starver on April 29, 2022, 05:52:35 pm
I'm not sure you can blame them, there's been a mass Pavlovian indoctrination imposed upon them since the Glorious Days Of Soviet Empire, and any let up has been slammed back in their faces as part of the attempt to reconstitute the "Good Old Days".
I'm not saying the Western media is perfect, but it's a totally different flavour.
Post by: brewer bob on April 29, 2022, 05:58:26 pm
I'm not saying the Western media is perfect, but it's a totally different flavour.
I recently tried watching clips of some Russian TV show and the first thing that came into my mind was the game show from the dystopian 80's movie The Running Man.
Post by: Jopax on April 29, 2022, 06:23:45 pm
Especially important (IMO at least) videos are two latest ones on the actual economics of the ongoing conflict and just how potentially fucked Russia is if it doesn't end this quickly enough (and even if they do, the damage is done, if not immediately apparent and obvious) and the question of the leadership possibly understanding this and being driven to some potentially desperate actions.
Post by: martinuzz on April 29, 2022, 09:10:08 pm
Guterres and the rest of the world are not amused, not to say, outraged.
Let's hope this will lead to the UN disbanding the UN security council to open the way to a global UN peacekeeping mission against Russia without veto from Russia or China.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 29, 2022, 10:58:31 pm
The Russian public is fed (or kept from being fed) a very select diet of news.
I'm not sure you can blame them, there's been a mass Pavlovian indoctrination imposed upon them since the Glorious Days Of Soviet Empire, and any let up has been slammed back in their faces as part of the attempt to reconstitute the "Good Old Days".
I'm not saying the Western media is perfect, but it's a totally different flavour.
I don't think that what they see in the news is the key to this. It should change how they react to the war not explain the lack of reaction.
For example, on Russian youtube trends, you can see a very usual set of videos. The first war-related video is #32.
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 30, 2022, 12:40:08 am
Much of the brainwashing is downplaying or denying the effects of the war.The Russian public is fed (or kept from being fed) a very select diet of news.
I'm not sure you can blame them, there's been a mass Pavlovian indoctrination imposed upon them since the Glorious Days Of Soviet Empire, and any let up has been slammed back in their faces as part of the attempt to reconstitute the "Good Old Days".
I'm not saying the Western media is perfect, but it's a totally different flavour.
I don't think that what they see in the news is the key to this. It should change how they react to the war not explain the lack of reaction.
For example, on Russian youtube trends, you can see a very usual set of videos. The first war-related video is #32.
Post by: lemon10 on April 30, 2022, 01:55:09 am
Quote from: Buisness today article
The World Bank has forecast Russia's 2022 GDP output will fall by 11.2% due to Western sanctions imposed on Russia's banks, state-owned enterprises and other institutions.I've seen some people say here that if Ukraine loses, this proves the toothlessness of the west and that it means that other aggressive countries with nukes and a big army (aka, only China) will take it to mean they can invade their neighbors (aka, Taiwan) with impunity.
With regards to China specifically, I think its the exact opposite. The response of the West has proven that unless China is willing to risk 15% of its GDP and its political and social place in the modern world invading Taiwan is not a risk they can take.
Now, obviously, the situations are different. China's place in the world economy is FAR larger than Russia's, Taiwan would go down in like a day if there was an actual invasion (and thus wouldn't be there to lobby the west for sanctions, or be able to stay in the news cycle), and their economic/political sphere of control means that many nations would side with them.
I can't see the west dropping the same level of sanctions they did against Russia against China. But even if the sanctions are only a fraction of the strength and they "just" result in China's economy not growing that year (an effective loss of ~5%) that would still have the potential to cause massive problems in China, and is very much not a risk I could see their leadership ever accepting barring some really extreme circumstances.
Even the risk of the US declaring a major trade war (eg. no companies are allowed to import from China or make anything there) with the rest of the West just watching and doing nothing would be a major enough loss that I can't see the Chinese government taking such a risk.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 30, 2022, 02:31:43 am
Quote
Taiwan would go down in like a day if there was an actual invasion
You underestimate how hard amphibious landings are. Also, I doubt that China wants to capture many piles of rubble (something Russians are willing to do) and this means an actual, honest, urban, door-to-door fighting.
Also, unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has modern airforce and SAMs
If Taiwan is willing to resist, this won't be a quick war.
Post by: Loud Whispers on April 30, 2022, 03:11:50 am
They all have the hallmarks of suspicious deaths; a murder weapon with no finger prints, no motive to commit murder suicide, signs of struggle before death, all happening in a short time frame with people whose one common link is they deal with money that has Putin's prints on them
Post by: lemon10 on April 30, 2022, 05:43:12 am
Fair enough, I didn't do my research on how powerful the Taiwainese military actually was.QuoteTaiwan would go down in like a day if there was an actual invasion
You underestimate how hard amphibious landings are. Also, I doubt that China wants to capture many piles of rubble (something Russians are willing to do) and this means an actual, honest, urban, door-to-door fighting.
Also, unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has modern airforce and SAMs
If Taiwan is willing to resist, this won't be a quick war.
But it doesn't really change my core point about how even if China wins the conflict fairly trivially it would probably still come with economic costs they wouldn't be willing to stomach, and thus they won't directly invade now or at any point in the foreseeable future.
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 30, 2022, 11:07:19 am
Taiwan is an urban, mountainous island nation with a strong military. Even the military giant of China couldn't take it in a day. Taiwan would have enough time to seek international help, and Chinese war crimes that would undoubtedly happen would surface far more easily. It has a good potential to be China's Ukraine, and Xi is smart and cautious so he won't invade.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 30, 2022, 01:29:36 pm
Spoiler: the newspaper (in Russian) (click to show/hide)
Post by: Cathar on April 30, 2022, 02:10:01 pm
Hot damn, loads of Oligarchs and oil technicians are getting suicided with their families in Russia (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10743649/Mystery-FOUR-suspicious-suicides-Russian-gas-executives-linked-Putin.html)
That's some true evil shit, holy hell. Now I want to know what these guys did to deserve that.
Post by: Lord Shonus on April 30, 2022, 03:06:39 pm
QuoteTaiwan would go down in like a day if there was an actual invasion
You underestimate how hard amphibious landings are. Also, I doubt that China wants to capture many piles of rubble (something Russians are willing to do) and this means an actual, honest, urban, door-to-door fighting.
Also, unlike Ukraine, Taiwan has modern airforce and SAMs
If Taiwan is willing to resist, this won't be a quick war.
Taiwan, unlike Ukraine, also usually has US military in-country who are there specifically to get killed in any Chinese attack. Because killing US troops is a really good way to get the US to intervene directly, and thus tripwire forces of that nature are a potent deterrent.
Post by: Strongpoint on April 30, 2022, 03:31:41 pm
Spoiler: Moscow, The Victory Day Parade Rehearsal (click to show/hide)
No, it isn't photoshopped
Post by: Il Palazzo on April 30, 2022, 03:37:16 pm
Post by: brewer bob on April 30, 2022, 05:05:08 pm
There's something wrong with their swastikas.
They've probably got only rehearsal armbands. The swastikas are probably still being made at the factory, but no worries, they'll be ready before the parade.
Post by: Starver on April 30, 2022, 07:08:46 pm
(They've not gone the whole Chainmail Bikini, at least.)
Post by: EuchreJack on April 30, 2022, 09:20:07 pm
Apart from anything else, marching in high-heels... That's elite!
(They've not gone the whole Chainmail Bikini, at least.)
...the skirts however are scandalously above the knee.
Post by: EuchreJack on April 30, 2022, 09:24:29 pm
Ukraine clams to have killed Major General Andrey Simonov in an artillery strike on his command post.
Confirmation is lacking, but a claim this specific is too easy to debunk for a fake to be likely.
Serious question: At what point do Russian Colonels start refusing promotion to Major General?
Or are Russian Colonels also getting regularly killed off, and they're just not important enough to hear about?
Post by: heydude6 on April 30, 2022, 10:12:31 pm
Or are Russian Colonels also getting regularly killed off, and they're just not important enough to hear about?
Probably exactly that.
Post by: MaxTheFox on April 30, 2022, 10:46:36 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on April 30, 2022, 11:04:18 pm
Post by: Quarque on April 30, 2022, 11:22:48 pm
Z is half of a swastika, because Putin is trying to be Hitler and half-assing it.omg this is so spot on
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 01, 2022, 04:50:56 am
That's some true evil shit, holy hell. Now I want to know what these guys did to deserve that.One of them was an accountant for a gas company linked to Putin
Probably knew too much
Post by: Starver on May 01, 2022, 05:36:43 am
To reverse the old joke:Or are Russian Colonels also getting regularly killed off, and they're just not important enough to hear about?
Probably exactly that.
* "Major General Ivan Ivanovich Ivanov, I have some bad news for you!"
* "But, sir, I'm Private Ivan Ivanovich Ivanov..."
* "...that's the bad news."
Post by: martinuzz on May 01, 2022, 05:51:53 am
I was about to say, isn't the rank of colonel awarded to every Russian making it through Kindergarten?
Post by: EuchreJack on May 01, 2022, 11:05:19 am
Haha.
I was about to say, isn't the rank of colonel awarded to every Russian making it through Kindergarten?
...those who fail Kindergarten are instead made General.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 01, 2022, 08:08:43 pm
Lavrov added that Nazi Germany's leader Adolf Hitler also "had Jewish blood."
Looks like Russian diplomats are as skilled as Russian generals
Post by: King Zultan on May 02, 2022, 02:34:24 am
Post by: martinuzz on May 02, 2022, 03:57:22 am
Israel's minister of foreign affairs says Lavrov's words are 'unforgivable and scandalous', adding that 'the jews didn't murder themselves in the holocaust.
Post by: brewer bob on May 02, 2022, 05:37:34 am
From what I gathered Putin thinks that anyone that even sets foot in the Ukraine even for a second suddenly becomes a Nazi.
I wonder does Putin really think that anyone believes his denazification statements? Dude's had no problems in the 2000's mobilizing and using Russian neo-nazis against his opponents and leftist radicals. (https://theconversation.com/putins-fascists-the-russian-states-long-history-of-cultivating-homegrown-neo-nazis-178535)
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 02, 2022, 06:50:12 am
Post by: Cathar on May 02, 2022, 06:56:07 am
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/original/000/021/818/hitlerbook.JPG)
I admit that the "jews are secret nazis" made me laugh more than it should have.
As comical as it is though, russian population seems mostly supportive of Putin from what I hear from my contacts. I don't understand.
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 02, 2022, 07:05:46 am
I'd say it's around 30% to 50% support for Putin at this point.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 02, 2022, 09:16:28 am
I admit that the "jews are secret nazis" made me laugh more than it should have.
It is an uncommon (but not very rare) conspiracy theory in the Russian-speaking segment of the internet
Idea is - WW2 and the holocaust were organized by Jews with several goals - 1)Destroy the Christian World\White Race in the war. 2)Cleanse the Jewish nation from its weak\unloyal part 3) Make all world feel guilty and get money and political support for the creation of Israel.
And yep, this conspiracy theory claims that both Hitler and SS leadership were Jews.
Post by: Starver on May 02, 2022, 11:56:21 am
(Yeah. Right(!)...)
Post by: brewer bob on May 02, 2022, 01:12:06 pm
...so, both Totenkopf and Mazel Tov!
Sort of reminded me of the National Bolshevik Party (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bolshevik_Party) and their symbol, which is basically a Nazi flag with the swastika replaced with a hammer and sickle. (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/ca/National_Bolshevik_Party_flag.svg/1280px-National_Bolshevik_Party_flag.svg.png)
Post by: Quarque on May 02, 2022, 01:53:58 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on May 02, 2022, 01:59:54 pm
What 20 years of propaganda and no functioning democratic government ever does to a country. If there is ever a democratic government, undoing the shit he was Putin into the people's heads for so long will be hard.
I'd say it's around 30% to 50% support for Putin at this point.
But hey, those fuel dump and ammo dump explosions!
While I still think their commanders are just hiding the stuff they stole by blowing up the storage facilities, maybe 2% of Russia is violently fed up with Putin.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 02, 2022, 02:07:26 pm
But Ukraine is forming and training new units, Russia doesn't. Putin still didn't start a proper mobilization.
But hey, those fuel dump and ammo dump explosions!
While I still think their commanders are just hiding the stuff they stole by blowing up the storage facilities, maybe 2% of Russia is violently fed up with Putin.
According to the official Russian census, there are 2M ethnic Ukrainians (lol, yeah, sure). Even if huge a majority of them are assimilated into loyalty, we are still looking at thousands of potential saboteurs. And it is damn hard to fight saboteurs that look like you, talk like you, act like you.
Post by: hector13 on May 02, 2022, 03:07:22 pm
What baffles me most about this nazi thing is how vaguely the accusation is formulated. How exactly is Ukraine supposedly "nazi"? In the sense of a nationalistic / socialistic political party? In the sense of antisemitism? In the sense of expansionism? Dictatorship? Of course none of these particular aspects apply.. but I love how the Kremlin doesn't even bother to be specific with such a grave accusation.
In the sense that 80 years ago Russia lost millions of people to them and a resurgence of such is something to fight valiantly against.
It doesn’t matter that absolutely nothing of the current Ukrainian says isn’t Nazi, it matters that it’s an easier pill to swallow than “yeah we just want Crimea and easier access to it” or “the bread basket of the world should work for Russia!” or anything like that.
It is irony of the highest order that another justification for it is that Ukrainian culture and people don’t exist, they’re really Russian and Putin’s just bringing them back under the Russian wing, a la Nazi conquests of the ‘30s.
Post by: Cathar on May 02, 2022, 03:44:49 pm
What baffles me most about this nazi thing is how vaguely the accusation is formulated. How exactly is Ukraine supposedly "nazi"?
I think it is a rhetoric formula used by Russian propaganda. When the actual nazi invaded russia, they were reffered as french, because france under napoleon was a great empire that picked a fight with russia and was defeated earlier in their history.
Ukraine (and NATO by extention) are nazis in the russian imaginary to insure continuity in their mythos. They fill essencially the same role, the role of a big empire russia needs to fight off.
My humble guess.
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 02, 2022, 06:49:53 pm
So currently, we see a stalemate on the Southern front, a slow Russian advance on the Donbas front, and a slow Ukrainian advance in the Kharkiv area.
The Russian advance in the Donbas is almost certainly the exact same thing it was when they were advancing in the south - Ukranian forces using the open country to maneuver and inflict ruinous losses instead of getting smashed trying to defend a static line. Classic Soviet defensive tactics, which are classic because they work.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 02, 2022, 10:02:59 pm
I must share this masterpiece of Ukrainian war propaganda. Note that like in many areas, Ukrainian propaganda is mostly a decentralized effort. Our show business just went into the war mode.
Also, this comment section under this video is rather hilarious (sadly, many comments are deleted fast). You see, the artist in question always worked for the Russian-speaking market, generic pop songs for women and girls. He was far more popular in Russia than in Ukraine. And he has hundreds of thousands subscribers from Russia. And they are not happy :D.
PS. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tn0Rh06-bUg - And here is a typical Russian propaganda effort, stolen music and cringe of epic proportions
Post by: Strongpoint on May 03, 2022, 03:51:36 am
What can go wrong?
Post by: Strongpoint on May 04, 2022, 05:14:14 am
"I will mention one point, However, politicians who are now exaggerating the information campaign in Israel will unlikely want to hear it. Maybe it will be interesting for them. "In fact, Israeli mercenaries in Ukraine are actually standing shoulder to shoulder with Azov fighters," Zakharova said on Sputnik radio.
Guys, I don't know if it is cocaine or good old Vodka but keep going!!!
(Can you also mention that Xi Jinping looks like Winnie-the-Pooh?)
Post by: brewer bob on May 04, 2022, 06:04:32 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 04, 2022, 06:30:28 am
So, I gather Russia is really set to get Israel involved in the war then?
Russia may want to distract the world with a new Middle Eastern conflict and\or get Iranian support in the war with Ukraine.
Also, any anti-Israel or antisemitic statements by Russian politicians\officials will be extremely popular in Russia.
Post by: martinuzz on May 04, 2022, 08:01:43 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 04, 2022, 08:02:39 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 04, 2022, 08:29:26 am
Ria Novosti informs that HAMAS delegation arrived in Moscow for negotiations with the Russian MFA
*giggles*
If I were a Russian in Syria I would start worrying about unidentified aircraft blasting them to bits.
Post by: Cathar on May 04, 2022, 09:28:32 am
Israeli mercenaries are fighting alongside fighters from the Azov Regiment in Ukraine, said Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova
It's not new tho. You had Azov fighting with rabi in Mariupol since the beggining of the siege. You can easily google photos of jewinsh militias posing with Azov paramilitary. Very strange sight.
Russian military exercices, bringing people together better than pepsi.
Post by: nenjin on May 04, 2022, 10:27:39 am
Post by: Cathar on May 04, 2022, 10:32:55 am
I'm still hoping that he'd snap out of it, and maybe realize that if he failed with elite troops, war stock gear and alright economy, he'd probably fail with a horde of conscripts, WWII equipment and seashells for currency.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 04, 2022, 10:47:10 am
Anyone placing bets on whether Russian goes to full war mobilization for May 9th?
I am 75% sure that this will happen. It is either this or WMDs or some kind of ceasefire or Ukrainian forces in Crimea in September. If Russia won't mobilize, Ukraine will have a huge numerical advantage in a few months
Of course, it is unclear who will arm and train new Russian units should they mobilize. Perhaps China may sell them working military hardware for a "fair" price but the training will be more problematic.
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 04, 2022, 07:20:47 pm
They are really, really trying to piss off Israel. I hope they realize Israel has a red button too, that is not bound to NATO command structures.
Israel doesn't just have nuclear arms they don't admit to. They have an extremely advanced air force, including the F-35. They also don't have any Article 5 issues keeping them out the way the rest of NATO does. Even in pure conventional warfare, Israel would be a devastating addition to Ukraine's defense.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 04, 2022, 08:26:09 pm
They are really, really trying to piss off Israel. I hope they realize Israel has a red button too, that is not bound to NATO command structures.
Israel doesn't just have nuclear arms they don't admit to. They have an extremely advanced air force, including the F-35. They also don't have any Article 5 issues keeping them out the way the rest of NATO does. Even in pure conventional warfare, Israel would be a devastating addition to Ukraine's defense.
Israel is perfectly capable of launching an Offense on Russia.
They're less likely to hold back from crossing the Russian border.
Moscow's plan, obviously, is to get Middle Eastern countries to provide them troops.
Post by: hector13 on May 04, 2022, 08:57:08 pm
Post by: McTraveller on May 04, 2022, 09:22:45 pm
It makes me thankful we have term limits in the US; it limits the damage egomaniacs can do.
Of course, it doesn't help if there are other places without such limits... QED.
I really hope my kids don't have to live through a world war. Bad enough they've had a pandemic already.
Post by: Quarque on May 04, 2022, 10:04:07 pm
I still don't get what Putin is getting out of this, other than an ego trip.I can think of two things: distracting Russians from his incompetence in domestic leadership and pure spite.
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 04, 2022, 10:18:48 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on May 04, 2022, 10:29:25 pm
I still don't get what Putin is getting out of this, other than an ego trip.
It makes me thankful we have term limits in the US; it limits the damage egomaniacs can do.
Of course, it doesn't help if there are other places without such limits... QED.
I really hope my kids don't have to live through a world war. Bad enough they've had a pandemic already.
Putin seems to have more control of his country since the war started.
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 04, 2022, 10:53:42 pm
I still don't get what Putin is getting out of this, other than an ego trip.He thought he would win in a week.
It makes me thankful we have term limits in the US; it limits the damage egomaniacs can do.
Of course, it doesn't help if there are other places without such limits... QED.
I really hope my kids don't have to live through a world war. Bad enough they've had a pandemic already.
He thought that the world wouldn't care.
He thought his army wasn't so hilariously inept.
Here in Russia, we have a saying. "Индюк тоже думал, да в суп попал". "The turkey also thought, and ended up in a soup".
Слава социалистическим партизанам!I still don't get what Putin is getting out of this, other than an ego trip.
It makes me thankful we have term limits in the US; it limits the damage egomaniacs can do.
Of course, it doesn't help if there are other places without such limits... QED.
I really hope my kids don't have to live through a world war. Bad enough they've had a pandemic already.
Putin seems to have more control of his country since the war started.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 04, 2022, 10:58:19 pm
They are really, really trying to piss off Israel. I hope they realize Israel has a red button too, that is not bound to NATO command structures.
Israel doesn't just have nuclear arms they don't admit to. They have an extremely advanced air force, including the F-35. They also don't have any Article 5 issues keeping them out the way the rest of NATO does. Even in pure conventional warfare, Israel would be a devastating addition to Ukraine's defense.
Israel won't intervene in Ukraine in any meaningful way. But Israel can team up with Turkey (we live in a weird timeline) and solve the security risk called Assad's Syria
Post by: Starver on May 05, 2022, 07:00:54 am
Israel won't intervene in Ukraine in any meaningful way. But Israel can team up with Turkey (we live in a weird timeline) and solve the security risk called Assad's SyriaTalk about "strange bedfellows"... I'm not even sure how that would work, even with convoluted layers of "my enemy's enemy is my friend". But, as you say, this particular universe's savegame seems to have a (so far) nonfatal corruption in its entity-affinity datastructure .
(And given who else is annoyed at Turkey, and who else is annoyed with those, etc... Projecting forward, it's obvious that Israel and Palestine end up best of buds in the near future!)
Post by: brewer bob on May 05, 2022, 08:05:03 am
Projecting forward, it's obvious that Israel and Palestine end up best of buds in the near future!
That would be quite the plot twist!
Post by: scriver on May 05, 2022, 08:19:01 am
I still don't get what Putin is getting out of this, other than an ego trip.
It makes me thankful we have term limits in the US; it limits the damage egomaniacs can do.
Of course, it doesn't help if there are other places without such limits... QED.
I really hope my kids don't have to live through a world war. Bad enough they've had a pandemic already.
Putin seems to have more control of his country since the war started.
Pulling the reins tighter is not something you do when you're in control, it's what you do when you find you're not in as much control as you thought you were or at risk of losing control, in an attempt to regain control.
Post by: Il Palazzo on May 05, 2022, 08:44:00 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 05, 2022, 09:21:52 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
You have a city with 90% of its buildings being partly or completely destroyed. You have many homeless and hungry people in this city. You have bodies yet to be recovered.
You also have a crew of workers. What do you you do? You send them to change road signs from Ukrainian to Russian. Priorities! That one damned Nazi і must be removed and replaced with the proper, holy Russian и... It was worth to destroy Mariupol for this.
I can't understand how these monsters explain destroying a Russian-speaking city with ~50% ethnic Russians. How can they call it liberation...
Post by: hector13 on May 05, 2022, 12:25:05 pm
Are they living at all? Pfft, semantics.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 07, 2022, 09:21:34 am
Just a random snippet from Russian television that casually calls for the physical elimination of 5% of Ukrainians (~2M people)
Post by: Quarque on May 07, 2022, 09:53:09 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on May 08, 2022, 11:44:01 am
Haha.
I was about to say, isn't the rank of colonel awarded to every Russian making it through Kindergarten?
https://twitter.com/The_IntelHub/status/1523305708451622912
Soon
Post by: brewer bob on May 08, 2022, 05:21:14 pm
Post by: Starver on May 08, 2022, 09:01:55 pm
Insofar as "kids dressed as soldiers", I'm less condemnational about. I remember dressing as a pirate[1]when I was 9ish. I don't think either myself or my parents[2] wished to force anyone to walk the plank. It's no more (or less) reprehensible than those drone-shot footages of police vehicles or tealights or general groups of building residents being arranged into the giant Z-patterns in what has basically been made the equivalent of stepping out of your front door/leaning out of your window/standing on your balcony and performing the ritual ofclapping/bashing-pots-and-pans for the country's healthcare workers, every Thursday evening at 8PM or whenever. No doubt (from what we hear about what they hear) it's a 'laudible attempt to applaud those who are undertaking a good cause', and it's manipulation from above that has engineered the 'choice' to go for Z-marked armoured vehicles and kid-sized 'uniforms'. And we already have trouble with the ideas from the apex of the Russian Realpolitik; this neither dents nor embosses the form it already inhabits, to any great degree.
(The annual parading of military-themed displays is something that we expect of Russia, and other regimes of an authoritarian ilk, and do not forget the outrage when Biden's predecessor mooted the possibility of his very own military parade through the streets of D.C. after being inspired (IIRC) by some visit to NK/wherever, IIRC, in one of the many ways he seemed to be a sponge for Cult Of Personality performance-pieces.)
So I'm not outraged. Par for the course, and to solve just this one aspect is impossible, it needs all kinds of detadicalisation to be applied, de-brainwash the state-media-fed population and give them the ability to both access and believe true-and-credible news, to give them the opportunity to appreciate a less filtered and less one-sided viewpoint and make it possible to decide for themselves whether they still supported the fascistic 'denazification' or not.
Then I'll be happy to condemn those who display the demi-Hakenkreuz prominently, get their children to ride replica tanks, etc. Just as any attempt to traditionally celebrate Empire Day in modern-day Britain[3] should be frowned upon.
[1] Not consistently. It was for a particular special occasion. Honest, ye lubbers! Aarrrrgh!
[2] Who I'm fairly sure only assisted me in my characterisation, and did not force the theme upon me for their (or their political masters'!) own gratification.
[3] With schoolchildren parading tableaux vivants of the various dependant nations, maybe here a trailer of stereotypical Canadian gold-panners and Mounties (meh...), but there a float of spear-holding, grass-skirted children in blackface/bodypaint depicting one or other of the African territories. Back when that was a thing, it wasn't a conscious insult... probably considered to be honouring the enlightened former-benighted 'savages', and very few of the adults who organised this would have known much more than their charges about the oppressions exerted upon traditional civilisations in an attempt to (re)civilise them to a more recognisable template. No, they couldn't have realistically known better. But once they could, then it's something to condemn them for, to their faces or otherwise.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 08, 2022, 09:28:17 pm
Quote
Insofar as "kids dressed as soldiers", I'm less condemnational about. I remember dressing as a pirate[1]when I was 9ish. I don't think either myself or my parents[2] wished to force anyone to walk the plank.
Look, if a kid is dressed as a soldier wearing a tank costume, there are many possibilities
1) A kid wants to put on such a costume, parents (or other adults) helped him\her to get such costume. It is perfectly normal.
2) Militaristic-minded parents put this kind of costume on their child, it is less normal but usually those parents just see this as a proper upbringing.
3) A group of militaristic-minded parents organizes a joined event with many children wearing military uniform\costumes. Here we are entering into a crinhy and somewhat dangerous territory. For example, far-rights love to do such kind of stuff all over the world.
4) Some organization\institution puts this kind of costume on a group of children. NOT NORMAL. Especially if this is a governmental institution
5) State mandates to dress children this way on some occasions. Hello, fascism.
To be fair, Russia is yet to reach #5. This kind of stuff is encouraged but not enforced. The video above is an initiative of this one kindergarten's staff. If young women get such ideas... It is very worrisome.
Post by: Starver on May 08, 2022, 10:19:39 pm
(One thing the Nazis were good at was uniforms (https://scholarworks.iu.edu/dspace/handle/2022/23218). Assuming you were the kind of person who was complient to them. - Those that weren't tended to get various badges, instead.)
Post by: KittyTac on May 08, 2022, 10:22:11 pm
That's a seriously disturbing clip. Kids dressed as soldiers and tanks. Even if (or especially if) that's a yearly thing to have kids participate in the May 9th parade, it's disgusting.It's not a yearly thing as far as I know, but now it's a thing you know why.
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 08, 2022, 11:05:52 pm
(One thing the Nazis were good at was uniforms (https://scholarworks.iu.edu/dspace/handle/2022/23218).)
Nazi uniforms were actually quite terrible. They were designed for the literal parade ground and were absolute shit in the field. Perhaps most importantly, it took as much labor to produce 4-10 US/UK/USSR uniforms (depending on the exact bit of kit) as it did to make one Nazi equivalent. It was also worse at distributing weight, more uncomfortable, and less durable.
Post by: Starver on May 09, 2022, 03:20:18 am
Yeah, impractical[1], but as far as appearances went they were Das Boss, right?
(One thing the Nazis were good at was uniforms (https://scholarworks.iu.edu/dspace/handle/2022/23218).)
Nazi uniforms were actually quite terrible. They were designed for the literal parade ground and were absolute shit in the field. Perhaps most importantly, it took as much labor to produce 4-10 US/UK/USSR uniforms (depending on the exact bit of kit) as it did to make one Nazi equivalent. It was also worse at distributing weight, more uncomfortable, and less durable.
[1] And some went overboard with the totenkopf insignia...
Post by: brewer bob on May 09, 2022, 06:23:31 am
That's a seriously disturbing clip. Kids dressed as soldiers and tanks. Even if (or especially if) that's a yearly thing to have kids participate in the May 9th parade, it's disgusting.It's not a yearly thing as far as I know, but now it's a thing you know why.
Ah, there just was somebody on Twitter saying it was a yearly thing, but maybe they just meant the parade in general and I misunderstood.
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 09, 2022, 07:16:14 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 09, 2022, 07:45:47 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 09, 2022, 08:32:09 am
Post by: heydude6 on May 09, 2022, 10:51:15 am
My memory is a bit fuzzy, so there are holes in my story, but I think a good question to ask is whether Russia has cancelled the aerial portion due to weather before.
Post by: Starver on May 09, 2022, 11:06:22 am
Could be an interesting little project for some news analyst, and I can't imagine there isn't someone prepared to do it... Possibly someon already (ouwith a government job where they're actually employed to do such telemeteorology) has a sideline of having all this info at hand anyway because I know from personal experience that there's much more niche data-collections going on. ;)
Post by: tonnot98 on May 09, 2022, 05:23:55 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 09, 2022, 06:02:39 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on May 09, 2022, 10:46:23 pm
I'm just waiting to hear more about warehouses and oil depots "mysteriously" burning down
Maybe the Russians cancelled the Air Show because they were afraid that the Jets would "mysteriously" crash?
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 09, 2022, 10:53:32 pm
I remember the air parade in my city being cancelled because of rain before.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 10, 2022, 12:45:19 am
I'm just waiting to hear more about warehouses and oil depots "mysteriously" burning down
Maybe the Russians cancelled the Air Show because they were afraid that the Jets would "mysteriously" crash?
It may be the case. Imagine what a single Ukrainian saboteur with a manpad somewhere on a roof could do
Post by: EuchreJack on May 10, 2022, 04:43:51 am
I'm just waiting to hear more about warehouses and oil depots "mysteriously" burning down
Maybe the Russians cancelled the Air Show because they were afraid that the Jets would "mysteriously" crash?
It may be the case. Imagine what a single Ukrainian saboteur with a manpad somewhere on a roof could do
Or a laser pointer.
Post by: Starver on May 10, 2022, 05:26:57 pm
Quote from: The Guardian
[...]the New York Times reports. [...]
[...] she admitted, dressed in black except for a fanny pack with a rainbow belt. [...]
Before reading properly, it confused me a bit. Even for the Grauniad[1], the writing was strange. But then I realised how it says it is quoting the NY Times's[2] write-up.
Because a "fanny pack" would be described as a "bum bag" in British English. And though "Bum bag" might sound strange to a Leftpondian, for various reasons, "Fanny Pack" is almost guaranteed to raise a titter in all but the most oblivious Rightpondian. ;)
Shall we say this is the lighter side of the various emotions in this thread, however?!?
[1] Bevause teh papper si faomusly laible too variuos tyops.
[2] Not the same as "The Times".
Post by: nenjin on May 11, 2022, 02:00:11 pm
Russian bridging attempt fails with ludicrous casualties (https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524413089579511808)
How the fuck do you lose 32 armored vehicles in one fight in 2022 as one of the supposedly top militaries in the world? That's basically an entire BTG rendered combat-ineffective. Not even counting human losses which I have no idea, 150? 200? More?
This shit looks like the aftermath of a Company of Heroes map. Unreal.
I think Russia has, not so secretly, always half-assed everything and used bluster to cover for it. From Nuclear Power Plants to the armed forces and hardware, it feels like half of Russia's perceived power is the belief in it, rather than something more tangible like a well-disciplined army, well-maintained hardware and a competent command structure. I'm sure the US and others have done fucked up plenty in their own theaters too but....man it just seems like amateur hour over there.
Post by: Cthulhu on May 11, 2022, 03:17:28 pm
We've all fucked up, but this is nuts. An entire battalion destroyed (Some other counts are putting it at over 50 vehicles in the photos, plus doubtless some underwater), probably well over 200 soldiers dead in one engagement, if this happened to the US in one of our asymmetric military adventures I feel like it'd be war-ending from public opinion and political backlash alone.
Post by: nenjin on May 11, 2022, 03:47:21 pm
Just, not, you know....in the last 50 years.
Post by: Cthulhu on May 11, 2022, 06:05:54 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 11, 2022, 10:19:58 pm
I would say we probably experienced some shit like that in Vietnam, easily. Just might not have made the news for moral and war support reasons. But being trounced by a tactically and numerically inferior foe? Yeah I feel like we've eaten shit like that before.
Just, not, you know....in the last 50 years.
Vietnam's a terrible analogy for this. US forces did quite well in the actual fighting there, with the biggest problem being the South Vietnamese government being corrupt and incompetent as hell so their army formations (and it was a war of armies, not the inept soldiers owned by militia that pop culture has turned it into) kept getting owned. As large as US numbers were in that war, the ARVN was a much bigger player in both troops deployed and troops lost. Russia is going this basically alone, and they're the ones getting wrecked.
While we don't know what Russia's casualties in this war are, it is highly likely that they've already reached a pretty significant percentage of the US Vietnam casualties of 58,000 KIA. Except Russia's done it in in four months, while the US spent twelve years. I've said this before, but if Ukrainian claims of Russia's casualties are anywhere close to accurate, the only historical parallels to that loss rate are places like the Somme or Verdun. Or, and most relevant to the region, the engagements of this war are the bloodiest that Russia (or Ukraine!) have been involved in since Kursk in 1943.
Post by: Cthulhu on May 11, 2022, 10:36:06 pm
And yeah, I am concerned by the way quality info on Ukrainian losses never seems to get any visible pull the way Russian losses do. People just don't say and don't look, and that makes me worry. I still don't buy the "US is using Ukraine as cannon fodder against Russia" thing for the reasons I previously brought up, not necessarily that it's not happening but that the implication behind that rhetoric is that capitulation is a realistic option for Ukraine after Russia's straight up said their plan is to "punish" Ukraine and destroy it as a nation.
Post by: hector13 on May 11, 2022, 10:49:18 pm
Corruption's definitely been eating them alive. I've been cautious about calling them a paper tiger, since an asymmetrical war against Ukraine's not the same as a full-scale regional war and they're not fighting it like one, but I dunno.
We've all fucked up, but this is nuts. An entire battalion destroyed (Some other counts are putting it at over 50 vehicles in the photos, plus doubtless some underwater), probably well over 200 soldiers dead in one engagement, if this happened to the US in one of our asymmetric military adventures I feel like it'd be war-ending from public opinion and political backlash alone.
You’re assuming the Russian news is going to carry this as a story.
If you were a Russian news editor, would you show that?
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 11, 2022, 11:12:51 pm
Purely numbers-wise Korea might be a better comparison for the US, though I dunno what the political backlash was. The US military was pretty weak at the start of the war and they got hammered until they could establish the Pusan perimeter, thousands of casualties in the first couple months. Still low compared to whatever the hell Russia has been losing and still a completely different situation, but in terms of "has the US military ever gotten their asses handed to them in a horrible mass-casualty kind of way since WW2"
And yeah, I am concerned by the way quality info on Ukrainian losses never seems to get any visible pull the way Russian losses do. People just don't say and don't look, and that makes me worry. I still don't buy the "US is using Ukraine as cannon fodder against Russia" thing for the reasons I previously brought up, not necessarily that it's not happening but that the implication behind that rhetoric is that capitulation is a realistic option for Ukraine after Russia's straight up said their plan is to "punish" Ukraine and destroy it as a nation.
We aren't hearing about Ukrainian losses because they're maintaining operational security. That's the same reason why the photographed Russian vehicle losses keep taking sudden leaps, because they're not getting counted until the regular military moves on and allows people to get in and take pictures. So you get a lot of wrecks all at once.
Normally you would try to estimate them by looking at the other side's propaganda claims, but Russia's claims are a mixture of outright nonsense (in several categories they claim the Ukranians have lost more equipment than they started the war with), and photos of the same wreck from different angles to make it look like multiple wrecks. The Russians not having a lot of fodder for their Tiktok soldiers to brag about might well say something.
Post by: Cthulhu on May 11, 2022, 11:37:13 pm
Corruption's definitely been eating them alive. I've been cautious about calling them a paper tiger, since an asymmetrical war against Ukraine's not the same as a full-scale regional war and they're not fighting it like one, but I dunno.
We've all fucked up, but this is nuts. An entire battalion destroyed (Some other counts are putting it at over 50 vehicles in the photos, plus doubtless some underwater), probably well over 200 soldiers dead in one engagement, if this happened to the US in one of our asymmetric military adventures I feel like it'd be war-ending from public opinion and political backlash alone.
You’re assuming the Russian news is going to carry this as a story.
If you were a Russian news editor, would you show that?
That's true, and also raises another interesting question. Unless literally every Russian in Ukraine dies somehow, these guys are gonna have to go home eventually. I'm sure more reliable info is still leaking into Russia, they're not airtight, but what happens when the eyewitnesses start telling their friends and family how it really went down? That scenario is essentially what happened at the start of the Russian revolution, soldiers coming home from WW1 disillusioned and enraged with their government.
Post by: bloop_bleep on May 11, 2022, 11:37:55 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on May 11, 2022, 11:57:24 pm
Russian bridging attempt fails with ludicrous casualties (https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1524413089579511808)
How the fuck do you lose 32 armored vehicles in one fight in 2022 as one of the supposedly top militaries in the world? That's basically an entire BTG rendered combat-ineffective. Not even counting human losses which I have no idea, 150? 200? More?
The Russian military doesn't know how to wage a modern war. What they are good at:
1) Quick military-political operations against an unprepared enemy using their actually well-trained and well-equipped paratroopers and special forces. See Crimea 2014 or subjugation of Kazakhstan protests in January of this year
2) Turning cities into piles of rubble with a ridiculous amount of artillery\airforce and then capturing the smoking remains.
3) Terrorizing cities with cruise\ballistic missile strikes (they launched 2000+ of those since the start of the war)
Everything else is mediocre to bad.
The only reasons why their army didn't collapse yet are: a huge advantage in air support, more numerous and modern artillery, more numerous and modern tank\IFV fleet. The artillery problem is in the process of being fixed with more NATO artillery arriving.
Ukrainian infantry is already more numerous, better trained (on average) and better equipped (on average)
BTW - https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html - here you can see what is known to be supplied to Ukraine. Keep in mind that most of those require weeks for training and then getting to the frontline, we'll see the effect of those in July or even later.
Russia has no chance to win unless they either use WMD or start full mobilization AND get Chinise military hardware to arm those poor mobilized souls with.
Post by: scriver on May 12, 2022, 02:47:57 am
But maybe Sick Man of Europe
Post by: Starver on May 12, 2022, 06:44:58 am
but Russia's claims are a mixture of outright nonsense (in several categories they claim the Ukranians have lost more equipment than they started the war with), and photos of the same wreck from different angles to make it look like multiple wrecks.I say we need to coin a variation of the German Tank Problem and call it the Russian Tank Problem. (Or Ukrainian, but I prefer to lay the issue down as a problem for Russia, as opposed to posed by the Germans.)
My personal headcanon is all the exploding factories, dysfunctional tanks, cancelled airshows are the result of the work of one Nutjob Pavel, a man who has been touring Russia for a decade to satiate his compulsive need to strategically loosen nuts on vital equipment.From day 1, I must admit that I've been willing into existence some Avengers-level super-capable person or team[1] that would do something minor but widespread like (and this how specific I was) loosening or removing the nuts on Russian vehicle's front-left wheel in individually plausible ways but on every one that advanced onto Ukrainian territory.
Perhaps mix it up (loosening the connectors on the right track-laying vehicle's track, deflating the nose-wheel of planes, make something really rattle in a helicopter, replace the explosives in missiles and munitions with custard) but always not (intrinsically) lethally, just hyper-troublesome to make a point.
Yes, the psychology behind this is very much "I'd want someone this absurdly capable to also be absurdly benign". Is that a huge pie in the sky, just above the porcine aviator and slightly below the bovine currently in trans-lunar transfer orbit? I'm actually not sure whether it'd be a good idea to grant me the godlike powers needed to accomplish such feats (or allow to accomplish, through proxies I thus enabled), because it's neither full disruptive power unleashed in time to actually save everyone (of all stripes) nor guaranteed to remain so idealistically benevolent.
But it's how my mind works. The not-particularly-dark bits[2] of my mind, anyway. And drowning in pure fantacism.
[1] Doctor Strange could do it, I'm sure Stark would have the drones to do it, Ant-Man would have a good way of doing it, a reality-changing skill would of course work... Not sure about the 'big hitters' like Hulk or Thor would have the capability to be so subtle. Moving over to DCU, Batman would have been prepared to do it, I could see several others of the League as useful, and of course the speedsters from both genres would find it simple (if tiring?) to accomplish in an instant. Yes, I've (wishfully) thought more about this than is healthy. Unless it's the one way I could have helped by actually making it happen by psychic force. Maybe it just needs a few more people thinking about it before our putative Hero(es) realise it's a thing they should do.
[2] Meaning that I know that there are the counterpart bits that I also know about. Smaller, but significant, and I don't think I have the Vimes-like ability to internally "watch the watcher". Yet to be practically tested, of course. Unless it was and the decision involved the capability being retroactively reverted to a time before my monomaniacal pursuit of World Domination. (I'm not doing much to convince anyone to grant me access to such amazingly all-encompassing powers, am I?)
Post by: Cthulhu on May 12, 2022, 08:21:42 am
The greatest spy thriller in history is being written live in Russia right now and we'll never get to read it.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 12, 2022, 08:57:38 am
Russia is actively selling stolen grain. I am even happy that they are doing this, it will lessen the impact of this war on poor countries.
Of course, with the way how international law works, I fail to see any realistic punishment for Russia any time soon...
Post by: chaotic skies on May 12, 2022, 09:18:49 am
You could take down Putin and other government/military leaders, but a power vacuum of that scale is terrifying, and such attempts have failed to catch everyone in the past.
You could keep the current sanctions, but you either starve the Russian populous until they overthrow their government (which could be very messy given the current administration's willingness to deploy nuclear weapons), starve them until they break, or starve them until they get mad and lash out at the outside world - it all depends on the propaganda inside the country.
I guess you could do a post-WWII Japan type of deal where you force the government to match someone else's systems and beliefs, but it's not guaranteed to work with a country so big.
I don't know enough to weigh in on the war other than 'war bad,' and I barely know enough about international history and law to know what the consequences for the Russian admin will be, but I can see why it's a complicated and hard thing to figure out.
It makes me sad that the most effective deterrents for this type of thing likely involve huge civilian casualties.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 12, 2022, 01:27:49 pm
I'm honestly all for making the punitive measures massive to make sure this doesn't happen again, but I don't know what those would look like without major civilian suffering. Which is arguably a punitive measure of its own, but one I'm against - no need to punish the people stuck on Putin's Wild Ride.
I understand your position. We always look at the shit some country does and separate the government from the nation. It looks even more reasonable in the case of authoritarian governments.
Problem is that Russians ARE too blame with only exception being several %s of adults + children. Russians are guilty as a nation. And they should pay for their crime as a nation. Otherwise, they will never learn that war is bad and war crimes are even worse.
Post by: Cthulhu on May 12, 2022, 01:38:37 pm
Putin will not be deterred from a course he's already taken, but the sanctions will eventually (I've heard Q3 this year is when the measures he's taking to keep the economy afloat will run out of runway) destroy Russia's capacity to wage war against Ukraine.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 12, 2022, 02:02:16 pm
I disagree with collective punishment of the Russian people but also innocent people are already dying because there's a war going on and that's what happens. There's no way to navigate this situation that doesn't lead to massive human suffering, but I'd prefer we take the path that ends in Russia not destroying Ukraine.
There will be no need in some special collective punishment. It will happen naturally. I have seen good, kind, well-educated and morally stable with post-war PTSD from the war of lower intensity than the current one. Not a pretty sight, people need time and care to return to semi-normality.
Now imagine Russian soldiers returning home. Those weren't the best of people before the war and now... after tasting war crimes...
In Russia, there will be no hotlines, there will be no crowdfunded and\or governmental programs to help them to reintegrate. There will be no respect or even some kind of meaningful social benefits (look at Russian ww2 veterans, Afghanistan veterans, Chechen Wars veterans...). And there will be a recession, so no jobs either.
Also, all of Russian radicals won't get what they want. Even if half of Ukraine will be annexed and some kind of ceasefire will be achieved, they'll see it as a defeat. They'll want more. They need complete destruction of the Ukrainian nation, nothing less. They'll start looking for the answer for the eternal Russian question "Who is guilty?"
I am sure that Russia will see a civil war soonish. This or they will start WW3
Post by: Grim Portent on May 12, 2022, 02:23:28 pm
Post by: nenjin on May 12, 2022, 02:52:44 pm
1. Sanctions economically cripple Russia over the longer-term, and the country essentially becomes the European version of NK. No one will trade with them, no one will talk to them and they're forced into even more dictatorial measures to keep the population from revolting.
2. Sanctions economically cripple Russia over the longer-term, and the country essentially becomes the European version of NK. The population decides they've had enough of this shit and there's a coup. Russia faces a civil war between the remnants of the central authority and whatever factions rise up to attempt to take the reins. The rest of the world finds out about it in detail a couple years later.
While this would suck for the Russian populace, I prefer both of those to the rest of the world going "Well, I guess there's nothing we can do. Guess we'll go back to business as usual!" I don't want a future where Putin can continue to participate on the world stage as a first world nation after this fucking atrocity that had no reason to happen other than greed, paranoia and nationalism.
Post by: heydude6 on May 12, 2022, 02:55:41 pm
Post by: nenjin on May 12, 2022, 03:00:21 pm
If we’re brainstorming what to do to Russia after the war ends, why don’t we just denazify it like we denazified post-WW2 Germany?
Too much bitter blood. Overseeing the de-Nazification of Russia would just entrench the anti-Western sentiments already present in the Russian cultural mindset. And who the hell wants responsibility for policing Russia? If they're this savage outside their own borders, imagine what they'd do when they're "defending" their own soil against foreigners.
Post by: martinuzz on May 12, 2022, 03:17:23 pm
If we’re brainstorming what to do to Russia after the war ends, why don’t we just denazify it like we denazified post-WW2 Germany?You mean so they will hang their collective heads in shame for 4 generations? That would require most of their men of working age being killed or crippled in battle, a lot of their cities carpet-firebombed, and their women raped by the Russians. At least that's how the Allies denazified Germany.
But yeah, I agree that we cannot let Putin and Russian authorities get away with this and continue business as usual with Russia.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 12, 2022, 03:26:45 pm
If we’re brainstorming what to do to Russia after the war ends, why don’t we just denazify it like we denazified post-WW2 Germany?
You mean invade Russia, carpet-bomb Russian cities and place occupation forces in the ruins of Moscow? Russian nukes say "nope"
I don't think that Russia can go full North Korea. Yes, Stalin managed to build a huge totalitarian state but he had a strong unifying ideology to do this. Modern Russia doesn't. "Russians are the greatest people ever" is a bad unifying ideology for a multiethnic country of a huge size.
Post by: nenjin on May 12, 2022, 03:40:11 pm
Quote
"Russians are the greatest people ever" is a bad unifying ideology for a multiethnic country of a huge size.
Someone should probably tell Russia this. Although they seem to play pretty fast and loose with their definition of "ethnic Russian."
Besides, if you can't culturally unite your people under the banner of shared heritage, you can always unite them under the banner of virtually everyone being your enemy. Which is how NK operates. And when you've, ya know, made yourself the least popular 1st world nation, that's not a hard sell.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 12, 2022, 04:17:55 pm
Quote from: nenjin link=topic=179710.msg8373481#msg8373481
Someone should probably tell Russia this. Although they seem to play pretty fast and loose with their definition of "ethnic Russian."
Well, Russian propaganda plays the "if you speak Russian you are a Russian. Even if you disagree." card very heavily. But Russian population is another story
A few days ago, I watched a youtube video of Muslims of Moscow praying on the streets during Eid al-Fitr (Moscow has only 6 mosques...) and comments are... full of islamophobia, racial slurs and stuff like "while our guys are fighting against nazism, those parasites are doing nothing useful."
Sure, youtube comments are youtube comments, one of the vilest places of the internet, but tensions between ethnic groups of Russia are very, very real and detoriation of the economy won't make it better.
Post by: nenjin on May 12, 2022, 05:26:50 pm
Post by: brewer bob on May 12, 2022, 05:43:46 pm
tensions between ethnic groups of Russia are very, very real and detoriation of the economy won't make it better.
I don't know what's the current situation after all the "anti-extremist" measures against neo-Nazis (of course used against Putin's opponents in the end), but in the 2000's (90's too, I guess?) things were very messed up with all the neo-Nazi thugs/gangs murdering people. Hard to imagine that general attitudes have changed much since then.
Edit: It's not so long since a pro-Kremlin party organized a meeting for the European far-right in 2015 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32009360) (attendants included Greek Golden Dawn fascists, British BNP members and German neo-Nazis). It's also not a big secret that Russia has funded European far-right populists (of whom many are outright fascists).
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 13, 2022, 01:42:16 am
Putin will likely fall by the end of the year. No idea what happens next. If everything goes to shit, I live near Kazakhstan which is at least more stable so I can flee there and from there to somewhere else.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 13, 2022, 02:32:30 am
The minorities have it bad, but they are not nearly as large as Strongpoint is implying.
Even according to the Russian latest 2010s census, 20% of citizens of Russia are of different ethnicity. Even if assume that half of the rest are Russians in anything but name, we are still talking about around 10M people to stir trouble. It is A LOT
But the Russian census is questionable (like in the 2002 census there were 3M Ukrainians in Russia, in 2010 - 2M. What happened to 1M of people during 8 years? Political climate changed, that's what happened). 12 years is enough for a new generation to grow up (and ethnic minorities have higher fertility). There were significant migration to Russia from Central Asia (both legal and illegal)
Post by: Starver on May 13, 2022, 03:31:05 am
[...] I live near Kazakhstan which is at least more stable [...]
Not to besmirch a whole country (either of them), but to consider Kazachstan as more stable than one's own... It's almost humorous, in the circumstances, except that it involves real people's livelihoods (including yours, Max).
No serious point, for fear that I'm making it a far too serious point, but it gave me a somewhat morbid chuckle to read that being said.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 13, 2022, 03:42:41 am
[...] I live near Kazakhstan which is at least more stable [...]
Not to besmirch a whole country (either of them), but to consider Kazachstan as more stable than one's own... It's almost humorous, in the circumstances, except that it involves real people's livelihoods (including yours, Max).
No serious point, for fear that I'm making it a far too serious point, but it gave me a somewhat morbid chuckle to read that being said.
We are talking about the country that got hundreds of protestors shot dead a few months ago. We are talking about the regime that was saved only by a swift Russian military intervention.
Kazakhstan (and Central Asia in general) will be anything but stable should Russia destabilize.
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 13, 2022, 03:48:39 am
Many of those are e.g Tatars who are basically Russified at this point. It's way more than half. I don't really see them going independent. Seems unlikely.The minorities have it bad, but they are not nearly as large as Strongpoint is implying.
Even according to the Russian latest 2010s census, 20% of citizens of Russia are of different ethnicity. Even if assume that half of the rest are Russians in anything but name, we are still talking about around 10M people to stir trouble. It is A LOT
But the Russian census is questionable (like in the 2002 census there were 3M Ukrainians in Russia, in 2010 - 2M. What happened to 1M of people during 8 years? Political climate changed, that's what happened). 12 years is enough for a new generation to grow up (and ethnic minorities have higher fertility). There were significant migration to Russia from Central Asia (both legal and illegal)
As for Kazakhstan, Tokaev recently passed a few reforms in response to the unrest apparently. He knows he's doomed if and when Russia catches fire if he keeps up the extreme authoritarianism. At the very least they won't prevent international flights out of Kazakhstan. I don't intend to stay there very long.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 13, 2022, 09:27:17 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 13, 2022, 09:44:52 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 13, 2022, 09:59:57 am
Heard about that. Didn't hear a word about separatist sentiment in the present however.
Well, it is hard to evaluate separatist sentiments when expressing separatist sentiments is a criminal offense.
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 13, 2022, 10:05:20 am
And yet we know about separatism in other large countries, even though separatism is also illegal in most/all of them.Heard about that. Didn't hear a word about separatist sentiment in the present however.
Well, it is hard to evaluate separatist sentiments when expressing separatist sentiments is a criminal offense.
Post by: Starver on May 13, 2022, 12:48:57 pm
It isn't illegal to be a member of the Scottish National Party (arguably separatist), nor... any more... Sinn Fein[1][2] in Northern Ireland. Plaid Cymru is a valid Welsh party (I think there's others, like Plaid Glyndŵr), and Mebyon Kernow does that job for the P-Celtic peninsula that is just to the south. They are all 'separatist',
Whereas look at the pro-democracy/remain-unsubsumed movements in Hong Kong. Pretty much legislated out of existence, even the slightest "actually, I like it how it was" that really isn't anything comparable to actual regionalised nationalism.
Though I really wasn't considering the threat of separatism/nationalism, it was just that the Kazakh government is still very much of a variety of government where "stability" is only through some degree of oppression.
Now, to you, Max, you might calculate that it's a valid move to make if Russia goes to a level of intollerability. That even if it drives the Kazakh situation in the same direction that you'll get a grace period as you make a transition to whatever the follow-up destination is that you have in mind. But from what I heard of government crackdowns at the beginning of this year, any notable 'stability' compared to Russia is a "damning with faint praise" situation. You probably have your ears closer to the ground than us, of course, assuming you're not being kept in the dark by censorship, so it's just a 'typical western' viewpoint of mine that might be wrong.
((BTW, one of the rounds in a particularly entertaining celebrity quiz show thingummy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Osman%27s_House_of_Games) is "Where Is Kazakhstan?". Because Kazakhstan is a good placeholder concept for "I know it exists, but couldn't find it on a map", which is the general premise of the round. i.e. finding things on a map, though I don't think it has ever been Kazakhstan... or the Central African Republic. ;) For the ninth-largest country in the world (and with many other interesting distinctions), that says more about those who couldn't answer such a question than about Kazakhstan itself!))
Anyhoo. I hope you never need to go with your plans, but also that they go as well as possible if you do actually have to commit to them. It also makes me realise how relatively comfortable my own situation is...
[1] In fact, they're the ones that are being least childish, at the moment, compared with the non-separatist (by current standards!) DUP.
[2] However, being a member of any recognisable flavour of /New/Provisional/Whatever IRA is not. Links to SF aren't quite as joined-at-the-hip as they were, which was how the political arm stopped being proscribed.
Post by: Cthulhu on May 13, 2022, 05:41:40 pm
75% though this isn't a complete map. White is first try, orange is second or third, red is missed, green isn't in the quiz. Some of those were misclicks I swear. Also I know a bunch of the smaller ones, I bet I would've got a better score if they were in (https://i.imgur.com/iRZcnJ0.png)
Post by: Strongpoint on May 13, 2022, 10:16:25 pm
The Institute for the Study of War warns that Putin probably will annex the occupied parts of south and east Ukraine and use the move to threaten Ukraine and allies with a nuclear attack, the Guardian reports
Well, if the world will allow a precedent of nuclear power randomly declaring some territories theirs and annexing it, we are so screwed. China will get bigger real fast. And countries like Iran will do ANYTHING to get their own nukes
_______________
Spoiler: Behold! Russian submarine tanks (click to show/hide)
Post by: Starver on May 14, 2022, 12:39:09 am
The possibility is something that Russia is supposed to be prepared for (https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2019/Fall/4Grau19.pdf). Supposed to be. This doesn't look like the orderly "50 metres apart, affixed with snorkels", at first glance. Perhaps someone decided to wing it (after or during the bridging unit being targetted), perhaps the attack precipitated matters and the crews prefered a bit of 'soft water' protection over standing in the 'open' under bombardment.Spoiler: Behold! Russian submarine tanks (click to show/hide)
I suspect (totally without professional experience in these matters) that a failure to properly train and reherse might have been part of the issue. Still, if the crews have the emergency breathing gear (if not the chance to have a go in the escape-simulators) there might not have been so much risk of actual drowning, in the undoubted mayhem, leaving it up to opposition artillery/dronestrikes/whatever to cause any subsequent casualties.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 14, 2022, 01:29:02 am
My sincere gratitude to Lavrov for his Hitler was a Jew interview.
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 14, 2022, 04:57:26 am
Degrees of separatism, and degrees of suppression.We actually know quite a lot about Chinese separatism, and China puts way more effort into suppressing such things than Russia.
It isn't illegal to be a member of the Scottish National Party (arguably separatist), nor... any more... Sinn Fein[1][2] in Northern Ireland. Plaid Cymru is a valid Welsh party (I think there's others, like Plaid Glyndŵr), and Mebyon Kernow does that job for the P-Celtic peninsula that is just to the south. They are all 'separatist',
Whereas look at the pro-democracy/remain-unsubsumed movements in Hong Kong. Pretty much legislated out of existence, even the slightest "actually, I like it how it was" that really isn't anything comparable to actual regionalised nationalism.
Though I really wasn't considering the threat of separatism/nationalism, it was just that the Kazakh government is still very much of a variety of government where "stability" is only through some degree of oppression.
Now, to you, Max, you might calculate that it's a valid move to make if Russia goes to a level of intollerability. That even if it drives the Kazakh situation in the same direction that you'll get a grace period as you make a transition to whatever the follow-up destination is that you have in mind. But from what I heard of government crackdowns at the beginning of this year, any notable 'stability' compared to Russia is a "damning with faint praise" situation. You probably have your ears closer to the ground than us, of course, assuming you're not being kept in the dark by censorship, so it's just a 'typical western' viewpoint of mine that might be wrong.
((BTW, one of the rounds in a particularly entertaining celebrity quiz show thingummy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Osman%27s_House_of_Games) is "Where Is Kazakhstan?". Because Kazakhstan is a good placeholder concept for "I know it exists, but couldn't find it on a map", which is the general premise of the round. i.e. finding things on a map, though I don't think it has ever been Kazakhstan... or the Central African Republic. ;) For the ninth-largest country in the world (and with many other interesting distinctions), that says more about those who couldn't answer such a question than about Kazakhstan itself!))
Anyhoo. I hope you never need to go with your plans, but also that they go as well as possible if you do actually have to commit to them. It also makes me realise how relatively comfortable my own situation is...
[1] In fact, they're the ones that are being least childish, at the moment, compared with the non-separatist (by current standards!) DUP.
[2] However, being a member of any recognisable flavour of /New/Provisional/Whatever IRA is not. Links to SF aren't quite as joined-at-the-hip as they were, which was how the political arm stopped being proscribed.
Post by: brewer bob on May 14, 2022, 05:55:14 am
Well, if the world will allow a precedent of nuclear power randomly declaring some territories theirs and annexing it, we are so screwed.
Can't argue with that.
The possibility is something that Russia is supposed to be prepared for (https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2019/Fall/4Grau19.pdf). Supposed to be. This doesn't look like the orderly "50 metres apart, affixed with snorkels", at first glance. Perhaps someone decided to wing it (after or during the bridging unit being targetted), perhaps the attack precipitated matters and the crews prefered a bit of 'soft water' protection over standing in the 'open' under bombardment.Spoiler: Behold! Russian submarine tanks (click to show/hide)
I suspect (totally without professional experience in these matters) that a failure to properly train and reherse might have been part of the issue. Still, if the crews have the emergency breathing gear (if not the chance to have a go in the escape-simulators) there might not have been so much risk of actual drowning, in the undoubted mayhem, leaving it up to opposition artillery/dronestrikes/whatever to cause any subsequent casualties.
A retired Australian general had some insights on Twitter about the failed bridging attempt:
Spoiler: the Twitter thread (click to show/hide)
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 14, 2022, 10:35:26 am
Those who condemn NATO aid to Ukraine as "American imperialism" while ignoring the fact that it's to keep Ukraine's independence in the face of Russian Imperialism are Putinist agents. Regardless of claimed political alignment, they are playing into the Russian government's plans: for the West to go into isolation. Thus they are Putinists. They are traitors to the democratic world.Well, if the world will allow a precedent of nuclear power randomly declaring some territories theirs and annexing it, we are so screwed.
Can't argue with that.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 14, 2022, 12:08:09 pm
What can I say? Njet
Post by: heydude6 on May 14, 2022, 03:08:05 pm
Essentially speaking, Chomsky has a strong hate-boner for America to the point that he irrationally hates everything America does, including the time when America intervened to stop the Bosnian genocide. Since it isn't appropriate to say "Stopping genocide is bad", Chomsky has had to do a lot of mental gymnastics to keep his dysfunctional worldview alive. It's lead him to twist facts and blatantly lie to push the narrative that the Bosnian genocide wasn't a genocide. The guy is as delusional as a Tankie, which is why he isn't seen as a respectable intellectual.
It would be totally in character for Chomsky to support Putin in this conflict.
Post by: brewer bob on May 14, 2022, 03:19:48 pm
Post by: tonnot98 on May 14, 2022, 06:30:52 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on May 14, 2022, 06:48:12 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 14, 2022, 09:47:47 pm
Chomsky is blind to the imperialism of Russia and other states than the US, but unfortunately he's not the only one in the so-called intellectual Left with that kind of views.
The man's never met a genocide he won't deny, but you're fundamentally right.
There's a huge portion of the left, particularly the Internet Left, and most particularly the American Internet Left, who's policies begin and end with "AMERICA BAD!". Often to the point of wrapping around to "PUTIN GOOD!" or "ASSAT GOOD!" or "KIM JONG-UN GOOD" purely because they oppose America and America is evil and the only country with agency. Many prominent leftist podcasts, Twitter "pundits", and authors fall into this category.
By some strange coincidence, most of them have gotten a lot less fundraising and lower engagement with their work in the last three or four months for some reason or other, just as has happened with the global far right.
Post by: Quarque on May 15, 2022, 01:01:18 am
Chomsky should know better, watching him makes me sad. I can't hate him. Trump deserves that to a much greater degree. Lord knows what kind of top-secret intel he has handed Putin over the last years.
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 15, 2022, 03:13:41 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 15, 2022, 03:24:44 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 16, 2022, 02:26:39 pm
This music video... It is pure art showing what this war looks like. Somehow they expressed my own emotions so well.
Post by: Quarque on May 16, 2022, 06:04:19 pm
The song expresses not only pain and tragedy, but also an indomitable vitality, a refreshing belief that freedom is worth fighting for. Too many people in the West have grown cynical about their own democratic rights. A kind of cynism that the Kremlin has been feeding, in collaboration with rightwing nutjobs and useful idiots. They want to make us to believe that democracy and the free press are no better than despotism and state propaganda.
It sounds corny as hell, but Ukraine really is a beacon of light in dark times.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 17, 2022, 08:17:22 pm
Regarding Russia's plans to kill those Ukranian soldiers that surrendered after holding out the longest...
STUPID
If you kill those who surrender to you, then nobody surrenders to you.
Then again, if Russia hasn't figured that out yet, they never will.
Additional Commentary:
Why is the War in Ukraine so brutal?
Answer: This war is essentially a sibling dispute. It's more like a civil war in its brutality than most "normal" wars.
Essentially, Younger Brother Ukraine tried to say to Older Brother Russia: "Brother, I don't need you anymore. I'm going my own way"
Thus, Older Brother Russia said: "No Younger Brother. Now I fuck you in the ass until you know that I own you, wholly and completely. Bitch"
And then Russia started to rape its younger brother.
Post by: hector13 on May 17, 2022, 08:36:59 pm
Russia is exterminating Ukrainians because it will inevitably make it easier to Russify with fewer Ukrainians.
It’s further ironically Nazi-esque thought: Russia is superior, and anything else can be exterminated like animals. It’s not genocide if they aren’t human.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 17, 2022, 08:41:33 pm
I think Ukraine and Russia are sufficiently different that it’s not a sibling rivalry.It makes more sense if you track it back to the fall of the Soviet Union.
Russia is exterminating Ukrainians because it will inevitably make it easier to Russify with fewer Ukrainians.
It’s further ironically Nazi-esque thought: Russia is superior, and anything else can be exterminated like animals. It’s not genocide if they aren’t human.
Ukraine had a semi-legit claim to taking over as the successor of the Soviet Union.
My point is that Younger Brother Ukraine grew up and evolved, whereas Older Brother Russia is still living in their abusive father's shadow. And doing the same shit.
Post by: King Zultan on May 18, 2022, 01:58:07 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 18, 2022, 02:43:14 am
Additional Commentary:
Why is the War in Ukraine so brutal?
Answer: This war is essentially a sibling dispute. It's more like a civil war in its brutality than most "normal" wars.
Essentially, Younger Brother Ukraine tried to say to Older Brother Russia: "Brother, I don't need you anymore. I'm going my own way"
Thus, Older Brother Russia said: "No Younger Brother. Now I fuck you in the ass until you know that I own you, wholly and completely. Bitch"
And then Russia started to rape its younger brother.
NO!
Here is a correct analogy - some time ago Ukraine made an unwise (and not entirely voluntary decision) to marry a distant relative. At first it wasn't that bad but as years passed it became worse and worse, with more and more abuse and punishments not only for any attempts to leave but for any independent thought, culminating in truly horrendous acts like Holodomor. To make matters worse, part of Ukraine actually persuaded itself that it is actual love and a proper union, (what people call a Stockholm Syndrome), and not a horrendous, centuries-long abuse.
Then, in a moment of maniac's weakness, an accidental divorce happened but with a condition - you are still my fuckbuddy, don't forget about this and don't dare to have relationships with anyone else.
Few decades later, after the maniac recovered from his weakness, he said "Come back to the cosy basement so I can love you again."
Post by: scriver on May 18, 2022, 04:00:32 am
I think Ukraine and Russia are sufficiently different that it’s not a sibling rivalry.
Russia is exterminating Ukrainians because it will inevitably make it easier to Russify with fewer Ukrainians.
It’s further ironically Nazi-esque thought: Russia is superior, and anything else can be exterminated like animals. It’s not genocide if they aren’t human.
It's definitely sibling rivalry, except one sibling is Cain
Post by: Starver on May 18, 2022, 06:33:53 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 19, 2022, 03:15:16 am
1) Topic number 1 is the ongoing surrendering of troops in Azovstal (Mariupol). They celebrate it(naturally) and discuss what should be done next. Discussion goes between three groups: a) all of them must be executed on the spot, b) all of them should be put on trial and either executed or imprisoned for life and sent to work in Siberia, or c) They should be slowly tortured to death. A small portions of people who say something like "You know Ukrainians have POWs, too and releasing our guys in exchange is a good option." are shot down as traitors and\or Ukrainians in disguise
2) They also celebrate successes on the Donbas front, believe Russian official sources regarding Ukrainian casualties, and discuss how many more Ukrainian troops they need to destroy to force Ukrainians to surrender expecting that it'll happen really soon (Perhaps they should look at the mythology of their own "Great Patriotic War" and learn that even millions are not enough)
3) Hilariously, the amount of butthurt from something as minor as Ukraine winning Eurovision is very noticeable. They are also really annoyed that Russian athletes aren't allowed to compete in many competitions.
4) Another active topic of discussion seems to be rebuilding Ukraine, mostly rebuilding of Mariupol. You see... After Russian top-ranked thieves lost their yachts and real estate in the Western countries they want to compensate. They push for diverting a significant amount of money from the state and regional budgets to rebuild Mariupol planning to steal a huge chunk of it
Needless to say, ordinary Russians are not happy... Patriotism is cool and everything... until you learn that you'll need to pay for it from your own pocket.
5) I see no real indications of any serious economic problems in Russia, yet. There are no active discussions about rising prices, lost jobs, etc.
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 19, 2022, 03:27:46 am
Post by: EuchreJack on May 19, 2022, 04:05:45 am
So I spend a few hours diving into the Russian patriotic segment of the internet...
Thanks for the report.
You're a brave soul.
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 19, 2022, 04:35:17 am
So I spend a few hours diving into the Russian patriotic segment of the internet... My subjective and anecdotal observations:You should give Serbian Russiaboo internet a try. It's amazing, they're even more pro-Russian than pro-Russian Russians
5) I see no real indications of any serious economic problems in Russia, yet. There are no active discussions about rising prices, lost jobs, etc.This is probably something they would discuss in private, not in public, because of the potential for repercussions "you are not being supportive enough, how dare you criticise the state of the state"
One of the Russians I know said that in Moscow things are bleak. Skilled workers sharing tips on how to leave the country without getting stopped at the airport, the pharmacist has run out of all medicines, life savings are worthless e.t.c.
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 19, 2022, 04:47:22 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 19, 2022, 02:40:34 pm
You should give Serbian Russiaboo internet a try. It's amazing, they're even more pro-Russian than pro-Russian Russians
I have enough of these guys in Twitter and Youtube... Seriously... Serbian society is still messed up.
Post by: brewer bob on May 19, 2022, 04:32:46 pm
Meanwhile, it looks like Italy offers Ukraine to capitulate (https://english.nv.ua/nation/italy-proposes-peace-plan-to-end-russia-s-war-on-ukraine-50243614.html)
Quote from: the article
- bilateral agreement between Ukraine and Russia on Crimea and Donbas: at the suggestion of the Italian authorities, the "disputed territories" will have full autonomy with the right to ensure their own security, but sovereignty over the regions will belong to Kyiv
This is a horrible, horrible idea. Putin shouldn't be given any concessions. What kind of asshole proposes this kind of stuff?
Post by: EuchreJack on May 19, 2022, 07:27:01 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on May 19, 2022, 07:29:33 pm
While 16 year olds committing arson under the flimsiest of reasons is common, I wonder if their being near draft age had something to do with it.
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 19, 2022, 07:56:52 pm
Quoting from the news topic:Meanwhile, it looks like Italy offers Ukraine to capitulate (https://english.nv.ua/nation/italy-proposes-peace-plan-to-end-russia-s-war-on-ukraine-50243614.html)Quote from: the article
- bilateral agreement between Ukraine and Russia on Crimea and Donbas: at the suggestion of the Italian authorities, the "disputed territories" will have full autonomy with the right to ensure their own security, but sovereignty over the regions will belong to Kyiv
This is a horrible, horrible idea. Putin shouldn't be given any concessions. What kind of asshole proposes this kind of stuff?
The terms seem very carefully crafted to sound quite reasonable, but Russia will never accept them. This lets Italy present themselves as a peacemaker and counter the (absurd) claims that the West is "forcing" Ukraine into this war.
Post by: martinuzz on May 19, 2022, 09:03:47 pm
Quoting from the news topic:Doesn't really sound like concessions to me. It not only denies Russia the possibility of annexing Donbas, it also requires them to give back Crimea to Ukraine.Meanwhile, it looks like Italy offers Ukraine to capitulate (https://english.nv.ua/nation/italy-proposes-peace-plan-to-end-russia-s-war-on-ukraine-50243614.html)Quote from: the article
- bilateral agreement between Ukraine and Russia on Crimea and Donbas: at the suggestion of the Italian authorities, the "disputed territories" will have full autonomy with the right to ensure their own security, but sovereignty over the regions will belong to Kyiv
This is a horrible, horrible idea. Putin shouldn't be given any concessions. What kind of asshole proposes this kind of stuff?
Post by: EuchreJack on May 19, 2022, 09:16:16 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on May 19, 2022, 09:28:18 pm
Hm, missed the part about Crimea. Anything that can dislodge Crimea from the Russian Yoke in any way warrants consideration, I would think from the pro-Ukrainian point of view.
Any plan that starts with something like "1) ceasefire and Russian troops stay while we discuss the rest in UN style (for years\decades)." is unacceptable and will only allow Russia to cement its brutal occupation and prepare for the next attack when it will decide that conditions favor it.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 19, 2022, 09:34:24 pm
The devil is in the details.
Pro: "a ceasefire in Ukraine and the demilitarization of the front line under UN supervision"
Harder to commit genocide with UN observers. Ideally, UN forces would take over the front lines entirely.
Con: "The plan stipulates that Russian troops are then withdrawn from Ukraine."
This is at the end, implying that removal of Russia Troops isn't a priority Day 1. Hence Strongpoint's concerns.
And I'll repeat: Review of the ACTUAL DOCUMENT submitted to the UN is required. I hardly trust any news media outlet to correctly distill any official document.
The only thing I could find relevant was this document (https://tind-customer-undl.s3.amazonaws.com/67fd00cd-3220-46d4-8f88-49e328f435ab?response-content-disposition=attachment%3B%20filename%2A%3DUTF-8%27%27A_HRC_S-34_L.1-EN.pdf&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAXL7W7Q3XFWDGQKBB%2F20220520%2Feu-west-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Date=20220520T024922Z&X-Amz-Signature=970d5bc10aba0cc1bbc0a2cba72daeedc57d46b6567b76b982496072fe74e3cd), which didn't come from Italy alone.
As I mentioned in the news thread, Italy is under pressure to end the war by any means necessary. (https://tfiglobalnews.com/2022/05/18/stop-funding-ukraine-or-prepare-for-a-civil-war-the-italian-opposition-declares/)
I'm irritated that Italy's opposition party, and frankly others in the World, even the US, are choosing to frame the issue as "Funding Ukraine means starvation in Africa".
Er, no. Russia INVADING Ukraine means starvation in Africa. If Russia LEAVES, the starvation ends. And letting the Russians HAVE Ukraine doesn't guarantee food exports will increase. In fact, it's likely to go the other way.
Also, here is a dirty little secret about the United States: We have enough food to fully feed Africa. We refuse to do it because it is not profitable for US.
Post by: heydude6 on May 19, 2022, 10:13:51 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on May 19, 2022, 10:19:26 pm
I don't think Ukraine or its people will ever forgive the West if they allow Russia's plans for genocide to happen.I would hope the West wouldn't forgive itself if they allow Russia's plans for genocide to happen.
There is a lot of support for continuing aid to Ukraine. It's mainly just wing jobs, has-bens, and naive opportunists that think otherwise.
So the fringes that disagree on anything.
Post by: nenjin on May 19, 2022, 10:48:01 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on May 19, 2022, 10:57:08 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on May 19, 2022, 11:17:38 pm
They need time to build forward bases on already occupied territories and organize better logistics, they need to find and eliminate growing guerilla movements, they need to train reservists, they need to give their troops some time to recover, they need to repair a lot of military hardware (combat damage, general wear and tear, restoration of vehicles from long-term storage), they need time to transfer more stuff from Siberia, etc.
Ukraine is very ahead in mobilization and training of reservists (Russia has only a limited hidden mobilization), we already have forward bases, we have a better ability to rotate troops (except in semi-encircled areas in Donbass, where it is problematic), we don't have a dire need to fix military hardware ASAP because we are getting it from many places in already working condition.
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 19, 2022, 11:33:41 pm
http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=179709.msg8375333#msg8375333 (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=179709.msg8375333#msg8375333)Based.
While 16 year olds committing arson under the flimsiest of reasons is common, I wonder if their being near draft age had something to do with it.
And yeah, the West should not give any concessions to Russia, or Russia will tear Ukraine apart piece by piece. Help Ukraine fight for as long as possible until Russia tires out.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 20, 2022, 02:12:53 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 20, 2022, 02:35:11 am
So, Russian High Command should have played Shadow Empire (https://store.steampowered.com/app/1154840/Shadow_Empire/) extensively before launching their invasion. Then they would have know better.Added to wish list.
Post by: Il Palazzo on May 20, 2022, 02:44:04 am
Post by: Starver on May 20, 2022, 03:41:57 am
Er, no. Russia INVADING Ukraine means starvation in Africa. If Russia LEAVES, the starvation ends. And letting the Russians HAVE Ukraine doesn't guarantee food exports will increase. In fact, it's likely to go the other way....exactly my thoughts, when I read the arguments.
There will be (at least) a year's blip as infrastructure and agriculture has to recover, but the chances that "Ok, Ukraine is Russian now" leads to any better outcome for Africa (slower recovery, worse restoration, grain will doubtless get funelled through Russia's hands to prioritise their conceptual needs above Africa, what does go out there will be tied to 'goodwill' agreements of the Kremlin's choosing of both open and back-door nature, etc...) is fantasy.
The chain of "help Ukraine => harm Africans => who will pester us" smells of hedging the racism card. "I'm not racist, I just don't want brown people coming here." I don't know much about the political tendencies of these Italian opposition guys (I bet it's more complicated than my mind is painting them) but if I'm summarising the summary of their arguments at least half-way fairly then I'd be looking at where strings are being pulled, or even let run free a little.
Charitably "opposition for opposition's sake" might be the only thing (taking a contrarian stance), but it's a bad counterargument to push when there's always plenty of other levers to operate to put internal pressure upon pretty much any government, and Italy is one of those that always seems to be on the edge, or jumping from one edge to another. They could afford a (pretended) solidarity on the Ukraine issue.
The worse position is that there's a populist pro-Russia groundswell (or even more vehement core base) such that they can't claim the same moral position on this issue, or lose their lifeblood perhaps to more marginally-inclined coalitions of political movements. I've really not heard much about that. I've no doubt there's such pockets silently fuming in all 'western alliance of support" nations, with their own 'reasoning' behind their stance. And no doubt there's been a concerted effort by Russia's usual assets to find and then stir such pots as exist that are already simmering with the right sort of recipe for their purpose. Enough for a civil war? (Within Italy, or within/across the EU in general, ignoring Erdogan for the moment.) Worth a nudge, though, I'm sure is their attitude...
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 20, 2022, 04:20:58 am
I also should probably actually read the damn document before commenting.The Italian party in question is borderline neo-fascist, and most of Europe's neofascists are directly backed by Russia. Having them acting as a mouthpiece for Russia is hardly surprising. They're also very nationalist and openly anti-immigrant, and are one of the parties that have been spouting horrific anti-refugee starements for years.
The devil is in the details.
Pro: "a ceasefire in Ukraine and the demilitarization of the front line under UN supervision"
Harder to commit genocide with UN observers. Ideally, UN forces would take over the front lines entirely.
Con: "The plan stipulates that Russian troops are then withdrawn from Ukraine."
This is at the end, implying that removal of Russia Troops isn't a priority Day 1. Hence Strongpoint's concerns.
And I'll repeat: Review of the ACTUAL DOCUMENT submitted to the UN is required. I hardly trust any news media outlet to correctly distill any official document.
The only thing I could find relevant was this document (https://tind-customer-undl.s3.amazonaws.com/67fd00cd-3220-46d4-8f88-49e328f435ab?response-content-disposition=attachment%3B%20filename%2A%3DUTF-8%27%27A_HRC_S-34_L.1-EN.pdf&response-content-type=application%2Fpdf&X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Expires=86400&X-Amz-Credential=AKIAXL7W7Q3XFWDGQKBB%2F20220520%2Feu-west-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Date=20220520T024922Z&X-Amz-Signature=970d5bc10aba0cc1bbc0a2cba72daeedc57d46b6567b76b982496072fe74e3cd), which didn't come from Italy alone.
As I mentioned in the news thread, Italy is under pressure to end the war by any means necessary. (https://tfiglobalnews.com/2022/05/18/stop-funding-ukraine-or-prepare-for-a-civil-war-the-italian-opposition-declares/)
I'm irritated that Italy's opposition party, and frankly others in the World, even the US, are choosing to frame the issue as "Funding Ukraine means starvation in Africa".
Er, no. Russia INVADING Ukraine means starvation in Africa. If Russia LEAVES, the starvation ends. And letting the Russians HAVE Ukraine doesn't guarantee food exports will increase. In fact, it's likely to go the other way.
Also, here is a dirty little secret about the United States: We have enough food to fully feed Africa. We refuse to do it because it is not profitable for US.
As for the other, even if the US government bought all the surplus food in the country to send to Africa, it wouldn't easily solve the issue. You can't just show up on a dock with a truckooad of food and call it done - there's immense logistical issues tnat arise when you're shipping from an entirely different source. The local infrastructure is set up to distribute food from Ukraine, not the US (which would be less of a problem if you coukd use the same ports, but there's a very real risk that Russia will shoot at any ship trying to make that transit.
Post by: Il Palazzo on May 20, 2022, 06:28:44 am
but there's a very real risk that Russia will shoot at any ship trying to make that transit.What? Shoot at whom? From where?
Post by: EuchreJack on May 20, 2022, 09:28:05 am
I don't get the comparison. They would then expect their troops to be eaten by 27 metre tall squid analogues?
While I know you're being funny,
The point I was making is that if the Russian High Command had played a decent military war sim, they would have understood the logistical issues of their invasion, and maybe avoided/lessened some of the problems that have bogged down their campaign. I mean, I'm sure they have little choice in the matter of actually going through with the invasion and avenues of attack, but they could have done better from Day 1-30.
EDIT: To "finish the joke", I'm essentially saying a bunch of civilian war gamers could have done better than the Russian Military Leaders.
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 20, 2022, 09:36:32 am
EDIT: To "finish the joke", I'm essentially saying a bunch of civilian war gamers could have done better than the Russian Military Leaders.One of the main problems seems to have been that there was no executive Russian military leadership; the invasion was planned by security officials whose main experience is murdering journalists, not planning wars. No one general was put in overall command, there was no unified air command let alone a unified ground-sea-air command, so the whole thing was just grasping at straws and necessitated generals coming to the front line just to figure out what their own forces were doing (and promptly dying as a result)
Post by: Strongpoint on May 20, 2022, 09:41:19 am
This is absolutely horrifying. Lyudmyla Denisova (Ombudsman for Human Rights in Ukraine) writes on Facebook about Russian atrocities. (https://www.facebook.com/denisovaombudsman/posts/543770413770902)Spoiler: Content warning: sexual assault, child abuse (click to show/hide)
I am confident that many of them WILL be brought to justice. It will be one of the focuses of the Ukrainian nation. Not via useless international courts of course, those will stay as useless (look at how "effective" they are with capturing Serbs) as they are now. In the Israeli way. With random explosions and other accidents happening all over the Russia
We already doing work on finding their faces, names, home addresses, and passport data (the Internet era is wonderful). In some cases, their relatives from the middle of Russian nowhere are already enjoying some serious fame on social networks and many phone calls full of... colorful promises
I can already see future "liberal" media condemning Ukrainian methods of justice.
Post by: Madman198237 on May 20, 2022, 09:55:12 am
The local infrastructure is set up to distribute food from Ukraine, not the US (which would be less of a problem if you coukd use the same ports, but there's a very real risk that Russia will shoot at any ship trying to make that transit.
If a ship from the US shows up with grain in a port in Africa set up to distribute Ukrainian grain, it wouldn't be any different than a ship from Ukraine showing up.
And like hell is Russia going to shoot at any ship flying a NATO-aligned flag no matter where it chooses to go. Africa, the Black Sea, right off the coast of the Crimea. There is pretty much no risk, particularly a cargo ship that would be travelling in international waters.
Post by: brewer bob on May 20, 2022, 10:01:38 am
I can already see future "liberal" media condemning Ukrainian methods of justice.
I honestly won't start blaming Ukrainians if they take extreme and harsh measures to deliver justice against the perpetrators.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 20, 2022, 10:22:04 am
I can already see future "liberal" media condemning Ukrainian methods of justice.
I honestly won't start blaming Ukrainians if they take extreme and harsh measures to deliver justice against the perpetrators.
I am actually worried that it will go too far and will be done not only by specially trained operatives and will hit random people...
But all "after the war" worries are so far away... I can't stop thinking about Azovstal's prisoners and some worrying news from the Popasna-Severedonetsk front. This will be a looong war, victory is not near.
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 20, 2022, 10:40:25 am
Same.I can already see future "liberal" media condemning Ukrainian methods of justice.
I honestly won't start blaming Ukrainians if they take extreme and harsh measures to deliver justice against the perpetrators.
Post by: nenjin on May 20, 2022, 11:31:26 am
Like, they're all minors. Shouldn't really matter what gender they are, sexual assault is sexual assault.
Or is it more subtle than that. Given the Russian government's attitude toward homosexuality, are boys specifically singled out during reporting to highlight that contradiction or....?
The less charitable read on it is "Well you expected girls to be sexually assaulted during war time, but boys? Now that's something."
I've seen it multiple times in reporting and it makes me scratch my head every time I see it.
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 20, 2022, 12:52:09 pm
I've always found it strange that reports of sexual violence during the war single out boys.It's to ensure that typically overlooked demographics don't suffer erasure, in the past it had been fairly standard to act on the assumption that male war rape victims didn't exist (https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2013/jun/25/dealing-with-male-rape)
Like, they're all minors. Shouldn't really matter what gender they are, sexual assault is sexual assault.
This problem also applies to many other aspects of many other social ills. I remember one fairly obscure one for example being gay rights activism in Jamaica ignoring the problems faced by poor gay and trans Jamaicans to focus on the problems faced by highly educated Jamaicans. In all such cases it should be ideally a one-size-fits-all approach, but a one-size-fits-all-approach doesn't always address the same problem for all, because not all experience the same problem the same way
It is also useful for determining the extent and scale of its existence, as there is not a wealth of history on the unfortunate subject due to lack of records
Post by: King Zultan on May 21, 2022, 02:59:38 am
Also all the soldiers that rape people should be shot and killed.
Post by: Ziusudra on May 21, 2022, 06:23:03 pm
I just realized that Putin sounds like a fart themed villain that a little kid would make up.The political officer who "slips on tea" and breaks his neck near the beginning of The Hunt for Red October is named Ivan Putin.
Post by: Grim Portent on May 21, 2022, 07:20:17 pm
Also all the soldiers that rape people should be shot and killed.
I think the traditional method of killing war criminals is to hang them.
For various reasons I'd say it's preferable to put any of the soldiers caught on trial and then execute or incarcerate them through civilian procedures, which would generally mean hanging, lethal injection or electric chair, though I think Ukraine doesn't have the death penalty anyway*, than to have them hunted down and assassinated by revenge squads.
Though the odds of any such war criminals surviving a period of incarceration in a Ukrainian jail would be slim to none, so just shooting dead them might actually be the kinder punishment.
Sadly I expect that a lot of war criminals are going to go unpunished. Rapists, murderers and looters are going to be plentiful enough that tracking them all down isn't going to be practical, even if post-war Russia decides to be fully cooperative. This isn't really a WW2 situation with well documented death camps and experiment logs and muster rolls and so on to use to identify the people involved, it's more of an out of control mob shitshow. Apart from the odd morons who got their faces caught on cameras and so forth I imagine definitively proving that a given soldier, or even a given squad or detachment was involved in an atrocity is going to be difficult, especially if Russia decides to destroy their paper trail.
*Given the circumstances, temporarily reinstating the death penalty wouldn't seem unreasonable to me despite being highly opposed to it on general principle.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 21, 2022, 09:03:02 pm
Post by: hector13 on May 21, 2022, 10:43:21 pm
I expect that’s the exception rather than the rule though.
Post by: King Zultan on May 22, 2022, 02:18:13 am
especially if Russia decides to destroy their paper trail.Given how much of a shit fest this whole thing has been I doubt there is much documentation for what the hell these people are doing.
Post by: brewer bob on May 22, 2022, 04:52:38 am
The guy that was recently tried for war crimes in Ukraine didn’t get any support from Russia.
I expect that’s the exception rather than the rule though.
Or that the fate of rank-and-file soldiers isn't of much concern. I'd assume some high brass ones might get support.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 22, 2022, 05:28:39 am
Well I hope those soldiers die in the most painful manner. If I was an Ukrainian commander and they got captured by my unit, I'd... I won't say it here for forum rules' sake.
If I was a commander in this hypothetical situation I would be either like "Nice additions to the POW exchange fund, it can be used for freeing some of our guys." or "eeew..." shot it and resume the mission.
To win a war one needs cold pragmatism. Not to mention that torturing an evil monster won't undo the evil it done.
Post by: King Zultan on May 23, 2022, 02:22:42 am
shot it and resume the mission.Sometimes dead is better.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 23, 2022, 07:05:53 am
He always was of the "politics don't concern me." types. Never participated in any elections. He never was a pro-Russian, just had that vague "Ukrainians and Russians are brothers and all of this is political games and I don't want to hear about your irrational hatred towards Russian people."
I literally begged him to leave this increasingly lawless territory of the "DPR" for years. Tried to explain that there he'll have no future, no decent career, no anything. That situation will only get worse. The answer was always the same - "it is my home and I can't leave my parents and it will be better once politicians will stop playing their games..."
He was force-drafted and ended his life as cannon fodder, died for no reason at all. "I am not interested in politics" can have an awful price tag attached.
Post by: MaxTheFox on May 23, 2022, 07:20:28 am
Post by: brewer bob on May 23, 2022, 08:34:45 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 23, 2022, 08:42:43 am
I'm sorry for your loss. :(
No, he wasn't a close friend or something like that. Just someone I shared some interests with. I care more about Ukrainian soldiers who I knew only from few posts in social networks.
It is just... sad... The whole Donbass region is getting depopulated like that. There will be very few men left there. In part, it is the result of their own decisions, of their actions... or inaction.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 24, 2022, 06:42:28 am
As for my friend, I think I figured him out.
He's desperate to feel intellectually superior to everyone else. Since most people know that the Russians are in the wrong, his only way to "Know better than the dumb masses" is to believe the Russians. It quite pitiful. I kinda wish I could just cut the guy out of my life, but that is not good business.
Post by: heydude6 on May 24, 2022, 07:38:47 am
You have my condolences. We can only hope he learns humility one day.
Post by: scriver on May 24, 2022, 11:18:03 am
I consider contrarianism as a form of mental illness for a reason.
I disagree.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 24, 2022, 12:32:41 pm
Severedonetsk (~100K pre-war population) is about to become surrounded and face the same fate as Mariupol. We can only hope that the help will arrive in time, before forces there will be forced to surrender
It is an open secret that Ukraine will start a major counteroffensive in 4-8 weeks, preparations are too obvious. I don't even want to think about what kind of casualties will come then.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 25, 2022, 09:31:34 am
So, I decided it's probably useless.When someone says "insufficient evidence" now, they're almost certainly not open to rational arguments. By far the best way to convince someone like that is if he would spend some time in Ukraine, get to know some people there and befriend them. Our opinion is all too often based on emotion and only look for some rational arguments as an afterthought.
Thanks for the help.
I at least have more information.
Quoting the news thread
My friends host a family of refugees from Mariupol. The family that lost everything because of Russians, their apartment ceased to exist. Their city ceased to exist.
Who do they blame? Ukrainian nationalist government failed to reach a diplomatic solution with Russian brothers who were forced to this action by the USA and NATO. Also, if that Pesky Azov surrendered immediately, Mariupol would be intact.
Irrational people are like this. If facts contradict their beliefs... Facts will be ignored and twisted
Post by: heydude6 on May 25, 2022, 10:11:29 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 25, 2022, 10:43:24 am
Dear God. That level of of self-delusion makes me want to vomit. Your friend is a much more compassionate person than I am. I find hosting my own family to be insufferable, can’t imagine what he must be going through.
You don't kick traumatized people with children out. While I may be facepalming at people like this, trying to fix rationality of people with such a fresh and powerful PTSD is not the best way to go.
Post by: Starver on May 27, 2022, 02:34:24 am
Seems like you'd have to be really bad at your job for you to be able to bomb one of your own planes.On the contrary. It was the Ghost Of Kiev being that good!
Post by: Strongpoint on May 28, 2022, 07:25:09 am
Special Military Operation is going according to the plan.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 28, 2022, 07:43:35 am
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a bill into law that increases the age limit for signing a contract for military service to 50 years.Way to discriminate against the WW2 vets!
Special Military Operation is going according to the plan.
Post by: scriver on May 28, 2022, 08:01:53 am
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a bill into law that increases the age limit for signing a contract for military service to 50 years.
Special Military Operation is going according to the plan.
You wouldn't happen to know what the previous age limit was?
Post by: Strongpoint on May 28, 2022, 08:05:14 am
Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a bill into law that increases the age limit for signing a contract for military service to 50 years.
Special Military Operation is going according to the plan.
You wouldn't happen to know what the previous age limit was?
40
Post by: scriver on May 28, 2022, 08:59:01 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 28, 2022, 09:32:21 am
So basically they've used up two generation's worth of their "military contract service" pool already.
Used up is a loud word, it is more of a hidden unofficial mobilization. But they did lose quite a few. Ukrainian claim is that Russia has lost 30K KIA
It may be exaggerated but here (https://t.me/s/pechalbeda200) is a (Ukrainian) telegram channel with confirmed Russian KIAs mentioned in Russian media and\or social networks. That list has a prooflink for each one. And that list has 2919 names in it.
Post by: EuchreJack on May 28, 2022, 10:07:09 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on May 28, 2022, 11:11:25 am
In theory, this could improve the performance of their forces. In reality, those vets are probably rusty as hell, and thenfact that Russia's scraped through the bottom of the barrel amd is nowmdeploying T-62 tanks is likely to offset any gains
As for why that model is significant, it not only carries a worse gun, optics, and electronics, but the armor is plainmsteel instead of the composites used in later tanks. Where you need a heavy ATGM to take out a -72, almost any amtivehicle weapon in the NATO or Ukranian inventory will take care of a -62. The cheap and ubiquitous AT4 - a very portable one-shot rocket that is onky supposed to be used against light vehicles - will punch right through thenthickest part.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 28, 2022, 11:32:35 am
The biggest thing the change does is bring the veterans of their earlier wars into eligiblity.
Competent veterans of the earlier wars are either already in the army or among Wagner mercenaries. It is more like a way to save money by utilizing Russian men before their retirement.
Post by: King Zultan on May 30, 2022, 02:20:32 am
Post by: hector13 on May 30, 2022, 03:00:16 am
Post by: Strongpoint on May 30, 2022, 03:42:39 am
They are actively digging up in Southern Ukraine and bring tons of obsolete equipment like T-62 tanks and D-20 howitzers to achieve this goal
Post by: martinuzz on May 30, 2022, 06:20:42 pm
Sad. We will probably have to restart burning coal in our decomissioned coal power plants to compensate. RIP Paris climate deal.
EDIT: In other news, tonight, 120 or more refugees are forced to sleep in chairs (again), because we have no more beds available for them. All available non-contested* capacity is used up for Ukrainian refugees, no more beds for Africans and Afghans.
*) we actually have capacity, but a lot of municipalities refuse to make it available out of fear for civil unrest and riots from anti-refugee idiots.
Post by: Strongpoint on May 30, 2022, 10:30:01 pm
Russia will shut off the gas export to the Netherlands coming tuesday because we won't pay in Rubles.
Sad. We will probably have to restart burning coal in our decomissioned coal power plants to compensate. RIP Paris climate deal.
EDIT: In other news, tonight, 120 or more refugees are forced to sleep in chairs (again), because we have no more beds available for them. All available non-contested* capacity is used up for Ukrainian refugees, no more beds for Africans and Afghans.
*) we actually have capacity, but a lot of municipalities refuse to make it available out of fear for civil unrest and riots from anti-refugee idiots.
Considering incoming global food crisis... there will be more refugee
__________________
I "love" Russian propaganda. Severedonetsk, a ~100K city, got evacuated with about ~20K refusing to leave. Now some of those residents (mostly 60+ years old) great Russians as liberators and all of Russian segment of the internet is full with videos of happy people and claims like "see, people waited for so long!" omiting the fact that pro-Ukrainian majority fled not wanting to face of Buchs residents' fate.
Post by: Loud Whispers on May 31, 2022, 03:17:21 am
Russia will shut off the gas export to the Netherlands coming tuesday because we won't pay in Rubles.ur good fam (https://www.politico.eu/article/netherlands-and-denmark-gas-buyers-warn-of-russia-shutoff-kremlin-gazprom/) no disruption expected (https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/5/30/dutch-gas-trader-gasterra-deliveries-from-gazprom-to-end-may-31).
Sad. We will probably have to restart burning coal in our decomissioned coal power plants to compensate. RIP Paris climate deal.
Only 15% of Dutch enery needs were supplied by Russia and your most exposed gas company had already begun stockpiling gas & switching to European gas before the cutoff
Post by: Strongpoint on May 31, 2022, 08:35:14 am
Photo in this article is... epic. It deserves to stay in history.
Post by: Quarque on May 31, 2022, 10:29:49 am
Post by: Starver on May 31, 2022, 11:11:35 am
Post by: King Zultan on June 01, 2022, 01:23:48 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 01, 2022, 09:39:52 am
So the Russians invaded in order to steal Disney bedsheets. Now it all makes sense.Denazify the princess bedtime
Special military snooze
Post by: Strongpoint on June 04, 2022, 10:51:14 am
I do recommend the following two videos if you want to familiarize yourself with the event of the Russian-Ukrainian war from February to May
https://youtu.be/yBZPE9o2gHU
https://youtu.be/K2N_fHKrWIg
Post by: Strongpoint on June 05, 2022, 02:49:47 am
____________________
*double facepalm*
Yeah, let us show the world that there is nothing wrong in invading a neighboring country with genocidal intentions. Why humiliate a nation for such a minor transgression?
I also LOVE this "when the fighting stops" instead of "When Russia will be defeated"
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 05, 2022, 04:28:27 am
Post by: brewer bob on June 05, 2022, 05:34:32 am
Post by: Robsoie on June 05, 2022, 11:43:16 am
Post by: martinuzz on June 05, 2022, 01:39:27 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 05, 2022, 01:50:01 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 05, 2022, 01:59:22 pm
He's talking about an off ramp for Putin. It's not a new or particularly contentious idea, is it?
It isn't new but it is kinda contentious. Russia must face consequences for an unprovoked invasion, Its leader must face consequences for ordering such an invasion. "Off-ramp" means that it is fine.
The proper thing to do would be - no diplomacy with Russia until Putin is removed from power, arrested, and delivered to Hague.
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 05, 2022, 02:10:30 pm
Post by: brewer bob on June 05, 2022, 02:12:09 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 05, 2022, 02:22:32 pm
And even if a Ukrainian counter-offensive fails (or never starts), if Russia will capture more of Ukrainian territory, even if Ukrainian army will collapse and stuff will degrade into a guerilla war... There still will be no place for "diplomatic solutions" and "off-ramps". Not only it means a genocide on whatever occupied territory "diplomats" offer to give up, it also means that humanity will receive a message "it is completely OK to wage a brutal war of conquest in 21th century if your country has nukes" and stuff will hit the fan hard.
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 05, 2022, 02:39:18 pm
Post by: Quarque on June 05, 2022, 02:46:39 pm
Removing Putin from power can't be done without starting a nuclear war. What if a revolution doesn't happen, but Ukraine regains all of the Donbass and Crimea? Would you still be against diplomacy with Putin?He's talking about an off ramp for Putin. It's not a new or particularly contentious idea, is it?
It isn't new but it is kinda contentious. Russia must face consequences for an unprovoked invasion, Its leader must face consequences for ordering such an invasion. "Off-ramp" means that it is fine.
The proper thing to do would be - no diplomacy with Russia until Putin is removed from power, arrested, and delivered to Hague.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 05, 2022, 03:11:09 pm
Removing Putin from power can't be done without starting a nuclear war. What if a revolution doesn't happen, but Ukraine regains all of the Donbass and Crimea? Would you still be against diplomacy with Putin?He's talking about an off ramp for Putin. It's not a new or particularly contentious idea, is it?
It isn't new but it is kinda contentious. Russia must face consequences for an unprovoked invasion, Its leader must face consequences for ordering such an invasion. "Off-ramp" means that it is fine.
The proper thing to do would be - no diplomacy with Russia until Putin is removed from power, arrested, and delivered to Hague.
I disagree that Putin can't be removed from power because I believe that part of Russian elites A) Don't want to die in a nuclear war B) Want Russia to continue to exist.
I don't think that Putin will accept any diplomacy in an event of such a catastrophic defeat as Ukraine recapturing Crimea, he'll either go total war or straight to nukes (and let's hope his orders won't be obeyed).
Putin is Hitler of the 21st century and this war won't end unless 1) He'll be confident he won this battle 2) He'll be removed from power 3)He'll commit suicide when enemy forces will approach his bunker in Ural mountains.
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 05, 2022, 03:24:28 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 05, 2022, 03:46:10 pm
Liberation of the west bank of Dnipro, and a number of towns and villages in the Donbas and Kharkiv regions will be a good result. Should things go exceptionally well, a liberation\encirclement of Luhansk and\or Horlivka may happen, too
Liberating southern ports or assaulting Donetsk-Makiivka agglomeration are beyond the scope of anything Ukraine can field anytime soon. And moving into the fortress of Crimea... Assuming that it is possible in this year is delusional.
I am also less and less confident that this major summer offensive will indeed happen.
Post by: brewer bob on June 05, 2022, 03:51:19 pm
this war won't end unless 1) He'll be confident he won this battle 2) He'll be removed from power 3)He'll commit suicide when enemy forces will approach his bunker in Ural mountains.
I agree with this.
It's increasingly frustrating to watch how little Europe does to help, when certainly we should be doing more, even at the risk of causing energy shortages, economic depression or what not. Ukrainians are dying by the day, and it seems people are more concerned about how things will affect profits and getting things "back to how they were". You can't put a price on a human life (or, you can, but then you'll just be a dick) and no matter what, there won't be a return to the same kind of times as before the Russian invasion.
Post by: Cathar on June 05, 2022, 04:04:55 pm
Putin has got an "off-ramp" far too many times during his reign. He must face the consequences, though I'm highly doubtful it will ever happen (and it certainly won't happen if we get more of what Macron is saying should be done).
Macron is probably going to get a lot of flack for stating the obvious.
Yeah, sorry, we can't erase Russia from the map, we are going to have to deal with it, so maybe we can start building for peace now.
Also, what consequences ? We already seized their assets in Europe and US. Their army has been trashed, their credit score is lower than those of a median income household, and half of their male population is missing a bodypart, that's consequences aplenty already. In the meantime, NATO was revived from the dead, gained two prospective members, and Ukraine is probably joining Europe too.
Putting Putin (haha) on trial would require to declare war on Russia, litterally nobody wants this, it's something we only do to small countries who can't defend themselves. And for no tangible benefit that we cannot achieve through diplomatic means.
Doing serious legwork is not as glamorous as going in cowboy style and bringing justice and democracy to Eurasia, certainly less macho, but franckly I'd take that option as soon as it's available.
Edit : Also, the war in Ukraine, as I see it, is the continuation of the Orange Revolution which is a transition from puppet state to actual democracy. This is why Ukraine must be protected at all costs. Ukraine wins, it's a successful long-term democratic transition secured, which is what we want. We have nothing to gain by attacking Russia.
Post by: brewer bob on June 05, 2022, 04:16:57 pm
Putting Putin (haha) on trial would require to declare war on Russia, litterally nobody wants this
That's one reason why I don't believe that he'll be held accountable in the end, no matter how much I wish to see Putin on trial.
Post by: Stench Guzman on June 05, 2022, 06:11:46 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 05, 2022, 08:01:54 pm
How long until Poland invades western Ukraine to reclaim territory lost 100 years ago?It will never happen. The whole 'reclaiming Lviv' narrative is so absurd that it has to be originating from Russian troll farms. It fits nicely in the 'Ukraine shouldn't exist as all its territory was given to it from the land of its neighbours' angle.
In Poland there is zero sentiment towards any sort of territorial claims among the general populace or the ruling elites. The only people ever thinking about this are a handful of alopecia-afflicted extremists.
Also, WWII was more like 80 years ago.
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 05, 2022, 11:16:33 pm
Putin should not be negotiated with. Tire Russia out as much as possible.
Post by: Loud Whispers on June 06, 2022, 12:30:21 am
It will never happen. The whole 'reclaiming Lviv' narrative is so absurd that it has to be originating from Russian troll farms.And eu4 enthusiasts
Post by: Strongpoint on June 06, 2022, 12:49:28 am
How long until Poland invades western Ukraine to reclaim territory lost 100 years ago?The Russian segment of the internet is confident that this will happen very soon. And it is one of the most hilarious stuff to read there. They seem to fail to understand that for a modern democratic nation land grab of this kind is unthinkable.
Also, we live in a weird timeline. If anyone told younger me that Polish politicians will be saying "Glory to Ukraine," I would consider them absolutely crazy.
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 07, 2022, 06:10:39 am
Why not binary, though? Think about it. You start with Twoman, Fourman, and so on. With the power of ten you get to Kiloman. And then... Megaman. Off to fighting dr. Wily's robots.Army ranks are a fucking crime against reason, I swear
Their rank structure generally follows the same pattern as everybody else -
Yes and their all crimes against reason too! Let's just go back to having army ranks based on how many men you command. This is a Tenman Rambo, he's under Hundredman Killinger.
You could even give each Tenman under each Hundrednan their own decade so one would be Tenman, the next Twentman, next Thirtman, and so on.
There, I've fixed your army ranks. Man, I ought to get paid for this
The supreme commander of all armed forces should of course be called Superman.
Post by: scriver on June 07, 2022, 06:18:29 am
To advance in rank, you have to beat the person of your next higher number in personal combat.
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 07, 2022, 06:38:04 am
Post by: scriver on June 07, 2022, 09:26:28 am
Post by: EuchreJack on June 07, 2022, 09:33:25 am
That would result in the top ranks being occupied by Chad 'Steroid' McDumbass and his friends from the gym. Maybe make the competition something more geezer-friendly. Like bingo.
Ah, now you're reminding me fondly of Kenshi & the 256 squad limit mod. I had thought of trying to create an actual company in that game, complete with hierarchy and ranks. I actually really like games where you can organize people into military units.
It's the perfect system.Considering how the War in Ukraine is going for the Russians, personal combat skill should be a greater emphasis for their Generals.
To advance in rank, you have to beat the person of your next higher number in personal combat.
As opposed to the current promotion system, which they adopted from Pre-Victorian England, AKA bribery.
Post by: Quarque on June 07, 2022, 09:46:31 am
Considering how the War in Ukraine is going for the Russians, personal combat skill should be a greater emphasis for their Generals.Noo, they should not change anything about that. ;) I also heard their lower officers have no agency to make any decisions on their own. Great idea. Let every general check in person if soldiers on the front tied their shoelaces correctly. Actually, let Putin himself do that, to be absolutely sure. If you want a job done well, gotta do it yourself.
As opposed to the current promotion system, which they adopted from Pre-Victorian England, AKA bribery.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 07, 2022, 09:51:17 am
Considering how the War in Ukraine is going for the Russians, personal combat skill should be a greater emphasis for their Generals.Noo, they should not change anything about that. ;) I also heard their lower officers have no agency to make any decisions on their own. Great idea. Let every general check in person if soldiers on the front tied their shoelaces correctly. Actually, let Putin himself do that, to be absolutely sure. If you want a job done well, gotta do it yourself.
As opposed to the current promotion system, which they adopted from Pre-Victorian England, AKA bribery.
Of course, it is SO obvious now!
The only reason the war is taking so long is because The Great Putin is not leading his troops in person!
Paging Vladimir Putin to the front lines. Your troops are waiting for you...
Post by: King Zultan on June 08, 2022, 03:00:27 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 08, 2022, 11:09:23 am
Post by: EuchreJack on June 08, 2022, 03:31:41 pm
Meanwhile in modern Russia: a screaming match on state TV as to whether captured British citizens Shaun Pinner and Aiden Aslin should be shot, hanged, quartered or exchanged for ransom (the release of Russia's frozen assets), as they hope to cause a rift in British society. (https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1534554247278247936)
Hm, it all depends on how they were captured.
It would help to mention they were soldiers fighting the Russians. The Russians claim they're mercenaries, the British claim they were part of the Ukrainian Army. (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61722243)
Prediction: They'll be killed.
Russia needs to dissuade Europe & America from sending volunteers more than protecting their cannon fodder mercenaries.
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 08, 2022, 04:03:35 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 09, 2022, 01:08:33 am
Meanwhile in modern Russia: a screaming match on state TV as to whether captured British citizens Shaun Pinner and Aiden Aslin should be shot, hanged, quartered or exchanged for ransom (the release of Russia's frozen assets), as they hope to cause a rift in British society. (https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1534554247278247936)
Hm, it all depends on how they were captured.
It would help to mention they were soldiers fighting the Russians. The Russians claim they're mercenaries, the British claim they were part of the Ukrainian Army. (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-61722243)
Prediction: They'll be killed.
Russia needs to dissuade Europe & America from sending volunteers more than protecting their cannon fodder mercenaries.
I don't know anything about Aiden Aslin.
As for Shaun Pinner, he is a resident of Ukraine. He is married to a Ukrainian woman, he officially served in the Ukrainian army for years, he was a member of a Ukrainian marine infantry unit that surrendered to Russian forces in Mariupol.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 09, 2022, 02:34:41 am
If we want to be optimistic, those connections may mirror the connections of soldiers in the Donetsk People's Republic's Army.
That fact might be enough to avoid his execution.
More optimistically, both soldiers being British citizens means the Russians Overseers are likely to keep the soldiers alive.
Their political value ends if they're killed.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 09, 2022, 09:07:32 am
I think it is done to increase their "price" in POW exchange.
Or Russians want to put their "DNR" in the same list as ISIS,
Post by: EuchreJack on June 09, 2022, 09:30:31 am
Every foreign citizen fighting with the Ukrainian Army builds support with their home country.
It's a long term problem for Russia.
I would very much like to be proven wrong.
Post by: Stench Guzman on June 09, 2022, 11:43:50 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 09, 2022, 12:05:49 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 09, 2022, 12:27:52 pm
Mercenaries don't have Geneva Convention protection.
Article 47 -- Mercenaries
1. A mercenary shall not have the right to be a combatant or a prisoner of war.
2. A mercenary is any person who:
(a) is specially recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict;
(b) does, in fact, take a direct part in the hostilities;
(c) is motivated to take part in the hostilities essentially by the desire for private gain and, in fact, is promised, by or on behalf of a Party to the conflict, material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar ranks and functions in the armed forces of that Party;
(d) is neither a national of a Party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a Party to the conflict;
(e) is not a member of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict; and
(f) has not been sent by a State which is not a Party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces.
Those men are not mercenaries. It is an execution of POWs
Post by: martinuzz on June 09, 2022, 03:41:24 pm
And now they are sentenced to death.Stinking fuck nazi Ukrussians of the people's republic
Post by: Quarque on June 09, 2022, 03:59:28 pm
(https://metro.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/SEI_99430273-1.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&zoom=1&resize=540%2C303)
(source: Metro, picture: Sky)
They have been residents of Ukraine since 2018.
The third man sentenced to death, Saudun Brahim, was a student in Kiev before he joined the Ukrainian army in december 2021. Couldn't find much more about him.
I wish I had a fraction of their courage.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 10, 2022, 12:11:10 am
If not... Well, by the "laws" of this "republic" they have a month to appeal... So in a month we'll have a very pissed British nation and foreigners in Ukrainian service won't surrender anymore (and may become less prone to taking Russian prisoners)
This DNR will receive a well-deserved status of terrorists and Russia will join the lovely list of State Sponsors of Terrorism
Post by: King Zultan on June 10, 2022, 01:37:37 am
Also what happens when they put a whole country on a list of terrorist organizations?
Post by: Cathar on June 10, 2022, 09:08:29 pm
"People's Republic" in the Dombass and in Crimea (well, before its annexation) are usual clients of that kind of terrorism and extremist tactics. These are the same guys who shoot up civilian planes.
Part of me really want Russia to collapse economically and leave them on their own, explaining themselves to Ukraine legitimate power.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 11, 2022, 12:07:55 am
I see no good scenarios for them. Russia's victory, Ukraine's victory, long war, new stalemate. All options are bad or very bad.
Ukraine's victory is probably the only option that gives them some hope* but we are still talking about decades necessary to reach the quality of life of 2014, IF Western countries will help with the recovery.
*Isn't it ironic that people there see it as the worst option?
Post by: Cathar on June 12, 2022, 06:59:27 am
Also, it is for certain : their execution would be a warcrime, as the three of them were under Ukrainian army contract. A french commission is currently boots on the ground to investigate other warcrimes and it took interest in that POW situation.
Captured foreigners are not mercenaries, they are proper soldiers. The benefit of having a competant Ukrainian military infrastructure with little under-the-table contracts.
Post by: King Zultan on June 13, 2022, 01:39:08 am
Also, it is for certain : their execution would be a warcrime,Since when has that stopped them from doing it?
Post by: brewer bob on June 13, 2022, 05:00:10 am
Also, it is for certain : their execution would be a warcrime,Since when has that stopped them from doing it?
Yeah, seems more like if it's not a war crime, the Russian troops don't deem it worthy of doing.
Post by: Cathar on June 13, 2022, 05:27:17 am
Russia, which has been keeping the cities on life support since the beggining of the war, is probably on its last leg as its economy collapse.
My (again, very uninformed and unprofessional) opinion is they will try to use them as hostages to save the skin of their command. They will appeal their sentence and ask for grace, the process will be lenghtened indefinitely and threaten to off them when Ukraine will come banging at their door.
Post by: Robsoie on June 13, 2022, 05:27:50 am
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_crimes_in_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
Post by: Strongpoint on June 13, 2022, 07:27:44 am
In my very uninformed opinion, what may possibly stop them is the perspective of a prisonner exchange. The small spinoff cities are currently shitting their pants right now, their armies is made of every single state worker they could find. They don't have anyone to play the violin because the poor sods of the conservatory have already been pasted by Ukrainian artillery.
Russia, which has been keeping the cities on life support since the beggining of the war, is probably on its last leg as its economy collapse.
My (again, very uninformed and unprofessional) opinion is they will try to use them as hostages to save the skin of their command. They will appeal their sentence and ask for grace, the process will be lenghtened indefinitely and threaten to off them when Ukraine will come banging at their door.
There is a problem with that... Russian public is already celebrating that soon those filthy mercenaries will be properly punished. Just imprisioning\ exchanging them will be seen as weakness and only add to the growing dissent.
The Russian public is becoming increasingly angry due to the lack of big successes on the front. The last large Russian victory was when Mariupol's defenders surrendered on May 20.
Post by: brewer bob on June 13, 2022, 07:30:08 am
My (again, very uninformed and unprofessional) opinion is they will try to use them as hostages to save the skin of their command. They will appeal their sentence and ask for grace, the process will be lenghtened indefinitely and threaten to off them when Ukraine will come banging at their door.
I'm not sure, it could be the case, but I wouldn't count on it.
The first thing that came into my mind of the death sentences was that since capital punishment isn't allowed in Russia, they'd rather have them convicted in the occupied territories since there it's possible. I've got nothing to back this theory, but yeah, just a thought that occurred.
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 13, 2022, 07:37:01 am
Post by: Cathar on June 13, 2022, 01:52:42 pm
Whatever happens to those guys, Russian propaganda will milk it dry. If they are killed, they will blast "western governments did nothing to save them", if they are spared, they will blast on how magnanimous they are, and in the meantime try to exploit every bit of negociating power they can take from it.
Post by: brewer bob on June 13, 2022, 04:35:37 pm
Whatever happens to those guys, Russian propaganda will milk it dry. If they are killed, they will blast "western governments did nothing to save them", if they are spared, they will blast on how magnanimous they are, and in the meantime try to exploit every bit of negociating power they can take from it.
That's pretty much what will happen, I agree.
Post by: Sean Mirrsen on June 15, 2022, 02:24:27 am
That is litterally what I heard from pro russian bloggers I'm following. But even with that, there is no indication that thugs who disregard international law will somehow bow down to Russian law either. The three foreign soldiers were captured at the end of Mariupol's hold. Very, very far from the Dombas. They pretty much couldn't have been captured by separatist troops considering the geography and had to be delivered by actual Russian troops. This has to be deliberate.Mariupol is literally in the Donbass. It's in the territory of the Donetsk Oblast. DNR militia forces are heavily involved in the fighting on the eastern front, and Mariupol is their city. And those mercs have been killing their people, and are complicit in crimes against their civilians. So it's only fair they get tried according to the DNR laws.
Whatever happens to those guys, Russian propaganda will milk it dry. If they are killed, they will blast "western governments did nothing to save them", if they are spared, they will blast on how magnanimous they are, and in the meantime try to exploit every bit of negociating power they can take from it.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 15, 2022, 03:45:21 am
That is litterally what I heard from pro russian bloggers I'm following. But even with that, there is no indication that thugs who disregard international law will somehow bow down to Russian law either. The three foreign soldiers were captured at the end of Mariupol's hold. Very, very far from the Dombas. They pretty much couldn't have been captured by separatist troops considering the geography and had to be delivered by actual Russian troops. This has to be deliberate.Mariupol is literally in the Donbass. It's in the territory of the Donetsk Oblast. DNR militia forces are heavily involved in the fighting on the eastern front, and Mariupol is their city. And those mercs have been killing their people, and are complicit in crimes against their civilians. So it's only fair they get tried according to the DNR laws.
Whatever happens to those guys, Russian propaganda will milk it dry. If they are killed, they will blast "western governments did nothing to save them", if they are spared, they will blast on how magnanimous they are, and in the meantime try to exploit every bit of negociating power they can take from it.
Remains of Mariupol are indeed in Donbas. But let us be clear.
1) There are no Donbas people. Such nation never existed, doesn't exist, and will never exist. Should Russia win this war, they will become the part of the Russian Federation the next day without any autonomy whatsoever.
2) DNR is not a country. Neither it is a breakaway region. In the year 2014, a group of Russian mercs, Russian citizens occupied a part of Ukraine. They did get some help from local collaborators but all those forces always were commanded directly from Moscow from day 1. Ukrainian Army tried to kick those out but then the actual Russian army intervened and won. Since then this territory is occupied by Russia. Neither local people nor local "leaders" have any autonomy.
3) There are no laws in this territory because laws exist in countries not on occupied territories. Whatever rules established by occupying administration are not laws. The only laws that exist in DNR\LNR are Ukrainian laws. Those "courts" are no justice but a bunch of random guys cosplaying judges and prosecutors. I have as much right to sentence someone to death as them.
4) There are no DNR "militia". All those units are under direct command of Russia. Also, while some of them are voluntary collaborators. Most of this militia are forced conscripts who are used as cannon fodder. One of the many Russian war crimes.
5) Foreign citizens serving in the Ukrainian army are not mercs. Even volunteer units are not mercs. Earlier, I posted the definition of mercenary in Geneva conventions. Read it.
6) Russia doesn't even pretend that Mariupol is a part of the so-called DNR anymore. The city sing was repainted to the colors of the Russian flag, not the flag of the DNR
Post by: Starver on June 15, 2022, 04:00:19 am
And this is semi-reportery, but there seems to be concern that Putin was rather unstable on his feet at a recent televised ceremony, adding fuel to the fire that he's not necessarily in the best of health right now (with various guesses as to in what way). A comparison between him and HRH Queen Elizabeth II (who isn't scared to announce her age-related frailties, and has not so much to prove) would be interesting, insofar as how he might be cutting back on as much of the visual eye-candy-of-state as feasible. But, by all reports, he maybe ought not to have gone through with this one.
Post by: Sean Mirrsen on June 15, 2022, 04:51:54 am
DNR and LNR became nations when they declared their independence from Ukraine. They do not need to be 'recognized' by anyone in order to become nations. And yes, they will merge into Russia when they are back to their original borders, because such is the will of the people living there. Nobody in Ukraine asked the people whether they want to be in Ukraine. Nobody in Ukraine asked the people in Mariupol whether they wanted to be "defended" by the Azov. Russia, asked.That is litterally what I heard from pro russian bloggers I'm following. But even with that, there is no indication that thugs who disregard international law will somehow bow down to Russian law either. The three foreign soldiers were captured at the end of Mariupol's hold. Very, very far from the Dombas. They pretty much couldn't have been captured by separatist troops considering the geography and had to be delivered by actual Russian troops. This has to be deliberate.Mariupol is literally in the Donbass. It's in the territory of the Donetsk Oblast. DNR militia forces are heavily involved in the fighting on the eastern front, and Mariupol is their city. And those mercs have been killing their people, and are complicit in crimes against their civilians. So it's only fair they get tried according to the DNR laws.
Whatever happens to those guys, Russian propaganda will milk it dry. If they are killed, they will blast "western governments did nothing to save them", if they are spared, they will blast on how magnanimous they are, and in the meantime try to exploit every bit of negociating power they can take from it.
Remains of Mariupol are indeed in Donbas. But let us be clear.
1) There are no Donbas people. Such nation never existed, doesn't exist, and will never exist. Should Russia win this war, they will become the part of the Russian Federation the next day without any autonomy whatsoever.
2) DNR is not a country. Neither it is a breakaway region. In the year 2014, a group of Russian mercs, Russian citizens occupied a part of Ukraine. They did get some help from local collaborators but all those forces always were commanded directly from Moscow from day 1. Ukrainian Army tried to kick those out but then the actual Russian army intervened and won. Since then this territory is occupied by Russia. Neither local people nor local "leaders" have any autonomy.
3) There are no laws in this territory because laws exist in countries not on occupied territories. Whatever rules established by occupying administration are not laws. The only laws that exist in DNR\LNR are Ukrainian laws. Those "courts" are no justice but a bunch of random guys cosplaying judges and prosecutors. I have as much right to sentence someone to death as them.
4) There are no DNR "militia". All those units are under direct command of Russia. Also, while some of them are voluntary collaborators. Most of this militia are forced conscripts who are used as cannon fodder. One of the many Russian war crimes.
5) Foreign citizens serving in the Ukrainian army are not mercs. Even volunteer units are not mercs. Earlier, I posted the definition of mercenary in Geneva conventions. Read it.
6) Russia doesn't even pretend that Mariupol is a part of the so-called DNR anymore. The city sing was repainted to the colors of the Russian flag, not the flag of the DNR
All you're doing is spouting the regular Western public-perception bullshit, substituting terms in order to present the "right" conclusions for anyone stupid enough not to see through them. Whether or not DNR exists as a country, you're going to have to go to DNR and ask there. Whether or not there are laws in DNR, you're going to have to ask the DNR law enforcement. Whether or not the DNR militia exists, you're going to have to ask the DNR militia.
Maybe while you're there in Donetsk, asking around, you'll be hit by one of the hundreds of Ukrainian shells striking the city, and get a feel for which side is the one committing war crimes.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 15, 2022, 05:03:05 am
Quote
DNR and LNR became nations when they declared their independence from Ukraine.
Reichskommissariat Ukraine became a nation as soon as it declared its independence from the USSR! But I must say that Reichskommissariat Ukraine had much more right to be called a country because the Ukrainian ethnic group does exist. Donbasian ethnic group doesn't.
Quote
They do not need to be 'recognized' by anyone in order to become nations. And yes, they will merge into Russia when they are back to their original borders, because such is the will of the people living there.
Nation is not the same as a country. To be a country you do need to be recognized by at least a portion of other countries. To be a nation... you need such things as culture, language, history... They are no donbasian language, culture, history.
As for the "will of the people." - 1) No one asked them. There are no legitimate government to represent them. You also have no independent sociology there 2) How about asking those who left the occupied territory to save their lives?
Quote
Nobody in Ukraine asked the people whether they want to be in Ukraine. Nobody in Ukraine asked the people in Mariupol whether they wanted to be "defended" by the Azov.
Do you even understand what nonsense your words are? Ukrainian people defend their land from invaders. Why would Ukrainian people ask themselves to defend themselves?
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 15, 2022, 05:13:17 am
Пошёл в жопу, ватная свинья.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Strongpoint on June 15, 2022, 05:29:44 am
Quote
Maybe while you're there in Donetsk, asking around, you'll be hit by one of the hundreds of Ukrainian shells striking the city, and get a feel for which side is the one committing war crimes.
They bomb Donbas for 8 years!!!!
1) Ukraine has a severe lack of ammunition and artillery systems. No one will waste shells to hit civilian targets for no reason
2) If the enemy fires from within the city you will shoot back and sometimes you will miss and civilians will suffer. It is the reality of war. There were no shelling of Donetsk city since 2015. Perhaps restarting the war doesn't help safety of Donetsk, how do you think?
3) Ukraine doesn't do stuff like - hey, we know that civilians are hiding in the basement of Mariupol theater so let us drop a bunker-buster bomb to kill them just because we can. It was an intentional mass-murder of civilians. One of the many.
4) Any moron can look at fresh satellite photos and compare Donetsk which was "bombed for 8 years" and Mariupol which was "carefully liberated".
PS. Иди за русским военным кораблем
Post by: Sean Mirrsen on June 15, 2022, 06:10:59 am
QuoteDNR and LNR became nations when they declared their independence from Ukraine.
Reichskommissariat Ukraine became a nation as soon as it declared its independence from the USSR! But I must say that Reichskommissariat Ukraine had much more right to be called a country because the Ukrainian ethnic group does exist. Donbasian ethnic group doesn't.QuoteThey do not need to be 'recognized' by anyone in order to become nations. And yes, they will merge into Russia when they are back to their original borders, because such is the will of the people living there.
Nation is not the same as a country. To be a country you do need to be recognized by at least a portion of other countries. To be a nation... you need such things as culture, language, history... They are no donbasian language, culture, history.
As for the "will of the people." - 1) No one asked them. There are no legitimate government to represent them. You also have no independent sociology there 2) How about asking those who left the occupied territory to save their lives?QuoteNobody in Ukraine asked the people whether they want to be in Ukraine. Nobody in Ukraine asked the people in Mariupol whether they wanted to be "defended" by the Azov.
Do you even understand what nonsense your words are? Ukrainian people defend their land from invaders. Why would Ukrainian people ask themselves to defend themselves?
The 'Donbasian' ethnic group are Russian-speaking Ukrainians, Ukrainians of Russian descent and Russians of Ukrainian descent. Ethnicity is not an either/or. By saying they 'have no right' to self-determine, you oust yourself as a fascist.
There was always a legitimate government there. The Donetsk Oblast and the Luhansk Oblast are regions with local governance. Look up what an "oblast" is if you're sufficiently equipped for the task. The local government represents the people of the region, and the people of the region didn't want to stay in Ukraine. So the regions seceded.
Ukrainian people aren't defending "their" land from invaders right now. Right now the Donetsk and Luhansk militias are pushing Ukrainian invaders out of their territories, with the help of the Russian Army. And the Russian Army is also making sure that none of the other threats the Ukrainian government poses to the people of Russia, and the people under Russia's protection, continue to be threats.
Oh, I missed this masterpiece of Z-ombie thinking1) Ukraine had no lack of ammunition for the past 8 years. They started lacking ammunition when Russia blew up or took away most of their stockpiles. And when they spent all of their ammunition firing at Russian and LDNR troops. And now NATO is supplying them with more ammo and artillery. Several NATO 155mm shells that failed to detonate have already been recovered in Donetsk. Maybe now that DNR government asked Russia for Iskander systems to deal with Avdeevka and other artillery strongpoints around Donetsk the situation will change.QuoteMaybe while you're there in Donetsk, asking around, you'll be hit by one of the hundreds of Ukrainian shells striking the city, and get a feel for which side is the one committing war crimes.
They bomb Donbas for 8 years!!!!
1) Ukraine has a severe lack of ammunition and artillery systems. No one will waste shells to hit civilian targets for no reason
2) If the enemy fires from within the city you will shoot back and sometimes you will miss and civilians will suffer. It is the reality of war. There were no shelling of Donetsk city since 2015. Perhaps restarting the war doesn't help safety of Donetsk, how do you think?
3) Ukraine doesn't do stuff like - hey, we know that civilians are hiding in the basement of Mariupol theater so let us drop a bunker-buster bomb to kill them just because we can. It was an intentional mass-murder of civilians. One of the many.
4) Any moron can look at fresh satellite photos and compare Donetsk which was "bombed for 8 years" and Mariupol which was "carefully liberated".
PS. Иди за русским военным кораблем
2) There is no military in Donetsk. Literally none. The only 'military' there are the people actually living there, the law enforcement and crisis response. And Donetsk has been shelled constantly since 2014. Look up reports by Patrick Lancaster.
3) Ukraine literally does it. All the time. Russian forces take care not to hit civilians, otherwise Avdeevka and the problems of shelling in Donetsk would have already been over. Not too long ago Zelensky's spokesman Arestovich said "we can shell Kherson if we want to, it's our own city". Right this moment there is several hundred civilians forcibly held in the Azot plant in Severodonetsk by the VSU, to be used as human shields. Just recently a spokesman for Ukrainian military said "the reason we fight in cities is that it makes it easier to maneuver and take cover from incoming fire, reducing our losses". The Ukrainian military right now, is a terrorist force. And they're firing on what they insist is their own civilians.
4) And any moron can see how much destruction was actually wrought on Donetsk. And any moron can look at Mariupol and consider that perhaps the several thousand shells Donetsk gets hit with a year, are different to several thousand shells a day during the fighting in Mariupol, street-to-street fighting with heavy armor and terrorists hiding out in civilian buildings with Javelins and NLAWs. And any moron could also realize that, perhaps, a city that still has functioning crisis response, firefighting, and rescue services, won't suffer large-scale fires and will gradually rebuild as it takes day-to-day damage, compared to a city where none of that is possible, water supply and power has long been destroyed, every stray shell hitting a building could start a fire that nobody will put out, there are caches of weapons and ammo set up throughout causing devastating explosions when they are hit, and to top it all off the maniac "defenders" fire on anyone who moves through the streets, making damage control completely impossible.
Good day to you too.
Post by: martinuzz on June 15, 2022, 06:20:05 am
Post by: brewer bob on June 15, 2022, 06:21:20 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 15, 2022, 06:47:28 am
Jesus, what the hell is happening here?
RuZZian in the thread is happening! And believe me, he is very rational and polite compared to what I encounter on the Russian segment of the internet on a daily basis.
And no, I am not replying to his novel of nonsense even if I am tempted to.
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 15, 2022, 06:59:28 am
Post by: brewer bob on June 15, 2022, 08:29:17 am
I honestly didn't expect to see an unironic Putinist shill around here. Also note the implicit denial of Russian war crimes. 🤡
Same here. Quite surprised, actually.
It's like one thing to say Ukrainians have committed war crimes (it'd be surprising if one side didn't commit any during war), but claiming that "Russians take care not to hit civilians" (with evidence *clearly* pointing it's quite the opposite) is seriously delusional.
Oh, but let me guess, it's just that most of the world is conspiring against Russia and spreading falsehoods, while Russia has done absolutely nothing wrong and is right in all matters, no matter what.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 15, 2022, 08:43:03 am
Post by: heydude6 on June 15, 2022, 08:58:57 am
This one's for Toady to deal with.
Doubt that’s gonna happen, the dude isn’t some Escaped Lunatic who came here to troll. He’s a long-time user who happens to be Russian, he just never ended up red-pilled like you Max. In a way, he’s sort of like your evil twin. What you could have been if you were a normie.
There’s no malice in what he says, he genuinely believes this crap. And I don’t think Toadie has ever banned someone for simply expressing their beliefs, only calls to violence against oppressed groups, but he’s been careful to only talk about the “plight” of Donetsk civilians...
I think the best thing we can do is to share some sources for our facts with him and let him take a look at them. I doubt he’s heard of the Bucha massacre. He probably won’t bite, but at least he won’t think we’re fragile snow-flakes who ban people from our echo chambers because we’re afraid to defend our points in debate.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 15, 2022, 09:29:25 am
Quote
I doubt he’s heard of the Bucha massacre.
1) It is staged or
2) Those were, in fact, pro-Russian citizens of Ukraine killed by the Ukrainian nazies
This guy actually believes the nonsense like that there is no military units in the city of Donetsk (someone should tell the Ukrainian army on the outskirts, taking unguarded Donetsk would be useful). It is a flat-earther level of denying reality.
He is also from the camp that thinks that the Ukrainian army should leave the cities and let itself be destroyed in the open field. Doing otherwise is terrorism and using civilians as shields.
He conveniently ignores that all armies in the history of warfare did this. Including the Russian in this very war.
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 15, 2022, 09:31:27 am
Heh, interesting that my and Max's anticensorship views are quite opposite yet again. She wants Sean gone. I want more of Sean in this thread so everyone will see more of how a typical Russian thinks.::)
Long-time members have been banned for denying genocides. Which he did, quite clearly, with this quote:This one's for Toady to deal with.
Doubt that’s gonna happen, the dude isn’t some Escaped Lunatic who came here to troll. He’s a long-time user who happens to be Russian, he just never ended up red-pilled like you Max. In a way, he’s sort of like your evil twin. What you could have been if you were a normie.
There’s no malice in what he says, he genuinely believes this crap. And I don’t think Toadie has ever banned someone for simply expressing their beliefs, only calls to violence against oppressed groups, but he’s been careful to only talk about the “plight” of Donetsk civilians...
I think the best thing we can do is to share some sources for our facts with him and let him take a look at them. I doubt he’s heard of the Bucha massacre. He probably won’t bite, but at least he won’t think we’re fragile snow-flakes who ban people from our echo chambers because we’re afraid to defend our points in debate.
Quote
and get a feel for which side is the one committing war crimes.
I can guarantee you he did hear of the Bucha massacre. He just bit down on Russian propaganda about it and thinks it's fake. No amount of facts will change his mind. I tried with people like him, I really did. But they must either come to that realization themselves or continue to wallow in propaganda.
I don't care what a banned person would think of us as a community.
I don't understand Ukrainians who want the person denying that their people are being massacred to stay around. I literally don't understand.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 15, 2022, 10:02:51 am
Also, I am not afraid that a thinking, rational, and moral person may take his position.
Post by: heydude6 on June 15, 2022, 10:19:47 am
I believe there is bare minimum amount of effort expected of us to educate him before we can be allowed to write him off as a lost cause.
Unless he doesn’t believe Putin is Authoritarian of course. In that, case the amount of effort required to convince him of this basic fact alone will be too much to reasonably expect from your average person.
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 15, 2022, 10:49:48 am
I believe such a person may take up a position like this if he was controlled by an authoritarian government that only ever exposed him to “info” that supported that narrative, but I also expect that person to be willing to change his mind once he’s seen real facts.Many vatniks know Putin is authoritarian, they just don't care or think it's preferable to Western democracy. I don't have very high expectations of this person.
I believe there is bare minimum amount of effort expected of us to educate him before we can be allowed to write him off as a lost cause.
Unless he doesn’t believe Putin is Authoritarian of course. In that, case the amount of effort required to convince him of this basic fact alone will be too much to reasonably expect from your average person.
Guess we'll see if I was right about the viability (or lack thereof) of reeducating fascists online.
Post by: Starver on June 15, 2022, 10:51:18 am
And even when it became obvious it wasn't... No, I wasn't going to report him. I saw the "which side is committing warcrimes" as more a "well, your lot does it too!" thing.
Definitely not an opinion I'd agree with, but not an unagreeable personality, just misguided. Not trolling, just (however) either too closed of a mind, or such an open one that actual facts pour out again on the other side. By my reading, not a bannable condition. But it's not my criteria he'll be judged by. I'd like to know how he stayed unaware/unconcerned of the evidence against Russia's illegitimate warmongering and be reading threads such as these which should at least cast doubt on his local-type propogandising sources. The knee-jerk of doubling-down may have twitched but not lasted long, and I'd have expected more a mulling-over stage, right now, lurking and perhaps just dismissing everything we say but not capable of thinking thete was a valid complete-dismissal to be discussed.
But I'm no psychologist. And clearly I can be wrong about relative perspectives...
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 15, 2022, 11:00:19 am
There are some opinions for which I'd ban someone on sight. No matter how politely they are expressed. Call me bloodthirsty, or authoritarian, or whatever. It's a forum, not a country. It's not ruining someone's life by sending them to jail, it's kicking someone out from a forum about a dwarf game.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 15, 2022, 11:02:21 am
There is a good chance that we will see a nasty battle for Kherson in a few weeks. Ukrainian advance is creeping closer and closer to the city outskirts (~10km away).
It will be unpleasant... Ukraine won't employ an easy tactic of turn the city into a pile of rubble and then capture that pile like Russians did with each and every settlement except South where the Ukrainian front collapsed in the first few days.
There will be some accurate strikes into Kherson (I already anticipate Russian propaganda going - see! They kill their own citizens!) but it will have to be an honest assault of urban terrain.
Ukrainian infantry is far better trained and equipped for "counter-strike" and moral is way higher but it will be a bloody mess nevertheless.
__________________
Sieveredonetsk-Lysychansk agglomeration is becoming Mariupol 2.0. Just smaller in scale and without a full encirclement (at least yet). Still, I expect those towns to cease to exist during the next weeks and fall in Russian hands. At least, the majority of civilians were evacuated. Then, the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration will be the next major battle of Donbass front.
Looks like the whole Western part of Donbass region will be utterly destroyed and become unliveable for a long time even if Ukraine will reclain it and the West will help rebuilding it. If it will stay Russian... It will be depopulated ruins for decades with a fraction of the pre-war population. Way to help "donbas nation", Russia.
_____________
There are also indications that Russia has begun a new push toward Kharkiv but Kharkiv front is very fluid with constant back and forth.
Post by: Starver on June 15, 2022, 11:59:15 am
"Russian forces take care not to hit civilians" is a more blatant lie.A lie[1] but not an outright denial. Almost any fool knows that there will inevitably be civilians in the range of the crosshairs almost anywhere they shoot (if only the real stubborn/ ones who were too late to evacuate once the reality hit) but by using Exact Words there may be some care taken to hit more legitimate targets than illegitimate ones.
I expect conscript artillerymen will just be plugging coordinates into their sliderules and hoping they're hitting the things they were given map-references for by some higher-ups, divorced from the reality that whatever their commanders think they are doing, that big explosion when they hit that farm just happens to be a year's stock of fertiliser doing a Beirut, not indicative that they've just blown up an enemy supply depot. At some point (especially near the top of command) I expect it to be more sheer maliciousness than blythe incompetance, and I expect this also directs the misinformation trickled down into state-controlled media reports, but I probably tend to think well of the majority of those involved. It's not their fault they're being bamboozled into accepting bad things being done (or doing them, except for the true vicious bastards that get a taste for this kind of thing, with or without prior indoctrination).
And as for punished for telling blatant lies, your country punishes those who tell blatant truths, so that will shift perceptions and the range of motives a lot. Not necessarily a mitigating factor, but a consideration. Which isn't mine to judge.
[1] Or lack of knowledge, charitably. Though the cluster munitions dropped on railway stations crowded with evacuees, childrens' playgrounds, etc, are something discussed around here. The apparent targetting of much non-military infrsstructure cannot all be explained away by terrible aiming or because they suspected it was a covert military HQ. We hear very little of what Ukraine does in response (reliably) but I don't think this cleans the slate of what the very much relatively unfettered press reports have revealed of such 'accidents', especially with proven counter-misinformation re: maternity hospitals, etc.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 15, 2022, 12:42:24 pm
A simple example: in the period of 2015-2022 there was a low-intensity Russian-Ukrainian war with mutual shelling and occasional civilian deaths. In his twisted reality - Ukraine bombed its own territory just for fun and no civilians were killed by Russian forces. We have more civilian death per day than per year of that war but for moral monsters like Sean this war is an improvement of the situation and Russian Army is somehow liberating the people of Donbas by bring death and destruction which are orders of magnitude worse than what happened during the very low-intensity war.
Truth is that monsters like Sean don't really care about people. They just pretend that they do in order to justify their crimes. Destroyed Mariupol is not a tragedy for them but a reason to celebrate the "reconquest of Core Russian territory" as if it is freaking Europa Universalis and not real people. No matter how this war will end, the lives of people living in Donbas became much, much worse and this generation will never live better than they lived before February 24 2022. And many thousands won't live at all.
Post by: andrea on June 15, 2022, 12:47:54 pm
Post by: Starver on June 15, 2022, 01:00:55 pm
I just routinely checked tomorrow's Geohashing coordinates, BTW, and the Global Geohash is actually in Ukraine. In the middle of Kaniv Reservoir, though, just a little bit SE of Kyiv, almost directly north of Kaniv itself, so not an easy one to bag. Even without there being other things to worry about. But in case anybody is interested and aware of geohashing in the first place...
Post by: Quarque on June 15, 2022, 01:37:21 pm
DNR and LNR became nations when they declared their independence from Ukraine. They do not need to be 'recognized' by anyone in order to become nations. And yes, they will merge into Russia when they are back to their original borders, because such is the will of the people living there. Nobody in Ukraine asked the people whether they want to be in Ukraine. Nobody in Ukraine asked the people in Mariupol whether they wanted to be "defended" by the Azov. Russia, asked.When did Russia ask?
All you're doing is spouting the regular Western public-perception bullshit, substituting terms in order to present the "right" conclusions for anyone stupid enough not to see through them. Whether or not DNR exists as a country, you're going to have to go to DNR and ask there. Whether or not there are laws in DNR, you're going to have to ask the DNR law enforcement. Whether or not the DNR militia exists, you're going to have to ask the DNR militia.Did you go there and talk to them in person? Or maybe you live there?
I am genuinely puzzled how an intelligent person can sympathize with Putin in this war - if we can agree that it is a war? So if you don't mind, I would like to ask a few questions to get an idea where you're coming from:
How do you feel about Putin's speech in february, particularly this bit?
Quote
“Modern Ukraine was entirely and fully created by Russia, more specifically the Bolshevik, communist Russia,” Mr. Putin said. “This process began practically immediately after the 1917 revolution, and moreover Lenin and his associates did it in the sloppiest way in relation to Russia — by dividing, tearing from her pieces of her own historical territory.”(source: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/world/europe/putin-ukraine.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/world/europe/putin-ukraine.html))
How do you feel about Putin staying in power for over 20 years and jailing / poisoning political opponents? Do you believe that elections have been fair?
How do you feel about Putin shutting down independent media?
How about him jailing people for the crime of calling it a war?
Do you think Putin is right to talk about denazification of Ukraine? What do you think he means with that word?
Who exactly are "nazis"?
In what way are they "nazis"? Are we talking about ultranationalism, wars of conquest, a totalitarian regime, brown shirts, antisemitism, labor camps, or something else?
What should be done with them?
Post by: Strongpoint on June 15, 2022, 02:24:44 pm
Now Mariupol is destroyed, many are killed, and many more will hate Russia for the rest of their days. It is not like - Pre-war 60% were vaguely pro-Russian (voting for pro-Russian parties doesn't even mean that one wants to join Russia, it is often just believers of that myth of brotherly nations) and now after the city is destroyed, after mass looting, numerous cases of rapem fantastically pleasant procedure of filtration... There are no 60% anymore. Manu of those people now hate Russia with the exception of some brainwashed % with (mostly 50 years+) - It is Azov's fault. But even many of those will start hating Russia after they'll see that Russia has no intention for caring for them and rebuilding their city.
___________
As for the DPR... Lets dive in the recent history
Donetsk was the second richest region of Ukraine, it enjoyed a huge political influence over Ukrainian politics and in the year of 2010 their guy (corrupt as hell) became the president of Ukraine. That meant that Donetsk region was becoming even richer. They received a ridiculous amount of funding for hosting the European Football Championship in 2012 which further boosted their infrastructure.
Then, that scumbag of a president decided that he is ruling Russia and decided to order police to beat protestors. It didn't go well for him and he was kicked out. People of Donbas region were quite salty because their guy lost but there were no widespread separatism ideas.
Then Russia invaded the region with a group of mercenaries led by a war criminal Igor Girkin... Some of the local radicals became traitors and joined the invaders....
8 years passed. The majority of pro-Ukrainian residents fled to unoccupied Ukraine. The majority of the remaining active young people with any meaningful skills fled to Russia or Belarus to work there. All major businesses left... Tens of thousands (if not more) Russians migrated to DPR taking key roles everywhere and robbing the local population way more severely than corrupt Ukrainian politicians ever did. The region started degrading more and more
What did locals of Donetsk want for the new year 2022? Hard to say. Perhaps they wanted to live in a country with something resembling justice... Perhaps they want to bring economic prosperity back... Perhaps they got tired of the 8-year-long curfew and wanted that gone.
I am quite sure they didn't wish to be drafted and sent to die in a war. I am quite sure that they didn't want to have a serious problem with water which was coming from the unoccupied part of Ukraine (The whole region will have serious problems with water... local infrastructure, including several dams is destroyed). They didn't want to have even more Russians and North Caucasians in their home. They didn't want Russian artillery firing from within their cities and towns with the logical result of return fire. They didn't want to have prices for everything going up. No one asked them.
Post by: Robsoie on June 15, 2022, 02:41:52 pm
The 2 regions that compose the Donbas, the Donetsk Oblast and the Luhansk Oblast
In 1991 for the referendum regarding about Ukraine declaration of independance :
Donetsk Oblast : 83.9% of yes (64% of expressed votes)
Luhansk Oblast : 83.86% of yes (68% of expressed votes)
And on the whole of Ukraine in 1991 :
Quote
55% of the ethnic Russians in Ukraine voted for independence
A week later the USSR ceased to exist.
What happened then that completely fracked up the situation, the answer is
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maidan_Uprising
Quote
The protests were sparked by the Ukrainian government's sudden decision not to sign the European Union–Ukraine Association Agreement, instead choosing closer ties to Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union.That lead to this :
Ukraine's parliament had overwhelmingly approved of finalizing the Agreement with the EU, while Russia had put pressure on Ukraine to reject it. The scope of the protests widened, with calls for the resignation of President Viktor Yanukovych and the Azarov Government.
The protesters opposed what they saw as widespread government corruption, the influence of oligarchs, abuse of power, and violation of human rights in Ukraine. Transparency International named Yanukovych as the top example of corruption in the world. The violent dispersal of protesters on 30 November caused further anger. The Euromaidan led to the 2014 Revolution of Dignity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_of_Dignity
And then :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_pro-Russian_unrest_in_Ukraine
Interesting readings to see how things build up to end with Russia invading Ukraine.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 15, 2022, 07:52:34 pm
Discussing others forumites can bring one dangerously close to personal attacks, which are not allowed.
Now: This IS the Emotional Responses to War in Ukraine thread. So you may very well have an emotional response to what someone else says. I know I do.
And conversations are generally a good thing.
But constant discussions about someone that posted two pages ago can lead to the sort of emotional storm that risks the thread.
So, please try to avoid that.
Thank you for your assistance in this matter.
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 15, 2022, 11:14:10 pm
I iwll note that another reason not to exclude Sean from this forum and this thread in particular is that a lot of people from our side don't have such an easy and open channel to that viewpoint. If you live in Russia you are surrounded by it, but for people in EU or USA it is not so easy to get this kind of information (besides random comment trolls on social media). Understanding the other side of this conflict is important, no matter how much you disagree with it.I don't care for "understanding" the other side if they are fascists. The only thing to understand about them is how to fuck them over.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 15, 2022, 11:41:10 pm
I have a bad feeling about this... It does look like a team to persuade Zelensky to "seek a diplomatic solution."
Post by: heydude6 on June 16, 2022, 01:50:50 am
I hope Zelensky understands that Macron does not represent the entire European Union. Most people are still on Ukraine’s side.
I don’t think he’ll cave though. Russia made a massive mistake by tipping their hand early and revealing their plans for genocide. There is not a thing in the world that will make Ukraine surrender to that.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 16, 2022, 02:33:59 am
1) Ones that openly embrace the evil.
"We will solve the Ukrainian question once and for all." "Ukrainians must be reeducated and learn their place" "Turn every Ukrainian city into Bucha!"
2) Reality-deniers who live in the world in which Russia is holy and everyone else is an enemy.
"Ukrainians are nazi and\or Western puppets."
"Russian people aren't capable of war crimes and the only reason why the war... errr... the special military operation isn't over yet only because heroic Russian army avoids civilian casualties."
"Ukraine was totally ready to attack Russia because Biden ordered them to do so!"
"West hates us for no reason and they are hypocrites who failed to notice the 8-year-long genocide of Donbas people!!!"
3) Anti-Putin 'liberals'
"I and a huge majority of Russian people have nothing to do with Putin's action."
"Why did the West impose sanctions that made my life worse?" "How dare Ukrainians hate Russians and deny that we are one nation? War is Putin's fault not ours! Looks like those hateful Ukrainians are, indeed, nazies!"
"We are victims and can do nothing to stop the war, why do you blame us?"
4) People who don't want to be Russians anymore.
"Well, my relatives went crazy. Looks like I have no relatives anymore."
"Time to flee Russia while it is still possible."
"I want nothing to do with those murderers."
"My children will be *insert nationality of the country of residence*."
5) Russian nationalists\pariots in a good meaning of this word
"Oh... Cool. The reputation of my country is destroyed for decades and my nation is very, very ill. It is my duty to fix it. I'll probably die doing so."
"Yes, I am a Russian. Yes, I am still proud to be a Russian. Yes, I am sorry for what we are doing"
"Civil war is coming time to prepare for an active participation."
"Where do I sign up for the Freedom of Russia Legion?"
Sean is firmly in the category 2
Post by: King Zultan on June 16, 2022, 03:19:59 am
I don't care for "understanding" the other side if they are fascists. The only thing to understand about them is how to fuck them over.Yes yes we know you hate Nazis and what you perceive to be Nazis you've said it several thousand times now.
Why does it always feel like you can rely on the French to act in the most selfish way possible.I've always noticed that French people were selfish and self centered.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 16, 2022, 03:37:52 am
Spoiler: French you say? (click to show/hide)
Jokes aside, France does help with weapons. And Italy. Germany promises.
Post by: Starver on June 16, 2022, 05:07:53 am
I've always noticed that French people were selfish and self centered.*gallic shrug of contempt*
Post by: Strongpoint on June 16, 2022, 05:52:29 am
Who is this guy and where is the real Macron?
Post by: Grim Portent on June 16, 2022, 06:28:50 am
Or maybe he''s legitimately changed his mind. Hard to tell with public figures.
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 16, 2022, 06:37:36 am
It's not like I said it unprompted. The discussion came up.I don't care for "understanding" the other side if they are fascists. The only thing to understand about them is how to fuck them over.Yes yes we know you hate Nazis and what you perceive to be Nazis you've said it several thousand times now.
Post by: brewer bob on June 16, 2022, 07:06:53 am
“France has been alongside Ukraine since day one. We stand with the Ukrainians without ambiguity. Ukraine must resist and win,” Macron told journalists in Irpin in response to a question on his previous remarks that Russia must not be humiliated.
Who is this guy and where is the real Macron?
When I read the news, I had to re-read that part to make sure I hadn't read wrong, lol.
Post by: Quarque on June 16, 2022, 07:10:58 am
https://www.politico.eu/article/china-xi-give-most-direct-backing-putin-invasion-ukraine/ (https://www.politico.eu/article/china-xi-give-most-direct-backing-putin-invasion-ukraine/)
Post by: Starver on June 16, 2022, 08:46:22 am
In the meantime, China is shifting from neutral to pro-Russia.No sign that it's anywhere as much significantly helping out Russia than it's targetted at furthing pure Chinese interests, though. Perhaps a non-subtle backstop against which to leverage China's interactions with the rest of the (nominally sane) world. Putin isn't gaining much more from this (alone). And the Russia-China bridge opened last week with much ceremony was not in response to current needs (the fireworks/etc might have been adjusted a bit to current political detente).
https://www.politico.eu/article/china-xi-give-most-direct-backing-putin-invasion-ukraine/ (https://www.politico.eu/article/china-xi-give-most-direct-backing-putin-invasion-ukraine/)
China really has the advantage in the modern world, as a whole. The days when the Soviet Union was the prime Second-World influencer in the Third-World is long-gone, with Belt-And-Road stuff from the new juggernaut of the world in most products (except food? ...not sure how they are in the food game, even against the now broken breadbaskets of .ru/.ue). Perhaps why they tried to grab-back the First-World Aspirant (or even Achiever). And while hydrocarbons are still something Russia has not (by both its own efforts and the majority of Western countries) fully stemmed the flow of towards the previously willing partners in trade, pretty much everything else has been slammed into touch by one or other sanction/boycott actions.
Once the oil and gas thing is rearranged, assuming the need isn't relaxed before the final valves are fully closed, the 'free world' will still have its dependency upon the Chinese market-regions like Shenzhen or via the Cantonese Expo/etc. Russia has nothing like it.
(They have the 'industry' of Baikonur, which hasn't yet been overtaken by Jiuquan, but with NASA/ESA/etc facilities already taking the slack up (space-agency or corporates like SpaceX and the other up-and-coming hopefuls from Bezos, Branson and others that don't necessarily start with Bs). They no longer even have the monopoly in man-rated launches like they did post-Shuttle, though China has not done too much to 'export' their capability in that, and prior to Boeing proving itself properly we're left with just Elon's ride for to-/beyond-orbit possibilities.)
Post by: Strongpoint on June 16, 2022, 12:37:47 pm
Now, Russian TV casually discusses a possible execution of two American POW
Post by: EuchreJack on June 16, 2022, 03:41:37 pm
“France has been alongside Ukraine since day one. We stand with the Ukrainians without ambiguity. Ukraine must resist and win,” Macron told journalists in Irpin in response to a question on his previous remarks that Russia must not be humiliated.
Who is this guy and where is the real Macron?
I'm just going to assume the "Resist and win" Macron is the real one. Totally legit that guy, not the other one.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 17, 2022, 02:12:07 am
If true, it may be the first successful use of Harpoons in the war
Post by: King Zultan on June 17, 2022, 03:14:57 am
Probably should have worded that better I didn't mean all French people.I've always noticed that French people were selfish and self centered.*gallic shrug of contempt*
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 17, 2022, 04:42:01 am
Ukrainian Navy claims that the Russian 1200t tug Vasily Bekh was destroyed by two Harpoon missiles. It carried TOR SAM system, supplies and fresh troops to the Snake Island
If true, it may be the first successful use of Harpoons in the war
There is video purporting to be the missile strike.
There are also reports that Ukraine used a tactical ballistic missile to destroy a major artillery ammunition storage depot in Krasnyi Luch, which might be eniugh to slow or even halt a major portion of the Russian offensive for a time.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 17, 2022, 09:56:47 am
Post by: EuchreJack on June 17, 2022, 11:21:08 am
My thoughts: It seems we are moving into a new stage with our perceptions of the War in Ukraine. It is no longer the recent invasion and now it is the long term struggle.
Less time is spent discussing the specific events of the war, and more time is spend discussing the effects of the war.
I know a lot of Americans don't want to fund it at the same level. Which to me, makes sense. Guns are more expensive than ammo, on the most basic level of understanding.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 17, 2022, 11:54:25 am
I knew that this would happen.
Post by: brewer bob on June 17, 2022, 12:27:17 pm
"War fatigue" is obviously happening in the West. It isn't something new and exciting. It is background now...
I knew that this would happen.
I'm actually quite surprised that many news outlets still have live updates going. Which is a positive thing.
I've also had to stop myself from reading the news constantly (for my own sanity), but I still check them several times a day.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 17, 2022, 12:40:33 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 17, 2022, 03:58:39 pm
I know a lot of Americans don't want to fund it at the same level. Which to me, makes sense. Guns are more expensive than ammo, on the most basic level of understanding.
There's whining from candidates about the cost, but that's to be expected - it is election season. Polls show that support for "give Ukraine everything they want" is still overwhelmingly high. Indeed, the most common criticism I see from ordinary people are misguided (the logistics challenges of getting stuff from the transshipment point in Poland to the front lines are incredible, and only possible at all because Ukraine has spent a ton of labor building the necessary networks) claims that the most recently announced aid packages are not good enough.
Post by: Starver on June 17, 2022, 04:09:21 pm
(I'm sure there's no truth to the fact that, given his many detractors at home, he thought that if he actually went into the active warzone that he'd still find less flak going his way.)
Whoops, a little political, Ladies and Gentlemen... I do apologise!
Post by: Strongpoint on June 17, 2022, 04:18:01 pm
War in the digital age is quite personal.
Post by: Starver on June 17, 2022, 06:34:24 pm
Possibly some account bannings will result. Inconveniencing a few genuine yet abhorent individuals. Water off a duck's back and adding a few more minutes' overtime for the fake but at least as abhorent ones who wish to fulfill tomorrow's quota as well.
I'd give my sympathies to the party concerned (the original Tweeter to whom both the news and the backlash hit home), but I can't pretend to have sufficiently comforting or reassuring words for either issue. I might just wish inconveniences upon the beligerants responsible for either/both attacks, for all the good I can hope to do to make the situation feel better. I'm not actually past caring, but I also know I'm too adrift from any practical solution, so these rambling sentences of mine are pretty much as good as I could really provide. Take them how you can, if you need them at all. Otherwise, ignore my verbose exasperation at a situation not even of your making.
Post by: heydude6 on June 17, 2022, 06:54:41 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 18, 2022, 01:14:41 am
How would you have felt if he died fighting in the Russian army?
Who said I wasn't talking about a Russian poster and Ukrainians doing a commenting raid?
Post by: King Zultan on June 18, 2022, 03:56:25 am
Post by: EuchreJack on June 18, 2022, 07:39:57 am
That won't help Ukraine in the long run.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/06/17/economy/inflation-wage-gains-economy/index.html (https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/06/17/economy/inflation-wage-gains-economy/index.html)
I mean, instead of blaming COVID and the Government's response under both Republicans AND Democrats, Inflation is ALL the fault of the War in Ukraine. Sure, short term we just blame the Russians. But Americans are selfish and self-centered. Any solution to end the War in Ukraine will be championed by at least some Americans.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 18, 2022, 08:02:39 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 18, 2022, 10:22:04 am
Good read about the Right Sector, the closest approximation to cossacks one can have in 2022.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 18, 2022, 10:36:50 am
Not done yet, just had to stop and post this most humorous part.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Ok, finished. Sadly, the author is quite right that many of those brave souls will likely perish in the war.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 18, 2022, 12:26:14 pm
She is not just any paramedic, she is a "neo-nazi" paramedic according to the Russian media. They invented an insane story about how she killed parents of two children and tried to scare those children into saying that she is their mom and trying to slip away from Mariupol.
Just as I expected, Russian "patriotic" segment of the internet is quite pissed because of that and they don't care that it, almost certainly, was some undisclosed prisoner exchange.
Post by: brewer bob on June 18, 2022, 04:16:23 pm
https://unherd.com/2022/06/on-the-frontline-with-the-right-sector-militia/
Good read about the Right Sector, the closest approximation to cossacks one can have in 2022.
That was an interesting read.
However:
Quote
The group’s mission statement on its website asserts that its goal is “Ukraine’s liberation from both external — Kremlin’s — and internal occupation of clan-oligarchic groups, as well as struggle against the imposition of extreme-liberal, cultural-Marxist ideas upon the Ukrainian society.”
Claiming not to be far-right and using a term from a far-right conspiracy theory starts to ring alarm bells, so they're not getting off the hook so easily in my books (but I do agree with their statement that far-right movements are stronger in Western Europe than in Ukraine).
...Not that this matters so much currently, and I do support and respect their contribution to fight off the invasion.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 18, 2022, 07:51:44 pm
Try to remember that the guy who wrote that mission statement on their website is probably the one most likely to still be alive in a year, for whatever that is worth. It sounds like a lot of the soldiers on the front lines haven't even seen the website.https://unherd.com/2022/06/on-the-frontline-with-the-right-sector-militia/
Good read about the Right Sector, the closest approximation to cossacks one can have in 2022.
That was an interesting read.
However:QuoteThe group’s mission statement on its website asserts that its goal is “Ukraine’s liberation from both external — Kremlin’s — and internal occupation of clan-oligarchic groups, as well as struggle against the imposition of extreme-liberal, cultural-Marxist ideas upon the Ukrainian society.”
Claiming not to be far-right and using a term from a far-right conspiracy theory starts to ring alarm bells, so they're not getting off the hook so easily in my books (but I do agree with their statement that far-right movements are stronger in Western Europe than in Ukraine).
...Not that this matters so much currently, and I do support and respect their contribution to fight off the invasion.
Post by: brewer bob on June 18, 2022, 08:43:21 pm
It sounds like a lot of the soldiers on the front lines haven't even seen the website.
Yeah, thought of that, and didn't intend to feed into Putin's "Ukrainians are Nazis" narrative with my comment, so, sorry if I gave that impression.
Putin is the problem, not these guys.
Post by: bloop_bleep on June 18, 2022, 09:51:23 pm
For them it could just represent a veering away from traditional customs and practices. That's a common point of lamentation for a lot of conservative groups, even not extreme ones.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 19, 2022, 01:21:45 am
I expect a glorious shitstorm in social networks no matter what the result of the vote will be. Many people will forget about the war and switch their attention to "more important" problems like mentions of "gender" and "gender identity" in this convention.
Post by: King Zultan on June 19, 2022, 04:42:17 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 19, 2022, 05:29:51 am
Isn't that what Russia wants, to make everyone stop caring about the war so they can keep doing whatever they want without repercussions.
Kinda. But you must understand the realities of war. If you think that the whole Ukrainian nation united to repel the invader and...
It isn't how it works. There are a lot of people who don't really care and hope to wait it out. There are scumbags who look for ways to profit from the war. There are traitors.
And internal political games and power struggles didn't stop. Not at all
Post by: heydude6 on June 19, 2022, 11:18:09 am
Among other domestic Ukrainian news, the Ukrainian parliament will vote for the ratification of the Istanbul Convention tomorrow.
Just read the Wikipedia article on that and my god, it's like that thing was designed to piss people off! It's one of the most far-left documents I've ever seen!
And that's all I'll say about it because this isn't Europol. All I will say is that Ukraine should have post-boned their decision on this till after the war when national unity isn't a matter of national security.
Post by: hector13 on June 19, 2022, 11:31:08 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 19, 2022, 12:00:49 pm
Among other domestic Ukrainian news, the Ukrainian parliament will vote for the ratification of the Istanbul Convention tomorrow.
Just read the Wikipedia article on that and my god, it's like that thing was designed to piss people off! It's one of the most far-left documents I've ever seen!
And that's all I'll say about it because this isn't Europol. All I will say is that Ukraine should have post-boned their decision on this till after the war when national unity isn't a matter of national security.
Yeah, as an anti-theist, I may enjoy how they freak out about the definition of gender and this convention brings a lot of good things but it isn't the time for such steps.
Then again, we entered the war with the most unprofessional and populist parliament ever so I don't expect sound political decisions from them. Thankfully, our generals are actually competent.
(For the record: I think that the "Gender is a social construct" is a quite dumb reality-denying idea and would prefer to not have it in the Law. Not as reality-denying as religions and I don't care that much if someone pushes it but still... Gender ROLES are a social construct but they are still influenced by our anatomy. If we say that gender is a social construct, then society can change someone's gender, literally make someone trans and it is not how transgender works. But it is not the place to discuss it. If someone really wants to argue with me on this topic I may do so in another thread)
hector13
The problem is the presence of the "gender" (the Ukrainian language doesn't even have gender\sex distinction, they are literally adding a new word by transliteration the English one) and "gender identity". Our churches\conservatives are literally saying "remove those and we can't support this convention more."
Post by: bloop_bleep on June 19, 2022, 12:24:22 pm
Post by: heydude6 on June 19, 2022, 12:29:15 pm
Isn’t that the violence against woman thing? Why is saying violence against women is bad and should be criminalsed controversial?
It’s already bad and it’s already criminalized. The document is more of an expansion to existing domestic violence laws, and it takes things in an extreme far-left direction.
As Strongpoint mentioned, the bill goes out of its way to define gender and it uses the “gender is a social construct” definition, but that isn’t the only thing in there that might rub people the wrong way.
The problem is this, Ukraine is not a progressive country. Race relations are still stuck in the 80s. This bill is not going to be accepted by the Ukrainian people and when it gets rejected, bad actors will use this to argue that Ukrainians are bigots (true) and Europe should not dirty itself by helping them out (let’s just be complicit in genocide instead). Tankees are enough trouble as it is.
If it somehow does pass, then Ukrainians will accuse the European government of blackmailing Ukraine into signing it and then faith in the government at this crucial time will be damaged.
Regardless, it’s gonna hurt the war effort.
EDIT: Ninjaed
Post by: bloop_bleep on June 19, 2022, 12:34:09 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 19, 2022, 01:14:46 pm
Quote
The problem is this, Ukraine is not a progressive country. Race relations are still stuck in the 80s.
I can agree that the type of racism that comes from uneducated violent losers is not uncommon but compared to the 80s of the US... No, not really. You also should understand that black-skinned and Asian people are quite exotic in Ukraine, especially outside of large cities.
Sure, there are more problems with Romani and North Caucasian people but when it goes like "I dislike ethnic group X, ethnic group X usually looks like this, I dislike people that look like this," it (usually) isn't true racism but an ethnic conflict and\or xenophobia.
Quote
This bill is not going to be accepted by the Ukrainian people and when it gets rejected
If I'd have to bet, I'd say that it is 2 to 1 that it will be ratified tomorrow.
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 19, 2022, 10:53:31 pm
snipI disagree with this, though I generally agree that it should be left for after the war.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 20, 2022, 01:07:16 am
snipI disagree with this, though I generally agree that it should be left for after the war.
I would be very surprised if you didn't.
Anyway, if you are in a mood to discuss Sex-Gender difference, gender, gender roles, transgender, etc - feel free to call me to whatever thread in which it will be an on-topic discussion.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 20, 2022, 06:02:43 am
If I'd have to bet, I'd say that it is 2 to 1 that it will be ratified tomorrow.
And it is ratified. I should go and enjoy the storm on social networks. It would be such a huge topic in peacetime but few people seem to actually care now. Priorities have been shifted.
_________
Among other news, there are yet to be confirmed reports that the Russian garrison on the Snake island got a very fiery morning
Post by: King Zultan on June 21, 2022, 01:17:50 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 21, 2022, 01:27:37 am
Seems like a weird thing to be worrying about while the country is being bombed.
Yep. I'd very much prefer our parliament being busy... i dunno... pass laws to mitigate the effects of the economy collapsing?
There is one other thing that bothers me... With this kind of accelerated wartime voting, parliament can vote nearly anything because people are kinda busy with fighting for survival and don't care much about.
Thankfully, our constitution says that the constitution can't be changed during martial law.
Post by: Starver on June 21, 2022, 04:06:14 am
I've seen enough of that from my own government.
I find it a good sign that the... (checks...) 450 members of the Verkhovna Rada and all their staffers aren't all of them all 24/7 devoted to merely the war (aside from the obvious "too many cooks" problems, if they were!) but can indeed do things that are 'normal', and show that the country isn't so much besieged mentally as well as physically.
Obviously, it'd be bad if only "displacement activities" were being discussed, too, but I take it that this has been in the air before the invasion started and that (without too much shift in schedule, if any) it at least wasn't hastily brought out of nowhere to distract everyone or keep them busy while the top-tier just coldly planned which Russian city to obliterate first...
Post by: Strongpoint on June 23, 2022, 02:03:42 pm
...
(not)
Post by: nenjin on June 23, 2022, 03:21:36 pm
Post by: hector13 on June 23, 2022, 06:45:56 pm
Post by: martinuzz on June 23, 2022, 08:22:07 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2022, 12:55:26 am
Post by: King Zultan on June 24, 2022, 02:49:23 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2022, 04:52:44 am
So why waste time on getting into the EU if it won't actually help with the war effort?
Well, it does boost morale of Ukrainians who are less
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 24, 2022, 05:08:14 am
Post by: hector13 on June 24, 2022, 08:12:35 am
Post by: Grim Portent on June 24, 2022, 08:31:24 am
Really there's a large portion of Ukraine who can't do anything to help with the war other than just keep the ordinary course of life going, and strenghening ties with the EU is one of the things they've decided is part of that.
Post by: Starver on June 24, 2022, 09:04:33 am
But to never consider beyond the immediate issue..?
I think there are many hurdles, and I think that reconstruction (in the not unhoped for futures, at least) and internal reconciliations and (possibly[1]) dealing with any unacceptable pre-existing issues of corruption and the like... they cannot be indefinitely deferred from consideration. Difficult to plan ahead, but also an important message to all concerned to consider it a possibility. Provocative to Russia (be careful with that, they may violently take against it and decide to ...invade? Oh, wait!) and strengthens ties to those that have already pledged (to varying degrees) their support.
The big problem is the dissenters within the EU (one major suspect, on that line, and possibly others, but maybe more "Match, Skinhead and 3-D" to the quite obvious Biff Tannen), or indeed NATO, who will counter even a reasonable opportunity in the future if Ukraine has fixed its current issues but other places have not. (Or at least still have a powerplaying head of state, which time may also manage to cure by one or another outcome.)
[1] I have no knowledge of such things, save that I would expect them in any government system (including my own). And, with the prejudice born of the West, very much so in those systems only recently dragged out from the Soviet system, with hold-outs and claw-backs alike fearing the more idealistic practices of democracy, or usurping and using those less savoury aspects. The irony is that Ukraine has done quite well to actually emerge from under the old non-Western system, unlike some notable neighbours, which is of course much of what has frightened those neighbours' more despotic rulers[2]. In other parts of the world we have seen successful popular revolutions do much worse.
[2] And now, in turn, these rulers' actions have frightened other leaders of nations that, by my understanding, are nowhere near as reformed/reforming as Ukraine. Which is a strange scenario.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 24, 2022, 10:45:44 am
The EU is an economic and political union, not a military alliance
Not quite accurate, as the EU does have a mutual defense clause AND a standing army.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2022, 11:06:53 am
It's not exactly something that takes away from the war effort. It's not like the politicians and civil servants involved were pulled away from the frontlines or were involved in coordinating military actions.
Really there's a large portion of Ukraine who can't do anything to help with the war other than just keep the ordinary course of life going, and strenghening ties with the EU is one of the things they've decided is part of that.
I am less of "they should stop doing that and do something more useful." and more of "they should stop pretending that this status is a big deal."
As you correctly said, the best thing most people can do during a war is to do their pre-war job really well.
I especially like how the Ukrainian show business went into the war mode from day 1. Many of them lost their main source of profit (Russian-speaking market) by doing so
___________________
Speaking about show business, one of the most popular Russian bands, Little Big, released an anti-war music video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Yy4RP4FMNk) and left Russia. It has a generic anti-war and anti-propaganda message with nothing pointing directly at Russia but, judging by the feast in youtube comments, they are now firmly in the Enemy of the People list.
Post by: Starver on June 24, 2022, 11:27:10 am
AND a standing army.Do you mean the 414th Tank Battalion? (Germany had tanks with not enough crews, the Netherlands had crews but not enough tanks, so they merged their resources...)
Otherwise, no, there is no EU Standing Army. Often suggested (by 'Good Europeans') and frequently derided (by the Euroskeptics) but never actually implemented. The 'core six' (the Benelux nations plus France, Italy and West Germany) might have formed up, under some plans, but it never happened.
There's a NATOesque inter-force cooperation and coordinating thing, of course, where it can be distinguished from normal NATO business (e.g. any joint excercise involving Sweden/Finland, up till now at least... And I'm sure Ireland participates at least occasionally, and of course the US would need to be absent) but no soldiers who are not really already in their own (or adopted) nation's standing army, however close their interoperability with soldiers from a different corner of the Union.
Post by: EuchreJack on June 24, 2022, 11:45:41 am
...well, to be honest I was more talking about the shared technical data. Ukraine as a EU member would be in a better position to acquire and manufacture EU equipment, instead of having to work with old Russian equipment.
Post by: hector13 on June 24, 2022, 02:55:19 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 24, 2022, 03:02:57 pm
That's why so much of the aid has been Soviet-era gear that the Ukrainians are already fully trained on, or very simple systems - a Javelin or Stinger is easy to use and needs little maintenance, a M177 howitzer isn't that much different from a D-30, etc.
From a strictly material sense, the US has something like 4000 modern MBTs parked in the desert. If Ukraine could make practical use of them, they'd already be getting loaded on a boat.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 24, 2022, 03:38:27 pm
From a strictly material sense, the US has something like 4000 modern MBTs parked in the desert. If Ukraine could make practical use of them, they'd already be getting loaded on a boat.
Citing its sources in NATO, the German Press Agency reported that alliance members have informally agreed not to supply the weapons to Ukraine, fearing Russia could see the delivery of Western tanks and combat aircraft as entering the war and take retaliatory measures, German newspaper Die Zeit reported.
And I suspect that it is very true.
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 24, 2022, 04:15:35 pm
As for the US specifically, the only thing holding up a shipment of extremely capable US combat drones is an automatic security review - the internal paperwork wasn't filled out correctly.
Besides this, almost everything short of bona-fide tanks and aircraft have been sent. APCs, MLRS systems, extremely good artillery, world-class man-portable anti-tank and anti-air missiles, shipkillers, etc. There's no material difference in the level of "provocation" such systems provide.
The one common denominator in the systems that have not been sent (tanks, aircraft, big SAMs) is that they all take a great deal of training, logistical support, and service knowledge to operate. Those are not trivial concerns.
Post by: brewer bob on June 24, 2022, 04:39:01 pm
As for the US specifically, the only thing holding up a shipment of extremely capable US combat drones is an automatic security review - the internal paperwork wasn't filled out correctly.
Wasn't there also the issue of the US being afraid that Russians might get their hands on the drones and the tech within?
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 24, 2022, 05:45:30 pm
So far, risks of tech transfer have not been a major concern. A lot of the stuff already given is pretty close on the sensitivity scale.
Post by: brewer bob on June 24, 2022, 06:23:58 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on June 27, 2022, 10:14:51 am
What is the point of this blatant, senseless terrorism? Do they really expect that it can make us surrender?
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 27, 2022, 06:28:46 pm
Post by: heydude6 on June 27, 2022, 06:51:06 pm
Post by: nenjin on June 27, 2022, 07:24:39 pm
Hard to know what it means, other than the obvious (that whoever authorized it is a monster.) A sign of confidence, desperation or just evil? Or that Russian military hierarchy is just so badly disorganized that this happened.
Post by: brewer bob on June 27, 2022, 07:32:52 pm
A sign of confidence, desperation or just evil?
If there exists an evil in this world, it is Putin and his lackeys.
I can't really think of anything else to say about the missile strike and other atrocities.
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 28, 2022, 12:08:57 am
Post by: Quarque on June 28, 2022, 12:51:12 am
Post by: Strongpoint on June 28, 2022, 01:23:39 am
I am about two or three steps away from thinking Putin is the Antichrist.
He is Khuilo and he should retain this title in history. Calling him Antichrist is flattering him.
Also, Antichrist is meant to be loved by humanity, this is clearly not the case. Even Russian imperialists and neo-nazi despise this creature (for different reasons than you and I.) Putin is loved only by truly brainless people
Post by: Starver on June 28, 2022, 07:45:37 am
Or Russia just did as the US did in Yugoslavia (and in countless other cases) and precisely hit an imprecisely identified target (this time it wasn't a Chinese Embassy/whatever, though).
But these are just excuses. Every possible interpretation puts Russia (and/or those directly responsible within Russia) in a bad light, just various different hues of that light. Incompetance, carelessness, psychpathy, etc... If they choose to say anything about it (internally or externally), they will of course choose whichever version they can best spin. "There were International Mercenaries training there, in secret" or "Ukraine got a lucky interception onto our missile, which then fell onto their own mall" or something. So far, I've not heard of anything they said, so maybe it'll just be silence (publically, at least).
[1] We've seen what happens with actual chemical-plant incidents, and yesterday there was that single shipping-container of Chlorine apparently dropped in that Jordanian port..
Post by: martinuzz on June 28, 2022, 08:01:52 am
If they choose to say anything about it (internally or externally), they will of course choose whichever version they can best spin. "There were International Mercenaries training there, in secret" or "Ukraine got a lucky interception onto our missile, which then fell onto their own mall" or something. So far, I've not heard of anything they said, so maybe it'll just be silence (publically, at least).The Russian ministry of Defense told the Russian press agency RIA that the missile targeted a 'storage for Western weapons' near the mall, hit that, and that the subsequent fires destroyed the 'abandoned' mall
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/g7-verzekert-oekraine-van-steun-en-wil-oorlogsmachine-poetin-hard-raken-vrouw-en-dochter-biden-op-russische-sanctielijst~bdee0d5a/
Quote
Rusland: raketaanval Krementsjoek was gericht op wapenopslag
Rusland ontkent dat het een raketaanval op een winkelcentrum in Krementsjoek heeft uitgevoerd. Het ministerie van Defensie zegt tegenover het Russische persbureau RIA dat de aanvallen waren gericht op een nabijgelegen opslagplaats voor ‘westerse’ wapens. De explosies zouden vervolgens een brand hebben veroorzaakt die het ‘verlaten’ winkelcentrum in de as legde. De berichtgeving kon niet onafhankelijk worden geverifieerd.
Kyiv beschuldigt Rusland van het doelbewust uitvoeren van aanvallen op burgerdoelen. Behalve in Krementsjoek werden in de afgelopen dagen ook burgers gedood in Kyiv, Charkiv en Lysytsjansk. De leiders van de G7, de groep van vooraanstaande democratische industrielanden die momenteel bijeen zijn in Duitsland spraken al van een ‘oorlogsmisdaad’. De VN-veiligheidsraad heeft voor vanavond een spoedvergadering belegd.
In het winkelcentrum in Krementsjoek kwamen gisteren ten minste 18 mensen om het leven. Tientallen mensen worden nog vermist.
Post by: MaxTheFox on June 28, 2022, 08:14:25 am
Plausible conspiracy theory: Yeltsin didn't "choose" Putin as his successor, he was blackmailed.Yeltsin was pretty terrible in general. He may have a good reputation in the West, but he was a terrible leader.
Also, Antichrist is meant to be loved by humanity, this is clearly not the case. Even Russian imperialists and neo-nazi despise this creature (for different reasons than you and I.) Putin is loved only by truly brainless peopleYeah, that's my main reason for not truly believing that.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 28, 2022, 09:31:19 am
Yeltsin was pretty terrible in general. He may have a good reputation in the West, but he was a terrible leader.
And a War Criminal. If the world didn't choose to ignore the war crimes of the 1st Chechen war and sanctioned Russia then, the world would be so much better now.
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 28, 2022, 11:02:19 am
Against a city, they might as well be addressed with "to whom it may concern", and it is little surprise that the brightest radar return was a shopping mall. With a weapon of this sort, targeting a specific building is effectively impossible.
Post by: nenjin on June 28, 2022, 11:27:37 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on June 28, 2022, 11:36:09 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on June 28, 2022, 12:44:15 pm
I can't figure out what plant that is on the google maps. Is it the 'road machinery' one?
Post by: EuchreJack on June 28, 2022, 02:12:35 pm
Spoiler: inappropriate joke from your OP, that should know better... (click to show/hide)
Post by: brewer bob on June 28, 2022, 06:08:51 pm
So, I guess Erdogan finally decided to allow Sweden and Finland to join Nato
Apparently we're lifting the arms embargo and taking measures against Kurdish "terrorists". It's probably too early to say anything, but I'm getting really concerned about what'll happen to our Kurdish population.
In case if someone is wondering who are these "PKK terrorists" that Erdogan wants to be extradited, here's some examples:
13 years ago several Kurdish youth (aged 16-21 at that time) decided to light the door of the Turkish Embassy on fire after an evening in a bar. No one was injured, and the youth were convicted of arson. Most of them are now Finnish citizens after SUPO (The Finnish Security and Intelligence Service) interviewed them. Now Turkey wants them extradited.
Another "terrorist" is someone who allegedly insulted Erdogan at some point. He too is requested to be extradited.
There's probably connections to PKK with some of those who Erdogan wants extradited (12 in total, I think), but that doesn't really say much about whether they're terrorists or not. But if they were, I'm pretty sure they would've been deported already.
Post by: scriver on June 29, 2022, 02:12:27 am
Post by: EuchreJack on June 29, 2022, 03:34:17 pm
But it sucks those people have to move.
Post by: Strongpoint on June 29, 2022, 03:36:41 pm
The radical Russian segment of the internet is NOT HAPPY about that.
Post by: brewer bob on June 29, 2022, 04:07:36 pm
A large POW exchange happened today. 144 Ukrainian soldiers (notably, 44 are from the Azov regiment) for 144 Russian. Many of those are seriously wounded and war is over for them.
Has there yet been any news on how they've been treated while being captive? Haven't been following news so much today.
If we're only talking about 12 people, I would think they could "mysteriously relocate" prior to the agreement beginning.
But it sucks those people have to move.
I'm quite sure that at least most of these extradition requests will be refused, but who knows how things'll play out in the future. The trilateral memorandum was so vague that it could mean that nothing will change or that Turkey will interpret it the way they want.
This part particularly raised questions:
Quote
Finland and Sweden confirm that the PKK is a proscribed terrorist organisation. Finland and Sweden commit to prevent activities of the PKK and all other terrorist organisations and their extensions, as well as activities by individuals in affiliated and inspired groups or networks linked to these terrorist organisations. Türkiye, Finland and Sweden have agreed to step up cooperation to prevent the activities of these terrorist groups. Finland and Sweden reject the goals of these terrorist organisations.
So, YPG (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Defense_Units) apparently is considered an "extension of PKK", which could mean then that people who have volunteered to fight among their ranks against ISIS could be counted as terrorists. Same could be applied to political groups who organize solidarity events or what-ever for Syrian Kurds. Would this mean that if (or rather, when) Turkey bombs Kurds the next time and people mobilize to protest against it, they too will be labeled as "individuals linked to terrorist organisations"?
(Though, I think the biggest concession made was that Turkey was written as Türkiye, not Turkey, in the memorandum.)
Post by: Strongpoint on June 30, 2022, 01:22:52 am
Has there yet been any news on how they've been treated while being captive? Haven't been following news so much today.
Not yet, I expect some interviews with them in the coming days. On the first photos and videos they don't look too bad (other than that many of them are amputees but those are combat injuries.)
Post by: Strongpoint on June 30, 2022, 11:45:31 am
Russians are like the antagonist of "It" - Monsters AND clowns
Post by: Starver on June 30, 2022, 11:57:02 am
(Either "there are Nazi snakes" or "protecting the snakes from Nazis", I imagine the general flavour...)
Post by: hector13 on June 30, 2022, 12:43:01 pm
It’s apparently step 1 of a thousand before Unraine can get grain out of its ports.
Post by: Starver on June 30, 2022, 03:17:46 pm
Post by: King Zultan on July 01, 2022, 02:14:53 am
Did anyone say what the mission even was?I wonder how you'd figure out which snakes are nazis and which ones were not.
(Either "there are Nazi snakes" or "protecting the snakes from Nazis", I imagine the general flavour...)
Post by: Strongpoint on July 01, 2022, 02:32:34 am
Few missiles in Odesa residential area in early morning, 18 people reported murdered (and rising). Yet another clear terrorist attack aimed to kill random civilians. One needs to be naive to assume that those are accidents\misses. They always choose a perfect time to maximize civilian casualties. Early morning for residental buildings, midday for the shopping mall, amidst evacuation for Kramatorsk railway station
Post by: hector13 on July 01, 2022, 09:44:52 am
Did anyone say what the mission even was?I wonder how you'd figure out which snakes are nazis and which ones were not.
(Either "there are Nazi snakes" or "protecting the snakes from Nazis", I imagine the general flavour...)
Battlestar Ricklactica just so happens to be my favourite Rick and Morty episode.
Post by: brewer bob on July 01, 2022, 10:42:37 am
One needs to be naive to assume that those are accidents\misses.
Yeah, it should be clear by now that Russia is entirely capable of murdering civilians on purpose. I'm not buying for one second that these were accidents or misses.
Post by: heydude6 on July 01, 2022, 12:28:16 pm
I imagine only the most vile of Putinists trying to find a justification for Russia to do this.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 02, 2022, 12:04:48 pm
__________
As I expected... Destabilization of Central Asia begins. One of the main factors of that is an obvious weakness of Russian Army that was a stabilizing factor in the region.
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 03, 2022, 01:42:34 pm
Post by: King Zultan on July 04, 2022, 02:11:37 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 04, 2022, 04:43:09 am
To be fair central Asia has always been a cup perched perilously on the edge of a tableRussia is currently in the ~I'm a neko uWu phase.
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 04, 2022, 09:15:49 am
owo Nato please don't bully uwu~~ rawr pounces on crimea from across azov seaTo be fair central Asia has always been a cup perched perilously on the edge of a tableRussia is currently in the ~I'm a neko uWu phase.
Post by: MaxTheFox on July 04, 2022, 10:48:47 am
(https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/340/531/04c.gif)owo Nato please don't bully uwu~~ rawr pounces on crimea from across azov seaTo be fair central Asia has always been a cup perched perilously on the edge of a tableRussia is currently in the ~I'm a neko uWu phase.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 04, 2022, 12:22:55 pm
I expect to have few relatively calm weeks and then Russia will amass a new large force to achieve a single important goal. Most likely, it will be a very bloody advance on Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. But another direction is also possible.
Among the good news, HIMARSes (American-produced reactive artillery) do their job and Russian ammo\fuel depots spontaneously explode every day.
Post by: Lord Shonus on July 04, 2022, 08:44:05 pm
On the other side, the latest packages announced by Biden are quite substantial. To the point that it is heavily implied that the biggest delays on some of the promises will be that they have to be manufactured first.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 04, 2022, 11:32:49 pm
Post by: King Zultan on July 05, 2022, 01:50:04 am
Post by: Strongpoint on July 05, 2022, 09:53:36 am
Sounds like we're getting to the point where we can just Ctrl Alt Del Russia's entire army.Sadly, they have stockpiles for many years of such war. The same goes for cannon fodder.
Also, Americans don't allow us to use their toys against targets on Russian territory.
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 05, 2022, 10:43:17 am
Sounds like we're getting to the point where we can just Ctrl Alt Del Russia's entire army.Recent news suggests the Russians have finally started to set up a unified command (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/5/ukraine-russia-live-news-kyiv-prepares-for-donetsk-battles-liveblog) and as a result their combat effectiveness has increased, the UK Ministry of Defence claims. It is to be expected; it is one thing to be surprised by your own ill-preparedness, it's another thing to still be ill-prepared months after you learned painful lessons
Post by: Starver on July 05, 2022, 11:37:28 am
On ground-war alone (supported by conventional air and sea) I think they are a broken force, mostly, concentrating what they can spare of what still works on the current limited fronts. In a pre-nuclear time, they'd be considered a sitting-duck for any attack the West would care to launch.
In the attitude of an even earlier age (before a couple of World Wars greatly reduced the territorialising and appropriation that always used to happen when armies moved across the continents) Russia might well have been losing actual land, various exclaves (Kaliningrad, probably, just because it is potentially annoying to the neighbours) and other fringes[3], possibly big chunks, perhaps 'persuade' the likes of Belorussia to switch allegience. - But that's an unfashionable attitude to take, these days[4].
(Yeah, as ninjaed, they would also have been necessarily starting with the better unification of top-end control. But I still think they'd have been found lacking - if not so much - applying one of those to the attempt at the hydra-attack that they thought they'd be able to sustain.)
[1] Not helped by the use of such power, by those who should have known what they had available. The obvious initial tactic was an attack-in-breadth that was supposed to accomplish a combination of decapitating, disemboweling and also pulling the rug from under the feet of what remained of the still-twitching corpse. It failed for any number of reasons of over-reach and/or under-estimation. Had the attack been more to do what they are now currently doing[2] and 'properly established the "legitimacy" of the breakaway states', on a more limited front, they possibly could have achieved that aim before the world blinked. Forced Ukraine's government to suck it up as they chose the line they'd pull up at, not so obviously slowed, even by the existing Donbas defensive lines, and hidden the losses they inevitably took in getting there. Instead of trying a massively-multi-clawed pincer-movement that (it turns out) they were totally unable to pull off, losing a lot of their very few elite units in silly ways and bogging down (or worse) their pseudo-conscripts that someone should have known were just not properly prepared and/or motivated.
[2] Not sure if the land-bridge to the Crimea would have been a useful or necessary part of this, given how much difficulty it was to actually accomplish in our reality. Crimea is important as a naval asset and (minimally, given the proximity of much more native-Russia) as an Unsinkable Aircraft Carrier, but it doesn't help 'rationalise' the territory to create a corridor (in hindsight) when established post-2014 sea and bridge links can ensure that it's not particularly vulnerable under current circumstances.
[3] Any bits that looked attractive enough. To be (over?)reached for in return.
[4] Even if it might appear to have inspired US foreign policy a bit (and Israel, if that's not just a case of circumstancial necessity), it's more like the holdouts of Russia and China and their various client-states who seem to actually still want to (re)build their empires, by various means. Of course, righting "past wrongs" is a tricky motivation, given you can pick-and-choose a golden age that clashes with someone else's alternate vision of "when things were right". Or currently are.
Post by: EuchreJack on July 05, 2022, 11:31:27 pm
Sounds like we're getting to the point where we can just Ctrl Alt Del Russia's entire army.Recent news suggests the Russians have finally started to set up a unified command (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/5/ukraine-russia-live-news-kyiv-prepares-for-donetsk-battles-liveblog) and as a result their combat effectiveness has increased, the UK Ministry of Defence claims. It is to be expected; it is one thing to be surprised by your own ill-preparedness, it's another thing to still be ill-prepared months after you learned painful lessons
Hopefully, that just means the Russians are putting all their Generals in the same spot on Ukraine soil. One dead General a month isn't enough.
Post by: King Zultan on July 06, 2022, 01:28:10 am
Recent news suggests the Russians have finally started to set up a unified command (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/7/5/ukraine-russia-live-news-kyiv-prepares-for-donetsk-battles-liveblog) and as a result their combat effectiveness has increased, the UK Ministry of Defence claims.Holy crap it has taken them this long to do that, I mean with how long it took them to do this it's a wonder how they manage to do anything.
Hopefully, that just means the Russians are putting all their Generals in the same spot on Ukraine soil. One dead General a month isn't enough.But with every dead general leads us closer to alcohol poisoning from the take a drink for every dead general game.
Post by: scriver on July 06, 2022, 08:46:24 am
[3] Any bits that looked attractive enough. To be (over?)reached for in return.
Before those, there's still bits of Russia that belongs to their neighbours, like Karelia.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 07, 2022, 10:42:59 am
[3] Any bits that looked attractive enough. To be (over?)reached for in return.
Before those, there's still bits of Russia that belongs to their neighbours, like Karelia.
I am curious how many % of Finns would actually vote to get Karelia back. I suspect this number is in single digits.
Post by: scriver on July 07, 2022, 10:53:11 am
Post by: Strongpoint on July 07, 2022, 02:56:30 pm
According to this unsourced wikipedia claim (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karelian_question#Polls_and_popular_opinion) it's roughly a third.
I am surprised. It is way more than I expected. Getting a large Russian minority and a very underdeveloped region is a questionable desire.
Post by: Grim Portent on July 07, 2022, 03:16:06 pm
According to this unsourced wikipedia claim (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karelian_question#Polls_and_popular_opinion) it's roughly a third.
I am surprised. It is way more than I expected. Getting a large Russian minority and a very underdeveloped region is a questionable desire.
They've probably not thought about the negatives or the practicalities much. Tends to be the thing with people who want land for historical reasons in my experience.
Post by: EuchreJack on July 07, 2022, 04:03:14 pm
According to this unsourced wikipedia claim (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karelian_question#Polls_and_popular_opinion) it's roughly a third.
I am surprised. It is way more than I expected. Getting a large Russian minority and a very underdeveloped region is a questionable desire.
They've probably not thought about the negatives or the practicalities much. Tends to be the thing with people who want land for historical reasons in my experience.
It's LAND. They're not making any more of it!
Post by: Grim Portent on July 07, 2022, 04:17:23 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on July 07, 2022, 04:20:09 pm
Relevant (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPX-mW4l1rU)
Post by: Grim Portent on July 07, 2022, 04:53:14 pm
Post by: King Zultan on July 08, 2022, 01:51:18 am
Post by: scriver on July 08, 2022, 04:54:43 am
According to this unsourced wikipedia claim (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karelian_question#Polls_and_popular_opinion) it's roughly a third.
I am surprised. It is way more than I expected. Getting a large Russian minority and a very underdeveloped region is a questionable desire.
They probably want the land returned to the descendants of the people who owned it that was driven away, and that Russia can keep the Russians.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 15, 2022, 05:26:45 am
And remember that tens of thousands of Ukrainians, both soldiers and civilians, are in Russian captivity. The difference is that should they die, no one will bother announcing anything
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 15, 2022, 01:51:28 pm
"DNR" reports that a captured British citizen, Paul Urey, died "due to illness and stress" (Read: didn't survive tortures). He wasn't even a combatant...Poor chaps. This one wasn't even a combatant and they killed him anyways
And remember that tens of thousands of Ukrainians, both soldiers and civilians, are in Russian captivity. The difference is that should they die, no one will bother announcing anything
Post by: King Zultan on July 16, 2022, 02:52:55 am
Post by: Starver on July 16, 2022, 06:48:39 am
Can't recall the details. Likely to be not as spectactular as claimed, nor meaningless as counter-claimed.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 16, 2022, 06:55:33 am
Likely, a new Russian major offensive will start on the Donbas front soon.
Post by: brewer bob on July 16, 2022, 08:53:44 am
I haven't payed attention to news in quite a while and I have a question, have any more generals died?
There's been some news about dead generals, but it could've been just about the previously dead ones. Can't remember.
Also, sort of related, there was this kind of meme (or whatever) circulating on teh interwebs:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Starver on July 16, 2022, 09:04:01 am
From other reports, the missiles coming the other way seem largely civilian-targetted (or untargetted except for "in the general vicinity of something nebulously military"). A spacecraft (satellite, not rocket?) factory got hit, but I don't think that can be considered legitimate and was probably just accidental/careless/incidental to whatever 'legitimate' targetting they would claim, because it was a large building.
Though that was probably an air-launched missile (safely from far from any air-defences, even across the borders), many incoming missiles seem to be sub-launched from the Black Sea. Operationally, probably makes sense. Isolates the launch platform and crew from both retaliation and any chance of hearing that their commanded targets have been largely civilian in nature (blissfully unaware of any social-media chatter, if you're isolated in a submerged tincan) but I'm wondering what equally stealthy efforts are being made to disrupt their activities out beyond any national/notional territorial limits.
If there's not a Ukrainean-ally's sub or three in the Black Sea, I would be surprised. Even given the risks concerned (and the unliklihood of it ever turning into a U-863/HMS Venturer encounter... the only fully submerged successful sub-on-sub encounter publically known from non-fiction), there'd be some benefits from keeping close tabs, if only in advance of any hotting up of the situation where resupply schedules and opportunities are more precisely observed.
[1] Not sure from which news-site I heard/read what I thought I had. The above was clearly dated after I was forced to delete the BBC News App, so when I half-recall it being a web-page I rather assumed it was theirs that I was now looking at instead, but I have a few others on other tabs (those that don't deluge me with ads/popups).
Post by: Lord Shonus on July 16, 2022, 05:35:29 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on July 17, 2022, 04:21:09 am
Ukraine: Then why are you shooting less?
Russia: We've suddenly decided to Go Green and not contribute as much Ammunition waste to our future Country.
Ukraine: ::)
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 17, 2022, 07:25:58 am
Post by: King Zultan on July 18, 2022, 03:30:44 am
Post by: Quarque on July 20, 2022, 04:43:01 pm
Quote
Lavrov said Russia might need to push even deeper if the West, out of "impotent rage" or desire to aggravate the situation further, kept pumping Ukraine with long-range weapons such as the U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).(source: Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/lavrov-says-russias-objectives-ukraine-now-go-beyond-donbas-2022-07-20/))
"That means the geographical tasks will extend still further from the current line," he said.
Russia could not allow Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy "or whoever replaces him" to threaten its territory or that of the DPR and LPR with the longer-range systems, he said - referring casually, and without any evidence, to the possibility that the Ukrainian leader might not remain in power.
Reminds me of the pro-gun argument of Ali G.: "it is one of the most basic human rights to attack those who are trying to defend themselves".
Post by: Starver on July 20, 2022, 06:11:54 pm
Post by: brewer bob on July 20, 2022, 07:03:00 pm
When I saw about that, my first thought was about the mental gymnastics involved.
Putin and his friends seem to be experts in this particular form of gymnastics.
Post by: King Zultan on July 21, 2022, 01:54:35 am
I heard they won gold for that in the last Olympics.When I saw about that, my first thought was about the mental gymnastics involved.
Putin and his friends seem to be experts in this particular form of gymnastics.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 21, 2022, 02:59:19 am
"Ukraine, please, please, please, agree to let us keep what we already captured and stop fighting! We can't grab much more land (only throw empty threats) and are terrified be an upcoming counteroffensive."
Russia desperately needs some exit. They dream of any kind of de-escalation but it goes other direction. NATO countries give more and more toys, more and more Ukrainians learn how to fight, Ukrainian morale is still high, pro-Russians on occupied territories are starting to see that Russia can't provide decent security and won't rebuild anything, etc.
Even if the upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive will be unsuccessful (or will never properly start), the war is increasingly unwinnable for Russia. The only possible victory is some kind of ceasefire.
Post by: Lord Shonus on July 21, 2022, 05:55:06 am
Post by: Great Order on July 21, 2022, 08:04:04 am
Post by: Strongpoint on July 21, 2022, 08:08:35 am
In addition to more ammo depots, Ukraine reportedly blasted a state-of-the-art Russian radar system (so new it doesn't even have a Wikipedia page as far as I can tell) that was serving as the main air search radar for the Kherson region. That likely signals an aggressive air campaign at the least, and may signal the start of a major counteroffensive.
And also a major bridge near Kherson is being methodically destroyed by the Ukrainian army. Nice bridge... but it will be destroyed by retreating Russians anyway.
Also, Russians are using Zaporizhya nuclear plant as their artillery position and ammo depot bringing more and more there and placing it closer and closer to reactors... Well, it is... a creative tactical decision, High Mobility Anti-Russian System won't hit there but actual accidents do happen. Chernobyl will be a joke compared to this.
Quote
Seems Ukraine's entire thing here has been to bleed the Russian forces white rather than actually commit to any proper offensive moves, outside of securing the country in the early days. Makes me wonder at what point there's going to be a counteroffensive, or if this is just Ukraine hoping to fend them off long enough that they can survive without being totally annexed because Russia's offensive capabilities are fucked.
Since early May, it was an open secret that Ukraine is preparing for a major counteroffensive in late July or August. Will it actually start? - Who knows. But preparations are evident.
Post by: Lord Shonus on July 21, 2022, 09:51:11 am
The bridge near Kherson that Strongpoint mentions is a good example. If they can bring it down, a huge part of the occupier's lifeline goes into the river with it, and it is much easier to fight starving people that are out of ammo.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 22, 2022, 12:38:23 pm
Russia and Ukraine reached an agreement Friday with the United Nations and Turkey to reopen Ukraine's seaports and guarantee safe passage for the ships carrying Ukrainian grain in the Black Sea.
Russia got what it wanted... And it sucks...
Post by: Telgin on July 22, 2022, 01:02:56 pm
Post by: Grim Portent on July 22, 2022, 01:14:33 pm
What did Russia get out of it? It's probably worth it if it avoids starvation in nearby countries.
I see two things that benefit Russia in this matter.
1) The Russians can sell grain they stole from occupied parts of Ukraine via sea now, which is much more practical for them.
2) This normalises the current state of affairs, which takes political pressure off of Russia.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 22, 2022, 01:35:16 pm
Also, Ukraine will demine its ports, giving Russians some good opportunities for amphibious landings.
Also, ANY agreement with Russia* is bad by definition. Russia will break any agreement at any moment they will find it beneficial for them with no consequences whatsoever. While for Ukraine it is a real agreement.
*I also dislike how our diplomats think that Ukrainians are idiots. "We have no agreement with Russia! We have an agreement with Turkey and UN! It just happens that Russia has its own agreement with Turkey and UN!"
Post by: hector13 on July 22, 2022, 01:37:14 pm
But yeah, Ukraine and Russia signed separate and identical agreements. There’s no means to punish Russia if they break the agreements though, beyond angry finger-wagging in the international community.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 22, 2022, 02:56:05 pm
Ukraine won’t remove mines from their ports, but they will guide vessels through minefields.
Ukraine won't remove all mines (this would be insanity), but some will be removed to create safe paths to guide civilian vessels through
Post by: brewer bob on July 22, 2022, 03:45:20 pm
There’s no means to punish Russia if they break the agreements though, beyond angry finger-wagging in the international community.
Russia is like a overgrown schoolyard bully who never forgets to mention how tragic total war would be for humanity and pats the nuclear bomb in their pocket.
It really feels like there's some angry teenagers of the worst kind running that country.
Post by: Lord Shonus on July 22, 2022, 10:41:27 pm
Also, Ukraine will demine its ports, giving Russians some good opportunities for amphibious landings.
An opposed amphibious landing was among the most difficult military operations conducted in WWII, which is why the largest naval armada in history still relied heavily on misdirection (successful, the bulk of the German mobile forces were at Calais on June 6, 1944) to drive as many enemy forces somewhere else as possible.
It is far harder now. Added to the advantages of the defeneder are long-range shipkiller missiles such as the Neptune and Harpoon systems that Ukraine has already killed major fleet assets with, as well as ATGMs that are more than capable of turning a landing boat or hovercraft into a blood-sacrifice to Posiedon in an instant. Countering that requires massive naval firepower (which Russia may never have had, and certainly doesn't now that Moskva is at the bottom of the sea), overwhelming air superiority (which Russia doesn't have - Ukranian-operated SAM systems and the stubborn air force has made the sky neutral at worst), or complete and total surprise (Which Russia doesn't have because Uncle Sam is whispering Russia's every move to Ukraine's ears).
An amphibious assault sounds scary, but if Russia ever tried it the odds are overwhelming that the only result would be the annihilation of Russian naval infantry in the region, and possibly the end of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea.
This agreement is no threat to Ukraine. And it goes a long way toward blunting one of Russia's few remaining soft-power weapons - if that grain gets where it is going, Russia won't be able to point at starvation in the Middle East and Africa and blame it on Ukraine.
In other news, I've seen some reports that Russian troops in the Kherson region have been cut off and are requesting evacuation corridors, which Ukraine has flatly (and correctly) refused.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 23, 2022, 04:10:34 am
edit - ... reportedly killing workers who were loading a grain shipment...
This deal is the most idiotic decision of the Ukrainian government since the beginning of the war but I suspect that they were pressured to do it by our allies and then it is the most idiotic decision of our allies. Russia can now conveniently export their (and "their") grain and it is the only real effect of the agreement. Little to no grain Ukrainian grain will be actually sold via Black Sea and\or transportation costs will be so high that burning it in ports would be more profitable.
Post by: Lord Shonus on July 23, 2022, 06:28:14 am
Post by: King Zultan on July 23, 2022, 06:43:40 am
But wouldn't that mean the Russians could get that info and figure out how to get to the ports?Ukraine won’t remove mines from their ports, but they will guide vessels through minefields.
Ukraine won't remove all mines (this would be insanity), but some will be removed to create safe paths to guide civilian vessels through
But than again I guess this doesn't matter now that they've blown up the port.
Post by: Quarque on July 23, 2022, 06:53:33 am
Russia can now conveniently export their (and "their") grain and it is the only real effect of the agreement. Little to no grain Ukrainian grain will be actually sold via Black Sea and\or transportation costs will be so high that burning it in ports would be more profitable.I was thinking the same as Lord Shonus: doesn't this attack cancel the deal?
edit: according to Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-pledges-more-military-aid-ukraine-peace-seems-far-off-2022-07-22/)the deal is now "at risk" - I guess that is one way to put it..
Post by: Strongpoint on July 23, 2022, 08:03:28 am
But wouldn't that mean the Russians could get that info and figure out how to get to the ports?Ukraine won’t remove mines from their ports, but they will guide vessels through minefields.
Ukraine won't remove all mines (this would be insanity), but some will be removed to create safe paths to guide civilian vessels through
But than again I guess this doesn't matter now that they've blown up the port.
Lightly damaged the port is a more accurate statement. Also, the killed workers I mentioned earlier weren't confirmed by any reputable source
The Secretary-General unequivocally condemns reported strikes today in the Ukrainian port of Odesa.
Yesterday, all parties made clear commitments on the global stage to ensure the safe movement of Ukrainian grain and related products to global markets. These products are desperately needed to address the global food crisis and ease the suffering of millions of people in need around the globe. Full implementation by the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Türkiye is imperative.
Uh no, Russia is unequivocally condemned! They are in trouble, right? Right? (insert the Anakin and Padme meme)
Post by: brewer bob on July 23, 2022, 09:37:19 am
And today morning Russia attacked Odesa port with missiles to celebrate the agreement.
Well that happened quicker than expected.
Surprised of it? No.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 23, 2022, 10:57:07 am
"In our contact with Russia, the Russians told us that they had absolutely nothing to do with this attack, and that they were examining the issue very closely and in detail," Defence Minister Hulusai Akar said in a statement.
_________________
Russia is as hilarious as ever.
Post by: Great Order on July 23, 2022, 12:35:40 pm
Post by: Quarque on July 23, 2022, 02:40:10 pm
Given the state of the Russian military, I'd be unsurprised if it turns out this was actually some idiot that chose to disregard or was unaware of the treaty.Actually I don't think that's likely. From what we hear on the news, the Russian army is overly hierarchical, with lower commanders not having enough agency to be effective. That's a different flavour of incompetence. ;)
Post by: EuchreJack on July 24, 2022, 12:10:28 am
Lieutenant: But sir, we have an agreement with Ukraine on the Port, and our ordered attack predates the agreement.
Major General: Son, we follow orders in my unit. Fire the missiles!
....
But to be honest, I wouldn't doubt that Russian High Command would knowingly and intentionally attack the port that was just demilitarized as part of the agreement, and in fact that could have been the whole point of the agreement. I don't trust Russians.
While it would be incredibly easy to just blame President Biden and move on with my life, politicians are influenced by pressure, and there was a lot of pressure to get the grain flowing regardless of the cost or reliability of Russia. So even if the politicians never expected Russia to honor the agreement, they sorta had no choice but to agree to it.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 24, 2022, 09:01:50 am
If, in February, someone would say me that July frontline will look like this, that I'll keep seeing Ukrainian jets and helicopters flying near my house, that flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet would rest on the bottom, that the Ukrainian economy will kinda keep working, I would say that it is ridiculous optimism.
Still, 100K+ dead Ukrainians (all official data and estimates are absurdly low, 100K is VERY optimistic), hundreds of thousands kidnapped, millions under brutal occupation, millions of refugees... And it is only the beginning.
Post by: Great Order on July 24, 2022, 10:41:44 am
I'm not saying it's likely, but that if there was an international investigation and that was the conclusion, I'd be unsurprised.Given the state of the Russian military, I'd be unsurprised if it turns out this was actually some idiot that chose to disregard or was unaware of the treaty.Actually I don't think that's likely. From what we hear on the news, the Russian army is overly hierarchical, with lower commanders not having enough agency to be effective. That's a different flavour of incompetence. ;)
Post by: Loud Whispers on July 26, 2022, 03:27:59 pm
People doing the bare minimum to avoid being responsible, resulting in catastrophes that they will be held responsible for, like the Russians shooting down their own advanced bomber aircraftGiven the state of the Russian military, I'd be unsurprised if it turns out this was actually some idiot that chose to disregard or was unaware of the treaty.Actually I don't think that's likely. From what we hear on the news, the Russian army is overly hierarchical, with lower commanders not having enough agency to be effective. That's a different flavour of incompetence. ;)
Post by: Strongpoint on July 27, 2022, 10:48:49 pm
This "Forum of Free Nations of Russia" is an interesting development. Few decades too late but better late than never. I don't expect any immediate effects but I can see some leaders growing out of this thing.
Post by: MaxTheFox on July 27, 2022, 11:13:18 pm
Just because I want a free Russia doesn't mean I should want to give a small minority their own states. The Siberian natives are literally irrelevant outside of Tatarstan and Tuva. They should have equal rights and nothing more.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 28, 2022, 12:33:13 am
Quote
As an ethnic Russian, I have nothing to gain and a lot to lose from Tomsk gaining independence.
Why, why are you so sure of that? Let's look at this from a practical standpoint. Tomsk region is too small (well... It is around the size of Poland but...) to go independent alone. Let's look at a more realistic independent state, large chunk of middle Russia\Western Siberia spanning from the Arctic (giving access to the sea) to Kazakhstan, China and Mongolia.
This will be a country that is rich in natural resources (including oil and gas) and quite low population. Being independent from Moscow, all taxes and profits from natural resources will stay there. Rest of Russia will need to actually pay for this resources to keep their factories running instead of taking it away for free and giving some meager federal funding in return. Yes, this new country will need to pay for the transportation of oil and gas through new countries but those are minor costs. Oil and gas flow can also be redirected to China (China will happily help building pipes if needed)
If this state will keep some nukes, it will be absolutely safe from any invasion while having no need to keep a huge army. Also, there will be no need to pay for Pacific\Baltic\Black Sea Navy or for military operations in some Middle Eastern countries.
Direct trade (without caring about Moscow's political and economical interests) with the economical powerhouse of China will be far more beneficial for local people, too. And sweet customs money will go to the locals, not to Moscow. And locals will also get money for goods transiting through their territory from China to Moscow.
Also, let's not forget a minor convenience that when Moscow will choose to start a new war, locals won't need to go and die in places 1000s km away from their home...
Your life would be way better in such a hypothetical country. Barring some minor inconveniences like needing to cross the border to visit the warm beaches of Sochi
PS.
Quote
Just because I want a free Russia doesn't mean I should want to give a small minority their own states. The Siberian natives are literally irrelevant outside of Tatarstan and Tuva. They should have equal rights and nothing more.
Tiny countries are often impractical, but small minorities of indigenous people should have way more than equal rights. They need support for their culture, invaluable to humanity, to survive.
Post by: MaxTheFox on July 28, 2022, 01:03:21 am
2. I don't trust China at all, why would I want to be even more dependent on them, they will make us even more of a puppet. The CCP is an insidious bunch.
3. Naive to think whoever divides Russia up (somehow, despite the nukes) will let any Russian state keep any nukes.
4. We already have a lot of Chinese stuff. I don't want to give China even more influence because they will subvert any new government.
5. I can concede the point about war, that is indeed a benefit.
I'd probably just go "oh cool now I can fairly painlessly leave for Europe" if I didn't already by then.
As for natives, fair enough. I'd even be fine with affirmative action if it doesn't involve territorial concessions.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 28, 2022, 01:57:37 am
2. Not trusting China is good but it is not like former USSR Central Asian republics got consumed into China.
3. All you need is an adequate leadership that won't give those away
4. Yes, but do you get a fair share of customs profits from those goods or Moscow take the lion share?
For me, It is incredible that someone living in a colony full of natural resources and being literally robbed, says that independence would be a bad thing economically. I can see military reasons "we won't be able to protect ourselves" or some "cultural unity" or "attempt will be unsuccessful" or even "local elites will be even worse" but - "you know, the metropole supplies us with glass beads no one but them can provide those." is an unbelievable line of thought.
Post by: MaxTheFox on July 28, 2022, 02:25:38 am
1. You rely on goods and services you BUY from the European part of Russia. In an independent state, you can continue to do the same or buy all that from someone else enjoying the benefit of being able to choose. Transition period may be somewhat rough but really, all you need to do is to elect adequate leadership and keep them in check. And having few people help prosperity not harm it. You don't need many workers to extract natural resources with modern technologies.1. Those services are cheaper than buying those services from... who? Russia again? China? Fucking Mongolia?
2. Not trusting China is good but it is not like former USSR Central Asian republics got consumed into China.
3. All you need is an adequate leadership that won't give those away
4. Yes, but do you get a fair share of customs profits from those goods or Moscow take the lion share?
For me, It is incredible that someone living in a colony full of natural resources and being literally robbed, says that independence would be a bad thing economically. I can see military reasons "we won't be able to protect ourselves" or some "cultural unity" or "attempt will be unsuccessful" or even "local elites will be even worse" but - "you know, the metropole supplies us with glass beads no one but them can provide those." is an unbelievable line of thought.
2. Except they are falling udner heavy Chinese influence now. Kyrgyzstan since a while ago and now Kazakhstan.
3. And brave the sanctions that would again fall upon us? No thanks.
4. Well honestly as far as I know it's not a large share that Moscow takes.
5. You don't live here, you wouldn't know. No, I'm not brainwashed as you will undoubtedly accuse me of being, I barely even look at state-owned media and haven't in years. Having a foreigner moralize to me, a Siberian, that the problem is not just the government's authoritarianism but rather that Siberia is a "colony" is just ::)
Post by: Strongpoint on July 28, 2022, 02:53:35 am
Budget of Tomsk: ~20 billion rubles, population ~0.5M
So, Moscow is 24 larger and... has 180 times larger budget.
If we will compare towns\villages of the Moscow region and the Tomsk region - the difference will be even worse.
Is it Moscow that has oil, gas, coal and iron ore nearby?
_________________
Look at the USA. Do you know which state has the highest state expenditure per capita? It is Alaska. Because you know... they have many resources and low population (like Tomsk) and they are not a colony (unlike Tomsk.)
I don't care where you live. You are denying evident reality. You are living in a colony. Your money is stolen. And not only by corrupt politicians but by millions of citizens of Russia from other regions. Residents of Moscow live much better than residents of Tomsk because they use your resources, not because they are more hard-working or have some fair advantages. You are exploited.
Post by: MaxTheFox on July 28, 2022, 03:15:30 am
Fuck, I'd say autonomy benefits us way more than deadass independence. I never said no reforms are needed as you seem to be implying. We lack viability as an independent nation. Alaska is autonomous, but not independent. I'd prefer that kind of federalization, TBH.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 28, 2022, 03:54:15 am
Quote
Fuck, I'd say autonomy benefits us way more than deadass independence. I never said no reforms are needed as you seem to be implying. We lack viability as an independent nation. Alaska is autonomous, but not independent. I'd prefer that kind of federalization, TBH.
Now that makes sense. Becoming independent is not the only way to stop being a colony. Pushing for a fair system and decentralization is also a viable way to fix this. Actual decentralization into a de facto federation will likely be more economically viable than independence. But please stop pretending that Moscow doesn't treat Tomsk and all of Asian Russia as a colony. It absolutely does.
Saying that Western Syberia is lacking viability as an independent nation is just wrong. With minimal competency of elected officials, democratic independent Western Syberia will prosper. Even mildly authoritarian independent Western Syberia will prosper.
Post by: MaxTheFox on July 28, 2022, 04:14:07 am
Post by: hector13 on July 28, 2022, 09:36:15 am
Post by: Strongpoint on July 28, 2022, 11:59:37 am
However, the resulting discussion indicates that they have a long way to go when even anti-Putin opposition living in the exploited middle of Russian nowhere believe that mother Russia must stay intact
Post by: Strongpoint on July 28, 2022, 05:09:52 pm
And some "liberal" Russians truly believe that it will be like "we'll remove Putin (somehow) and we'll be friends again. Yay!"
Post by: brewer bob on July 28, 2022, 05:37:23 pm
a video on which Russians castrate a Ukrainian POW. Creature doing this is already identified
So, they're pretty much on the same level (or worse) as ISIL/Daesh?
some "liberal" Russians truly believe that it will be like "we'll remove Putin (somehow) and we'll be friends again. Yay!"
Yeah, it'll probably take decades to fix relations after all this shit.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 28, 2022, 06:15:07 pm
Do you know what is even worse? Russian social networks are full of glorifying of this guy and "funny and humane" jokes like this:
Spoiler: a photoshopped screenshot from the video with that monster (click to show/hide)
Understand that this video is just something that went public. Castrations and other forms of mutilations are common among Ukrainian POWs. I also heard a story that Russian doctors infected a group of Ukrainian POWs with Hepatitis C before a prisoner exchange and I tend to trust the source
PS. Do not seek the video, do not watch it. SERIOUSLY, DON'T. Some screenshots I glanced over are enough to damage your sanity.
Post by: EuchreJack on July 28, 2022, 07:38:29 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on July 28, 2022, 07:47:43 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on July 28, 2022, 11:29:54 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on July 29, 2022, 12:30:32 am
My answer is... a major rewrite of Russian history textbooks and active propaganda of a more accurate version of history in media and art. And it is something that won't happen.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 29, 2022, 01:55:06 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 29, 2022, 02:08:26 am
Post by: Strongpoint on July 29, 2022, 02:24:58 am
A POW camp in artillery range?
It is like 30km away from the frontline, so yeah, more than close enough for modern artillery, especially MLRSes. But knowing Russians and their attention to detail we may find that it was shelled with something like 10KM max range
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 29, 2022, 03:30:36 am
Post by: Strongpoint on July 29, 2022, 03:35:52 am
But why would anyone put a POW camp that close to the frontline? Seems like bad practice.
Why? No offensive can liberate the camp quickly enough to prevent Russians from executing all of them in time.
Post by: Il Palazzo on July 29, 2022, 04:00:02 am
Post by: Lidku on July 29, 2022, 04:41:13 am
PS. Do not seek the video, do not watch it. SERIOUSLY, DON'T. Some screenshots I glanced over are enough to damage your sanity.
Damn, I literally had seen the video as soon as it dropped on reddit. Really wish I hadn't.
The guy who did the act is apparently a part of one of the Asian minorities in Russia, a Kalmykian. I wonder why he did this. Maybe in somesort of maligned effort to prove himself to his fellow Russian soldiers/wider Russia society?
Post by: King Zultan on July 29, 2022, 04:55:33 am
Post by: Starver on July 29, 2022, 05:16:01 am
Post by: Strongpoint on July 29, 2022, 05:22:42 am
And more horrible news. "DNR" sources report that "the Ukrainian army shelled POW camp to kill witnesses of their crimes killing ~50 POWs", while this kind of mistake is remotely possible I can bet that this is just a "creative" way to kill POWs
It is confirmed now...
Surrendering to Russians is a worse option than saving the last bullet for yourself. You will be tortured and then killed anyways.
Post by: MaxTheFox on July 29, 2022, 07:24:02 am
Because a lot of Kalmyks are Russified since Soviet times. Unfortunately.PS. Do not seek the video, do not watch it. SERIOUSLY, DON'T. Some screenshots I glanced over are enough to damage your sanity.
Damn, I literally had seen the video as soon as it dropped on reddit. Really wish I hadn't.
The guy who did the act is apparently a part of one of the Asian minorities in Russia, a Kalmykian. I wonder why he did this. Maybe in somesort of maligned effort to prove himself to his fellow Russian soldiers/wider Russia society?
It made me think, what would I require to believe that some new Russia is actually, honestly, really trying to move away from the genocidal and imperialistic mentality?For the record, I would. I would also physically repress the far-right. The Nazi gangs would be arrested and detained indefinitely, in intentionally terrible conditions. Unfortunately, I couldn't do that to United Russia as it's too big. But I would expose absolutely all of the dirty shit they did on state TV, and even forge a few documents to add to that. Sweet revenge.
My answer is... a major rewrite of Russian history textbooks and active propaganda of a more accurate version of history in media and art. And it is something that won't happen.
Post by: Strongpoint on July 29, 2022, 09:40:29 pm
. But knowing Russians and their attention to detail we may find that it was shelled with something like 10KM max range
I gave them too much credit. Looks like they just blew up the barracks from within and brought some rusty missile fragments from elsewhere as proof.
Also, look at this wonderful twit from the Russian embassy in London - https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/1553093117712162828
Post by: heydude6 on July 31, 2022, 11:26:56 am
Or is that the POW camp?
Post by: Strongpoint on July 31, 2022, 11:54:07 am
Are you really telling me that Russia blew up their own barracks?
Or is that the POW camp?
It is a POW camp. They executed 50+ Ukrainian POWs, mostly from the Azov regiment.
Of course, there are very good reasons to suspect that they were dead even before it was blown up.
Here is a quite informative Twitter thread - https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1553346547739410432
Post by: Strongpoint on July 31, 2022, 12:42:02 pm
Vladimir Djukanovic, an MP in Serbia’s National Assembly from the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), wrote on Twitter that he believes Serbia might be forced to engage in the “denazification” of the Balkans
Someone should explain Serbs that, unlike Russians, they have no nukes and acting like Russia is a very unwise idea.
Post by: Starver on July 31, 2022, 02:10:49 pm
Post by: heydude6 on July 31, 2022, 02:38:53 pm
Are you really telling me that Russia blew up their own barracks?
Or is that the POW camp?
It is a POW camp. They executed 50+ Ukrainian POWs, mostly from the Azov regiment.
Of course, there are very good reasons to suspect that they were dead even before it was blown up.
Here is a quite informative Twitter thread - https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1553346547739410432
Here's a link to a public uncensored version if you don't have a twitter account https://nitter.it/noclador/status/1553346547739410432 (https://nitter.it/noclador/status/1553346547739410432)
Post by: Random_Dragon on July 31, 2022, 03:23:36 pm
Side note since this is the thread for responses, given Putin's tactic for his plan of Ukranian genocide, blowing up their own concentration camp or whatever they planned to use that place for to make a false-flag claim seems...put mildly, immensely idiotic of them. :v
Post by: Lord Shonus on July 31, 2022, 07:05:31 pm
Not directly Ukraine-related, but Serbia is a de-facto Russian ally so...
Vladimir Djukanovic, an MP in Serbia’s National Assembly from the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), wrote on Twitter that he believes Serbia might be forced to engage in the “denazification” of the Balkans
Someone should explain Serbs that, unlike Russians, they have no nukes and acting like Russia is a very unwise idea.
It appears that Djukanovic is the party's designated idiot and has a history of blabbering on about stupid shit with nothing happening in the end.
As for the shooting incident, it is looking like it was Bosnians Serbs from a fairly small semi-insurrectionist group shooting at Bosnian Bonsians, with Serbian Serbs being completely uninvolved. NATO peacekeepers are already in the process of deescalating the situation.
Which makes sense. If they got into a shooting fight with NATO peacekeepers again, Serbia's military might last five minutes. Might.
Post by: KittyTac on July 31, 2022, 09:44:20 pm
OK nevermind I guess lol.
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 01, 2022, 06:37:19 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 01, 2022, 08:47:05 am
Post by: King Zultan on August 02, 2022, 03:11:39 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 03, 2022, 12:41:29 am
The only problem is Serbian imperialism and revanchism. Luckily, Serbs have no ability to mess with NATO
Post by: Strongpoint on August 04, 2022, 05:49:50 am
Post by: Starver on August 04, 2022, 08:03:02 am
Post by: EuchreJack on August 04, 2022, 11:37:43 am
Post by: Starver on August 04, 2022, 12:59:17 pm
But activism-led agenda lends itself to an uneven assessment of what's wrong in the world that needs careful handling. Just as a suppressed minority deep in the heart of some deliberately inaccessible region of a totalitarian country can benefit (relatively!) from the news being smuggled out into the wider world, to pressure the inarguably terrible government that sanctions the suppression, the same 'leaks' can be engineered by a trouble-stirring party to alter the prominence of issues to try to be what-about-ist and thus downgrade more egregious crimes/institutionalising just a short hop over a fence.
Better to have them, than not, but I don't know how good their internal governance is, or how they peer review against political pressures both overt and covert.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 04, 2022, 02:02:29 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 04, 2022, 02:57:15 pm
I never liked the Amnesty International, they always tend to downplay human rights violations in China\Russia\Saudi Arabia\etc and blow out of proportion human rights violations in democratic countries, creating an illusion that the difference between those isn't that largeIt makes more sense to be vocal about violations in places where being vocal can actually change anything.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 04, 2022, 03:03:14 pm
Instead Amnesty International and the like create a situation of "We have our problems, they have their problems. Peace"
Post by: nenjin on August 04, 2022, 03:04:53 pm
I never liked the Amnesty International, they always tend to downplay human rights violations in China\Russia\Saudi Arabia\etc and blow out of proportion human rights violations in democratic countries, creating an illusion that the difference between those isn't that largeIt makes more sense to be vocal about violations in places where being vocal can actually change anything.
Or being less vocal about places that provide funding.....
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 04, 2022, 03:08:11 pm
doing business with those countries is... somewhat... IMMORALHey, come now. Be realistic. Business is sacred.
Post by: brewer bob on August 04, 2022, 04:18:48 pm
I'll still comment on this:
they always tend to downplay human rights violations in China\Russia\Saudi Arabia\etc and blow out of proportion human rights violations in democratic countries, creating an illusion that the difference between those isn't that large
That statement is not entirely true.
The majority of Amnesty's yearly reports are about human rights violations in China, Myanmar, Saudi Arabia and such. Sure, their press releases (and what the media decides to pick up from them) may often concentrate on human rights violations in democratic countries. But like Il Palazzo said, people in democratic countries are more likely to do something about it. And, as far as I know, they are also vocal about the human rights violations in places where things are much worse, but it has a much smaller impact there.
That said, I'm not a big fan of Amnesty (or any other large NGO) and there's a lot to criticize them for. They're not saints and there's a lot of questionable stuff in their past.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 05, 2022, 11:46:01 am
Quote
The majority of Amnesty's yearly reports are about human rights violations in China, Myanmar, Saudi Arabia and such.
I never said that they don't report human rights violations in non-democratic nations. I said that they downplay them.
Their reports make them look less severe than they really are.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 05, 2022, 01:20:18 pm
Arguably, more oppressive governments can oppress the truth better, so it's harder to document their human rights violations.QuoteThe majority of Amnesty's yearly reports are about human rights violations in China, Myanmar, Saudi Arabia and such.
I never said that they don't report human rights violations in non-democratic nations. I said that they downplay them.
Their reports make them look less severe than they really are.
So if you are looking for the same proof in China as in the United States, the US looks worse because it's more open and better documented.
NGOs also suffer from the problem that they are guests in other countries, and only allowed into the country with that country's permission. This allows countries to mislead the NGO, for example Nazi Germany got good remarks from the Red Cross because the Germans staged what the Red Cross would see.
Post by: brewer bob on August 05, 2022, 02:24:49 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on August 06, 2022, 08:43:52 am
Quote
Arguably, more oppressive governments can oppress the truth better, so it's harder to document their human rights violations.
So if you are looking for the same proof in China as in the United States, the US looks worse because it's more open and better documented.
I don't really care about reasons, I care about the effect. If some aliens will use Amnesty International as their only source of information about humanity, they'll conclude that since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war 2014 Russia and Ukraine are mostly the same shit.
They'll also conclude that Israel is FAR FAR worse than HAMAS or Hezbollah.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 06, 2022, 11:07:55 am
A Ukrainian counter-offensive and liberation of Kherson is less and less likely, Russian brought A LOT of troops there and their offensive towards Mykolaiv and\or Kryviy Rih looks more likely than any progress in liberation of Kherson. They also keep pushing on the Eastern front, slowly but steadily. Russian reserves look infinite... I don't think that any major Ukrainian counter-offensive is possible ATM.
Speaking about Kherson, here is a really good article (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11086027/Insider-accounts-obtained-veteran-war-reporter-expose-unimaginable-evil-Kherson.html) about the situation in Kherson
Post by: EuchreJack on August 06, 2022, 01:08:57 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 06, 2022, 05:14:09 pm
Post by: The_Explorer on August 06, 2022, 08:09:00 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 06, 2022, 08:57:05 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on August 07, 2022, 12:22:01 am
It does look like Iran is selling UAVs to Russia, but I haven't seen definitive proof of that yet.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 07, 2022, 03:22:22 am
Spoiler: All Lives Matter! (click to show/hide)
Yes, it is exactly the same as the "all lives matter"... In theory, it is a positive message. In reality it says "We are annoyed that you are paying so much attention to
Also, what a GREAT way to spend donated money
Post by: King Zultan on August 07, 2022, 03:28:33 am
Post by: martinuzz on August 07, 2022, 04:21:53 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 07, 2022, 04:35:03 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 07, 2022, 06:16:57 am
In reality it says "We are annoyed that you are paying so much attention toI think that's just your reading. The concern about double standards is legitimate.bla...Ukrainians"
Post by: scriver on August 07, 2022, 07:58:42 am
Take my country, Sweden. Russia is, apart from a short period if German belligerence, the only country to threaten Sweden fir the last 200-300 years. Russia, as such, is the "inheritance enemy" of the Swedes. The threat of Russia attacking, though politically ignored for the last 30 years, still has had a very big impact on our culture.
Then we have the large section of the populace that us Slavic- or Eastern-European-rooted, and thus carries their own historical baggage against Russia/USSR.
In addition to that history, it is the case that Russia has acted with increasing military hostility towards Sweden, with breaches of our airspace and similar often happening several times a year, as well as diplomatic threats being common -- the intimidation attempts that garnered international attention when Sweden and Finland tipped over to joining NATO earlier this year may have been newsworthy to the world, but for us it is just more of or the culmination of what we already get om a regular basis.
Then there's the socio-economic factor, where the people of Sweden are much more intertwined with Ukraine both by Ukrainians working here and Swedes working there, and this greater "everyday connection" results in greater emotional bonds.
So yeah, there's a whole slew of reasons for why Swedes would feel that "Ukraine's sake is ours (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finlands_sak_%C3%A4r_v%C3%A5r)", to paraphrase an old relevant slogan, and you have to ignore all that history and currentory if you want to pretend the different reactions are just different standards for the same thing. It's a very flat view of the world to take.
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 07, 2022, 08:14:39 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 07, 2022, 12:59:24 pm
Amnesty International’s priority in this and in any conflict is ensuring that civilians are protected. Indeed, this was our sole objective when releasing this latest piece of research. While we fully stand by our findings, we regret the pain caused.
*Laugh hysterically*
What an apology! I read it as:
"Dear friend, I am completely right and did nothing wrong but I am sorry that you are so stupid to be insulted by my actions"
Post by: hector13 on August 07, 2022, 01:42:47 pm
Post by: Starver on August 07, 2022, 02:21:54 pm
We know that Russia will say that they're attacking a purely military target, while (accidentally or otherwise) essentially committing indiscriminate Total War against the population (not even just selecting those that aren't their own natural supporters). While I don't say this gives Ukrainean forces carte blanche to push the limits of what's expected, I imagine that it pretty much doesn't matter what they do, short of chequerboarding the landscape with easy "We, and we alone are here!" zones from which they have evicted all locals and congregate their equipment to tempt the (inaccurate) weaponry into being thrown towards a very easy target.
No plan survives contact with the enemy. The most idealistic of best wishes to maintain a military/civic separation is likewise prone to being strained to breaking point without any deliberate intention. I don't think I care to judge this point right now, and only history will truly reveal who will have done what to flout convention.
Post by: bloop_bleep on August 07, 2022, 06:39:36 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on August 08, 2022, 01:00:05 am
I mean… if the Ukrainian military are stationing troops and materiel near civilians, then yeah. That’s bad.Yes! It is so much better when there are no Ukrainian troops around Ukrainian civilians, like in Bucha.
All that Amnesty International report did is saying "Yes, just as Russia says, they never target civilians and when they do it is because the evil Ukrainian army uses Ukrainian civilians as meatshields". They are parroting Russian propaganda and frankly speaking I think it is Russian propaganda and someone in Amnesty International got a hefty sum of money for this.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 08, 2022, 01:03:28 am
Post by: hector13 on August 08, 2022, 01:59:52 am
I mean… if the Ukrainian military are stationing troops and materiel near civilians, then yeah. That’s bad.Yes! It is so much better when there are no Ukrainian troops around Ukrainian civilians, like in Bucha.
You prefer the Russian war criminals to have plausible deniability? Got it.
Quote
All that Amnesty International report did is saying "Yes, just as Russia says, they never target civilians and when they do it is because the evil Ukrainian army uses Ukrainian civilians as meatshields". They are parroting Russian propaganda and frankly speaking I think it is Russian propaganda and someone in Amnesty International got a hefty sum of money for this.
Bullshit, they said no such thing. They said Ukrainian troops were putting civilians at risk by setting up in residential areas, which goes against international conventions to protect civilians in war.
Nowhere in the report did they ever excuse Russia for attacking civilians. If it’s a propaganda job, it’s a piss-poor one, and Putin should ask for a refund.
The ones dancing to the tune of Russian propaganda are, ironically, the Ukrainian military, as them setting up shop near civilians allows the Russians to say “we were aiming for the legitimate military target nearby, honest!”
Post by: Strongpoint on August 08, 2022, 03:06:10 am
I mean… if the Ukrainian military are stationing troops and materiel near civilians, then yeah. That’s bad.Yes! It is so much better when there are no Ukrainian troops around Ukrainian civilians, like in Bucha.
All that Amnesty International report did is saying "Yes, just as Russia says, they never target civilians and when they do it is because the evil Ukrainian army uses Ukrainian civilians as meatshields". They are parroting Russian propaganda and frankly speaking I think it is Russian propaganda and someone in Amnesty International got a hefty sum of money for this.
Bullshit, they said no such thing. They said Ukrainian troops were putting civilians at risk by setting up in residential areas, which goes against international conventions to protect civilians in war.
Nowhere in the report did they ever excuse Russia for attacking civilians. If it’s a propaganda job, it’s a piss-poor one, and Putin should ask for a refund.
Of course, they didn't say it directly.
And it is a great propaganda piece, it is multiplied and cited by all Russian propaganda outlets, ranging from Russian TV to countless Twitter bots.
And here (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/columns/2022/08/5/7362086/) is a good article about why AI's allegations are... let's say... questionable.
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 08, 2022, 05:58:56 am
The ones dancing to the tune of Russian propaganda are, ironically, the Ukrainian military, as them setting up shop near civilians allows the Russians to say “we were aiming for the legitimate military target nearby, honest!”
The laws of war in question prohibit putting troops and weapons in areas that are forbidden to attack, such as a SAM site on the roof of a hospital, or rocket artillery in a school. There's no evidence that Ukraine is doing that. What they are doing is fighting from the cities - including residential buildings - that have come under attack.
It is impossible to defend a city without putting troops in it, and no laws of war say "you must hand over your city as soon as it is threatened, not doing so is a war crime". There is no portion of the Geneva or Hague conventions that require you to fight only from open field or military bases.
The relevant part of international law is
Quote
Article 58 [ Link ] -- Precautions against the effects of attacks
The Parties to the conflict shall, to the maximum extent feasible:
(a) without prejudice to Article 49 [ Link ] of the Fourth Convention, endeavour to remove the civilian population, individual civilians and civilian objects under their control from the vicinity of military objectives;
(b) avoid locating military objectives within or near densely populated areas;
(c) take the other necessary precautions to protect the civilian population, individual civilians and civilian objects under their control against the dangers resulting from military operations.
The first bolded section is enough to throw Amnesty's allegations in the trash bin - it is not feasible for Ukraine, the party that is the target of a war of extermination, to dictate where fighting will occur, or to ensure that all civilians are evacuated before the other side starts shooting.
The second bolded section places all blame firmly on Russia. Military objectives are set by the aggressor, not the defender. Russia decides where they are going to aim their genocidal invasion, Ukraine doesn't get a say.
Post by: hector13 on August 08, 2022, 10:27:08 am
The ones dancing to the tune of Russian propaganda are, ironically, the Ukrainian military, as them setting up shop near civilians allows the Russians to say “we were aiming for the legitimate military target nearby, honest!”
The laws of war in question prohibit putting troops and weapons in areas that are forbidden to attack, such as a SAM site on the roof of a hospital, or rocket artillery in a school. There's no evidence that Ukraine is doing that. What they are doing is fighting from the cities - including residential buildings - that have come under attack.
According to the report, there is evidence that Ukraine is basing troops in schools and hospitals though, which then makes these military targets.
Quote
It is impossible to defend a city without putting troops in it, and no laws of war say "you must hand over your city as soon as it is threatened, not doing so is a war crime". There is no portion of the Geneva or Hague conventions that require you to fight only from open field or military bases.
There’s nowhere in the report that says Ukraine should hand over the cities, or otherwise not defend them.
Quote
The relevant part of international law isQuoteArticle 58 [ Link ] -- Precautions against the effects of attacks
The Parties to the conflict shall, to the maximum extent feasible:
(a) without prejudice to Article 49 [ Link ] of the Fourth Convention, endeavour to remove the civilian population, individual civilians and civilian objects under their control from the vicinity of military objectives;
(b) avoid locating military objectives within or near densely populated areas;
(c) take the other necessary precautions to protect the civilian population, individual civilians and civilian objects under their control against the dangers resulting from military operations.
The first bolded section is enough to throw Amnesty's allegations in the trash bin - it is not feasible for Ukraine, the party that is the target of a war of extermination, to dictate where fighting will occur, or to ensure that all civilians are evacuated before the other side starts shooting.
So the decision to park Ukrainian military vehicles and base Ukrainian troops near occupied high rise buildings is a Russian military decision?
It is feasible for Ukraine to make every available effort to keep civilians out of the line of fire. If you have no alternative but to create a military target near civilians, the other parts say they need to be kept safe. Ukraine doesn’t decide when the shooting starts, but they can evacuate people from areas where shooting is likely to occur, like around military vehicles. If they cannot evacuate them they have to use other feasible means to keep them safe, like early warning systems, or finding a place for them to shelter in the event of attack.
They may not decide when the shooting starts, they can decide where the shooting occurs, and they can make efforts to warn civilians when fire is incoming and otherwise try to keep them safe.
Quote
The second bolded section places all blame firmly on Russia. Military objectives are set by the aggressor, not the defender. Russia decides where they are going to aim their genocidal invasion, Ukraine doesn't get a say.
If Ukraine set up artillery, that becomes a military target. If troops requisition a building as barracks or weapon stores or anything like that, that becomes a military target. Ukraine has some agency in what Russia is going to target.
Russia is the aggressor, Russia is engaging in war crimes, Ukraine does not have to make it easy for them to brush civilian casualties off as collateral damage of legitimate military targets.
I mean… if the Ukrainian military are stationing troops and materiel near civilians, then yeah. That’s bad.Yes! It is so much better when there are no Ukrainian troops around Ukrainian civilians, like in Bucha.
All that Amnesty International report did is saying "Yes, just as Russia says, they never target civilians and when they do it is because the evil Ukrainian army uses Ukrainian civilians as meatshields". They are parroting Russian propaganda and frankly speaking I think it is Russian propaganda and someone in Amnesty International got a hefty sum of money for this.
Bullshit, they said no such thing. They said Ukrainian troops were putting civilians at risk by setting up in residential areas, which goes against international conventions to protect civilians in war.
Nowhere in the report did they ever excuse Russia for attacking civilians. If it’s a propaganda job, it’s a piss-poor one, and Putin should ask for a refund.
Of course, they didn't say it directly.
And it is a great propaganda piece, it is multiplied and cited by all Russian propaganda outlets, ranging from Russian TV to countless Twitter bots.
And here (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/columns/2022/08/5/7362086/) is a good article about why AI's allegations are... let's say... questionable.
Of course Russia are using it as propaganda, it’s being critical of their enemy. Do you think they quoted the parts of the report (or indeed the other AI reports) that were critical of Russian troops?
The piece absolutely ignores the realities of war, but that doesn’t mean it has no merit. Civilians are dying at the hands of Russian murderers every day, but Ukraine doesn’t need to make it easier for Russia to justify it.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 08, 2022, 11:14:43 am
Quote
It is feasible for Ukraine to make every available effort to keep civilians out of the line of fire. If you have no alternative but to create a military target near civilians, the other parts say they need to be kept safe. Ukraine doesn’t decide when the shooting starts, but they can evacuate people from areas where shooting is likely to occur, like around military vehicles. If they cannot evacuate them they have to use other feasible means to keep them safe, like early warning systems, or finding a place for them to shelter in the event of attack.
And Ukraine is doing exactly that. End of Story. Amnesty International should prove if it is not the case before throwing allegations around. Let go through some parts of that "research"
Ukraine: Ukrainian fighting tactics endanger civilians
What a nice and not clickbaity headline that doesn't read like - Ukrainian army are war criminals.
Ukrainian forces have put civilians in harm’s way by establishing bases and operating weapons systems in populated residential areas, including in schools and hospitals, as they repelled the Russian invasion that began in February, Amnesty International said today.
Such tactics violate international humanitarian law and endanger civilians, as they turn civilian objects into military targets. The ensuing Russian strikes in populated areas have killed civilians and destroyed civilian infrastructure.
Russians are not guilty of those strikes and resulting deaths, it is Ukraine's fault! If they didn't defend, Russia would have no reason to shoot! Also, it would be nice if that report would mention which laws are broken and how
...Not every Russian attack documented by Amnesty International followed this pattern, however. In certain other locations in which Amnesty International concluded that Russia had committed war crimes, including in some areas of the city of Kharkiv, the organization did not find evidence of Ukrainian forces located in the civilian areas unlawfully targeted by the Russian military...
Mot every... Certain... What %, dear neutral researches? 5%? Must be Russians mistakenly thinking that there were Ukrainian troops, honest mistake). And it clearly says that shelling cities in a genocidal undeclared war of aggression is not criminal at all if there are a soldier or two in the area.
Viable alternatives were available that would not endanger civilians – such as military bases or densely wooded areas nearby, or other structures further away from residential areas.
Military bases location of which is known to the enemy? Wooded areas that offer no protection whatsoever (and very hard to provide logistical support to)? Other structures are also civilian objects.
Between April and July, Amnesty International researchers spent several weeks investigating Russian strikes in the Kharkiv, Donbas and Mykolaiv regions. The organization inspected strike sites; interviewed survivors, witnesses and relatives of victims of attacks; and carried out remote-sensing and weapons analysis.
I wonder what % of witnesses are coming from occupied territories and Russian filtration camps. Mentioning Donbas makes me suspect that they studied Mariupol
Amnesty International is not aware that the Ukrainian military who located themselves in civilian structures in residential areas asked or assisted civilians to evacuate nearby buildings
Dear researchers, you not being aware of something doesn't mean it is non-existent. It is called a baseless accusation. You should provide FREAKING proof that Ukrainian army doesn't do this. Also, those things can't be done loudly. Enemy has intelligence and precise weapons. Announcing on television "Everyone in 100 m of X, evacuate immediately" equals to messaging Russians "hey, shoot there!"
Mykola, who lives in a tower block in a neighbourhood of Lysychansk (Donbas) that was repeatedly struck by Russian attacks which killed at least one older man, told Amnesty International: “I don’t understand why our military is firing from the cities and not from the field.”
Let me answer, Mykola. Artillery in the open field is very easy to spot and easy to destroy. Also, logistic chains. Same goes for tanks, SAMs, infantry, everything. Also, there were calls (and assistance) for evacuation long before front-line approached now occupied Lusychansk.
AI included an absolutely dumb question without answering it. Why?
Anna said: “Shrapnel flew through the doors. I was inside. The Ukrainian artillery was near my field… The soldiers were behind the field, behind the house… I saw them coming in and out… since the war started… My mother is… paralyzed, so I couldn’t flee.”
But was she warned? Likely.
And so on... It is not a research. It is a piece of anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian propaganda.
Quote
Of course Russia are using it as propaganda, it’s being critical of their enemy. Do you think they quoted the parts of the report (or indeed the other AI reports) that were critical of Russian troops?
And here is a simple truth. When you see a maniac trying to rape and kill a woman and you are unable or unwilling to help her... At least, shut up and not criticize her "dirty" attempts to fight back. Doing so is siding with the maniac and classical case of victim blaming.
Edit: Oh, it looks like they DID use testimonies of people imprisoned in Russian filtration camps - https://twitter.com/StratcomCentre/status/1556639186257874944
Post by: Strongpoint on August 08, 2022, 02:03:26 pm
"The Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months
On one hand, it sounds like a lot... But the sad reality that it is a drop in a bucket of in Russian manpower. Like 0.2% of their adult male population. This war will not end any time soon.
They didn't even lose valuable people who contribute (or could contribute) to the national GDP. Ukraine is doing Russia a favor by eliminating destructive elements of the society while we lose best sons and daughters... It is so unfair
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 08, 2022, 05:27:16 pm
Spoiler: spoilered because big meme image (click to show/hide)
Post by: Strongpoint on August 09, 2022, 12:40:11 am
This nuclear plant worries me a lot. Russians mined everything but reactors there, to blow it up should they need to retreat. It will result in minor contamination and render the station inoperable for a long time... But they also casually park trucks full of explosives near reactors and if those will blow up... It is a matter of planetary security which is casually ignored by the world.
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 09, 2022, 12:44:22 am
Big pictures really should go under spoiler.
RIP, edited it into a spoiler on realizing that, thanks for pointing it out.
Post by: King Zultan on August 09, 2022, 03:38:40 am
Post by: Quarque on August 09, 2022, 03:58:12 am
This nuclear plant worries me a lot. Russians mined everything but reactors there, to blow it up should they need to retreat. It will result in minor contamination and render the station inoperable for a long time... But they also casually park trucks full of explosives near reactors and if those will blow up... It is a matter of planetary security which is casually ignored by the world.I don't know if it is ignored, but what can be done? :-[
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 09, 2022, 04:59:51 am
So how is the Ukraine supposed to protect the civilians in cities if they can't have soldiers in cities?That's the neat thing, they can't. Amnesty can go and shove their accusations up their collective ass.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 09, 2022, 08:55:16 am
Spoiler: Relevant meme (click to show/hide)
I can't... Internet is full of videos of MASSIVE explosions and Russian official news are like "Nothing major happened, few bombs accidentally detonated, no causalities and no damaged aircrafts. And Ukrainians have nothing to do with this."
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 09, 2022, 09:26:22 am
Post by: hector13 on August 09, 2022, 09:47:56 am
Amnesty didn’t say they can’t have soldiers in cities.So how is the Ukraine supposed to protect the civilians in cities if they can't have soldiers in cities?That's the neat thing, they can't. Amnesty can go and shove their accusations up their collective ass.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 09, 2022, 09:52:26 am
Amnesty didn’t say they can’t have soldiers in cities.So how is the Ukraine supposed to protect the civilians in cities if they can't have soldiers in cities?That's the neat thing, they can't. Amnesty can go and shove their accusations up their collective ass.
They said exactly that. I made a long post quoting relevant parts of their "report" that say exactly that. Move to military bases and wooded areas and get killed there)))
Post by: hector13 on August 09, 2022, 10:04:55 am
Amnesty didn’t say they can’t have soldiers in cities.So how is the Ukraine supposed to protect the civilians in cities if they can't have soldiers in cities?That's the neat thing, they can't. Amnesty can go and shove their accusations up their collective ass.
They said exactly that. I made a long post quoting relevant parts of their "report" that say exactly that. Move to military bases and wooded areas and get killed there)))
When alternatives are available they should be used, is what they said.
Post by: Madman198237 on August 09, 2022, 10:12:18 am
There is absolutely nothing for it but to fight from the cities, which are both the location that must be defended the most AND the easiest places to defend. Losing the entire country to literally genocidal maniacs in exchange for slightly less threat to civilians is...not an option. Not a realistic, reasonable, or conscionable one anyway.
Post by: hector13 on August 09, 2022, 10:22:44 am
And the whole point is that there AREN'T alternatives available. Not unless you want your populace to return to places with no housing, no industry, no infrastructure, etc. Unless you think that A. the Russians will just leave without being forced out, violently or B. the Russians are going to find any problem with demolishing a city if, somehow, Ukraine manages to beat superior Russian numbers in the open field and forces the Russians to retreat.
There is absolutely nothing for it but to fight from the cities, which are both the location that must be defended the most AND the easiest places to defend. Losing the entire country to literally genocidal maniacs in exchange for slightly less threat to civilians is...not an option. Not a realistic, reasonable, or conscionable one anyway.
Again someone is coming from the position that Amnesty said not to fight in cities.
The report said the military should use viable alternatives if available, and if not, make every available effort to protect civilians nearby.
The advice is “be better”, which is shit advice, yes, but it is not “LET RUSSIA OVERRUN YOUR POSITIONS WITH NO RESISTANCE AND RAPE PILLAGE AND MURDER THEIR WAY TO KYIV YOU FUCKS”, as everyone here appears to think.
Post by: Starver on August 10, 2022, 12:49:01 am
So, the first strike into Crimea... I mean Russians really should stop smoking near their military airbases.
So, we finally get to see what Medvedev meant by "Judgement Day will instantly await" if anything like this happened. Perhaps. So am now awaiting. Instantly!
(I presume that's a decent translation with nuance transposed across the linguistic gap. But it may be a bit of a Google Translate atrocity of (non)sense rather than a brain-in-neutral/mouth-in-gear oddness even in the original.) ((Or, indeed, if the error wasn't a thinko at this end, someone mistranscribing "instantly awake"!))
Post by: Strongpoint on August 10, 2022, 01:44:39 am
Here is how cars on a parking lot near the airbase look - https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1557248601591521280 I am sure that all of the aircrafts there are in a perfect flying condition
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 10, 2022, 04:00:30 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on August 10, 2022, 05:44:13 am
A senior Pentagon official estimated on Monday, August 8 that as many as 80,000 Russians have been killed or wounded in Ukraine since the war began in late February.It is however, 10% of active personnel
"The Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months
On one hand, it sounds like a lot... But the sad reality that it is a drop in a bucket of in Russian manpower. Like 0.2% of their adult male population. This war will not end any time soon.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 10, 2022, 08:54:31 am
Yeah. Once active personnel runs dry, they will have to mobilize. Which will ignite unrest, on a much larger scale than the war did.A senior Pentagon official estimated on Monday, August 8 that as many as 80,000 Russians have been killed or wounded in Ukraine since the war began in late February.It is however, 10% of active personnel
"The Russians have probably taken 70 or 80,000 casualties in less than six months
On one hand, it sounds like a lot... But the sad reality that it is a drop in a bucket of in Russian manpower. Like 0.2% of their adult male population. This war will not end any time soon.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 10, 2022, 11:21:03 am
Brave Russian tourists don't seem to believe in the Russian military might that will protect them against Ukrainian strikes. Russians pretend to believe propaganda... until their own lives are threatened. Enjoy your summer vacation, guys!
BTW, it is what Russians expected to see on all Ukrainian roads after their initial strike. Never happened.
Post by: MCreeper on August 10, 2022, 11:42:30 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 10, 2022, 12:18:58 pm
Nah, it did. Main westward road from Kyiv was filled to the brim for few days straight. How do you think all those refugee hordes left the country? :P
I didn't say that there were no traffic jams. I said there were no traffic jams everywhere. Huge majority of roads were free and operational for essential logistics and there was no nationwide panic. And even convoys of civilian cars going to Poland were quite fast-moving (in part because Poland did everything superbly, Poland managed to accept a huge amount of traffic through several border crossings. Polish help was (and is) immense)
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 10, 2022, 12:48:10 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on August 10, 2022, 12:57:43 pm
Right, and here you see one traffic jam. Like you see on any highway, anywhere, everyday. But you decide to read it as widespread panic.
Widespread? No(t yet). But if you want to persuade me that this traffic jam isn't caused by Russian tourists suddenly deciding to abort their vacation... I won't believe you
Post by: bloop_bleep on August 10, 2022, 12:59:09 pm
https://mobile.twitter.com/Euan_MacDonald/status/1557026534635995139
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 10, 2022, 01:20:42 pm
I get into at least one jam whenever I drive between Krakow and Wroclaw. It's not that hard to find one to film and slap a heart-warming/vindicative/propagandist explanation on. Because it couldn't possibly be another broken truck blocking a lane.
You do understand what I'm getting at, right?
Post by: nenjin on August 10, 2022, 01:47:40 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on August 10, 2022, 02:48:30 pm
But how do you >know< it's not a regular traffic jam on a highway? This is a genuine question. Like, are all those cars on plates from outside Crimea?Why do I assume that it is not a regular traffic jam?
Because it is not the only source of information that Russian tourists are leaving Crimean beaches en masse. Because I know that usually there are no multi-hour traffic jams in this area at this time of the year. It isn't early-mid September when Russians come home from vacations.
Post by: King Zultan on August 11, 2022, 02:42:25 am
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 11, 2022, 03:23:35 am
Why is a traffic jam that big of a deal anyway, wouldn't the Russian vacationers have left the area long ago?
Cockiness due to Putin's propaganda, or possibly not wanting to be seen giving the regime an obvious sign that they don't believe in Dear Leader's ability to ensure their safety, which may run the risk of suicide by defenestration/shooting oneself in the back of the head/serving oneself a cup of polonium tea/etc.
Or just being mocked as cowards by their fellows who drank much more of the koolaid, since being outed as someone who went too easy on the koolaid is a Bad Thing in fascist communities. That's presumably not pleasant either.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 11, 2022, 10:58:33 am
Post by: nenjin on August 11, 2022, 11:56:41 am
Post by: martinuzz on August 11, 2022, 12:40:27 pm
That would mean (depending on the wind) irradiating half of Europe again.
Which I think would mean war.
Also I don't think it was Russia who called for the UN Security meeting. Unless they called for it after a lot of other countries had already called for that (and the UN Secretary already strongly suggested the power plant be abandoned as a military site by Russia)
Post by: Strongpoint on August 11, 2022, 03:38:35 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on August 11, 2022, 09:27:21 pm
Post by: King Zultan on August 12, 2022, 01:43:58 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 12, 2022, 06:31:59 am
@amnesty
⚡️ Russia is using a nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine as an army base. The allegations we are receiving directly from Enerhodar, the town adjacent to the nuclear plant, speak volumes about the terrible impact of Russia’s militarization is having on civilians.
I "love" those guys. Allegations. Militarization... Using as soft words as possible. When will they start calling the Russian invasion a special military operation?
Post by: Strongpoint on August 12, 2022, 08:01:10 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 15, 2022, 08:36:16 am
I am so happy to know that he had enough time to train and that their equipment is of satisfactory quality. I expected everything to be so much worse, that year of 2022 will be the year of desperate guerilla resistance all over Ukraine.
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 15, 2022, 08:46:43 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 15, 2022, 09:15:41 am
It's not over yet, by any stretch of the imagination.Of course not, I have many pessimistic predictions about the future but so far everything is going
We have a very long war ahead
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 15, 2022, 09:21:55 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 15, 2022, 09:54:15 am
Is your brother on combat duty or support?Artillery crewman. Currently, in this thing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2S1_Gvozdika donated to us by one of the Eastern European countries.
As he described his combat role - shoot several rounds and GTFO because counter-battery fire WILL arrive minutes later. Nearly always.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 16, 2022, 04:49:16 pm
Amnesty InternationalEh, they're academics. I'm just glad they got around to acknowledging the Russian Nuclear Hostage scenario.
@amnesty
⚡️ Russia is using a nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine as an army base. The allegations we are receiving directly from Enerhodar, the town adjacent to the nuclear plant, speak volumes about the terrible impact of Russia’s militarization is having on civilians.
I "love" those guys. Allegations. Militarization... Using as soft words as possible. When will they start calling the Russian invasion a special military operation?
Post by: King Zultan on August 17, 2022, 03:45:47 am
Post by: scriver on August 17, 2022, 07:27:43 am
Post by: brewer bob on August 17, 2022, 07:48:16 am
What exactly is Amnesty gonna do to stop them doing that?
Petition? There's really not much else they (can) do.
Post by: bloop_bleep on August 17, 2022, 09:35:10 am
Post by: brewer bob on August 17, 2022, 10:27:44 am
You forget, the full name is Amnesty: International Vigilante Organization.
Ah yes, and their slogan is naturally: "Vigilantes of the World, Unite!"
Post by: EuchreJack on August 17, 2022, 11:16:36 am
But acknowledging it does nothing to stop them from using the plant as a base.
What it DOES do is acknowledge that Russia is at fault if anything happens to the plant.
This is huge. It gives Russia what they hate the most: Accountability.
This also opens the door to petitioning for neutral inspectors to make sure the plant is properly secured and regulated.
Post by: hector13 on August 17, 2022, 11:47:02 am
But acknowledging it does nothing to stop them from using the plant as a base.
What it DOES do is acknowledge that Russia is at fault if anything happens to the plant.
This is huge. It gives Russia what they hate the most: Accountability.
This also opens the door to petitioning for neutral inspectors to make sure the plant is properly secured and regulated.
The plant is being run (“run”) by Ukrainian technicians so even if neutral inspectors highlight issues, Russia will say it’s Ukraine’s fault, unless it can be directly related to the presence of Russia soldiers, in which case Russia will say it’s Ukraine’s fault.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 17, 2022, 12:34:32 pm
But acknowledging it does nothing to stop them from using the plant as a base.
What it DOES do is acknowledge that Russia is at fault if anything happens to the plant.
This is huge. It gives Russia what they hate the most: Accountability.
This also opens the door to petitioning for neutral inspectors to make sure the plant is properly secured and regulated.
The plant is being run (“run”) by Ukrainian technicians so even if neutral inspectors highlight issues, Russia will say it’s Ukraine’s fault, unless it can be directly related to the presence of Russia soldiers, in which case Russia will say it’s Ukraine’s fault.
Russia will say it is Ukraine's fault even if there will be all possible proofs pointing at them. What is funny - It will work. See MH17 (Well, maybe, in another decade or two there will be a court verdict that will go through all possible appeals...)
Post by: hector13 on August 17, 2022, 12:43:16 pm
Russia take the post-truth tack of blaming everyone else, and when they can’t do that, say everyone else does it too.
Post by: bloop_bleep on August 17, 2022, 01:07:55 pm
Post by: King Zultan on August 18, 2022, 03:26:06 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 18, 2022, 05:08:34 am
I doubt that any agreement with Russia is possible because all that bunch of armed Ukrainian men will see any kind of plausible ceasefire as treason and I hope Zelensky and our parliament understand this.
Post by: Starver on August 18, 2022, 07:08:11 am
Of course, the place's position as effective gatekeeper on a major transport route probably gives him that much more oomph on the world stage. I imagine he can exhert disproportionate clout even on Russia, but doubt he'll actually do that to the net benefit of Ukraine. Probably just enhance his own position whilst brokering a mutually unfulfilling scenario that won't ultimately fail because of his involvement, no, not at all...
I suppose it depends upon feelings about the grain-agreement(s), and how that's progressing, if it's just another incremental trilateral step and not leaping straight up to actual ground-concessions that are still well beyond the red lines both beligerants can't even draw anywhere near the others' red lines, let alone anywhere that gives room for mutually acceptable compromises.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 18, 2022, 10:18:38 am
"Beginning with the shelling of some residential facilities such as in Nikopol or Marganets, supposedly from public cameras and from hearsay claiming that it ‘came from us’. Or, most likely, [they are plotting] strikes on the nuclear power plant and the attempts at more precise strikes on the cooling system or directly on the waste dry storage facility," Vladimir Rogov specified.
Earlier on Thursday, Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Igor Konashenkov reported that on August 19, Kiev was plotting to stage a highly publicized false flag at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant during Guterres’ visit to Ukraine in order to accuse Russia of creating a man-made catastrophe at the nuclear facility.
The Zaporozhye nuclear power plant located in Energodar is controlled by Russian troops. Over the past few days, Ukrainian forces have carried out several strikes on the Zaporozhye NPP’s premises, using, among other things, drones, heavy artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems. The majority of attacks have been deflected by Russia’s air defense systems, however, some shells struck various infrastructure facilities and the vicinity of a nuclear waste storage facility.
So, Russians, more or less, announced that they will do something at the nuclear plant tomorrow. It is unlikely that they will go as far as blow the reactors (too much damage to them) up but something like deliberately damaging the cooling system and creating a radioactive water leak is very likely.
Post by: nenjin on August 18, 2022, 10:38:44 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 18, 2022, 11:18:39 am
Well...
Post by: EuchreJack on August 18, 2022, 11:26:11 am
Hopefully, the Russians will go for the minor leak that does little, and not the "Self-Destruct Button of Ukraine" option.
It could seriously go either way.
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 18, 2022, 11:32:15 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 18, 2022, 11:44:35 am
Here is a buildining standing right next to the reactor. If those trucks are full of explosives...
Post by: Starver on August 18, 2022, 11:49:28 am
Nyet, is False-False-False-Flag!
So, then I think it must be a False-False-False-Fal..?
Stop confusing us! That is our job!
Post by: hector13 on August 18, 2022, 11:56:04 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 18, 2022, 12:28:00 pm
Post by: King Zultan on August 19, 2022, 03:53:21 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 19, 2022, 04:48:16 am
Surprised it took so long for Russia to decide to blow up the power plant and blame it on the Ukraine, not sure why they're saying it out loud.
I really-really doubt that they will actually blow up* the station and cause a planetary-level ecological catastrophe. But damaging it enough to force a complete shutdown and Fukushima-level disaster with minor local contamination - why not? Resulting panic alone (and Ukrainians have a quite high level of radiation phobia) is a great tactical result.
*Should Ukraine get a successful counter-offensive and approach the station... it will become far more likely.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 19, 2022, 04:07:13 pm
Russia wants to keep the Zaporizhzhia plant intact. They intend to cut the power currently being supplied to Ukraine and divert it to parts of the country they control (and probably divert some back to Russia itself). Russia also intends to keep using the plant as a base from which they can attack Ukraine without counterattack.
This creates an area that Russia can keep regardless of the outcome of the war in other areas.
Post by: Great Order on August 19, 2022, 04:15:42 pm
I've already commented a bit on the Junior Reporter thread, but I'll put together my overall theory at this time in this thread:That only works if Ukraine can't cut them off from supplies. If the plant's surrounded they'll be left with airdropping them in instead, and makes reinforcements pretty damn difficult to get in so Ukraine can just bleed them white instead.
Russia wants to keep the Zaporizhzhia plant intact. They intend to cut the power currently being supplied to Ukraine and divert it to parts of the country they control (and probably divert some back to Russia itself). Russia also intends to keep using the plant as a base from which they can attack Ukraine without counterattack.
This creates an area that Russia can keep regardless of the outcome of the war in other areas.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 19, 2022, 04:17:39 pm
I've already commented a bit on the Junior Reporter thread, but I'll put together my overall theory at this time in this thread:That only works if Ukraine can't cut them off from supplies. If the plant's surrounded they'll be left with airdropping them in instead, and makes reinforcements pretty damn difficult to get in so Ukraine can just bleed them white instead.
Russia wants to keep the Zaporizhzhia plant intact. They intend to cut the power currently being supplied to Ukraine and divert it to parts of the country they control (and probably divert some back to Russia itself). Russia also intends to keep using the plant as a base from which they can attack Ukraine without counterattack.
This creates an area that Russia can keep regardless of the outcome of the war in other areas.
Then the Russians claim that the plant will explode if they are unable to bring supplies to the plant. By which they mean, let them ferry military reinforcements from Russia through the plant, or they'll trigger a meltdown.
Post by: Great Order on August 19, 2022, 04:22:49 pm
Or maybe Ukraine would say "Sure, so long as we can look at the supplies first" followed by Russia inevitably saying "No because you'll [insert bollocks reasoning not to let them see the food/ammo/fuel/personnel]"
Post by: EuchreJack on August 19, 2022, 04:26:43 pm
EDIT: Man I'm stupid. The reason this is an issue is because Russia doesn't actually control the area around Zaporizhzhia anymore.
HOWEVER, there appears to be a sea route to Zaporizhzhia. So basically, if this wasn't a super-careful nuclear plant, it would already be in Ukraine's hands.
At least according to the maps that I'm looking at.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682)
https://liveuamap.com/ (https://liveuamap.com/)
EDIT2: Essentially, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is an island of Russian control in the middle of Ukraine's territory, and the Russians are using it to attack the Ukrainians essentially from behind their lines. Russia's making it clear they won't be surrendering the plant, and that Russia could trigger a meltdown if they are deprived of the plant.
Post by: nenjin on August 19, 2022, 04:42:14 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on August 19, 2022, 04:56:48 pm
Sounds like the setup for a late 90s American action movie.Unfortunately, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Chuck Norris are too old.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 19, 2022, 09:53:11 pm
EDIT2: Essentially, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is an island of Russian control in the middle of Ukraine's territory, and the Russians are using it to attack the Ukrainians essentially from behind their lines.
Ehm? No. You are very mistaken. Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is located near Enerhodar, on the Russian-controlled side of the Dnipro river. They use it to lob shells across the river...
It is called Zaporizhia nuclear plant not because it is located in (near) the city of Zaporizhzhia (which had seen no Russian coming close) but because it is located in the region with the same name.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 20, 2022, 12:42:12 am
EDIT2: Essentially, the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is an island of Russian control in the middle of Ukraine's territory, and the Russians are using it to attack the Ukrainians essentially from behind their lines.
Ehm? No. You are very mistaken. Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is located near Enerhodar, on the Russian-controlled side of the Dnipro river. They use it to lob shells across the river...
It is called Zaporizhia nuclear plant not because it is located in (near) the city of Zaporizhzhia (which had seen no Russian coming close) but because it is located in the region with the same name.
Oops, sorry. Back to the possibly-accurate maps I guess.
Edit: I'm no military strategist, but I see zero tactical reason for Ukraine to shell anywhere near the Plant.
Post by: King Zultan on August 20, 2022, 04:05:49 am
Post by: Grim Portent on August 20, 2022, 10:51:08 am
Edit: I'm no military strategist, but I see zero tactical reason for Ukraine to shell anywhere near the Plant.
Counter-shelling comes to mind. If the Russians have artillery stationed in the area then destroying that artillery necessitates firing near the plant. Leaving the artillery standing is not practical in the event of trying to retake the area, or even just if the Russians can shell somewhere important from it.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 21, 2022, 01:50:07 am
According to state media, Darya Dugina died after her car exploded in flames while she was driving home.
It is thought that her father, the Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin who is known as "Putin's brain," may have been the intended target of the attack.
Mr Dugin is a prominent ultra-nationalist ideologue who is believed to be close to the Russian president.
According to Russian media outlet 112, the pair were due to travel back from an event on Saturday evening in the same car before Mr Dugin made the decision to travel separately from his daughter at the last minute.
I am curious what happened there
Option 1) Spiders started eating each other in expectation of drastic changes in Russia
Option 2) My dream of Ukrainian Massad tasked with executing criminals became a reality
In any case, I am very happy to see this daughter of a genocidal fascist (as fascist as her father) getting a tiny bit of karma. And I want MORE. I want to see those Russian "philosophers", "journalists", "diplomats", "artists" living in fear. Crimes against humanity should not remain unpunished (and there no court that will ever get them)
Post by: brewer bob on August 21, 2022, 06:13:20 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 21, 2022, 07:39:48 am
Just a pity that the fascist Dugin didn't blow up with the car.
Who knows what is a bigger punishment? Seeing your daughter being killed and knowing that you are still a target is not a pleasant fate. He doesn't even know who it was. Is it some money stuff? Is it people who dislike his influence over Putin? Is it Putin himself for whatever reason? Ukrainians? Someone else?
Her death also made me think about free will, guilt, justice, and other stuff like that. Sure, she was a fascist who promoted genocide. But had she a chance to grow up and be anyone else being raised by this man?
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 21, 2022, 07:48:35 am
Post by: Quarque on August 21, 2022, 08:24:38 am
Her death also made me think about free will, guilt, justice, and other stuff like that. Sure, she was a fascist who promoted genocide. But had she a chance to grow up and be anyone else being raised by this man?Robert Zepolsky would say no.. but it's partly her nature, you can't attribute this 100% to nurture. She was actively spreading her dads propaganda. Not every child of a monster (even with such an upbringing as hers) does that.
Then again, I can't bring myself to be happy about a murder, however deserved.
Post by: Starver on August 21, 2022, 08:29:56 am
(The versions in my head where she was dissatisfied and the versions in my head where he is dissatisfied both seem to mesh pretty well into whether he's proving(/'proving') his loyalty or trying to spark up an escalation against... whoever.)
Though that's Conspiracy Theory at an epic level. Probably. Unless it isn't. TBH, I'd more (than the above) expect it to be a move by Putin (or his 'people', under his guidance or otherwise) just going straight to the point of inflaming public opinion and scaring any waverers into line, or something like that.
'Random' targetted violence (either with a Ukrainean bent or just infighting within the elite coterie class of Russia) with pretty much no subtlety is probably the easiest to believe. But might still provoke escheresque twisting of the circumstances to fulfill some required angle of spin. Which means we'll probably never really know. Even (especially... given the nature of the Russian court system) if a perpetrator is found(/'found') and punished(/'punished') somehow.
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 21, 2022, 08:45:53 am
Robert ZepolskySapolsky, right?
Post by: Quarque on August 21, 2022, 08:55:22 am
ah yesRobert ZepolskySapolsky, right?
Post by: KittyTac on August 21, 2022, 09:29:10 am
Post by: brewer bob on August 21, 2022, 10:17:42 am
I saw it mooted that Dugin arranged it himself, seeing a rift in opinions edging open between him and his daughter (nobody said who was changing their mind) and making a tactical sacrifice to reinforce/cover his position and/or provide a fulcrum moment to justify some future move.
Dunno who's behind the bombing, but my bet goes for some kind of infighting between neo-nazi/fascist groups. Wouldn't be the first time when they murder each other.
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 21, 2022, 10:23:09 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 21, 2022, 12:12:32 pm
Is it the beginning of the Russian Civil War? (And yes I know that those can be fake)
Post by: KittyTac on August 21, 2022, 12:14:59 pm
So, some previously unknown "National Republican Army" took the responsibility for the bombing. Apparently, they are Russians and they announce more acts of this nature against anyone loyal to Putin's regime.Слава героям.
Is it the beginning of the Russian Civil War?
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 21, 2022, 12:19:36 pm
So, some previously unknown "National Republican Army" took the responsibility for the bombing. Apparently, they are Russians and they announce more acts of this nature against anyone loyal to Putin's regime.Or maybe it was actually the GRU, and its a false flag attack. The Dugins are noisy but ultimately low value targets in the hierarchy.
Is it the beginning of the Russian Civil War?
Possible purposes:
- pander war support by providing "martyrs"
- accuse internal dissenters of being in league with Ukraine and land them with belonging to a terrorist group now
- remove nominally pro-Putin characters who are stridently ultranationalist and could pivot to being antiPutin if/when Putin ends up losing the war in Ukraine and has to sue for peace.
Either way, regardless of whether its real internal opposition, external opposition, or fake Kremlin led opposition, what is very clear is that the Dugins reaped the consequences of what they sowed.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 21, 2022, 12:22:29 pm
So, some previously unknown "National Republican Army" took the responsibility for the bombing. Apparently, they are Russians and they announce more acts of this nature against anyone loyal to Putin's regime.Or maybe it was actually the GRU, and its a false flag attack. The Dugins are noisy but ultimately low value targets in the hierarchy.
Is it the beginning of the Russian Civil War?
Possible purposes:
- pander war support by providing "martyrs"
- accuse internal dissenters of being in league with Ukraine and land them with belonging to a terrorist group now
- remove nominally pro-Putin characters who are stridently ultranationalist and could pivot to being antiPutin if/when Putin ends up losing the war in Ukraine and has to sue for peace.
Yes. Or they are some clowns that claim even unrelated to them. Or it is Ukrainian disinformation. But it is an interesting development nevertheless.
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 21, 2022, 12:39:24 pm
Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if Putin uses it as an excuse to ramp up atrocities against Ukraine anyway even with a Russian group openly taking credit for it, because having to admit that your own citizens violently disagree with you is probably not good for a dictator's morale.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 21, 2022, 01:20:49 pm
Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if Putin uses it as an excuse to ramp up atrocities against Ukraine anyway even with a Russian group openly taking credit for it, because having to admit that your own citizens violently disagree with you is probably not good for a dictator's morale.
Putin doesn't need any excuses to ramp up anything... I just got a lovely SMS describing new sounds of air raid sirens for chemical and radioactive threats...
We are fully expecting something very nasty during this week. They will try to "congratulate" us on our Independence day on 24th
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 21, 2022, 02:13:34 pm
Post by: KittyTac on August 21, 2022, 09:31:49 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on August 21, 2022, 09:55:37 pm
Слава героям.
I wonder if we could supply resources to the Russian partisans at all. Working behind the front lines like that could be very effective.
Post by: KittyTac on August 21, 2022, 10:10:29 pm
Yeah the West should 100% fund and arm any insurgency that appears.Слава героям.
I wonder if we could supply resources to the Russian partisans at all. Working behind the front lines like that could be very effective.
Post by: hector13 on August 21, 2022, 10:16:05 pm
Osama Bin Laden comes to mind when people say things like that.Yeah the West should 100% fund and arm any insurgency that appears.Слава героям.
I wonder if we could supply resources to the Russian partisans at all. Working behind the front lines like that could be very effective.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 22, 2022, 12:29:52 am
Fidel Castro is an earlier example, and Vladimir Lenin predates that.Osama Bin Laden comes to mind when people say things like that.Yeah the West should 100% fund and arm any insurgency that appears.Слава героям.
I wonder if we could supply resources to the Russian partisans at all. Working behind the front lines like that could be very effective.
Post by: hector13 on August 22, 2022, 12:47:52 am
Funding “revolution” comes back to bite you in the ass, was my point.Fidel Castro is an earlier example, and Vladimir Lenin predates that.Osama Bin Laden comes to mind when people say things like that.Yeah the West should 100% fund and arm any insurgency that appears.Слава героям.
I wonder if we could supply resources to the Russian partisans at all. Working behind the front lines like that could be very effective.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 22, 2022, 01:04:21 am
And I agreed with your point with additional examples.Funding “revolution” comes back to bite you in the ass, was my point.Fidel Castro is an earlier example, and Vladimir Lenin predates that.Osama Bin Laden comes to mind when people say things like that.Yeah the West should 100% fund and arm any insurgency that appears.Слава героям.
I wonder if we could supply resources to the Russian partisans at all. Working behind the front lines like that could be very effective.
Unrelated: I think it's HILARIOUS that people think the US isn't already funding dissident Russians, in one way or other. It's sort of the US modus operandi. I mean, I have no evidence or anything, but I know my own country.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 22, 2022, 01:34:07 am
Hey Strongpoint, I'm being asked for a source, where did you find info on that? I can't find anything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pofT8V8vytc - In Russian, includes their manifesto
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/21/ex-russian-mp-claims-russian-partisans-responsible-for-moscow-car-bomb?CMP=share_btn_tw - Article in English
Post by: EuchreJack on August 22, 2022, 01:47:20 am
The NRA did the car bombing.
Turns out NY's Attorney General Leticia James was right about them all along.
LOL.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Quarque on August 22, 2022, 01:56:55 am
Let's be realistic, though. Calling a single assassination the start of a revolution might be overly optimistic.
Post by: KittyTac on August 22, 2022, 02:22:41 am
Not always. It is immoral to not help rebels in this case. I'm fine with taking the risk, I just want to see blood on the Red Square.Funding “revolution” comes back to bite you in the ass, was my point.Fidel Castro is an earlier example, and Vladimir Lenin predates that.Osama Bin Laden comes to mind when people say things like that.Yeah the West should 100% fund and arm any insurgency that appears.Слава героям.
I wonder if we could supply resources to the Russian partisans at all. Working behind the front lines like that could be very effective.
Thanks.Hey Strongpoint, I'm being asked for a source, where did you find info on that? I can't find anything.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pofT8V8vytc - In Russian, includes their manifesto
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/21/ex-russian-mp-claims-russian-partisans-responsible-for-moscow-car-bomb?CMP=share_btn_tw - Article in English
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 22, 2022, 03:00:58 am
Not always. It is immoral to not help rebels in this case. I'm fine with taking the risk, I just want to see blood on the Red Square.Funding “revolution” comes back to bite you in the ass, was my point.Fidel Castro is an earlier example, and Vladimir Lenin predates that.Osama Bin Laden comes to mind when people say things like that.Yeah the West should 100% fund and arm any insurgency that appears.Слава героям.
I wonder if we could supply resources to the Russian partisans at all. Working behind the front lines like that could be very effective.
And the reason you are wrong is that you don't know what you are actually funding. What if it turns out to be a fake group set up by Putin?
Post by: KittyTac on August 22, 2022, 03:10:21 am
I am not saying to fund them without doing the necessary recon and research, or to fund them right now. I'm thinking if/when the bullets start flying or just before that. Then the risk of it actually being a 5D Chess With Multidimensional Time Travel play is negligible.Not always. It is immoral to not help rebels in this case. I'm fine with taking the risk, I just want to see blood on the Red Square.Funding “revolution” comes back to bite you in the ass, was my point.Fidel Castro is an earlier example, and Vladimir Lenin predates that.Osama Bin Laden comes to mind when people say things like that.Yeah the West should 100% fund and arm any insurgency that appears.Слава героям.
I wonder if we could supply resources to the Russian partisans at all. Working behind the front lines like that could be very effective.
And the reason you are wrong is that you don't know what you are actually funding. What if it turns out to be a fake group set up by Putin?
Dugin also had a heart attack and is in hospital. :)
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 22, 2022, 03:23:13 am
Other than that, what can I say about this whole thing except (https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/582746442238525467/980443554360987658/Untitledmax.png) (https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/582746442238525467/980443554360987658/Untitledmax.png) (https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/582746442238525467/980443554360987658/Untitledmax.png)
Post by: King Zultan on August 22, 2022, 04:05:57 am
Post by: Grim Portent on August 22, 2022, 05:41:16 am
I don't get it what are those things?
Looks to be Russian foxgirls with guns ready to overthrow Putin.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 22, 2022, 05:44:19 am
Those are knives, but yes. It's an edit of the psycho wojak that a friend made.I don't get it what are those things?
Looks to be Russian foxgirls with guns ready to overthrow Putin.
Post by: scriver on August 22, 2022, 05:48:02 am
Post by: Quarque on August 22, 2022, 06:15:19 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 22, 2022, 06:43:09 am
Not everything is a false flag. There are millions of Russians against the war, why wouldn't one of them do this? If Putin wants to rally people he has far less contrived methods.Yeah. If anything, the opposition being able to make attempts at such famous figures makes the government look pretty weak and gives anti-Putin Russians a glimmer of hope and something to rally behind. I wouldn't risk it if I was Putin, or at least I'd blame it on "Ukrainian spies" to make people hate Ukraine.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 22, 2022, 07:07:20 am
I must say it is a boring version, I expected they'll blame British or American intelligence.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 22, 2022, 08:20:56 am
Am I the only one thinking Russian fake flag attacks to fuel support for the war?No. I'm fairly sure its the case
Also apparently Dugina wanted to replace the minister of defense and kept criticising his performance. So...
Post by: Strongpoint on August 22, 2022, 09:10:06 am
Am I the only one thinking Russian fake flag attacks to fuel support for the war?
Then Russia would blow up a residential building, kindergarten, etc. Even if they would decide to limit themselves to killing one person, they would choose someone more famous and well-known among the general Russian public.
- Inner political struggle
- Putin punishing Dugin for something
- Successful Ukrainian operation
- Those NRA guys are real
They will, of course, blame Ukraine. But doing this with the only intention of blaming Ukraine is not a plausible theory.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 22, 2022, 09:21:38 am
Well, FSB claims that they already solved the case and it was a Ukrainian agent who successfully fled via Estonia.Can't say I trust them TBH.
I must say it is a boring version, I expected they'll blame British or American intelligence.
:)Never post those ever again please tyThose are knives, but yes. It's an edit of the psycho wojak that a friend made.I don't get it what are those things?
Looks to be Russian foxgirls with guns ready to overthrow Putin.
This TBH. If you want to stage a false flag operation, destroy something or someone people care about. Not someone the average apathetic Russian will go "who?" at.Am I the only one thinking Russian fake flag attacks to fuel support for the war?
Then Russia would blow up a residential building, kindergarten, etc. Even if they would decide to limit themselves to killing one person, they would choose someone more famous and well-known among the general Russian public.
- Inner political struggle
- Putin punishing Dugin for something
- Successful Ukrainian operation
- Those NRA guys are real
They will, of course, blame Ukraine. But doing this with the only intention of blaming Ukraine is not a plausible theory.
Post by: Great Order on August 22, 2022, 10:20:09 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 22, 2022, 10:47:06 am
Ah, ok, so the FSB just lets an agent of a country that they're at war with walk right into the capital and bomb a car and get out. Really paints a good image of them. "Citizens of Russia be not afraid, for we are incompetent"
Not just any agent! An already identified member of Azov, which is on the list of terrorist organizations.
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 22, 2022, 12:41:01 pm
Post by: Grim Portent on August 22, 2022, 12:49:56 pm
Ah, ok, so the FSB just lets an agent of a country that they're at war with walk right into the capital and bomb a car and get out. Really paints a good image of them. "Citizens of Russia be not afraid, for we are incompetent"
Well it has been their explanation for everything bad that's happened to them during the war, so it's hardly surprising.
I'm honestly a bit surprised they didn't try to explain this as some kind of engine defect rather than enemy action.
Post by: bloop_bleep on August 22, 2022, 01:04:47 pm
Post by: Great Order on August 22, 2022, 01:07:28 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 22, 2022, 05:25:21 pm
Osama Bin Laden comes to mind when people say things like that.Yeah the West should 100% fund and arm any insurgency that appears.Слава героям.
I wonder if we could supply resources to the Russian partisans at all. Working behind the front lines like that could be very effective.
He shouldn't. Bin Laden never received Western aid, and the people who did fund him got exactly what they wanted.
Despite often being conflated with the Mujahedeen, Bid Laden was carrying out his own entirely independent war in the region, and was at war with the US-backed group as much as he was with the Sovit Union. The Taliban didn't even exist at the time, arising out of ideological splits well after the Soviets were kicked out.
Castro's a similar case where the people he was backed by (primarily the Soviets) got exactly what they wanted.
Post by: hector13 on August 22, 2022, 05:33:52 pm
Given Bin Laden was chummy with the head of Pakistani intelligence, it’s not unlikely that he received some of it/
Post by: nenjin on August 22, 2022, 05:59:21 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on August 23, 2022, 01:38:49 am
Well, FSB claims that they already solved the case and it was a Ukrainian agent who successfully fled via Estonia.
I must say it is a boring version, I expected they'll blame British or American intelligence.
That makes me think they either have no clue, or ironically that could be 100% accurate, as I imagine Ukrainian intelligence and the NRA are working close together.
As for False Flag, if so this is the stupidest False Flag ever, since it gives a name under which dissident Russians can organize attacks upon the Putin Government, along with giving an example of exactly what to do.
How do you create a Terrorist Cell? You claim that you are in touch with Foreign Powers that wish to assist in the Struggle, along with higher leadership that you can not disclose.
Then you sort of do stuff until said Foreign Powers notice you and they back up the initial lies you told to get started.
And now those prospective terrorists/rebels/patriots have a name....
Post by: Strongpoint on August 23, 2022, 04:34:22 am
Russian media failed to notice those guys (which goes against the assumption that it is some FSB's game). Some Western media did write about NRA but their only source is aforementioned Ponamorev. Ukrainian media didn't pay much attention to this, too.
As for Ukrainian officials - we have nothing to do with Dugina and have no idea about any NRA
Post by: EuchreJack on August 23, 2022, 08:08:18 am
Note that the only source claiming that those NRA guys are real is one guy, former Russian MP, Ponamorev.Arguably, that makes Ponamorev the leader of the NRA, and he's Russian.
Russian media failed to notice those guys (which goes against the assumption that it is some FSB's game). Some Western media did write about NRA but their only source is aforementioned Ponamorev. Ukrainian media didn't pay much attention to this, too.
As for Ukrainian officials - we have nothing to do with Dugina and have no idea about any NRA
Post by: Strongpoint on August 23, 2022, 02:44:29 pm
Her death also made me think about free will, guilt, justice, and other stuff like that. Sure, she was a fascist who promoted genocide. But had she a chance to grow up and be anyone else being raised by this man?
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1562033005702615040
To illustrate what kind of upbringing she had received
Post by: Great Order on August 23, 2022, 02:56:09 pm
Just kind of sad to be honest. You could grow up to be anything and your parents raise you like that.
Post by: brewer bob on August 23, 2022, 03:11:08 pm
Still, even an upbringing like that isn't guaranteed to indoctrinate the kid for life. Maybe in complete isolation, but I doubt that's the case.
She was raised a fascist, but she didn't have to remain one.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 23, 2022, 04:03:05 pm
That's pretty awful stuff Dugin says in that video. You got to be a really disturbed person to teach your baby those words as one of the first things and be proud of it.She probably WAS isolated. If your World is Fascism, there ain't other options.
Still, even an upbringing like that isn't guaranteed to indoctrinate the kid for life. Maybe in complete isolation, but I doubt that's the case.
She was raised a fascist, but she didn't have to remain one.
Now, I don't know her entire life story. Maybe she had opportunities to evolve (multiple would be required) that she scorned.
Post by: Great Order on August 23, 2022, 04:07:44 pm
Of course current me wouldn't, I'm on basically the opposite end of the spectrum, but still...
Post by: Strongpoint on August 23, 2022, 04:16:43 pm
She was raised a fascist, but she didn't have to remain one.
It is a deep philosophical question and has a lot to do with free will (or its absence)
In any case, the justice system can't reliably function if we don't assume that free will exists and that adults are 100% responsible for who they are and what they do.
Post by: Starver on August 23, 2022, 05:14:32 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on August 23, 2022, 05:42:04 pm
She was raised a fascist, but she didn't have to remain one.
It is a deep philosophical question and has a lot to do with free will (or its absence)
In any case, the justice system can't reliably function if we don't assume that free will exists and that adults are 100% responsible for who they are and what they do.
To be clear, the Justice System should not care who we are.
It's only what we do that matters.
And people are liable for what they do.
Post by: MorleyDev on August 23, 2022, 08:37:24 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 23, 2022, 10:02:38 pm
Post by: hector13 on August 23, 2022, 10:45:57 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 23, 2022, 11:01:04 pm
So if murdering fascists is okay, is it okay for fascists to defend themselves against this mortal peril?
Mmmm, imagine trying to worm your way into both-sides'ing the idea of targeting fascists for having already committed crimes against humanity, as if they haven't already been doing this shit without the theat of partisan reprisal to give them an excuse. :V
Post by: hector13 on August 23, 2022, 11:18:40 pm
So if murdering fascists is okay, is it okay for fascists to defend themselves against this mortal peril?
Mmmm, imagine trying to worm your way into both-sides'ing the idea of targeting fascists for having already committed crimes against humanity, as if they haven't already been doing this shit without the theat of partisan reprisal to give them an excuse. :V
Someone has to be the better person. Do you think that’ll be the fascists?
By all means defend yourself against the fash, violence is what they do, but once you cross the line into actively seeking them out to kill them, well… that sounds like something a fascist would do.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 23, 2022, 11:30:36 pm
So if murdering fascists is okay, is it okay for fascists to defend themselves against this mortal peril?Killing them is self-defense. So yes.
Again, the only way to stop them is to destroy or silence them first. It's not about method, I know that's what they think of us too, it's about ideology and them striking first. Seeking them out to kill them is defending yourself against them. Especially people like Dugin and his family...So if murdering fascists is okay, is it okay for fascists to defend themselves against this mortal peril?
Mmmm, imagine trying to worm your way into both-sides'ing the idea of targeting fascists for having already committed crimes against humanity, as if they haven't already been doing this shit without the theat of partisan reprisal to give them an excuse. :V
Someone has to be the better person. Do you think that’ll be the fascists?
By all means defend yourself against the fash, violence is what they do, but once you cross the line into actively seeking them out to kill them, well… that sounds like something a fascist would do.
УМРИТЕ, ГНИДЫ!
"If you kill fascists, you are a fascist" is a fallacy. It wouldn't be if they weren't actively responsible for crimes against humanity, but alas.
Post by: bloop_bleep on August 23, 2022, 11:34:03 pm
If people are being executed, kidnapped, or poisoned on the regular, you're already in a war. And the generals running the war are valid military targets.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 23, 2022, 11:35:14 pm
What looks like an assassination could very well be in actuality self-defense against a person who would otherwise spread unspeakable death and destruction.Exactly. They are essentially already attacking minorities, and it is idiotic to say minorities should just bend over and let them.
If people are being executed, kidnapped, or poisoned on the regular, you're already in a war.
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 23, 2022, 11:41:40 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on August 23, 2022, 11:44:36 pm
Post by: hector13 on August 23, 2022, 11:47:49 pm
It isn’t a fallacy to say murdering a fascist makes you like a fascist because fascists kill people who don’t think like them all the time. It’s part of their whole deal.
In a nutshell, if it's already escalated to the point of open genocide, arguing to "be better" kinda reeks of bothsides to me.
If you feel the need to reduce yourself to the level of a fascist to win against a fascist, you’ve already lost. Political violence is not just a means to them, it’s a goal.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 23, 2022, 11:53:23 pm
Preemptive strikes aren’t self-defense.Except not making preemptive strikes just leads them to keep existing and spreading their ideology. Yes they are self-defense, and you are bothsidesing this whole debate by implying that fighting back against people who want to kill you is evil. Fuck that.
It isn’t a fallacy to say murdering a fascist makes you like a fascist because fascists kill people who don’t think like them all the time. It’s part of their whole deal.In a nutshell, if it's already escalated to the point of open genocide, arguing to "be better" kinda reeks of bothsides to me.
If you feel the need to reduce yourself to the level of a fascist to win against a fascist, you’ve already lost. Political violence is not just a means to them, it’s a goal.
Also, fascism is more than just "killing people", and you fail to realize that. Political violence (against bigots) happens to be a goal for me too, and yet I am highly progressive. That is not fascism. You can call me one, but I won't give a damn.
NRA did nothing wrong. Hope they go for Dugin himself too.
Post by: bloop_bleep on August 23, 2022, 11:59:18 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 24, 2022, 12:04:49 am
It's not like running around shooting guys on the basis that they are in favor of small government or gun rights or whatever. If a person with institutional protection is committing murder, shoot 'em dead. It's not being the bigger man to sit around and watch people die.Yeah I'm not saying to shoot normal conservatives or anything. That's batshit. I don't like them but I don't want them to die. People often strawman me like this...
Post by: hector13 on August 24, 2022, 12:12:28 am
Preemptive strikes aren’t self-defense.Except not making preemptive strikes just leads them to keep existing and spreading their ideology. Yes they are self-defense.
It isn’t a fallacy to say murdering a fascist makes you like a fascist because fascists kill people who don’t think like them all the time. It’s part of their whole deal.In a nutshell, if it's already escalated to the point of open genocide, arguing to "be better" kinda reeks of bothsides to me.
If you feel the need to reduce yourself to the level of a fascist to win against a fascist, you’ve already lost. Political violence is not just a means to them, it’s a goal.
Also, fascism is more than just "killing people", and you fail to realize that. Political violence (against bigots) happens to be a goal for me too, and yet I am highly progressive. That is not fascism.
NRA did nothing wrong. Hope they go for Dugin himself too.
I don’t fail to realize that fascism is more than just killing people, you fail to realize that reducing yourself to their level won’t change anything. All it does is allow a fascist to now legitimately say that their own preemptive strikes are defending themselves against persecution from their opponents.
Political violence is a component of fascism. Engaging in your own political violence is acting like a fascist would. You see that yes?
This is why I have a problem with what you’re saying. It’s basically punching yourself in the face: fascists are bad, but acting like a fascist won’t mKe them go away, it’ll just draw attention to the fascist cause, which will draw more people to it. What’s the point?
Post by: EuchreJack on August 24, 2022, 12:26:33 am
Actually, political violence is also a component of Communism. Before the Nazis usurped power in German, they would brawl in the streets with the Communists.Preemptive strikes aren’t self-defense.Except not making preemptive strikes just leads them to keep existing and spreading their ideology. Yes they are self-defense.
It isn’t a fallacy to say murdering a fascist makes you like a fascist because fascists kill people who don’t think like them all the time. It’s part of their whole deal.In a nutshell, if it's already escalated to the point of open genocide, arguing to "be better" kinda reeks of bothsides to me.
If you feel the need to reduce yourself to the level of a fascist to win against a fascist, you’ve already lost. Political violence is not just a means to them, it’s a goal.
Also, fascism is more than just "killing people", and you fail to realize that. Political violence (against bigots) happens to be a goal for me too, and yet I am highly progressive. That is not fascism.
NRA did nothing wrong. Hope they go for Dugin himself too.
I don’t fail to realize that fascism is more than just killing people, you fail to realize that reducing yourself to their level won’t change anything. All it does is allow a fascist to now legitimately say that their own preemptive strikes are defending themselves against persecution from their opponents.
Political violence is a component of fascism. Engaging in your own political violence is acting like a fascist would. You see that yes?
This is why I have a problem with what you’re saying. It’s basically punching yourself in the face: fascists are bad, but acting like a fascist won’t mKe them go away, it’ll just draw attention to the fascist cause, which will draw more people to it. What’s the point?
But this looks more like the actions of the French Resistance (see a wikipedia link, which I assume to be "close enough" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Resistance))
Thought experiment: Would Joseph Goebbels have been a valid target of the French Resistance? What if his wife died in a bomb attack meant for Goebbels?
Dude, this is the first sign of any organized rebellion in Russia. And yeah, they're gonna kill people. It's what rebels do.
Peaceful rebellions are a pipe dream invented by Governments to discourage violent ones.
EDIT: Also, the Joy of Democracy is that the rulers can be overthrown non-violently. In all other government systems, violence is the only way to change power.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 24, 2022, 12:46:39 am
Killing fascists doesn't make someone a fascist because preemptive strikes indeed are self-defense when they are acticely harassing and attacking minorities. It's merely fighting back. Yes they will push back even harder but that just means they will get killed more.Preemptive strikes aren’t self-defense.Except not making preemptive strikes just leads them to keep existing and spreading their ideology. Yes they are self-defense.
It isn’t a fallacy to say murdering a fascist makes you like a fascist because fascists kill people who don’t think like them all the time. It’s part of their whole deal.In a nutshell, if it's already escalated to the point of open genocide, arguing to "be better" kinda reeks of bothsides to me.
If you feel the need to reduce yourself to the level of a fascist to win against a fascist, you’ve already lost. Political violence is not just a means to them, it’s a goal.
Also, fascism is more than just "killing people", and you fail to realize that. Political violence (against bigots) happens to be a goal for me too, and yet I am highly progressive. That is not fascism.
NRA did nothing wrong. Hope they go for Dugin himself too.
I don’t fail to realize that fascism is more than just killing people, you fail to realize that reducing yourself to their level won’t change anything. All it does is allow a fascist to now legitimately say that their own preemptive strikes are defending themselves against persecution from their opponents.
Political violence is a component of fascism. Engaging in your own political violence is acting like a fascist would. You see that yes?
This is why I have a problem with what you’re saying. It’s basically punching yourself in the face: fascists are bad, but acting like a fascist won’t mKe them go away, it’ll just draw attention to the fascist cause, which will draw more people to it. What’s the point?
Yes I do. However they did it first and there is no other way to deal with them so it's okay.
The point is to simply make them feel unsafe being open about it to force them underground. It doesn't make more people fascists or anything.
Peace will solve absolutely nothing, especially in Russia. The only way forward is for partisan groups to massacre government officials.
Post by: hector13 on August 24, 2022, 01:15:10 am
Equally so, it’s significant that the communists were brawling with Nazis… you know the fascists known for political violence? :p
I’ve seen you make this point about MLK and Malcolm X before and it’s… just… very wrong. MLK organized non-violent protests that got media coverage, that’s how he was effective. He stood by his non-violent ideals despite some of these protests being put down brutally by the authorities, as well as pressure he received personally from those authorities,and that’s why he’s still celebrated today, not because Malcolm X was in the wings threatening violence.
Further, if civil disobedience is so ineffective, why do organizations like Extinction Rebellion still engage in it today?
The answer is not “ecoterrorists” :p
Indeed, I’m pretty sure you suggested civil disobedience as a tool in a thread you made about people gluing themselves to art or something.
@Max: I’m sorry you feel that way.
The winner in the political violence stakes is the most violent. That means when they win and take the reins of power, the violence won’t end, the cycle just starts anew.
Political violence won’t solve anything, it ultimately just changes who gets persecuted for a while until someone else rises up to replace them.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 24, 2022, 01:28:32 am
It's the theory that Russia used to invade Ukraine.
It can also be easily twisted, as anyone can put whatever they like in the "because" portion to justify the killing. So, bad theory, maybe stop using that particular one?
War is Hell is sufficient. A Civil War upon Russian Government necessitating the killing of Government Officials and those who aid the Government is sufficient.
The National Republican Army has to pick targets that can't be denied. This is probably not their first attack, but rather the first one they could claim without contradiction.
@hector13: You're an idiot. Russians don't have the freedoms for non-violent protest to be effective. They'd just be signing up to be harassed, killed, or conscripted to die in Ukraine. The comparisons to the French Resistance are accurate, since Putin's Russia is basically as democratic as Nazi Germany.
They also weren't the ONLY violent resistance. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resistance_during_World_War_II) Bombs were a frequent tool of the German Resistance groups
I also feel it important to note that the Allies only knew about Nazi Germany's Auschwitz concentration camp due to the Polish Resistance. So yeah, we gotta support these guys, even if you personally might not like everything they do.
At this point, it's important SOMETHING is going on. And the Terrorists of today tend to mellow out and become the Politicians of tomorrow.
Also, I'm questioning the MLK & Malcolm X argument on moral grounds. While I think violence draws attention making non-violent actions more powerful, it's not a particularly moral position to take in a democracy. But Russia ain't a democracy.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 24, 2022, 01:39:34 am
@Max: I’m sorry you feel that way.The alternative is to let them kill minorities. I'm fine with the shoe ending up on the other foot and bigots getting persecuted because I despise them. Peace solves nothing. I used to support peaceful protest but now I am too jaded to believe in peace. The only solution is the full discreditation of the far-right as a whole. I would not support killing or imprisoning them if I believed they could be changed or confronted on their own terms, but I don't. Not anymore.
The winner in the political violence stakes is the most violent. That means when they win and take the reins of power, the violence won’t end, the cycle just starts anew.
Political violence won’t solve anything, it ultimately just changes who gets persecuted for a while until someone else rises up to replace them.
Is your only definition of fascism "political violence"? Because if no, then I am not one. If yes, it's a bullshit definition. I refuse to treat the people who want me dead with hugs rather than harassment.
The preemptive strike theory, under which it is ok to kill someone because they actively harass and attack minorities is a bad theory.Slippery slope argument. You think I value all people and ideologies equally. You are wrong. An action can be wrong depending on the target of said action. You are overgeneralizing.
It's the theory that Russia used to invade Ukraine.
It can also be easily twisted, as anyone can put whatever they like in the "because" portion to justify the killing. So, bad theory, maybe stop using that particular one?
Your second point I agree with but doesn't it contradict this?
The time for peaceful protest is over, at least in Russia. For America it's debatable and I'm not focusing on it. But here, the only way is to kill. Kill them like we killed Nazi occupants. The partisans were heroes, and so are these new partisans.
Post by: hector13 on August 24, 2022, 01:48:26 am
Even years after the fact, “enemies” of Russia get murdered by Russian agents, even in foreign countries as a message not to turn against the state. Putin won’t get overthrown by targeted assassinations, it requires widespread mass uprising that just won’t happen while he controls the media, and can effectively imprison, murder - or both! - anyone that tries to organize anything.
Edit:@Max
Political violence is a significant component of fascism, but obviously not the only one. I’m also not saying you’re a fascist for wanting to engage in political violence, just that it makes you like a fascist/no better than a fascist/something like that for wanting to.
I’m not saying you should hug a Nazi, nor am I saying you shouldn’t defend yourself, just that I don’t think the way you want to do it will be effective in achieving anything other than more violence, win or lose.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 24, 2022, 01:52:03 am
Russians don’t have the capacity to protest violently either. One fascist has been murdered, to what end? Nobody is being inspired to rise up, it’s being spun as a lovely young lady who was all about Russia being killed by enemy agents because of her dad’s loyalty to Russia.Nice deflection. That is a problem with Russian mentality, not violent protest as a method. If the Russian people ever radicalize enough again, then I'd much prefer for there to be an armed revolt than just some people standing around with signs. The former has far more of a chance of succeeding in this climate, since the government will simply ignore peaceful protests.
Even years after the fact, “enemies” of Russia get murdered by Russian agents, even in foreign countries as a message not to turn against the state. Putin won’t get overthrown by targeted assassinations, it requires widespread mass uprising that just won’t happen while he controls the media, and can effectively imprison, murder - or both! - anyone that tries to organize anything.
As for "to what end"... well, she deserved it.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 24, 2022, 02:00:17 am
So if murdering fascists is okay, is it okay for fascists to defend themselves against this mortal peril?
Mmmm, imagine trying to worm your way into both-sides'ing the idea of targeting fascists for having already committed crimes against humanity, as if they haven't already been doing this shit without the theat of partisan reprisal to give them an excuse. :V
Someone has to be the better person. Do you think that’ll be the fascists?
By all means defend yourself against the fash, violence is what they do, but once you cross the line into actively seeking them out to kill them, well… that sounds like something a fascist would do.
How do you defend yourself without killing your enemy? Seriously, how? Non-violent resistance, Gandhi style? It doesn't work when your enemy doesn't mind killing you.
Belarus 2020 is a good illustration of that approach. It must be the most pathetic failed revolution in the history of humanity. They had the majority of the nation on their side, They had streets of the capital full of people... They had numerous police and military officers switching sides. And yet they failed because there were not ready to fight for freedom.
And no, killing a serial killer doesn't turn you into a serial killer. It is not some Star Wars bullshit "kill the Emperor in rage and the Dark Side will win". The real world doesn't work this way.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 24, 2022, 02:17:21 am
Quote
Russians don’t have the capacity to protest violently either. One fascist has been murdered, to what end? Nobody is being inspired to rise up, it’s being spun as a lovely young lady who was all about Russia being killed by enemy agents because of her dad’s loyalty to Russia.
Assuming that NRA does exist (which is debatable).
Murder of Dugina (and attempted murder of her father) is an act of terrorism with a set of goals 1) Eliminate an enemy who hurts your nation 2) Scare other enemies (it is what terrorism is about). After all, their manifesto clearly says - stop cooperating with Putin's regime NOW or you WILL be among the targets. Make no mistake. It is plain, simple, classic terrorism
Murdering Dugina is not aimed at changing the minds of pro-Putin Russians or "inspiring" them to anything. They are an enemy to be destroyed, not a recruitment pool. So, it is irrelevant how will Russian propaganda portray her death.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 24, 2022, 02:21:08 am
Using a "terrorist group" about which noone heard anything until now and simultaneously blaming a random Ukrainian spy seems like a particularily lazy way to go about it though. Maybe he's losing his touch.
Post by: hector13 on August 24, 2022, 02:35:46 am
QuoteRussians don’t have the capacity to protest violently either. One fascist has been murdered, to what end? Nobody is being inspired to rise up, it’s being spun as a lovely young lady who was all about Russia being killed by enemy agents because of her dad’s loyalty to Russia.
Assuming that NRA does exist (which is debatable).
Murder of Dugina (and attempted murder of her father) is an act of terrorism with a set of goals 1) Eliminate an enemy who hurts your nation 2) Scare other enemies (it is what terrorism is about). After all, their manifesto clearly says - stop cooperating with Putin's regime NOW or you WILL be among the targets. Make no mistake. It is plain, simple, classic terrorism
Murdering Dugina is not aimed at changing the minds of pro-Putin Russians or "inspiring" them to anything. They are an enemy to be destroyed, not a recruitment pool. So, it is irrelevant how will Russian propaganda portray her death.
Do only pro-Putin Russians consume Russian media? Hearts and minds is the first step in any revolution.
So if murdering fascists is okay, is it okay for fascists to defend themselves against this mortal peril?
Mmmm, imagine trying to worm your way into both-sides'ing the idea of targeting fascists for having already committed crimes against humanity, as if they haven't already been doing this shit without the theat of partisan reprisal to give them an excuse. :V
Someone has to be the better person. Do you think that’ll be the fascists?
By all means defend yourself against the fash, violence is what they do, but once you cross the line into actively seeking them out to kill them, well… that sounds like something a fascist would do.
How do you defend yourself without killing your enemy? Seriously, how? Non-violent resistance, Gandhi style? It doesn't work when your enemy doesn't mind killing you.
Belarus 2020 is a good illustration of that approach. It must be the most pathetic failed revolution in the history of humanity. They had the majority of the nation on their side, They had streets of the capital full of people... They had numerous police and military officers switching sides. And yet they failed because there were not ready to fight for freedom.
And no, killing a serial killer doesn't turn you into a serial killer. It is not some Star Wars bullshit "kill the Emperor in rage and the Dark Side will win". The real world doesn't work this way.
I never once said defending yourself has to be non-violent. I said don’t seek out violence, ‘cause then you aren’t defending yourself.
That metaphor does not work. What I’m saying is engaging in political violence, funnily enough, won’t end political violence.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 24, 2022, 02:41:07 am
Honestly I dont get how can anyone think this is anything other than a false flag. Which not so coincidentally happens to be Putin's speciality; managing internal black ops are the one thing he's actually decent at.If they wanted to do a false flag, they would kill or destroy someone or something people actually cared about. Like a kindergarten, a school, an apartment building. And they would not contradict themselves like that. That would turn the people against their target. Putin being decent at false flags is actually a point against the false flag hypothesis.
Using a "terrorist group" about which noone heard anything until now and simultaneously blaming a random Ukrainian spy seems like a particularily lazy way to go about it though. Maybe he's losing his touch.
1. Except it would indeed be defending yourself, because they are attacking, and they attacked first.
I never once said defending yourself has to be non-violent. I said don’t seek out violence, ‘cause then you aren’t defending yourself.
That metaphor does not work. What I’m saying is engaging in political violence, funnily enough, won’t end political violence.
2. I don't really want to end political violence either, I stated my desires. Again, the time for being nice to the fascists is over.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 24, 2022, 03:07:49 am
Quote
What I’m saying is engaging in political violence, funnily enough, won’t end political violence.
Actually, it will. Once you eliminate those who are engaging in political violence against you, it will end.
You seem to treat Russia as a democratic country and try to apply the logic of a democratic country. Yes, if, let's say LGBT Americans will start killing radical Christian bigots it will only increase the amount of violence in the USA.
Post by: King Zultan on August 24, 2022, 03:29:28 am
Post by: McTraveller on August 24, 2022, 06:57:36 am
Also, as the quote says, when you can make people believe absurdities you can get them to commit atrocities.
The sad part is that ultimately it likely will require deadly force against those stirring up trouble. I don't envy the people who have to make that choice - to literally have to give up your life in the attempt to save others.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 24, 2022, 07:08:26 am
1) There is no tactical reason for these targets to die, so it probably wasn't Ukrainian, American or British Intelligence.
2) There is a false flag rational in that Russia loses someone of little value to the war effort in exchange for building up some sort of outrage that they can leverage for a formal declaration of war.
3) There is a more blatant Revolutionary reason: Leftists are showing their commitment to eliminating the Russian Far-Right.
The fact that Russia blames Ukraine backs means its is more likely to be a false flag or actual revolution. There have been reports of Partisan activity in Russia before now.
Ultimately, we're left to see what the National Republican Army does next.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 24, 2022, 07:34:21 am
Spoiler: manifesto (click to show/hide)
Are those guys real and not FSB's (or some other intelligence service) ruse or some clowns? At this point, I'd give like 10% of the probability that they are real. And it is perhaps too high because I actively want those to be real.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 24, 2022, 07:59:07 am
If anyone is interested, I found a decent (not perfect) translation of the manifesto of this NRABased if true. If something starts, I will fight for them. If they're real.Spoiler: manifesto (click to show/hide)
Are those guys real and not FSB's (or some other intelligence service) ruse or some clowns? At this point, I'd give like 10% of the probability that they are real. And it is perhaps too high because I actively want those to be real.
inhales a whole bag of hopium
Post by: brewer bob on August 24, 2022, 09:06:51 am
The Moscow ABC (https://avtonom.org/en/anarchist-black-cross) (Anarchist Black Cross (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anarchist_Black_Cross), a prisoner solidarity group) lists some of them in the anti-war section, in case if someone is interested (note: the prisoners are not necessarily anarchists, if it matters). The actions they're accused of are also mentioned there, and their prison addresses if you want to send letters to cheer them up (catch: they have to be written in Russian, but guess google translate will suffice).
You can find the list here. (https://wiki.avtonom.org/en/index.php/Category:Currently_imprisoned_in_Russia)
Post by: EuchreJack on August 24, 2022, 09:27:30 am
If anyone is interested, I found a decent (not perfect) translation of the manifesto of this NRASpoiler: manifesto (click to show/hide)
Are those guys real and not FSB's (or some other intelligence service) ruse or some clowns? At this point, I'd give like 10% of the probability that they are real. And it is perhaps too high because I actively want those to be real.
Maybe the translation makes it better, but it tracks with some of the positions declared by the former MP who revealed them and Russians that have left Russia because they disagree with Russia.
I understand it may sound silly to Ukraine, but I would give it much more than a 10% chance.
Post by: Lidku on August 24, 2022, 09:31:55 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 24, 2022, 09:49:29 am
So President Lukashenko just congratulated Ukraine's Independence today..And wished peaceful skies... literally when dozens of Russian missiles congratulate us from Belarusian territory. I heard 9 air raid sirens today
Post by: EuchreJack on August 24, 2022, 10:53:54 am
Let's also not forget about the "Freedom of Russia Legion" volunteer unit which is very real, fights on the frontline, and won't go anywhere no matter how the war will end. Those few hundreds are exactly what can be a basis for a future revolutionary army.
That is cool. I think that I heard about them, but not by name.
Post by: scriver on August 25, 2022, 07:30:54 am
To paraphrase Abigail Thorn here - When antifascists come for the fascists, the fascists have a choice, to give up their beliefs. They can go the rest of their lives and stop being one. They suddenly won't be best buddies with antifascists but they'll leave them alone. But if you find yourself in the target of the fascists, because of your identity, things you can't change, there's nothing you can do to please or compromise with fascists, except stop existing. If you're a political enemy of antifascism you can become a friend. If you're a political enemy of fascism, either they lose or you die.
This isn't how violence works out.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 25, 2022, 08:17:03 am
There is no other way. They cannot be saved. This unfortunate ideology, which we have put up with far too long, has proven to be too much of a danger to society to not crack down on.To paraphrase Abigail Thorn here - When antifascists come for the fascists, the fascists have a choice, to give up their beliefs. They can go the rest of their lives and stop being one. They suddenly won't be best buddies with antifascists but they'll leave them alone. But if you find yourself in the target of the fascists, because of your identity, things you can't change, there's nothing you can do to please or compromise with fascists, except stop existing. If you're a political enemy of antifascism you can become a friend. If you're a political enemy of fascism, either they lose or you die.
This isn't how violence works out.
Glory to the NRA. Hundreds more must die like Dugina did. Treat them like the partisans treated the Nazi occupants. I don't even care as much for the American fascists anymore. Putinist blood must flow.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 25, 2022, 09:33:02 am
But when dealing with actual fascists, especially ones in power, there are no no-violent options. In this situation, pacifists with their "we shouldn't be like them and violence is bad" only help the evil to triumph.
Also, we are beating a dead horse...
In context of this thread, I welcome any violence within Russia, I don't care who will cause trouble: Anarchists, Stalinists, Islamists, Liberals, baby-eating Satanists. Any trouble in Russia will save Ukrainian lives.
Post by: MorleyDev on August 25, 2022, 09:44:50 am
It simply has to be denied, via first exposing and preventing those who follow it from being able to hold positions of power or respect via both electorate (don't f*cking vote for them, deny them the room to speak) and legally mandated means (making membership in the neo-nazi organizations illegal and cracking down on them, and recognizing that freedom of speech doesn't grant freedom to use speech to infringe the rights of others and so making hate speech illegal).
If that fails then you really are left with violent rebellion, complicity, death (or a combination thereof) as your only options.
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 25, 2022, 01:34:06 pm
Spoiler: the list broken into two relevant parts (click to show/hide)
As usual I put probably too much effort into underlining all the ways in which the absolute worst-case scenario can be infinitely more of a slow decaying death of global civilization as we know it, and not something as blase as global nuclear war.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 25, 2022, 03:37:45 pm
Note that even if they will somehow stop or severely limit British\American\German\etc aid to Ukraine, Poland and the Baltic states will continue to provide support. It is simple self-preservation. Czechia and Slovakia will likely continue to assist, too.
So forget about any options with full annexation. Perhaps one more major city after a ridiculous amount of resources spent to achieve this goal. Russia can't move further without using WMD (the frontline is static for more than a month).
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 25, 2022, 04:47:10 pm
If all of Europe save Poland or Slovakia drops out, the US will fly weapons into Poland or Slovakia for distribution. If everybody except the US drops out, the US will fly straight into Ukraine and DARE Russia to interfere. Not only is the US perfectly willing to spend treasure like water in a fight that is increasingly being seen as "The 2022 version of 1938 Czechloslovakia", more and more it is becoming a thing of national honor.
This is a supply line that can not be cut.
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 25, 2022, 04:52:54 pm
Post by: hector13 on August 25, 2022, 05:04:12 pm
Eh, you had Trump once, you may have Trump or Trump-like again.
This is my main concern from at least this side of the Atlantic. Trump loves Putin, and he’s an isolationist, and I don’t see why he wouldn’t run in 2024; even if he gets convicted in his various lawsuits, that’s not a disqualifying factor.
Regardless of that, Putin wants more troops. According to the Beeb, 137,000 extra, pushing active troops above 1,000,000 when they get trained, which is supposed to take at least 4 months.
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 25, 2022, 05:13:20 pm
Post by: hector13 on August 25, 2022, 05:20:23 pm
The mid-terms may be a better indicator.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 25, 2022, 09:47:46 pm
Post by: hector13 on August 25, 2022, 10:23:18 pm
Post by: Eric Blank on August 25, 2022, 10:35:46 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on August 26, 2022, 12:13:35 am
Isn't Trump getting sued to hell and back, and his lawyers are now shitty? Can't run for president if you're in prison.
To be fair, lawyers that want to keep their jobs have to mostly follow the orders of their clients.
Trump certainly had decent legal counsel over the years, but he Fired them all.
Post by: hector13 on August 26, 2022, 02:04:18 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 26, 2022, 03:35:10 am
From my biased Ukrainian point of view, we don't need Trump to go back to an American president that will mishandle Russia badly. Any new one can make the situation worse. Let's look at the recent ones.
1) Bush 1.0: The guy who "wisely" decided to not finish communists and end the cold without trying to bring Soviet criminals to justice. What the America-led Western world did in 1991 is like alternative History in which the Nazi party was removed from power in 1944 and the Allies left Germany intact in exchange for some minor democratic reforms with no Nurnberg.
Also, as a Ukrainian, I remember Bush's speech in front of the parliament of Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republicf that can be summarized with "Please, please, please, don't leave the USSR"
2)Clinton
Largely ignored Yeltsin's coup in 1993 and war crimes of the first Chechen War. Those were good enough to restart the Cold War and end it properly.
3) Bush 2.0
Oh... Where do I start? Ignored War crimes of the second Chechen War and resulting genocide. Ignored the rapid destruction of the free press in Russia. Invaded Iraq, creating an oil price hike that gave Russia sooooooo much money. And while I understand that he was a lame duck in 2008, USA's reaction to Putin's first open aggression was... tame.
4) Obama
Well, he started with a "reset" of relationships with Russia. I remember all too well Lavrov and Clinton smiling and pushing a big red button months after the aggression against Georgia. Then, when shit hit the fan in Syria, Obama demonstrated that USA's new reaction to ongoing genocide with WMD is drawing red lines.
There was a reaction to the first post-WW2 annexation in Europe but it was very... careful.
5)
Trump. Funnily enough, while being Putin's admirer, Trump didn't help Russia much. Not because he didn't want to but because other branches of the U.S. government didn't let him. The only major thing is breaking the deal with Iran, which allowed Russia to get more oil money and mitigate the effects of the sanction.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 26, 2022, 04:03:57 am
I still maintain that group called the NRA launching a rebellion in Russia is the Best Case Scenario. Republicans don't fuck with the NRA.
(The world "Republican" also appears in their name, for added confusion that mostly forces Republicans to keep funding the Ukrainians).
Like seriously, any Republican that signs a bill that could decrease funding to the NRA is basically committing Political Suicide. SO GREAT NEWS!!! :D :D
Post by: King Zultan on August 26, 2022, 04:25:39 am
Also I have a feeling that the NRA thing in Russia doesn't actually exist.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 26, 2022, 04:40:15 am
Why are people bringing US political shit into a thread about Ukraine and Russia?Of course it exists! Who else is going to advocate for Russians to Bear Arms?
Also I have a feeling that the NRA thing in Russia doesn't actually exist.
Post by: hector13 on August 26, 2022, 09:02:06 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 26, 2022, 09:15:16 am
I highly doubt anyone has the balls to put him in prison no matter how many crimes he commits. Ignoring his cultists going berserk, theres the fact that putting one wealthy and powerful man behind bars in a system that protects them opens up the possibility of every other politician and businessman whose committed crimes facing jail time, which theyll avoid at all costs, because theyre all criminals to some extentFair enough.
Post by: lemon10 on August 27, 2022, 01:29:42 am
I highly doubt anyone has the balls to put him in prison no matter how many crimes he commits. Ignoring his cultists going berserk, theres the fact that putting one wealthy and powerful man behind bars in a system that protects them opens up the possibility of every other politician and businessman whose committed crimes facing jail time, which theyll avoid at all costs, because theyre all criminals to some extentNah.
As long as a rich person acts like a proper rich person or a politician acts like a normal politician they are effectively immune to the law.
Trump right now? Not acting like a proper rich person and certainly isn't acting like a normal politician, so the actual rich people or politicians aren't going to be worried.
He might get away anyways, but its not going to be because Bezos fears that the same thing could happen to him.
E: To put it in a better way:
The game has rules, and as long as you play by the rules you are safe. Given the biggest and best rule is #1 Be Rich its pretty easy for rich people to follow them. But there are other rules like #2 Don't be obvious about breaking the law, and #3 Get a good lawyer and listen to them.
Trump is rich sure, but given his flagrant disregard for basically every other one he's out of the game, and everyone in it? Yeah, they aren't going to be worried about his fate.
Post by: King Zultan on August 27, 2022, 02:10:27 am
But to they advocate for Russians to Arm the Bears?Why are people bringing US political shit into a thread about Ukraine and Russia?Of course it exists! Who else is going to advocate for Russians to Bear Arms?
Also I have a feeling that the NRA thing in Russia doesn't actually exist.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 27, 2022, 07:25:06 am
Bu of course! Every man, women, child and bear should be armed!But to they advocate for Russians to Arm the Bears?Why are people bringing US political shit into a thread about Ukraine and Russia?Of course it exists! Who else is going to advocate for Russians to Bear Arms?
Also I have a feeling that the NRA thing in Russia doesn't actually exist.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 28, 2022, 01:25:14 am
If you have any friends that believe that this war is because NATO-expansion, geopolitics, oligarch's interests, etc... Show them this video. It is also a good explanation of why surrender is not an option for Ukraine.
Post by: brewer bob on August 28, 2022, 04:45:21 am
(...and some say calling them orcs "dehumanizes" them. No need to dehumanize them, they do it themself.)
Post by: King Zultan on August 29, 2022, 03:26:16 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 29, 2022, 08:24:14 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 29, 2022, 08:32:39 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 29, 2022, 08:52:35 am
Post by: martinuzz on August 29, 2022, 10:35:03 am
Analysts expect Ukraine's counter offensive will include air strikes, were before, Ukraine mostly if not only used artillery and missile attacks at the southern front.
I hope they kill every Russian and collaborator they can get their crosshairs on.
Post by: Magmacube_tr on August 29, 2022, 03:51:27 pm
If some revolution does happen, I wish to see the Red Square getting a new coat of paint and hear a ballad of screams. They should publically execute all of the Russian oligarchs and their kin. Man, woman, children. Young and the elderly.
Sure, it would be cruel to kill kids. But in my almost entire 19 years of life in the Middle Fucking East, I know better than be "moral" and "sensible" in a situation like this. You go all out. You set a vicious example. No holding back. No humanity shown. Those pretty sentimental things are afforded to ones who have afforded them to you first when they should've. Showing humanity is just a waste on such people.
It would be a good little sidenote in history that future generations can use to taunt their own tyrants. A note written with blood.
As is long due.
Post by: Great Order on August 29, 2022, 03:58:32 pm
No, let them languish in a cell for life. It's less radicalising and, on top of that, the punishment doesn't stop. Death's a one-and-done thing, spending 50 years in prison?
And kids? Seriously? Fine, you can be the one braining toddlers on trees in the name of your indiscriminate crusade. Just hope you don't want therapy after, and I hope you're equally as accepting of someone killing you, your kids and your nieces and nephews if your dad or granddad or whoever turns out to be a psycho.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 29, 2022, 04:17:11 pm
Enjoying the suffering of other people IS NOT OK. Even enjoying imagining their sufferings IS NOT OK. Sometimes it is emotionally unavoidable, believe me, I experienced rage and hate many many times and mind becomes... "creative". But I know that nothing good can come out of sadism.
And public torture and murdering of children (an act, that is always criminal and immoral) to scare potential future criminals don't work. It was tried many, many times.
BTW, Russia did try exactly that with corrupt imperialist oligarch war criminals, a little more than 100 years ago. Killed all of them who failed to flee. Didn't end well for anyone.
Post by: Magmacube_tr on August 29, 2022, 05:04:20 pm
Now that I cooled off, the fact that killing kids is a bad thing returned to me. Sorry...
The thing that angers me this much is that tyranny, in all shapes and forms, just keeps happening! It. Just. Keeps. Happening. It doesn't ever ends! It stops somewhere then starts on some other place! Why is there not something to just STOP it, you know? Are we doomed to constantly having to deal with these few absolutely shitty people shitting all over our green earth? And we are just supposed to exist with this?
Fuck that.
Post by: Jopax on August 29, 2022, 05:06:55 pm
Like seriously dude, this is fucking Russia you're talking about, the textbook example of "Bloody revolution ends up making things shit for everyone involved and then some"
Post by: MorleyDev on August 29, 2022, 05:18:32 pm
Post by: hector13 on August 29, 2022, 05:22:18 pm
Post by: Magmacube_tr on August 29, 2022, 05:33:55 pm
To quote Doctor Who: "You just want cruelty to beget cruelty. You're not superior to people who were cruel to you. You're just a whole bunch of new cruel people. A whole bunch of new cruel people, being cruel to some other people, who'll end up being cruel to you."
Huh? I guess I really have no retort to that. Should've been obvious. The cycle of cruelty. Maybe not doing the killing will be the thing that sets the example.
But it all so easy to for the cycle to start again if it is not written in words that people cannot ignore. And victories taken with such humility are not remembered as much as ones marked with terror.
I guess that's the main catch here. A different form of retribution that is still widely proclaimed. Maybe the Middle East got to my head.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 29, 2022, 09:51:33 pm
Why put him in prison? There are plenty of ways of slowly killing people. Why imprison them instead making them beg for death?No. As ruthless as I am, I would not kill their children. They are innocent, and I don't kill innocents.
If some revolution does happen, I wish to see the Red Square getting a new coat of paint and hear a ballad of screams. They should publically execute all of the Russian oligarchs and their kin. Man, woman, children. Young and the elderly.
Sure, it would be cruel to kill kids. But in my almost entire 19 years of life in the Middle Fucking East, I know better than be "moral" and "sensible" in a situation like this. You go all out. You set a vicious example. No holding back. No humanity shown. Those pretty sentimental things are afforded to ones who have afforded them to you first when they should've. Showing humanity is just a waste on such people.
It would be a good little sidenote in history that future generations can use to taunt their own tyrants. A note written with blood.
As is long due.
Enjoying the suffering of other people IS NOT OK. Even enjoying imagining their sufferings IS NOT OK. Sometimes it is emotionally unavoidable, believe me, I experienced rage and hate many many times and mind becomes... "creative". But I know that nothing good can come out of sadism.I do want to slowly torture Putin and the Russian oligarchs to death over several days, however. Or just shoot them. Whatever. Their happiness or suffering holds literally zero moral vaue to me at this point. As long as they all die...
I mean, it's not like Russia has a long and fairly bloody history of exactly what you're calling for happening and then the new regime is generally just as bad if not outright worse.There is absolutely no other way here. The only way is to kill them all and deport their families. Peaceful protest won't do shit even if half of the city population somehow is convinced to do so. Peace was never an option. Historical precedent is worthless, you need to look at the facts on the ground.
Like seriously dude, this is fucking Russia you're talking about, the textbook example of "Bloody revolution ends up making things shit for everyone involved and then some"
To quote Doctor Who: "You just want cruelty to beget cruelty. You're not superior to people who were cruel to you. You're just a whole bunch of new cruel people. A whole bunch of new cruel people, being cruel to some other people, who'll end up being cruel to you. The only way anyone can live in peace is if they're prepared to forgive. Why don't you break the cycle?"Because it is not possible to make peace with them. I would choose to break the cycle if it was possible. But alas.
It's also not about method. I never said I wasn't as much or more cruel to my enemies than them. But at least I respect human rights. That is what matters.
To the doves here, give me a single reason to believe a peaceful revolution is at all viable. What the fuck do you all propose? For us to hug and sing "Imagine" with the oligarchs?
Post by: hector13 on August 29, 2022, 09:56:03 pm
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 29, 2022, 10:16:08 pm
Rise up and protest. They can’t throw everyone in jail.What a pile of bullshit, they will just ignore protests, even on massive scales. You are a child. That's not how authoritarian governments work.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world
Post by: hector13 on August 29, 2022, 10:21:53 pm
Rise up and protest. They can’t throw everyone in jail.What a pile of bullshit, they will just ignore protests, even on massive scales. You are a child. That's not how authoritarian governments work.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world
Never mind we’ve had the talking past each other thing already we don’t need to do again.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 29, 2022, 10:33:35 pm
Actually, yes. They weren't as entrenched as the Putinist regime is.Rise up and protest. They can’t throw everyone in jail.What a pile of bullshit, they will just ignore protests, even on massive scales. You are a child. That's not how authoritarian governments work.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190513-it-only-takes-35-of-people-to-change-the-world
Clearly the authoritarian governments that fell to non-violent protests were not authoritarian enough?
You and your fellow Imagine singers just don't understand.
Post by: hector13 on August 29, 2022, 10:44:18 pm
What I don’t understand is what you think happens after Putin and his cronies are murdered. What do you think will happen?
Post by: MorleyDev on August 29, 2022, 11:29:23 pm
Ideally, assuming successful revolution of some kind, rather than mass executions you'd have Russian Neuburg Trials, establish the criminality under the new system and use that as legal precedent, imprison them for their gross breaches of said legal precedant. When not dealing with immediate threat, I tend to regard death over imprisonment as vengeance vs justice, death is for people's satisfaction and a legal system isn't there for people's satisfaction.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 29, 2022, 11:30:54 pm
Apparently we do.I don't really know either. I'm willing to take the risk.
What I don’t understand is what you think happens after Putin and his cronies are murdered. What do you think will happen?
Peaceful protest largely relies upon you being dealing with people that largely give a shit. Ghandi himself said that what he did wouldn't have worked with the German Nazi Party, for example.Honestly, now that I calmed down a bit, I'd be fine with that too. As long as they are removed from Russian society and politics. That's what matters to me.
Ideally, assuming successful revolution of some kind, rather than mass executions you'd have Russian Neuburg Trials, establish the criminality under the new system and use that as legal precedent, imprison them for their gross breaches of said legal precedant. When not dealing with immediate threat, I tend to regard death over imprisonment as vengeance vs justice, death is for people's satisfaction and a legal system isn't there for people's satisfaction.
Post by: bloop_bleep on August 29, 2022, 11:50:05 pm
No, of course do not kill innocent people. People are responsible for their own actions and nothing else. It is unacceptable, it is not even on the scale between ideal solutions and practical solutions.
Post by: hector13 on August 30, 2022, 12:04:25 am
Apparently we do.I don't really know either. I'm willing to take the risk.
What I don’t understand is what you think happens after Putin and his cronies are murdered. What do you think will happen?
What makes you think a violent uprising will be more successful than a non-violent one, given that Putin controls all the apparatus to put a violent uprising down, from law enforcement, to the military and intelligence services?
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 30, 2022, 12:25:42 am
What makes you think a non-violent uprising will succeed at all?Apparently we do.I don't really know either. I'm willing to take the risk.
What I don’t understand is what you think happens after Putin and his cronies are murdered. What do you think will happen?
What makes you think a violent uprising will be more successful than a non-violent one, given that Putin controls all the apparatus to put a violent uprising down, from law enforcement, to the military and intelligence services?
If the people become radicalized enough, I feel a violent revolt will be more likely to succeed, especially if part of the army and governors side with the rebels.
Post by: hector13 on August 30, 2022, 12:41:10 am
What makes you think a non-violent uprising will succeed at all?Apparently we do.I don't really know either. I'm willing to take the risk.
What I don’t understand is what you think happens after Putin and his cronies are murdered. What do you think will happen?
What makes you think a violent uprising will be more successful than a non-violent one, given that Putin controls all the apparatus to put a violent uprising down, from law enforcement, to the military and intelligence services?
If the people become radicalized enough, I feel a violent revolt will be more likely to succeed, especially if part of the army and governors side with the rebels.
Why would they side with the rebels when they’re being paid by the government? Equally so, radicalized people don’t magically become de-radicalized when they win. If there’s factional disputes, theey’ll turn on each other, too.
Non-violent uprisings have advantages over violent ones, as per the article I linked earlier:
- More people will be able to take part because it’s not limited to healthy people able and willing to engage in violence.
- Able to be organized and discussed in the open because you’re not talking about engaging in violence against the government, plus no need to source weapons.
- Security personnel may be less inclined to put down a non-violent protest by force because they’re not being violent, plus the risk of hurting loved ones because of the aforementioned “open to all” nature of non-violent protest.
- Media coverage will be harder to spin against the protesters if they’re non-violent, compared to a violent one. Equally so, violence against non-violent protesters is going to be much harder to justify in the media, even if it’s state-controlled. Word of mouth from protesters and observers will get around
I think non-violent protests are harder to put down than violent ones. A violent protest justifies a violent response. A non-violent protest will probably get more support if it’s put down violently, which rather defeats the purpose of putting it down in the first place.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 30, 2022, 02:11:09 am
1.1 Armies do betray governments during revolutions.What makes you think a non-violent uprising will succeed at all?Apparently we do.I don't really know either. I'm willing to take the risk.
What I don’t understand is what you think happens after Putin and his cronies are murdered. What do you think will happen?
What makes you think a violent uprising will be more successful than a non-violent one, given that Putin controls all the apparatus to put a violent uprising down, from law enforcement, to the military and intelligence services?
If the people become radicalized enough, I feel a violent revolt will be more likely to succeed, especially if part of the army and governors side with the rebels.
Why would they side with the rebels when they’re being paid by the government? Equally so, radicalized people don’t magically become de-radicalized when they win. If there’s factional disputes, theey’ll turn on each other, too.
Non-violent uprisings have advantages over violent ones, as per the article I linked earlier:
- More people will be able to take part because it’s not limited to healthy people able and willing to engage in violence.
- Able to be organized and discussed in the open because you’re not talking about engaging in violence against the government, plus no need to source weapons.
- Security personnel may be less inclined to put down a non-violent protest by force because they’re not being violent, plus the risk of hurting loved ones because of the aforementioned “open to all” nature of non-violent protest.
- Media coverage will be harder to spin against the protesters if they’re non-violent, compared to a violent one. Equally so, violence against non-violent protesters is going to be much harder to justify in the media, even if it’s state-controlled. Word of mouth from protesters and observers will get around
I think non-violent protests are harder to put down than violent ones. A violent protest justifies a violent response. A non-violent protest will probably get more support if it’s put down violently, which rather defeats the purpose of putting it down in the first place.
1.2 Well tough shit I guess but we can handle that.
2.1 More people might be able to take part, but it won't do shit because the government will just ignore them.
2.2 They did put down non-violent protests and they will do it again. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing again repeatedly and expecting a different result.
2.3 The media does a good job at spinning non-violent protestors as rabble-rousers anyways. Fuck the media, just kill them all.
3. There will be a violent response anyways. You know fuck all about the Russian government, clearly.
Good job, your points helped me articulate why I am anti-peaceful-"revolution".
Kill.
Post by: hector13 on August 30, 2022, 02:12:24 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 30, 2022, 02:36:43 am
There are ZERO authoritarian regimes that were removed without violence or threat of violence. A huge crowd that goes out to demand change, works only when people in power understand that there WILL BE a violent answer to violence or even a violent answer to ignoring demands. Also, most of "velvet" or "colored" revolutions had partial support from people in army\police\special forces\etc
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 30, 2022, 02:42:54 am
Good luck against the trained soldiers then, I guess.
The thing you're missing here: an Authoritarian government is going to respond to any challenge to its rule with said trained soldiers. That's literally Max's entire point, that non-violent resistance only has a CHANCE of working in countries that actually give a shit about what their people think.
Your point that the odds of violent resistance has a low chance of succeeding is reasonable, but you have to understand that what Max is saying here is that in countries like this, the violent option is the one more likely to do anything.
Imagine if you will a government that will deploy soldiers to gun down any protest against its regime. Now imagine how that's likely to go if the protestors being shot have nothing but signs to hold up vs. if they came expecting a fight from the beginning. If the government is going to just murder you in cold blood for speaking up either way, what do you think are your chances if you just stand there and take a bullet to the face instead of shooting back? The odds may be low, but zero is a pretty low bar to clear here.
We already have a near-example of this difference here in the US despite being a country that is obstinately a democracy, where armed protests have generally gotten a much less hostile response from police. This example IS muddled by the fact that the armed protests tend to be right-wing and the cops themselves are right-wing, but if we didn't have our pesky partisan clusterfuck fucking things up and the police attitude was consistent, I would still expect armed protests to either be given more leeway if that consistency was in the "please don't shoot us like you don't shoot them" direction, or be harder for police to quell if things went the "please shoot them like you shoot us" direction instead.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 30, 2022, 03:19:04 am
Post by: King Zultan on August 30, 2022, 03:40:47 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 30, 2022, 04:43:52 am
It may take many years but I see no other possible outcome for Russia.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on August 30, 2022, 06:24:19 am
Post by: Strongpoint on August 30, 2022, 07:30:34 am
September has the potential to be the deadliest month to date. Offensives aren't safe business...
Post by: MorleyDev on August 30, 2022, 10:24:01 am
Post by: Great Order on August 30, 2022, 10:28:17 am
Post by: KittyTac on August 30, 2022, 10:48:44 am
Post by: Lidku on August 30, 2022, 10:51:09 am
Good luck against the trained soldiers then, I guess.
Considering how bad Russia has been throughout this entire war and how undersupplied they are due to sanctions... I don't see how you can come to any inference that any Russian insurgents against the current Russian government, wouldn't have a half-way decent chance..
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 30, 2022, 11:20:44 am
Considering how bad Russia has been throughout this entire war and how undersupplied they are due to sanctions... I don't see how you can come to any inference that any Russian insurgents against the current Russian government, wouldn't have a half-way decent chance..
To be fair, suppressing mundane oppressed citizens and actually fighting a war are two different roles, and authoritarian regimes tend to have a lot more experience with the former. Same with how a military can have different effectiveness in a straightforward slugfest compared to facing an insurgency, or historically how a force might dominant at ground warfare yet have poor naval performance (or vice-versa), etc.
Post by: hector13 on August 30, 2022, 12:55:12 pm
Good luck against the trained soldiers then, I guess.
The thing you're missing here: an Authoritarian government is going to respond to any challenge to its rule with said trained soldiers. That's literally Max's entire point, that non-violent resistance only has a CHANCE of working in countries that actually give a shit about what their people think.
Your point that the odds of violent resistance has a low chance of succeeding is reasonable, but you have to understand that what Max is saying here is that in countries like this, the violent option is the one more likely to do anything.
Imagine if you will a government that will deploy soldiers to gun down any protest against its regime. Now imagine how that's likely to go if the protestors being shot have nothing but signs to hold up vs. if they came expecting a fight from the beginning. If the government is going to just murder you in cold blood for speaking up either way, what do you think are your chances if you just stand there and take a bullet to the face instead of shooting back? The odds may be low, but zero is a pretty low bar to clear here.
We already have a near-example of this difference here in the US despite being a country that is obstinately a democracy, where armed protests have generally gotten a much less hostile response from police. This example IS muddled by the fact that the armed protests tend to be right-wing and the cops themselves are right-wing, but if we didn't have our pesky partisan clusterfuck fucking things up and the police attitude was consistent, I would still expect armed protests to either be given more leeway if that consistency was in the "please don't shoot us like you don't shoot them" direction, or be harder for police to quell if things went the "please shoot them like you shoot us" direction instead.
And my point is that violent uprisings don’t work that well either, and even if they do manage their short-term objective of listing someone from power, you now have leaders that have used violence to achieve their position and are thus going to use violence to maintain that power, you have a precedent set that all it takes to win power is to be be more violent than the last person, and various groups of people who are now being oppressed because they were fighting against the winners, whose only option now is to use violence in return.
It is self-defeating at best.
Take Syria. Armed uprising in 2011, still fighting a civil war 11 years hence, the groups that are fighting the government are also fighting amongst themselves because while they may share the goal of ousting the incumbent, they all have different ideas of what should happen afterward. That sounds really constructive and conducive to a healthy situation at the war’s (eventual?) conclusion.
Take Libya. Armed uprising in 2011 against Gaddafi succeeded after almost a year of fighting. Some groups refused to disarm, causing tensions, elections were held in 2014 and various groups supported by various foreign influences got upset with each other over the results and the aftermath, and a further 6 years of fighting ensued. Elections due later this year.
Take Tunisia. A country considered among the most repressive in the world in 2011, 4 weeks of protest resulted in the authoritarian leader fleeing to Saudi Arabia. 11 years hence there is still work to be done, but there’s a bit less outright violence than Syria and Libya.
Tunisia may be an ideal in terms of how it non-violent protest turns out, but it does seem to have more pleasant outcomes than violence when it does work.
But whatever, kill away. If the Russians are fighting each other they’ll be too busy to fight anyone else.
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 30, 2022, 01:02:32 pm
Post by: hector13 on August 30, 2022, 01:17:41 pm
Or are we just defining success as murdering the incumbents and their allies, and caring nothing for what happens after?
Post by: Il Palazzo on August 30, 2022, 01:27:28 pm
Unpopular war. Armed uprising based on grand ideals (and ample Western support, natch). Russians fighting amongst each other. The rebels winning. The rebels proceeding to invade their neighbours within a couple years. The rebels destroying the economy to the point of starvation. The rebels enacting a reign of terror exceeding the previous regime's.
Yes, it's the wonderful Bolshevik revolution. But the Tsar is no more, so it's a success, right? Besides, this time it'll work out better, I'm sure.
Post by: Quarque on August 30, 2022, 01:46:42 pm
As a Russian, I'm sorry for the crimes my people inflicted on the people of Ukraine. Whenever I talk to an Ukrainian on the internet, I profusely apologize if the subject comes up. I'm really guilty.I sympathise with the sentiment, but you're no more guilty than any other fellow human being in this mess. I feel sorry for ordinary Russians who don't want this - you're a victim of a horrible police state ruled by thugs.
Wish I had half the courage to start any sort of revolution if I was in your position. To be honest I would probably chicken out and attempt to flee the country.
Post by: hector13 on August 30, 2022, 01:59:23 pm
As a Russian, I'm sorry for the crimes my people inflicted on the people of Ukraine. Whenever I talk to an Ukrainian on the internet, I profusely apologize if the subject comes up. I'm really guilty.I sympathise with the sentiment, but you're no more guilty than any other fellow human being in this mess. I feel sorry for ordinary Russians who don't want this - you're a victim of a horrible police state ruled by thugs.
Wish I had half the courage to start any sort of revolution if I was in your position. To be honest I would probably chicken out and attempt to flee the country.
Nobody in the thread has the courage to start a revolution either, that’s why they’re in the thread talking about it. ::)
You don’t have to be in a country to actually do anything in the country either. Erdogan blamed a Turkish cleric for the “coup attempt” a few years ago. The Dalai Lama has been exiled for years and he’s still doing good for Tibet.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 30, 2022, 02:23:05 pm
As a Russian, I'm sorry for the crimes my people inflicted on the people of Ukraine. Whenever I talk to an Ukrainian on the internet, I profusely apologize if the subject comes up. I'm really guilty.I sometimes wonder what would I do if MY nation would go crazy... If I would be among 10(5? 2? 1?)% of sane ones among fascist hysteria
I won't tell you to not feel guilty, if anything, as a Ukrainian, I would love to see more of this coming from Russians but...
Ask yourself are you of the same nation as them? Perhaps it is time to decide that they are not Russians... or that you are not a Russian. Are they really your people to willingly share the collective guilt? In the end, you are the one who decides who are your people and who are not. What makes you one of them? Mother language? Citizenship? Place of Birth? It is not enough. Nationality is about a person's set of ideas and I doubt that your set is very similar to those people's.
With you being 20 years old, Your personal guilt is minimal. You didn't quite participate in the creation of this political system by action or inaction.
In any case, you have a long hard road ahead. I don't envy you.
Post by: KittyTac on August 30, 2022, 09:54:38 pm
See, I like Russian history and culture to an extent. I just really hate the government and a large chunk of the population. And I disagree with your definition of nationality. It's ethnic, not ideological. I could renounce my citizenship and move to Germany and I would still be clearly and irreversibly Russian.As a Russian, I'm sorry for the crimes my people inflicted on the people of Ukraine. Whenever I talk to an Ukrainian on the internet, I profusely apologize if the subject comes up. I'm really guilty.I sometimes wonder what would I do if MY nation would go crazy... If I would be among 10(5? 2? 1?)% of sane ones among fascist hysteria
I won't tell you to not feel guilty, if anything, as a Ukrainian, I would love to see more of this coming from Russians but...
Ask yourself are you of the same nation as them? Perhaps it is time to decide that they are not Russians... or that you are not a Russian. Are they really your people to willingly share the collective guilt? In the end, you are the one who decides who are your people and who are not. What makes you one of them? Mother language? Citizenship? Place of Birth? It is not enough. Nationality is about a person's set of ideas and I doubt that your set is very similar to those people's.
With you being 20 years old, Your personal guilt is minimal. You didn't quite participate in the creation of this political system by action or inaction.
In any case, you have a long hard road ahead. I don't envy you.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 30, 2022, 10:26:54 pm
In what way is endless civil war a success?Look, we have to take the risk, it's better than leaving Putin in power. If only the Russian people realized that.
Or are we just defining success as murdering the incumbents and their allies, and caring nothing for what happens after?
Hey, why these weird Arab examples? Take Russia! Check this out:Except the revolution had many democratic elements and was hijacked by the Bolshevik faction. I am a Menshevik demsoc larper. So yes I say try again.
Unpopular war. Armed uprising based on grand ideals (and ample Western support, natch). Russians fighting amongst each other. The rebels winning. The rebels proceeding to invade their neighbours within a couple years. The rebels destroying the economy to the point of starvation. The rebels enacting a reign of terror exceeding the previous regime's.
Yes, it's the wonderful Bolshevik revolution. But the Tsar is no more, so it's a success, right? Besides, this time it'll work out better, I'm sure.
Post by: hector13 on August 30, 2022, 11:04:36 pm
In what way is endless civil war a success?Look, we have to take the risk, it's better than leaving Putin in power. If only the Russian people realized that.
Or are we just defining success as murdering the incumbents and their allies, and caring nothing for what happens after?
The only thing that’s going to beat Putin in the violence stakes is something worse than Putin. Don’t wish that on yourself.
Quote
Hey, why these weird Arab examples? Take Russia! Check this out:Except the revolution had many democratic elements and was hijacked by the Bolshevik faction. I am a Menshevik demsoc larper. So yes I say try again.
Unpopular war. Armed uprising based on grand ideals (and ample Western support, natch). Russians fighting amongst each other. The rebels winning. The rebels proceeding to invade their neighbours within a couple years. The rebels destroying the economy to the point of starvation. The rebels enacting a reign of terror exceeding the previous regime's.
Yes, it's the wonderful Bolshevik revolution. But the Tsar is no more, so it's a success, right? Besides, this time it'll work out better, I'm sure.
Obviously history could never repeat itself :p
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 30, 2022, 11:27:02 pm
1. Prove it.In what way is endless civil war a success?Look, we have to take the risk, it's better than leaving Putin in power. If only the Russian people realized that.
Or are we just defining success as murdering the incumbents and their allies, and caring nothing for what happens after?
The only thing that’s going to beat Putin in the violence stakes is something worse than Putin. Don’t wish that on yourself.QuoteHey, why these weird Arab examples? Take Russia! Check this out:Except the revolution had many democratic elements and was hijacked by the Bolshevik faction. I am a Menshevik demsoc larper. So yes I say try again.
Unpopular war. Armed uprising based on grand ideals (and ample Western support, natch). Russians fighting amongst each other. The rebels winning. The rebels proceeding to invade their neighbours within a couple years. The rebels destroying the economy to the point of starvation. The rebels enacting a reign of terror exceeding the previous regime's.
Yes, it's the wonderful Bolshevik revolution. But the Tsar is no more, so it's a success, right? Besides, this time it'll work out better, I'm sure.
Obviously history could never repeat itself :p
2. It could but I am willing to take risks.
Post by: hector13 on August 30, 2022, 11:57:52 pm
Quote
The central message of this study is clear: though coups against autocrats have sometimes led to democratization, more often they install a new set of autocratic elites and expose citizens to higher levels of repression.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 31, 2022, 12:00:59 am
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053168016630837And there is no way a peaceful revolution will succeed at all. I know a violent one is risky, but I am willing to take said risk. Kill.QuoteThe central message of this study is clear: though coups against autocrats have sometimes led to democratization, more often they install a new set of autocratic elites and expose citizens to higher levels of repression.
Anyways, I'm tired of this conversation.
Post by: hector13 on August 31, 2022, 12:20:39 am
What do you think a nonviolent rebellion looks like and why would it fail?
Edit: I can only conclude from this you’re not interested in revolution, you’re not interested change, and you’re not interested in making things better. All you want is revenge.
If you embark on the journey to revenge, dig two graves, though in this instance you’d be better just cutting out the middleman: dig one, jump in, and shoot yourself.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 31, 2022, 01:55:52 am
Prove it.1. People have explained that before. Peaceful rebellion only works when the government gives a shit. Even Gandhi said peaceful rebellion wouldn't have worked in Nazi Germany.
What do you think a nonviolent rebellion looks like and why would it fail?
Edit: I can only conclude from this you’re not interested in revolution, you’re not interested change, and you’re not interested in making things better. All you want is revenge.
If you embark on the journey to revenge, dig two graves, though in this instance you’d be better just cutting out the middleman: dig one, jump in, and shoot yourself.
2. False. I do want change, I just believe the only way to do so in Russia at this point is violence. I'd prefer peace if I believed it was possible. I said this several times and you ignored me. You keep strawmanning me like a little baby who ran out of points to make and keeps ignoring any counterarguments to repeat "it won't work" over and over.
Honestly this discussion radicalized me against pacifism even more, by showing its supporters to have stuck their heads in the sand. I just want to get it over with because you are clearly not arguing in good faith.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 31, 2022, 02:06:37 am
Prove it.
What do you think a nonviolent rebellion looks like and why would it fail?
See Belarus 2020 as an example of "peaceful rebellion". Crowds were ignored, leaders were imprisoned and tortured. Nothing changed
Please, please model a peaceful rebellion that removes Putin from power. I am REALLY curious
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 31, 2022, 02:09:49 am
Yeah I was about to edit in Belarus 2020. It really sucks that the only way to remove Putin is likely to cause another bloody civil war, but I just don't see an alternative.Prove it.
What do you think a nonviolent rebellion looks like and why would it fail?
See Belarus 2020 as an example of "peaceful rebellion". Crowds were ignored, leaders were imprisoned and tortured. Nothing changed
Please, please model a peaceful rebellion that removes Putin from power. I am REALLY curious
Post by: Quarque on August 31, 2022, 02:11:47 am
Post by: King Zultan on August 31, 2022, 04:19:02 am
Honestly this discussion radicalized meYou say that as if you weren't already radicalized, with your wanting to kill everyone in the government for revenge or some crap.
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 31, 2022, 04:27:30 am
"even more"Honestly this discussion radicalized meYou say that as if you weren't already radicalized, with your wanting to kill everyone in the government for revenge or some crap.
Post by: Great Order on August 31, 2022, 06:11:38 am
As a Russian, I'm sorry for the crimes my people inflicted on the people of Ukraine. Whenever I talk to an Ukrainian on the internet, I profusely apologize if the subject comes up. I'm really guilty.Eh, I've never been a fan of guilt-by-association. It's always applied inconsistently anyway. When a Christian performs a terrorist act, you don't see Christians apologising for it. If a Muslim does one, it's expected other Muslims apologise because if they don't it's seen as tacit support.
Besides, I can't see many people on this forum supporting it. At most I could see nuanced opinions still overall condemning the invasion.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 31, 2022, 06:36:53 am
Quote
When a Christian performs a terrorist act, you don't see Christians apologising for it. If a Muslim does one, it's expected other Muslims apologise because if they don't it's seen as tacit support.
Christian terrorism (not terror acts done by Christians) is quite rare. Sure, the way American Bible Belt going, we'll see more of that but...
What is more important, if a group of Christians will hijack a plane and smash it into a high scraper IN THE NAME OF JESUS CHRIST, there will be NO major churches or individuals or any significant % of ordinary Christians who will label those guys as martyrs. Christians will say something along the lines "those monsters are not Christians and it is disgusting that they used the name of God for their vile act and no true Christian would do that."
It is simply illogical to apologize for the actions of someone who you don't see as a part of your group.
Muslim world works differently. Millions openly consider insane murderers as their brother in faith, as martyrs, as saints.
Post by: scriver on August 31, 2022, 08:06:53 am
The birth of democracy (French Revolution) was pretty violent too. Not saying it was ideal, but I don't think it's helpful to bash a Russian for wanting the wrong kind of revolution, especially when nothing of the sort is currently happening. It isn't pretty when a dictator is lynched by an angry mob (happened plenty of times), but on the whole it's often still a positive change. I sincerely hope we can discuss the pros and cons of lynching Putin in a way that isn't entirely hypothetical one day.
I take opposition both to the labeling of the French revolution as "the birth of democracy" as well as marking it as successful. The revolution led to decades of tyranny and civil war before a general, the golden son of the revolution couped the republic and effectively reinstalled monarchy for another... I font remember when the third republic came about. 1870s-90s?
Post by: Starver on August 31, 2022, 08:27:56 am
Spoiler: General ramble around selected parts of the realities (click to show/hide)
Post by: Great Order on August 31, 2022, 10:01:57 am
Yeah, France had a democracy for a very short period before it was usurped. I think a lot of people see the US and think it's often like that, but the US's formation was an exception to the rule, and if Washington hadn't been who he was it's possible that the US would have turned into another monarchy pretty promptly too.The birth of democracy (French Revolution) was pretty violent too. Not saying it was ideal, but I don't think it's helpful to bash a Russian for wanting the wrong kind of revolution, especially when nothing of the sort is currently happening. It isn't pretty when a dictator is lynched by an angry mob (happened plenty of times), but on the whole it's often still a positive change. I sincerely hope we can discuss the pros and cons of lynching Putin in a way that isn't entirely hypothetical one day.
I take opposition both to the labeling of the French revolution as "the birth of democracy" as well as marking it as successful. The revolution led to decades of tyranny and civil war before a general, the golden son of the revolution couped the republic and effectively reinstalled monarchy for another... I font remember when the third republic came about. 1870s-90s?
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 31, 2022, 10:15:56 am
Post by: hector13 on August 31, 2022, 10:18:21 am
Prove it.
What do you think a nonviolent rebellion looks like and why would it fail?
See Belarus 2020 as an example of "peaceful rebellion". Crowds were ignored, leaders were imprisoned and tortured. Nothing changed
Please, please model a peaceful rebellion that removes Putin from power. I am REALLY curious
If all we need is one example of something not working then I expect you support Ukraine giving up the fight because they already lost in 2014? ::)
Putin put in a law to stop people protesting the Ukraine war because he doesn’t want people protesting. If he didn’t give a shit about it, and could just send in security forces every time, what was the point of the law? Because violently suppressing protests just encourages more protests, particularly if there are other things bothering people, like the cost of living from all the sanctions on Russia.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 31, 2022, 11:09:56 am
Quote
If all we need is one example of something not working then I expect you support Ukraine giving up the fight because they already lost in 2014
You asked what peaceful rebellion looks like and why it would fail. I responded. It looks like Belarus. And it fails because without violence people were not ready to defend themselves and comrades against unlawful arrests.
Also, there are different kinds of lost. Ukraine achieved something in a war with Russia. in 2014, with very limited resources, we prevented Russia from getting more stuff and got years to prepare for a bigger war. Actually, our struggle never ceased, we were at law intensity war for 8 years before it exploded into a large one.
Belarusian protests achieved nothing... oh no... they achieved best sons and daughters in prison, injuries mentally and physically... If they did plain nothing results would be BETTER.
Quote
Putin put in a law to stop people protesting the Ukraine war because he doesn’t want people protesting. If he didn’t give a shit about it, and could just send in security forces every time, what was the point of the law?
People tend to outlaw stuff that is disgusting to them. For Russians being against this war is disgusting. If it is illegal to wank on the streets it doesn't mean that the government is afraid of wankers.
But let us speak hypothetically. Few millions go on the streets of Moscow protesting, Putin sees this and resigns (LOL) and we have fair democratic elections (LOL) and we get perfect, great guys in power (lol) and Russia becomes liberal democracy
How do you think... What will ordinary hardcore Russian fascists do? All those war criminals with weapons, combat experience, connections? What will oligarchs and corrupt officials do? Do you expect they'll go "Oh... The government changed to liberal-democracy we lost... Time to go to prison..."?
No. They'll launch a violent counter-revolution the very next day.
Post by: hector13 on August 31, 2022, 11:34:42 am
At least in a peaceful revolution you have the opportunity to get the police and military on your side. You won’t do that by killing them from day 1. The hardcore fascists now have to fight a skilled and equipped foe that don’t have losses to make up for from a violent revolution.
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 31, 2022, 11:45:09 am
Now you need to stop pulling the constant bad-faith argument shit and acknowledge that it's still MORE likely to do literally anything than a peaceful protest in an authoritarian regime. The entire point here has been that what approach is most likely to work differs depending on the situation. If you're going to get gunned down by the military either way, then that does lean the more logical response towards violence.
The entire problem here is of course that dislodging fascists is hard. Their entire MO is making it hard to dislodge them by any means. Governments in general don't like to make it easy to kick their shit in, for that matter. It's reasonable to acknowledge that the odds are low bordering on nil no matter what method is used.
But Hector, you need to stop with the personal dings towards Max and pushing things way too far just because you refuse to acknowledge that dealing with fascists isn't as simple as waving some signs around. God/gods if only it were that fucking easy...
Post by: Strongpoint on August 31, 2022, 11:46:01 am
I provided examples of violent protest that have resulted in over a decade of civil war, with factions fighting enemy and friend alike.
At least in a peaceful revolution you have the opportunity to get the police and military on your side. You won’t do that by killing them from day 1. The hardcore fascists now have to fight a skilled and equipped foe that don’t have losses to make up for from a violent revolution.
You forgot to mention that Syrian 2011 protests were just as peaceful as Tunisian 2011 protests. Difference - Assad didn't give an F and ordered to shoot peaceful protestors. They had a choice to either surrender or start an armed revolt. If anything Syrian example proves that in some cases peaceful protests are useless.
And in Russia hardcore fascists ARE the skilled and equipped foe. They are the core of army, police, and special services
Violent resistance is not a pleasant thing. It never makes a country better. It can straight up destroy the country or turn it into Somalia for decades. It is like chemotherapy in the late stages of cancer - the only option left.
Quote
I mean, you’re at the pearly gates with St. Pete or whoever it is in your particular brand. How do you justify killing god’s children?
Now that is an easy question for a true Christian - I believe that Jesus is my savior and died for my sins, thus my sins don't matter and I deserve my place in Heaven
Post by: heydude6 on August 31, 2022, 11:54:45 am
Sometimes, effective social change really is as simple as removing one bad actor.
EDIT: If it helps Hector, I don't think you're arguing in bad faith. I thought the article you linked about non-violent protest to be very good.
Post by: hector13 on August 31, 2022, 11:59:18 am
What’s the point in taking action if it will result in either no change or something worse than what you have now? It’s akin to breaking a finger and treating it by cutting off your hand.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 31, 2022, 12:09:15 pm
If we're going to talk about peaceful vs violent protest, I should probably remind you guys that we Ukrainians violently ousted a Russian puppet from presidential power in 2014 and we turned out relatively fine in spite of Russia's annexation of Crimea.
Sometimes, effective social change really is as simple as removing one bad actor.
Well... not a perfect example. Maydan 2014 always was about people responding to violence symmetrically. Protesters never were ones to raise the level of violence. And in the end, we used constitutional means to kick Yanukovich out. I am sure Putin hoped for anarchy in Kyiv, never happened.
Post by: heydude6 on August 31, 2022, 12:10:41 pm
And in the end, we used constitutional means to kick Yanukovich out.
There's a provision in the Ukrainian Constitution that allows you to oust a leader by storming parliament?
Post by: MorleyDev on August 31, 2022, 12:12:06 pm
From what I recall/regoogled, the 2014 ousting of the Ukrainian President was more from what could be called 'mass acts of civil disobedience' rather than a 'violent revolution'.
Hector13 seems to be referring to needing to avoid organization armed insurrection under a figurehead leader/group or series of them, since that tends to lead to either said figurehead leader/group simply becoming "meet the new boss, same as the old", or dragged out martial conflict between multiple vying groups.
Mass civil disobedience instead forces those in positions of power other than the immediate direct leadership to reevaluate priorities and either come out of from the background and more openly push for reform, or to switch positions and align themselves with reform for fear for their positions/livelihoods/lives. This brings about change in the system whilst leaving wider societal structure intact and allows for the emergence of leaders under more constrained and safeguarded circumstances, rather than the assertion of leadership by individuals backed up by force.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 31, 2022, 12:27:55 pm
And in the end, we used constitutional means to kick Yanukovich out.There's a provision in the Ukrainian Constitution that allows you to oust a leader by storming parliament?
It wasn't the cleanest procedure but all was done through actual, legit, votes of an elected internationally recognized parliament. Yes, strictly speaking, procedures of removing Yanukovitch from power weren't followed but when 328 MPs of 450 vote for something it has weight in a democratic country.
And what storming of the parliament you are talking about? Parliament was allowed to work, there were no protestors inside during voting. Sure they were under the pressure but it is how it should be because, as the constitution says - The people are the bearers of sovereignty and the only source of power in Ukraine.
Post by: Strongpoint on August 31, 2022, 02:05:49 pm
I don't know who is behind the official Twitter account of the Ukrainian ministry of defense but I love him (or her)
Post by: Lord Shonus on August 31, 2022, 02:28:22 pm
Yeah, France had a democracy for a very short period before it was usurped. I think a lot of people see the US and think it's often like that, but the US's formation was an exception to the rule, and if Washington hadn't been who he was it's possible that the US would have turned into another monarchy pretty promptly too.
While Washington gets lionized as The Man Who Would Not Be King, the way British colonies were set up in those days had more to do with it. Unlike Spain or France, which used a system of imperial viceroys and governors laying down the law from the mother country as holy writ, Britain's colonies were largely self governing. All of the thirteen colonies had some form of parliament that handled pretty much all local affairs, and the people were accustomed to having their voices heard. Indeed, their initial response to a lot of the British acts that offended them was to simply petition Parliament for redress of grievances, and if Pitt the Elder had been able to secure a stronger position that would probably have worked. Fundamentally, for most of the colonies little changed in the Revolution other than swapping London for Philadelphia.
Post by: EuchreJack on August 31, 2022, 02:38:13 pm
Post by: heydude6 on August 31, 2022, 02:43:14 pm
Don't recommend locking it for very long though. The counteroffensive has just begun and people are going to want to talk about it.
Post by: Random_Dragon on August 31, 2022, 02:45:48 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on August 31, 2022, 02:47:55 pm
Post by: Great Order on August 31, 2022, 02:49:14 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on August 31, 2022, 10:45:28 pm
Whatever, this clown is clearly ignoring our points. I'm done. Go sing Imagine with your fellow doves.
Post by: hector13 on September 01, 2022, 12:08:36 am
You’ve claimed before that Putin will order peaceful protesters. What do you think he’ll do to them if they shoot back? He’s claimed Ukraine is Russia, and the soldiers there are raping and murdering civilians, they’re raping, torturing, and murdering POWs. He’s using illegal weapons against civilians. He has used nerve agents and nuclear agents in enemies of the state like Skripal, Litvinenko, and Navalny.
PPE: you’re too late I saw the post. I’m not the only one not listening. You say I’m discounting the positives, you’re not even thinking about the negatives, the possibilities listed above, and probably more, and worse. Putin’s has nukes ffs. Do you think he would never use them against his own people? I mean, for there too be change, you have to win. I don’t think you know what that even means.
You say you’re willing to take the risk. Are you willing to put at risk every person you’ve ever known? Because that’s what armed resistance against a regime that has been entrenched for two decades plus will do. Every single person in Russia that has an iota of wealth, power, and influence has it thanks to Putin. You don’t get rid of that overnight. Quite frankly I don’t think you ever get rid of that unless you excise them all, and I don’t think complete anarchy from having local, regional, and national government, the entire military command, and the leadership of all law enforcement and security completely destroyed is better than what you have now.
I mean, you’ve been posting openly for at least the last few months about wanting to murder Putin and his cronies. Are you taking precautions? VPNs? Tor? If not, are you at all worried about being disappeared in the night?
Anyway, good luck with the resistance. You’ll need that and a lot more.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 01, 2022, 12:24:14 am
I’m not discounting the potential positives in armed conflict. I provided evidence that the most likely outcome is the repression will be worse than it was before, and that’s even assuming your side wins. I’ve also provided an example of an extended civil war that started from armed resistance in the comparatively tiny country of Syria, that’s still ongoing, and the regime there is using horrible weapons on the civilian populace there.1. That is an acceptable risk compared to not succeeding at all, which is what peaceful resistance would lead to.
You’ve claimed before that Putin will order peaceful protesters. What do you think he’ll do to them if they shoot back? He’s claimed Ukraine is Russia, and the soldiers there are raping and murdering civilians, they’re raping, torturing, and murdering POWs. He’s using illegal weapons against civilians. He has used nerve agents and nuclear agents in enemies of the state like Skripal, Litvinenko, and Navalny.
PPE: you’re too late I saw the post. I’m not the only one not listening. You say I’m discounting the positives, you’re not even thinking about the negatives, the possibilities listed above, and probably more, and worse. Putin’s has nukes ffs. Do you think he would never use them against his own people? I mean, for there too be change, you have to win. I don’t think you know what that even means.
You say you’re willing to take the risk. Are you willing to put at risk every person you’ve ever known? Because that’s what armed resistance against a regime that has been entrenched for two decades plus will do. Every single person in Russia that has an iota of wealth, power, and influence has it thanks to Putin. You don’t get rid of that overnight. Quite frankly I don’t think you ever get rid of that unless you excise them all, and I don’t think complete anarchy from having local, regional, and national government, the entire military command, and the leadership of all law enforcement and security completely destroyed is better than what you have now.
I mean, you’ve been posting openly for at least the last few months about wanting to murder Putin and his cronies. Are you taking precautions? VPNs? Tor? If not, are you at all worried about being disappeared in the night?
Anyway, good luck with the resistance. You’ll need that and a lot more.
2. I know. The losses sustained in armed struggle are acceptable, especially if more of them die than us.
3. I do know about the negatives, I just think they are an acceptable risk. Losing is also an acceptable risk, since not struggling means you lose by default because they will simply ignore the people. And of course I know you have to win to change things. That's the point of violence.
4. Yes. Also you are exaggerating the reach he has. Governments have been overthrown and replaced before in other countries, this isn't any different.
5. Yes, and no.
6. Thanks.
You simply haven't provided evidence that peaceful "resistance" will lead to the government falling. Look at Belarus. Look where peaceful "resistance" led them. It won't work, and people like you are part of the problem. You seem to think I don't realize the risk or the negatives. Of course I do. I genuinely feel it is the best course of action in spite of that. You clearly know jack shit about the situation here anyways.
Post by: hector13 on September 01, 2022, 01:07:49 am
Phillipines (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/People_Power_Revolution)
Mongolia (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongolian_Revolution_of_1990)
Serbia/Yugoslavia (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overthrow_of_Slobodan_Milošević)
Georgia (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rose_Revolution)
Ukraine (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Revolution)
Armenia (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Armenian_revolution)
People like me aren’t the problem. I’ve shown you ample evidence that violent resistance will make your problems worse in the short-, medium-, and more than likely the long-term, through the academic stuff I’ve linked, and by example of Syria and Libya, Il Palazzo gave the example of the Russia
I’ve given you ample evidence that peaceful protest works even against authoritarian governments, by example of Tunisia and some of the above, and further academic stuff. All you’ve done is parrot what other people are saying, and say peaceful protest won’t work, citing one example of it not working.
It‘a not my fault you can’t see beyond your bloodlust. I’m not the one wishing death on millions, intended or otherwise
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 01, 2022, 01:34:31 am
All you’ll say is “oh those succeeded because of the threat of violence” with no evidence, however:Yes all of those worked because of the threat of violence. That's simply how authoritarian governments work. You are naive if you think otherwise.
Phillipines (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/People_Power_Revolution)
Mongolia (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongolian_Revolution_of_1990)
Serbia/Yugoslavia (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overthrow_of_Slobodan_Milošević)
Georgia (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rose_Revolution)
Ukraine (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orange_Revolution)
Armenia (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Armenian_revolution)
People like me aren’t the problem. I’ve shown you ample evidence that violent resistance will make your problems worse in the short-, medium-, and more than likely the long-term, through the academic stuff I’ve linked, and by example of Syria and Libya, Il Palazzo gave the example of the Russia
I’ve given you ample evidence that peaceful protest works even against authoritarian governments, by example of Tunisia and some of the above, and further academic stuff. All you’ve done is parrot what other people are saying, and say peaceful protest won’t work, citing one example of it not working.
It‘a not my fault you can’t see beyond your bloodlust. I’m not the one wishing death on millions, intended or otherwise
"It‘a" not my fault you can’t see beyond your spinelessness. I’m not the one wishing millions to keep suffering under an authoritarian government, intended or otherwise
Post by: hector13 on September 01, 2022, 02:04:59 am
I’m not asking people to suffer. I have provided evidence that non-violent resistance works, even in authoritarian settings. You refuse to accept this.
You even have the gall to say I’m the one not listening.
Your entire argument has been “authoritarians don’t give a shit” then I give an example of authoritarians giving a shit and then you say “well, this authoritarian doesn’t give a shit” without any evidence to back it up. The examples I gave were people going out to protest peacefully, and people don’t protest because they’re happy do they? They’re angry, and angry people sometimes get violent. That doesn’t t make the protests violent. They’re going out with the intention of letting people know they’re upset and want change, not “tonight I will kill someone, and I’ll keep killing until my demands are met.”
But no, clearly I’m the one arguing in bad faith, providing evidence of my positions and when I get asked for more, and everyone saying “nnnnnnn someone threw a punch or a chair so it was the threat of violence that made that work nnngfhh authoritarians don’t care even though there are loads of examples of them caring uujuuuju my authoritarian isn’t like other authoritarians mmmmmm BELARUS2020BELARUS2020BELARUS2020 eueuurfh“ are on the verge of fucking enlightenment.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 01, 2022, 02:15:15 am
I gave my answer there to some of the examples presented above.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 01, 2022, 02:19:28 am
What was the point in asking for evidence if you’re just going to dispute it with no evidence?1. That is not evidence. Show me evidence that those revolutions had no threat of violence behind them, as that is a ridiculous claim.
I’m not asking people to suffer. I have provided evidence that non-violent resistance works, even in authoritarian settings. You refuse to accept this.
You even have the gall to say I’m the one not listening.
Your entire argument has been “authoritarians don’t give a shit” then I give an example of authoritarians giving a shit and then you say “well, this authoritarian doesn’t give a shit” without any evidence to back it up. The examples I gave were people going out to protest peacefully, and people don’t protest because they’re happy do they? They’re angry, and angry people sometimes get violent. That doesn’t t make the protests violent. They’re going out with the intention of letting people know they’re upset and want change, not “tonight I will kill someone, and I’ll keep killing until my demands are met.”
But no, clearly I’m the one arguing in bad faith, providing evidence of my positions and when I get asked for more, and everyone saying “nnnnnnn someone threw a punch or a chair so it was the threat of violence that made that work nnngfhh authoritarians don’t care even though there are loads of examples of them caring uujuuuju my authoritarian isn’t like other authoritarians mmmmmm BELARUS2020BELARUS2020BELARUS2020 eueuurfh“ are on the verge of fucking enlightenment.
2. It was non-violent, and it worked. That I can agree with. But it was tried before, both in Russia and Belarus. Nothing happened. The only logical next step is to start killing them all.
3. The evidence of this authoritarian not giving a shit is previous protests. Which you have ignored.
4. Nice strawman.
It's clear that this is going nowhere, can we stop before we both get slapped by Toady and/or this thread gets locked?
If you really want to continue the discussion... Welcome - http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=180265.0Nah I'm done with this person, who clearly simply has no spine and is just being contrarian.
I gave my answer there to some of the examples presented above.
Post by: hector13 on September 01, 2022, 02:21:45 am
Fuck you, you’re the one hiding behind your computer screen doing fuck all, coward. Willing to risk it all aye, my hole.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 01, 2022, 02:25:00 am
No I’m fucking done with the conversation and every cunt telling me I’m wrong despite the ample evidence that nonviolent resistance can work and gives better outcomes when it does, and violent resistance is the only way forward even though I’ve provided evidence that can fuck things up further too.Have a nice day.
Fuck you, you’re the one hiding behind your computer screen doing fuck all, coward. Willing to risk it all aye, my hole.
Post by: hector13 on September 01, 2022, 02:28:47 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 01, 2022, 02:35:03 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 01, 2022, 02:45:07 am
Looks like they really don't want IAEA to visit the station.
Post by: Great Order on September 01, 2022, 02:55:02 am
Post by: King Zultan on September 01, 2022, 05:03:14 am
Post by: Starver on September 01, 2022, 06:13:35 am
Why don't we actually lock the thread...if I read OP's post right, because locking for the desired 48 hours won't allow it to be unlocked again (off their own authority) having hopefully cooled the conversation down. Locking permanently won't stop the need for a thread, which could be created anew immediately with no "but there already is one, actually" to make anyone think twice... And could immediately receive all the frustrations just prevented from being posted to the original.
So it's a tricky problem. Without getting site-admin(s) involved, and there are various reasons we just don't want to bother them so "Hey guys(/gals/whatever)! Cool it!" (from the general disinterested parties in such a tennis match of argument, even before OP gets into it) is the kind of level of escalation we want to hope would work beforehand. If earlier and more casual hints aren't taken.
Anyway, <fingers crossed>, maybe it's over, and I somehow held back my own thoughts (nuanced to both ends of the conflict) and won't say anything from now onwards, if I can help it.
Quote
massive ass argumentsI notice you didn't try to use any hyphen making it even easier for me (https://xkcd.com/37/)... ;)
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 01, 2022, 07:19:17 am
This argument was indeed ass.Quotemassive ass argumentsI notice you didn't try to use any hyphen making it even easier for me (https://xkcd.com/37/)... ;)
Post by: hector13 on September 01, 2022, 09:45:16 am
+1This argument was indeed ass.Quotemassive ass argumentsI notice you didn't try to use any hyphen making it even easier for me (https://xkcd.com/37/)... ;)
I also apologize for my part. Hopefully things are better irl.
Post by: Magmacube_tr on September 01, 2022, 09:57:40 am
This argument was indeed ass.Quotemassive ass argumentsI notice you didn't try to use any hyphen making it even easier for me (https://xkcd.com/37/)... ;)
It was a bunch of anupodes.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 01, 2022, 09:58:30 am
It's fine, I shouldn't have escalated.+1This argument was indeed ass.Quotemassive ass argumentsI notice you didn't try to use any hyphen making it even easier for me (https://xkcd.com/37/)... ;)
I also apologize for my part. Hopefully things are better irl.
Post by: hector13 on September 01, 2022, 10:05:27 am
It's fine, I shouldn't have escalated.+1This argument was indeed ass.Quotemassive ass argumentsI notice you didn't try to use any hyphen making it even easier for me (https://xkcd.com/37/)... ;)
I also apologize for my part. Hopefully things are better irl.
Shit happens, I did the same yesterday a while prior to the conclusion, but apparently edited it out before you saw it.
We’re human, we make mistakes. Sometimes we let other frustrations bleed into unrelated things.
I’m cool if you’re cool, is basically my point.
Post by: King Zultan on September 02, 2022, 03:19:16 am
Post by: EuchreJack on September 02, 2022, 09:53:42 am
Well look at that everything worked out in the end, always good when that happens.+1
Post by: Strongpoint on September 02, 2022, 12:53:33 pm
how unfortunate (I love Russian... hm "creative" solutions, I wonder when Russian diplomacy will be taken seriously ever again)
Yes, they truly believe that this will stop European aid to Ukraine.
Post by: Starver on September 02, 2022, 02:18:40 pm
Post by: Dostoevsky on September 02, 2022, 03:53:17 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on September 02, 2022, 05:56:54 pm
Post by: nenjin on September 02, 2022, 05:59:15 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on September 02, 2022, 06:01:54 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on September 03, 2022, 01:21:40 am
Interview with the leader of NRA (or, at least, someone who claims to be one)
Post by: EuchreJack on September 03, 2022, 01:35:07 am
https://www.kyivpost.com/russia/bringing-down-putins-regime-worlds-first-ever-interview-with-a-leader-of-russian-nra.html
Interview with the leader of NRA (or, at least, someone who claims to be one)
A good read, but NRA needs more action in order to be believed to exist. Nobody believes a group claiming only one action.
Post by: King Zultan on September 03, 2022, 01:48:25 am
Post by: EuchreJack on September 03, 2022, 01:56:11 am
I wonder what would happen if they turned out to be one hit wonders?Killing a young lady spouting daddy's propaganda hardly makes them one-hit wonders ...
Post by: hector13 on September 03, 2022, 02:03:36 am
That’s literally one hit. What else could they be? :pI wonder what would happen if they turned out to be one hit wonders?Killing a young lady spouting daddy's propaganda hardly makes them one-hit wonders ...
Post by: EuchreJack on September 03, 2022, 02:05:30 am
Yes, but the wonder becomes "Is that the best you could do?" :(That’s literally one hit. What else could they be? :pI wonder what would happen if they turned out to be one hit wonders?Killing a young lady spouting daddy's propaganda hardly makes them one-hit wonders ...
Post by: hector13 on September 03, 2022, 02:07:01 am
Putin is a former intelligence agent, he’s a hard target.Yes, but the wonder becomes "Is that the best you could do?" :(That’s literally one hit. What else could they be? :pI wonder what would happen if they turned out to be one hit wonders?Killing a young lady spouting daddy's propaganda hardly makes them one-hit wonders ...
Presumably anyway.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 03, 2022, 02:08:12 am
FTFYI wonder what would happen if they turned out to be one hit wonders?Killing a[young ladyadult womanspouting daddy's propagandausing her father's supremacist and genocidal platform to bolster her own standing hardly makes them one-hit wonders ...
Anyway I'm still kind of skeptical about this not being an inside job.
Post by: hector13 on September 03, 2022, 02:12:14 am
Post by: King Zultan on September 03, 2022, 04:40:34 am
Post by: brewer bob on September 03, 2022, 06:07:35 am
What if the NRA was actually just a lie made up to cover for a Putin controlled hitman, that was sent out to get rid of people Putin didn't like anymore?
If that would be the case I think Dugina would've somehow fallen from a window to death instead of getting blown up.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 03, 2022, 06:15:09 am
https://www.kyivpost.com/russia/bringing-down-putins-regime-worlds-first-ever-interview-with-a-leader-of-russian-nra.html
Interview with the leader of NRA (or, at least, someone who claims to be one)
A good read, but NRA needs more action in order to be believed to exist. Nobody believes a group claiming only one action.
yeah, and I'd prefer to see an action that actually hurts Russia's war effort to make it less likely to be a FSB's game. Sabotage on some defense industry facility or something like that.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 03, 2022, 06:34:06 am
C'mon NRA, if you're real, kill more. Kill someone Putin likes. That will dispel most of the doubt.
Post by: King Zultan on September 04, 2022, 02:51:13 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 04, 2022, 09:25:19 am
Could be someone else calming to be resistance group to cover for the hitman.Same thing, the government doesn't really have a reason to cover this up because they got away with much higher-profile assassinations without much if any cover. Seems like too much effort and too many possible side effects.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 04, 2022, 12:05:32 pm
Post by: hector13 on September 04, 2022, 12:40:55 pm
That might be the point though, uncertainty creates a vacuum that gets filled with speculation, and, as shown here in the thread, a lot of that speculation is that it’s an inside job. Coupled with those other assassinations they got away with, it does create at minimum the narrative that they’ll quite literally kilk dissident viewpoints.Could be someone else calming to be resistance group to cover for the hitman.Same thing, the government doesn't really have a reason to cover this up because they got away with much higher-profile assassinations without much if any cover. Seems like too much effort and too many possible side effects.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 04, 2022, 09:39:40 pm
...fair, I can kinda see that. I still hope it's real.That might be the point though, uncertainty creates a vacuum that gets filled with speculation, and, as shown here in the thread, a lot of that speculation is that it’s an inside job. Coupled with those other assassinations they got away with, it does create at minimum the narrative that they’ll quite literally kilk dissident viewpoints.Could be someone else calming to be resistance group to cover for the hitman.Same thing, the government doesn't really have a reason to cover this up because they got away with much higher-profile assassinations without much if any cover. Seems like too much effort and too many possible side effects.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 08, 2022, 11:55:34 am
We are liberating village after village, town after town. Will it continue for a long time? Will this offensive end in a liberation of Kherson and/or Izyum? I don't think so. The offensive potential will be exhausted at some point and Russia will bring in their reserves. Also, rains will start in a few weeks
Still, those are major successes
Post by: Starver on September 08, 2022, 12:16:08 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on September 08, 2022, 02:11:34 pm
Post by: hector13 on September 08, 2022, 02:41:00 pm
This may also be why Russia was seen burning gas a while ago: reduced EU demand reduced the price a bit too much, so they had to jiggle the supply to keep prices reasonable.
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 08, 2022, 03:02:23 pm
It is very likely that the reports of Russia buying from North Korea are in fact them buying North Korean weapons. China's shown themselves unwilling to openly supply Russia in any significant way, and that is going to extend to anything that can be traced to them. Computer chips and other commodities are one thing - weapons and ammunition with 中国北方工业集团有限公司 stamped on the side are something else. Meanwhile, NK does have a sizable armaments industry (it is one of their only real industries), and a big chunk of the global black market is them. More importantly, a huge amount of what they produce is ammunition-compatible with what Russia is already using, as well as the compatible ammunition. The latter is probably the most significant contribution they could make, because it is increasingly clear that Russia's starting to face severe ammunition shortages due to the mysterious stockpile detonations.
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 08, 2022, 03:58:06 pm
Yeah the problem with the sanctions against Russia is… they’re not global. Western demand reduces, which lowers the price of Russian oil, which makes it more attractive to countries that don’t particularly care what’s going on, like India and China.Well that and the fact that Germany, France and Italy were keen to keep buying Russian gas at high prices even after the invasion didn't exactly send Russia the right message
This may also be why Russia was seen burning gas a while ago: reduced EU demand reduced the price a bit too much, so they had to jiggle the supply to keep prices reasonable.
Post by: brewer bob on September 08, 2022, 04:31:43 pm
This may also be why Russia was seen burning gas a while ago: reduced EU demand reduced the price a bit too much, so they had to jiggle the supply to keep prices reasonable.
I understood that the gas burning was most likely due to not having the capacity to store it, or operators fearing that shutting down would cause technical issues to start up again, or possibly some other difficulties, like missing some equipment they can't get hold of due to the embargo?
Post by: Starver on September 08, 2022, 04:52:33 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on September 08, 2022, 05:25:47 pm
I think it was yesterday that it was revealed that Russia had had to buy in huge amounts of weaponry from North Korea. I'm not sure that's good news for anyone. (Russia won't be happy having had to do so, the people of NK will suffer, China may he at the least bemused, etc... And ultimately Ukraine and its worldwide allie/supporters/worried-observers will have to deal with a Russian offensive that is significantly slower to run out of steam as predicted.)
Nah, that's great news, especially with the invasion not even 7 months old.
1) North Korea's equipment isn't necessarily modern in any way, so it's a further sign of Russian despiration.
2) Most of the times North Korea causes trouble, it's because they're suffering economically AND they use their military arms as leverage. So ironically this should actually help World Peace.
...or maybe I'm being a bit optimistic on this point.
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 08, 2022, 05:53:26 pm
I think it was yesterday that it was revealed that Russia had had to buy in huge amounts of weaponry from North Korea. I'm not sure that's good news for anyone. (Russia won't be happy having had to do so, the people of NK will suffer, China may he at the least bemused, etc... And ultimately Ukraine and its worldwide allie/supporters/worried-observers will have to deal with a Russian offensive that is significantly slower to run out of steam as predicted.)It is at least a positive sign that Rusisa's best logistical plan is buying shells made with 19th century technology from the other side of the planet after so many ammo dumps went caput
Post by: Starver on September 08, 2022, 06:17:15 pm
But that was just my initial knee-jerk thoughts (extemporised into passable prose[2], naturally) when I first heard of such happenings. It does need modifying in light of further logical deductions arising from additional facts and suggestions. Still not much changed in its core, though.
[1] In the "good old days", it (and/or China) would be helping out regimes like NK. And it's not even somewhere like Belarus (a virtual province of the New.S.S.R.) but one in China's sphere of influence.
[2] Rather than the original internal representation of those thoughts, which I suppose 'looked' more like a vague and yet fully animated flow-chart/circuit-diagram with flashing colours and floating markers, all representing abstract feelings in ways that might only be obvious to myself even if I used Blender rather than a textbox to convey it to any other minds that care to learn of it.
Post by: EuchreJack on September 08, 2022, 06:38:32 pm
Knee-jerk thoughts are PERMISSABLE. :P
Post by: anewaname on September 09, 2022, 01:22:34 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: JoshuaFH on September 09, 2022, 02:22:08 am
Post by: King Zultan on September 09, 2022, 04:28:07 am
I imagine they'll sell Russia those armaments gladly... starting with the oldest and most poorly maintained ones, counterfeit ones made of subpar materials, barely functioning ones, anything that will be enough to guarantee profits while not ending Russia's little war problem that it's trying to fix.Using Russia as a defective munitions disposal site seems like the best use for all the old crap laying around.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 09, 2022, 07:48:39 am
Also, transporting those across all of Russia must be very inexpensive and don't strain logistics whatsoever.
Post by: Starver on September 09, 2022, 08:28:18 am
Also, transporting those across all of Russia must be very inexpensive and don't strain logistics whatsoever....neither does it seem dangerously prone to accidents.
Post by: MorleyDev on September 09, 2022, 08:56:14 am
Post by: anewaname on September 09, 2022, 07:18:36 pm
On the emotional side of the Ukraine conflict, there have been releases of information from the groups that have been tracking Russia's coerced civilian relocation (from Ukraine to Russia). There is even a wikipedia page (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_filtration_camps_for_Ukrainians) now for what they call filtration camps. No doubt the work camps are deep in Russia for the new cattle.
Post by: Random_Dragon on September 09, 2022, 11:49:41 pm
Spoiler: meme from earlier (click to show/hide)
The advance has evidently since then expanded into a now quite girthy (heh) salient into Kharkiv Oblast, with Luhansk Oblast receiving just the tip (for now) (heh).
EDIT: Joke was based on maps of the advance having the salient end close to Lysychansk, so it's not quite in the Lushansk area just yet as of last info I saw but damnit the joke wrote itself >:V
Post by: Strongpoint on September 10, 2022, 03:07:45 am
Can't blame them, I find it hard to believe how successful this offensive is. It already goes beyond my expectations and it isn't over yet.
Post by: King Zultan on September 10, 2022, 03:12:49 am
Seems like every war has at least one battle penis in it.Spoiler: meme from earlier (click to show/hide)
Post by: Strongpoint on September 10, 2022, 03:35:47 am
Spoiler: way more cute than a battle penis (click to show/hide)
Post by: Strongpoint on September 10, 2022, 04:38:15 am
So, two major Ukrainian offensives are going steadily in Kharkiv and Kherson regions.
We are liberating village after village, town after town. Will it continue for a long time? Will this offensive end in a liberation of Kherson and/or Izyum? I don't think so. The offensive potential will be exhausted at some point and Russia will bring in their reserves. Also, rains will start in a few weeks
Still, those are major successes
He-he, sometimes I love being wrong
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 10, 2022, 04:39:56 am
battle of the smug foxSpoiler: way more cute than a battle penis (click to show/hide)
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 10, 2022, 04:41:03 am
Post by: scriver on September 10, 2022, 06:26:49 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 10, 2022, 06:32:19 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 10, 2022, 06:45:39 am
Post by: Great Order on September 10, 2022, 07:47:38 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 10, 2022, 09:03:17 am
Das me.Spoiler: way more cute than a battle penis (click to show/hide)
What I don't understand is where is the Russian airforce. I was very confident that such large-scale offensives are unlikely because the Russian airforce will be deadly against an advancing forceExpecting any armed farces of Russia to be "deadly" to anyone except civilians at this point is funny.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 10, 2022, 09:19:33 am
Regrouping! Guys, it is regrouping, everything is going according to the Russian plan
Post by: Il Palazzo on September 10, 2022, 09:46:14 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 10, 2022, 11:17:54 am
Honestly stolen from Twitter (c)
Post by: Quarque on September 10, 2022, 04:27:26 pm
Quote
The much-publicised Ukrainian southern offensive was a disinformation campaign to distract Russia from the real one being prepared in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine’s special forces have said.
According to an article in the Guardian. I love it.
Post by: Il Palazzo on September 10, 2022, 04:41:18 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on September 10, 2022, 04:49:23 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 10, 2022, 04:52:59 pm
1. We don't actually know how costly it has been - Ukrainian opsec has been very tight, so the vast majority of what we "know" comes through Russian propaganda channels
2. Feints and misdirection campaigns are always costly. You have to put enough into them to honor the threat, and that means you're going to be launching an assault with inadequate forces against a stronger enemy. In the grim calculus of war, effectively throwing away a significant amount of blood and treasure on one front in order to win a victory of annihilation on another (what this could turn into) is cheap at the price.
3. Feints have a fascinating tendency to turn into real attacks. Either because the enemy was weaker than expected, or they pull too much away when they wake up to the real threat.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 10, 2022, 11:11:23 pm
Of course, results vary
Luhansk Oblast evidently might indeed now be taking just he tip (heh) of the advance, though not sure if confirmed properly yet. (https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1568622833907175425)
Hint - whenever you hear Serhiy Haidai as a source, you can safely ignore any info. Another one to ignore - Goncharenko
Post by: Loud Whispers on September 11, 2022, 01:43:19 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on September 11, 2022, 01:51:27 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on September 11, 2022, 01:51:42 pm
Hint - whenever you hear Serhiy Haidai as a source, you can safely ignore any info. Another one to ignore - Goncharenko
Fair point, though it does seem really weird for the governor of occupied territory to admit to saying they're losing ground, plus last maps I saw did have the tip of the salient just shy of entering into Luhansk Oblast...hmm.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 11, 2022, 02:08:20 pm
Hint - whenever you hear Serhiy Haidai as a source, you can safely ignore any info. Another one to ignore - Goncharenko
Fair point, though it does seem really weird for the governor of occupied territory to admit to saying they're losing ground, plus last maps I saw did have the tip of the salient just shy of entering into Luhansk Oblast...hmm.
No, Serhiy Haidai is the Ukrainian governor of the Luhansk Oblast but he has a well-deserved reputation of spreading... let's say... unconfirmed information on social networks. It is unknown if he does so because of informational warfare or by his own initiative, but he is anything but a reliable source.
Post by: Random_Dragon on September 11, 2022, 02:13:24 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 11, 2022, 04:03:54 pm
Post by: Starver on September 11, 2022, 04:07:38 pm
Post by: Radio Controlled on September 11, 2022, 09:04:22 pm
What I don't understand is where is the Russian airforce. I was very confident that such large-scale offensives are unlikely because the Russian airforce will be deadly against an advancing force
Ukraine's got some pretty solid surface-to-air defences I believe, and Russia's hardly been competent during this. I suspect they're making shitty use of their air superiority.
I heard Germany's Gepards have been helping out a lot on this front, as well as the amazing hack that was developed to allow US anti-radiation HARM missiles to be used by UKR frames.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1568585600046858241?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1568585600046858241%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=
Quote
"A Ukrainian military intelligence source says that the success of the offensive was contingent on American-supplied harm...missiles...It also relied on surface-to-air systems that threatened Russian aircraft: Ukrainian sources single out Germany’s Gepard"
Post by: King Zultan on September 12, 2022, 03:43:42 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 12, 2022, 04:15:03 am
So it's that time again where I ask if any more Russian generals have died?
Well, there are rumors that one was captured ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrei_Sychevoi ) but no official confirmation yet
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 12, 2022, 05:15:20 pm
Post by: JoshuaFH on September 12, 2022, 05:40:03 pm
Post by: Eric Blank on September 12, 2022, 05:42:15 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on September 12, 2022, 05:56:07 pm
Post by: heydude6 on September 12, 2022, 07:25:51 pm
Crimea should still be fair game though.
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 12, 2022, 07:40:49 pm
Post by: Great Order on September 12, 2022, 08:47:37 pm
EDIT: And the mysterious deaths of Putin's allies/important acquaintances continues. Now his director of arctic resource investigation.
Is Putin getting paranoid, or are these people actually moving against him and he's playing whack-a-mole?
Post by: Starver on September 12, 2022, 08:57:55 pm
Hypotheticalai Russianovich Newsreaderov: "And the aggressive Ukrainean Nazis have, unprovoked, attacked right up to the original border and... stopped."
...with the added complications of what you do (and do not do) at the point you get to that border, across which are those willing (or under orders) to lob at you anything from stones to RPGs or even more[1], it does at least leave Moscow with far more truth-varnishing to do in order to spin it to their advantage.
That and it keeps the borderline[2] sympathisers in the international community from going sour on their support for the victimised nation, in whatever form that takes.
More trouble than it's worth.
Until it isn't. A really desparate Putin could always try to do something beyond the pale[3], but then the retaliation or trans-national involvement (or both!) that results is going to be far less hands-tied in nature as well.
[1] Which, to be honest, is a problem wherever you decide to stop. One of the problems with the pre-2022 'front line' in the 'disputed' territories.
[2] NPI!
[3] Also NPI, but of course also a very apt phrase (https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/beyond_the_pale)...
Post by: Strongpoint on September 12, 2022, 10:17:39 pm
____________
Now let us speak about the consequences of the recent Russian defeat. Azerbaijan is currently pounding military bases in Armenia, a member of the Russian military alliance. According to their treaty, Russia is obligated to help Armenia now. And They already called for Russian help... But I highly doubt that this help will come.
Post by: Great Order on September 12, 2022, 10:31:29 pm
Post by: scriver on September 13, 2022, 03:57:47 am
They're using the exact method I do in strategy games.
The "Sneak a piece out of the BYZ while they're busy fighting the Seljuks" method?
Post by: MorleyDev on September 13, 2022, 10:55:44 am
They're using the exact method I do in strategy games.
Now I'm imagining Putin desparately trying to load an older version of the troop movement map and shouting "save scum! save scum!"...
Post by: Strongpoint on September 13, 2022, 01:39:22 pm
Make no mistake, it is not usual clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh, those are artillery\drone strikes into Armenian territory. It would be unthinkable a year ago.
Russia severely damaged its influence in the region, no one is afraid of its armed forces anymore. What will happen in the next year should the war in Ukraine continue and Russia will lose an even larger % of its military potential?
Post by: Strongpoint on September 13, 2022, 10:41:01 pm
I feel horrible for Armenia, a country with declining population, that has gone through so much in it's history, but with an amazing history and culture, they are forced to ally with Russia and the west sure as hell doesn't give a fuck because of Turkey's stance on this.
I... Feel sorry for them for different reasons. Armenia went full into imperialism with the clear attitude of "we are a thousands-year old nation superior to all our neighbors and each plot of land that once was part of the Great Armenia is rightfully ours"
And it is a bad idea to go imperialistic when you are a small nation with the only thing in your favor being a BIG FRIEND. It is also a bad idea to commit horrible ethnic cleansing against your bigger neighbor and annexing a chunk of their territory.
I heard with my own ears Armenians going "After what Turks did to us in 1915, we have a right to do whatever we want to them". Yes, in a typical xenophobic fashion they refuse to see any difference between various kinds of "Turks", if you speak Turkic language you are a Turk, a subhuman.
What Armenia should do is to give Azerbaijani lands they occupied in 1990s, apologize for ethnic cleansing, bring (at least some of) people responsible for ethnic cleansing to justice and start repairing relations with diplomacy. Should they fail to do so, they'll go down together with Russia
Post by: Strongpoint on September 14, 2022, 08:46:06 am
Armenian chances to get any help are slim at best... Well, one less Russian military ally. If things would go differently, we would have some Armenian "peacekeepers" garrisoning occupied Ukraine.
Post by: Lidku on September 14, 2022, 09:52:36 am
With Russia being decimated militarily with sanctions and from its failed "operation" in Ukraine, Azerbaijan will use this opportunity to murder Armenia. They'll get away with it too, because the EU desperately needed an alternative source of gas after Russia stopped providing.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 14, 2022, 10:04:33 am
Yep.
With Russia being decimated militarily with sanctions and from its failed "operation" in Ukraine, Azerbaijan will use this opportunity to murder Armenia. They'll get away with it too, because the EU desperately needed an alternative source of gas after Russia stopped providing.
Armenian government should accept ALL demands, recognize Karabakh to be Azerbaijani territory and sign a lasting peace treaty.
Will they do this? It will help (or even save) their country but... but they WILL be labeled traitors by the majority and their political careers will be over.
The alternative is a bloody war and more severe concessions in a peace treaty later.
_______________
Funny how I sound like many Westerners with their "Ukraine should just surrender" but the situation is different. Azerbaijan has no interest in ethnocide.
Post by: Lidku on September 14, 2022, 10:07:21 am
Azerbaijan has no interest in ethnocide.
lol
Post by: Strongpoint on September 14, 2022, 10:22:31 am
Azerbaijan has no interest in ethnocide.
lol
It really doesn't. We also haven't seen any major atrocities in or after the recent 2020 war.
And, most definitely, Azerbaijani propaganda is not going "Armenians aren't really a nation. They are, in fact, sick Azerbaijani who need to be reeducated (or eliminated if the disease went too far)"
Of course, there is no love towards Armenians. Armenians who'll choose to stay on the territory they occupied may (or rather WILL) be treated harshly. But there will be no ethnocide.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 14, 2022, 01:42:59 pm
Someone doesn't want to admit that they lost the war and continue with their petty terrorism
__________
In other news, Armenians protest... Demanding a war from their government. Well, minus one Russian ally, I can't complain, right?... Many more young Armenians will die for nothing
Post by: EuchreJack on September 14, 2022, 05:17:10 pm
Post by: anewaname on September 14, 2022, 09:50:39 pm
I'm not condoning or saying it was unintentional, but am saying this is what happens in war. And, I would context it as "the war is the crime and many of the actions taken during the war are the result of ignorance, fear, and anger, which are responses to the insanity of being involved in a war."
Some of the Ukrainians will do things to Russians that they have believe Russians did to Ukrainians. Should these be compared as similar crimes?
In all cases, the Russian government and nation, in whatever form it takes after the war, is fully responsible for the war, even if there is a "new" Russian government that claims the previous one has been destroyed.
Post by: EuchreJack on September 14, 2022, 10:31:18 pm
With the talk about the damaging of civilian infrastructure, I'd like to point at what happened in Europe during WWII. In all areas where there was fighting, there was massive damage to civilian infrastructure.
I'm not condoning or saying it was unintentional, but am saying this is what happens in war. And, I would context it as "the war is the crime and many of the actions taken during the war are the result of ignorance, fear, and anger, which are responses to the insanity of being involved in a war."
Some of the Ukrainians will do things to Russians that they have believe Russians did to Ukrainians. Should these be compared as similar crimes?
In all cases, the Russian government and nation, in whatever form it takes after the war, is fully responsible for the war, even if there is a "new" Russian government that claims the previous one has been destroyed.
Uh...NO
At least to the first two paragraphs.
The outrage is that Russia is targeting civilian targets far away from the fighting in retaliation for Russia's losses.
My outrage at YOU is that this has been going on for the entire war, so I would have thought you would know better by now.
We're not talking "Ordinary War" but rather "Ordinary War Crime".
This is probably the kindest response you will be getting to that comment. It's certainly nicer than what I had originally written.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 14, 2022, 11:26:50 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on September 15, 2022, 01:12:19 am
With the talk about the damaging of civilian infrastructure, I'd like to point at what happened in Europe during WWII. In all areas where there was fighting, there was massive damage to civilian infrastructure.
We are not in the mid-20th century. Standards of what is acceptable in a war and what isn't are different now. Believe it or not, turning a city full of civilians into rubble by indiscriminate artillery barrages and carpet bombings are not OK.
Also, we are talking not only about random strikes. We are talking about deliberate attacks on train stations during a publicly announced evacuation, supermarkets, and power stations with precise weapons. Now Russians damaged a dam in an effort to flood a city. They did it with 8 high precision cruise missiles, deliberately spending millions of dollars on this "noble goal".
Quote
Some of the Ukrainians will do things to Russians that they have believe Russians did to Ukrainians. Should these be compared as similar crimes?
*breathes in and breathes out to avoid going full F-word sentences* "Believe Russians did?" IT IS A DAMN FACT. Now, with significant areas liberated, we find graves and torture chambers every damned day. We hear horrifying stories of survivors.
Ukrainians aren't doing this. UNDERSTAND? No, I am not naive. I understand there are sporadic executions (and even torturing) of POWs... And some collaborators got... really unlucky. But it is not by orders from high-ranking officers. Individual war crimes always happen in a war. Especially when the other side went full ethnocide mode.
Don't you dare to use "Ukrainians and Russians are both..." in any damned context.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 15, 2022, 01:55:33 am
With the talk about the damaging of civilian infrastructure, I'd like to point at what happened in Europe during WWII. In all areas where there was fighting, there was massive damage to civilian infrastructure.💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀💀
I'm not condoning or saying it was unintentional, but am saying this is what happens in war. And, I would context it as "the war is the crime and many of the actions taken during the war are the result of ignorance, fear, and anger, which are responses to the insanity of being involved in a war."
Some of the Ukrainians will do things to Russians that they have believe Russians did to Ukrainians. Should these be compared as similar crimes?
In all cases, the Russian government and nation, in whatever form it takes after the war, is fully responsible for the war, even if there is a "new" Russian government that claims the previous one has been destroyed.
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 15, 2022, 03:18:38 am
We are not in the mid-20th century. Standards of what is acceptable in a war and what isn't are different now. Believe it or not, turning a city full of civilians into rubble by indiscriminate artillery barrages and carpet bombings are not OK.
Not least due to the accuracy and power of modern weapons. Targets that once required a thousand bombers to destroy now can be wiped out by a single salvo from a single vehicle. That's only part of it, though.
In most of WWII Europe, the damage to civilian infrastructure was primarily caused by having to go town to town digging out a stubborn conqueror. It is far too likely that Ukraine will have to visit such destruction on her own cities to regain freedom, but that's not what Russia is doing.
The rest of it was done to Germany itself, as the world responded to an aggressor by applying overwhelming force to annihilate their ability to continue to wage war. That would be done differently today and with far less collateral damage, but it would still be defensible. That's also not what Russia is doing.
Late in WWII, when it was clear the war was lost and the German Army was being purged from France one town and city at a time, Hitler allegedly issued an order to burn Paris and the other great cities that the Reich still held to the ground out of a belief that European civilization deserved to die rather than surrender to the "untermenschen". Such an order would be entirely consistent with fascist ideology, but if issued it was not carried out - supposedly the generals in charge feared they'd be lynched if they did so and fell into Allied hands. THAT is the closest WWII analogy to what Russia is doing.
Post by: anewaname on September 15, 2022, 11:08:34 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
@Strongpoint
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
What happens if Ukraine completely removes Russian forces from Ukraine, including Crimea, but is unable to invade Russia due to diminished global support? There are Russians who created and supported the war but never left Russia; can they be extradited and tried as war criminals? If left in Russia, will they use their power to isolate Russian civilians from the world, like North Koreans are isolated, so that all trade into Russia goes through them?
Will Western countries continue the "global good guy" narrative and allow Western political representatives to publicly take over the role of reparations to Ukraine, with all the potential for corruption to occur in backroom deals that will primarily benefit select groups of Ukrainians and Western companies?
Post by: Strongpoint on September 16, 2022, 12:03:27 am
Quote
What happens if Ukraine completely removes Russian forces from Ukraine, including Crimea, but is unable to invade Russia due to diminished global support?
Ukraine celebrates victory, fortifies borders, and starts making diplomatic efforts (likely mostly futile) to get reparations and bring war criminals to justice. There is no unable here. There is completely unwilling.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 16, 2022, 09:11:50 am
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1570770758682677255
I want to see episode 2, in which more Wagner guys will come to the hotel.
Post by: JoshuaFH on September 16, 2022, 10:15:41 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 16, 2022, 10:25:03 am
Do you know what they're fighting about?
Nope, all that can be heard is the Wagner guy saying (using many Russian curse words) that his guys will soon come.
Post by: EuchreJack on September 16, 2022, 03:35:23 pm
QuoteWhat happens if Ukraine completely removes Russian forces from Ukraine, including Crimea, but is unable to invade Russia due to diminished global support?
Ukraine celebrates victory, fortifies borders, and starts making diplomatic efforts (likely mostly futile) to get reparations and bring war criminals to justice. There is no unable here. There is completely unwilling.
I fully anticipate Russian and Ukrainian border clashes long after the War ends.
Now, the second part of the question is more interesting:
There are Russians who created and supported the war but never left Russia; can they be extradited and tried as war criminals? If left in Russia, will they use their power to isolate Russian civilians from the world, like North Koreans are isolated, so that all trade into Russia goes through them?
I don't predict a North Korea situation. Russia is too big and too rich for that.
The end of the War will make winners and losers in Russia's Elite.
The Winners will remain the Winners, and try to reopen foreign trade to they can make more money.
The Losers will get all the blame, and a few of them might even be turned over to the international authorities as scapegoats.
Basically, those in the middle of the Losers faction. The highest ones, like possibly Putin, will either be killed internally, "allowed" to flee to some safe country that lacks extradition, or tentatively cling onto some power as figureheads.
The lowest ones will either die or defect en-masse.
If the West needs Russian blood to reopen trade, don't be surprised if the Russians have people to sacrifice.
I'll also mention the War isn't done yet. These are the scariest days when desperate men do desperate things.
EDIT: I changed the topic name to make it easier to differentiate from the News thread. We're not as formal about such things these days due to the overall maturity of the forum, but try to keep News Reports in the News Threads and Idle Speculation to This Thread.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 16, 2022, 08:16:57 pm
I fully anticipate Russian and Ukrainian border clashes long after the War ends.
I fully anticipate that this war, in one form or another, will go on for decades. Or until Russia will cease to exist.
Post by: Great Order on September 16, 2022, 09:05:08 pm
Not likely, but you never know.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 16, 2022, 11:29:07 pm
Or Russia's government is overthrown and the people in charge want to consolidate power rather than focus on a war
Overthrown Russian government changes little. A huge majority of Russians have the ideology that Ukraine doesn't exist (or should not exist) and this means that the war will continue. It may merely temporarily deescalate. Russian culture, as it is, is incompatible with Ukraine.
It also works in another direction, millions of Ukrainians are now confident that Russia must cease to exist or our children will also have to wage war against a genocide attempt. At the very least, any anti-Russians movement or country will receive non-governmental support.
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 17, 2022, 12:02:57 am
Ukraine's been fighting this war with Soviet leftovers (decent, if used correctly, but the only real option for spare parts and ammunition is battlefield capture at this point - anything they can get from other countries has been sucked up), their own indigenous production (quite good, but almost as hard to get supplies for), and a small subset of Western gear (essentially, anything that requires very limited retraining and logistics support). As is, the largest cap to what the West can provide is that anything more complicated needs a ton of support infrastructure, maintenance training, and operator training. Sooner or later, the front will be stabilized enough that providing that investment will become a "now" thing rather than a "later".
Post by: EuchreJack on September 17, 2022, 12:13:34 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 17, 2022, 12:52:18 am
Russia will rebuild its army. And Russia will still have nukes making it immune to stuff like having their infrastructure bombed away by modern airforce. And economic, propaganda and terrorism wars are also types of wars.
Let's also not forget that Ukraine will face economic, social, demographic, and many more crises. The simple fact is that Russia hurt us way more than we can possibly hurt it. It hurt us more than Western sanctions hurt it. If you define victory in war as hurting your enemy more than they hurt you... Ukraine can't win.
Post by: EuchreJack on September 17, 2022, 01:09:38 am
Joining NATO would probably be the best case scenario, since those NATO solders want infrastructure, entertainment, etc.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 17, 2022, 01:51:42 am
Destroyed property is the least of our concerns.
Post by: KittyTac on September 17, 2022, 02:19:32 am
::) Whatever you say. I don't believe you.Or Russia's government is overthrown and the people in charge want to consolidate power rather than focus on a war
Overthrown Russian government changes little. A huge majority of Russians have the ideology that Ukraine doesn't exist (or should not exist) and this means that the war will continue. It may merely temporarily deescalate. Russian culture, as it is, is incompatible with Ukraine.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 17, 2022, 02:24:36 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 17, 2022, 06:13:08 am
::) Whatever you say. I don't believe you.Or Russia's government is overthrown and the people in charge want to consolidate power rather than focus on a war
Overthrown Russian government changes little. A huge majority of Russians have the ideology that Ukraine doesn't exist (or should not exist) and this means that the war will continue. It may merely temporarily deescalate. Russian culture, as it is, is incompatible with Ukraine.
I could write walls of text about contemporary Russian culture and ideas. About Russian history curriculum in Russian schools. About modern Russian music, including non-mainstream artists. About modern Russian cinematography with marvelous TV-series. About modern Russian literature and selective popularity of Russian classical literature (which is usually twisted and misinterpreted). Show how Ukraine and Ukrainians portrayed in all of the above. Then do the same for the art of the Soviet period and show that it isn't something new, it merely became worse.
I won't. I'll merely express my personal opinion that Russian culture (as it exists now) is incompatible with the idea of any independent Ukraine and restrain myself from trying to prove the validity of my opinion. You are free to believe whatever you want.
One saving grace is that many, many young Russians prefer anime and Netflix to all of that, so the hope is not entirely lost but it won't shift the culture quickly. Also, I expect something like the Great Chinese Firewall of Russia soonish.
Post by: Starver on September 17, 2022, 01:05:17 pm
Also, I expect something like the Great Chinese Firewall of Russia soonish.Already well in hand (https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/apr/28/russia-great-firewall-sovereign-internet-bill-keeping-information-in-or-out), although I'm surprised I haven't heard much about it since the 'Special Military Operation' started. (Or maybe the reason I haven't heard much is that it's been rather effective? Though we have Max/etc here still, so...)
Can't find many definite early references (several before 2019, but a bit vaguer), yet I think it's been in the offing for more than a decade. Not even counting the "Hey, YouTube/Google/etc, don't let my Russian people see <foo>" that they're not the only regime to have preferences about...
Post by: eerr on September 17, 2022, 09:49:49 pm
"You are ignoring this user. Show me the post."
Post by: heydude6 on September 17, 2022, 10:10:48 pm
Post by: eerr on September 17, 2022, 10:17:15 pm
Umm... I think you're in the wrong thread dude. This your first time here and you post a non-sequiter.
Nope, this is the right thread, I'm just tired of hearing misleading propaganda and manipulation out of people like euchre
Post by: Random_Dragon on September 17, 2022, 10:28:20 pm
Post by: heydude6 on September 17, 2022, 10:30:02 pm
Dare I ask what parts in particular?
Don't. If he had something to say he would have opened with that rather than make vague accusations designed to rile people up.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 17, 2022, 10:40:05 pm
Yeah they're too incompetent to do anything on that scale. I have Tor and a VPN anyways.Also, I expect something like the Great Chinese Firewall of Russia soonish.Already well in hand (https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/apr/28/russia-great-firewall-sovereign-internet-bill-keeping-information-in-or-out), although I'm surprised I haven't heard much about it since the 'Special Military Operation' started. (Or maybe the reason I haven't heard much is that it's been rather effective? Though we have Max/etc here still, so...)
Can't find many definite early references (several before 2019, but a bit vaguer), yet I think it's been in the offing for more than a decade. Not even counting the "Hey, YouTube/Google/etc, don't let my Russian people see <foo>" that they're not the only regime to have preferences about...
Post by: Strongpoint on September 17, 2022, 10:49:20 pm
Jumping into a discussion with no useful contribution whatsoever besides announcing "please ignore this awful user X like I do" WILL result in a (totally deserved) temporary ban on well-moderated forums. But we can't bother Toady with dealing with such minor rudeness. Another side effect of a one-man team is that quite a few interesting users god lifelong bans for transgressions that didn't warrant one...
But if we live in a relative anarchy... Let's discuss a very relevant subject... Is eerr a Russian vatnik, a tankie, a neo-nazi, a conspiracy theorist or simply a moron? (Just in case you think I am serious: Let's not)
And I know that he'll read this even if I am also an honored member of his ignore list because usually people claiming they use an ignore list either don't use it or simply click "show post" every time.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 17, 2022, 11:03:11 pm
Post by: hector13 on September 17, 2022, 11:33:46 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 17, 2022, 11:38:16 pm
Nah Toady gives people a long leash. Multiple talkings to, temporary mutes and the like before wielding the banhammer. If someone got banned round here, they ignored multiple opportunities to address the behaviour or issue that lead to it.Yeah I got into several shitfights these past few months, about a variety of topics, and didn't get a single warning. Toady is lenient, this community does an OK job at policing itself.
Post by: MCreeper on September 18, 2022, 02:18:15 am
Post by: King Zultan on September 18, 2022, 03:07:45 am
Also whats with that eerr guy?
Post by: scriver on September 18, 2022, 04:10:52 am
I want to add lazerz
Post by: Strongpoint on September 18, 2022, 04:32:46 am
Interesting article about the current mood in Russian Belgorod
Post by: Great Order on September 18, 2022, 10:25:27 am
As ever though, what I hope is far from what I expect.
Post by: anewaname on September 18, 2022, 02:41:35 pm
...and when a government is telling their people that an external threat is coming, giving the government justification to raise their fists at the people and coerce obedience.
The Russian state-media is probably going to start spinning the narrative, the "special-operation is failing due to massive influx of Western/NATO forces and we are preparing to be invaded and you are expected to contribute to the defense." This is where anyone associated with protest, disagreement, and contemplation will be further ostracized. And Russia will do it to themselves once again, an internal purge that will create the best soil for new philosophers.
In the USA, this paradigm/model was attempted after WWII under the brand name of McCarthyism, with the combination of "everyone outside the USA is a commie" and "everyone inside the USA who doesn't agree is a commie".
Post by: Lidku on September 18, 2022, 06:31:13 pm
My best guess is that with Russia heavily crippled from its botched military campaign against Ukraine, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan can now readily fight eachother (despite both being in CSTO) over resources now that Russia can't readily intervene.
Man, Putin really shit-the-bed with this one.
He caused Russia's sphere of influences to not respect it anymore. Along with its already abysmal economy teetering further down the proverbial abyss due to sanctions, poor demographic outlook, and its international relations and prestige taking a heavy beating; it'll take DECADES (maybe even a few centuries, if humanity is still even around) for Russia to recover from all of this.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 19, 2022, 01:32:14 am
Alot of fighting is now going on between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. I just don't know the particular reasons of the why, it's happening about now.
My best guess is that with Russia heavily crippled from its botched military campaign against Ukraine, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan can now readily fight eachother (despite both being in CSTO) over resources now that Russia can't readily intervene.
Man, Putin really shit-the-bed with this one.
He caused Russia's sphere of influences to not respect it anymore. Along with its already abysmal economy teetering further down the proverbial abyss due to sanctions, poor demographic outlook, and its international relations and prestige taking a heavy beating; it'll take DECADES (maybe even a few centuries, if humanity is still even around) for Russia to recover from all of this.
Russsian sphere of influence has diminished yes... But why would Putin care to protect the sole democracy (even if far from perfect) in the region? BTW, Russian media are quite pro-Tajik. Not to the point of "all Kyrgyzs are nazies and American sluts" but still.
As I said it in a parallel thread - The economy of Tajikistan is very dependent on workers in Russia. With the Russian economy suffering, more and more Tajiks come home... flow of foreign currency from abroad falls, unemployment rises. A local dictator needs something to maintain his power. Quick war for solving an old border dispute is (in his mind) a good solution.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 19, 2022, 02:00:53 am
Russian so-called liberals are really pissed and say that such steps will only increase Putin's support. It is very entertaining to read them on Twitter.
Post by: heydude6 on September 19, 2022, 06:32:25 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 20, 2022, 05:48:03 am
So, I think there will be martial law and mobilization in Russia to protect Russian territory against Ukrainian invasion + possibly WMD.
*surrounded and surrendered to avoid pointless death = up to 10 years of prison :D When you worship Stalin, you get Stalin's laws sooner or later
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 20, 2022, 05:49:59 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 20, 2022, 05:58:40 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 20, 2022, 06:01:04 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 20, 2022, 10:47:48 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on September 20, 2022, 10:56:46 am
- we've liberated the Donbas!
- the Donbas gets to
- oh, look! Donbas is under attack. Ergo, Russia is being invaded.
- in the face of an invasion by nazi Ukrainians we need to mobilise.
- some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I'm willing to make.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 20, 2022, 11:08:01 am
Hey, let's ignorantly speculate on what he'll say. My guess:
- we've liberated the Donbas!
- the Donbas gets tovote on joiningjoin Mother Russia.
- oh, look! Donbas is under attack. Ergo, Russia is being invaded.
- in the face of an invasion by nazi Ukrainians we need to mobilise.
- some of you may die, but it's a sacrifice I'm willing to make.
Also
- We are, in fact, at war with NATO not with Ukraine
- Ukraine is using terrorist tactics
- We defeated Hitler we can defeat those new Western Fascists!
Remember those are rumors, he may not address Russians today... But considering how quickly they move with referendums (all of them will be held on this weekend, with voting via the internet included :D) and how new laws were adopted in a day... I expect Russian mobilization really soon.
And this means that we, Ukrainians, completed the lvl1. Russian standing army is defeated! Now lvl2, a zerg rush! Or maybe we'll skip few levels and go straight to nukes.
Post by: Great Order on September 20, 2022, 12:12:41 pm
So, in all of occupied regions, local collaborators announced "referendums" for joining Russia + Russia's State Duma adopted amendments to Penal code on desertions, mobilisation, martial law, war time, surrendering as a POW*Definitely them going "Oh shit, Ukraine might win this if we don't mobilise"
So, I think there will be martial law and mobilization in Russia to protect Russian territory against Ukrainian invasion + possibly WMD.
*surrounded and surrendered to avoid pointless death = up to 10 years of prison :D When you worship Stalin, you get Stalin's laws sooner or later
Post by: Strongpoint on September 20, 2022, 01:12:43 pm
It will be funny if instead of Putin we'll get some Russian general announcing a coup
Post by: Great Order on September 20, 2022, 02:39:36 pm
This will be interesting. Russia's not got an issue of numbers, it's their logistics, equipment and morale that are causing problems. By chucking poorly trained soldiers into the meat grinder they're just gonna get more people killed, which will destroy their already poor morale (Especially since they look like they'll be conscripts) and possibly devastate their current young generation if they're slaughtered en masse.
As ever, the old men agree to send the young men to their death.
Post by: martinuzz on September 20, 2022, 02:51:01 pm
On Twitter, RT's chief editor posted 'go to bed'. https://twitter.com/M_Simonyan/status/1572304744831483905
Post by: Strongpoint on September 21, 2022, 01:41:45 am
Common! It is half-measures. No full mobilization... No martial law in all of Russia. BORING! My hopes are ruined
_______
Shoigu also had a speech. I can summarize it is 1) Russia lost ~6K KIA, Ukraine lost ~60K KIA, this is why we are mobilizing additional 300K men
Post by: Starver on September 21, 2022, 01:56:00 am
Post by: King Zultan on September 21, 2022, 03:05:16 am
It will be funny if instead of Putin we'll get some Russian general announcing a coupAre there even any generals left to do that?
Post by: martinuzz on September 21, 2022, 03:23:34 am
He said he is willing to use 'all means at our disposal', and that he has 'very much weapons to respond' if the West threatens Russia.
He added that he is not bluffing.
Post by: Il Palazzo on September 21, 2022, 03:52:47 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 21, 2022, 04:20:34 am
It looks like a very convenient way to gather young men in one place to accelerate the mobilization
Post by: Bralbaard on September 21, 2022, 05:51:52 am
Russian liberal opposition calls for peaceful(!!!) anti-mobilization protests today.
It looks like a very convenient way to gather young men in one place to accelerate the mobilization
If that is their strategy the morale of their new troops might become an issue
Post by: Strongpoint on September 21, 2022, 06:14:41 am
Russian liberal opposition calls for peaceful(!!!) anti-mobilization protests today.
It looks like a very convenient way to gather young men in one place to accelerate the mobilization
If that is their strategy the morale of their new troops might become an issue
Bringing "patriots" in won't be much better. The difference between Germans in the 1930s and Russians in the 2020s is that Germany had millions ready to risk their lives for their great nation and new living space. Russia simply doesn't have that, the majority of Russians who support the war, value their own lives more than anything.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 21, 2022, 07:12:17 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 21, 2022, 07:46:37 am
Post by: scriver on September 21, 2022, 08:19:29 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 21, 2022, 08:38:26 am
So did this partial mobilisation mean an actual declaration of war?
No. Partial mobilization means "We need more cannon fodder because we are losing the war"
BTW, I don't believe in 300K, Russia lies. Always. If they would want to mobilize 300K, they would say 50K to limit negative effects... I think they'll mobilize no less than a 1M
It will be a WW2-like zerg rush, I hope China won't arm this horde with semi-modern stuff.
Post by: Starver on September 21, 2022, 11:14:35 am
Other than that, my childhood WW2 Eastern Front tabletop wargaming experience, too.
Spoiler: ...rambling (click to show/hide)
To be pursuing referenda, BTW, I suspect they already know the answer they suspect (or know they can enforce). If nothing else, no matter how faithfully they count the votes, anybody who intends to say "nay" to the idea (deemed ellegible to vote and physically/electronically allowed to) will have nicely marked themselves for extra personal attention once the 90+% assertions of Russianess gets officially rubberstamped.
Post by: brewer bob on September 21, 2022, 11:21:14 am
Quote from: The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/sep/21/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-blinken-calls-moscows-referendum-attempts-a-sham-zelenskiy-to-speak-at-un?page=with:block-632b377a8f08146227061829#block-632b377a8f08146227061829)
Google searches for “how to break an arm” reportedly surged in Russia after Vladimir Putin announced an immediate partial mobilisation of citizens to fight in Ukraine.
Seems like some folk are not so happy of the mobilisation.
Post by: heydude6 on September 21, 2022, 12:23:25 pm
Post by: anewaname on September 21, 2022, 12:58:55 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Strongpoint on September 21, 2022, 01:21:20 pm
Quote
Doesn't the September 21st speech mean only those who avoided the mandatory 12-month conscription can avoid the "partial mobilization" conscription?
Yep! Also, Imagine, you are a Russian professional soldier... You are at war for 7 months with no rotations BUT you know that you have few months left of your contract and you are free... And now they say that your contract is automatically extended until the end of the mobilization!
Or, you are Russian conscript, conscripted almost a year ago. You are among the lucky ones who wasn't sent to Ukraine yet. You had many tense months... it looks like you are among the Lucky ones and will avoid the war... Oh... you are mobilized now and are not going home
The morale of all those guys must be going through the roof.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 21, 2022, 02:04:17 pm
Post by: Telgin on September 21, 2022, 02:24:03 pm
BTW, I don't believe in 300K, Russia lies. Always. If they would want to mobilize 300K, they would say 50K to limit negative effects... I think they'll mobilize no less than a 1M
It will be a WW2-like zerg rush, I hope China won't arm this horde with semi-modern stuff.
I won't pretend to really know the intricacies of Russia's logistics and economy at this point, but aren't they struggling to equip and supply the soldiers they have now? What would they even do with another 300,000 soldiers, much less a million?
For the same reason it seems like the possibility that China would arm them is really remote since I doubt China is going to be giving stuff away for free and if they can't afford to supply their existing soldiers that implies they can't afford to buy Chinese equipment.
Post by: Starver on September 21, 2022, 03:29:34 pm
(Oh, indeed, very very slight, what with the initial blitzkrieg being more-than-stalled, and their own 'friend to the East' being (if anything) more dangerous to try to attack than when the (Reichs)Eagle turned upon the Bear... But I imagine Xi is not relaxing his guard, despite any 'miltary coordination' exercises, and I doubt would even tolerate any move towards an initial Polish-split. (Kazachstan? Let's see what else happens there, first. (North) Korea? No way that'd happen, firstly because of North Korea's militarisation alliances, secondly because of South Korea's militarisation aliances! Mongolia? Well, given the 1920s-1960s, especially, I'm really not sure what initial compromise could even be agreed, and certainly not a "no, you have it..." without either leader making a political/tactical sacrifice...) ...so, yeah, I'm not trying to make a percectly good point there, just demonstrating the additional minor hurdle to add to any such degree of Sino-Russian alliance.)
Post by: Strongpoint on September 21, 2022, 09:48:18 pm
I don't know what they expect from people who a) are against the war 2) can't even throw a rock at riot police... but they are going to make them into soldiers
______________________
And good news 215 Ukrainian POWs were exchanged for ~60 Russian POWs + Putin's pal, leader of the pro-Russian party in Ukraine, Medvedchuk who was arrested early in the war. Those POWs include commanders of the Azov regiment.
Post by: bloop_bleep on September 22, 2022, 01:07:12 am
Post by: KittyTac on September 22, 2022, 02:53:35 am
If needed (e.g there is a civil war), I can flee through the Kazakh border and figure out what to do next from there.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 22, 2022, 03:06:44 am
(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/582746442238525467/1022418251499704320/unknown.png)
Post by: Superdorf on September 22, 2022, 03:29:22 am
I lied at the recruitment center about having even worse vision than I do (by saying I didn't see a letter that I saw clear as day) and got "Category D". I won't get conscripted even if there is a full mobilization. Proud of what I did.
Nicely done.
Post by: Random_Dragon on September 22, 2022, 03:33:02 am
I get the feeling that at least some of the people at risk of being press-ganged into Putin's Small Penis Misadventure will decide the odds of surviving the Russian military and police are higher than the odds of surviving the Ukranian army.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 22, 2022, 04:13:05 am
Until tonight... Tonight Russia destroyed those wagons with a precise cruise missile strike.
Post by: Ganondworf on September 22, 2022, 12:51:04 pm
Until tonight... Tonight Russia destroyed those wagons with a precise cruise missile strike.
I feel like that shouldn't have surprised me, considering all we know of the Russian army and leadership, yet it still did.
I don't know how much more disgusted I can get.
Post by: anewaname on September 22, 2022, 02:34:14 pm
How does Ukraine get their civilians out of Russia without threatening to invade?
Components of the problem....
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
What future would I like to see?
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
I made this post a week ago....
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
From my perspective, the problem rests on a fulcrum where:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
So, "How does Ukraine get their civilians out of Russia without threatening to invade?"
Post by: Great Order on September 22, 2022, 02:51:23 pm
I lied at the recruitment center about having even worse vision than I do (by saying I didn't see a letter that I saw clear as day) and got "Category D". I won't get conscripted even if there is a full mobilization. Proud of what I did.In the event of a civil war, I'm pretty sure that opens you up to being a refugee. You could cross a pretty good number of borders (i.e. the ones with unguarded bits) in that case if you don't mind spending a good bit of time being processed.
If needed (e.g there is a civil war), I can flee through the Kazakh border and figure out what to do next from there.
Post by: Starver on September 22, 2022, 03:20:47 pm
A) People have been served mobilisation papers who are not even in the stated mobilisation cohort,
B) There are semi-reliable mutterings that the 'limited mobilisation' proclamation has a publically-unreleased clause that actually allows up to a million such call-ups.
Meanwhile, large queues of vehicles trying to get to Georgia (one of the no-visa destinations), high volumes once again to Finland (visa required), certain destinations of airline tickets completely sold out (after skyrocketting in price) and variable reactions by the gamut of potential destination countries (from "yeah, you can come... with security checks of course" to just plain refusing all Russians entry).
So I pass on my hopes to those who may be directly affected, and of course if even a percentage point or two of these new-bods end up any good (and motivated, however that may be) in their assigned roles then I'm concerned for those who have to deal with their introduction upon the field of conflict (as well as what they have to do against those serving purely as cannon-fodder).
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 22, 2022, 08:22:26 pm
Post by: MorleyDev on September 22, 2022, 09:33:03 pm
* We have a deal but don't wanna say it.
* We had a deal, but China said no.
* We were negotiating a deal but it fell through.
Post by: Il Palazzo on September 23, 2022, 04:44:45 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 23, 2022, 06:59:57 am
Iran also denied supplying UAVs to Russia but now those are everywhere... Iranian drones seem to be much, much more dangerous than Russian ever were.
Post by: heydude6 on September 23, 2022, 09:47:25 am
Iran also denied supplying UAVs to Russia but now those are everywhere... Iranian drones seem to be much, much more dangerous than Russian ever were.
Wait really? For this war? That's awful.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 23, 2022, 11:23:35 am
Iran also denied supplying UAVs to Russia but now those are everywhere... Iranian drones seem to be much, much more dangerous than Russian ever were.
Wait really? For this war? That's awful.
Yep. Today a whole bunch of Shahed* loitering munition stroke Odesa. They are also common on the frontlines. Russia got hundreds if not thousands of Iranian drones.
*what Muslim will name a soulless piece of metal and plastic a shaheed? I am an anti-theist but even for me it sounds hypocritical and I think it is insulting to the majority of Muslims
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 23, 2022, 11:55:03 am
Post by: heydude6 on September 23, 2022, 02:44:07 pm
Post by: Starver on September 23, 2022, 02:54:29 pm
Post by: Magmacube_tr on September 23, 2022, 03:54:48 pm
I want to laugh. I want to laugh until I cry!
I feel so done. It just all keeps getting more absurd by the day.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 23, 2022, 07:46:56 pm
The fact that Russia seems to have any allies in this war is what worries me. I guess that's karma for the western sanctions on Iran from way back when.
Well, perhaps Iran will be free soon and stop being a Russian ally. Recent events give me hope.
Post by: martinuzz on September 23, 2022, 09:50:18 pm
I also pray my non-theistic prayers for Putin and his cronies to be assassinated and / or otherwise taken out of the equation.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 23, 2022, 10:03:08 pm
I pray for civil war erupting in Russia over the mobilisation. So far, it looks like the mobilisation is mostly limited to ethnic minorities. Possibly because the Kremlin know that if they are going to draft ethnic Russians, all revolution hell will rain down upon them.
I also pray my non-theistic prayers for Putin and his cronies to be assassinated and / or otherwise taken out of the equation.
I am afraid we won't see a civil war of this kind.
I am actually curious if Putin will announce "As you know, after evil Western sanctions we face an economical crisis. For the good of Russia, I decided to execute 10M of the least useful Russians. Ones who are chosen will be informed via an SMS. Please come to extermination centers ASAP", will it result in some kind of resistance or not?
Post by: KittyTac on September 23, 2022, 10:09:02 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on September 23, 2022, 10:28:11 pm
I pray for civil war erupting in Russia over the mobilisation. So far, it looks like the mobilisation is mostly limited to ethnic minorities. Possibly because the Kremlin know that if they are going to draft ethnic Russians, all revolution hell will rain down upon them.
I also pray my non-theistic prayers for Putin and his cronies to be assassinated and / or otherwise taken out of the equation.
I am afraid we won't see a civil war of this kind.
I am actually curious if Putin will announce "As you know, after evil Western sanctions we face an economical crisis. For the good of Russia, I decided to execute 10M of the least useful Russians. Ones who are chosen will be informed via an SMS. Please come to extermination centers ASAP", will it result in some kind of resistance or not?
Almost definitely. We are apathetic, but not that apathetic.
The parallel that Strongpoint is saying is that Conscription centers are basically the same as Extermination centers, yet no uprising is likely. Or is it? :-\
I think you both are mistaking "ally" for "person who will sell substandard goods at an extreme markup, AKA Price Gouger". Russia has no allies, just people willing to bank on earning a profit off the War. Eventually, the ability of Russia to trade for resources will collapse, then Russia is doomed.The fact that Russia seems to have any allies in this war is what worries me. I guess that's karma for the western sanctions on Iran from way back when.
Well, perhaps Iran will be free soon and stop being a Russian ally. Recent events give me hope.
Post by: KittyTac on September 23, 2022, 10:30:50 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on September 23, 2022, 10:50:07 pm
They might be objectively similar, but to people they are not. And honestly, unrest is mounting again even against conscription.Quite true. I was more pointing out a possible interpretation.
These are Interesting Times. - Ancient Chinese Curse
Post by: MorleyDev on September 24, 2022, 08:20:00 am
Post by: Starver on September 24, 2022, 12:46:07 pm
(Do they still exist? Or will do again (https://warhammer40k.fandom.com/wiki/Commissar)?)
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 24, 2022, 01:22:47 pm
In 1917, the United States declared war on the German Empire. The US military of the time was very small, and fighting in the Great War required a massive army. So they brought in a huge number of guys, gave them a proper level of training, and sent them to the front in huge numbers with excellent supply, facing an enemy that was already ground down near the breaking point by three years of brutal war. And the troops of the American Expeditionary Force fought less well than British and French units half their actual size, purely because they were raw troops.
In other words, even in the absolute best case scenario, trying to jam large numbers of fresh bodies into a war does not work well. And Russia's forces are not in a best-case scenario. They're undersupplied, increasingly poorly equipped, and badly led. Even worse, they're not facing an enemy that is ground to dust and on their last legs - the Ukranian forces are flush with victory, full of wrath at what has been done to them, and grow stronger by the day. If Russia manages to get large numbers of extra troops via this mobilization, they're either going to surrender en masse or simply be shot in great carload lots.
Post by: JoshuaFH on September 24, 2022, 01:50:33 pm
Post by: anewaname on September 24, 2022, 04:56:51 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
-----
Apparently the Russian conscription is just like every other conscription... use the expendables and un-desirables as a meat-shield. From a Jerusalem Post article (https://www.jpost.com/international/article-718043), "the Russian Federation seems to be disproportionately targeting rural communities and ethnic minorities far from Moscow, as well as protesters demonstrating against the mobilization."
Post by: Lidku on September 24, 2022, 05:07:52 pm
Given that Russia is cut off from the benefits of globalism, and that the mobilization is removing the young and strong from the already faltering economy, aren't the Russians in danger of mass starvation?
If (and when) the war finally ends, the next leader of Russia (or Putin, by some bizarre margin of him being still in power) will have to solicit the wider part of the world to lift sanctions to save itself; if not, it'll have to rely on its "allies", but that will go only so far if Russia outright admits defeat or basically informally does so.
China will be one of the firsts to diverge away from Russia in a large way. As of late, the relationship between Russia and China has been one of China increasingly being the "dominant" one, while Russia became more of a lackey (instead of them being peers as they were years ago). Now that dynamic will exacerbate after Russia's fiasco in Ukraine. China will also be pissed at Russia for losing so badly, because all it did was strengthen NATO's resolve and combat readiness for any future conflict (i.e Taiwan).
Iran and Russia are average allies at best. They help each other because they have the common interest of "beating back the West" (also, let's not forget they both had differing reasons for keeping Bashar al-Assad in power during the height of the Syrian Civil War). Iran has been reported with supplying Russia with drones this week, so it obviously wants Russia to come out on top here. Iran, like Russia, will be eventually subsumed in China's sphere of influence due to no other options.
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan see Russia's wavering military power and take that as a cue to begin fighting each other, despite both being in CSTO. Not only that, even with Armenia being directly attacked by Azerbaijan, Russia is lukewarm to do anything substantial to do anything against Azerbaijan; which makes sense, considering all its current concentration in Ukraine right now; though even before the initiation of the Special Military Operation, Russia only ever did the bare minimum in supporting Armenia.
Russia skirted a line between supporting both Armenia and Azerbaijan, while deferring more support to Azerbaijan... which was a stupid move, as Azerbaijan has repeatedly displayed it takes advantages of Russia's bizarre overtures toward it, sometimes covertly or outright overtly doing actions that supports the West. Especially now, with Azerbaijan acting as an alternative energy supplier while Russia tried to cut Europe off to gain more leverage.
Due to Russia being so flaky in aiding Armenia in general, it's pivoting alignment toward the West (as it was doing before, but at a more accelerated pace).
I won't be surprised if CSTO outright collapses after this.
India, besides Russia, has no real "major ally" and with it being so clingy with Russia despite its ever coming downfall, it's losing a lot of so-called "goodwill" with the West. India's clinginess to Russia makes sense, given how many times when it was the USSR that it helped India in multiple conflicts. India also is trending toward an illiberal quasi-totalitarian streak, which makes it have a much closer outlook with Russia than any of the Western states.
Russia also is a major weapons supplier to India... which is pretty bad from what're seeing and the general performance of the Russian armed forces in general. India has always tried to sway Russia in its orbit in a case where a conflict between India-and-China goes hot.. but that notion has always been stupid, as Russia depends more on China both militarily and economically than India could ever provide.
India should have dropped Russia sooner as their military incompetence became more evident, just as fast Russia would have probably dropped India if it ever got into another major conflict with China. Now its anchored itself to a sinking ship, all the while alienating itself from West even further.
Kazakhstan is what I see being a major detractor from Russia lately. With Russia's day-by-day depleting military prowess, prestige, and general loss of power projection, Kazakhstan will (and currently is) become more distant. Even if Russia tried to reinforce some of its soft-power and MAYBE imply the Russian populations that live in the northern part of Kazakhstan need some "liberation" or their rights are being "infringed upon", China has given security guarantees to Kazakhstan now. Any plans Russia might've had for Central Asia in the future have been decimated by China upseating its sphere of influence.
Russia's overall demographics have been REALLY bad since World War II, with their being an average of more females-to-males due to the tremendous loss of manpower to defeat Nazi Germany. Coupled with Russia's low life expectancy rate for males, highest rate of alcoholism, poor economic power beyond selling natural resources such as gas or oil.. Russia WILL face a major catastrophe of epic proportions from Putin's misguided gamble to wage a full-on attack on Ukraine.
I feel like their will be a mass migration of young and middle-aged people (like what's happening now with the announcement of "semi-mobilization") from Russia; a mass migration similar to what we saw with the Syrian civil war, but on a more devastating scale. This will be interesting to witness, considering the very negative sentiments Europeans have to Russians now.
The poor who will remain because they cannot afford to leave, will have the burden of trying to look after and care for the remaining elderly demographic of Russia. It will be a nightmare.
Don't be surprised if the whole "mail-order bride from Russia" stereotype becomes strengthened, as the monstrous ratio of women-to-men in Russia will be heightened by the future losses of the failed mobilization, along with the women in general wanting to flee the basically vanquished economy of Russia.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 24, 2022, 10:03:17 pm
комисса́ры?Surprisingly, no(t yet).
(Do they still exist? Or will do again (https://warhammer40k.fandom.com/wiki/Commissar)?)
Post by: EuchreJack on September 24, 2022, 10:32:17 pm
I would only add that India has always tried to position itself as a Third Party in the East vs. West. So they'll probably transition to playing China and the US against each other as Russia decreases in influence. They also have the UK to fall back on.
Post by: Starver on September 25, 2022, 06:26:11 am
(But, of course, I must stress that "The Empire", did derive many benefits, including often overlooked contributions in WW1 (especially), from Indian manpower. Hard to tell how history would have progressed with no (technically) united India in our experience of the eras concerned.)
...umm, yeah, anyway, yes, I think India is indeed looking to be "the disinterested party", forging its own path. It has its own issues to worry about, in a nation with intense problems for much of its population but also a top-ten position in the world for a space-programme (Lunar landers, interplanetary probes, human spaceflight planned for the not-distant future (training its candidates in Russia!) and other things, though not without stumbling blocks) and famously an aspiring tech-hub which shows its breadth of aspirations on the world stage even if it finds its people (and environment) awkwardly unmanagable much of the time. I think that's a holdover from past "governance from afar", to be fair, which has not always been gloriously perfect.
But of course this means it's just a change of government (or nuance) away from being at the very least subtly more or less supportive of any other government, under their particular brand of democracy/etc.
[1] Yes, Biden also did the flags at half-mast on buildings/vessels thing. Never heard so much about Patriot/Tea-Party objections to that. And amongst their ranks they have those who object if Biden even blinks, who probably also strongly suspect that he actually doesn't ever need to.
Post by: Lidku on September 25, 2022, 06:31:36 am
Interesting analysis by Lidku.
I would only add that India has always tried to position itself as a Third Party in the East vs. West. So they'll probably transition to playing China and the US against each other as Russia decreases in influence. They also have the UK to fall back on.
I don't know about India shifting toward China after Russia's coming decline. The right-wing and center-right base of India sees China as an ever-prescient enemy, especially in regard to the 2020 border skirmishes (and lets not forget all the previous 1962 and 1967 wars India and China had against each other). With the political outlook in India shifting more to the right, the relations between India and China will become more gridlocked toward hostility.
What will likely happen, is that India will have no choice but to steer more into the orbit of the West. It's something the various ruling political forces in India won't like, but will be their only remaining option after Russia's rapid dissipation of power and likely subsummation into China's direct sphere of influence after the war is over.
EDIT: Also, to add toward another part of your post I missed: the UK is becoming irrelevant day-by-day. It has basically been somewhat irrelevant for a while, but more-so after the economic slump it brought itself to after leaving the EU, and subsequently, the common EU market. The prices for everything than most places right now, are very high. Especially with regards to energy bill expenditures.
They should have planned for better energy independence before leaving the EU. Now the UK is screwed until they find a working alternative or find some deal to come back into the EU (at least in a semi-official capacity, as a means to get back into the EU common market).
India is VERY unlikely to fall back toward the UK. Especially with India's economy near-eclipsing or outright surpassing the UK multiple times in a quarter at some points.
Post by: Starver on September 25, 2022, 07:04:55 am
Now the UK is screwed until they find a working alternative or find some deal to come back into the EU (at least in a semi-official capacity, as a means to get back into the EU common market).Maybe we'll join the 'European club'! (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62967084) (Assuming they think they want us... de Gaulish sentiments might apply.) Much of what I think about how this has gone is not worth saying here, though.
Back on-thread, though: ...about those referenda... (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63013356)
Post by: Lidku on September 25, 2022, 11:04:00 am
If these referendums pass (and they likely will, given the fact that the occupying Russian army is largely administrating the voting process) and Ukraine just literally recovers the territory a few weeks after, it'll be DEVASTATING for Putin's already petering prestige he's built up over the years.
Though I'm deathly afraid of the tantrum he might exhibit if the above comes to pass... the nuclear threats Putin and his inner-circle have been proclaiming all throughout the war could quickly become a hasty-impotent-anger-filled reality...
The most moderate worst case scenario I can see, is after the referendums vie in the favor of "joining" Russia, Putin will just outright declare any direct advances into "Russian territory" as a carte blanche to begin a nuclear response. Such a stated directive might make Ukraine and Russia go into a quasi-ceasefire, with only intermittent skirmishes along their respective boundaries-of-control (basically the status quo of pre-February 2022).
While that takes place, Putin would use the opportunity of stymied fighting to use the mobilization to reinforce the newly "voluntarily annexed" regions as defensive measurements only... I just don't find it likely Russia will use forces with even LOWER morale and much LOWER training than the forces they currently have in the field now. Especially with them rapidly losing equipment they cannot reliably resupply. Russia actually using the mobilized troops as offensive forces would be a complete disaster.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 25, 2022, 12:47:11 pm
If this isn't the plan, I see no logic in those "referendums" whatsoever
Post by: Great Order on September 25, 2022, 12:53:47 pm
https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-putin-escapes-secret-palace-amid-anti-draft-protests-report-2022-9?r=US&IR=T
I hate to keep drawing parallels to history (no I don't) but now it's looking a bit French Revolution-y. Will we see the guillotine?
Post by: Lidku on September 25, 2022, 01:15:41 pm
then proceed to push with mobilized to capture what is left after nuclear strikes.
Remember the time Russia occupied Chernobyl? Remember when its soldiers were playing around in the Red Forest, the notoriously highly irradiated forest that came about some years after the disaster? Remember how they were making trenches in the highly irradiated parts in the exclusion zone?
Yeah.. Russia has NO strategic depth or knowledge on how to do military operations with territory that has irradiated terrain/environments.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 25, 2022, 01:58:04 pm
then proceed to push with mobilized to capture what is left after nuclear strikes.
Remember the time Russia occupied Chernobyl? Remember when its soldiers were playing around in the Red Forest, the notoriously highly irradiated forest that came about some years after the disaster? Remember how they were making trenches in the highly irradiated parts in the exclusion zone?
Yeah.. Russia has NO strategic depth or knowledge on how to do military operations with territory that has irradiated terrain/environments.
Russia has NO strategic depth or knowledge on how to do military operations. Period
It still conducts them. Besides, no one cares, even in Russia, if Russian soldiers will die.
I see no other logical explanation of this referendums circus, other than a thin excuse for using nuclear weapons. Sure, Russia did many illogical steps in this war and it may be one of them.
Post by: Great Order on September 25, 2022, 02:15:49 pm
Modern nuclear weapons produce little fallout. The majority is produced by ground detonations chucking up a load of now-radioactive dirt and dust. The issue with this is two-fold: 1) Producing fallout makes the areas you want to conquer way less valuable 2) ground detonations severely reduce the size of the explosion, and thus damagethen proceed to push with mobilized to capture what is left after nuclear strikes.
Remember the time Russia occupied Chernobyl? Remember when its soldiers were playing around in the Red Forest, the notoriously highly irradiated forest that came about some years after the disaster? Remember how they were making trenches in the highly irradiated parts in the exclusion zone?
Yeah.. Russia has NO strategic depth or knowledge on how to do military operations with territory that has irradiated terrain/environments.
So we do air bursts now. More damage, fewer long-term problems. Aside from everything else, like lowering the acceptable-use-of-nukes threshold at best and a nice, hour-long WW3 at worst.
Post by: hector13 on September 25, 2022, 02:59:50 pm
then proceed to push with mobilized to capture what is left after nuclear strikes.
Remember the time Russia occupied Chernobyl? Remember when its soldiers were playing around in the Red Forest, the notoriously highly irradiated forest that came about some years after the disaster? Remember how they were making trenches in the highly irradiated parts in the exclusion zone?
Yeah.. Russia has NO strategic depth or knowledge on how to do military operations with territory that has irradiated terrain/environments.
Russia has NO strategic depth or knowledge on how to do military operations. Period
It still conducts them. Besides, no one cares, even in Russia, if Russian soldiers will die.
I see no other logical explanation of this referendums circus, other than a thin excuse for using nuclear weapons. Sure, Russia did many illogical steps in this war and it may be one of them.
Nobody outside of Ukraine gave much of a shit about Crimea being annexed in 2014. Russia is probably hoping the same thing happens here when the referendum shows that citizens totally weren’t forced or intimidated by armed soldiers at their door to vote for annexation. The nuclear threat is presumably to stop Ukraine from trying to take these territories back.
Post by: Starver on September 25, 2022, 04:08:02 pm
The equation is significantly different now. Whether the conscience was already pricked by the prior 'liberation' and the inertia for respone has been acheived, or the active 'separatist' actions in Donbas primed the world to actually be paying attention, or just Putin didn't manage to use the prior sneaky subtlety of preparation (c'mon man, massive exercises of Russian troops handily just over the border..?) for the apparent necessity (but still insufficiency) of massive force he had to deploy this time round rather than just sprinkle a few Little Green Men on every street-corner.
The bear has not just plucked choice feathers from the nightingale's rump, this time. It has effectively poked a lot of the rest of the menagerie in the eye at the same time. Time will tell whether/how the fuss will die down, but right now its growling and snarling aren't having the effect of dominating the rest of the zoo like it perhaps may have hoped.
Post by: Lidku on September 25, 2022, 04:24:09 pm
The annexation of Crimea by Russia and what's happening now is leagues different. The 2014 acquisition of Crimea was mostly subtle and near-bloodless (heavy emphasis on the "near" part). What's going on now is more severe and the entire world has taken notice to this particular heightened conflict. Putin's gamble in this will fail miserably, just as the entirety of this Special Military Operation so far.
Post by: anewaname on September 25, 2022, 07:41:30 pm
Some western "news outlets" will use the referendums as a premise to say "Russia seems to have won this territory" then they will ask questions like:
- "should we demand Ukraine begin peace talks with Russia? [1]
- "should we stop sending weapons so Ukraine cannot attack Russian soil with them?
- "aren't civilians more upset about food/heating costs than about Ukraine?"
These things may not be true, but you know that narrative-promoters and their politicians repeat untrue things. Yes, I do mean these politicians are owned by the promoters-of-narratives...
The current agreements to send weapons to Ukraine, they rely on Ukraine not using them on Russian territory. What happens if some of the countries supporting Ukraine start fighting internally? Or if their civilians lessen their interest in supporting Ukraine due to problems closer to their home?
I don't expect the effort to succeed, but I expect the effort will be made and to have some effect.
[1] There was conspiracy theory, "the Russian/Ukraine peace talks were sabotaged by the radical-left administration so they could use Ukrainian soldiers to fight a proxy war against Russia". It will come back.
Post by: heydude6 on September 25, 2022, 10:45:07 pm
The current agreements to send weapons to Ukraine, they rely on Ukraine not using them on Russian territory.
It didn’t stop us from using them on Crimea. The precedent has already been set that annexed territory is not protected by these agreements.
Post by: MaxTheFox on September 25, 2022, 11:35:43 pm
Supposedly Putin's fled to a nice little forest resort.(https://c.tenor.com/FWpdTYvur1gAAAAM/revolution-guillotine.gif)
https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-putin-escapes-secret-palace-amid-anti-draft-protests-report-2022-9?r=US&IR=T
I hate to keep drawing parallels to history (no I don't) but now it's looking a bit French Revolution-y. Will we see the guillotine?
Post by: Strongpoint on September 26, 2022, 12:36:48 am
The current agreements to send weapons to Ukraine, they rely on Ukraine not using them on Russian territory.
Spoiler: a relevant meme (click to show/hide)
Post by: anewaname on September 26, 2022, 05:31:33 am
Post by: brewer bob on September 26, 2022, 09:23:50 am
Quote from: Twitter (https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1574272320071426049)
Video of a Russian man opening fire and killing the military commandant in a draft centre in the city of Úst-Ilimsk in Irkutsk region. The military commandant was the head of the local draft committee. He has died, according to reports.
https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1574272320071426049 (warning: video in link contains gun violence)
Hope more Russians start shooting their officers.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 26, 2022, 09:46:04 am
So, somebody did the right thing:Quote from: Twitter (https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1574272320071426049)Video of a Russian man opening fire and killing the military commandant in a draft centre in the city of Úst-Ilimsk in Irkutsk region. The military commandant was the head of the local draft committee. He has died, according to reports.
https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1574272320071426049 (warning: video in link contains gun violence)
Hope more Russians start shooting their officers.
Interestingly - reportedly, this man wasn't being mobilized, his best friend with zero military experience was (perhaps someone more than a friend?)
Post by: brewer bob on September 26, 2022, 10:40:24 am
So, somebody did the right thing:Quote from: Twitter (https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1574272320071426049)Video of a Russian man opening fire and killing the military commandant in a draft centre in the city of Úst-Ilimsk in Irkutsk region. The military commandant was the head of the local draft committee. He has died, according to reports.
https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1574272320071426049 (warning: video in link contains gun violence)
Hope more Russians start shooting their officers.
Interestingly - reportedly, this man wasn't being mobilized, his best friend with zero military experience was (perhaps someone more than a friend?)
Was about to ask for more info on this, but the other thread already had it. (Should've checked it first before posting, but hey, you can never have enough posts about shootings of officers!)
Post by: Strongpoint on September 26, 2022, 11:46:58 am
Will this guy receive a rusty AK and go to Ukraine?
Post by: hector13 on September 26, 2022, 12:15:39 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on September 26, 2022, 12:29:35 pm
IT workers are apparently protected from conscription.
It is Russia we are talking about. Their laws are... fluid
Post by: martinuzz on September 26, 2022, 12:31:47 pm
Post by: hector13 on September 26, 2022, 12:33:09 pm
IT workers are apparently protected from conscription.
It is Russia we are talking about. Their laws are... fluid
Fair point. What it probably means is state-sponsored troll farms and hacking groups are exempt.
Apparently Putin and co. have admitted errors in the mobilization process, and regional governors are working to fix them.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 26, 2022, 12:45:47 pm
I find it beyond hilarious how the Russian segment of internet DREAMs about a new world financial crisis to punish the Evil West as if it is a healthy thing for countries that sell raw materials
Post by: Starver on September 26, 2022, 06:20:34 pm
Just another example of Russia not liking non-binary people...do I NOT like NOR dislike this particular comment?
Post by: Great Order on September 26, 2022, 10:07:38 pm
Brent oil is $83 ATM. This is below pre-war levels. Should it keep falling, war will end sooner.Most people are woefully unaware of economic realities.
I find it beyond hilarious how the Russian segment of internet DREAMs about a new world financial crisis to punish the Evil West as if it is a healthy thing for countries that sell raw materials
I include myself among that, and probably everyone on the forum. Hell, I'd include a large number of economists.
Shit, I might include everyone, actually. The economy's too wild for anyone to make any sense of beyond predictions. We didn't believe in stagflation until it happened, for crying out loud.
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 27, 2022, 07:10:08 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on September 27, 2022, 07:30:54 am
Boy oh boy, I can't wait for the results of the referendums. The tensions is killing me.
Post by: Starver on September 27, 2022, 07:56:12 am
Post by: Magmacube_tr on September 27, 2022, 08:33:23 am
There's video going around that is supposedly of a failed Russian counterattack near Куп'янськ. I haven't watched it for the sake of my mental health, but people who have are describing it as "a massacre", "no armor, no tactics, head on charge, the Russians murdered their own men by sending them in". and "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD".
...How bad is it? From the scale of 1 to 10, should I look it up or not?
Post by: Strongpoint on September 27, 2022, 08:36:34 am
Even if we assume the most optimistic scenario for them, they annex new territories, threaten Ukraine with nukes if the advance will continue, then use a few tactical nukes against advancing troops, Ukraine folds and stops its counteroffensives... Then what?
Congratulations, you got some new territories, which are devastated by the war, full of disloyal and resisting population, with no options for any major business activity whatsoever. Everyone in the world knows that your army is so pathetic that you had to resort to nukes to prevent total defeat... You get new sanctions, your reputation is worse than North Korea's, etc
Post by: Strongpoint on September 27, 2022, 08:42:10 am
That's just Tuesday in Mother Russia, innit?
Boy oh boy, I can't wait for the results of the referendums. The tensions is killing me.
Here are preliminary results.
"DPR" - "for" - 97,91% (14% of votes)
"LPR" - "for" - 97,82% (13% of votes)
Zaporizhzhia region - "for" - 98% (20% of votes)
Kherson region - "for" - 97,47% (12% of votes)
Only a fraction of votes counted, everything can change!!!
Post by: Magmacube_tr on September 27, 2022, 08:43:36 am
Can anyone, anyone explain to me what is the Russian plan to win this war?
It started as a giant bluff by Putin, really.
Entire thing was gamble. Putin wanted to achieve his goals by what amounts to just sheer intimidation with not much to actually go after the said goals except for a large reputation. Russia lost when Ukraine didn't just laid down and died.
Now Putin has to continue. He rose the stakes too high for himself. If he fails, which he already has, Russian oligarchs will get him where he stands and eat him alive like crabs descending upon their injured kin.
There is no strategy anymore. Russia is a dead state walking now.
Post by: Great Order on September 27, 2022, 09:25:37 am
Can anyone, anyone explain to me what is the Russian plan to win this war?At this point they're flailing.
Even if we assume the most optimistic scenario for them, they annex new territories, threaten Ukraine with nukes if the advance will continue, then use a few tactical nukes against advancing troops, Ukraine folds and stops its counteroffensives... Then what?
Congratulations, you got some new territories, which are devastated by the war, full of disloyal and resisting population, with no options for any major business activity whatsoever. Everyone in the world knows that your army is so pathetic that you had to resort to nukes to prevent total defeat... You get new sanctions, your reputation is worse than North Korea's, etc
The original intent was "Capture Kyiv in three days, nobody sanctions us because it happened so fast". Their backup plan was "Make sure plan A doesn't fail"
In other words, they became cocky, probably between Crimea and Syria they probably assumed that Ukraine would be just as easy, failing to take into account that the West has infiltrated Russia like a tapeworm and actively took steps to inform Ukraine about everything going on, and Ukraine receiving both a boot up the backside in the form of Crimea's annexation AND expertise from the West, who spent a long time working out how to beat Russia in conventional warfare. Then you combine it with Russia's horrific corruption problems crippling their military, and you've wound up with them screwing themselves over. The issue is Putin can't back down without losing masses of support from the Russian public and politicians but he seems incapable of winning conventionally too.
So now they're at the "Throw shit at the wall and see what sticks" stage, with the possibility that Putin will get desperate enough to risk ending modern civilisation because he'd rather the world burn than him lose his position in it.
Russia's stuck in a position they neither expected nor wanted to be. This really, *really* wasn't the plan.
Post by: Quarque on September 27, 2022, 09:47:41 am
That's how the head of one of the largest intelligence agencies in the world could come to be so grossly misinformed about Ukraine.
Post by: Lidku on September 27, 2022, 06:24:20 pm
I think as of now and in the coming days, this entire Russian refugee crisis will be worse than the Syrian refugee crisis.
This is entire thing is looking REALLY bad than the badness it was a few weeks/months ago.
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 27, 2022, 07:47:03 pm
There's video going around that is supposedly of a failed Russian counterattack near Куп'янськ. I haven't watched it for the sake of my mental health, but people who have are describing it as "a massacre", "no armor, no tactics, head on charge, the Russians murdered their own men by sending them in". and "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD".
...How bad is it? From the scale of 1 to 10, should I look it up or not?
I haven't seen it, but from what I hear, the gore level is closer to a 15.
Post by: Strongpoint on September 28, 2022, 01:12:40 am
Remember a few posts ago when I said the Russian civilian exodus from Russia, will be like Syria?
I think as of now and in the coming days, this entire Russian refugee crisis will be worse than the Syrian refugee crisis.
This is entire thing is looking REALLY bad than the badness it was a few weeks/months ago.
Kazakhstan, Georgia, and Armenia will have very.... hmmm... entertaining times. Tens of thousands of Russian men will run out of their cash reserves in a few months and then the real fun will start. It is not like it is EU that can afford to feed a large mass of refugees. Those countries can't.
Post by: Magmacube_tr on September 28, 2022, 01:22:20 am
There's video going around that is supposedly of a failed Russian counterattack near Куп'янськ. I haven't watched it for the sake of my mental health, but people who have are describing it as "a massacre", "no armor, no tactics, head on charge, the Russians murdered their own men by sending them in". and "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD".
...How bad is it? From the scale of 1 to 10, should I look it up or not?
I haven't seen it, but from what I hear, the gore level is closer to a 15.
"HOLY MOTHER OF GOD"
Post by: Strongpoint on September 29, 2022, 03:15:19 pm
Among other news, a pocket around Lyman is about to close and it may be the largest Russian defeat to date. We have like 2-3 more weeks of decent weather before fronts will get stalemated by rains.
Post by: Great Order on September 29, 2022, 03:29:29 pm
One guess is that NATO will go and splatter the Black Sea fleet.
The issue's more if Russia starts doing "tests" as a provocation, but on their own soil. Then again, I suspect Ukraine might choose to ignore that.
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 30, 2022, 03:13:47 am
Most likely, it would begin with Russia's 20 favorite command bunkers and communications nexuses (nexi?) suddenly exploding, followed by an all out extermination campaign against Russian airpower.
Fortunately, even Russia probably isn't stupid enough to cross that Rubicon.
Post by: King Zultan on September 30, 2022, 03:41:05 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 30, 2022, 03:59:16 am
Post by: King Zultan on September 30, 2022, 04:03:36 am
Post by: Lidku on September 30, 2022, 04:59:00 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on September 30, 2022, 05:03:01 am
Post by: Lidku on September 30, 2022, 05:07:36 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 30, 2022, 07:38:00 am
1) Those lands are now part of the Great Mighty Russia and nothing can change that
and
2) Please, in the name of peace, please, please, please, Ukraine lets declare a ceasefire and start negotiating (but we keep annexed territories)
3) Russian history is great and glorious
4) West is evil
It is beyond pathetic
___________
BTW, dear Bay12-ers from Germany and Japan. Did you know that you are still occupied by the USA (since 1945). Putin said that you are and he wouldn't lie.
Post by: Great Order on September 30, 2022, 09:28:21 am
Post by: Strongpoint on September 30, 2022, 12:06:43 pm
Post by: MorleyDev on September 30, 2022, 01:13:47 pm
Quote from: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-63077272
Ahead of the event, there had been reports of people being paid to attend or being bussed in. Undoubtedly there were some in attendance who had gone voluntarily to "celebrate" the annexation.
But we spoke to many people who confirmed that they had been brought on buses as organised groups from towns outside of Moscow. Most were public sector workers. A lot of people we tried to speak to didn’t want to chat. They refused to say why they were there. One woman didn't know what the event was about.
Sounds like Putin forgot the part where you pay the people at the public event to cheer and to 'take note' those who aren't cheering...
Post by: ChairmanPoo on September 30, 2022, 05:59:52 pm
It is surreal... They are having a celebratory concert in Moscow right now... right when a chunk of the Russian army is being annihilated in Lyman. This is what makes Russia of 202x much worse than Germany 194x in my eyes. This new modernized version of fascism doesn't even care... doesn't even care to pretend that they care about their OWN people.Well OG nazis did plenty of that shit too so not really that different in that regard. Lamer exaggerated parody version, maybe, as historical repetitions tend to be.
I don't think they are really nazis, though. I think the whole Z thing was just a nation-level nazi cosplay, just like they did communist cosplaying without being anything even vaguely close to communists, or just like they are cosplaying being crusaders too (with Putin's insane pet patriarch calling for holy war against a country which by and large has exactly the same religion as he does, no less). The regime doesn't have much of a real ideology IMO and it is trying all this shit because they know that they have been cultivating apathy from the Russian populace for decades, and now they need desperatedly to find some way to motivate people into supporting their fuckup.
Putin himself is clearly a far right wing ultranationalist whackjob, but he doesnt have anywhere the same ideological/social encroachment, methinks. He's more like a Slobodan Milosevic with a bigger (but apparently not much better) army.
Post by: Great Order on October 01, 2022, 12:49:15 am
Of course, reality being what it is, I suspect a lot of German soldiers didn't find watching their friends and family die while getting PTSD particularly glorious. Funny how reality can butt up against ideology like that.
Post by: EuchreJack on October 01, 2022, 02:42:47 am
Was gonna say, the Nazis were very much pro-war. It was a glorious event to be celebrated, not something terrible to be shirked away from!
Of course, reality being what it is, I suspect a lot of German soldiers didn't find watching their friends and family die while getting PTSD particularly glorious. Funny how reality can butt up against ideology like that.
Most of the more Glorious events occurred before the War.
There also was a tone shift during the War.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 01, 2022, 03:12:25 am
Was gonna say, the Nazis were very much pro-war. It was a glorious event to be celebrated, not something terrible to be shirked away from!
Of course, reality being what it is, I suspect a lot of German soldiers didn't find watching their friends and family die while getting PTSD particularly glorious. Funny how reality can butt up against ideology like that.
Of course, they were pro-war. Of course, they had grandiose celebrations of victories. Of course, they said that dying for great Germany is cool! Of course, they hid bad news from the fronts.
BUT. The military were celebrities in the 3rd Reich. Only top Nazi party members were above them. And Germans obliviously cared about their soldiers. And Nazi leadership did a good job pretending that they care.
Post by: King Zultan on October 01, 2022, 03:36:03 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 01, 2022, 05:07:55 am
So what you guys are saying is that Putin is worse than Hitler, because he cares about nothing but whatever stupid ass thing he was trying to prove with this war.
No, I don't think one can be truly worse than Hitler, the best one can "achieve" is to get to his level of malevolence.
If Hitler had a fraction of genuine care about the German nation, he would have sent a bullet in his head way earlier, instead of causing unnecessary German deaths in a lost war.
I am comparing Russians and Germans, not Putin and Hitler.
Post by: EuchreJack on October 01, 2022, 10:51:09 am
It won't be until After the War that we have sufficient details to say.
I also doubt the use of trying to weigh who's more Evil.
Hitler was more competent, and thus was able to do more Evil. But he didn't have Nukes, so Putin has more potential for Evil.
I worry how this story ends.
Post by: Madman198237 on October 01, 2022, 10:57:59 am
Hitler may be the benchmark, but there's people above and around his personal level of absolutely-insane evil and to say that nobody could ever be that evil is....wrong, and also not a good way of thinking since it inherently seems to deny the possibility of Putin, say, ordering the mass murder of every male who could maybe be a Ukrainian soldier. Which has happened at least to some extent.
Post by: Great Order on October 01, 2022, 11:30:54 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 01, 2022, 11:32:36 am
Quote
wrong, and also not a good way of thinking since it inherently seems to deny the possibility of Putin, say, ordering the mass murder of every male who could maybe be a Ukrainian soldier
It would be roughly the same level of evil as the Holocaust, no?
Also, make no mistake, the total extermination of the Ukrainian nation IS the goal of this war. The difference with the Holocaust is that Germans believed in their racial theory and Jews had no escape in a form of becoming proper Germans.
Hitler is something so close to absolute, unrefined evil that arguments like " well Stalin was even worse because..." have no sense. They both reached levels where there are no redeeming qualities to seek, nothing to analyze
Post by: EuchreJack on October 01, 2022, 12:12:25 pm
Hitler had control of Western Europe for 5 years, and it took two years to get solid proof of the concentration camps.
Putin has little control of Ukraine, and the investigation is ongoing. And the war ain't over.
Yes, I think we can agree Putin is our century's Hitler.
Maybe we could move on for now?
Post by: Superdorf on October 01, 2022, 12:55:03 pm
(with Putin's insane pet patriarch calling for holy war against a country which by and large has exactly the same religion as he does, no less).
Talking of "emotional responses to war in Ukraine"...
Yankee dorf here. I grew up Catholic, we converted to Eastern Orthodoxy when I was around 13 (there's a good few Greek churches scattered around New England), and now I'm a college kid studying for the priesthood. It's been horrifying watching Russia, an essentially Orthodox nation, march against another essentially Orthodox nation. These people share a body in Christ, and they're killing each other. It's a cruel mockery of the faith.
Politics suck. I appreciate y'all for documenting the war so diligently on this subforum; this has been (weirdly) my main source of news on the matter.
Good strength Strongpoint, Max :-\
Post by: Random_Dragon on October 01, 2022, 01:18:41 pm
Yankee dorf here. I grew up Catholic, we converted to Eastern Orthodoxy when I was around 13 (there's a good few Greek churches scattered around New England), and now I'm a college kid studying for the priesthood. It's been horrifying watching Russia, an essentially Orthodox nation, march against another essentially Orthodox nation. These people share a body in Christ, and they're killing each other. It's a cruel mockery of the faith.
What's that much more mortifying from a theological standpoint is the Russian Orthodox Church's use as a weapon of propaganda.
Post by: Great Order on October 01, 2022, 01:29:48 pm
Same as it ever was.(with Putin's insane pet patriarch calling for holy war against a country which by and large has exactly the same religion as he does, no less).
Talking of "emotional responses to war in Ukraine"...
Yankee dorf here. I grew up Catholic, we converted to Eastern Orthodoxy when I was around 13 (there's a good few Greek churches scattered around New England), and now I'm a college kid studying for the priesthood. It's been horrifying watching Russia, an essentially Orthodox nation, march against another essentially Orthodox nation. These people share a body in Christ, and they're killing each other. It's a cruel mockery of the faith.
Politics suck. I appreciate y'all for documenting the war so diligently on this subforum; this has been (weirdly) my main source of news on the matter.
Good strength Strongpoint, Max :-\
Politics has always wielded religion like a hammer. If a group's too antsy, smack them with it. If a group's too influential, whack them with it. Neighbour has land you want? Whack them with it. You don't need any legitimate reason, just reasons that are legitimate enough.
Perhaps if we could disentangle politics and religion they'd both be in a somewhat better state, but as it is I think we're far too human to do that.
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 01, 2022, 07:28:41 pm
Post by: Madman198237 on October 01, 2022, 07:56:05 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on October 01, 2022, 08:02:28 pm
If what I am hearing is correct, Ukraine's apparently decided to skip their next scheduled conscription phase. That's a brilliant move from a diplomatic and propaganda perspective, but I am a little concerned about the military ramifications.
We skipped the spring conscription phase, too. Non-volunteer 18-20-year-olds are not really useful at frontlines. Yeah, it is illegal (in most cases) for males of military age to leave and Ukraine is keeping the option of drafting everyone (lets say if Russia will start a total mobilization) but it is merely an option.
We have more volunteer manpower than we can train and equip to reasonable standards.
(with Putin's insane pet patriarch calling for holy war against a country which by and large has exactly the same religion as he does, no less).
Talking of "emotional responses to war in Ukraine"...
Yankee dorf here. I grew up Catholic, we converted to Eastern Orthodoxy when I was around 13 (there's a good few Greek churches scattered around New England), and now I'm a college kid studying for the priesthood. It's been horrifying watching Russia, an essentially Orthodox nation, march against another essentially Orthodox nation. These people share a body in Christ, and they're killing each other. It's a cruel mockery of the faith.
Politics suck. I appreciate y'all for documenting the war so diligently on this subforum; this has been (weirdly) my main source of news on the matter.
Good strength Strongpoint, Max :-\
Man, I am an anti-theist and one of the big reasons why I am one is this war. I mean the war that started in 2014, not merely this phase.
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 01, 2022, 08:03:17 pm
Post by: KittyTac on October 01, 2022, 11:23:50 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on October 02, 2022, 01:51:37 am
American Catholics make the Pope cry.
Post by: King Zultan on October 02, 2022, 04:01:56 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 02, 2022, 07:06:37 am
I am Orthodox and I am ashamed.
Chances are that you aren't really an Eastern Orthodox Christian.
Chances are that you believe in the creator, immortal soul, hell and heaven, and a few other things. You identify as an orthodox Christian, because it is a "proper" self-identification for a non-atheist vaguely religious
No, sure, it may be that you do regularly read the Bible (preferable the canon one in Old Slavonic), read various works of saints, visit your local church at least once per few weeks, know, understand and believe dogmas of Orthodox Christianity, etc. But then 1) you are in a rather small minority. 2) It is strange that you aren't pro-war because the Russian Orthodox Church is.
Post by: KittyTac on October 02, 2022, 09:36:02 am
Just because I am part of the church doesn't mean I'm going to sheep its policy. Kinda annoying how you just say I'm not even Christian for it. It is what I identify most closely with.
Post by: MaxTheFox on October 02, 2022, 09:37:42 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 02, 2022, 10:03:09 am
Do I smell a religious shitfight coming in. That's a first for this thread, surprisingly.
You can't imagine how tempted I am... Kittycat's message is so full of stuff to comment on from an anti-theist's point of view. But this is a wrong thread for this.
Post by: KittyTac on October 02, 2022, 10:48:09 am
Post by: bloop_bleep on October 02, 2022, 11:44:12 am
As a denomination I probably like Orthodoxy the most as well. It seems the most morally rational.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 02, 2022, 01:10:59 pm
With weather forecasts for the coming weeks being unusually warm and dry October (which is great for an offensive), Russian mobilized soldiers may arrive way too late to stabilize the situation.
Post by: Great Order on October 02, 2022, 05:52:07 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on October 02, 2022, 06:18:27 pm
It is no good when your front consists of something like - 1 unit of special forces, 1 unit of regular infantry, 1 unit of marines, 1 unit of mobilized police, 1 unit of the national guard, 1 unit of volunteers of type A, 1 unit of volunteers type B, 1 unit of... Coordination suffers from stuff like this. And, unlike us, Russians are bad at self-organizing, they are used to centralized structures with one commander and hate initiative
Post by: MorleyDev on October 02, 2022, 09:52:58 pm
As they explained it, in a Western military units request supplies like ammunition and they are then 'pulled' down the chain to the toops. But in the Russian military, they have a lot less support troops compared to the 10:1 ratio the West likes. So supplies are 'pushed' down the chain from the top instead. Which means the troops are eternally juggling and balancing whatever limited supplies they were assigned to accomplish an objective, and so when in a situation where one side has a good pull supply lines setup whilst they are relying on push-based supply lines from what the people at the top think they'll need, they are screwed by a combination of superior logistics and poor intel processing at the top.
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 02, 2022, 09:57:49 pm
Post by: Great Order on October 02, 2022, 10:00:35 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 03, 2022, 04:57:11 am
Pretty sure that Ukraine's moved towards Western doctrines since Crimea. The West started training the Ukrainian military.The UK trained 18,000 since 2015 (https://uk.mfa.gov.ua/en/partnership/881-ukrajina-velika-britanija/operaciya-orbital) though the operation to train Ukrainians officially started in 2012, and USA military trainers had an active role in helping the Ukrainian army massively expand into a NATO interoparable fighting force around the same time (https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2017/10/ukraine-us-trains-army-west-fight-east/141577/)
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 03, 2022, 05:49:34 am
Now if the Russians lose donetsk then the entirety of their southern front will only able to be resupplied by sea and truck
Honestly Putin needs to be careful. At this point it is by choice that the Ukrainians don't walk over the border and start occupying Russian territory; already there has been shelling and air strikes on Belgorod, Putin should not be so arrogant as to assume war is something he inflicts on others, and not a fire that consumes everyone that partakes
Post by: scriver on October 03, 2022, 07:36:29 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 03, 2022, 08:31:49 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 03, 2022, 11:13:08 am
Post by: Madman198237 on October 03, 2022, 11:18:00 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 03, 2022, 11:35:13 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 03, 2022, 11:37:46 am
Khrushchev’s mistake... *facepalms*
Post by: JoshuaFH on October 03, 2022, 11:43:39 am
Post by: Great Order on October 03, 2022, 11:46:59 am
Post by: JoshuaFH on October 03, 2022, 12:07:40 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on October 03, 2022, 12:34:09 pm
Sure, when you are saying something stupid AND offensive to millions of people on a huge social media account, those angry thousands are bots.
I am so happy that this conman is unable to buy Twitter.
Post by: brewer bob on October 03, 2022, 12:43:32 pm
I really can't fit it into my head why so many people think highly of him.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 03, 2022, 01:19:38 pm
I really can't fit it into my head why so many people think highly of him.
This is easy. Like any conman, he sells dreams and easy solutions. People like this.
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 03, 2022, 01:24:16 pm
God, Musk is probably one of the most uselessSame way there are people who are famous for being famous. There are people who like Musk because they buy into the marketing that says he is likablepeoplerich pricks in the world.
I really can't fit it into my head why so many people think highly of him.
Post by: Il Palazzo on October 03, 2022, 01:45:38 pm
This is easy. Like any conman, he sells dreams and easy solutions. People like this.Sounds to me like you're selling an easy solution to the Musk problem. I like this, but can I have a dream with that?
Post by: Starver on October 03, 2022, 04:12:59 pm
Only if you're prepared to take all your school exams again, with unintelligable question papers for subjects that you've not revised for. And you're naked!This is easy. Like any conman, he sells dreams and easy solutions. People like this.Sounds to me like you're selling an easy solution to the Musk problem. I like this, but can I have a dream with that?
Post by: Il Palazzo on October 03, 2022, 04:48:54 pm
Btw, ain't it funny how the stereotypical nightmare is a play on adults' memories of school, but they still insist on sending their kids there?
Post by: EuchreJack on October 03, 2022, 08:47:06 pm
Post by: King Zultan on October 04, 2022, 03:23:36 am
Post by: Starver on October 04, 2022, 03:45:46 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 04, 2022, 05:39:14 am
Btw, ain't it funny how the stereotypical nightmare is a play on adults' memories of school, but they still insist on sending their kids there?
The "back at school" nightmare generally isn't "school was so horrible!", but generally "oh shit, I'm completely behind and totally unprepared for anything!". The most likely cause is that your brain is recontextualizing your adult anxieties as part of maintenance processes. The naked part is simpler - it probably means you're cold, and should be wearing something more substantial to bed.
Post by: Il Palazzo on October 04, 2022, 06:38:48 am
And with this clever allusion to mofo pricks, I have thus rerailed the thread onto the topic of invading Russians. Or, should we start referring to them as retreating Russians?
Post by: Magmacube_tr on October 04, 2022, 07:14:35 am
I disagree with your not-toasty enough theory and posit that it's all ptsd. Or maybe it's about penises and wanting to have sex with one's mum.
Sigged.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 04, 2022, 07:15:44 am
I disagree with your not-toasty enough theory and posit that it's all ptsd. Or maybe it's about penises and wanting to have sex with one's mum.
And with this clever allusion to mofo pricks, I have thus rerailed the thread onto the topic of invading Russians. Or, should we start referring to them as retreating Russians?
Guys, while I also enjoy laughing at Russians... Let's not forget that this war is far from over.
The most optimistic scenario is that in the next few weeks Russians will be pushed as far as the fortified pre-February contact line on the Luhansk front and to the Dnipro river on the Kherson front. Then bad weather will come and active movements will likely stop until January when the ground will freeze and offensives will be possible again.
It means Russia will have time to bring in their reserves, restore combat-readiness of their units and begin yet another stage of the war.
Post by: Magmacube_tr on October 04, 2022, 07:17:28 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on October 04, 2022, 07:19:23 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 04, 2022, 07:38:05 am
It means Russia will have time to bring in their reserves, restore combat-readiness of their units and begin yet another stage of the war.
That's far from assured. The mud season is going to make Russian logistics even more strongly constrained to road and rail networks than they already are, and Ukraine will continue to be supplied with GMLRS ammunition. Or, in other words, the mud is going to impair Russia's ability to bring more shit up much more severely than it will degrade Ukraine's ability to destroy said shit. Not to mention that Russia's reserves and mobilized conscripts are being provided with jack shit in terms of equipment, including cold weather gear.
An operational pause for a few months will also give Ukraine the ability to pull all their equipment back into the depots for badly-needed maintenance, including the vast glut of combat vehicles that Russia has so generously supplied them with. Wanting to avoid overconfidence is fine, but there's a very real possibility that Russia will be weaker, and Ukraine stronger, when winter restarts the war after the mud comes.
Post by: King Zultan on October 05, 2022, 02:44:25 am
Post by: scriver on October 05, 2022, 04:12:38 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 05, 2022, 04:52:13 am
Isn't mud season not until another six months give or take, when the frost leaves
That is the second one. While spring rasputitsa is usually more severe, autumn mud is also more than enough to mess with offensives (a major factor why Germans failed to reach Moscow). This autumn is unusually warm and dry but rains will come.
Post by: Eric Blank on October 05, 2022, 01:57:31 pm
Post by: Bralbaard on October 05, 2022, 02:07:18 pm
I feel like im learning a lot about how to avoid catastrophic failures while invading russia hereAnd Russia is learning a lot about catastrophic failures while invading Ukraine.
Post by: Great Order on October 05, 2022, 02:12:24 pm
Post by: Magmacube_tr on October 05, 2022, 03:25:58 pm
My favourite comment so far is probably that Russia's got exceptional logistics. After all, they're managing to get so much equipment behind enemy lines.
lel
Post by: Eric Blank on October 05, 2022, 05:25:56 pm
If theyd mobilized nothing but fuel trucks theyd have been in kyiv in half an hour, the Ukrainian military would be so swamped in excess fuel trucks they wouldnt be able to liberate the bars from all the drunk Ruskies.
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 06, 2022, 05:25:17 am
Are we getting to the part where Russia starts sending the soldiers out with whatever they can steal from civilians?
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: brewer bob on October 06, 2022, 07:49:30 am
Are we getting to the part where Russia starts sending the soldiers out with whatever they can steal from civilians?They already doSpoiler (click to show/hide)
"These Disney sheets will make a great camouflage."
Post by: Starver on October 06, 2022, 08:22:47 am
(I'm sure I'd already done the "Mickey Mouse military" joke, when this first came up.)
Post by: King Zultan on October 07, 2022, 03:36:48 am
Post by: Starver on October 07, 2022, 05:05:45 am
(Ok, so the heavy duvet coverlet, that was included, weighed at least as much as an armoured car. And the way I draped it over the bedside chair (I thought of it more as a blanket-submarine!) gave it a capacious rigidity (and, theoretically, a slope to its 'armour') far in excess of that useless 'blanket plating'. Mine would have easily withstood an imaginary anti-tank weapon!)
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 07, 2022, 06:10:35 am
Post by: Great Order on October 07, 2022, 07:16:26 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 07, 2022, 07:19:13 am
There's something depressing about the fact I'm not even surprised.
We'll witness way worse stuff when Kherson will be liberated. And way, way worse stuff after the liberation of Mariupol.
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 07, 2022, 08:45:50 am
Post by: Magmacube_tr on October 07, 2022, 12:41:55 pm
There's something depressing about the fact I'm not even surprised.
Tell me about it. I couldn't even find in it myself to flinch. This is wrong on so many levels.
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 07, 2022, 12:56:37 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on October 08, 2022, 12:22:55 am
Post by: Magmacube_tr on October 08, 2022, 03:42:28 am
Russians don't know what a toilet is.
Well they do, but they apparently have no idea how to operate one
There are videos on the internet where the russians had dug sewage holes on the floors of homes they were staying in instead of using the toilets just next door with still running water on.
Major L man.
Yea, look it up. I couldn't believe it too at first. But it is real.
Oh, and they steal the toilets as well. Yes. Really. I thought it was a silly lie to make Russia look bad. But it is real.
lol
Post by: King Zultan on October 08, 2022, 03:58:04 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 08, 2022, 04:00:33 am
Yay! Ukraine struck the Kerch bridge linking Russia and Crimea. There is quite substantial damage.
The rail portion of the bridge was on fire for a long time, extent of damage unknown.
The road portion now runs beneath the sea.
It is difficult to overstate how critical this bridge is. There's only a few major land routes that connect Crimea and the Kherson territory to Russia, and that bridge is the only one that's not imperiled by Ukrainian ground forces. Actual track still runs through territory that Ukraine won't reach any time soon, and it is possible to route trains along those paths, but the big nexi are either facing liberation or were absolutely wrecked in the initial conquest. That's going to massively increase not just the transit time for vital supplies, but the possibility that trains will back up long enough for the Ukranian military to target them with GMLRS systems. Losing the road is a Very Bad Thing for Russia. If they lose the rail link too, it's a potentially deadly wound in and of itself. Not something that will end the war, but it would be ruinous to their plans to defend against further offensives, not to mention making offensives of their own pretty much impossible.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 08, 2022, 06:26:56 am
(https://defence-blog.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/FPQSyrIXEAAm6Xb.jpg)
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 08, 2022, 07:09:26 am
Post by: brewer bob on October 08, 2022, 08:28:23 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 08, 2022, 11:22:38 am
Rail bridge is in one piece with burnt remains of a fuel train still standing there. The extent of damage is unknown but a fire of such intensity may have compromised the structural integrity of the steel.
Post by: Il Palazzo on October 08, 2022, 11:24:53 am
Post by: Magmacube_tr on October 08, 2022, 12:04:11 pm
Are you saying train fuel can melt steel beams?
I think the damage was due to expansion of the steel. Maybe it snapped in multiple places and became unpassable?
Post by: hector13 on October 08, 2022, 12:06:37 pm
A bit cheeky of them to suggest Ukraine has terroristic tendencies when they have targeted schools, hospitals, shopping malls, and theatres during their own campaign of terror.
Post by: anewaname on October 08, 2022, 06:00:21 pm
It could have been train fuel in the tanks, but it probably wasn't. The fuel tanks were part of the hauled cargo.
Post by: Il Palazzo on October 08, 2022, 06:04:44 pm
Post by: anewaname on October 08, 2022, 06:14:38 pm
Post by: brewer bob on October 08, 2022, 06:20:51 pm
Are you saying train fuel can melt steel beams?
So that's what they used!
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 08, 2022, 06:30:22 pm
Lord. If there was a window of time between 'too soon' and 'I don't get the reference' to be making 9/11 jokes, I must have missed it.
9/11 was 21 years ago. "Jet fuel can't melt steel beams" hasn't been anything but a meme (as in, nobody in any quantity seriously believes it)for at least 15. Memes have a limited lifespan.
Post by: Il Palazzo on October 08, 2022, 06:31:55 pm
Post by: hector13 on October 08, 2022, 06:34:25 pm
Unless internet translators lie.
Post by: Starver on October 09, 2022, 06:51:59 am
Post by: Random_Dragon on October 09, 2022, 11:43:15 am
Моє судно на повітряній подушці повне вугрів
...google translate tells me that says "My hovercraft is full of eels" in Ukrainian, and "My ship is on a pillow on the top of the hill" in Russian.
Post by: MCreeper on October 09, 2022, 11:52:56 am
Post by: Starver on October 09, 2022, 12:58:07 pm
(Yeah, "ship on a pillow" sounds like a likely technical term, but obviously only the particular one in common use in Ukraine, then. (Russian seems to be судно на воздушной - "ship on air"?) The relationship with eels (Russian: угри) and being on the top of hills (Rus: вершина холма?) currently escapes me. Though the cathedral city of Ely (sometimes, and problematically) is ascribed to being named as the "District of Eels", within which the settlement is sat upon its hill... And we all know how much Russians are so culturally attached to random details of English cathedrals, right?!?)
...we now return you to your regular programme.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 09, 2022, 03:03:44 pm
If Elon will, in fact, buy Twitter, I'll delete my account on day 1...
Post by: martinuzz on October 09, 2022, 03:09:29 pm
If Elon will, in fact, buy Twitter, I'll delete my account on day 1...You don't need to wait for Elon to take over. Twitter is utter shite as it is. Just delete your account right now.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on October 09, 2022, 03:38:51 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on October 09, 2022, 04:42:44 pm
Please, anyone, make Elon Musk shut up... I am tired of seeing him (and people discussing his idiotic war-related messages) on my Twitter feed
If Elon will, in fact, buy Twitter, I'll delete my account on day 1...
[Laughs in not having a twitter account in the first place]
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Strongpoint on October 10, 2022, 12:29:33 am
If Elon will, in fact, buy Twitter, I'll delete my account on day 1...You don't need to wait for Elon to take over. Twitter is utter shite as it is. Just delete your account right now.
For me, Twitter is the best social network and I enjoy it quite a lot. It is a really fast way to get information, it has a great pool of memes and it has quite liberal and fair moderation.
Post by: MaxTheFox on October 10, 2022, 12:44:00 am
https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_Hungarian_PhrasebookA hovercraft in Russian is called a "ship on an air pillow". Суддно на воздушной подушке.
(Yeah, "ship on a pillow" sounds like a likely technical term, but obviously only the particular one in common use in Ukraine, then. (Russian seems to be судно на воздушной - "ship on air"?) The relationship with eels (Russian: угри) and being on the top of hills (Rus: вершина холма?) currently escapes me. Though the cathedral city of Ely (sometimes, and problematically) is ascribed to being named as the "District of Eels", within which the settlement is sat upon its hill... And we all know how much Russians are so culturally attached to random details of English cathedrals, right?!?)
...we now return you to your regular programme.
Post by: Starver on October 10, 2022, 03:05:08 am
A hovercraft in Russian is called a "ship on an air pillow". Суддно на воздушной подушке....I'd say that the recent (incomplete!) research on the subject, and your clarification, has taught me something new. But mostly I'm going to forget almost all this again quite quickly, sorry. ;)
(About the only thing I cannot forget, apart from mostly reading Cyrillic as if it's Greek (which I then mostly read as algebra!) is the very very old joke about the visitor to Russia who thought the word for "Restaurant" was pronounced something like /Pek-toe-pah/.)
Post by: King Zultan on October 10, 2022, 04:29:41 am
Post by: Bralbaard on October 10, 2022, 05:00:20 am
Needs confirmation, but if true this, and the attacks on ukrainian cities today point at Putin choosing further escalation.
Post by: MaxTheFox on October 10, 2022, 05:10:54 am
Post by: Magmacube_tr on October 10, 2022, 05:17:03 am
100 pages.
Let this milestone be a place of respite for future generations to come!
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 10, 2022, 05:25:42 am
Use twitter viewer sites like nitter to browse twitter without an accountSpoiler (click to show/hide)
Apparently Bornholm, the island near the Nordstream leaks is having a complete power outage, possibly because undersea cables have been cut.Not surprising since the Russian Navy has been pushed to use force to project power in their neighbouring waters. Yet I'd give them the benefit of the doubt here until more information comes out; undersea cables can get damaged in any number of ways and this could just be poor timing. This cable has been damaged in the past by someone's anchor getting caught in it for example (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/danish-baltic-sea-island-suffers-power-blackout-after-transformer-outage-2022-10-10/) and these sorts of cables can be damaged by sealife, by earthquakes, passing ship traffic e.t.c.
Needs confirmation, but if true this, and the attacks on ukrainian cities today point at Putin choosing further escalation.
Post by: Bralbaard on October 10, 2022, 05:47:54 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 10, 2022, 05:50:21 am
Post by: Starver on October 10, 2022, 06:48:39 am
I forgot why do we need to know how to say hovercraft in Russian?
Absolutely no reason.
But, if you'll forgive a totally unrelated diversion while I'm passing through, I happen to have a stock of anguilla. If anyone wants any, I can deliver them to you. Almost anywhere that's not up a steep slope or across a cattle-grid, that is.
Post by: brewer bob on October 10, 2022, 12:39:38 pm
Spoiler: Sergei Surovikin vs. Dr. Evil (click to show/hide)
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 10, 2022, 01:07:06 pm
Post by: Starver on October 10, 2022, 06:44:05 pm
Post by: King Zultan on October 11, 2022, 04:59:19 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 11, 2022, 07:19:16 am
Post by: brewer bob on October 11, 2022, 07:21:54 am
But does he have is own mini me?
I'd guess that would be Putin. He is, after all, quite the short fellow.
Post by: MaxTheFox on October 11, 2022, 07:23:16 am
Meanwhile, Russia added Meta to its list of terrorist and extremist organizationsThat was long ago. But yeah, any company that stands up to Russia is at risk of that. Not that they're exactly saints themselves tbh.
Post by: MCreeper on October 12, 2022, 05:52:11 am
Post by: Random_Dragon on October 13, 2022, 06:04:25 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
This is why I refuse to let it be forgotten that DDA's dev team still keeps this guy around.
Post by: MaxTheFox on October 13, 2022, 06:33:33 am
But I'm biased since I agree with DDA's direction of development. :P
Post by: KittyTac on October 13, 2022, 07:09:10 am
To put the thread back on rails...
(https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/828789397288779777/1029868335455801354/unknown.png)
Post by: scriver on October 13, 2022, 10:28:34 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on October 13, 2022, 10:30:49 am
It's even stranger considering CDDA is obviously anti-ZI like calling those who suck up to Putin "Z-ombies".
Post by: Strongpoint on October 13, 2022, 10:31:08 am
Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy
I like hearing this. I really like hearing this and not some vague "Russia will face severe consequences"
Post by: MaxTheFox on October 13, 2022, 10:33:24 am
Post by: Starver on October 13, 2022, 10:59:33 am
Post by: Random_Dragon on October 13, 2022, 11:07:04 am
It's even stranger considering CDDA is obviously anti-Z
Nominally but it does demonstrate that there's a level of hypocrisy at work, so long as Serg keeps those opinions on reddit and out of their server I guess...
Anyway, that sounds better but my worry is any genuine attempt to intervene more directly will probably just mean Putin starts nuking the intervening countries too, and that's probably going to get Russian cities glassed if any of the targeted countries are nuclear-capable... :/
Post by: KittyTac on October 13, 2022, 11:27:14 am
Post by: Random_Dragon on October 13, 2022, 11:29:06 am
I think scriver was making a joke about zombies being represented with the letter Z in the game's ASCII mode. And now the joke's dead from being explained, like a dissected frog.
Since it was brought up that their servers normally do a good job of keeping pro-Putin trolls out (unless they're in the dev team and willing to keep their shitposting elsewhere, evidently) I assumed it was following up on what Max had already said, hecc.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 13, 2022, 11:35:11 am
Anyway, that sounds better but my worry is any genuine attempt to intervene more directly will probably just mean Putin starts nuking the intervening countries too, and that's probably going to get Russian cities glassed if any of the targeted countries are nuclear-capable... :/
Or Russian generals will do a sensible thing and surrender after the first NATO strike. Or, better, ignore Putin's order to use nukes on Ukraine believing that NATO will strike
I am quite confident that Russian nuclear arsenal is in an awful state and while Russia is capable of finding a few dozen of working strategic nukes and evaporating many millions, there being not capable to bringing even 1/20th of the planetary-scale Destruction USSR could.
Post by: Great Order on October 13, 2022, 05:20:35 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on October 13, 2022, 10:18:46 pm
Hell, are we sure Russia even has nukes and the enriched uranium heads haven't been sold off to be used as heaters in grow ops or something?
USA spends ~$5 millions per nuke annually to keep those in a good working order. Russia has lower salaries and a lot of stuff is cheaper so lets's assume it is $1 million per nuke per year.
It is still a lot of money to steal. And it is hard to find that this money was stolen. For tanks or aircrafts, there are regular exercises, you can physically check if those shells are in a warehouse... Checking if all nukes underwent necessary maintenance is very problematic.
Problem is that even if 10% of Russian nukes are working as intended, it is enough to cause huge damage on a planetary scale and their army isn't as ruined to assume that it is less than that.
Post by: EuchreJack on October 13, 2022, 11:00:20 pm
"Destroying the Nuclear Silos in protest" sounds like a decent way out. I mean, look at all the ammo dumps and fuel depot's that have "been destroyed by terrorists".
Post by: Strongpoint on October 13, 2022, 11:53:47 pm
Yes, and look at how the Russian tanks and aircraft have been doing.
They are doing fine. It is not like we witness many Russian fighter jets spontaneously exploding or Russian tanks being unable to shoot*.
*it is changing now because more and more tanks are pulled out of deep storage
Post by: martinuzz on October 14, 2022, 01:36:32 am
Post by: hector13 on October 14, 2022, 01:51:01 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 14, 2022, 02:44:28 am
I keep wondering about the lack of air power used by the Russians. Are their planes really that afraid of the Ukrainian anti-air defenses, are they really poorly maintained? Or is Putin holding back his air force in the case he needs it for WW3?
Yes, they are that afraid. Ukrainian air defense is the biggest surprise of the war. We found out that Soviet 1980s era air-defense is still quite deadly when used properly (especially when paired with modern NATO's detection tools).
Also, never in its history, Russia tried a war against a country with an adequate number of SAMs. They don't know how to do it.
BTW, Ukraine claims 268 destroyed Russian jets and it is one of the numbers I don't trust at all. Aircraft losses are highly visible and we would see the majority of those 268 visually confirmed (Oryx confirms 61 Russian combat jets lost... And 47 Ukrainian, our airforce is fighting heroically but in the end, their hardware is just too old)
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 14, 2022, 04:34:16 am
I keep wondering about the lack of air power used by the Russians. Are their planes really that afraid of the Ukrainian anti-air defenses, are they really poorly maintained? Or is Putin holding back his air force in the case he needs it for WW3?
Yes
Russia's airforce is almost certainly gutted the same way their tank forces are (remember that they were supposed to have thousands of late-model T-72s in storage that turned out to be empty husks), and aircraft are more vulnerable to poor maintenance, have more valuable parts, and are made in much lower numbers.
Russia is demonstrably afraid of Ukranian air defenses. Even MANPADS* have inflicted a terrible cost on Russian fixed-wing aviation (including a number of aircraft that were able to get back to base after being hit, but will very clearly never fly again), and Ukraine's real SAMs have proven to be quite vicious (which will become even more true now that the first real Western SAM systems (based on the AIM-120 AMRAAM) are starting to arrive, which will vastly improve the ammunition supply) even if they've done more work shooting down terror missiles than planes. Russia has refused to operate heavy bombers in any capacity other than long-range missile yeeters, and most of the tactical air we've seen was flying extremely low to avoid attack (which is what made them vulnerable to MANPADS in the first place.
A fair portion of Russia's air forces are still stationed in Russia itself, in the increasingly laughable hope that they can stand against a NATO assault, and less absurdly to fend off any further Ukrainan air attacks.
BTW, Ukraine claims 268 destroyed Russian jets and it is one of the numbers I don't trust at all. Aircraft losses are highly visible and we would see the majority of those 268 visually confirmed (Oryx confirms 61 Russian combat jets lost... And 47 Ukrainian, our airforce is fighting heroically but in the end, their hardware is just too old)
Is the claim you're mentioning referring to aircraft destroyed or aircraft shot down. Ukraine has launched a number of airfield deep strikes that almost certainly destroyed planes on the ground (including, possibly, as much as 20% of Russia's operational Tu-22M Backfire bombers), and those aren't in the Oryx data. Oryx data also wouldn't include the several strike craft that ate a MANPAD and flew home but were obviously a total loss.
*MANPAD = MAN Portable Air Defense - Stinger, Starstreak, Igla. An anti-aircraft missile carried by one soldier and fired like a bazooka.
Post by: King Zultan on October 14, 2022, 04:36:35 am
Post by: Magmacube_tr on October 14, 2022, 05:50:05 am
So since Russia is probably afraid of potentially being invaded are they gonna nuke themselves and say that Ukrainian terrorist did it?
lol
They might as well. This entire situation is getting more and more ridiculous by the day.
Post by: Starver on October 14, 2022, 08:09:21 am
(c.f. my last reply to Max, at least in part inspired by that possibility. Luckily, Max isn't in one of the more prime spots for a bit of creative intentional self-destruction to that end, more likely only somewhere that an unintentional accident would happen.)
Might need an as-yet distant level of desperation to put into action, but if they haven't a plan for it being kept in reserve (by a "think the unthinkable" strategic department, as with any other nation with such possibilities, identifying places just strategic enough to be imaginable, but not actually self-crippling to some arbitrary extent) then I'd be surprised. But it could just as easily be an unplanned thing, or an accident, or true disaffection. Probably far more so than a "false-false-flag" clever plot by Ukraine
Post by: Robsoie on October 14, 2022, 10:44:59 am
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/macron-rules-out-nuclear-response-if-russia-nukes-ukraine-could-embolden-putin/ar-AA12VgIj
The concept of nuclear detterence can only work if the other guy can't be certain you're not going to nuke them if they start shooting nuclear missiles.
But telling Russia that they'll do nothing if Russia nukes Ukraine, that's some big level of irresponsibility,
Post by: Strongpoint on October 14, 2022, 10:52:28 am
____________
Once again, there are rumors about Belarus joining the war SOON (tm). I think it is the same deal as always - way to keep some Ukrainian troops on the border but I wouldn't say that it is impossible considering how desperate Russia is.
Post by: hector13 on October 14, 2022, 10:57:25 am
If Biden said something like that, it would be a problem, as they’re the only country on par with Russia with nuclear weapons in terms of numbers.
Post by: Robsoie on October 14, 2022, 11:13:24 am
https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2020/nuclear-weapon-modernization-continues-outlook-arms-control-bleak-new-sipri-yearbook-out-now
After that the importance is what kind of warhead comes with it, you can compare the various nuke yield there to see in comparison to the one used by americans at Hiroshima and Nagasaki :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon_yield
Post by: hector13 on October 14, 2022, 11:18:25 am
MAD is just that. Wishing for it is the same.
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 14, 2022, 11:27:08 am
Post by: Robsoie on October 14, 2022, 12:05:23 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 14, 2022, 12:09:25 pm
Post by: Robsoie on October 14, 2022, 12:14:26 pm
MAD is a part of the detterence system, as it is a guarantee of total destruction, and yeah only Russia and USA have that capacity that is very obvious .
Post by: hector13 on October 14, 2022, 12:35:19 pm
Putin isn’t any more likely to use nukes in Ukraine because of Macron’s announcement.
Post by: EuchreJack on October 15, 2022, 06:19:23 am
Seems kinda stupid, since I doubt the radioactive fallout will respect national borders.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 15, 2022, 10:08:23 am
(Imagine if Hitler would be able to nuke London and\or Moscow in April 1945, do you think he wouldn't? Here is the same thing.)
Post by: Il Palazzo on October 15, 2022, 10:47:05 am
(Imagine if Hitler would be able to nuke London and\or Moscow in April 1945, do you think he wouldn't? Here is the same thing.)No, it obviously isn't. Nobody's contemplating invading Russia proper and throwing Putin in a ditch, covered in petrol, on fire.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 15, 2022, 11:00:54 am
(Imagine if Hitler would be able to nuke London and\or Moscow in April 1945, do you think he wouldn't? Here is the same thing.)No, it obviously isn't. Nobody's contemplating invading Russia proper and throwing Putin in a ditch, covered in petrol, on fire.
Russian people can forgive everything to their dictator. Except a humiliating defeat. In the very first moment after the last Russian troops will retreat from Ukraine, Putin will be doomed and he knows that.
Post by: Il Palazzo on October 15, 2022, 11:06:13 am
Post by: Random_Dragon on October 15, 2022, 11:24:53 am
I really don't think anyone would start a nuclear war to stay in power. It would defeat the purpose, see?
The fact that it's even on the minds of people as something Putin might hypothetically do answers your question there.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 15, 2022, 11:35:18 am
I really don't think anyone would start a nuclear war to stay in power. It would defeat the purpose, see?
Well
1) If I'll go, I'll not go alone
2) There is a chance that the West will not provide a strong reaction to Russia using nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
Post by: Robsoie on October 15, 2022, 12:12:49 pm
So i believe there's high hope that even if Putin's "special operation" project in Ukraine ends in defeat, he will not go for nuke (as long as none has the silly idea of invading their main land of course).
Post by: Strongpoint on October 15, 2022, 12:37:57 pm
The USSR ran away defeated from Afghanistan and never nuked it as a retaliation, same as the USA that ran away from Vietnam defeated and didn't nuked it either after that.
So i believe there's high hope that even if Putin's "special operation" project in Ukraine ends in defeat, he will not go for nuke (as long as none has the silly idea of invading their main land of course).
Nah, those are way different.
USSR did some vague "international duty" in a country few Soviet citizens cared about. Vietnam was an unpopular war and Americans WANTED to see it over.
Russia is waging a holy war to cleanse Russian brothers (who are sick and consider themselves a separate nation) from nazism, to save healthy Russians from those sickos, to reclaim Russian core territories, and to restore national pride. You can't simply abandon this and expect to stay in power.
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 15, 2022, 01:04:35 pm
The USSR ran away defeated from Afghanistan and never nuked it as a retaliation, same as the USA that ran away from Vietnam defeated and didn't nuked it either after that.
So i believe there's high hope that even if Putin's "special operation" project in Ukraine ends in defeat, he will not go for nuke (as long as none has the silly idea of invading their main land of course).
Totally different situations. Afghanistan was a straight up Soviet colonial war, while Vietnam was a really bizarre attempt to salvage a friendly power from a failed French colonial war. Neither were considered core territory of the respective powers. Not only has Putin declared that Ukraine is Russian soil by right and he is going to put the flag back where it belongs, there's a very good chance this war's going to progress into previously annexed Crimea that Russia's already claiming is their sacred soil. Putin's loss of face from losing this war is orders of magnitude greater than the Soviets or Americans suffered in the wars you mention.
More important, the leadership of both the Vietnam-era US and the Afghanistan-era Soviet Union were far more stable than Putin is. Johnson, Nixon and Ford had to worry about the effects of the war on their elections, but the worst case scenario the US faced was the opposition party getting an edge in votes. There was absolutley no risk of the government collapsing, and the people involved risked no greater fate than early retirement. The Soviets faced worse consequence, but nobody was going to pull Gorbachev down and hang him from the nearest lamppost either. Ultimately it was just one more step on the road to ruin for the Soviets, and nobody really expected it to be that much.
Putin's not quite in the position of a Romanov in late 1916, but he's far closer than the examples you pulled. And removing him from power isn't going to be a quiet "you lost the election, it is time to go" moment - it will be an outright coup, with Putin either "killed in the fighting", or later "shot while attempting to escape". Losing this war might not push him off the cliff, but it will push him a lot closer to the edge, and he knows it.
Of course, the fact that the very first shot the US fires if the balloon goes up is going to be a deep-penetrator right into his lap has to be on his mind as well.
Vietnam was an unpopular war and Americans WANTED to see it over.
That's fairly revisionist. Pop culture likes to pretend that there was massive opposition to Vietnam for the entire war, but in reality the conflict was extremely popular until near the very end. There's documented interviews and polls that suggest even hippies and beatniks were fairly divided about the war, and a hefty proportion of both supported it.
Post by: Egan_BW on October 15, 2022, 01:55:01 pm
Our hypothetical presidente deals with this situation by saying he never claimed that mexico is rightful USian clay, and furthermore we were only defeated by a cabal of sinister european woke globalist deep staters so please donate now to save america.
Does our hypothetical now majority trumpist american people dethrone him for this? I think not, their ideology is Trump. Blatant logical contradiction isn't enough to knock down that sort of leader.
Post by: Random_Dragon on October 15, 2022, 03:21:43 pm
I dunno, let's imagine that Trump wins next election with popular support somehow and makes himself presidente for life, invades mexico as rightful USian clay. And then loses.
Our hypothetical presidente deals with this situation by saying he never claimed that mexico is rightful USian clay, and furthermore we were only defeated by a cabal of sinister european woke globalist deep staters so please donate now to save america.
Does our hypothetical now majority trumpist american people dethrone him for this? I think not, their ideology is Trump. Blatant logical contradiction isn't enough to knock down that sort of leader.
Considering you're using someone who incited an attempted coup in response to losing as an example, you're not providing a very good example to try and prove the "Putin isn't unstable enough to do something that moronic" case here...
Post by: Strongpoint on October 15, 2022, 10:00:47 pm
I dunno, let's imagine that Trump wins next election with popular support somehow and makes himself presidente for life, invades mexico as rightful USian clay. And then loses.
Our hypothetical presidente deals with this situation by saying he never claimed that mexico is rightful USian clay, and furthermore we were only defeated by a cabal of sinister european woke globalist deep staters so please donate now to save america.
Does our hypothetical now majority trumpist american people dethrone him for this? I think not, their ideology is Trump. Blatant logical contradiction isn't enough to knock down that sort of leader.
If you could read Russian political forums (or Russian segments of any social network) you wouldn't be saying this.
Putin is already HATED by radicals for not being able to win this war in a quick and decisive way.
Post by: anewaname on October 16, 2022, 04:05:13 am
Post by: EuchreJack on October 16, 2022, 04:13:55 am
I really don't think anyone would start a nuclear war to stay in power. It would defeat the purpose, see?
Ah, but Putin isn't facing a nuclear war. The West has made clear that they're 100% NOT GOING to start a Nuclear War over Putin nuking Ukraine.
Thus, Putin has the green light to Nuke Ukraine.
The West has once again sold out.
Ironically, the United States actually saves the world, since we're basically a bipolar country that changes its mind every few years.
So Putin has to be worried that President Biden will try to mobilize Republican Warhawks from their slumber with promises of nuclear retaliation upon Putin.
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 16, 2022, 05:09:35 am
I really don't think anyone would start a nuclear war to stay in power. It would defeat the purpose, see?
Ah, but Putin isn't facing a nuclear war. The West has made clear that they're 100% NOT GOING to start a Nuclear War over Putin nuking Ukraine.
Thus, Putin has the green light to Nuke Ukraine.
No, the West has not. Both the US and Britain have kept any discussion of what their response would be extremely vague, and have repeatedly declined to rule out a nuclear response.
Post by: Starver on October 16, 2022, 06:45:58 am
Post by: EuchreJack on October 16, 2022, 10:58:13 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 17, 2022, 10:44:51 am
Honestly, I think Truss would GLADLY go to war with Russia, if only to get the attention off of her. So Russia better not do anything to give Truss an excuse. I suspect Putin understands that basic fact...Truss was already turbo anti-Russia jingo when she was foreign secretary in the Bojo Prime Ministerialship. Her anti-Putin conviction hasn't wavered a bit, and she still blames every ill in her cursed adminstration on Putin. The only reason she wouldn't commit to any Russian op is if her backbenchers threatened to unseat her because her government is pretty weak atm
Post by: Strongpoint on October 17, 2022, 11:47:48 am
Yeah, really, why... Russians are so unable to put themselves in someone's else shoes...
________
As for me, I felt no emotions apart from the sad news that the pilot ejected in time (BTW, decent human beings, when having a malfunction above a residential area, will try to divert their aircraft before saving their own skin... But we are talking about a Russian pilot here).
Empathy is a limited resource after all.
Post by: EuchreJack on October 17, 2022, 12:08:07 pm
Post by: Starver on October 17, 2022, 01:22:47 pm
But hard to tell how accurate those details are. They sound damning enough, but could even then be a coverup for even worse digressions from basic airworthiness and flight safety that caused (by current reports) three civilian deaths.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 17, 2022, 01:26:51 pm
Apparently it was a training flight
Correction: Russian ministry of defense said it was a training flight.
I find it very dubious. Russia is big enough to train its pilots somewhere NOT near an active combat zone
Post by: EuchreJack on October 17, 2022, 01:52:25 pm
Apparently it was a training flight
Correction: Russian ministry of defense said it was a training flight.
I find it very dubious. Russia is big enough to train its pilots somewhere NOT near an active combat zone
Ah, but Russia is big on "training by doing", so it was probably a combat mission.
Post by: Starver on October 17, 2022, 02:56:18 pm
Apparently [...]
But hard to tell how accurate those details are.
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 17, 2022, 03:08:34 pm
Apparently it was a training flight, which both pilots (presumably at least one being considered experienced enough to train) ejected after an engine caught fire on take-off. Which means nearly full fuel tanks (though no ordinance, presumably, if that wasn't part of the training) and it was either a bird-strike or a very rapid mechanical failure (both of which you'd expect ground teams to mitigate through various procedures).
But hard to tell how accurate those details are. They sound damning enough, but could even then be a coverup for even worse digressions from basic airworthiness and flight safety that caused (by current reports) three civilian deaths.
The video of the crash shows secondary detonations that appear to be munitions.
Post by: hector13 on October 17, 2022, 03:23:07 pm
Apparently it was a training flight, which both pilots (presumably at least one being considered experienced enough to train) ejected after an engine caught fire on take-off. Which means nearly full fuel tanks (though no ordinance, presumably, if that wasn't part of the training) and it was either a bird-strike or a very rapid mechanical failure (both of which you'd expect ground teams to mitigate through various procedures).
But hard to tell how accurate those details are. They sound damning enough, but could even then be a coverup for even worse digressions from basic airworthiness and flight safety that caused (by current reports) three civilian deaths.
The video of the crash shows secondary detonations that appear to be munitions.
That was clearly from the Ukrainian terrorists that used the apartment block as a base of operations.
Post by: King Zultan on October 18, 2022, 05:16:02 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 18, 2022, 10:03:34 am
..."They (Russians) wanted to buy hundreds of our missiles, even mid-range ones, but we told them that we can ship soon a few hundred of their demanded Zolfaghar and Fateh 110 short-range, surface to surface missiles," said one of the security officials.
300 and 700 km range... neat...
______________________________
This war will last for many, many years... Russia won't run out of money (oil will flow) to buy such stuff and continue making their own.
Russia will never have any meaningful dissent, it won't run out of cannon fodder anytime soon and even if Ukraine will be able to push them back on land, they will keep lobbing stuff across our border like a huge HAMAS on steroids.
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 18, 2022, 10:13:04 am
What's being somewhat overlooked here is what it means that Russia is even trying to procure from this source - they'd only be doing it if the recent statement from the Ukrainian Ministry Of Defense is correct and they're nearly out of missiles.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 18, 2022, 10:27:44 am
This crap will go on for years. Russian Economy is doing absolutely fine (they lost what? -3% GDP?. Ha! What a hit!), the population is docile, ideology is as pro-war as possible.
Post by: anewaname on October 18, 2022, 12:13:43 pm
That "Russian economy" only represents the cash value of international buying and selling, not the quality level of the goods traded. Russia is receiving less of the higher-tech components which they cannot produce internally. There have been Western military-grade-technology sanctions on Russia since Crimea was invaded and Russia has used shell companies to avoid the sanctions for a while (google "Extreme Networks russia sanctions" as an example).
The majority of the Russian population is not involved in that international-trade economy and will be paid with just enough "consumer goods" to survive (meaning, they are economic slaves and unable to break themselves or their families out of the situation they are in, and will be used as fodder for the economic and military engine by the "ruling class"). That includes the maybe-3-million Ukrainian refugees who were re-directed into Russia.
About that pro-war sentiment in Russia... Most of it exists because people are afraid to be anything besides a patriot. If you were a Russian with kids, and your loved brother/sister lived in Ukraine, you would still say "Ukrainians are Nazi's" to protect your kids.
Post by: Starver on October 18, 2022, 02:08:24 pm
you would still say "Ukrainians are Nazi's"Grammar Communist! You're putting apostrophes to work in totally inapproriate places!
Post by: MaxTheFox on October 19, 2022, 12:38:33 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 19, 2022, 06:13:21 am
Post by: Great Order on October 19, 2022, 06:49:51 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 19, 2022, 07:42:16 am
The problem with revolutions is they rarely make things better because the ruthless bastards who run the revolution tend to be the same ruthless bastards who won't step down when it's over.The green revolution was good. We uh... Grew turnips better
Post by: Strongpoint on October 19, 2022, 08:45:20 am
Oh... Excited sarcastic WONDERFULl!
Post by: Great Order on October 19, 2022, 08:58:47 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 19, 2022, 08:59:11 am
House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy said Republicans are prepared to pull back on US aid to Ukraine next year if they gain control of the House, reflecting a growing sentiment in the party for the country to be less involved overseas.Still gonna bomb Yemen though
Oh... Excited sarcastic WONDERFULl!
Post by: MaxTheFox on October 19, 2022, 11:01:39 am
The problem with revolutions is they rarely make things better because the ruthless bastards who run the revolution tend to be the same ruthless bastards who won't step down when it's over.And I accept this.
House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy said Republicans are prepared to pull back on US aid to Ukraine next year if they gain control of the House, reflecting a growing sentiment in the party for the country to be less involved overseas.Classic conservatoids.
Oh... Excited sarcastic WONDERFULl!
Post by: Magmacube_tr on October 19, 2022, 12:12:12 pm
Classic conservatoids.
I prefer the term "cuckservatives", but yours is nice too.
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 19, 2022, 12:25:26 pm
Post by: anewaname on October 19, 2022, 04:10:36 pm
"Why spend overseas when we need to spend domestically?" and "We have a domestic crisis, and you are at fault for our not having the funding!"
Post by: heydude6 on October 19, 2022, 04:32:58 pm
If you spin this right, you can create pretty damning proof that the today's GOP truly does stand for nothing but the furthering of its own power.
Post by: Great Order on October 19, 2022, 05:31:04 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 19, 2022, 05:35:09 pm
Post by: Lidku on October 19, 2022, 07:21:25 pm
We shall have peace in Europe!Spoiler (click to show/hide)
That would be really awkward.
Post by: bloop_bleep on October 19, 2022, 09:35:42 pm
Post by: scriver on October 20, 2022, 05:15:26 am
Post by: Strongpoint on October 20, 2022, 02:17:17 pm
It seems illogical beyond belief, attacking through a swampy and forest terrain during autumn rains is borderline idiotic. Belarus Army has zero combat experience and low morale. But this war has seen many idiotic moves... And Putin ordering his puppet to aid in a new offensive aimed at taking Kyiv is in his character. Something like German Ardennes offensive in 1944
__________________
Also, various sources say that Russia mined Nova Kakhovka Dam and plan to blow up it soon to cover their retreat from Kherson, flooding a huge portion of the city. They are evacuating from Kherson (meaning robbing and looting as well as saving collaborators and Russian civilian specialists who already arrived there), using those civilians as nice meat shields to let their troops to cross the river
Post by: Il Palazzo on October 20, 2022, 02:45:40 pm
Post by: Great Order on October 20, 2022, 03:21:57 pm
Hopefully they send off the army and the Belarusian citizenry seizes the opportunity to have a nice involuntary transfer of power.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 20, 2022, 04:15:46 pm
It's not idiotic. They don't even have to make any real effort to be useful. Just enough to draw some forces to the border. Every Ukrainian brigade tied down is a brigade not attacking.
It would be true if... that didn't mean that Belarus will have to use its military resources not to send them to Russia but on this hopeless front. Creating some kind of expeditionary force of volunteers and sending those to reinforce Russia on some other front would be far more logical.
And hadn't Ukraine blown up basically every bridge to Belarus anyway?
Hopefully they send off the army and the Belarusian citizenry seizes the opportunity to have a nice involuntary transfer of power.
Yeah, it is not like February. There are minefields, trenches, etc.
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 20, 2022, 05:08:03 pm
This would force Ukraine to send hundreds of thousands of troops to defend the Belarusian border just in case the Belarusians sense weakness and attack. But there is no actual obligation for Belarus to attack, and so in this way Belarus would be able to greatly aid Russia without risking any Belarusian resources or exposing potential weaknesses in the Belarusian army
Post by: Stench Guzman on October 20, 2022, 05:34:17 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on October 20, 2022, 05:36:06 pm
Post by: Great Order on October 20, 2022, 06:01:07 pm
Post by: Madman198237 on October 20, 2022, 11:08:41 pm
So somebody goes "BUT CHERNOBYL", or "Three Mile Island was almost a terrible disaster!", or "but look at Fukushima and its gazillion melted reactors" and then the average Joe goes "well that's way too dangerous for me, back to breathing in the wonderful coal smoke in the air" and thinks no further on the issue.
Post by: heydude6 on October 21, 2022, 02:17:52 am
Why are the German greens so ardently anti nuclear and pro coal?
I've heard a few theories stating that anti-nuclear environmentalists are secretly funded by oil companies. Though they might also be funded by Russia. A lot of Anti-vax Covid propaganda actually came from Russia, so I wouldn't be surprised if they distributed anti-nuclear pamphlets back in the day. Russia has a history of being involved in wacky conspiracy theories.
Post by: Ganondworf on October 21, 2022, 07:48:52 am
Why are the German greens so ardently anti nuclear and pro coal?
I've heard a few theories stating that anti-nuclear environmentalists are secretly funded by oil companies. Though they might also be funded by Russia. A lot of Anti-vax Covid propaganda actually came from Russia, so I wouldn't be surprised if they distributed anti-nuclear pamphlets back in the day. Russia has a history of being involved in wacky conspiracy theories.
The best explanation would probably be this:
Same reason why most nations aren't deriving more, if not most, of their nations' base grid loads from nuclear---statistics don't sway the average (and of thoroughly average intelligence) voter, but images of tragedy or cases of uninformed fear-mongering sure do.
So somebody goes "BUT CHERNOBYL", or "Three Mile Island was almost a terrible disaster!", or "but look at Fukushima and its gazillion melted reactors" and then the average Joe goes "well that's way too dangerous for me, back to breathing in the wonderful coal smoke in the air" and thinks no further on the issue.
[Edit: removed useless rant]
So when Fukushima happened, all the people went batshit crazy and demanded a stop to nuclear power. The problem was, when Merkel did that, that there was no avoiding coal power, because the Merkel administration had actively hampered the expansion of regenerative energy production, for a lot of reasons.
However, I would not say that Germans are pro coal, only that nuclear power is regarded even worse.
Post by: Ganondworf on October 21, 2022, 07:57:48 am
Also, various sources say that Russia mined Nova Kakhovka Dam and plan to blow up it soon to cover their retreat from Kherson, flooding a huge portion of the city. They are evacuating from Kherson (meaning robbing and looting as well as saving collaborators and Russian civilian specialists who already arrived there), using those civilians as nice meat shields to let their troops to cross the river
Of course, Russia is accusing Ukraine of planning to attack the dam. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/is-kakhovka-dam-ukraine-about-be-blown-2022-10-21/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/is-kakhovka-dam-ukraine-about-be-blown-2022-10-21/)
:(
Post by: Strongpoint on October 21, 2022, 08:29:35 am
Also, various sources say that Russia mined Nova Kakhovka Dam and plan to blow up it soon to cover their retreat from Kherson, flooding a huge portion of the city. They are evacuating from Kherson (meaning robbing and looting as well as saving collaborators and Russian civilian specialists who already arrived there), using those civilians as nice meat shields to let their troops to cross the river
Of course, Russia is accusing Ukraine of planning to attack the dam. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/is-kakhovka-dam-ukraine-about-be-blown-2022-10-21/ (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/is-kakhovka-dam-ukraine-about-be-blown-2022-10-21/)
:(
I was expecting this back in February, as soon as Russia captured Nova Kahovka. Knowing that if they'll retreat they'll blow it up and blame Ukrainians
Post by: EuchreJack on October 21, 2022, 08:35:04 pm
House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy said Republicans are prepared to pull back on US aid to Ukraine next year if they gain control of the House, reflecting a growing sentiment in the party for the country to be less involved overseas.
Oh... Excited sarcastic WONDERFULl!
I tend to believe this is the intent. There are three basic problems with Today's Republicans:
1) They got money from Russia
2) They got money from Billionaires that don't want US dollars spent in this way. Presumably, the Democrats already greased their supporters with Supplies to Ukraine, and thus the Republicans are out.
3) The Democrats supported and gained political credibility from this war.
But hey, look how long it took the US to leave Afghanistan. There will be SOME money for a long, long time.
McCarthy won't have the ability to do that even if the GOP does take the House. Neoisolationism is far from a universal position among the GOP, and the very worst case scenarios project their margin as quite small. The Speaker doesn't have, and never has, nearly the amount of control over the House that the Majority Leader has over the Senate.This brings up an interesting point. President Biden can provide at least some funding via Executive Order and Budgetary Powers (https://www.senate.gov/reference/reference_index_subjects/Budget_vrd.htm).
Post by: EuchreJack on October 21, 2022, 08:35:38 pm
Why are the German greens so ardently anti nuclear and pro coal?
Because they get money from people owning coal mines, presumably. German has a TON of coal.
Post by: Mailo on October 22, 2022, 03:02:13 am
Somewhat off-topic, but ...Why are the German greens so ardently anti nuclear and pro coal?
Because they get money from people owning coal mines, presumably. German has a TON of coal.
Not really ... most black coal mines are closed, and not necessarily for the environmental reasons you think. In the state I come from, they were closed because the resulting earth quakes from collapsing tunnels almost killed a group of school children (a large part of a church tower fell down and missed them by not much) and caused much property damage. Also, digging for blackcoal is expensive and only possible with massive government subsidies ... to create a job paying a miner 60k, the government had to spend something like 150k in subsidies ... total insanity.
Brown coal surface digging still happens, but has been reduced by more than a factor of three since 1990, and will continue to decrease.
Most anti-nuclear arguments I know are
- There currently exists no solution to the problem of storing the waste beyond "bury it, forget about it and pray it does not leak and kill people too quickly, at least not before I am no longer responsible"
- While the chance for a catastrophic accident is very low, having one would leave significant densely inhabited parts of Germany uninhabitable
- The CO2 emission of nuclear power usually is severely underestimated, by an order of magnitude, by leaving out the costs for mining the ore, refining it, dismantling the power plant at the end of the cycle (with radioactive concrete), and the longterm storage of the spent fuel. Including all this using ore grades required to run nuclear for 90+ years, the CO2 costs are higher than for natural gas, which would make it only 15% or so cheaper than coal.
- The costs in $ per kWh for nuclear is not really competitive with other sources of energy, and will get worse in the future due to using up the higher grade ore first, requiring more refining. There are serious studies calling nuclear power "not economically viable"
- Russia is a significant source for nuclear fuel, so exchanging gas with nuclear will still not change the supplier
I don't know of any German who actually is "pro coal". Most are "pro regenerative sources". Some smaller parties are actually pro nuclear, funnily enough the same ones that are also pro russia and deny Covid.
"Funny" side note: A coal plant creates more radioactive pollution (from radioactive traces in the coal) than a nuclear power plant in normal operation.
Post by: Lord Shonus on October 22, 2022, 05:34:08 am
- The CO2 emission of nuclear power usually is severely underestimated, by an order of magnitude, by leaving out the costs for mining the ore, refining it, dismantling the power plant at the end of the cycle (with radioactive concrete), and the longterm storage of the spent fuel. Including all this using ore grades required to run nuclear for 90+ years, the CO2 costs are higher than for natural gas, which would make it only 15% or so cheaper than coal.
Total CO2 cost accounting is really easy to rig however you want it to, because the "hidden" costs vary massively. Most of the high-end estimates assume that everything involved in the chain is using the dirtiest inputs possible - unfiltered diesel equipment to mine the ore, coal power plants to refine it, old filthy ships and rail to transport it, etc. The problem with such analysis is that a cleaner electric supply can tank all those way, way down, both with direct power and by freeing up cleaner fuel for later in the chain. The same costs also tend to conviently glossed over or given very favorable assumptions for <preferred energy source>.
The worst figure I could find (in a German publication citing an extremely anti-nuclear Dutch group) for the total-cost CO2 emissions of a nuclear plant is 180 grams of CO2/kWh. The average CO2 cost of natural gas in that same study was 442. That's more than 50% cheaper, not higher, and roughly an fifth of what coal does without factoring in anything beyond the smokestack (US government figures put that at 1011 grams). Note that most of these figures were generated before research suggesting that natural gas plants are far more polluting than previously thought - it was believed that natural seepage of methane contributed a far greater share of that pollutant than is now known to be the case. That means NG is even worse compared to nuclear than previously believed.
Meanwhile, the waste problem is significantly skewed by a rather foolish decision by Carter to hobble US plants. US reactors only use a small portion of the fuel's total capability as an anti-proliferation mechanism. This creates much more waste than is ideal. European and Chinese designs tend to consume their fuel to a much greater degree, and thus produce much less waste. Because the waste is more highly radioactie, it also decays into harmlessness much faster than the generational fear of the relatively low-level US waste. And, of course, every nuclear reactor ever built has produced far less waste, and less toxic waste, in their lifetime than coal plants will produce this year.
The sole antinuclear argument that makes real sense is the lead time. And "it will take ten, twenty years before nuclear plants started today come online, so it is a waste of time" rings pretty damn hollow from the groups that were blocking plants on the same grounds ten or twenty years ago.
EDIT because I posted too soon
Quote
- Russia is a significant source for nuclear fuel, so exchanging gas with nuclear will still not change the supplier
This is an economic thing, not a resource allocation one. North America has massive deposits of uranium and thorium (which can be readily transmuted to uranium). It is minimally mined because Russian fuel is cheaper, but that can easily change.
Post by: EuchreJack on October 22, 2022, 04:12:38 pm
Basically, Canada can completely replace Russia.
Post by: Ganondworf on October 22, 2022, 04:55:50 pm
I found an article on this topic. (https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/us-and-eu-imports-of-russian-uranium-and-enrichment-services-could-stop/)
Basically, Canada can completely replace Russia.
Thank you, very interesting! I especially liked the closing remarks:
Quote
If the net effect of shifting away from Russian uranium and enrichment were to cause as much as a 50 percent increase in the cost of uranium and SWUs to US utilities, it would increase the retail cost of nuclear power by only 2 percent—much less than June’s year-over-year general inflation rates of about 9 percent in both the United States and the European Union.
The cost of ending dependence on Russia’s nuclear services pales in comparison to the costs Putin’s war has already inflicted on the US and EU economies.
Post by: Strongpoint on October 23, 2022, 07:37:01 am
They are becoming more and more open that their goal is a plain and simple genocide
Also, remember, that those people "adopted" many many thousands of Ukrainian children...
Post by: Ganondworf on October 23, 2022, 12:09:07 pm
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1584054018145685504
They are becoming more and more open that their goal is a plain and simple genocide
Also, remember, that those people "adopted" many many thousands of Ukrainian children...
That is so disgusting. I will never understand why some people lack basic empathy and decency. Can't they undertand how horrible it is what they are wishing on other human beings?
Post by: hector13 on October 23, 2022, 12:30:48 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on October 23, 2022, 11:44:39 pm
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1584054018145685504
They are becoming more and more open that their goal is a plain and simple genocide
Also, remember, that those people "adopted" many many thousands of Ukrainian children...
That is so disgusting. I will never understand why some people lack basic empathy and decency. Can't they undertand how horrible it is what they are wishing on other human beings?
He unlocked a rare achievement: being fired from Russian TV for the hate speech
(In fact, he was fired for spilling it away not for his opinion, and will reemerge somewhere else but...)
Post by: martinuzz on November 01, 2022, 01:16:29 pm
Post by: heydude6 on November 08, 2022, 12:51:15 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on November 08, 2022, 01:05:10 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on November 08, 2022, 01:43:09 pm
Anyone worried that the threat of winter may scare Ukraine into a premature surrender? I heard some disturbing rumors about Zelenski considering a deal with Putin and I assume it could only be due to things such as the threat of starvation and lack of heating due to destroyed infrastructure.
Impossible. Yes, we know that the winter will be quite hard (I already have rolling blackouts for 8 hours per day, in some areas it is 16) but we are ready and no one is going to surrender because of that.
I expect a major new wave of strikes using Iranian ballistic missiles close to the New Year and a new wave of refugees going west is quite possible. But it won't cause any surrender.
And no, there is no threat of starvation. You need to collapse logistics for that. Something Russia is unable to do.
Post by: EuchreJack on November 08, 2022, 07:47:53 pm
Post by: lemon10 on November 08, 2022, 11:14:14 pm
Anyone worried that the threat of winter may scare Ukraine into a premature surrender? I heard some disturbing rumors about Zelenski considering a deal with Putin and I assume it could only be due to things such as the threat of starvation and lack of heating due to destroyed infrastructure.One of the big global problems with the war is that Ukraine is one of the major food exporters and they simply have a ton of food ready to sell. They aren't going to run out of food.
Heating will be a bigger issue, but that isn't nearly enough to break them.
Post by: Strongpoint on November 08, 2022, 11:21:31 pm
Anyone worried that the threat of winter may scare Ukraine into a premature surrender? I heard some disturbing rumors about Zelenski considering a deal with Putin and I assume it could only be due to things such as the threat of starvation and lack of heating due to destroyed infrastructure.One of the big global problems with the war is that Ukraine is one of the major food exporters and they simply have a ton of food ready to sell. They aren't going to run out of food.
Heating will be a bigger issue, but that isn't nearly enough to break them.
And even if Russia somehow destroy enough food storages, it can be imported.
All our fuel storages were destroyed during the first weeks but, after some time for rerouting logistics, gas stations work as normal. No rationing, no shortages, no queues.
Post by: King Zultan on November 09, 2022, 04:59:20 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on November 09, 2022, 05:25:32 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on November 09, 2022, 08:25:57 am
Heavy fighting near Bakhmut and Donetsk, where Russians have been making repeated pushes for some limited gains.
To the north, the stretch of land running N-S between the Oskil river and the defensive lines Russians erected near Svatove changes hands all the time.
Post by: Lord Shonus on November 09, 2022, 10:27:37 am
Post by: Strongpoint on November 09, 2022, 11:36:23 am
Now starting to see reports from usually credible sources that Russia has abandoned Kherson.
Well, their minister of defense, on TV, ordered them to "make a maneuver" and move troops to the right bank of Dnipro.
Looks like Russian troops will have a fun time crossing the river under heavy artillery fire.
It is also highly likely that they mined and will blow everything of value in Kherson
Post by: EuchreJack on November 09, 2022, 12:56:40 pm
Post by: Starver on November 09, 2022, 03:06:45 pm
I'm imagining the Dwarf Fortress gambit of building the entire fortress on a single pillar hooked to a lever, then pulling the lever...Some would say that if it doesn't involve magma, then it isn't suitably Dorfy.
(There's a large cluster of mud volcanos in the Sorokin Trough, just off the southern coast of Crimea, but I don't know if anyone can weaponise those. Except that their role in relation to hydrate/methane seeps might be playing a major part in Russia's desire for control of that maritime territory.)
Post by: Strongpoint on November 10, 2022, 04:54:47 pm
Post by: Magmacube_tr on November 11, 2022, 12:02:25 am
Some would say that if it doesn't involve magma, then it isn't suitably Dorfy.
Hey just because I am a young male doesn't mean you can send me to my death!
And I bet you are old, too.
Post by: King Zultan on November 11, 2022, 03:42:53 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on November 11, 2022, 10:58:27 am
Typical Pole, exhibit A:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuZ24VBrbO4
Post by: Strongpoint on November 11, 2022, 11:52:15 am
And relatively intact.
Yes, retreating Russians blew up bridges, a heating facility, tv tower, energy infrastructure, some other stuff... And it was thoroughly looted, from city monuments... to content of museums... to animals from the city zoo to... a children train from a local amusement park...
Many were deported... some local collaborators and pro-Russians ran away voluntarily but many were forcefully deported including their children and orphans....
Everyone expects artillery strikes on the city... Everyone knows what we will find in local torture chambers and on outskirts of the city...
But Kherson is back home.
Post by: Starver on November 11, 2022, 12:00:47 pm
Gotta love Russian talk shows. Apparently the imperialist Poland wants to annex Ukraine and march on Moscow now. Or rather, it has always wanted to, but now is our chance. We hate them Ruskies; it's in our blood, you see.Fair's fair, though. I reckon Poland should occupy half of Russia. And of Germany, to make it equitable.
Typical Pole, exhibit A:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PuZ24VBrbO4
(Make it a joint enterprise with Lithuania. Then give half of Poland to Luxembourg, just to balance out that bit of history, too.)
Re: Kherson - congrats, but also take care... (as a nation, but naturally also everyone involved personally). If there aren't any nasty surprises prepared/planned then I might actually start feeling sorry for the Russian forces who ran away.
Post by: Egan_BW on November 11, 2022, 06:54:02 pm
Hey just because I am a young male doesn't mean you can send me to my death!Most of human history indicates this statement to be dead wrong.
Post by: heydude6 on November 11, 2022, 06:56:01 pm
You're missing the context that due to extremely blurry vision, Magmacube is not eligible to be in the Russian military. He'd be a liability on the battlefield.Hey just because I am a young male doesn't mean you can send me to my death!Most of human history indicates this statement to be dead wrong.
Post by: Egan_BW on November 11, 2022, 07:08:07 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on November 11, 2022, 07:08:29 pm
Post by: nenjin on November 11, 2022, 07:21:44 pm
Post by: Starver on November 11, 2022, 07:43:00 pm
If they were tanks awaiting (relatively) trivial repair, I could see them being taken completely out of viable recommissioning under Ukrainean hands. If they were completely Ok, beforehand, and they still had somewhere to take them then it seems stupid. Or a form of militaristic passive resistance by interpretting orders in a not-exactly-mutinous manner.
How about if they were wary of having a bridge still to cross, with relatively trundling vehickles, because of either side's ideas regarding imminent demolition? Cram tank-crews into the next available stolen minibus, get the hell outa there (or go to ground) with the last actsof a few engineers/crewmembers to be putting the stuff permanently out of commission?
...possibilites, and almost all stink of desparation of one kind or another.
Post by: Il Palazzo on November 11, 2022, 07:43:34 pm
Such as....? My mind immediately jumps to "they're going to do something terrible to that area and there's no time to move the hardware out." Your retreat has to be pretty drastic to scrap your materiel like that.They've been losing equipment to advancing Ukrainians since Kyiv. You don't always get to take with you everything you'd like to as the enemy won't be kindly waiting for you to finish packing. Especially here, where their logistics were already strained.
That they've been blowing up the equipment simply shows that this time they at least remembered to do that much, instead of leaving the usual 'almost-new' gifts to the other side.
Do you see it? It means they're slightly better at losing the war this time around.
Post by: Lord Shonus on November 11, 2022, 07:48:18 pm
Such as....? My mind immediately jumps to "they're going to do something terrible to that area and there's no time to move the hardware out." Your retreat has to be pretty drastic to scrap your materiel like that.
It probably means they're about to be driven into the
Post by: hector13 on November 11, 2022, 07:52:25 pm
I'm minded of the US chucking its perfectly good evacuation helicopters off the carrier decks as they pulled out of Vietnam (for various reason - not entirely sure they didn't have more missions in them, but they certainly weren't at that time considered as more than liabilitiesanda waste of deck-space). Then there was Kabul, again the US, not so long ago.
If they were tanks awaiting (relatively) trivial repair, I could see them being taken completely out of viable recommissioning under Ukrainean hands. If they were completely Ok, beforehand, and they still had somewhere to take them then it seems stupid. Or a form of militaristic passive resistance by interpretting orders in a not-exactly-mutinous manner.
How about if they were wary of having a bridge still to cross, with relatively trundling vehickles, because of either side's ideas regarding imminent demolition? Cram tank-crews into the next available stolen minibus, get the hell outa there (or go to ground) with the last actsof a few engineers/crewmembers to be putting the stuff permanently out of commission?
...possibilites, and almost all stink of desparation of one kind or another.
Given the reports from earlier in the war of having poor supplies and such, I’d hazard a guess at it being related to that. Not enough fuel or spare parts or something, and not wanting thte equipment to fall into enemy hands.
It could be just as you suggest though, that the Russians have had enough of those poor supplies and are acting out as a consequence. If you’ve spent the better part of a year holding a city not getting enough supplies to do that, and then get told to retreat, I can’t imagine you’d be happy.
Post by: Loud Whispers on November 14, 2022, 11:16:51 am
Sometimes young men are not sent to their deaths; the death is sent to themHey just because I am a young male doesn't mean you can send me to my death!Most of human history indicates this statement to be dead wrong.
Post by: brewer bob on November 14, 2022, 11:42:48 am
Quote from: Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sledgehammer-execution-russian-mercenary-who-defected-ukraine-shown-video-2022-11-13/)
Video shows sledgehammer execution of Russian mercenary
Russia's Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, said on Sunday that a former mercenary who was filmed being executed by a sledgehammer blow to the head after changing sides in the Ukraine war was a traitor.
Prigozhin, a Russian businessman who founded the Wagner private military group, was responding to an unverified video distributed on Telegram that showed a man identified as a former Wagner mercenary being executed after admitting that he had changed sides in September to "fight against the Russians".
In the footage, the man, who gave his name as Yevgenny Nuzhin, 55, was shown with his head taped to a brick wall. He said he was abducted in Kyiv on Oct. 11 and came around in a cellar.
"I got hit over the head and lost consciousness and came around in this cellar," he said. "They told me I was to be tried."
As he said those words, an unidentified man loitering in combat clothing behind Nuzhin, smashed a sledgehammer into the side of his head and neck.
Nuzhin collapsed onto the floor and the unidentified man delivered another blow to his head.
[...]
Asked to comment on the execution video, Prigozhin said in remarks released by his spokeswoman that the video should be called "A dog receives a dog's death".
"Nuzhin betrayed his people, betrayed his comrades, betrayed consciously," said Prigozhin, who has been sanctioned by the United States and European Union for his role in Wagner. "Nuzhin was a traitor."
Post by: Strongpoint on November 14, 2022, 01:12:46 pm
Wagner Group going full ISIS/ISIL:Quote from: Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sledgehammer-execution-russian-mercenary-who-defected-ukraine-shown-video-2022-11-13/)Video shows sledgehammer execution of Russian mercenary
Russia's Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin, said on Sunday that a former mercenary who was filmed being executed by a sledgehammer blow to the head after changing sides in the Ukraine war was a traitor.
Prigozhin, a Russian businessman who founded the Wagner private military group, was responding to an unverified video distributed on Telegram that showed a man identified as a former Wagner mercenary being executed after admitting that he had changed sides in September to "fight against the Russians".
In the footage, the man, who gave his name as Yevgenny Nuzhin, 55, was shown with his head taped to a brick wall. He said he was abducted in Kyiv on Oct. 11 and came around in a cellar.
"I got hit over the head and lost consciousness and came around in this cellar," he said. "They told me I was to be tried."
As he said those words, an unidentified man loitering in combat clothing behind Nuzhin, smashed a sledgehammer into the side of his head and neck.
Nuzhin collapsed onto the floor and the unidentified man delivered another blow to his head.
[...]
Asked to comment on the execution video, Prigozhin said in remarks released by his spokeswoman that the video should be called "A dog receives a dog's death".
"Nuzhin betrayed his people, betrayed his comrades, betrayed consciously," said Prigozhin, who has been sanctioned by the United States and European Union for his role in Wagner. "Nuzhin was a traitor."
they practice such methods since (at least) 2017 - https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/family-seek-justice-in-russia-fo-syrian-army-deserter-was-savagely-killed-by-putins-wagner/
Post by: anewaname on November 15, 2022, 03:20:49 am
Post by: King Zultan on November 15, 2022, 04:13:44 am
Post by: martinuzz on November 15, 2022, 09:52:00 am
He was visiting Kyiv for a meeting with Ukraine's National Security Council.
I wonder what would happen if a government leader of a NATO country were to be killed in Kyiv by Russian attacks.
For example, Biden gets killed when visiting Kyiv.
Technically that's not article 5, since the attack is not on NATO soil, but I wonder if that would stop the US from declaring war if their president or Chief of Staff was killed.
EDIT: or perhaps it would even be article 5. The ground under the feet of a diplomatic mission, for the duration and purpose of the mission is temporarily considered to be falling under the national sovereignty of the mission's flag.
Post by: Great Order on November 15, 2022, 10:02:24 am
Post by: Strongpoint on November 15, 2022, 10:59:36 am
Considering that I enjoyed only 8-12 hours of electricity per day before this strike, I may not post often :)
Post by: Random_Dragon on November 15, 2022, 01:43:51 pm
Post by: Egan_BW on November 15, 2022, 02:04:37 pm
Post by: Bralbaard on November 15, 2022, 02:21:53 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on November 15, 2022, 03:00:31 pm
See before with the "absolute worst-case scenario that this invasion could end in is potentially much worse than just nuclear war" rants I've done, with the added reminder that nuclear war still sucks even if it's not the "a new era of militarism, nuclear proliferation, and imperialism makes WWIII inevitable anyway, and when it finally arrives we'll welcome an end to Hell of Earth with open arms" ending.
Post by: martinuzz on November 15, 2022, 03:23:26 pm
According to our government, our minister is curently safe in the bomb shelter he is hiding in.
So he ain't completely out of the woods yet.
EDIT:
Meanwhile, two people were killed in Poland, when a Russian missile struck the village of Przewodów, 70km north of Lviv.
The Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki has called a meeting with the government's defense council.
Our Dutch minister has left the bomb shelter in Kyiv, after being stuck there for 3 hours
Post by: TamerVirus on November 15, 2022, 03:40:59 pm
Post by: Starver on November 15, 2022, 04:04:01 pm
Remember, the fun part is there is no good answer to this. Either we risk WWIII teaching Putin that actions sometimes do have consequences, or he learns that "accidentally blowing up NATO territory" is perfectly okay to do.
I was thinking perhaps, with prior coordinated agreement with Ukraine (to not interfere badly with their own on-the-ground actions) have a strike against a military base/complex in Crimea that was not even one of those 'leased' to Russia before they usurped the whole territory (thus still not actually Russian territory by commonly accepted International rules).
Or something similar in the more recently invaded territories, as second-best but possibly tipped over into far more steady ground, legally, for some of the worldwide community.
I'd like to see a coordinated spread pattern of the even more accurate NATO-only weaponry mark out a great big smiley face (think Lethal Weapon firing range), but I may be fantasising a bit on the practicities of that exact part of the plan. At least.
Post by: Lord Shonus on November 15, 2022, 04:15:24 pm
Remember, the fun part is there is no good answer to this. Either we risk WWIII teaching Putin that actions sometimes do have consequences, or he learns that "accidentally blowing up NATO territory" is perfectly okay to do.
Even if this is a Russian missile (there's some indication that it may have been a Ukrainian SAM (which will likely be ignored, defensive missiles causing damage is an entirely different beast from offensive ones), or a Russian missile that got shot down by Ukraine (which reduces the pressure because Russia can't control where it will go after that)), escalating to direct NATO intervention is not required. The strongest response would be a tit-for-tat escalation in the sort of munitions provided, along with strengthening Polish air defenses along the border.
Post by: da_nang on November 15, 2022, 05:25:11 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on November 15, 2022, 06:10:41 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on November 15, 2022, 06:41:52 pm
...stupid Russians.
Post by: Il Palazzo on November 15, 2022, 06:59:36 pm
Even if this is a Russian missileYeah. Polish government has been asking for restraint in reporting until more is known. The one thing that is certain is that there was an explosion at an agricultural facility, and two people have died. For all we know at this moment, it could even have been unrelated to the Russian barrage.
And in any case, at worst (for Russia), this would be in the category of the downing of the MH17 flight - not article 5.
Post by: Lord Shonus on November 15, 2022, 07:32:18 pm
Even if this is a Russian missileYeah. Polish government has been asking for restraint in reporting until more is known. The one thing that is certain is that there was an explosion at an agricultural facility, and two people have died. For all we know at this moment, it could even have been unrelated to the Russian barrage.
And in any case, at worst (for Russia), this would be in the category of the downing of the MH17 flight - not article 5.
We know for sure that there was a missile strike - wreckage has been photographed - and there's only two countries throwing missiles around. There's a good chance that the response will be much stronger than MH17 because everybody's sick of Russia's shit, but it will not be war.
Post by: Il Palazzo on November 15, 2022, 07:45:59 pm
wreckage has been photographedGive us a link.
Post by: Starver on November 15, 2022, 08:26:14 pm
wreckage has been photographedGive us a link.
I'm sure I saw a photo of the (accused) Russian missile wreckage on this page (https://metro.co.uk/2022/11/15/russian-missiles-land-in-nato-member-country-poland-killing-two-17764959/), but it isn't there now (only of the impact crater, which seems corroborative to it being a missile hit). Still trying to get used to the site (doesn't have a "deny all" on its Cookies page!) after uninstalling their 'improved' App for now being godawfully unusable, so maybe it was somewhere else (front page image when I first looked, since replaced), but only a little hunting might find it, if you can bear the over-interactive nature of the typical commercial website.
(Had a glance at the BBC, news site, but the agency photo is not obviously copied onto there, yet. Still, at least not the same kind of resource-hog/advertising-pusher..)
Post by: hector13 on November 15, 2022, 08:57:52 pm
You may have to go to page 2 ‘cause it was right at the bottom of page 1 when I just checked.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
That’s the image, basically in a section when three experts think it’s an s-300 missile, so it could have come from either side (it’s a surface-to-air missile that Ukraine uses to shoot down cruise missiles, while Russia apparently uses it for ground strikes) until they figure out more.
Post by: Lord Shonus on November 15, 2022, 09:00:24 pm
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1592629251161075712
They're suggesting that the wreckage is probably a SAM from a S-300 missile system, but Russia has been using those in the secondary land attack role.
Post by: BurnedToast on November 15, 2022, 10:18:29 pm
UA Weapons Tracker (a very reliable source) has the photos.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1592629251161075712
They're suggesting that the wreckage is probably a SAM from a S-300 missile system, but Russia has been using those in the secondary land attack role.
Note that the S-300 has a max range of ~150km (~93 miles). So *if* it was an S-300 (which is not confirmed) we know it was absolutely not fired from russia or the eastern half of ukraine that russia is occupying. It had to have been fired from western ukraine (west of kyiv) or western belarus.
Meanwhile, the ukrainian city of lviv was hit with russian missiles today and an S-300 fired from that area is well within range to have hit poland. So if it was an S-300, and once again I want to be clear that's absolutely unconfirmed, then it seems quite likely to me it was a ukrainian missile deployed against incoming russian missiles that missed and ended up landing in poland.
Post by: bloop_bleep on November 15, 2022, 11:33:46 pm
Kyiv/Coordinates 50.4501° N, 30.5234°E
Lviv/Coordinates 49.842957 ° N, 24.031111° E
Poland target 50.4501° N 24.031111° E
So... Yeah.
Post by: MaxTheFox on November 16, 2022, 12:20:56 am
So correct me if I'm wrong, but I've seen that:Bruh.
Kyiv/Coordinates 50.4501° N, 30.5234°E
Lviv/Coordinates 49.842957 ° N, 24.031111° E
Poland target 50.4501° N 24.031111° E
So... Yeah.
Post by: Il Palazzo on November 16, 2022, 12:41:53 am
So correct me if I'm wrong, but I've seen that:You're off by about seven kilometres. I.e. that's not the location.
Post by: bloop_bleep on November 16, 2022, 01:17:34 am
Ok, Wikipedia precise coordinates for Poland strike: 50°28'28.0"N 23°55'39.0"E
Kyiv airstrip: 50°28'28.0"N 30°23'21.0"E (check Google Earth)
Lviv, possibly not airstrip but rail station of some sort: 49°48'52.0"N 23°55'39.0"E
Post by: Il Palazzo on November 16, 2022, 01:38:45 am
Post by: BurnedToast on November 16, 2022, 01:57:04 am
Post by: bloop_bleep on November 16, 2022, 02:00:30 am
Wikipedia precise coordinates for Poland strike: 50°28'28.0"N 23°55'39.0"E
Kyiv airstrip: 50°28'28.0"N 30°23'21.0"E
Lviv, possibly not airstrip but rail station of some sort: 49°48'52.0"N 23°55'39.0"E
Also Bay12 does not really have "internet points."
Post by: King Zultan on November 16, 2022, 03:12:57 am
Post by: bloop_bleep on November 16, 2022, 03:14:58 am
Post by: King Zultan on November 16, 2022, 05:02:21 am
Post by: KittyTac on November 16, 2022, 05:59:58 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on November 16, 2022, 06:19:14 am
In fact I did check Google Earth, just now.Thanks. That actually looks at least not outside the realm of possibility now.
Although, in fairness, what is being done here is drawing lines across two large cities, in the hopes of finding something that could resemble a target.
Post by: Starver on November 16, 2022, 06:42:24 am
Proper analysis would require assessing how many other arbitrary city-pairs could match (within city limits) any other abitrary points on arbitrary borders. It's generally true that if you go searching for facts (any convenient ones, amongst many possible) to 'explain' results that you'll come across synchronicities, but this will be limited in the case of "two points in a country contributing to a match just across its border" due to the semi-convex nature of the 'hull' of that country's extent.
And that one of them is Kiev (and a definite military target within it) reduces the arbitrariness factor somewhat, by an amount I wouldn't care to guess and would have to Monte Carlo some theoreticals.
The most worrying extension of the possibility of this ever having happened is that a misdirected Russian missile could have been landing upon Belarus or (though not so sure about this, without scanning the range of possible sources for the error) Mother Russia. And, if the hypothetical operator isn't discovered to have done what they did in time, it could have been equally assumed to have been an attack upon them by us, in a knee-jerk reaction without sufficient forensic analysis.
Post by: TamerVirus on November 16, 2022, 09:20:42 am
Post by: Starver on November 16, 2022, 10:54:12 am
(No, I'm not contemplating seriously that it's a 'deliberate mistake'.)
And, despite my wish for a Smiley Face precision 'message', all credit for it not being taken as causus belli on a hair-trigger.
Post by: bloop_bleep on November 16, 2022, 11:37:45 am
What are the chances, given there were two missiles, it was a Russian cruise missile tailed by a Ukrainian S300?
EDIT: Speaking of which, did they even speak about the second blast? Isn't the crater way too big for just an AA blast?
Air defenses also go forward to intercept, not back. It was near a power station, if the coordinate mixup thing is not convincing. NATO has an incentive to promote this narrative because if it was admitted it was Russia it would be a more difficult decision.
Post by: Lord Shonus on November 16, 2022, 03:19:17 pm
EDIT: Speaking of which, did they even speak about the second blast? Isn't the crater way too big for just an AA blast?
The missiles for an S-300 carry about as much explosive (60-80 kilos) as a US Air Force Mark 82 500 pound bomb. This is done to give it a large damage radius and thus a better chance of destroying a target.
Post by: bloop_bleep on November 16, 2022, 09:15:28 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Is it obvious I want it to not be a Ukrainian SAM...
Post by: EuchreJack on November 17, 2022, 11:47:01 pm
Post by: hector13 on November 18, 2022, 01:51:45 am
On another note, the alternative to it being a Ukrainian missile is that it was a Russian missile. I don’t think that Russian missiles killing NATO member nation’s civilians is something to wish for.
Post by: bloop_bleep on November 18, 2022, 04:09:11 am
On another note, the alternative to it being a Ukrainian missile is that it was a Russian missile. I don’t think that Russian missiles killing NATO member nation’s civilians is something to wish for.
Yeah, I've realized that aspect of it... I guess it was out of shame.
Post by: Strongpoint on November 30, 2022, 04:22:35 pm
Pope Francis....
Spending some of the few moments when I have both electricity and the internet to say that it is one of the most disgusting stuff I read from a non-Russian for quite some time.
It is a quite cute racist attempt to whitewash Russian war crimes shifting the blame to untermenshens (read People of Russian Empire whose cultures are almost destroyed by the Russian Empire)...
Those "Chechens" and "Buryats" who, among other Russians, do numerous crimes against humanity, are this way because they embraced Russian tradition betraying their own.
PS. My anti-theistic views became so much stronger since the beginning of the (new stage of) war. Organized religions are source of Evil
Post by: Superdorf on November 30, 2022, 05:15:03 pm
some of the few moments when I have both electricity and the internet
Good strength out there
Post by: Starver on November 30, 2022, 05:25:55 pm
I read (in isolation) that comment as being aligned to you, i.e. the faux-nationalists are the more despicable, though if the natively-nationalist actual Russians are being 'significantly excused' in surrounding text (that you don't include) then I can clearly see the rift between you and His Popeness. Being one of the misguided mass, in any culture but especially one which industrialises the misinformation machine, is a clear mitigating factor - albeit only marginally/comparatively so.
For a religion where "hate the sin, love the sinner" is the order of the day (theoretically!), I could certainly see the Pope not going for full national condemnation, but making even an equivocal-looking wording into what is actually a fairly serious escalation of opinion. (Not that the ~0.1% of barely-countable Catholics, within Russia, can do much to sway things in response.)
But I generalise. I don't know much at all about the Buryati. And Chechnya is famous to me mostly for an earlier clusterfuck of opposing ideologies (and I couldn't even say for sure which was objectively the least horrible) that seemed never ending (did it ever end?) and definitely created motivated radicals, some of whom are probably very useful enemies to deploy into your own most recent theatre of conflict. Useful idiots, at best; combat-hedonists, more likely. Very deliberately used as such by the Kremlin, naturally.
Not at all to dismiss your heartfelt report of your feelings, punctuated by your various blackouts. I sincerely hope to see a lot more from you and, though my words alone may be insignificant help, I'm trying to radiate only the best of best wishes to you and the others in your situation. Please continue to take care/stay lucky. (And the same to 'woke' Russians out there. Not so much potentially at the wrong end of a missile, I know, but still uneasily having to navigate a hostile political environment/etc.)
Post by: KittyTac on December 01, 2022, 04:30:13 am
It's things like this that make me glad the Orthodox Church has multiple patriarchs, not just one dude :-\Same, I don't follow Kirill.some of the few moments when I have both electricity and the internet
Good strength out there
Anyways, yeah the Chechens and Buryats who do war crimes are brainwashed and conscripted. Though Chechen culture is even more conservative and bigoted than Russian culture... don't have a high opinion of it. Buryatia is alright.
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 01, 2022, 08:26:01 am
Post by: EuchreJack on December 01, 2022, 10:52:30 am
Post by: KittyTac on December 01, 2022, 12:03:43 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on December 01, 2022, 01:27:56 pm
And who was gifted Undertale.
One wonders if this Pope destroyed anyone in their Undertale playthrough.
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 01, 2022, 01:47:10 pm
Isn't this the same Pope that likes Vegeta? ???wtf I love the pope now
Post by: King Zultan on December 02, 2022, 05:10:15 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 02, 2022, 06:00:53 am
Post by: martinuzz on December 02, 2022, 08:27:09 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 03, 2022, 06:14:03 am
Quote from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/02/animal-eyes-bloody-packages-sent-some-ukraine-embassies
“After opening the box and hearing a click that followed, he tossed it and then heard the explosion,” the ambassador to Spain, Serhii Pohoreltsev, told Ukraine’s European Pravda news site. “Despite not holding the box at the time of the explosion, the commandant hurt his hands and received a concussion.”The absolute reflexes of this bureaucrat. What a top don
Post by: Eric Blank on December 03, 2022, 04:52:29 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on December 04, 2022, 08:27:56 am
Sounds like he's had prior experience with explosive mailNever unapologetically offend chemists, engineers or botanists
Post by: Strongpoint on December 14, 2022, 11:20:02 am
According to testimonies from locals, other torture victims in the facility knew that Ukrainian children had been kept there by Russian security services, who had called the room “the children's cell.”
The children were given little water and almost no food, Lubinets said. According to locals' testimonies, the children were subjected to psychological abuse at the hands of their Russian captors, who told them that their parents had abandoned them and that they would never return home.
One 14-year-old boy was arrested and later tortured just for taking a picture of broken Russian equipment, Lubinets said.
"We recorded the torture of children for the first time," said Lubinets. "I thought that the bottom could not be broken after Buchi, Irpin... but we really reached the bottom in Kherson."
Post by: Great Order on December 14, 2022, 11:32:39 am
EDIT: You got a source for that? I'm not seeing anything.
Post by: MaxTheFox on December 14, 2022, 11:40:19 am
Sometimes I wonder if my constant murder fantasies are justified. Things like this remind me: they are. They always are.
Post by: martinuzz on December 14, 2022, 12:02:47 pm
https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-achtergrond/live-oekraiens-volk-krijgt-sacharovprijs-voor-de-vrede-kindermartelkamer-ontdekt-in-cherson-aldus-oekraiense-commissaris-voor-de-mensenrechten~ba6853a4/
Post by: Great Order on December 14, 2022, 12:10:43 pm
Found this. https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/ombudsman-childrens-torture-chamber-found-in-liberated-khersonI'm more a fan of the "Bung them in a cell for the rest of their lives and let them know how despised they are by everyone, down to former friends and family" method.
Sometimes I wonder if my constant murder fantasies are justified. Things like this remind me: they are. They always are.
Another 50 years of routine monotony with no chance of freedom and an understanding that despite all your attempts, you failed and are a failure.
Post by: Vector on December 14, 2022, 08:33:15 pm
"We recorded the torture of children for the first time," said Lubinets. "I thought that the bottom could not be broken after Buchi, Irpin... but we really reached the bottom in Kherson."
?? ?? ??
Good lord. Why do we worry about thermonuclear war when things like this are happening. The downfall of humanity has already occurred.
(You don't need to explain to me. I'm expressing my feelings).
Post by: EuchreJack on December 14, 2022, 08:38:26 pm
Post by: Great Order on December 14, 2022, 08:44:27 pm
A significant number, I'd say a solid majority, of us humans are horrified by events like this. Remember that, no matter how dark something is, there's always people opposing it in some way or another."We recorded the torture of children for the first time," said Lubinets. "I thought that the bottom could not be broken after Buchi, Irpin... but we really reached the bottom in Kherson."
?? ?? ??
Good lord. Why do we worry about thermonuclear war when things like this are happening. The downfall of humanity has already occurred.
(You don't need to explain to me. I'm expressing my feelings).
We can't untorture the kids, and we can't bring the dead back to life, but we can do what we can to ensure it never happens again.
Post by: Strongpoint on December 15, 2022, 09:48:52 am
Nice interview with Zaluzhny, commander of the Ukrainian armed forces
Post by: EuchreJack on December 15, 2022, 11:47:49 pm
It's the Rich Fucks that are mostly Against the War. Most don't really sympathize with Russia. Or American. Their sympathies are with their own survival, both physical and economic.
Only Some of them are profiting from the War, most are losing money. Furthermore, they've actually MET the folks who control the Nukes, so they feel the Nuclear Threat more, plus they've been too long without worrying about "lesser things" that could inspire sympathy for Ukraine. So they mobilize their Spin Doctors, Paid Politicians, and Pampered Professors.
Post by: Duuvian on December 16, 2022, 12:48:41 am
Subversion and class warfare is an ancient Russian government strategy through centuries, for example in the case of the Cossacks who are central to the above book, though this occurred some time after the book's setting IIRC. Though I am no expert, I've read somewhere that Russia supported wealthier landowners against the poor and possibly vice versa, though I can't recall specifically if the latter was the case though it seems quite probable as it makes the strategy more effective to inflame both groups. The result is that through this weakening many free bands/hosts were dispersed, destroyed and many others made into generations of slaves under arms for the Russian central power. Even now there are Russian Cossack battallions fighting in Ukraine, where Wagner has taken credit for their very limited and sparse successes in territorial gains. Being slaves, there is not much they can do about this at this time without being destroyed.
Here is something related. It appears there may be an international conservative (extremist, or Putinist is more fair than labelling conservatism in general as such) cabal that is sympathetic to Putinism and I guess child torture chambers. Here are two recent articles, chosen for being recent:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/14/us/politics/extremism-republicans.html
(important to note the moderates actually from NY may not have known the shit they were walking into but still a foolish thing to do in hindsight I bet)
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/15/technology/russia-state-tv-ukraine-war.html
For a counter example, I read in an article that US banks are betting that the Federal Reserve will back down in the face of a recession in regards to interest rates. I do not feel that this is part of my theorized cabal, but instead reflects financial self-interest. This does not preclude cooperation with the cabal if it serves the interest in interest rates, but I do not think it is worthy of including in the cabal theory.
In regards to banks, I feel this is a bad strategy being floated in an article I read. If the Federal Reserve brakes it's policy too early, inflation may persist. If banks are found culpable at all by the public in starting a recession, Occupy Wallstreet 2 begins, though perhaps with a more conducive name to attract fellow youthful peasants such as myself, but who lean conservative in addition to moderate and liberal. My advice would be to support the Fed in lowering inflation so that the interest rates are lowered naturally and not through pressure, without contributing to a recession at the least, and if possible attempting to use the whole superpower of finance status thing to counter recession. As EJ above has indirectly pointed out, perhaps the risk is not worth the return in the long term to do otherwise. I would also suggest that if interest rates do not tame inflation, the government(s) may have to find ways to implement some kind of broad price control scheme, as I have read at least one noted economist suggest inflation is being driven by increasing profit seeking rather than cost increases. This isn't very good for anyone unless the alternative is worse.
Post by: EuchreJack on December 16, 2022, 01:11:51 am
Post by: Duuvian on December 16, 2022, 01:15:32 am
Post by: EuchreJack on December 16, 2022, 01:17:44 am
Post by: King Zultan on December 16, 2022, 05:13:42 am
Also: I don't pay NYTimes (or anyone) for articles. Got any freebie equivalent?I've heard that if you open the link in a private browser you can read it for free.
Post by: anewaname on December 18, 2022, 01:12:49 am
My theory, at this point, is that most mainstream poor/middle class Americans sympathize on the most basic level with the Ukrainians.Yeah...Lower-class Westerners were covid-confined and sought vicarious thrills through the internet, and what better than the suspense of a threatened-then-actual war. The GOP politicians that wanted Ukrainian support to be too-little-too-late, couldn't delay in Washington because their voter base self-identified with their gun-happy Ukrainian brothers. They think "I always dreamed about shooting invading Russians in defense of my homeland... you Ukrainians are so lucky".
...
Post by: EuchreJack on December 18, 2022, 03:43:52 pm
My theory, at this point, is that most mainstream poor/middle class Americans sympathize on the most basic level with the Ukrainians.Yeah...Lower-class Westerners were covid-confined and sought vicarious thrills through the internet, and what better than the suspense of a threatened-then-actual war. The GOP politicians that wanted Ukrainian support to be too-little-too-late, couldn't delay in Washington because their voter base self-identified with their gun-happy Ukrainian brothers. They think "I always dreamed about shooting invading Russians in defense of my homeland... you Ukrainians are so lucky".
...
Yes, you correctly identify the "split" in the GOP on this issue.
I use quotes because it officially doesn't exist, as the leadership refuses to acknowledge that their base wholly supports Ukraine, and thinks their Pro-Russia propaganda is actually working. Fuck 'em.
Oh wait, there is a split:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/18/republicans-ukraine-midterm-elections (https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/18/republicans-ukraine-midterm-elections)
Post by: Strongpoint on December 20, 2022, 08:29:40 am
Hey. Just want to share this here. Visual novels about the early period of the war. Free
Post by: King Zultan on December 21, 2022, 03:20:48 am
Also related question have the Russians finally learned you don't put the general up in front of the troops so they die with the rest of them?
Post by: Duuvian on December 21, 2022, 04:19:26 am
300 tanks
700 AFV
500 howitzers
with supplies to sustain them, those tanks are particularly thirsty.
Post by: EuchreJack on December 21, 2022, 01:20:46 pm
Dang it's not even over and they've already made a novelization of it.I doubt it.
Also related question have the Russians finally learned you don't put the general up in front of the troops so they die with the rest of them?
From what little that I understand, it's a doctrinal problem that isn't going to be fixed by the Russians in this War.
But... it's never been easier to become a Russian General!
Spoiler: Free Advice to Prospective Russian Generals (click to show/hide)
Post by: Il Palazzo on December 22, 2022, 12:16:40 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on December 28, 2022, 01:39:27 am
Really good report from Bakhmum by VICE News
Post by: EuchreJack on December 28, 2022, 01:35:37 pm
https://youtu.be/1lpe1OgCbCY
Really good report from Bakhmum by VICE News
Nice, thanks for sharing!
Post by: Strongpoint on December 31, 2022, 10:36:07 am
Unusually warm winter does help, reducing strain on the energy infrastructure from electric heating.
2022 was... hmm... not boring. 2023... I expect it to be even more bloody. Russian society shows no signs of meaningful dissent and that means they will be pushed harder into mobilization and war economy.
Post by: Il Palazzo on December 31, 2022, 11:27:37 am
Post by: King Zultan on January 01, 2023, 05:07:10 am
Post by: Strongpoint on January 01, 2023, 02:45:50 pm
Speaking of Russian incompetence have any more generals died since last time it was mentioned?
Russians are impolite and don't inform us about such merry occurrences.
Post by: Madman198237 on January 01, 2023, 04:08:59 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on January 01, 2023, 05:18:53 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on January 01, 2023, 10:43:47 pm
I love how the Western segment of social networks discovers the wonders of Russian Television as something new. It is like this for the last 20 years and their New Year shows are one of the most bright examples of how utterly degraded Russian mass culture is.
*follow the link at your own risk, you may get a lethal dose of cringe*
Post by: Madman198237 on January 01, 2023, 10:51:11 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on January 02, 2023, 03:06:27 am
That is all just the standard drivel though. What annoys me is this.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1609736391843266563
Post by: Starver on January 02, 2023, 06:22:31 am
(Only bothered to read it because I momentarily couldn't for the life of me think what the "NYE" in the linking-to text was, yesterday, and I was wondered what Russia had to do with (probably) a New York-based sports team that I might or might not even know about! ;) )
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 02, 2023, 09:42:21 am
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1609719192596381696Oh dear God. Now I know what my Russian friend was saying when she said Russia today was 1984 but tackier
I love how the Western segment of social networks discovers the wonders of Russian Television as something new. It is like this for the last 20 years and their New Year shows are one of the most bright examples of how utterly degraded Russian mass culture is.
*follow the link at your own risk, you may get a lethal dose of cringe*
Post by: KittyTac on January 02, 2023, 10:50:18 am
Post by: JoshuaFH on January 02, 2023, 11:05:04 am
Post by: brewer bob on January 02, 2023, 11:16:53 am
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1609719192596381696Oh dear God. Now I know what my Russian friend was saying when she said Russia today was 1984 but tackier
I love how the Western segment of social networks discovers the wonders of Russian Television as something new. It is like this for the last 20 years and their New Year shows are one of the most bright examples of how utterly degraded Russian mass culture is.
*follow the link at your own risk, you may get a lethal dose of cringe*
Russian TV reminds me of '80s dystopian/satire movies, like Total Recall, Running Man and Robocop and the TV show clips in them.
Post by: martinuzz on January 02, 2023, 11:47:25 am
Hah, yeah, every year they have a New Year's program with that sort of gaudy, flashy style and weird faked expressions. Some years my family even watched some of it on New Years' Eve. Though they say the jokes are not great.
That is all just the standard drivel though. What annoys me is this.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1609736391843266563
Does someone have a non-twitter (i.e. Youtube) link for that?
Post by: Strongpoint on January 02, 2023, 01:15:44 pm
Hah, yeah, every year they have a New Year's program with that sort of gaudy, flashy style and weird faked expressions. Some years my family even watched some of it on New Years' Eve. Though they say the jokes are not great.
That is all just the standard drivel though. What annoys me is this.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1609736391843266563
Does someone have a non-twitter (i.e. Youtube) link for that?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1xmM2bwG8k
Post by: scriver on January 02, 2023, 01:50:39 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 02, 2023, 05:22:36 pm
I mean, the awful comment aside (and I assume that was the tone for the night), I don't see any big difference between that and your average western gala/television event. Might as well have been the Oscars or Eurovision.Eurovision will have a billion audience members larping as Americans, or wearing gaudy colours & shiny sequins, generally trying their best to be tacky and whacky. This one could pass off as Eurovision if half the audience wasn't military men in uniform smiling nervously, their gazes staring off into the dark future they see waiting behind the upbeat bops
Post by: Il Palazzo on January 02, 2023, 05:28:38 pm
Otherwise the resemblance is uncanny.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 02, 2023, 11:38:28 pm
Contrary to how I felt about Wagner mercs dying, I do feel somewhat sorry for these reservist sods. Drafted into a war they have no idea about, from their backwater villages.I feel sorry for the whole lot of them. I think I'd feel more fine if it was "necessary," but it feels much worse, because all these Russians did not die for any necessary reason. At any moment Putin could end the war, give up Crimea & Eastern Ukraine to save the lives of his people. Instead he just keeps sending in wave after wave of his own people to die for nothing. I think it's very symbolic that Wagner group spent so many lives capturing a fortified rubbish dump in Bakhmut. Ukraine will do what they must, but Putin has the choice to fall on his sword and end the actual slaughter he started to stop the pretend slaughter that never existed
I am more sad about the loss of the High School though. That's a loss to the Ukraine education system.
Responding here to not flood the news thread with opinions
You blame Putin... I blame those very men who were evaporated in that building. If all of them refused to go to the war, this war would be over. What the hell would Putin do if after he announced the mobilization people went - "Lol, nope?" Sent millions to prison? It wouldn't help to win the war and would require a separate army.
Those people weren't mindless automatons, they voluntarily came to Ukraine to kill and received exactly what wanna-be-murderers deserved. In fact, if any afterlife and karma exist, they should be grateful that their lives ended before they had a chance to murder anyone.
Post by: Great Order on January 03, 2023, 12:07:28 am
EDIT: Just to clear it up, I'm not condoning or excusing their actions, I'm just saying that expecting millions of people to spontaneously, in the face of a lifetime of propaganda and under threat of punishment with no planning whatsoever, to go "Nope" is never going to happen.
Post by: Il Palazzo on January 03, 2023, 12:54:53 am
Post by: bloop_bleep on January 03, 2023, 04:10:56 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 03, 2023, 05:10:07 am
Responding here to not flood the news thread with opinionsThat's fair, but it's more a trouble of organising. A single person protesting in Russia just gets conscripted and sent to the front lines anyways, a single army deserter gets shot for mutinying anyways, the trouble is getting everyone to do so at the same time. I'm not too judgemental because not everyone there wants to be there; that's the whole point of a conscript army
You blame Putin... I blame those very men who were evaporated in that building. If all of them refused to go to the war, this war would be over. What the hell would Putin do if after he announced the mobilization people went - "Lol, nope?" Sent millions to prison? It wouldn't help to win the war and would require a separate army.
Yeah. Don't you watch those interviews with the POWs? It's a society habituated to resigned conformism. Asking them to collectively turn on a dime and stand up for themselves is like asking a depressive to 'just stop being such a pussy'.Reminds me of that one depressing video where it's just one russian conscript smoking in a ditch surrounded by the dead bodies of other conscripts. No winter coats, no guns, no food, no fuel, no purpose, just being sent into a trench to wait for a while until you're shelled. Can't retreat or you'll get shot, can't go forwards because you'll get shot. At least the Ukrainians are getting better at finding novel ways to induce Russian surrenders, e.g. surrendering to a drone is not something I thought many people thought would even be possible
Post by: EuchreJack on January 03, 2023, 07:28:28 pm
I blame Putin.
For one thing, he certainly does NOT sympathize with any of the people in the military that he is sending off to die. They certainly are NOT his people. Those he has any real attachment or respect do NOT get sent to Ukraine. He keeps those close to home, where they can keep him in Power.
I think we can lump many of the Russian Conscripts in the Victim category of the Russian Aggression. They're basically dead the second they're conscripted.
Post by: Starver on January 03, 2023, 08:54:17 pm
A couple (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64155859) of (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64159045) news articles (sharing many details) look at the fallout from the New Year's attack by the HIMARS.
Notable are the satellite images, which seem to show no gross structural damage to buildings beyond the site itself, with the wonders of modern missioe tech (when it works/is used properly!) contrasting with carpet-bombing techniques of prior conflicts - but that resolution/sharpness of image ('commercial' level, probably not the top notch stuff that the various intelligence agencies get to see) can't rule out many windows blown out, or more...
And the unsurprising claims that it was the soldiers' own faults (for using mobile phones "within range of Ukrainean assets"), leading to counter-recriminations about their commanders, etc... And, really, given how deep into the Russian-held corridor that is, I think it'll be a bit more than just some vague RF triangulation from the other side of the front line. Probably a quite different intelligence-coup/secrecy-failure, that may or may not involve mobile phones but in some quite different form of geolocating that isn't exactly hard to anticipate being a problem/opportunity.
Post by: Random_Dragon on January 04, 2023, 01:32:59 am
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/348598573220495361/1060081784664113232/image.png)
Spoiler: context (click to show/hide)
Post by: martinuzz on January 04, 2023, 05:34:25 am
from the BBC article:
A couple (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64155859) of (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64159045) news articles (sharing many details) look at the fallout from the New Year's attack by the HIMARS.
Quote from: a Russian widow
neither we nor our husbands wanted war; the entire West united against us to eliminate us and our childrenEven if Russia were to admit defeat and withdraw from Ukraine..
How are we going to de-brainwash the Russian population? How are we going to stop a generation from growing up sincerely believing that we are the agressors that killed their daddies, brothers, sons?
We have to, somehow, or we'll end up with a nation hating us even without the need for state propaganda.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 04, 2023, 06:21:04 am
Even if Russia were to admit defeat and withdraw from Ukraine..
How are we going to de-brainwash the Russian population? How are we going to stop a generation from growing up sincerely believing that we are the agressors that killed their daddies, brothers, sons?
We have to, somehow, or we'll end up with a nation hating us even without the need for state propaganda.
It is a neat psychological game. They know the truth. They are just too shy to tell it (usually). They know that it is a war of genocide and a (re)conquest, and they are proud of it. But they are pissed that it is not going too well and angry at NATO because they help those Ukrainian untermenschen
Earlier in this thread I posted a video with "Like it or not Russia is enlarging" It is their true mood. Sometimes it smashes through all that - "Russia is under attack" bullcrap.
How do you cure this kind of attitude? Just like Germans were cured. Moscow must become like Mariupol. Only then they may understand that war is a BAD thing. Sadly, Russian nukes make it impossible.
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 04, 2023, 06:56:30 am
Post by: KittyTac on January 04, 2023, 07:23:17 am
I do want him to suffer for it.
Post by: martinuzz on January 04, 2023, 07:30:39 am
Post by: KittyTac on January 04, 2023, 07:52:24 am
That must be horrible for you, to be so divided amongst close familyAt least I have successfully deprogrammed my mother. I had to socially-engineer her friend group to fall apart and get her banned from their group chat for it to stick. But it was all worth it.
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 04, 2023, 12:55:32 pm
"Everything's fucked but I'll just get drunk on vodka and wait for my turn to die" mindset
Post by: bloop_bleep on January 04, 2023, 05:43:24 pm
How pathetic is it to so easily accept the idea of dying for people you know are idiots and criminals? I mean, how lowly can one value one's own life?
Post by: martinuzz on January 04, 2023, 05:55:44 pm
Interesting intercepts from russian conscripts showing their fatalistic mindset (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBIokLP-uWg)
Quote
Why the f**k they send you back if the wound on your leg was stitched up only 1 week ago?
I've had one crippled military dwarf beat a whole siege to death using only his crutch. He was my Special Operative.
The Russian army needs combat crutches.
Post by: hector13 on January 04, 2023, 06:15:43 pm
The Russian Army: the two rats you found in the foxhole to mitigate the personnel shortage, a tampon to mitigate the bullet holes, and a bottle of vodka to mitigate the brain.
How pathetic is it to so easily accept the idea of dying for people you know are idiots and criminals? I mean, how lowly can one value one's own life?
What do you think they do to deserters?
Post by: bloop_bleep on January 04, 2023, 08:43:42 pm
Besides, who are they going to send after them if they have 50 people in a battalion? The aforementioned rats?
Post by: hector13 on January 04, 2023, 08:54:28 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on January 05, 2023, 02:13:21 am
Why would they go over the frontline? Would you abandon everything you ever knew, never mind to be taken prisoner by a group of people you’re told will torture and kill you just for being Russian?
You keep pretending that it is the early 20th century with no sources of information except state propaganda. Believe it or not, those soldiers have mobile phones and the internet. They also often have relatives\friends\acquitances from the other side to ask. At the very least they have enough info to assume that there is a chance that killed and tortured may be not true and it is worth the risk.
One recent event is a grim illustration of Russian mentality for me:
Russian soldier was found hanged in one of the occupied Ukrainian cities. The stated reason of the suicide that he was being raped by Kadyrovets. A guy who had full access to an assault rifle, hand grenades, etc... just decided to silently kill himself instead of some kind of rebellion or revenge
Post by: hector13 on January 05, 2023, 02:27:32 am
Again, though, at what point do you give up everything you have ever known, knowing your actions will probably result in punishment on whatever loved ones you have back home, and you’ll probably never be able to go back?
Post by: Strongpoint on January 05, 2023, 03:05:18 am
Post by: Starver on January 05, 2023, 04:17:31 am
Believe it or not, those soldiers have mobile phones and the internet.I suspect that this (in context of access to wider-world information and dispiriting calls back home to their relatives) was actually a major factor in blaming soldiers' phones for the recent attack.
"It's for your own safety, and the greater good of Russia, to isolate yourself from everything but your military commanders!"
TBH, that's something all armies would prefer, and many tried, through blue-penned (or snipped out - so best only to write on one side of the paper) censoring of mail to and from the front-line as the compromise for morale reasons, both at the war-front and home-front. Which is the kind of industrial effort that has been grossly outpaced by the technical capabilities of livestreaming unfettered realities. State sanctioned channels of communications would be highly prefered by those at the head of of the war-machine, though not by those at the coal-face.
Spoiler: e.g., from WW1 (British) (click to show/hide)
And this all-in-one WW2 solution (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-mail) (US, but again pinched from us Limeys ;) ) to bulk mail, with the anti-espionage 'features' of being duplicated beyond the means of using microdots/invisible ink that might escape the ubiquitous censors' strict and curt attention.
Though there were "Addressee code tricks" that you could still pull (developed from the ones used in the "pay on receipt" days of mail, to avoid shelling out on letters that already had conveyed their main message just by how they looked), if arranged in advance. e.g. if to "Mrs Martha Smith", your mother knew you actually were feeling well, "Mrs M. Smith" revealed that you had a non-worrying injury, and further variations on from there. (My google-fu is failing to find anything about it, within the mountains of info on how to send mail to serving soldiers of various nations... But I'm sure it's a known trick. So much so that I wouldn't be surprised to hear that it has been 'locked down' by one or other military postal service by only allowing a 'registered' contact-detail to ever be used, per recipient, under the guise (maybe) of handy pre-printed stationary, per instance, "for everyone's convenience". Not that there aren't ways round that, of course.)
Post by: Starver on January 05, 2023, 04:39:03 am
Post by: martinuzz on January 05, 2023, 04:54:22 am
Post by: Strongpoint on January 05, 2023, 05:25:19 am
Ukrainian forces claim they have killed 800 Russian soldiers in the past 12 hours.You mean 24, right? I always wonder how accurate are those. One should never be too eager to trust someone's claims about enemy losses. On other hand, Bakhmut alone is a bloodbath.
Post by: KittyTac on January 05, 2023, 05:48:13 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 05, 2023, 09:00:23 am
TBH, that's something all armies would prefer, and many tried, through blue-penned (or snipped out - so best only to write on one side of the paper) censoring of mail to and from the front-line as the compromise for morale reasons, both at the war-front and home-front. Which is the kind of industrial effort that has been grossly outpaced by the technical capabilities of livestreaming unfettered realities. State sanctioned channels of communications would be highly prefered by those at the head of of the war-machine, though not by those at the coal-face.
That sort of thing wasn't just for morale reasons, and morale probably wasn't even a primary factor. You can get an incredible amount of information from even genuinely innocent comments, so if your letter home gets somehow read by the enemy - your family member shares it with somebody that happens to be a spy, it gets read in church where somebody is a spy, it gets read on local radio and picked up by a Japanese boat because radio transmissions are funky that way, etc- you can reveal a lot.
Even for something like Pearl Harbor, the exact results of the attack would be classified as much as possible as long as possible to try hiding a success from the enemy. Because if they know there's only two carriers to chase them, they'll act differently than if they think there's four or five superdreadnoughts left.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 05, 2023, 11:05:23 am
I hope our leaders aren't idiots and won't fall for this primitive trap
Post by: Eric Blank on January 05, 2023, 05:22:40 pm
This is very true for the letters my great grandfather sent home to my great grandma. "Loose lips sink ships" was very much the motto of the day, his letters never revealed times or dates or locations, to protect his ship. If Japanese patrols did intercept a mail carrier, and someone included such information, it could compromise their position and movements and get them killed. So censorship in the field is very important, and it's understandable the Russians, as evil as they are, would want to keep their troops from using personal devices in the field that could compromise their positions. That's just good sense. The fact they're failing to do that is a huge strategic failure on their part.
Ukranian forces should also be exercising the highest caution when using their phones in the field, because they can compromise themselves the same way Russian troops are (Metadata from images and GPS locations/cell towers used in texts and calls) and get their whole unit killed.
It's not just about propaganda. Loose lips sink ships, and now you have to keep your personal spying on your every move devices from squaking too.
Post by: Starver on January 05, 2023, 07:07:23 pm
OpSec has been very lax, probably was the ruin of some of those amazingly fragile Generals, and I'm sure they have done much (as have all sides) to remove the free flow of identifying info into the non-partisan cyberverse and thence the opposition, but I suspect that they're going further and trying to prevent 'antipropoganda' leaking back home as well. It would actually be a perfectly rational and wise thing to do, by any leadership, but (despite that) I actually still suspect that Russia is doing it to some extent.
Post by: Eric Blank on January 05, 2023, 07:58:55 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 07, 2023, 06:38:22 pm
So, Russia begs for a free day to resupply and reinforce... I mean they proposed a ceasefire for the orthodox Christmas...Ceasefire didn't last very long before Russians started shelling bakhmut again
I hope our leaders aren't idiots and won't fall for this primitive trap
Post by: EuchreJack on January 07, 2023, 07:14:20 pm
So, Russia begs for a free day to resupply and reinforce... I mean they proposed a ceasefire for the orthodox Christmas...Ceasefire didn't last very long before Russians started shelling bakhmut again
I hope our leaders aren't idiots and won't fall for this primitive trap
Er, that was a mistake by a rogue general whom will be forced to return to Moscow at ONCEfor a medal
Russia totally wants to keep the ceasefirewhere they can keep moving supplies, reinforcements, and fire missiles without retaliation
Post by: King Zultan on January 08, 2023, 02:00:30 am
Er, that was a mistake by a rogue general whom will be forced to return to Moscow at ONCEfor a medalNa man it was a Ukrainian spy a Russian would never lie or do something they said they wouldn't.
Russia totally wants to keep the ceasefirewhere they can keep moving supplies, reinforcements, and fire missiles without retaliation
Post by: Strongpoint on January 08, 2023, 06:40:27 am
It may also mean, that in a few days, when the ground will freeze, new offensive(s) may start somewhere.
Post by: EuchreJack on January 09, 2023, 03:25:27 am
I was originally thinking about the treaded vehicles, but wheeled seems even worse.
Post by: Starver on January 09, 2023, 05:52:19 am
Some advantages over them being in actual mud (it doesn't flow back again/fill up with groundwater), some disadvantages (harder to actually dig). Tactical (and strategic) needs will shape what state it was left in and what prompts any renewed effort to get it moving.
On the whole, experienced forces will avoid 'losing' (temporarily) as many vehicles as they possibly can by treating certain bits of landscape as a "natural minefield", and the freezing of the ground will then just let them use that ground again without the same level of disabling risk. Also a marked difference in the leaving of telltail trackmarks/etc, in inconvenient numbers.
[1] Would depend upon how active the site is in the ongoing theatre of war. And if this piece of equipment could be deemed "in reserve, for furure eventualities" rather than actually desperately needed now regardless of the practicalities of getting it moving.
Post by: anewaname on January 10, 2023, 01:58:29 am
Post by: Starver on January 10, 2023, 08:33:20 am
And the rookie error of not examining/preparing the ground upon which to rest up/operate in-situ is probably something well trained out of the current forces. (The danger may now become one of apparently frozen but imminently thawing ground, but the morning Sun isn't likely to penetrate so deeply into semipermafrost.)
Possibly, more likely, is setting up in a dip/ditch in the ground which the immediate slight thawing of the area causes to reveive disproportionately more runoff than expected. Having myself set up a tent half way up a mountain in a hollow (with the latest in a series of a scenic views (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tour_du_Mont_Blanc) of another mountain) and then by morning discovered that a significant trickle rain/meltwater tended to flow through the very spot I was pitched... Didn't make that mistake twice, albeit that I'd doubt this experience alone would make me any better at successfully laying up an AFV in good order in a (near-)combat situation.
Also, I meant to add (and the real intent of this new post) that tracked vehicles actually stuck in mud might yet dig themselves out once the mud is frozen. So long as the drivechain and tracks themselves aren't gripped too hard in the ice itself. It's when wheels (and typical chassis protusions) of a vehicle are axle-deep in now-frozen depressions that you might need more than enginepower, and perhaps some handy bundles of vegetation, to (eventually) extract yourself. But this is going to be something that experienced commanderss/drivers will know much more about and pass the subtleties on to their more green compatriots.
(Not sure what the mix is between 'veterans' (of at least a year) and greenhorns, in the respective armies. I get the impression that Russia is more likely to build up units with a greater concentration of the latter, as time goes on, while Ukraine is heading in the opposite direction.)
Post by: Strongpoint on January 11, 2023, 06:40:31 am
Post by: Strongpoint on January 14, 2023, 09:47:01 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
It was a residential building in a city far from the frontlines with no military or even industrial targets nearby. With no warning, a ballistic missile hit on a weekend when people are at home
Post by: Horizon on January 14, 2023, 10:49:33 am
Let it end peacefully, I pray to god it does.
Post by: Madman198237 on January 14, 2023, 11:13:01 am
For the love of god, to think Russia fought the Nazi's way back in the WW is unthinkable when their marching against a country not for a noble purpose but to claim territory and kill innocent people?
The Russians have not intentionally fought evil at ANY point in the last century or so. They fought WITH the Nazis at the start of the war to seize territory in Poland and attacked Finland on their own. THAT was the choice that Russia made at the beginning of WWII; it most certainly wasn't anywhere near the side of good. They joined the Allies only because the Nazis tried to take them out. Not a single good choice was made by the Soviet scum back then, they were actively forced to leave the Axis.
That is the history of modern Russia I guess, more than a century of spineless cowardice and evil. Evil for obvious reasons from the murders of the revolutions to WWII to Ukraine today, spineless cowardice that they STILL have a government capable of doing such things today.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 14, 2023, 12:20:39 pm
The closest thing it had to war was a few days of low-intensity fighting in late 1917 and a modest number of German aircrafts breaking through in bombing raids (Moscow had ridiculous air defense, everything was stripped for protecting their precious first-grade Soviet citizen asses... It kinda worked because Hitler insisted on bombing Moscow..." and even if some men went to war and never returned - it is not the same as seeing war. Especially considering that veterans were heavily discouraged from telling the truth about the war.
And speaking of WW2, the majority of Russia has never seen any Germans or experienced the joy of "liberation" (read reconquest) by the Red Army of immoral looters and rapists who were outright worse than any Germans (unless you were a Jew), Ukraine and Belarus experienced that.
Post by: Horizon on January 14, 2023, 12:41:02 pm
For the love of god, to think Russia fought the Nazi's way back in the WW is unthinkable when their marching against a country not for a noble purpose but to claim territory and kill innocent people?
The Russians have not intentionally fought evil at ANY point in the last century or so. They fought WITH the Nazis at the start of the war to seize territory in Poland and attacked Finland on their own. THAT was the choice that Russia made at the beginning of WWII; it most certainly wasn't anywhere near the side of good. They joined the Allies only because the Nazis tried to take them out. Not a single good choice was made by the Soviet scum back then, they were actively forced to leave the Axis.
That is the history of modern Russia I guess, more than a century of spineless cowardice and evil. Evil for obvious reasons from the murders of the revolutions to WWII to Ukraine today, spineless cowardice that they STILL have a government capable of doing such things today.
Yeah poor choice of words on my part, there was nothing noble about their reasons to go to war with Nazi Germany. They murdered civilians, committed war crimes and their not any different today. They are still definitely as bad as they were back then, I was more just amazed to think of the actions the Russia have made in the past and now present. Noble, there is nothing 'noble' about Russia.
Post by: Random_Dragon on January 14, 2023, 12:47:33 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 14, 2023, 01:12:19 pm
There is something hilarious when a so-called 2nd army in the world celebrates capturing a 10k town (Soledar, near Bakhmut) in a months-long battle.
Quote from: https://wartranslated.com/russian-volunteer-murz-on-why-russia-is-not-ready-to-defend-ukrainian-winter-offensive/
In other sectors of the front, the Russian command does not need such a goading, as it voluntarily drives to slaughter the last remnants of the infantry, no longer very combat-ready due to previous losses. The Russian military has an incredible talent for turning any village with a couple of landings and a pig farm into Verdun, on which their own, not enemy, units are ground. Why? Yes, because “BUSV”, the Combat Charter of the Ground Forces, these people do not open and read almost ever. And more than any “Javelins” and “HIMARS”, more than any “NATO satellite groups” fighting against us is the Combat Charter of our own Ground Forces, on which our valiant command wanted to shit. And ukrops [Ukrainians] – they read it and creatively processed it, taking into account the available new technologies.>sacrifice all of your remaining combat ready units to capture Verdun village that has no transport links, no supply hubs, no strategic purpose
In the text about radio communications, I described the main problem of command and control in the Russian army, due to which the army cannot really advance, cannot maneuver, and cannot even fully repel enemy attacks. Nothing larger than the “remnants of a motorized rifle battalion” in the RF Armed Forces can be controlled as a single organism. And, of course, in this situation, the battalion commanders and company commanders of these “remnants” become well-deserved heroes, who, if possible, drag all the shit on their own backs. Although more often, alas, they don’t. And they are buried with their subordinates when, after half a dozen assaults, each organized worse than the previous one, we still capture another piece of land and collect their rotten remains.
From the fact that the Russian army can do nothing except for, bleeding, capture another village while surrendering a district center or an entire region on the other flank, the Russian army made an amazing conclusion – let’s take more villages! And arranged the maximum possible Verduns along the entire front line, including the very infamous Pavlovka in the DPR. And, of course, Bakhmut. How could it be without it? Why not kill the last remnants of combat-ready infantry at it? It’s not possible at all. These fucking bastards need to get positive motives for the news somewhere! Here, we freed another 100 meters of such and such village. And whoever is the first to report on the complete liberation of the village gets an order.
>Ukrainian troops retreat to the other Verdun village behind that one
>reorganise survivors, repeat
Post by: King Zultan on January 15, 2023, 03:00:43 am
Post by: Horizon on January 15, 2023, 03:07:59 am
At the rate they die there won't be any Russians left in Russia after the war.You mean cause either they die or the civilian population flees Russia?
Post by: King Zultan on January 15, 2023, 03:27:53 am
YesAt the rate they die there won't be any Russians left in Russia after the war.You mean cause either they die or the civilian population flees Russia?
Post by: scriver on January 15, 2023, 05:12:16 am
At the rate they die there won't be any Russians left in Russia after the war.
As I understand the national makeup of their forces: there'd only be Russians left in Russia
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 15, 2023, 05:28:04 am
Russian generals when showing to the dictionary meaning of "ground forces" pointed to the wrong entryAttack where your enemy is strong, drink when your enemy is weak #maximum verdun attritional ground up forces grindset
Post by: Strongpoint on January 15, 2023, 05:28:24 am
At the rate they die there won't be any Russians left in Russia after the war.
Ukraine claims around 500 per day. Let's round up to 1000 to include the wounded. Russia has around 30M males fit for military service... Even if we cut it in half to 15M assuming that some need to work in the economy, will flee, etc... we are talking about 15000 days, aka ~40 years
Post by: MaxTheFox on January 15, 2023, 05:53:42 am
Post by: King Zultan on January 16, 2023, 03:41:38 am
Pretty sure Zultan was joking.A lot of what I've said in this thread are jokes which can be taken as seriously as people want. This includes the last thing I said.
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 19, 2023, 05:39:02 am
Quote
‘I serve Russia and Wagner,’ Gasparyan told Putin as he was being awarded the medal.WHOM DO YOU SERVE?!!
SARUUUUUUMAAAAAAAAAAAN
Quote
“Criminals with combat experience will return to society, hmm, encouraging,” an anonymous commenter told state-run news agency RIA Novosti.well that'll be spicy
Post by: Strongpoint on January 19, 2023, 07:49:57 am
And yeah, even if 10% of Wagner-trained criminals will return home... It will be... entertaining... But I think the plan is that they simply won't come back.
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 19, 2023, 08:59:54 am
Not as epic as burying a guy, who had beaten his own mother to death, with military honors (prooflink in Russian (https://www.currenttime.tv/a/na-urale-s-voinskimi-pochestyami-pohoronili-boytsa-chvk-vagnera/32220476.html)
And yeah, even if 10% of Wagner-trained criminals will return home... It will be... entertaining... But I think the plan is that they simply won't come back.
Quote
In Serov, Sverdlovsk region, a solemn funeral was held for 46-year-old Wagner PMC fighter Sergei Molodtsov. In 2017, he was convicted of beating his elderly mother to death while intoxicated. “Possessing a sense of selflessness, he committed a heroic deed. And he gave the most valuable thing - life,” the publication quotes the words of the funeral director.Is this just an elaborate comedy bit?
Post by: MaxTheFox on January 19, 2023, 09:54:24 am
Post by: Jrleebus on January 19, 2023, 11:21:20 am
Wagner moment.i came here with no context and misread this as "wanker moment"
Post by: nenjin on January 19, 2023, 11:22:37 am
Post by: Horizon on January 19, 2023, 12:10:36 pm
BasedWagner moment.i came here with no context and misread this as "wanker moment"
Post by: EuchreJack on January 19, 2023, 12:28:30 pm
Not as epic as burying a guy, who had beaten his own mother to death, with military honors (prooflink in Russian (https://www.currenttime.tv/a/na-urale-s-voinskimi-pochestyami-pohoronili-boytsa-chvk-vagnera/32220476.html)Moscow is gonna need more cops...
And yeah, even if 10% of Wagner-trained criminals will return home... It will be... entertaining... But I think the plan is that they simply won't come back.
Post by: Starver on January 19, 2023, 01:26:18 pm
...with combat experience! ;)And yeah, even if 10% of Wagner-trained criminals will return home... It will be... entertaining... But I think the plan is that they simply won't come back.Moscow is gonna need more cops...
Post by: Egan_BW on January 19, 2023, 01:30:13 pm
Post by: King Zultan on January 20, 2023, 02:28:13 am
Post by: Strongpoint on January 20, 2023, 02:55:42 am
Sounds like things might get interesting if those Wagner wankers come home.
Russian patriotic ladies should remember that it is impolite to say no to Wagner heroes (not that those people understand the concept of no...)
Dark jokes aside, It is terrifying what can happen in Russia with the likes of Prigozhin getting more power
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 20, 2023, 11:12:21 am
How to keep criminals from committing crimes? Give them professional immunity.Crime rate falls to 0%
Post by: martinuzz on January 20, 2023, 11:55:45 am
Post by: bloop_bleep on January 20, 2023, 12:29:35 pm
Not as epic as burying a guy, who had beaten his own mother to death, with military honors (prooflink in Russian (https://www.currenttime.tv/a/na-urale-s-voinskimi-pochestyami-pohoronili-boytsa-chvk-vagnera/32220476.html)Moscow is gonna need more cops...
And yeah, even if 10% of Wagner-trained criminals will return home... It will be... entertaining... But I think the plan is that they simply won't come back.
You kidding? Those are the same people!
Post by: Egan_BW on January 20, 2023, 12:41:14 pm
Great success!How to keep criminals from committing crimes? Give them professional immunity.Crime rate falls to 0%
Post by: anewaname on January 20, 2023, 12:56:55 pm
It happens because the more dangerous the military special expedition is, the better the criminals become at being organized, and "organized crime" hates "crime".
Post by: Grim Portent on January 20, 2023, 01:36:32 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 20, 2023, 02:37:15 pm
They are succeeding in one very significant way - they're very close to the same level of incompetence* that most Waffen-SS units showed.
*Yes, incompetence. Despite a formidable reputation, SS units usually fared quite a bit poorer on the battlefield than similarly equipped units from the other branches. What good results they had were more because Hitler liked them and got them better (or at least more) equipment.
Post by: EuchreJack on January 20, 2023, 05:47:28 pm
Wagner is trying very hard to be the Waffen-SS - an allegedly elite separate military organization that isn't part of the chain of command.They have similar origins: Both are civilian murderers with military equipment and support from the Leader.
They are succeeding in one very significant way - they're very close to the same level of incompetence* that most Waffen-SS units showed.
*Yes, incompetence. Despite a formidable reputation, SS units usually fared quite a bit poorer on the battlefield than similarly equipped units from the other branches. What good results they had were more because Hitler liked them and got them better (or at least more) equipment.
They probably have similar objectives, unfortunately.
Post by: Starver on January 20, 2023, 06:37:00 pm
The usual chain of events when you send criminals to fight and murder (a.k.a. colonization), is that the criminals either become legit or get killed off by those that went legit (in both the source country and the target country).
It happens because the more dangerous the military special expedition is, the better the criminals become at being organized, and "organized crime" hates "crime".
https://discworldquotes.tumblr.com/post/150983136815/one-of-the-patricians-greatest-contributions-to
(If only. In an imperfect world, I don't see that as being as bad as what it can otherwise be. But Putin aint a Vetinari. In some ways somewhere between Lord Winder and Lord Snapcase, but with shades of Olaf Quimby II that I hope eventually will come back to bite him.)
Post by: EuchreJack on January 21, 2023, 12:01:07 am
Post by: Strongpoint on January 21, 2023, 02:14:31 am
Putin isn't good enough to be compared to any of the characters in Terry Pratchett's Discworld series. Those folks have to be interesting enough to survive and thrive on the Discworld. Putin's just another Hitler/Stalin retread. I sincerely hope he's mostly forgotten in Twenty years...
I doubt the forgotten part.
Scenario 1) A minor Russian Defeat (which will leave still leave a large country named Russia in one form or another), Russians will use him as a scapegoat for all crimes... before bringing him to the rank of their saints a few decades later.
Scenario 2) Major Russian collapse, which will turn Russia in an area of a bloody civil war... Putin will be remembered as the guy who caused that.
Scenario 3) Russia will somehow win and be able to conquer Ukraine. It will cause a genocide of the Holocaust scale securing a major place in history.
Scenario 4) Russia will start a nuclear war. This will keep Putin in the history books of whatever civilization that will come out of the war.
Post by: King Zultan on January 21, 2023, 02:15:47 am
Wagner is trying very hard to be the Waffen-SSBut do they kill each other off as much as the SS did?
Post by: martinuzz on January 21, 2023, 02:57:33 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 21, 2023, 03:23:09 pm
Putin isn't good enough to be compared to any of the characters in Terry Pratchett's Discworld series. Those folks have to be interesting enough to survive and thrive on the Discworld. Putin's just another Hitler/Stalin retread. I sincerely hope he's mostly forgotten in Twenty years...
I doubt the forgotten part.
Scenario 1) A minor Russian Defeat (which will leave still leave a large country named Russia in one form or another), Russians will use him as a scapegoat for all crimes... before bringing him to the rank of their saints a few decades later.
Scenario 2) Major Russian collapse, which will turn Russia in an area of a bloody civil war... Putin will be remembered as the guy who caused that.
Scenario 3) Russia will somehow win and be able to conquer Ukraine. It will cause a genocide of the Holocaust scale securing a major place in history.
Scenario 4) Russia will start a nuclear war. This will keep Putin in the history books of whatever civilization that will come out of the war.
Scenario 5) A humiliated Russia develops a strong anarchist movement, which takes over the government. Then proceeds to aggressively tame all sectors of the economy to rebuild military might - rebuilding a far more capable army to avenge their defeat a generation from now. Putin becomes the plaster saint who was "betrayed" by "elites" in the highest halls of power, who stabbed Glorious Mother Russia in the back.
This is the one that keeps me up at night sometimes. It may look kind of familiar.
Post by: Duuvian on January 21, 2023, 10:32:26 pm
If the latter TBH I don't see Secenario 5 as a likely outcome. If the former, maybe, depending on who consolidates power. Particularly if it's one of the ones wanking to Stalinism (minus the communism).
Post by: MaxTheFox on January 21, 2023, 10:54:45 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 21, 2023, 11:34:35 pm
It should read "strong revanchist" movement.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 22, 2023, 05:44:46 am
Those
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 22, 2023, 07:50:45 am
Wagner is trying very hard to be the Waffen-SS - an allegedly elite separate military organization that isn't part of the chain of command.Similar story with the Kadyvorites. It's easy to appear formidable and strong when your opposition has thus far consisted of journalists shooting at you with cameras. But the moment the kadyvorites encountered Ukrainian soldiers, eh, not so invincible anymore
They are succeeding in one very significant way - they're very close to the same level of incompetence* that most Waffen-SS units showed.
*Yes, incompetence. Despite a formidable reputation, SS units usually fared quite a bit poorer on the battlefield than similarly equipped units from the other branches. What good results they had were more because Hitler liked them and got them better (or at least more) equipment.
Post by: anewaname on January 23, 2023, 01:53:55 am
Post by: King Zultan on January 23, 2023, 05:32:49 am
Post by: anewaname on January 23, 2023, 12:51:40 pm
But trials and kidnapping are a lot of work why not save time and just shoot him?That "attitude" (the more murderly-minded attitude, not the lighter attitude that I presume you're taking), is why countries like the USA can't recognize the ICC.
The idea of a "assassination" always births the idea of "just retribution" and it always escalates to "just war", and there is no "just war" that doesn't involve killing lots of civilians somewhere, which is where "war crimes" come from. Desert Storm was a good example of a "just war" that was carried out successfully, but what happened both before and after in that region? Back 1910-ish, the UK set up British Petroleum to secure future oil supplies by supporting state overthrow in the Gulf region (were assassinations involved? well, delivering military equipment is "a lot of work why not save time and just shoot him"?).
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
This conflict with Russia invading Ukraine, this is just "colonization version n.nnn". It was done to maintain Russia's economic control of cheaply produced and cheaply transported natural gas into the EU, to prevent Western businesses from using Ukrainian reserves to replace Russian piped gas into the EU.
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 23, 2023, 03:46:57 pm
But trials and kidnapping are a lot of work why not save time and just shoot him?That "attitude" (the more murderly-minded attitude, not the lighter attitude that I presume you're taking), is why countries like the USA can't recognize the ICC.
The idea of a "assassination" always births the idea of "just retribution" and it always escalates to "just war", and there is no "just war" that doesn't involve killing lots of civilians somewhere, which is where "war crimes" come from. Desert Storm was a good example of a "just war" that was carried out successfully, but what happened both before and after in that region? Back 1910-ish, the UK set up British Petroleum to secure future oil supplies by supporting state overthrow in the Gulf region (were assassinations involved? well, delivering military equipment is "a lot of work why not save time and just shoot him"?).Spoiler (click to show/hide)Spoiler (click to show/hide)
This conflict with Russia invading Ukraine, this is just "colonization version n.nnn". It was done to maintain Russia's economic control of cheaply produced and cheaply transported natural gas into the EU, to prevent Western businesses from using Ukrainian reserves to replace Russian piped gas into the EU.
This is extremely flawed. To begin with, drawing a straight line from British colonialism in the 1910s to the Iraqi invasion of Saudi Arabia is pretty sketchy. The British did put in the government that was overthrown by the government that was overthrown by the B'aathist movement that eventually put Saddam in power, as part of the dissolution of the Ottoman empire following the First World War. It is also accurate to say that the Pan-Arab movement that overthrew the Hashemite monarchy was motivated by a Arab nationalist movement that wanted Foreigners Out, but the inciting incident was more complex than mere colonialism - the Hashemite king had entered into an alliance with other states in the region (under British advice) that led to severe tensions with Egypt. Egypt eventually responded to these tensions by seizing the Suez canal. This led to a war in which Iraq - a British ally - was compelled to participate. The final straw was the formation of the United Arab Republic between Egypt and Syria. Rather than joining it, the Hashemite regime of Iraq created a second Arab union with the Hashemite regime of Jordan. This was seen as British puppetmastering and led to a "Foreigners Out!" coup.
From this point, blaming the history of the region on any Colonial Power (except possibly the USSR, but even that is pretty iffy) becomes very difficult. The new leader backpedaled on joining the UAR on the insistence of the Iraqi Communist Party, greatly upsetting the pan-Arab nationalists, which was made worse (even if it proved the decision correct!) when the UAR collapsed because of severe differences between the two member countries a few years later. So the B'aathists spent a little time building power and launched a coup. After a few months of bloody purges, "Iraq first" and "Pan-Arabism" again led to violence, and the Pan-Arab portion of the government wound up purged and a new government formed. This government in turn would be overthrown by the B'aathists (bloodlessly this time) about five years later. There were a large number of claims of foreign plots to undermine the new government, with lots of executions, but little evidence has been found to substantiate these claims. It is very possible, even likely, that they were manufactured out of whole cloth to shore up the new government's stability.
After about ten years, Saddam took over, carried out the traditional purge, and went about his business. The path to the Gulf War started in 1980, when Saddam feared that Iran's Shia theocracy would foment an uprising among Iraq's Shia-majority population against the nominally secular and Sunni dominated government. Iraq's defeat in this ten-year conflict bankrupted the country and massively eroded the government's position. They couldn't even pay the troops on demobilization, and there's a pretty big risk involved in telling large numbers of armed men that they have to hand in their guns and get nothing for years of risking their lives. But Iraq had a couple of very weak but very rich neighbors and a lot of armed men who'd spent years learning to fight. After interpreting a "I can't take a position on that" from the US ambssador as "That's your business, the US will not get involved" instead of "that's above my pay grade, I'll have to talk to Washington about their stance on this", they launched a Short Victorious War against Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. After several months of building up, this invasion was obliterated in Desert Storm with no mass civilian death or war crimes happening.
Putting all that down to "colonialism" is the same thing as saying "those brown people over their have no agency of their own, they're just mindless puppets doing whatever the Real People tell them to do".
As for your other example, nobody ever really claimed Vietnam was a "Just war". It was openly a "bail out the French fuckup, and hold the line against Communist influence". The tragic part, of course, is if the US government had been willing to tell the French to piss off, they could probably have Held The Line by simply investing in Ho Chi Minh - Vietnam was communist more because that's who was handing out weapons and support than for any other reason.
Post by: Thorfinn on January 23, 2023, 04:29:00 pm
Another possibility? Maybe the Special Military Operation really was intended to be that. Similar to the various police actions declared by the West? Russia did not conduct a "Shock and Awe" operation, nor detonate several MOABs, nor even approach Obama's record of deliberate drone strikes of weddings and funerals. Why not? Other than, of course, those are acceptable when the West does them, when the West's "diplomacy" results in the deaths of a half-million kids, but not when anyone else does it.Putin isn't good enough to be compared to any of the characters in Terry Pratchett's Discworld series. Those folks have to be interesting enough to survive and thrive on the Discworld. Putin's just another Hitler/Stalin retread. I sincerely hope he's mostly forgotten in Twenty years...
I doubt the forgotten part.
Scenario 1) A minor Russian Defeat (which will leave still leave a large country named Russia in one form or another), Russians will use him as a scapegoat for all crimes... before bringing him to the rank of their saints a few decades later.
Scenario 2) Major Russian collapse, which will turn Russia in an area of a bloody civil war... Putin will be remembered as the guy who caused that.
Scenario 3) Russia will somehow win and be able to conquer Ukraine. It will cause a genocide of the Holocaust scale securing a major place in history.
Scenario 4) Russia will start a nuclear war. This will keep Putin in the history books of whatever civilization that will come out of the war.
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 23, 2023, 05:29:50 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on January 23, 2023, 07:23:15 pm
(https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/514925591372365844/1021610946420027452/unknown.png)
Post by: nenjin on January 23, 2023, 07:40:11 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on January 23, 2023, 07:48:17 pm
Another possibility? Maybe the Special Military Operation really was intended to be that. Similar to the various police actions declared by the West? Russia did not conduct a "Shock and Awe" operation, nor detonate several MOABs, nor even approach Obama's record of deliberate drone strikes of weddings and funerals. Why not? Other than, of course, those are acceptable when the West does them, when the West's "diplomacy" results in the deaths of a half-million kids, but not when anyone else does it.Putin isn't good enough to be compared to any of the characters in Terry Pratchett's Discworld series. Those folks have to be interesting enough to survive and thrive on the Discworld. Putin's just another Hitler/Stalin retread. I sincerely hope he's mostly forgotten in Twenty years...
I doubt the forgotten part.
Scenario 1) A minor Russian Defeat (which will leave still leave a large country named Russia in one form or another), Russians will use him as a scapegoat for all crimes... before bringing him to the rank of their saints a few decades later.
Scenario 2) Major Russian collapse, which will turn Russia in an area of a bloody civil war... Putin will be remembered as the guy who caused that.
Scenario 3) Russia will somehow win and be able to conquer Ukraine. It will cause a genocide of the Holocaust scale securing a major place in history.
Scenario 4) Russia will start a nuclear war. This will keep Putin in the history books of whatever civilization that will come out of the war.
It is an ideological war of genocide with the clear goal of the destruction of Ukrainian nation. Russians don't even try to hide it.
Post by: MaxTheFox on January 23, 2023, 10:08:03 pm
Post by: Thorfinn on January 23, 2023, 10:14:15 pm
Young family at church got word in 2018 that her folks got blown up in I think it was Donetsk. He went over in early 2019 to get his family out. He got blown up, too. Official Ukrainian line was like Dr. Strangelove says, "These things happen." Note to the dim -- that was before Russia moved in. It was blamed on paramilitaries. But blasting off enough arty to bankrupt a medium sized company? Yep, I'm buying it.
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 23, 2023, 10:24:45 pm
Post by: hector13 on January 23, 2023, 10:31:00 pm
Russia was pumping soldiers into Eastern Ukraine since the “ceasefire” in 2014, and have been supporting them ever since, and fast-tracking getting people there Russian passports precisely because they’ve been wanting to go back in since then, and they need merely the thinnest veneer of an excuse to do so..
Post by: MaxTheFox on January 23, 2023, 10:44:46 pm
Gotta admit, you've got the "Emotional Responses..." part of the thread down pat.🤡
Young family at church got word in 2018 that her folks got blown up in I think it was Donetsk. He went over in early 2019 to get his family out. He got blown up, too. Official Ukrainian line was like Dr. Strangelove says, "These things happen." Note to the dim -- that was before Russia moved in. It was blamed on paramilitaries. But blasting off enough arty to bankrupt a medium sized company? Yep, I'm buying it.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 24, 2023, 01:07:24 am
Ah you got there before I did… it bears repeating though.
Russia was pumping soldiers into Eastern Ukraine since the “ceasefire” in 2014, and have been supporting them ever since, and fast-tracking getting people there Russian passports precisely because they’ve been wanting to go back in since then, and they need merely the thinnest veneer of an excuse to do so..
Also, the total death count of the 2014-2022 is like 5K civilians and 15K combatants combined. With most of those being the first year. 2016-2021 had ~400 civilian death in total.
Even if one would assume that Ukraine is an evil Nazi state and people of Donbas should have been saved... the way how Russia solves it, with 50K+ dead civilians in Mariupol alone*, is way worse than anything that happened before.
Post by: Thorfinn on January 24, 2023, 10:56:01 am
Look, the Ukrainian government itself blamed the shelling on "rogue ultranationalist paramilitaries" that they could not control, not on Russia. Somehow those same "rogue ultranationalist paramilitaries" ended up using NATO and US weapons. Are you now contending that the CIA was running guns to Russia? I'd certainly entertain the possibility that the CIA is incompetent, but that bad? That even after face-to-face contact, they couldn't identify real Russians as readily as some random internet board who has never seen them?
Makes no difference though. Believe as you like. Maybe some of you familiar with the region could help me out with something that's been bugging me for the last 40 years or so. I've been trying to understand the deep-seated hatred that Galicia has of Russians. Not Russia, not the Soviet Union, not of the Tsar, but of Russian people themselves. The papers and letters I was looking at from the early 1800s and late 1700s make that ethnic hatred plain. So obviously way before the Holodomor, before the USSR, etc. It goes back at least as far as Catherine the Great. But I understood that if not loved, at least she was appreciated for displacing the Ottoman Empire from Crimea and the south of Ukraine. Is this not the case? Were the people there resentful that they were no longer ruled by Muslims? The reason it comes up is back in college, I was tracing political ideologies, one of which became neo-conservatism, and I could not understand where the animosity from primarily Jewish thinkers about the Russian ethnicity came from, particularly in comparison to the Koran, which is explicitly anti-Semitic.
Post by: Il Palazzo on January 24, 2023, 11:36:01 am
I'm not even touching the rest. (you forgot to repeat how Obama orchestrated the Maidan)
Post by: hector13 on January 24, 2023, 11:36:59 am
‘cause I’m not really sure what the relevance is to Russia’s current invasion of Ukraine of your “research” of geopolitics from hundreds of years ago.
It’s sad to see someone who appears to be so intelligent be unable to look beyond their own biases, engaging in whataboutism regarding Russias current actions, and blaming Ukraine for what amounts to a Ukrainian genocide by the Russian state.
I suppose Ukraine is engaging in missile strikes on its own civilian infrastructure to make NATO sad enough to give them more and better materiel in order to… I dunno, become a military superpower in the region? Kill more Russians? I don’t drink the Kool Aid, so I can’t think of a reasonable conclusion for such a ridiculous base.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 24, 2023, 11:37:25 am
Quote
Or are you seriously contending that the guys holed up in Mariupol were really Russians? That Russia destroyed their own in order to conceal the truth, to, um, as you say, fool the gullible? But weren't those "Russians" part of the same group who liberated Bucha after Russia pulled out? So it's Russians all the way down? Sneaky bastards, those Russians.What does it mean? Like seriously
Quote
I've been trying to understand the deep-seated hatred that Galicia has of Russians.What a deep "knowledge" of History...
I suggest starting from reading this - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galician_Russophilia - Galician Ukrainians viewed Russia as a lesser evil compared to Poles\Austrians for centuries until they actually became part of Russia
Quote
But I understood that if not loved, at least she was appreciated for displacing the Ottoman Empire from Crimea and the south of Ukraine. Is this not the case? Were the people there resentful that they were no longer ruled by Muslims?
More deep knowledge of the History of Ukraine
No Ukrainian was ever ruled by Ottoman Empire (excluding kidnapped slaves). Crimea was populated by Crimean Tatars, Turkic people. And their country was not a part of the Ottoman Empire, they were merely their vassals. And Southern Ukraine was a rather lawless frontier with some Muslim and Cossacks outposts. When these territories became conquered by Russian Empire, settlers moved in. Mostly Ukrainian settlers
What is the most important - History is fucking irrelevant when there is an ongoing genocide attempt
Post by: Il Palazzo on January 24, 2023, 11:46:32 am
No Ukrainian was ever ruled by Ottoman Empire (excluding kidnapped slaves). Crimea was populated by Crimean Tatars, Turkic people. And their country was not a part of the Ottoman Empire, they were merely their vassals.Bessariabia and the southern Crimean ports around Kaffa used to be directly under Ottoman rule. Otherwise, yeah, good drugs.
Post by: Thorfinn on January 24, 2023, 01:50:19 pm
Hector13, I wasn't thinking of Zelensky, nor did I know he is Jewish. Or that he is evidently from Galicia, or it would be a complete non sequitur. I had been reading authorized biographies of Leo Strauss, among others, and while he was not from the region, they all emphasized the influence people from there had on him. Which is what had me going through the stacks looking at journals, letters, diaries, etc.
Strongpoint, bear with me, please. What my state-controlled media said early on was that among the first into Bucha were elements of Azov and other irregulars. Before the invasion, they had linked Azovs to atrocities in Donetsk. Russia blamed the atrocities in Bucha on Azovs, which was "impossible" because the Azovs were based about 15 miles away, near Kiev. I don't know about you, but 20 miles is not that far if Russia really had already pulled out. I go over twice that distance to church every Sunday morning. In the media blackout we've had since, a lot of this has vanished. Not rebutted, just vanished. Are you saying this was all false? That, for example, they are not ultranationalists, and any implication they might have been involved in civilian attacks prior to the invasion are pure fantasy?
Wasn't it largely the Azovs that were holed up in the steel plant? That's what my state media said. Our state department said that the Azovs were an irregular paramilitary, and were responsible for the shelling between late 2014 and early 2022. That is why we could not supply them with arms. But if, as Lord Shonus maintains, the Azovs were really Russians, why would the Ukrainian government go along with it? And if they were really Russians, why would the Russians have gone to all the effort and expense to blast them out of Azovstal? Something is not adding up.
History is fucking irrelevant when there is an ongoing genocide attemptDepends on the purpose. I'm completely uninterested in how history ties in with the current spiciness. There's enough conflicting information, even on the same side, that I'll just sit this one out. What I was really interested in is understanding to what extent Galicia might have influenced the similarities between the actions/views of Bandera and neo-conservatism, as there's more than a little similarity in their fascism-lite.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 24, 2023, 02:19:49 pm
Quote
Strongpoint, bear with me, please. What my state-controlled media said early on was that among the first into Bucha were elements of Azov and other irregulars. Before the invasion, they had linked Azovs to atrocities in Donetsk. Russia blamed the atrocities in Bucha on Azovs, which was "impossible" because the Azovs were based about 15 miles away, near Kiev. I don't know about you, but 20 miles is not that far if Russia really had already pulled out. I go over twice that distance to church every Sunday morning. In the media blackout we've had since, a lot of this has vanished. Not rebutted, just vanished. Are you saying this was all false? That, for example, they are not ultranationalists, and any implication they might have been involved in civilian attacks prior to the invasion are pure fantasy?
Wasn't it largely the Azovs that were holed up in the steel plant? That's what my state media said. Our state department said that the Azovs were an irregular paramilitary, and were responsible for the shelling between late 2014 and early 2022. That is why we could not supply them with arms. But if, as Lord Shonus maintains, the Azovs were really Russians, why would the Ukrainian government go along with it? And if they were really Russians, why would the Russians have gone to all the effort and expense to blast them out of Azovstal? Something is not adding up.
It is amazing how Azov is blown out of proportion... Gives some perspective about how propaganda works. What country you are from, BTW?
Lets start slowly. Azov is one small unit in Ukrainian military. It started as a paramilitary but consequently was absorbed in the armed forces and by the 2022 it was just a military unit with an unusually high concentration of guys with (far) right political views.
Azov was nearwhere close to Bucha. Bucha is one of the many towns in which Russian armed forces killed Ukrainian civilians in masse for the crime of being Ukrainians. It is just the most famous becaus it was the first.
Mariupol is... was a rather large city with around 50% ethnic Russians, was surrounded by Russian forces and pounded by everything they had destroying hundreds of residential buildings. No one knows how many civilians were killed, estimates are tens of thousands. Azov was one of the units defending the city but it is irrelevant.
You are also very confused about ethnicity...
Quote
the Azovs were really Russians, why would the Ukrainian government go along with it
Many members of Azov are Russians. Many soldiers of Ukrainian army are Ethnic Russians. 17% of the Ukrainian population are ethnic Russians*. And why would Ukrainian government care? Because you believe in Russian fairytailes about nazism and Russians being persecuted? Well, it is an outright lie. We elected a Russian-speaking Jew as our President.
* Many of them won't self-identify as Russians ever again. One of many geopolitical "successes" of Putin
Post by: Il Palazzo on January 24, 2023, 03:04:47 pm
Azov was nearwhere close to Bucha. Bucha is one of the many towns in which Russian armed forces killed Ukrainian civilians in masse for the crime of being Ukrainians. It is just the most famous becaus it was the first.There is the Azov regiment, and then there is the Azov Kyiv TDF*, which fought near Bucha in March.
In the media blackout we've had since, a lot of this has vanished. Not rebutted, just vanished.Vanished how? Like, not on the front pages?
https://voxukraine.org/en/fake-russian-military-is-not-involved-in-the-mass-killings-of-civilians-in-bucha
* https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/mappingmilitants/profiles/azov-battalion
Post by: Thorfinn on January 24, 2023, 03:07:22 pm
It is amazing how Azov is blown out of proportion... Gives some perspective about how propaganda works. What country you are from, BTW?The US.
Lets start slowly. Azov is one small unit in Ukrainian military. It started as a paramilitary but consequently was absorbed in the armed forces and by the 2022 it was just a military unit with an unusually high concentration of guys with (far) right political views.OK, so far so good. What mainstream media said back before the invasion is that it was somewhere between 5k and 10k in troop strength.
Azov was nearwhere close to Bucha. Bucha is one of the many towns in which Russian armed forces killed Ukrainian civilians in masse for the crime of being Ukrainians. It is just the most famous becaus it was the first.And now we are to the point where there is a massive divergence. For example, in the New York Times ( https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/02/world/ukraine-russia-war#scenes-of-desperation-and-death-as-the-russians-retreat-from-suburbs-outside-kyiv (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/02/world/ukraine-russia-war#scenes-of-desperation-and-death-as-the-russians-retreat-from-suburbs-outside-kyiv) ) there are all kinds of references to the Azovs being there.
"Soldiers from the Azov battalion walked through the remnants of a Russian military convoy in the recently liberated town of Bucha on Saturday, just outside the capital after the Russians withdrew."
"Residents of the recently liberated town of Bucha reach for food being distributed by Ukrainian soldiers with the Azov battalion on Saturday."
""According to our information, they are running away from all areas around Kyiv,” said Sgt. Ihor Zaichuk, the commander of the 1st company of the 2nd Azov battalion in the Ukrainian army, which fought in Bucha."
There are 19 occurrences of the word "Azov" in the story. And it agrees with other news stories we were getting at the time. Do you see why this is such a cluster?
You are saying, then, that Sgt. Ihor Zaichuk was a figment of the imagination of the New York Times reporter in Bucha?
Mariupol is... was a rather large city with around 50% ethnic Russians, was surrounded by Russian forces and pounded by everything they had destroying hundreds of residential buildings. No one knows how many civilians were killed, estimates are tens of thousands. Azov was one of the units defending the city but it is irrelevant.According to the reports I read at the time, the Russians were deliberately targeting Azovstal, because that was where the Azovs were bunkered, up to seven stories underground, IIRC.
Anyway, in my country's media they were careful to explain that, for example, the missile that was evidently targeting the rail station in Mariupol was actually launched from Ukrainian territory, and the engine bore a serial number known to be part of the Ukrainian arsenal. That is not true, to the best of your knowledge?
Similarly, a couple months back, my media reported that Zelensky blamed a missile that landed in Poland on Russia, and it later turned out that pretty much all international observers agreed it was of Ukrainian origin. Not so?
You are also very confused about ethnicity...No, I got that. I just didn't express it very well. Mikhail (I'm probably botching the spelling), the guy who used to go to our church, was always careful to distinguish between ethnic Russians and Russians by nationality. I don't remember the word he used for it, but that was the idea.
Many members of Azov are Russians. Many soldiers of Ukrainian army are Ethnic Russians. 17% of the Ukrainian population are ethnic Russians*. And why would Ukrainian government care? Because you believe in Russian fairytailes about nazism and Russians being persecuted? Well, it is an outright lie. We elected a Russian-speaking Jew as our President.
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 24, 2023, 03:24:49 pm
Anyway, in my country's media they were careful to explain that, for example, the missile that was evidently targeting the rail station in Mariupol was actually launched from Ukrainian territory, and the engine bore a serial number known to be part of the Ukrainian arsenal. That is not true, to the best of your knowledge?
Similarly, a couple months back, my media reported that Zelensky blamed a missile that landed in Poland on Russia, and it later turned out that pretty much all international observers agreed it was of Ukrainian origin. Not so?
You're simply wrong here. There were no concrete claims about the missile that impacted in Poland early on - statements that it was fundamentally Russia's fault (which is true), but most of the "Russian Missile his Poland" was media talking heads and internet people going wild with speculation. Zelensky's first solid statement (beyond a very brief comment in a nightly address right after it happened) was "I don’t know what happened. We don’t know for sure. The world does not know. But I am sure that there was a Russian missile, I am sure that we fired from air defense systems" - every word of which is completely true. There's a reason that the AP reporter who initially spread the story no longer works for the Associated Press - it was a media fuckup.
As for the rail station attack, the only claims that it was a Ukrainin missile are prefaced with "Russia denies responsibility, claiming that...". Reporting Russia's propaganda claims is not an endorsement of them, it is newsworthy to know what statements are being made even when you absolutely know they are lying through their teeth. The missile used was a SS-21 Scarab-B (9K79 Tochka-U), which is used by both Russia and Ukraine - it was a standard weapon of the Soviet armed forces, inherited in large numbers by the post-Soviet states. Recovery of the missile's serial number was instrumental in proving that it was NOT a Ukrainian weapon.
Post by: Starver on January 24, 2023, 04:16:15 pm
Russia blamed the atrocities in Bucha on Azovs, which was "impossible" because the Azovs were based about 15 miles away, near Kiev. I don't know about you, but 20 miles is not that far if Russia really had already pulled out.There are surveillance photos taken after the invasion of the area, but before the Russians[1] actually skidaddled out of the zone, which show features that correlate well with bodies (many showing signs of torture and summary execution, not other collateral combat damage like schrapnell) that were recorded by the world's media as (or even before) the home forces re-entered the recently vacated area.
The necessary logistics to maintain the 'lie' that Russian forces were in fact the guilty ones are beyond credibility. At the very least, we can say that the Russian occupiers have had to have no qualms walking around, for weeks, amongst bodies of the local residents, and post-Bucha 'clean-ups' (mass graves, mobile crematoria) may have been in response to this - either just basic sanitary efforts or even trying to hide the atrocities from all future investigation. Evidence and testimony of torture-prisons (and worse) still is pretty clear, especially where the rapid retreats happened.
Do I think there were counter-reprisals by (say) outraged local residents upset about collaboration? Probably. But not as general policy of the military units, and it while the 'Russians' were in control I cannot see any way that hundreds of extrajudicial killings, that they did not commit, were allowed to accumulate and fester on the streets.
War is always messy, but you're spouting the wrong propaganda. Whether or not you actually belief your guff.
[1] ...or other subnational group, perhaps. I understand the main occupiers came from a unit in the Far Eastern Command.
Post by: Thorfinn on January 24, 2023, 04:24:31 pm
Recovery of the missile's serial number was instrumental in proving that it was NOT a Ukrainian weapon.Source? In the States, the reports I read at the time had intel confirmation of the flight path being from where there were Ukrainian forces and no known Russian forces, plus the serial served as corroboration. And, of course, the engine itself was on the ground right where it would be expected if launched from Ukrainian-held territory.
Occam's Razor...
[EDIT]
starver, I don't know. There have been declassified spy satellite photos where you can read license plates from orbit. Drones have crystal clear images that are used to identify faces in a crowd. If that were true, why wouldn't the US release such a photo? It's not like they've been all kissy-face with Russia. All we get is assurances that such photos exist, but never the actual photos.
After COVIDiocy and now Twitter Files, I have zero confidence in anything my government says. And I trust them more than I trust any other government.
[/EDIT]
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 24, 2023, 04:35:54 pm
If you're so certain that this is true, why don't you pull up these "confirmation sources" for evidence? Because they don't fucking exist.Recovery of the missile's serial number was instrumental in proving that it was NOT a Ukrainian weapon.Source? In the States, the reports I read at the time had intel confirmation of the flight path being from where there were Ukrainian forces and no known Russian forces, plus the serial served as corroboration. And, of course, the engine itself was on the ground right where it would be expected if launched from Ukrainian-held territory.
For a really big clue - Ukraine doesn't have any big land-attack missiles that Russia doesn't operate. The equipment provided as Western aid is far smaller, is rigorously tracked, and would have caused a major diplomatic incident if they had been used in this way.
Post by: Thorfinn on January 24, 2023, 04:52:19 pm
The reason I can't provide links is so far as I can tell, those pages no longer exist. (The NYT article I linked to above appears not to exist in their own page's search. I only found it because I could narrow down where I got the link to one of a half-dozen aggregators, and found a deep link there.) At least some of the articles that I think are pointing to those pages are 404. None of the search engines provides any help at all. Seems the smart money is on that they were eliminated under the rubric of mis/disinformation.
When Winston Smith is busy memory-holing everything, it's a little tough to tell if we've always been at war with EastAsia or not. But based on my own recollection and Twitter Files, I'm pretty sure there's been a lot of memory-holing going on.
Post by: Random_Dragon on January 24, 2023, 04:56:14 pm
Post by: Thorfinn on January 24, 2023, 04:59:48 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on January 24, 2023, 05:04:15 pm
Post by: hector13 on January 24, 2023, 05:06:06 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 24, 2023, 05:11:17 pm
The reason I can't provide links is so far as I can tell, those pages no longer exist. (The NYT article I linked to above appears not to exist in their own page's search. I only found it because I could narrow down where I got the link to one of a half-dozen aggregators, and found a deep link there.) At least some of the articles that I think are pointing to those pages are 404. None of the search engines provides any help at all. Seems the smart money is on that they were eliminated under the rubric of mis/disinformation.
When Winston Smith is busy memory-holing everything, it's a little tough to tell if we've always been at war with EastAsia or not. But based on my own recollection and Twitter Files, I'm pretty sure there's been a lot of memory-holing going on.
Are you seriously treating the Twitter Files as anything but blatant nonsense? They're nothing more than regurgitated conspiracy theories that just happen to buttress far right narratives, pushed by somebody that just happens to be replatforming extreme-right bigots and just happening to silence people disagreeing with them. It isn't actually possible to scrub all mentions of something from the Internet - even aggressive coordinated effort from almost every government on the planet has failed to do so with a lot of vile shit. You'd be able to find the claims HERE if there was any substance to them.
There's no 1984 memory-holing happening. You can't find those documents because they NEVER EXISTED, not because they've been suppressed.
Post by: Random_Dragon on January 24, 2023, 05:14:55 pm
Post by: fatcat__25 on January 24, 2023, 05:17:38 pm
To say something vaguely related to the thread, I've heard of far more morally reprehensible actions from the Russian side of the conflict, so I'm supportive of Ukraine, so that the perpetrators might see judgement. Of course, if you want to be a skeptic, you could claim that, being in a country that supports Ukraine, I wouldn't hear about things negative to that country. I would say fair enough, I haven't done that much research, but I follow some sources that I believe do their best to find facts, so I'm satisfied with that right now.
Post by: nenjin on January 24, 2023, 06:00:04 pm
Post by: hector13 on January 24, 2023, 06:52:32 pm
It is sad given the displayed intelligence, but confirmation bias affects us all, so it’s not all that surprising either.
Post by: heydude6 on January 24, 2023, 08:21:32 pm
Are you seriously treating the Twitter Files as anything but blatant nonsense? They're nothing more than regurgitated conspiracy theories that just happen to buttress far right narratives, pushed by somebody that just happens to be replatforming extreme-right bigots and just happening to silence people disagreeing with them.
The twitter files are real dude. I don't know what sensationalized version of them you were shown, but all they reveal is that: twitter has a left-wing bias, twitter had private communication channels with both political parties, twitter had private communication channels with the federal government, and that the Hunter biden laptop story was suppressed.
All of this was either public knowledge or a reasonable assumption. The twitter files just confirmed what everyone already knew.
Post by: bloop_bleep on January 24, 2023, 08:49:35 pm
Russia of course uses the missile that was fired, so at the very least they were lying right off the bat here.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61036740
More confirmation of the above.
Plus they wrote "for the children" in Russian on the missile. Seems a little unusual for a Ukrainian attack.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2023/01/21/world/kramatorsk-missile-train-station-recovery/
Center for Information Resilience says Russia is likely perpetrator. Mentions warnings from Russia that train stations in the area may be hit prior to the event. Separatists warn from doing train evacuations before.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/08/world/europe/ukraine-train-station-kramatorsk.html
Pentagon says Russian strike. Russia claimed a successful launch until it turns out there were civilian casualties, then denied it altogether.
https://t.me/kazansky2017/2407?fbclid=IwAR3CnKwlbLMVzt-rat7_4OW7MfyljyXjw-RUZlSGBEV5lQOH4mfeuHI9Qp4
Here is an example of one of these Russian boasts.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/world/europe/bucha-ukraine-bodies.amp.html
Here you can find satellite images of the Bucha massacre. Such as those Starver was talking about.
Post by: anewaname on January 24, 2023, 08:51:11 pm
- there is no "just war" that doesn't involve killing lots of civilians somewhere.
If you add some darkness to the following statement:
- Desert Storm was a good example of a "just war" that was carried out successfully
it was meant to imply that all other "just wars" were unsuccessful and did involve killing lots of citizens by the "good guys", because you cannot fight a war on land without killing civilians by accident, let alone the killing of civilians by tired, angry, and apathetic soldiers who have lost perspective, also known as war crimes.
You are right that it was well-executed and civilian casualties were exceptional minimal, but if you believe the reason for entering the war was "just", you aren't seeing the greater history of the region as it is. I'll get back to that reason after Vietnam and Colonization...
Vietnam...
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Colonization...
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
The Brits:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
the middle east
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Ukraine...
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 24, 2023, 09:12:51 pm
the middle eastSpoiler (click to show/hide)
Here's the problem with this line of reasoning. The Ottoman Empire was a sovereign state long before the British got involved. Before the British Empire even existed - the Ottomans date back to the 1300s, at a time when England was freshly unified and the other nations on the British Isles were still independent. Laying all the problems of the "Sick Man Of Europe" (which accumulated for literal centuries) at Britain's feet is fundamentally a Eurocentric "the only things that matter are things white people do" stance.
Post by: MaxTheFox on January 24, 2023, 09:54:45 pm
F you. Sideways. With a rusty chainsaw.You too buddy.
You earned a report.
Post by: Random_Dragon on January 24, 2023, 09:57:35 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on January 24, 2023, 10:05:29 pm
Post by: Devastator on January 24, 2023, 10:12:09 pm
Now it's about more than that because there's nothing more threatening to Russia than a big neighbouring country running it's own government.
All this nonsense about it being (insert bogeyman X) are ignoring the clear actions of Ukrainians themselves. They didn't like Zelynskyy. They didn't like his government. He won an election, lost popularity due to mistakes, and was going to lose the next election.
Russia saw him being unpopular and thought that would mean the country wouldn't fight off an invasion.
Turns out they didn't want to be ruled by Moscow, and that they were perfectly happy running their own politics. And that disliking the president, gasp, doesn't mean disliking the country.
But Russia thought their independence was something granted to them from outside, not something they took for themselves. And that's wrong. If it was true, the war would be over by now.
Post by: Madman198237 on January 25, 2023, 12:42:50 am
1. Cannot "read license plates"
Resolutions of a few inches across are incredible, when pointing telescopes down at the surface of the Earth, and that's what spy satellites are running. US satellites have resolutions of at least 7cm per pixel. No license plate-reading from orbit, but incredibly capable. Relevant video about how Trump revealed a huge amount about the capabilities of a US spy satellite by sharing a single photo. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRLVFn9z0Gc)
2. ARE CLASSIFIED
Like, I don't know why you'd expect the US to release images from their spy satellites which reveal said satellites' capabilities, orbital details, and whatnot. Yeah they'll admit that they can tell what's going on if it's necessary but they're not going to give you more details than that, there's no sense in helping any current or potential enemies.
Post by: Starver on January 25, 2023, 01:57:01 am
starver, I don't know. There have been declassified spy satellite photos where you can read license plates from orbit. Drones have crystal clear images that are used to identify faces in a crowd. If that were true, why wouldn't the US release such a photo? It's not like they've been all kissy-face with Russia. All we get is assurances that such photos exist, but never the actual photos.Not that I think that you're going to shift from your dogmatic (contrarian?) stance, but try this for starters, if you're still here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/60981238
And, as you say, Occam's Razor. Perhaps you should try it!
Post by: hector13 on January 25, 2023, 02:00:34 am
Post by: Starver on January 25, 2023, 02:07:28 am
Doctored by MSM stooges!Don't get on the bad side of the Manhattan School of Music, is what I say.
Post by: King Zultan on January 25, 2023, 04:51:40 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 25, 2023, 06:04:59 am
Why the distinction between "vassal state" and being a part of the empire? Is the difference important?This is a cool historical point but yeah; it basically denotes a polity which is subservient to another state in foreign relations, but otherwise is essentially independent in all other respects, having its own courts, laws, rulers, administrators e.t.c. and often their own language, coinage and army. Some vassal states were essentially obligate allies who had to contribute forces from their own army to aid their overlord, whilst others were more akin to protectorates who relied upon their overlord for protection. Or in a more feudal structure, a vassal state is being controlled by powerful local elites rather than by the sovereign themself. A good example is the arab polities who were vassals of the Roman Empire or Persian Empire, but they were ruled by local Kings and no Roman or Persian administrator ever set foot to dictate to them laws. Or an early modern example being the areas of British India that were ruled directly by the EIC/Indian Civil Service versus the areas that were ruled by local Princes.
Post by: scriver on January 25, 2023, 06:30:35 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 25, 2023, 06:46:02 am
It is an incredibly important difference to understand because it's all that prevents Sweden from ever having belonged to DenmarkMy understanding of the Kalmar Union is that whilst on paper Sweden was under a union with Denmark, in practice it was in a century long state of jihad against the crown of Denmark
Post by: Duuvian on January 25, 2023, 07:16:31 am
Are you seriously treating the Twitter Files as anything but blatant nonsense? They're nothing more than regurgitated conspiracy theories that just happen to buttress far right narratives, pushed by somebody that just happens to be replatforming extreme-right bigots and just happening to silence people disagreeing with them.
The twitter files are real dude. I don't know what sensationalized version of them you were shown, but all they reveal is that: twitter has a left-wing bias, twitter had private communication channels with both political parties, twitter had private communication channels with the federal government, and that the Hunter biden laptop story was suppressed.
All of this was either public knowledge or a reasonable assumption. The twitter files just confirmed what everyone already knew.
I think that what the Twitter files revealed was that Twitter had moderation practices, the government could make reports regarding posts, but the company itself chose whether to remove them or not. The most significant revelation imo was the utilization of accounts for foreign influence operations that were flagged as un bannable or whatnot.
As to the left-wing bias thing, that seems to me to be complete hogwash. What bias there was appeared to be shielding important twitter accounts from moderation of the sort deployed on less important accounts. For example, an account that mirrored Trump's tweets was repeatedly banned for them.
Essentially, this is one avenue of attack to get rid of Section 230. One side wants to get rid of it's facilitation of moderation by private companies (this) and the other approach is to advocate it's removal in order to sue hosts for not preventing harmful content.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 25, 2023, 09:01:59 am
I don't envy Ukrainian logistics guys... this kind of tank zoo*. I don't know how they manage.
*it will be beyond hilarious if France will also send Leclercs.
Post by: Madman198237 on January 25, 2023, 11:37:30 am
Also Leos are more common across NATO so they're better for standardization.
So long as the different tanks are completely separated into different units (the larger the homogeneous units, the better) the logistics aren't that bad. If 1st Division needs Leopard parts and 5th Division is using Soviet-era vehicles, well, you know where to send everything and you're not likely to mess it up. Providing those parts is not an issue because foreign nations are handling all that for you.
Post by: Devastator on January 25, 2023, 09:05:22 pm
As for maintenance, yeah, they'll stick together and shouldn't be too bad. Sweet that they're getting them, and impressive to watch how scared Russia is at several dozen tanks.
And Challenger IIs. Not -many-, but they'll have a fear factor, and I wonder if they're tough enough to no sell a lot of AT fire.
Post by: Madman198237 on January 26, 2023, 12:44:15 am
Yeah. I'd rather be in the tank.
Post by: King Zultan on January 26, 2023, 05:36:00 am
Yeah. I'd rather be in the tank.Being inside a tank is probably the best place to be during a war, unless it hits an anti-tank mine then it's terrible.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 26, 2023, 11:04:25 am
It does depend on what they're hit with but to my knowledge Russia does not have an equivalent to Javelin. And, uh, good flipping luck to Private Conscriptivich when he gets handed any of the RPGs, even the most modern tandem-charge versions, and told to go take out that Abrams over there. For starters, any of the Western MBTs is going to survive that round to the front. So Private Conscriptivich needs to flank that tank. And his weapon is unguided, so he needs to get close. And meanwhile, that tank's commander is running his camera systems around in circles scanning with his thermal vision systems to find any of the Privates Conscriptivich that might be sneaking up on his tank. And if good old Private Conscriptivich ever gets spotted, he automatically dies.
Yeah. I'd rather be in the tank.
Russia has no stuff of the Javelin or NLAWs level but they do have enough anti-tank missiles and produce them in 3 shifts now. Western tanks are far from immune from those.
Also, most tanks are lost to enemy tanks, artillery or loitering munitions.
I know that Russian army looks funny sometimes, but they have shitload of weapons and the situation you describe may happen only against some reserve units somewhere.
I see this trend among the Western public as if Russia is kinda done and will soon fight with shovels. It is not and it will not. They have resources for many years of war and major offensives.
Post by: jipehog on January 26, 2023, 12:59:48 pm
Sweet that they're getting them, and impressive to watch how scared Russia is at several dozen tanks.Ostensibly, but perhaps what really scares them is what these tanks represent, the increasing growth in military commitment which highlights erosion of Russian deterrence and failure of the effort to splinter western unity in the hope of turning the conflict on the back burner as they did before giving a much needed reprieve.
Though it possible that few dozen tanks would be game changer like HIMARS were (on paper few dozen HIMARS system shouldn't have changed anything in the face of overwhelming numbers of Russia's artillery, however, used asymmetricaly they have been game changing in grinding Russian effort into a stall) but if they do I have no idea how.
Post by: nenjin on January 26, 2023, 01:11:55 pm
So in using their energy resources as a deterrent, they've effectively removed the one thing that kept western nations in check. If they're not getting energy from Russia anymore, then the only deterrent is war, and nuclear war. Russia is already making war, so the only real deterrent they have left (no one is taking the threat of a Russian mobilization against the rest of Europe seriously because we know they can't sustain it) is nuclear war. Which Russia would only do if they knew defeat was assured and they wanted to piss in the eye of the world before their country is reduced to a soot stain on the earth.
Post by: Devastator on January 26, 2023, 07:10:37 pm
It does depend on what they're hit with but to my knowledge Russia does not have an equivalent to Javelin. And, uh, good flipping luck to Private Conscriptivich when he gets handed any of the RPGs, even the most modern tandem-charge versions, and told to go take out that Abrams over there. For starters, any of the Western MBTs is going to survive that round to the front. So Private Conscriptivich needs to flank that tank. And his weapon is unguided, so he needs to get close. And meanwhile, that tank's commander is running his camera systems around in circles scanning with his thermal vision systems to find any of the Privates Conscriptivich that might be sneaking up on his tank. And if good old Private Conscriptivich ever gets spotted, he automatically dies.
Yeah. I'd rather be in the tank.
Russia has no stuff of the Javelin or NLAWs level but they do have enough anti-tank missiles and produce them in 3 shifts now. Western tanks are far from immune from those.
Also, most tanks are lost to enemy tanks, artillery or loitering munitions.
I know that Russian army looks funny sometimes, but they have shitload of weapons and the situation you describe may happen only against some reserve units somewhere.
I see this trend among the Western public as if Russia is kinda done and will soon fight with shovels. It is not and it will not. They have resources for many years of war and major offensives.
I remember hearing from the start of the war that Russia would never be forced to use T-62s.
Since then they seem to have committed virtually all available SPGs, all save about fifty modern tanks, used export model tanks and ones modified for tank shows, even a few one-off unicorns built for special and experimental purposes.
No, I'm not going to pretend they're going to be down to shovels, like Imperial Japan, but they're burning through a largely irreplaceable supply of weapons produced over decades in quantities that bankrupted the Soviet Union. Every destroyed mortar launcher or SPG is virtually irreplaceable, the new-made T-80s have last-gen optics and seem to have been produced at a rate of about 40 in a year of max speed production.
Even their missile supply seems to be significantly decreased. No daily missile blitzes, they're down to doing them on a weekly basis, in some cases rotating through types of long-ranged weapons.
No, they don't have resources for many years of war and major offensives. They probably have enough to hang on for a good while, but they have nothing for offensives but lightly-equipped largely untrained infantry, and stockpiles of ammunition. The stripped border units and demilitarized central Asia say that more than anything else.
Post by: Devastator on January 26, 2023, 07:31:32 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 26, 2023, 07:56:58 pm
Russia has no stuff of the Javelin or NLAWs level but they do have enough anti-tank missiles and produce them in 3 shifts now. Western tanks are far from immune from those.
Also, most tanks are lost to enemy tanks, artillery or loitering munitions.
I know that Russian army looks funny sometimes, but they have shitload of weapons and the situation you describe may happen only against some reserve units somewhere.
I see this trend among the Western public as if Russia is kinda done and will soon fight with shovels. It is not and it will not. They have resources for many years of war and major offensives.
These new tanks won't be an instant I Win button, and there's still going to be a lot of hard fighting, but you're massively underestimating the increase in capabilities. No tank is immune to a heavy ATGM, and in theory those will take out a Abrams as easily as anything else - I say in theory because there's been very few cases of such missiles actually being fired at first-line Western tanks. Most of what has been used has been much lighter and more portable systems that don't have the warhead to punch through from any angle. What makes Javelin so good is the integrated (and very expensive) top-attack function that gets around armor - nothing Russian-made in that weight class has that capability. This negates a large portion of Russia's deployed ATGM capability.
The extremely good optics and especially night-vision optics will (as long as Ukranian crews continue their stellar tactical awareness and coordination, of course - unlike Russia they've shown themselves to be perfectly capable of providing a proper infantry screen) also make hiding the bigger missiles for an attack much more difficult. Not impossible by any means, but more difficult.
In tank-on-tank fights, the differences are heavily magnified. Late-era Soviet-derived ballistic computers and rangefinders are very good. Current gen-Western equivalents, by comparison, are very nearly black magic. Crews that have used both (both from places like Poland that are transitioning, and evaluation crews on units that have been acquired somewhere or other) have used terms like "war with cheat codes" to describe just how ludicrously fast it can be to track and service a target. The aforementioned incredible optics and thermals are an even bigger factor here, because tanks are fundamentally hot objects.
Nobody with any sense thinks that these new tanks are going to arrive and reenact 73 Easting - the only reason Iraq performed so ludicrously bad in a similar matchup is that they'd been crushed from the air. But they are a massive increase in combat power if used intelligently.
Post by: Madman198237 on January 27, 2023, 01:06:04 am
Sure the Iraqis in general just got blitzed by air support but 73 Easting specifically saw tanks (and IFVs) fight tanks (and IFVs), directly, as the deciding factors on each side of the battle. Air support wiped out the Iraqis overall but every time US tanks met their opponents their opponents died without a serious contest.
Given Russian skill and equipment being demonstrably awful, I would FULLY expect to see at least one or two 73 Easting-level slaughters here or there. The conditions are all present after all.
Post by: jipehog on January 27, 2023, 04:52:28 am
But they are a massive increase in combat power if used intelligently.Any idea how what such used might entail?
From what I gather, due to proliferation of anti-tank weapon and few painful lessons of using easily detectable larger formations, Russian is now using tanks in support roles as howitzer spread around the front.
So I suspect, that there won't ne much tank-on-tank fighting nor much opportunities for tank optics to shine, much like Russian counterparts they tanks will be mainly used as howitzer, relying on its more advanced integrated fire control and utilizing the large supply of advanced ammo to rain indirect fire to dislodge entrenched Russian positions.
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 27, 2023, 05:09:23 am
I wish to point out that at 73 Easting the Iraqis were caught unprepared, their response and coordination were nonexistent, their weapons incapable of damaging the Abrams from the front, the Abrams were capable of killing everything they fought, and even Bradleys turned out to be more than a match one-on-one for Iraqi tank crews.
Sure the Iraqis in general just got blitzed by air support but 73 Easting specifically saw tanks (and IFVs) fight tanks (and IFVs), directly, as the deciding factors on each side of the battle. Air support wiped out the Iraqis overall but every time US tanks met their opponents their opponents died without a serious contest.
Given Russian skill and equipment being demonstrably awful, I would FULLY expect to see at least one or two 73 Easting-level slaughters here or there. The conditions are all present after all.
You can't decouple the effects of spending a month being pounded by the world's five most capable air forces for a month like that. It isn't just about directly destroying units - their support structure and logistics had been blasted to hell, and the crews were worn to nubs because they'd been waiting for flying death to descend on them. The same battle, with the same forces, fought in January instead of February very well could have had a different outcome. Or at least been less of a one-sided massacre.
But they are a massive increase in combat power if used intelligently.Any idea how what such used might entail?
From what I gather, due to proliferation of anti-tank weapon and few painful lessons of using easily detectable larger formations, Russian is now using tanks in support roles as howitzer spread around the front.
So I suspect, that there won't ne much tank-on-tank fighting nor much opportunities for tank optics to shine, much like Russian counterparts they tanks will be mainly used as howitzer, relying on its more advanced integrated fire control and utilizing the large supply of advanced ammo to rain indirect fire to dislodge entrenched Russian positions.
Don't be fooled by what gets released as propaganda. It isn't necessarily a lie, but it is fundamentally incomplete because the main combat formations are maintaining operational security. There's hard evidence that Ukrainian and Russian tanks have been clashing directly since this war began. Using tanks as support howitzers is a thing (and not a makeshift one - many tank designs have the necessary sights built in even if these particular ones don't), but it is not the main thing they're doing with them. When the Leopards and Challengers get to the front, Ukraine will use them the same way tanks have been used since Soissons in 1918 - form a massive armored fist (probably more than one), aim them at a weak point of the enemy line, and try to blast through. Man-portable ATGMs have a limited ability to counter this as long as you pump enough infantry in to guard the flanks as you advance, because they're simply not mobile. Attack helicopters can contribute, but are vulnerable to anti-aircraft fire and are themselves in short supply. Fundamentally, the only real way to stop a competently performed armored thrust is to either cut it off from supply and let it wither (difficult, and leaves whatever forces you use to do it vulnerable), or to match it with an armored thrust of your own and have a big old-fashioned tank battle.
Post by: jipehog on January 27, 2023, 06:06:08 am
You have information that Russian tank are still predominantly utilized in their traditional roles? any chance for a sourceBut they are a massive increase in combat power if used intelligently.Any idea how what such used might entail?
From what I gather, due to proliferation of anti-tank weapon and few painful lessons of using easily detectable larger formations, Russian is now using tanks in support roles as howitzer spread around the front.
So I suspect, that there won't ne much tank-on-tank fighting nor much opportunities for tank optics to shine, much like Russian counterparts they tanks will be mainly used as howitzer, relying on its more advanced integrated fire control and utilizing the large supply of advanced ammo to rain indirect fire to dislodge entrenched Russian positions.
Don't be fooled by what gets released as propaganda. It isn't necessarily a lie, but it is fundamentally incomplete because the main combat formations are maintaining operational security. There's hard evidence that Ukrainian and Russian tanks have been clashing directly since this war began. Using tanks as support howitzers is a thing (and not a makeshift one - many tank designs have the necessary sights built in even if these particular ones don't), but it is not the main thing they're doing with them.
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 27, 2023, 06:17:03 am
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 27, 2023, 09:49:47 am
Meanwhile, It looks like Ukraine will get Leopard 2s in a few months and some Abramses in late 2023.I've been listening to interviews from UK tank experts about how the challenger-2 may outclass Russian tanks, but it's also a 70 ton behemoth that the Ukrainians are probably just going to use for defending Kiev and not much else... Because it's a 70 ton behemoth and getting it across bridges or keeping it maintained on campaigns will be nightmarish for them compared to a tank like the Leopard 2 or Abrams where spare parts are much more available
I don't envy Ukrainian logistics guys... this kind of tank zoo*. I don't know how they manage.
*it will be beyond hilarious if France will also send Leclercs.
Post by: jipehog on January 27, 2023, 02:32:56 pm
There's plenty of hints out there if you look at destroyed vehicles (many of the confirmed and photographed wrecks were destroyed by tank guns), interviews, and the fact that they wouldn't be saying "self-propelled howitzers are great, but we need TANKS!" if they intended to use the tanks as slightly shitty self propelled howitzers.Perhaps, or maybe they seek to tap into the huge stocks of available tanks and its 120mm ammunition. iirc there were reports of possible shortage of Howitzer (155mm) ammunition in Ukraine and limited production capacity in the west. Also right now Russia still fields way more tanks and artillery, and something is always better than nothing.
Naturally interviews will focus on political maneuvering (e.g. to pressure Germany) and standard positive PR (that not even war time propaganda that just politics as usual, we had the same fluff during covid with everyone trying to generate headlines how amazing they and their stuff are). Not sure why you believe that you interviews are more valid source of information than mine, especially when you don't even know what it is.
Post by: Devastator on January 27, 2023, 03:42:38 pm
Meanwhile, It looks like Ukraine will get Leopard 2s in a few months and some Abramses in late 2023.I've been listening to interviews from UK tank experts about how the challenger-2 may outclass Russian tanks, but it's also a 70 ton behemoth that the Ukrainians are probably just going to use for defending Kiev and not much else... Because it's a 70 ton behemoth and getting it across bridges or keeping it maintained on campaigns will be nightmarish for them compared to a tank like the Leopard 2 or Abrams where spare parts are much more available
I don't envy Ukrainian logistics guys... this kind of tank zoo*. I don't know how they manage.
*it will be beyond hilarious if France will also send Leclercs.
The Challenger 2 is a ground vehicle and there's been zero ground combat anywhere near Kyiv. It's certainly going to cause issues, but I'll bet against it being used anywhere near Kyiv when they start arriving.
Post by: Devastator on January 27, 2023, 03:45:05 pm
Naturally interviews will focus on political maneuvering (e.g. to pressure Germany) and standard positive PR (that not even war time propaganda that just politics as usual, we had the same fluff during covid with everyone trying to generate headlines how amazing they and their stuff are). Not sure why you believe that you interviews are more valid source of information than mine, especially when you don't even know what it is.
It's not really interviews here. It's photographs of equipment that took tank fire and got destroyed. This includes SPGs. Ukraine is pretty secretive about the exact location of their tank forces, but you can tell where they are by following the locations of stuff that got shot by Ukrainian tanks.
Post by: Starver on January 27, 2023, 03:45:55 pm
My viewpoint (deep within the cushions of that armchair, more flavoured by cod-psychology than military experience in any theatre of war bigger than a gaming table) is:
1) Ask for a horse, and perhaps you'll actually get the pony you actually would have been happy with,
2) Even if tanks aren't useful (or in masses enough) for direct major front-line use, their presence (or potential presence) changes the way both your and their forces can be disposed, and can definitely get other AFVs out of roles that they are less suited for than for tanks and doing what they are intended to do,
3) A political lever, whether you get them or not, as a bandwagon/guilt-trip thing, (c.f. earlier calls for air-cover, etc)
4) It makes good copy to be righteously asking for them, even better if you get them (but be wary of whenever you lose them)
5) Carefully handled, a good morale boost (directly or indirectly).
But I bet the true requirements have a lot more in-depth subtleties and less wild guessing/osmotic absorption than my own attempt. I think the tanks could(/should) be actually useful as actual tanks (modern and updated Western bells and whistles being a definite boon over their limited abilities to upgrade the inherited and buffed Soviet-era stock). Beyond that, there's certainly other useful psychology to the whole public request. The guy who is asking has a background in audience-facing situations, reading the room, and I don't think that's an insignificant aspect to it.
Time will tell how it unfolds, but that's time for you...
Post by: Random_Dragon on January 27, 2023, 03:46:08 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on January 27, 2023, 04:54:46 pm
There's plenty of hints out there if you look at destroyed vehicles (many of the confirmed and photographed wrecks were destroyed by tank guns), interviews, and the fact that they wouldn't be saying "self-propelled howitzers are great, but we need TANKS!" if they intended to use the tanks as slightly shitty self propelled howitzers.Perhaps, or maybe they seek to tap into the huge stocks of available tanks and its 120mm ammunition. iirc there were reports of possible shortage of Howitzer (155mm) ammunition in Ukraine and limited production capacity in the west.
There is an interview in which Zaluzhny outright says that Ukraine needs 300 additional tanks (+500 IFW + 500 howitzers) for a spring offensive to start. Heavily implying that without those there will be no offensive
Post by: Devastator on January 27, 2023, 05:39:19 pm
Besides, which, Poland just pledged an additional 90 tanks today, to arrive very soon.
Post by: Starver on January 27, 2023, 07:18:33 pm
(And didn't Canada promise a handful of Leopards, at some point soon after .de cleared the way. Only a small number (of a fairly small operational stock, bought for Afghanistan/etc, rather than any fears of an aggressive neighbour!) but for near immediate delivery and might well prepare the way for more of them whilst kickstarting the familiarisation process.)
Post by: jipehog on January 27, 2023, 07:49:55 pm
There's plenty of hints out there if you look at destroyed vehicles (many of the confirmed and photographed wrecks were destroyed by tank guns), interviews, and the fact that they wouldn't be saying "self-propelled howitzers are great, but we need TANKS!" if they intended to use the tanks as slightly shitty self propelled howitzers.Perhaps, or maybe they seek to tap into the huge stocks of available tanks and its 120mm ammunition. iirc there were reports of possible shortage of Howitzer (155mm) ammunition in Ukraine and limited production capacity in the west.
There is an interview in which Zaluzhny outright says that Ukraine needs 300 additional tanks (+500 IFW + 500 howitzers) for a spring offensive to start. Heavily implying that without those there will be no offensive
Politicians say a lot of things for various reasons and often with specific target audiences in mind. For example see Russian state media narratives about Nuclear Weapons and Holy War, if taken at face value one can conclude that Putin has gone mad; alternatively it can be seen as intentional calculated narratives using fear of nuclear annihilation to swaying public opinion against providing support for ukraine (in this sense Russia deterrence has eroded a lot) and for domestic purposes to unite the people by playing into local popular sentiments.
Anyway, Zaluzhny statement seem like a cleaver political move (applying pressure on Germany?) however I don't know to what extent it is true. Regardless i still suspect (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=179710.msg8450121#msg8450121) that those tanks won't be a huge game changer due their specs per se.
Post by: Devastator on January 27, 2023, 08:51:27 pm
(And didn't Canada promise a handful of Leopards, at some point soon after .de cleared the way. Only a small number (of a fairly small operational stock, bought for Afghanistan/etc, rather than any fears of an aggressive neighbour!) but for near immediate delivery and might well prepare the way for more of them whilst kickstarting the familiarisation process.)
Yup, four! Not many, but more than zero.
Politicians say a lot of things for various reasons and often with specific target audiences in mind. For example see Russian state media narratives about Nuclear Weapons and Holy War, if taken at face value one can conclude that Putin has gone mad; alternatively it can be seen as intentional calculated narratives using fear of nuclear annihilation to swaying public opinion against providing support for ukraine (in this sense Russia deterrence has eroded a lot) and for domestic purposes to unite the people by playing into local popular sentiments.
Anyway, Zaluzhny statement seem like a cleaver political move (applying pressure on Germany?) however I don't know to what extent it is true. Regardless i still suspect (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=179710.msg8450121#msg8450121) that those tanks won't be a huge game changer due their specs per se.
Nah, there's a meaningful number in there. The amounts requested would give the UA clear numerical superiority if provided, which would allow a lot more tactical and strategic options. Indeed, most of the 'we want large number Xs' so far have been asking for amounts that would give them that situation. The numbers have been going down because they've been trading very well and have shifted the odds in their favor almost continually. I suspect if the number hits zero, it would lead to another dramatic change in how they operate.
There is a cynical component to it, but the question of 'what would things look like if they got that much' has always been, 'that much will give them clear superiority on the battlefield'.
As for game changer, we don't know. We do know the new tanks have significant useful advantages over their existing stock, and that will allow for new capabilities and change the tactical situation. Nobody knows exactly how much in what way, but new capabilities always help, be it difficult to predict if they'll only help a little or a lot.
Post by: EuchreJack on January 27, 2023, 11:52:52 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: King Zultan on January 28, 2023, 04:14:35 am
Post by: Devastator on January 28, 2023, 04:26:15 am
Ukraine started out dramatically outnumbered. Dramatically.
A fair number of their tanks have gotten blown up, and a fair number still do get blown up.
They've been remarkably good at taking far more out than they've lost, and capturing a serious amount of extra tanks, too. Enough that it's a reasonable question if they've captured as many as they've lost so far.
They're still outnumbered at this point, just.. well, it's reasonable, with victory in sight.
Overall they have more tanks than they've started out with, between captures and military aid, but that brings the numbers to something approaching even. More really would help and would make the next push easier.
If you want a working example, here's two lists of visually-documented losses, one for each side. It'll give you an idea of the comparative kill rate, and just how well Ukraine has been fighting so far.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 28, 2023, 04:28:42 am
A tank is so massive and so crammed with stuff that just driving one around puts a hellacious strain on the vehicle's everything. That means wear and tear accumulates far faster than something like a car.
And you're not slamming your car at 40 miles per hour across rough country dodging incoming fire, slamming into obstacles, pushing through terrain, and generally driving like an absolute madman. That's the kind of thing tanks just straight up exist to do. Even if a tank doesn't get taken out by fire, it takes a shockingly short period of time before you have to shove it back into the maintenance shed for an overhaul.
Naturally, they're having lots of tanks getting battle damage as well, which also sends them back to the depot for repairs if it doesn't simply destroy the tank.
There's a large number actually being destroyed, but that is far from the only drain on their availability numbers.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 28, 2023, 07:44:06 am
Do the tanks get blown up so often that they keep needing new ones or are they just getting lots of them for a big push later?
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html
Here are documented Ukrainian losses. 450 tanks. You can multiply it (at leas)t by 2 to include undocumented and non-combat losses. Rounding up it is ~1000 tanks lost.
Note this doesn't mean - OMG, tanks are obsolete, they are so easily destroyed.
It is the role of the tank - to be destroyed in the most dangerous areas of the front. It was like that in WW1, in WW2, in the cold war conflicts. Anywhere except very lopsided wars
PS. Russia lost 1650 confirmed... but for them it is not as critical. They have TONS of them. And them sending T62s doesn't mean they are running out, it merely means that they had some laying around in good condition to burn away while they modernize\restore T72s from storage\reserve
Post by: Starver on January 28, 2023, 11:03:37 am
Clearly, Russia won't deplete the whole rest of its borders (NATO or non-NATO) to supply AFVs to the theatre, "in case of counter-invasion"... They say they fear NATO attack, and if I can't say for sure NATO would not if they left skeleton forces (or less) there. And I also can't guarantee the 'goodwill' of China or other opportunists. And more strategic reserves must remain 'in-country' ready to patch up those forces (or multiply the total additional deterant factor by sheer flexibility) covering whole swathes of borders with multiple hub-connected. So before they get to reassign any significant fraction of the massive total[3], l they're going to have to bite the metaphorical bullet and move onto some other phase of conflict where tanks are getting moot (or at least need their NBC protection to work well).
(Russia also needs to keep Russia/Occupied-Areas borders gunned up, in case of rapid collapse, change-of-allegience 'occupiers', any sneaky deep-penetrators, dealing with spontaneous fifth²-columns no longer sure that Russia is the answer, etc.)
Guesses as to how much they could/would field to Ukraine vary wildly. Ukraine has the 'advantage' of basically having a lot more front line, in proportion, to the total of not-currently-frontline, not-likely-frontline, frontline-only-against-allies and area coverage they need to consider maintaining response forces (for external or internal reactions) dotted around, just in case. And with the promised numbers of Generation 3, 3.5 (i.e. enhanced 3rds) and possibly 4, competing with the respective numbers across the Russian spectrum (some upgraded T-72s may be considered 3rds, but may be under the T-90 count; T-80s could be seventies 'early 3rds' from Soviet era or nineties enhanced models more realistically 3rd) seems to be one of the interesting factors. Of course, the inferior stock has already been depleted by Ukraine's initial resistance (including local-adaptation Ts that seem to be better/more available than similar late-variation Russian homegrown forks of the product line managed to be).
I think the stated numbers of required tanks (not bleeding-edge, but mostly not junk) is going to have a disproportionate advantage over the Russian stuff (fixer-uppers and hastily upgraded where so done, as a dominant trend). But this is something you need to refer to somewhere like Jane's, though, or be a good analyst your own right if you don't have one of them in your pocket, willing to whisper into your ear as well as the ears of the Agency they should probably be working for...
(Belarus adds a few hundred more, mostly '72s, if they can be pursuaded to do anything. Would be interesting to see how Russia is working towards that, but surely needs the 2023 Spring Offensive to go really well for Russia to give their ally the incentive to narrow the other grip on the vice. And, before that, support for Ukraine is going to have to tip over into either far greater or far less than now, to change the whole dynamic.)
[1] Some could be better updated, having removed those known as no longer in use due to such as having suffered indegestion from eating too much many bits of non-Russian metal...
[2] I honour the term used, but this figure may total more than they are theoretical capable of actually unmothballing/whatever, never mind those that they are actually seriously trying to bring to service.
[3] They could 'afford' to near clean out all training areas of tanks, of course. And might do the WW2 thing of driving the vehicles off the Tankograd production lines straight towards the battlezone[4], eschewing the break-in testing phase.
[4] Ok, so unless they're really running short of conscripts, they won't have their final fitters-and-welders become their first (and 'virgin') crew, thowing them into the battle just as desperately.
Post by: jipehog on January 28, 2023, 12:24:58 pm
But overall Russia has entered the war with far far superior numbers of hardware both of tank and artillery. Though we haven't seen Russia make use of large tank formation in this phase, reportedly they are spread thin through out the whole front.
The next round of fighting will be different as Ukraine success, forced Russia to retreat and significantly reduce its frontline and more favorable terrain. Also Ukraine keep getting hardware and Russia mobilization wave will soon arrive. Whether advantage by more modern tanks will be enough it is unclear, so far what won the day wasn't Ukraine equipment technical specs but exploiting weakness and superior position.
Post by: Devastator on January 28, 2023, 02:25:53 pm
Do the tanks get blown up so often that they keep needing new ones or are they just getting lots of them for a big push later?
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html
Here are documented Ukrainian losses. 450 tanks. You can multiply it (at leas)t by 2 to include undocumented and non-combat losses. Rounding up it is ~1000 tanks lost.
Note this doesn't mean - OMG, tanks are obsolete, they are so easily destroyed.
It is the role of the tank - to be destroyed in the most dangerous areas of the front. It was like that in WW1, in WW2, in the cold war conflicts. Anywhere except very lopsided wars
PS. Russia lost 1650 confirmed... but for them it is not as critical. They have TONS of them. And them sending T62s doesn't mean they are running out, it merely means that they had some laying around in good condition to burn away while they modernize\restore T72s from storage\reserve
This statement is silly. Whatever the missing amounts are, it's not half the total.. there are too many losses on the list for there to be that many missing. There are too many Russia T-80 Us (and Ukrainian Bulats) for that to be the case.
As for 'these thousands of losses doesn't matter', heh. Yeah, no. Don't know what you're selling but I'm not buying that. Just the usual lies, "Our losses don't matter, but you have to double their losses to get the real total!"
Post by: Devastator on January 28, 2023, 02:33:02 pm
Clearly, Russia won't deplete the whole rest of its borders (NATO or non-NATO) to supply AFVs to the theatre, "in case of counter-invasion"... They say they fear NATO attack, and if I can't say for sure NATO would not if they left skeleton forces (or less) there. And I also can't guarantee the 'goodwill' of China or other opportunists. And more strategic reserves must remain 'in-country' ready to patch up those forces (or multiply the total additional deterant factor by sheer flexibility) covering whole swathes of borders with multiple hub-connected. So before they get to reassign any significant fraction of the massive total[3], l they're going to have to bite the metaphorical bullet and move onto some other phase of conflict where tanks are getting moot (or at least need their NBC protection to work well).
(Russia also needs to keep Russia/Occupied-Areas borders gunned up, in case of rapid collapse, change-of-allegience 'occupiers', any sneaky deep-penetrators, dealing with spontaneous fifth²-columns no longer sure that Russia is the answer, etc.)
Do note Russia already has depleted their borders badly. They've used several of their garrison units from various "friendly" Central Asian States, such as Turkmenistan who they conquered shortly after 1991. They've stripped their NATO borders to the bone, removing something like three-quarters of all forces on the Finnish border, as an example, and have used both the unit occupying South Ossentia and the naval infantry unit that made up a good chunk of the forces in old East Prussia. All of those I've listed have suffered.
The fear of NATO invasion stuff is just lies for the masses, as the huge reductions in border garrisons wouldn't happen if that fear was real. Particularly in the parts facing Finland and the Baltic States.
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 28, 2023, 04:06:34 pm
Do the tanks get blown up so often that they keep needing new ones or are they just getting lots of them for a big push later?
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html
Here are documented Ukrainian losses. 450 tanks. You can multiply it (at leas)t by 2 to include undocumented and non-combat losses. Rounding up it is ~1000 tanks lost.
Note this doesn't mean - OMG, tanks are obsolete, they are so easily destroyed.
It is the role of the tank - to be destroyed in the most dangerous areas of the front. It was like that in WW1, in WW2, in the cold war conflicts. Anywhere except very lopsided wars
PS. Russia lost 1650 confirmed... but for them it is not as critical. They have TONS of them. And them sending T62s doesn't mean they are running out, it merely means that they had some laying around in good condition to burn away while they modernize\restore T72s from storage\reserve
This statement is silly. Whatever the missing amounts are, it's not half the total.. there are too many losses on the list for there to be that many missing. There are too many Russia T-80 Us (and Ukrainian Bulats) for that to be the case.
As for 'these thousands of losses doesn't matter', heh. Yeah, no. Don't know what you're selling but I'm not buying that. Just the usual lies, "Our losses don't matter, but you have to double their losses to get the real total!"
No, Strongpoint's being perfectly reasonable here. We're only getting the confirmed kill picture from fully secured areas (which is why you see the numbers shoot up shortly after an area is retaken) or from areas where the fighting is largely done by irregulars and militia (very little of the combat footage that's coming out is coming from the Ukrainian Army proper - they're maintaining security). Doubling the numbers on both sides for actual losses may or may not be excessive, but there's no doubt that both are far higher than reflected by those lists.
Russia also genuinely is in a better position to take casualties, from a purely material perspective. They have a lot more men and equipment theoretically (as mentioned by others, much of their "stored" equipment is nothing but stripped and rusted-out hulks at this point) available to them. So far they've wasted a lot due to incompetence, and Ukraine has done very well through foreign aid and strong competence of their own, but that does not yet change the core material calculus. That won't help them in the end if the Ukrainians continue to have a massive qualitative advantage as well as extreme success in interdiction, and they may well be at a stage where actively correcting their core problems is nigh-impossible in this war, but the numbers are there.
Post by: Devastator on January 28, 2023, 05:27:33 pm
And yes, I'm aware that Russia has more resources to take losses, but the losses have fundamentally changed how Russia conducts the war. They haven't been doing large-scale attacks, for instance, or operating maneuver units behind the line of contact. That S-D river crossing, for instance, was the last time a really large group of mechanized units was on the offense, and the extreme losses were what prevented future attempts.
There's been no more vertical envelopment attacks, like there were when the war kicked off, too.
Russian losses have fundamentally affected their ability to conduct the war, and limited their options on the battlefield. They have mattered, and they continue to matter. The material calculus has changed and will continue to change.
Post by: EuchreJack on January 28, 2023, 05:51:37 pm
Fog of war means we really don't know.
I would point out that the modern nature of the specific tanks being requested by Ukraine should make a significant difference.
T-72 vs. Abrams is HUGE.
Post by: hector13 on January 28, 2023, 05:59:03 pm
I think the US said they’d give the Abrams so Germany would consent to the Leopards.
Post by: Starver on January 28, 2023, 08:03:04 pm
I would point out that the modern nature of the specific tanks being requested by Ukraine should make a significant difference.I've been trying to go into the specifics of what models of what, from what era are involved (well, as much as I can piece together from encyclopedic sources). By age of creation, alone, the M1A2 could be from '92 (good 'Merkin stock, etc, except that it is already known to come from the export manifest; and I didn't read that as freshly manufactured on demand, but assumed indirectly from what's already been exported out there just maybe not yet been too shop-soiled yet) whilst the other the T-72B3M that's a line of the T-72 product that should be no more ancient than 2016, and supposedly quite the bee's knees amongst it's fellows. Also that's potentially hundreds of the Russian model vs 31 of the US one. Not that it'd be pitted directly. (And one total of T-72s of 'any kind' that I established, my prior "but they won't all be there" aside, is just over 2000... not seemingly including the 8k in 'storage'). So we also need the current bias in tactical brilliance to be maintained.
T-72 vs. Abrams is HUGE.
OTOH, I was already getting not a little interested about the possibilities of up to 200 PT-91s arriving from Poland (or perhaps the places Poland had already passed such models on to. And, interesting, enough, the PT-91 is a custom Pole version (1991+) of the T-72M export range. The first part of the submodal differential gap involves losing the nice composite armour, but one of the things the Poles added back (at least in some versions of the tale) in their national personalisation of the model was reactive armour so... would seem like a decent switch.
And on the balance of some of the other stats, and the inherent cultural familiarity with most of it, and that whole delivery-delay... I'm beginning to wonder if the PT-91 is a better fit than the Abrams?
Not that we can be sure what'll be the best choice to come out on top against what until we get to see what actual match-brackets are drawn for real. And now I'm closing my spreadsheet on the matter, because I just couldn't get all the details I wanted to do the actual comparisons I had intended to do with it. This is the point at which I leave this to those analyst guys who I already said are the ones that need to make such judgement calls, not me.
Post by: bloop_bleep on January 28, 2023, 08:43:08 pm
This statement is silly. Whatever the missing amounts are, it's not half the total.. there are too many losses on the list for there to be that many missing. There are too many Russia T-80 Us (and Ukrainian Bulats) for that to be the case.
As for 'these thousands of losses doesn't matter', heh. Yeah, no. Don't know what you're selling but I'm not buying that. Just the usual lies, "Our losses don't matter, but you have to double their losses to get the real total!"
Ukrainian losses is "our losses" for Strongpoint. They're saying "you should double our losses to get a more accurate picture, Russian losses don't matter as much to them at the same number."
Post by: Devastator on January 28, 2023, 10:35:36 pm
I'm not sure all the types have been nailed down for specific variants, anyway, but good try, bloop.
Post by: Madman198237 on January 28, 2023, 11:06:35 pm
I would point out that the modern nature of the specific tanks being requested by Ukraine should make a significant difference.I've been trying to go into the specifics of what models of what, from what era are involved (well, as much as I can piece together from encyclopedic sources). By age of creation, alone, the M1A2 could be from '92 (good 'Merkin stock, etc, except that it is already known to come from the export manifest; and I didn't read that as freshly manufactured on demand, but assumed indirectly from what's already been exported out there just maybe not yet been too shop-soiled yet)
T-72 vs. Abrams is HUGE.
From the US, Ukraine will be receiving new-build M1A2 variants with tungsten inserts in place of DU inserts. This is standard procedure for exports and doesn't reduce the effectiveness of the armor too much. As for what optics systems, thermals, fire-control systems, and whatnot, we're not sure. I doubt the US will be telling anyone any time soon.
The T-72B3 and other Russian vehicles are newer, perhaps, than US equivalents (unless Ukraine gets some of the SEP v3 improvements on their tanks), but you need to realize that Russia is not a first-world nation and hasn't been for thirty years, at least. Their tech is not modern standard. A T-72B3 comes with a nice ERA package, but it has that package because its base armor configuration is no longer sufficient and couldn't be sufficiently upgraded. It has better thermals than previous generations, but most T-72s of previous generations have no thermals at all, even if officially they're supposed to...and even then their thermals/night vision is a generation behind Western vehicles' equipment.
And, finally, it's quite clear that either the US was just poking Germany into releasing Leopard 2s from its own forces and, more importantly, other nations' arsenals...or is just getting Ukraine ready to use more Abrams tanks at a later date. The first is more likely, of course. In either case, 31 Abrams will not be fighting thousands of T-72s.
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 29, 2023, 12:28:09 am
Post by: anewaname on January 29, 2023, 05:06:14 am
Do you think the Ottomans wanted to increase the religious/cultural divisions between the regions they subjugated? They didn't want those regions in chaos.the middle eastSpoiler (click to show/hide)
Here's the problem with this line of reasoning. The Ottoman Empire was a sovereign state long before the British got involved. Before the British Empire even existed - the Ottomans date back to the 1300s, at a time when England was freshly unified and the other nations on the British Isles were still independent. Laying all the problems of the "Sick Man Of Europe" (which accumulated for literal centuries) at Britain's feet is fundamentally a Eurocentric "the only things that matter are things white people do" stance.
The people who did work to increase the religious/cultural divisions are the ones that never wanted the Ottomans to drive their armies into lands of the european peer group again.
Britain didn't care about the middle east region beyond their desire to keep an Ottoman-sized power from ruling, but that changed when the oil was found... They needed it and they needed others to not have it.
Britain and the US supported the overthrow of a democratically elected Iranian in 1953 because he planned to nationalize Iran's oil industry which would kick British Petroleum out of the country. This was also too big to keep out of the history books, and the US admitted to their part in 2013 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/19/cia-admits-role-1953-iranian-coup). Their dictator puppet held power for 20 years while the Iranian majority listened to the imported voice recordings of a "mighty weapon of god", the future Ayatollah Khomeini. Iran had their 1979 revolution, kicked the foreigners out of Iran, and because the Ayatollah wasn't a holy hypocrite, he deputized many people with the righteousness of god which:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
So how do the Brits respond? They talk to Iraq, another minority political power that they helped into power, and said... "that stuff happening in Iran, it will come for you next... let us help you fight them". The Iraq-Iran war was launched and when it ended, Iraq was in debt from buying weapons that they couldn't pay the loans on, and when they found they couldn't sell their oil because the Brits+friends had recentered their operations in Kuwait and competition was not wanted, Saddam invaded Kuwait...
That line from British Petroleum's founding to Desert Storm is very straight.
Ukraine
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Strongpoint on January 29, 2023, 05:47:47 am
Saying that, I am really, really, really tired of "Russia is on a verge of military collapse." No, they are not. Not even close. They are the ones who creepingly advance. They train reserves and brings new military hardware from whatever sources they can.
Post by: jipehog on January 29, 2023, 06:41:25 am
I would point out that the modern nature of the specific tanks being requested by Ukraine should make a significant difference.Difference between Homemade meal vs field rations is huge, though unlikely to sway the tied of war, and what difference it will make in the field is what I am most interested in. New western tanks might offer significant tactical advantage, it might be instrumental in enabling another counteroffensive to effect strategic change, or maybe western planners are utilizing what is left in their stores, maybe a stop gap measure to address logistical shortfalls in other areas for example.
T-72 vs. Abrams is HUGE.
As noted, the HIMARS was such a game changer not because of its technical specs per se or because few dozen HIMARS had any hope of matching Russian firepower but because combined with westerns intelligence it was able to achieve a very specific goal, neutralize Russia's principal military advantage in artillery firepower by striking at their ammunition depots (these can eat hundreds of tons of ammo a day) straining Russian logistics.
Providing longer ranger missiles for HIMARS could have a significant difference, allowing Ukraine to strike supply hubs even inside Russia, maybe in the hope of deterring Russian bombing runs against its infrastructure, though they are not getting them. What they ask for is as much about politics, the art of possible, as it is about its military utility.
Post by: Lord Shonus on January 29, 2023, 06:47:31 am
Providing longer ranger missiles for HIMARS could have a significant difference, allowing Ukraine to strike supply hubs even inside Russia, maybe in the hope of deterring Russian bombing runs against its infrastructure, though they are not getting them. What they ask for is as much about politics, the art of possible, as it is about its military utility.
They are getting longer-ranged HIMARS-compatible missiles. The Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb has significantly greater range than the standard GMLRS rockets they have been using. Though the range is not as long as ATACMS, and they lack the knockout power of that missile's warhead, they're likely to be of greater use - the primary components (rocket engines from deactivated cluster rockets and Small Diameter Bombs) are available in huge numbers, and they can be fired in the standard salvos of six instead of only one rocket.
Post by: Loud Whispers on January 29, 2023, 07:34:40 am
Do you think the Ottomans wanted to increase the religious/cultural divisions between the regions they subjugated? They didn't want those regions in chaos.The Ottoman Empire wasn't a monolithic entity, it was an Empire with its own factional politics. How the Ottoman Empire treated Christians, Slavs, Arabs, Armenians, Kurds, Greeks e.t.c. varied from Sultan to Sultan. In the case of Slavs, Armenians and Kurds, the Ottomans deliberately pit the ethnic groups against one another to pursue a policy of divide and rule. The early practice of kidnapping Christian children and raising them as Turks, followed by the blood tax again taking Christian children and raising them as Muslim Turks, followed by the early modern drive to erase Armenian and Arab identity within the Ottoman Empire all point to the darker periods of Ottoman rule where it sought to eliminate those it viewed as impure - leading to the genocide of Armenians, Assyrians and Greeks. That's also to say nothing of the enslavement of the steppe Slavs or east Africans, in which Ottoman scholars wrote extensively why these races were inferior and docile slaves, despite abundant evidence to the contrary (amusingly they do not advise attempting to enslave Georgians as they apparently always had a reputation for being well-armed and vigorously keen to defend themselves lmao). Point being, Lord Shonus is right. The Ottoman Empire was an ancient Empire that can't be boiled down to "it was this or that" because depending on the time, it might have been many things at once, and the problems that besot the ancient Empire long predate the madness of the French and British partitions
The people who did work to increase the religious/cultural divisions are the ones that never wanted the Ottomans to drive their armies into lands of the european peer group again.
Currently, the western oil companies and their backers are staying out of Ukraine, but they had to drop their half-written contracts and flee the country when Crimea was invaded. They were planning a hostile takeover of Putin's monopoly on the gas pipelines into the EU, and Putin responded. They should not be allowed to profit from those resources after the war.???
But Putin is the one who pushed to bypass the Ukrainian pipelines with Nord stream I and II?? How is it the West's fault if Putin is responding to Putin's plan to bypass Putin's pilelines in Ukraine so Putin can invade Ukraine to punish Ukraine for no longer being critical for selling Putin's gas to Putin's business partners in Berlin...?
You've got the chain of causality all busted up m8. Russia couldn't invade Ukraine when it needed Ukraine in order to sell gas to Europe. The germans helped the Russians get rid of that obstacle, so the Russians planned a hostile takeover of Ukraine to fulfil their own geopolitical objectives based off of Duginist theory that Russia needs Ukraine in order to be a superpower. You keep making the mistake of thinking Turks and Russians have no will, and only ever react to the machinations of the eternal Anglo
Post by: jipehog on January 30, 2023, 10:58:49 am
Putin believes that the collapse of the Soviet empire was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of his time, after he solidified his control within he turned on the outside, seeking to reintegrate the former soviet republics into his version of EU and NATO a Russian led economic and military alliance that would solidify its dominance. Unfortunately for Putin, post 1990 Russia had very little to offer and while these countries (which still were heavily dependent on Russia) signed cooperation with Russia they didn't allow Putin to go to second base, instead seeking better relations with Europe. Going as far as established an alternative regional economic organization GUAM to declare their neutrality, naturally Putin wouldn't have any of that, and we started to see various means of coercion, which worked pretty well for Putin until Ukraine. I believe that Ukraine, the biggest of Putin's target in his 'near aboard', was a huge miscalculation. Meant to be an example to deter any more initiates that do not align with Russia's regional goal.
Otherwise, in the modern world it is very hard to conquer and subjugate people, soft power has achieved much more by framing common grounds often going along ethnics, religious and ideological lines. Putin used the idea of Russian world and various religious and ideological to unite people behind greater idea. Similarly Erdogan tried to leverage Turkey as head of the Muslim world (hence his combative stance with Macron) and its Turkic ancestory in central Asia.
Post by: Strongpoint on January 30, 2023, 11:52:53 am
Quote
As a realist I believe that all countries act in their rational self-interest
It is not realism, people are irrational. This means that all governments are irrational to some extent. Governments led by maniacs like Putin ARE NOT rational
Also, if you think that politicians always act only in the interest of their countries... Are you interested in some bridges?
Post by: anewaname on January 30, 2023, 02:54:20 pm
I also didn't try to say all the stuff that happened around the world was the white-man's-whatever-the-meme-is. That was Lord Shonus. I'm quite capable of seeing people of any color as coercive, branding/enslaving, and genocidal murderers. People don't just do what "the white man" tells them, they look at the whatever-color guy who has a weapon in one hand and a payout in the other, and they make a choice. That method has worked on most men, poor or wealthy, throughout history.
The events that happened in Iran and Iraq, the multiple government overthrows, the UK/US involvement, etc... documented by the parties that did it. These are examples of people doing things outside of their country that would be illegal within their country. It was the start of an event chain of "assassination, retribution, and just war" activity.
I feel national pride when I see how the people who undertook Desert Storm planned and executed it.
I feel national shame for the previous series of events in Iraq and Iran that were caused by the UK/US involvement to protect British Petroleum oil assets.
part 2
The 1980's... The Cold War, the US banning sale of pipeline equipment to the USSR, the USSR construction of the brotherhood pipeline to the Hungary/Romania/Poland borders, running through the USSR's Ukraine.
The 1990's... the breakup of the USSR, the rise of the pro-capitalist Russian oilgarchs, the construction of the Yamal pipeline through Belarus to Germany's border, the use of newer tech to find more reserves in the ex-USSR's states.
The 2000's... the murders of the pro-democratic Russian oilgarchs, the nationalization of Russian oil, the construction of Nordstream. The suppression of the Ukraine and Belarus economies by their own politicians and businessmen who want to maintain the old USSR hierarchy of "Moscow first".
The 2010's... the return of the western oilgarch exploration to Ukraine to publicly prove the reserves they already knew were there. The Ukraine elections. The invasion of Crimea.
I have it in order....
The ex-USSR hierarchy didn't go away in 1991, and by 2000, it had reasserted itself and put Putin in the public eye. It had murdered off the oilgarchs that didn't submit, it kept exports centralized out of Russia to control the market to Europe, and it suppressed the economics of Belarus and Ukraine to keep them subservient to their center of power in Moscow.
Ukraine was not needed by the ex-USSR group for anything and that is why it was economically suppressed. They did not want the known reserves in Ukraine, found during the 1992 oil exploration phase after the breakup, to be piped to Europe by a Ukraine-based competitor; they had a monopoly on piped gas to Europe and wanted to keep it. That is why they invaded.
When the USSR broke up, western oilgarchs send exploration teams into Belarus/Russia/Ukraine and found deposits using newer tech. They knew about the deposits in Ukraine by 1995, but they couldn't get the political allies/strength to exploit it. The ex-USSR was regaining their control over the old USSR and the west's political allies in Russia and Ukraine were dying. Around 2010, the deposits were proved and it hit the financial market data streams.
I never said Putin wanted Ukraine for the resources, I said he wanted Ukraine to prevent a competitor to his monopoly over EU fuel imports. I went back and forth with Lord Shonus before about this same topic.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
It is easier to bring a public to your side by casting your enemies as feeble, deluded, and incompetent, than it is to bring a public to your side by treating your enemy in a way that would be illegal in your own country.
Post by: jipehog on January 30, 2023, 03:59:40 pm
QuoteAs a realist I believe that all countries act in their rational self-interest
It is not realism, people are irrational. This means that all governments are irrational to some extent. Governments led by maniacs like Putin ARE NOT rational
Also, if you think that politicians always act only in the interest of their countries... Are you interested in some bridges?
Decisions making is always limited by what we know and our frameworks to interpret it. Trying to understand what motivates different actors is vital part of international affairs, that not to say you agree with their perspective only that you improve your chance of good outcomes, which are separate and distinct from decisions. Take USA in Iraq for example, most will agree that the outcome was poor, USA failed to achieve its objective and undermined its interests, however, hindsight aside I am not sure that the initial decision was irrational.
As I outlined before (http://www.bay12forums.com/smf/index.php?topic=179710.msg8451004#msg8451004), I don't think that Putin was irrational in the lead to the war. Most actors are very rational, however, it is also politically convenient to paint the opponent as such, particularly at times of war when we tend to simplify thing into good or bad for us
Post by: Red Diamond on January 30, 2023, 04:03:52 pm
Also you have to remember that Russia *had* Ukraine and then sat by as their ally (Yanukavich) was overthrown, choosing instead to take advantage of the chaos steal Crimea and smuggle weapons over the border to support Donbass rebels. They did this because they ultimately have insane priorities, they hate the whole idea of an independant Ukraine and the Russian leader seeks the 'glory' of *fully* subjagating it, or as much of it as possible, but didn't succeed at that much.
They traded Ukraine for Crimea basically. Then they came to their senses and realised they actually needed Ukraine afterall, but it was too late at that point.
Post by: nenjin on January 30, 2023, 05:04:00 pm
Post by: jipehog on January 30, 2023, 05:25:32 pm
Russia likely has at least 10X more untapped resources of the same type as are found in Ukraine. The idea that Putin invaded Ukraine for said resources is not credible given the economic costs and risks outweigh the value of said resources.
It is not about the quantity but about maintaining monopoly both for economic and political purposes e.g. Central Asian countries are prisoners of geography, like most former soviets republics they were heavily dependent on Russia, but unable to diversify despite having a lot of natural resources because their main export line is through Russia and anytime they push initiatives to become more independent their cashflow becomes unreliable.. There is also a theory that Russia invaded Georgia because it thought to establish alternative oil and gas line from Asia to Europe bypassing Russia (and Turkey).
That said, while economic consideration can not be neglected, it would be naive to think it is the only factor or necessarily the most important factor in any situation. I agree that economy was not the main factor in Ukraine.
Post by: Devastator on January 30, 2023, 08:10:25 pm
Russia likely has at least 10X more untapped resources of the same type as are found in Ukraine. The idea that Putin invaded Ukraine for said resources is not credible given the economic costs and risks outweigh the value of said resources.
Also you have to remember that Russia *had* Ukraine and then sat by as their ally (Yanukavich) was overthrown, choosing instead to take advantage of the chaos steal Crimea and smuggle weapons over the border to support Donbass rebels. They did this because they ultimately have insane priorities, they hate the whole idea of an independant Ukraine and the Russian leader seeks the 'glory' of *fully* subjagating it, or as much of it as possible, but didn't succeed at that much.
They traded Ukraine for Crimea basically. Then they came to their senses and realised they actually needed Ukraine afterall, but it was too late at that point.
Nah, they did a serious invasion in 2014, along with actual military troops. A lot of their dead soldiers in this war are getting referred to medals they earned during the initial invasion in 2014, when dressed as 'seperatists'. Wasn't border smuggling, was a full-on invasion, including a big battle inside Donetsk city itself.
It was escalating into a full-scale war, and required several rounds of Russian reinforcements, before they decided to back down and save it for later, sticking with their initial seizures. I guess they didn't like their odds then, for whatever reason. There was no sitting by.
Post by: anewaname on January 30, 2023, 09:10:43 pm
Ukraine Country Report on Human Rights Practices for 1996 (https://1997-2001.state.gov/global/human_rights/1996_hrp_report/ukraine.html)
Within two pages, it mentions many political/business murders and the heavy presence of organized crime.
Post by: bloop_bleep on January 31, 2023, 02:33:04 am
For perspective on what Ukraine was like after the USSR broke up, this is a report released by the U.S. Department of State in 1997 on Ukraine
Ukraine Country Report on Human Rights Practices for 1996 (https://1997-2001.state.gov/global/human_rights/1996_hrp_report/ukraine.html)
Within two pages, it mentions many political/business murders and the heavy presence of organized crime.
Yes. There are reasons for the various revolutions since. A leaked tape contained President Kuchma essentially admitting to murdering a journalist causing the "Ukraine without Kuchma" movement which led to the 2004 Orange Revolution which was succeeded by 2014 Euromaidan.
Post by: jipehog on January 31, 2023, 10:57:58 am
It was escalating into a full-scale war, and required several rounds of Russian reinforcements, before they decided to back down and save it for later, sticking with their initial seizures. I guess they didn't like their odds then, for whatever reason. There was no sitting by.
True, Russia was involved from the start and eventually used its conventional military force. However, Russia had no plan to conquer Ukraine in 2014 (even in 2022 their goal was quick regime change) And they didn't back down from anything, they successfully achieved their goal securing Crimea, legitimizing their proxies/intervention and re-creating* political leverage over Ukraine, and distracting the international community with donbas and then syria effectivly turning this into yet another cold conflict they can slowly creep on at their leisure.
* The peace process was essentially a trojan horse, with goal of federalizing Ukraine giving Russia's proxies veto power on important decision, in the hope of restoring the leverage it has lost after the Crimean take over dissolved their popular support in the regions. Btw There is a theory that Russia has overreacted to the Revolution of Dignity, that if they did nothing, then the haphazard goverment of former opposition forces would have collapsed within a year and pro-Russia forces would be back in strength, but seemingly Putin was unwilling to take the chance involved and thought to secure Crimea which was a strategic goal for him one they were working on for long time.
Post by: Red Diamond on January 31, 2023, 11:08:45 am
It is not about the quantity but about maintaining monopoly both for economic and political purposes e.g. Central Asian countries are prisoners of geography, like most former soviets republics they were heavily dependent on Russia, but unable to diversify despite having a lot of natural resources because their main export line is through Russia and anytime they push initiatives to become more independent their cashflow becomes unreliable.. There is also a theory that Russia invaded Georgia because it thought to establish alternative oil and gas line from Asia to Europe bypassing Russia (and Turkey).
That said, while economic consideration can not be neglected, it would be naive to think it is the only factor or necessarily the most important factor in any situation. I agree that economy was not the main factor in Ukraine.
A monopoly only makes sense within the context of a given market. If you are the market, which Russia is, it doesn't matter if the resources are extracted in Ukraine or in Russia, while if Ukraine leaves your market (by becoming EU), your monopoly is only strengthened by the fact that a rival supplier has left.
Russia did not invade Georgia, it chose *not* to do that. The Georgians decided to reconquer South Ossetia, which is only part of Georgia in the legally fictional sense and the Russians defended South Ossetia. They acted correctly (and honourably) in coming to the defense of their ally, which is miles away from the Ukraine situation where they betrayed their ally to their enemies so they could steal from their ally.
Nah, they did a serious invasion in 2014, along with actual military troops. A lot of their dead soldiers in this war are getting referred to medals they earned during the initial invasion in 2014, when dressed as 'seperatists'. Wasn't border smuggling, was a full-on invasion, including a big battle inside Donetsk city itself.
It was escalating into a full-scale war, and required several rounds of Russian reinforcements, before they decided to back down and save it for later, sticking with their initial seizures. I guess they didn't like their odds then, for whatever reason. There was no sitting by.
Ukraine does not control Donbass at this point. The government of Ukraine has been overthrown and the Donbass has not accepted the rule of the new government. Since Ukrainian rule over the Donbass is fictional, so is any invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. Russian forces never entered any territory actually controlled by the (new) Ukrainian government, so the idea that there was a Russian invasion of Ukraine is wrong.
What the Russians did is move some mixture of weapons and volunteer troops to support the regime that rules in Donbass. That regime is *not* being invaded by Russians, it is being invaded by Ukrainians from a rebel government whose authority they never recognised. Same thing happened in Crimea, but there they managed to become Russian quicker than the Ukrainians could organise an invasion so fighting was avoided.
The presence of said volunteer troops was never a secret and still is not a secret, except in Western propoganda about 'little green men'. What is not known is the exact contribution of said troops vs weapons, but what is clear enough is that without Russian aid the Donbass regimes would have been swiftly crushed by the Ukrainian army. The Russians did not invade Donbass, they saved the Donbass from being conquered by Ukraine and not at all that successfully. Legally speaking what matters is the command structure a soldier is part of, not his birthplace so it is actually irrelavant if 100% of the Donbass fighting forces were born in Russia.
The mystery I find strange is why they did not simply ship their ally the old leader of Ukraine (Yanukavitch) into Donbass or Crimea and have him create a loyalist government there, sparking a civil war within Ukraine in which the Russians could decisively intervene on the side of their ally. The reason for this is Crimea, if they *had* done it swiftly it enough to create a civil war then it would have become impossible to annex Crimea later on because Crimea would have ended up remaining as a minion of Yanukavitch rather than Putin.
This is why I say they traded Ukraine for Crimea.
Post by: bloop_bleep on January 31, 2023, 12:56:56 pm
Post by: Starver on January 31, 2023, 01:14:29 pm
Russia did not invade Georgia, it chose *not* to do that. The Georgians decided to reconquer South Ossetia, which is only part of Georgia in the legally fictional sense and the Russians defended South Ossetia.The Soviet Union created the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast in, 1922, explicitly as a part of Soviet Georgia. (Which was a fluid but extant entity, back in the days when countries were so easily fluid, except for the time it was a member of the Transcaucasian Democratic Federative Republic/Transcaucasian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic - alongside Armenia+Azerbaijan.)
When the USSR dissolved, it was logical that post-Soviet Georgia retain Soviet Georgian territory (even more so than Ukraine retain Crimea, which in turn still had more reason to be entirely independent than the current effective-exclave of Russia in a move chosen just because of too much preference for a selective fragment of history). Ossetians decided unilaterally to gain independance, which is a tricky proposition (ask Catalonia, Eritrea, Scotland, etc, for various modern experiences related to this), and then ended up effectively a Russian outpost. Not sure that was the intention by the (true) Ossetian patriots, but maybe they prefer to be unofficial vassal and military stomping ground to the huge nation instead of a continuingly autonimous region of the very much smaller one (revoked only in response to the local rejection of being 'merely' autonimous). I don't know what the true mix of current opinion is, and I'm not sure Mother Russia is keen to publicise any incompatible nuances.
Quote
They acted correctly (and honourably) in coming to the defense of their ally, which is miles away from the Ukraine situation where they betrayed their ally to their enemies so they could steal from their ally.(...I can't parse this. The first "They" is Russia, but I'm not sure the rest of the "they"s and "their"s are also Russia. Or who else 'they' might be. Which grossly changes which alliances were kept/broken in your statement. I have a feeling what you tend towards, based on the rest, but it's such a bad summary that I'm not sure at all.)
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Ukraine does not control Donbass at this point.Russia (and/or the 'independant' nations established with support by Moscow) does not control Donbass, at this point or at any point since 2014, or indeed long before. If you insist upon this definition defining who may or may not presume to control it. The leadership of Ukraine may have changed, as leaderships do, but the continuity of Ukraine (gross Russian or Russia-'sponsored' interventions aside) has every right to consider Donetsk and Luhansk still Ukrainean[1]. Armed separatism is no substitute for a more declararitive political separation (which, as indicated above, has seen its own problems) and delegitimises the move when quite obviously sponsored by the adjacent big bully of the region.
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[...] so the idea that there was a Russian invasion of Ukraine is wrong.As I think you're wrong/mistaken in much that leads up to this, I'm not sure I can support this and the rest. At best, Russia did not 'invade' until 'invited', but given the prior Russian footfall (upon land which overwhelmingly still cannot be considered legitimately non-Ukrainean, by standards of international law and convention) then even this "friendly vampire" reasoning is dodgy.
Talks of command-structure (regardless of the blood-nation of the soldiers) are interesting, given that if you follow the separatist military structures ever-upwards, you'll most definitely find your most comprehensive organogram filled with quite a few of the little boxes in the top part firmly based in Moscow, especially the one at the very top. Possibly the 'leaderships' of D/L actually feature in the middle, but I'm sure they're absent in some branches. And possibly even most, at certain stages of the process.
But this is not an issue that can be easily simplified, without ambiguity and with universal agreement. Competing perspectives will abound. And do.
[1] Not the Rostov fragment of historically-considered Donbas, though, as that has been part of Russia (republic of, soviet republic of, etc)
Post by: jipehog on January 31, 2023, 01:52:28 pm
Interestingly, in 2014 two month before the Euromaidan protest even broke out, when Ukraine choose to pursue an association agreement with the EU, Putin's aid Glazyev warned Ukraine that it would be a huge mistake, warning about further economic sanctions and allowed for the possibility of separatist movements springing up in the Russian-speaking east and south of Ukraine. Which is exactly what spontaneously happened when the "pro-Russian" Yanukovich abdicated.
From Russian perspective, Ukraine is vital country, the largest among what it consider its sphere of influence. They have expanded a lot of effort to try to sway Ukraine to close integrate within the Russian-led Customs Union, utilizing various means of coercion, with Putin intervening personally. It is also argued that Putin was extremely unhappy about the color revolution and the message they send, that a corrupt government like his can be successfully toppled by the people. Also Crimea is of vital strategic value, and Ukraine's only leverage over Russia.
Anyway, when Putin didn't get his way, he choose to use force to get it. Same thing happened in 1990s and in 2003
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Tuzla_Island_conflict
But this is not an issue that can be easily simplified, without ambiguity and with universal agreement. Competing perspectives will abound. And do.True, though some time it is useful to simplify. I do find the map of Russian conflicts interesting, it seem that every former soviet republic within Russia sphere of influence is either cooperating with Russia or have a never ending frozen conflict within its borders giving Russia enclave to stations its "peace keeping" forces there. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-Soviet_conflicts#/media/File:Geopolitics_South_Russia2.png
They all seem to align with specific strategic goals as well, if it was the USA i'd wonder if they all struck oil ;)
Post by: Strongpoint on January 31, 2023, 04:21:54 pm
Quote
[1] Not the Rostov fragment of historically-considered Donbas, though, as that has been part of Russia
Donbas is literally Donets coal Basin. The term didn't even exist until mid 19th century. It is simply not a region with unique history or home for (sub)ethnic group.
Post by: Starver on January 31, 2023, 06:48:04 pm
Coal recognising no human boundaries (https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Donets_coal_basin_map.svg), I suppose I was conflating some original geological information that I had in my head. (Must have been an old mining-related book, which I may have last read in the '80s[1]. I had to do a lot of searching to find anything as definite as that one.) It doesn't map well with the two 'Independant Republics' or any stage of Russian military holdings, so it's an awful short-cut term. But when has that ever stopped anyone. ;)Quote[1] Not the Rostov fragment of historically-considered Donbas, though, as that has been part of Russia
Donbas is literally Donets coal Basin. The term didn't even exist until mid 19th century. It is simply not a region with unique history or home for (sub)ethnic group.
And I'd no intention to relate to ethnicities. Too much messing about with their relative dispositions by Tsars and Soviet Leaders alike... Back as far as the 19thC is about as far as I'd be tempted to go, anyway, as countries and territories only starting to have modern expectations of constancy once things started settling down (WW1, WW2, dissolution of the Soviets and all those post-USSR incidents aside) after Napoleon...
Not the point, though, probably. I was mostly responding to the claim that the 'illegitmate' Ukrainean government had no control over Donbas, so it shouldn't be fighting to (re)control it. My reply being that "The (Ukrainean) Donbas" isn't/wasn't controlled by the current incarnation of Russia/its subsidiaries. Donbas has never been fully controlled by Russia/Russia-allied forces, Donetsk has not been, Kherson and the rest have not been. Only Luhansk has been (briefly, and no longer) entirely under actual Russian control (mid-war, and by the same push and pull of war the current situation is that it is not, and probably will be a point of determination by .ue to at the very least hold that re-incursive line). So any strange argument that current and 'continually historic' posession entirely dictates what ought to be considered a valid possession is flawed. On top of the other flaws in that post.
PS., unrelated, but I just remembered that I was going to mention this, in passing... I was driving yesterday (here in the UK) and found myself behind a car with UE-maked (and appropriately tiny-flagged) number-plate! Some of your fellow countrypeople, currently settled over here. No idea of the timescale of their arrival, or intent, of course. I hope they're thriving, but also hope they get their own choice over where their future driving pleasures take them, all else being equal.
(I don't know if it's useful to mention that the driving was as good as I'd expect, if not better than most. We were temporarily crawling in the same lane before we had different onward destinations beyond the junction that was causing the crawling-queue, so I have no idea if they even shared my general respect for speed-limits. But good lane-centrality and indicator use! More than many manage!)
[1] Memorable because of the River Don, in that region. Having personally lived quite near two (and nearly a third) of the handful of River Dons that exist in the UK. Amazing what sticks in your head. ;)
Post by: Devastator on January 31, 2023, 07:01:20 pm
The mystery I find strange is why they did not simply ship their ally the old leader of Ukraine (Yanukavitch) into Donbass or Crimea and have him create a loyalist government there, sparking a civil war within Ukraine in which the Russians could decisively intervene on the side of their ally. The reason for this is Crimea, if they *had* done it swiftly it enough to create a civil war then it would have become impossible to annex Crimea later on because Crimea would have ended up remaining as a minion of Yanukavitch rather than Putin.
This is why I say they traded Ukraine for Crimea.
Nobody liked Yanukovich and he fled Ukraine on two occasions, not one. He had no credibility as any kind of leader with anyone. Russia were using him because they had nobody else, with the few chosen people from the Donbas proving too independent minded for them, prompting their assassination by Russia at a later date.
Basically he's a total coward, which appeals to Russia, but said total cowardice made it impossible for him to be credible or effective. Anyone who actually wanted to fight against Ukraine would have been able to create a powerbase outside of total Russian control, which made them unacceptable and eventually got them murdered.
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Ukraine does not control Donbass at this point. The government of Ukraine has been overthrown and the Donbass has not accepted the rule of the new government. Since Ukrainian rule over the Donbass is fictional, so is any invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. Russian forces never entered any territory actually controlled by the (new) Ukrainian government, so the idea that there was a Russian invasion of Ukraine is wrong.
Yeah, no. Russia had attacked territory well beyond the Feb 24th lines, and had suffered significant reversals on the battlefield at various occasions. They also sent thrusts well into territory they never held, including around several key cities in ways reminiscent to various thrusts in 2022. The fighting was serious and back-and-forth. This is just nonsense.
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The presence of said volunteer troops was never a secret and still is not a secret, except in Western propoganda about 'little green men'. What is not known is the exact contribution of said troops vs weapons, but what is clear enough is that without Russian aid the Donbass regimes would have been swiftly crushed by the Ukrainian army. The Russians did not invade Donbass, they saved the Donbass from being conquered by Ukraine and not at all that successfully. Legally speaking what matters is the command structure a soldier is part of, not his birthplace so it is actually irrelavant if 100% of the Donbass fighting forces were born in Russia.
There's something going on here that I've seen before. I think I'll call it the "Bad Faith Trifecta." It's a hallmark of pro-Russian advocacy around the internet.
First, you tell a lie. The lie right here is at the beginning. Russia spent eight years stating it didn't use Russian forces invading the Donbas and Crimea. Eight years of denying it constantly, in general and in specifics.
Second, you blame the victim. "It's the West's fault they believed our invasion to be an invasion! Not that our soldiers seized key areas with non-uniformed forces and launched a large conventional invasion to follow that up." Always say it happened because of something done by someone else, not the person(s) who actually made the decision to invade.
The third is to change the subject. You don't care about the legal basis of military command, and neither does Russia, but it's a much better topic to talk about rather than who did what. It also admits, quite frankly, that the invasion of 2014 was an invasion done by Russian forces.
Post by: Il Palazzo on January 31, 2023, 07:42:50 pm
Ukraine does not control Donbass at this point. The government of Ukraine has been overthrown and the Donbass has not accepted the rule of the new government. Since Ukrainian rule over the Donbass is fictional, so is any invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. Russian forces never entered any territory actually controlled by the (new) Ukrainian government, so the idea that there was a Russian invasion of Ukraine is wrong.1. Support separatism in your neighbour's territory for totally suffragist and not at all expansionist reasons
What the Russians did is move some mixture of weapons and volunteer troops to support the regime that rules in Donbass. That regime is *not* being invaded by Russians, it is being invaded by Ukrainians from a rebel government whose authority they never recognised. Same thing happened in Crimea, but there they managed to become Russian quicker than the Ukrainians could organise an invasion so fighting was avoided.
2. Unilaterally recognise the separatists - this makes it no longer your neighbour's territory through the magic of I said so
3. Send own troops to prop up the separatists BUT THEY AREN'T OUR TROOPS YOU SEE BECAUSE COMMAND IS LOCAL* (*subject to terms and conditions; comrade may not be liable for the command not actually being local)
4. Annex the separatists who were totally never your agents in the first place
5. WHY ATTACKINK COMRADE, NEIGHBOUR? COMRADE ONLY EVER DEFENDINK THROUGH CLEVER USE OF PLAUSIBLISH DENIABILITY.
It's the same old playbook. Yesterday, Georgia. Today, Ukraine. Tomorrow, Moldova. Oh, shit, wait. There's a snafu in step two.
Post by: MaxTheFox on January 31, 2023, 10:59:56 pm
Post by: anewaname on January 31, 2023, 11:11:17 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Ask yourself what strategic interest the USA had in Ukraine that would want them in the position to risk an Article 5 event in Ukraine... That is a non-rhetoric question, you have any answers?
NATO took the missiles out of Turkey to get the USSR missiles out of Cuba. And now in 2008 they want to position NATO in Ukraine... what changed? Did Ukraine gain some strategic importance? These are also non-rhetoric questions.
Back in 1981, Reagan imposed sanctions to prevent construction of the USSR's pipeline to bring gas to Europe. Reagan failed and in 2008 the EU was dependent on Russian fuels coming through multiple pipelines, and now the US wanted Ukraine in NATO... Again, the non-rhetoric, "why?".
The US wanted to break the fuel monopoly of Russia over the EU, by using western technology to access the Ukrainian reserves. It doesn't matter how much more reserves Russia has, when Ukraine has more than enough to replace Russia's output to the EU until we either overheat or we improve greenhouse emissions.
There would be three results from this... The Russian control over EU would be broken, Russia global influence would suffer from reduced profits, and some western oilgarchs would create a new class of Ukrainian oilgarchs while making themselves wealthy. That would be some portion of over $140 billion USD per year going towards Ukraine... maybe they produce half the product and sell it for only $50 billion and Russia loses $70 billion in sales. You don't think that was on George W. Bush's agenda in 2008? He and Cheney were in Halliburton, and that business group profited over Iraq in 2003. Don't ever underestimate the willingness of political groups to put their military in danger over profits... they would risk an Article 5 in Ukraine for that money and Germany would have a tough time refusing a price drop.
Post by: King Zultan on February 01, 2023, 03:28:26 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 01, 2023, 04:56:44 am
What's with the sudden influx of Pro-Russia people?Either a coincidence or the most lowkey and boring raid ever. Kinda sad that even people in the West drank that Kool-Aid.
Post by: Egan_BW on February 01, 2023, 05:02:24 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 01, 2023, 05:15:20 am
What's with the sudden influx of Pro-Russia people?
Activisation of Russian propaganda. I see it everywhere. And no, I am not implying that we have paid trolls on bay12 (far too small of a forum for this to be likely) but there are people influenced by those trolls and other Russian propaganda assets (like Fox News... and I am not sure it counts as a joke)
Russia desperately wants to freeze the conflict for some time, to secure the gains and prepare for the next war. It can't be done without making the Western public unwilling to support Ukraine
Post by: martinuzz on February 01, 2023, 06:40:26 am
Plus there's the alt-right anti-EU movements that all too happily jump on the bandwagon, as long as it makes the EU look bad. (1)
I am most saddened by the fact that it's not just low education folks either. All too often I find myself flabberghasted to hear people of decent scientific background spout horsehit that in my line of education would classify as persistent delusion, possibly case of psychosis.
(1) it's ironic. Putin accuses Ukraine and the West of being nazis. While in fact, the handful of nazis that we have, are Putin's strongest supporters.
Post by: jipehog on February 01, 2023, 07:19:28 am
In that summit conclusion, NATO stated "NATO welcomes Ukraine's and Georgia's Euro Atlantic aspirations for membership in NATO. We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO."
First one shouldn't take public statements at face value. EU welcomed Turkeys aspirations for membership 3 decades ago and it doesn't seem to be going anywhere.. There are a lot of poor east European countries that want to join EU but at this stage it doesn't seem that EU is particular interested in such enlargement (which would necessitate huge resources investment, at time when there are growing talks of disparity within the union) instead they are much more interested in countries taking the path and improving cooperation
This rather standard practice (Russia was trying todo the same with its own economic union, give and take a handful of coercion, as no one was rushing to re-joining Russian led anything) and reflects the liberal hypothesis that engagement and eventually trade/military ties facilitate interdependence which lowers the likelihood of war by increasing the cost of aggression, some people even argued that the era of major power wars is over an idea which certainly haven't aged well. It certainly helped that Germany was deeply interested in cheap resources from Russia for its booming industry, indeed up to the lead to the war Germany was firmly in the pacifist appeasement camp in a historic reversal of roles. Btw for a while Russia was even considered for membership in NATO but that didn't metalize, reportedly Russia wasn't interested in becoming an equal partner but have exclusive rights which align with its regional ambitions, and eventually Russia (much like Turkey) seeing USA become bogged down in middle east and opportunities in the east rise decided to become more assertive in promoting their interest regionally and seeking to create a multipolar world.
Also one should not forget the locals interests and aspirations as well (personally, I believe that Georgia president was a bit too assertive and brash but overall) on foreign policy aspect both Georgia and Ukraine was trying to playing both sides, on one hand appeasing Russia, the major power on their borders on which they heavily depend on the other hand trying to diversify and improve its economy.
One can see declaration about NATO yes yet another attempt to sweeten the deal or deter Russia coercion. Certainly, from NATO perspective, aspirations for membership, is not membership and doesn't risk any war, evidently Ukraine aspirations was virtually declarative and it is not until Putin aggression against Ukraine that we started to see substantial increased in commitment effetely turning Putin narrative about NATO on our doorsteps into a self fulfilling prophesy, culminating with the Putin's war which managed to give the mess the EU and the so called brained dead NATO unity of purpose.
Ask yourself what strategic interest the USA had in Ukraine that would want them in the position to risk an Article 5 event in Ukraine... That is a non-rhetoric question, you have any answers?
The US wanted to break the fuel monopoly of Russia over the EU, by using western technology to access the Ukrainian reserves. It doesn't matter how much more reserves Russia has, when Ukraine has more than enough to replace Russia's output to the EU until we either overheat or we improve greenhouse emissions.
Yes, EU was dependent on Russian energy imports, at the time oil prices reach peak and EU to publicly adopt an energy diversification goal, smart policy unfortunately they didn't pushed it hard enough.
Keep in mind, Ukraine oil reserves are insignificant, roughly a years worth for EU consumption**. Meanwhile, Turkmenistan have roughly 200 times that, and in 2007 there were talks about pipeline bypassing Russia going through Georgia into EU (https://b1619779.smushcdn.com/1619779/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/trans-caspian-pipeline.png). Russia would certainly stand to loose much, both economically from transport fees and a competitor, but also political loosing its leverage over Europe and maybe more importantly central Asia, in other places that qualify as vital national security interest. So by your reasoning, why did Putin risked escalation in this strategic region, actually starting a war with Georgia?
Your suggestion that NATO was risking a war is unlikely. As noted aspirations for membership, is not membership article 5 was not at play. Furthermore NATO was bogged down in the middle east, there was an economic down turn, and anti war sentiments were everywhere, I don't see impotent EU contemplating any wars at that stage, and interestingly Russia lunched its war in the prelude to USA elections where Obama was closing to winning over Bush expansion of troop commitments. -- Sound a bit familiar no?
** You may be referring to more recently found gas reserves, but if you like correlation similarly you might ask why did Putin choose to fight over Ukraine economic association with EU at time that those gas agreements were fleshed out. Or why Russia possession in Ukraine firmly place much if Ukraine offshore and inlinand wealth in Russian hands. Anyway, keep in mind that while energy resources are important, there are other resources EU have been heavily dependent on Russia making any conflict with Russia heavily disruptive to EU.
Post by: Ganondworf on February 01, 2023, 07:32:51 am
...
(1) it's ironic. Putin accuses Ukraine and the West of being nazis. While in fact, the handful of nazis that we have, are Putin's strongest supporters.
Similar here in Germany. The very much right-wing "AFD" party is one of Putins strongest supporters, and in the opinion of many they are only thinly veiled nazis. Lots of party members are known supporters of nazi activities. One prominent member sued for slander when he was called a fascist, and lost, because the court established that he is, in fact, a fascist. They all see Putin as their saviour.
However, there are many Putin supporters in the very left-wing "Die Linke" party as well.
And overall there is a very large correlation of Putin supporters, conspiracy theorists, practitioners of so called alternative medicine, antisemites and even the so called Reichsbürger, who follow the delusion that the German state is an illegal fiction and that the Kaiserreich still exists.
Post by: JoshuaFH on February 01, 2023, 08:13:49 am
I can't speak for the rest of "the west", but if there's anything we americans are good at it's falling for misinformation!(https://i.imgflip.com/79jrim.jpg)
Post by: Strongpoint on February 01, 2023, 11:17:08 am
Minor thing but as this is emotional responses....
Hey, Ukrainians win the war while we do nothing to help you and, in fact, benefit greatly from helping Russians to circumvent the sanctions. And after you win, please demand that Russia will give us our land back. (BTW, this is while we are torturing your citizen, Saakashvili, to death)
Some people... some people...
Post by: anewaname on February 01, 2023, 12:03:46 pm
Yeah, I was referring to the recently found reserves... found when the USSR broke up and westerners started surveying in 1992-1995. That is a core point in what I have been saying.
Ukraine's "proven" natural gas reserves are more than enough to completely replace what Russia is providing to the EU. Not just for a year, but at least for 30 years (ballparking, because consumption rates are going to change, deeper reserves might be found with newer tech, etc).
Take a look at the three regions noted in this info blurb and at the last sentence.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
There were news articles released in financial/oil data streams post-2000 when the reserves were proven, but most of those data streams are paywall, etc. But the people who knew back in 1995 have been working towards gaining control over this "new
Does that put my earlier posts in a different context?
Post by: Red Diamond on February 01, 2023, 12:51:39 pm
The new government was not a "rebel government." There was no armed uprising, except by Russian-integrationists (to call them separatists is to deny their ultimate goal) propped up by the Russian regime. Yanukovich signed an agreement (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreement_on_settlement_of_political_crisis_in_Ukraine) and then fled because his support was collapsing after he killed protestors. The parliament voted to remove the President in absentia.
In historical reality, as opposed to endless Star Wars style fiction governments are seldom overthrown in "armed uprisings". Maybe it takes the wind out of the sails of the American gun nuts to realise that actually they don't need any guns to overthrow a tyrannical government, but I don't care.
The Soviet Union created the South Ossetian Autonomous Oblast in, 1922, explicitly as a part of Soviet Georgia. (Which was a fluid but extant entity, back in the days when countries were so easily fluid, except for the time it was a member of the Transcaucasian Democratic Federative Republic/Transcaucasian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic - alongside Armenia+Azerbaijan.)
When the USSR dissolved, it was logical that post-Soviet Georgia retain Soviet Georgian territory (even more so than Ukraine retain Crimea, which in turn still had more reason to be entirely independent than the current effective-exclave of Russia in a move chosen just because of too much preference for a selective fragment of history). Ossetians decided unilaterally to gain independance, which is a tricky proposition (ask Catalonia, Eritrea, Scotland, etc, for various modern experiences related to this), and then ended up effectively a Russian outpost. Not sure that was the intention by the (true) Ossetian patriots, but maybe they prefer to be unofficial vassal and military stomping ground to the huge nation instead of a continuingly autonimous region of the very much smaller one (revoked only in response to the local rejection of being 'merely' autonimous). I don't know what the true mix of current opinion is, and I'm not sure Mother Russia is keen to publicise any incompatible nuances.
The Ossetians goals are to be reunited with the other Ossetians which means being under Russian rule.
The exact same logic you are using to support Georgian rule over Ossetia would also support Serbian rule over Kosovo.
In any case, I am talking about about facts, not the rightness of legal fictions. Georgian rule over Ossetia is a legal fiction, so there is no invasion (except perhaps a legally fictional one :))
(...I can't parse this. The first "They" is Russia, but I'm not sure the rest of the "they"s and "their"s are also Russia. Or who else 'they' might be. Which grossly changes which alliances were kept/broken in your statement. I have a feeling what you tend towards, based on the rest, but it's such a bad summary that I'm not sure at all.)
First the Donbass republics are part of Ukraine and then they aren't. Can you lot make your minds up?
Russia (and/or the 'independant' nations established with support by Moscow) does not control Donbass, at this point or at any point since 2014, or indeed long before. If you insist upon this definition defining who may or may not presume to control it. The leadership of Ukraine may have changed, as leaderships do, but the continuity of Ukraine (gross Russian or Russia-'sponsored' interventions aside) has every right to consider Donetsk and Luhansk still Ukrainean[1]. Armed separatism is no substitute for a more declararitive political separation (which, as indicated above, has seen its own problems) and delegitimises the move when quite obviously sponsored by the adjacent big bully of the region.
Invading somewhere does not automatically mean you in the wrong Starver. It is factually incorrect to say that Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 (as opposed to now) because at no point did they or even their allied forces enter territory controlled by Ukraine IN-FACT.
Facts matter, not just legal rights and wrongs. Ironically the Russian *never* actually disputed the legal fact of the Ukrainianness of the Donbass in 2014 (unlike now), only the Crimea. It is their own local allies that effectively did this and without agreement from the Russian government. The Russian plan was to have them rejoin Ukraine as part of the Minsk agreement, because the Russians at this point only wanted Crimea, not Donbass.
As I think you're wrong/mistaken in much that leads up to this, I'm not sure I can support this and the rest. At best, Russia did not 'invade' until 'invited', but given the prior Russian footfall (upon land which overwhelmingly still cannot be considered legitimately non-Ukrainean, by standards of international law and convention) then even this "friendly vampire" reasoning is dodgy.
Why can you not accept that if someone overthrows a government they do not automatically gain IN-FACT possession of every inch of territory the government they overthrew possessed? Ukraine lost possession of Donbass (and Crimea) when their government was overthrown because said places did not recognise the new government's authority. Therefore they had to invade those places but the Russians came to their aid and they were partly unsuccessful, since much of the territory of those provinces was lost. Thus there is a divergence between the legal claims of Ukraine and the factual reality.
Nobody liked Yanukovich and he fled Ukraine on two occasions, not one. He had no credibility as any kind of leader with anyone. Russia were using him because they had nobody else, with the few chosen people from the Donbas proving too independent minded for them, prompting their assassination by Russia at a later date.
Basically he's a total coward, which appeals to Russia, but said total cowardice made it impossible for him to be credible or effective. Anyone who actually wanted to fight against Ukraine would have been able to create a powerbase outside of total Russian control, which made them unacceptable and eventually got them murdered.
Insulting the character of people you don't know, tsk tsk....
Yanukovich won the democratic election so he had plenty of credibility with someone. Yet despite having won the democratic election, he was overthrown by Euromaiden backed by the EU and the USA. If you overthrow an in-fact government that makes you a rebel (more facts). So factually speaking the regime in Ukraine invading Donbass are rebels and that is why have to invade the places in the first place. Yanukavich controlled those places (Crimea as well) and they were devoted supporters *of* his rule.
The folly in my opinion is that the Russians did *not* simply invade Ukraine in 2014 in order to reinstate Yanukovich and crush Euromaiden. They would found the job far easier then, but now they invade after giving them many years to consolidate their control of Ukraine.
Yeah, no. Russia had attacked territory well beyond the Feb 24th lines, and had suffered significant reversals on the battlefield at various occasions. They also sent thrusts well into territory they never held, including around several key cities in ways reminiscent to various thrusts in 2022. The fighting was serious and back-and-forth. This is just nonsense.
Russia isn't directly involved Devastator. The war is between the new Ukrainian government and the provinces of Luhansk/Donotesk which do not accept said new government's authority over them (and never have).
There's something going on here that I've seen before. I think I'll call it the "Bad Faith Trifecta." It's a hallmark of pro-Russian advocacy around the internet.
First, you tell a lie. The lie right here is at the beginning. Russia spent eight years stating it didn't use Russian forces invading the Donbas and Crimea. Eight years of denying it constantly, in general and in specifics.
Second, you blame the victim. "It's the West's fault they believed our invasion to be an invasion! Not that our soldiers seized key areas with non-uniformed forces and launched a large conventional invasion to follow that up." Always say it happened because of something done by someone else, not the person(s) who actually made the decision to invade.
The third is to change the subject. You don't care about the legal basis of military command, and neither does Russia, but it's a much better topic to talk about rather than who did what. It also admits, quite frankly, that the invasion of 2014 was an invasion done by Russian forces.
You can call inconveniant facts lies all you wish. There was no invasion, because Russian forces (or possibly just weapons) never crossed any borders that Ukraine controlled at the time.
Russia also did not use Russian forces, other entities *used* Russian forces (to some extent or another) and weapons in order to defend themselves against the Ukrainian government whose authority over them they do not recognise (and never had). If I lend you a hammer to bash nails, it is not the person lending that hammer that bashed the nails but the person to whom the hammer is lent.
It isn't the same Ukraine it was before, because that is what happens when you have rebellions. You do not gain control automatically of all territory of a country simply because you overthrew the government of said country.
I am saddened to see it all around me here in the Netherlands as well. A lot more people than I'd like seem to be mindwashed by second hand or third hand Russian desinformation. There's a large overlap, the people who were most strongly protesting corona lockdowns and vaccinations now are in the pro-Russia camp.
Plus there's the alt-right anti-EU movements that all too happily jump on the bandwagon, as long as it makes the EU look bad. (1)
I am most saddened by the fact that it's not just low education folks either. All too often I find myself flabberghasted to hear people of decent scientific background spout horsehit that in my line of education would classify as persistent delusion, possibly case of psychosis.
(1) it's ironic. Putin accuses Ukraine and the West of being nazis. While in fact, the handful of nazis that we have, are Putin's strongest supporters.
Paranoia seems to be common among the pro-Ukrainian lot. Somehow a powerless, marginalised minority in Western countries has, in true Witchunting fashion an immense propoganda/media machine, despite the fact said machine is banned in those countries and even when it wasn't had marginal following.
I haven't read any Russian propoganda for ages because that is all censored to death. I am just clever and non-guillable enough to distinguish fact from fantasy, de-facto from de-jure. Everything Western propogandists rely on their miseducated population being unable to do.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 01, 2023, 12:58:04 pm
Quote
It is factually incorrect to say that Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 (as opposed to now) because at no point did they or even their allied forces enter territory controlled by Ukraine IN-FACT.
It is a blatant and outright lie. Some were even POWed https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28934213
(And if Crimea wasn't an invasion then... Or if Strelkov wasn't a Russian...)
Also, go there https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ilovaisk and see "units involved", before you say BUT wikipedia... There are links in that article.
Not that I think that you have any interest in truth or don't know that you are lying
Oh wait... i misunderstood... in your bizzare world it is ok to violate internationally recognized borders if you call some random folks ( under your full control) a new country or new government
Post by: jipehog on February 01, 2023, 01:32:03 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/17/three-men-found-guilty-of-murdering-298-people-in-flight-mh17-bombing
Also quick note on propaganda, one shouldn't fall into the false dichotomy of you are either pro or anti Putin, there are a lot of people who are anti-Putin however, they also believe that it isn't their fight that preferring to stay on the fence letting others handle it. And it is sometimes more convenient to dip into existing narrative because the media sound bites and social media idealistic outraged idiots do not lend well to more than that.
@anewaname, no.
Georgia Wants Russia to Leave Its Land in a Ukraine Peace Deal (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/georgia-wants-russia-to-leave-its-land-in-a-ukraine-peace-deal?srnd=premium-asia)
[..]
Regardless of how you feel about it, this is actually a very good thing, part of larger trend in the caucuses and central Asia, simply put the more pressure the better.
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 01, 2023, 03:36:12 pm
Why can you not accept that if someone overthrows a government they do not automatically gain IN-FACT possession of every inch of territory the government they overthrew possessed? Ukraine lost possession of Donbass (and Crimea) when their government was overthrown because said places did not recognise the new government's authority. Therefore they had to invade those places but the Russians came to their aid and they were partly unsuccessful, since much of the territory of those provinces was lost. Thus there is a divergence between the legal claims of Ukraine and the factual reality.
According to you every successful vote of no confidence means the new government is a rebel government and and is an invitation to invade. Do you hear yourself?
These guys who supposedly didn't "recognize the new government's authority" were Russian plants who ran in moments before to set up shop. DPR and LPR are transparent farces. They have no legitimacy from the people or anything else. They are completely full of nothing but Russian criminals. LPR's minister of culture is an actual fucking prostitute. It's a sick joke.
It is so abundantly not-a-secret that Russian government sent some cronies over the border to yak a little about some supposed new government (which just coincidentally wants to join Russia) to paint some shitty half-assed-as-always veneer of legitimacy over their expansionism and you just eat it up hook, line, and sinker.
Post by: Starver on February 01, 2023, 04:39:37 pm
The exact same logic you are using to support Georgian rule over Ossetia would also support Serbian rule over Kosovo.You have no idea what I think about all those FYRs, especially that particular hotspot. What I don't support is ethnic cleansing in any form, whether it is by direct persecution or 'merely' paperwork.
Quote
Georgian rule over Ossetia is a legal fiction,...sounds very much like a "Soverign Citizen" line of argument; notoriously misguided, and "selectively editing out" of any established regulations deemed inconvenient to the current dissatisfaction du jour.
"Legal fictions" aren't imaginary/arbitrary, they are established to clarify potentially labyrinthine legal mish-mashes of competing legislation by cutting through to the chase and saying (for example) that the current balance of understanding is that <Foo> is effectively equivalent to <Bar>, and so all dependant legal issues should consider it so without painstakingly revisiting the question (and potentially dealing with an interim judgement at odds with all those judgements that already sided with the opposite version of interim judgement). A legal fiction can be revisited, should the need arise, but often that means a replacement with an alternate legal fiction to reflect modified circumstances/understanding.
An excellent example of "legal fiction" is that of adoption. Having gone through the process of adopting a child, the legal fiction establishes that the adoptee is the child of the adopters, for all future legal purposes, and that the original parents now are no longer so (excepting where other adoption-aware legislation explicitly unpacks the various relationships as being meaningful in their original subtleties). This saves time in back-tracking the decision whenever future parentage issues, to be dealt with, are written without reason to distinguish or otherwise specifically mention adoptive statuses.
Should (for whatever reason, hopefully less common in this day and age) twins be separately adopted by separate families, this does not allow one family to then unilaterally tempt the other family's twin to run away and live with them, outwith any proper legal reassessment and rearrangement of the situation.
With countries/regions you get other complications (also easements) to the situation, plus no eventual assurance that (mortality allowing) the 'twins' will attain the age of majority. Our human twins are eventually (theoretically) able to make their own adult decisions as to what family (if any, if not all!) they each/both decide to socially accept and declare for themselves, on an ongoing basis from there on in, which is different from how territorial aspirations have all kinds of local legislatures ('adoptive family') and international courts (finding a family court, or higher, to appeal the prior decisions to) which should always be available to renegotiate through whilstsoever the (sub)national-zeitgeist is inclined to rebargain the unwanted situation. Glacial as such things are, the pop-up zeitgeist may not last long enough to see the result, but that is, if anything, even more reason to decry non-legal rearrangements of the issue.
A home invasion and 'kidnap', by one family on the other, is rarely seen as justifiable. Especially if the kidnapping family has been taking every opportunity to groom the "willingly kidnapped" child with whispers and promises and even gaslighting the lawful family's rightful intentions.
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My mind remains that (outwith a proper, albeit lengthy, process of petition to change things) Donbas republics are Ukrainean. I was (and remain) just expressing confusion over your own phrasing. Never mind, I get the gist of what your attitude is, even if I couldn't work out the convoluted meaning intended in the phrase referenced above. (And I'm no stranger to convolution!)(...I can't parse this. The first "They" is Russia, but I'm not sure the rest of the "they"s and "their"s are also Russia. Or who else 'they' might be. Which grossly changes which alliances were kept/broken in your statement. I have a feeling what you tend towards, based on the rest, but it's such a bad summary that I'm not sure at all.)
First the Donbass republics are part of Ukraine and then they aren't. Can you lot make your minds up?
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Invading somewhere does not automatically mean you in the wrong Starver.It doesn't help. See the "twin kidnap" example, above, only it's not the 'missing twin' just another folk's kid, straight... You could argue that Crimea is more "my own kid, bringing back home after an acrimonious divorce", but perhaps the best analogy is the one who went off with the other step-parent during the trial-separation (though you saw at weekends and let them keep their military bases), because everyone was (originally) happy with the continuity of school-catchment and various other reasons.
[...]
Quote
Why can you not accept that if someone overthrows a government they do not automatically gain IN-FACT possession of every inch of territory the government they overthrew possessed?It was more an overthrown leadership. The government itself had voted for closer ties to the EU, the leadership had acted against it, the protests caused the change-over (after punctuated violence, much of that due to the leadership's responses to popular protest) and government reorganisation which led to the Yatsenyuk (whose coalition drew back from EU-tying), Groysman, [...], Honcharuk governments, with elections and/or coalition-rewranglings all along the way, and thus into Zelenskyy's current era that has had to morph into a War Cabinet form but is still a government within the obvious constraints.
(And yet the overthrown Crimean autonomy, being held at gunpoint in the Supreme Council of Crimea building to support the 'referendum', does invoke the wholesale parcelling up of the applicable territory? Choose what's valid and what isn't?!)
You might as well say that Rishi Sunak doesn't rule the same UK as Winston Churchill, the number of resignations/forced-elections/national dissatisfactions that have occured in the meantime. But only because your own particular slant requires justification to ignore the (bumpy, but effectively coterminous) line of continuity are you trying to sever the recognisable succession of responsibility... Crimea being the interesting point, with the externally enforced transition for this starting practically the same day as the post-protest continuation of government at the national level (which probably helped wedge that particular door open, and lay open the most untransparent 'official' process of eventually being transferred to Russia).
And I probably should not have bothered going toe-to-toe with your 'arguments' against my bits, so I'm not going to bother at all with what I see wrong in your other bits.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 01, 2023, 08:37:26 pm
I think we should start banning Putin apologists here.
Post by: Eric Blank on February 01, 2023, 08:48:48 pm
Remember those rules apply to us too.
Post by: hector13 on February 01, 2023, 08:57:38 pm
As Starver said, it’s basically the Sovereign Citizen nonsense writ large, and consequently as ridiculous as those positions.
But yeah, banning someone for idiocy is no bueno.
Post by: Cathar on February 01, 2023, 09:04:17 pm
First the Donbass republics are part of Ukraine and then they aren't. Can you lot make your minds up?
There is no "mind to be made". There is no such thing as a Dombass republic, if we're talking about facts as you imply you want. There is a pseudo government ran by FSB agents without legitimacy nor international recognition, and a republic it does not make.
The only good thing about those bandit groups (which is a factual characterisation) is Strelkov's twitter warfare.
In general, reading your post, you seem to be confused about what makes legitimacy. Ukraine is a sovereign territory, its institutions are internationally recognized, so are its borders (which include Crimea by the way). The country is audited by its peers and recognized by the majority of the world's powers. And yes, even though the country had gone through the Orange revolution and the revolution of dignity (whose legitmacy are, again, internationally recognized).
Lugansk and Donetsk so-called republics however, have none of the sort. They are without legitimacy, and remain foreign occupied regions of Ukraine. It doesn't really matter what Russia say to its domestic population ; these are not countries, they are Russian occupied territories nothing more nothing less.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 01, 2023, 09:11:19 pm
Toady isn't going to ban someone as long as they're not actively starting fights or insulting/harassing other users, just because they are blatantly wrong in every respect.I just don't think blatant shills for a genocidal regime should just be allowed to talk here. He's not even Russian like that guy from 6 months ago, he has no excuse.
Remember those rules apply to us too.
Post by: hector13 on February 01, 2023, 10:00:31 pm
Post by: Egan_BW on February 01, 2023, 10:07:54 pm
I think we should start banning Putin apologists here.
I just don't think blatant shills for a genocidal regime should just be allowed to talk here.
Ultimately there's only one person around here with the authority to ban people, so there's really really no point in bringing it up in a public post. If you think moderation is needed, contact Toady and be done with it. If you think the rules here should be changed, discuss it with someone who can change them and not us, because Toady won't see it here.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 01, 2023, 10:10:18 pm
Post by: Egan_BW on February 01, 2023, 10:11:41 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on February 02, 2023, 02:03:06 am
Regardless of how you feel about it, this is actually a very good thing, part of larger trend in the caucuses and central Asia, simply put the more pressure the better.
I am not sure that it counts as pressure and not empty words that contradict the actions of the Georgian Government... Since their defeat in 2008, Georgians elected only corrupted populists who are borderline pro-Russian and it is SAD(c).
Post by: EuchreJack on February 02, 2023, 02:54:28 am
report and move on.Solid advice.
Personally, I would prefer a bit less crosstalk.
Unfortunately, the American Republican Party has been infiltrated by Putinist and his propaganda. In addition, American Politics are so Polarized that some American Republicans are going to hate on Ukraine solely because our Democrat President supports them. There are even some complete idiots that think if only the aid to Ukraine ended, those damn Democrats would actually stop wasting US taxpayer money, rather than the far more likely alternative that those damn Democrats would just waste the money on something far far worse.
I miss the Real Republicans that were Pro-US and Anti-Russia. They still exist, thankfully, but they're at odds with the Louder and more Popular Russian sellouts.
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 02, 2023, 03:07:33 am
Post by: EuchreJack on February 02, 2023, 03:24:44 am
There's been polling on the subject - quite good polling. Even among Republicans, support for Russa is down in the "margin of polling error" range. Support for Ukraine is lower among Republicans in polls, topping out at a mere 70% in favor of continuing and increasing aid.That is great to hear.
It's important to remember that this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4e1BndTE6Lg&list=LL&index=43) is censored by Youtube.
Post by: Quarque on February 02, 2023, 03:28:38 am
Post by: EuchreJack on February 02, 2023, 03:36:52 am
They censored Arnolds speech? That's insane.
Having re-watched it, he was critical of the January 6th insurrection, which I suspect is the real reason Youtube had to censor it.
Republi-Hards probably overwhelmed YouTube's report function until they had no choice.
Arnold's a real man, not like the simps championing today's Republicans.
All hail the Governator!
Post by: martinuzz on February 02, 2023, 03:50:13 am
Post by: Cathar on February 02, 2023, 04:00:43 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 02, 2023, 04:13:28 am
Post by: Starver on February 02, 2023, 04:59:33 am
Ukrainian government says they believe that Russia will start a new offensive february 24th, with half a million reservists.It's very much Russia's "time to do things" (many overlapping anniversaries, often because later events were themselves scheduled to be 'anniversary specials', and so making the Birthday Paradox far less surprising).
Also, they've now got to get in there before various new tanks get to the frontline, to try to change the ground (or even crush Ukraine entirely out of the game) before they get the chance to shift the balance, thanks to the rather public-facing international discussions that everyone is aware of. Though I suspect the less "tanky" support that has already been sent will already be in place, and useful for it. Hopefully the Russian commanders will feel rushed and have too much of an eye on the right hand apparently still trying to plant the rabbit in the hat, whilst the left hand has already successfully palmed the joker for a completely different magic trick...
(There's reports that Russian tactics have been getting smarter, evolving to be more clever, but pushing so many reservists in might not be conducive with smarter military thinking, except as pure distraction technique.)
Post by: King Zultan on February 02, 2023, 05:20:47 am
Post by: scriver on February 02, 2023, 05:27:49 am
...
(1) it's ironic. Putin accuses Ukraine and the West of being nazis. While in fact, the handful of nazis that we have, are Putin's strongest supporters.
Similar here in Germany. The very much right-wing "AFD" party is one of Putins strongest supporters,
Degrees in hell in the country that is the single foremost supporter of Putin in Europe, bar Serbia, maybe. Don't talk as if the AFD is a special case when your elected government has been licking Putin's hoots for a nearly a quarter century now, in spite of the rest of the EU begging you to stop because it puts the rest of Europe in danger.
Shit, I wouldn't put the Netherlands of that list either, but I'm not sure enough about if and if so how much they profited from Germany's pro-Putin gas deals.
Post by: EuchreJack on February 02, 2023, 06:00:51 am
Having those masses of forces sitting around doing nothing for too long is dangerous and expensive for Russia.Ukrainian government says they believe that Russia will start a new offensive february 24th, with half a million reservists.It's very much Russia's "time to do things" (many overlapping anniversaries, often because later events were themselves scheduled to be 'anniversary specials', and so making the Birthday Paradox far less surprising).
Also, they've now got to get in there before various new tanks get to the frontline, to try to change the ground (or even crush Ukraine entirely out of the game) before they get the chance to shift the balance, thanks to the rather public-facing international discussions that everyone is aware of. Though I suspect the less "tanky" support that has already been sent will already be in place, and useful for it. Hopefully the Russian commanders will feel rushed and have too much of an eye on the right hand apparently still trying to plant the rabbit in the hat, whilst the left hand has already successfully palmed the joker for a completely different magic trick...
(There's reports that Russian tactics have been getting smarter, evolving to be more clever, but pushing so many reservists in might not be conducive with smarter military thinking, except as pure distraction technique.)
Post by: martinuzz on February 02, 2023, 06:02:44 am
Having those masses of forces sitting around doing nothing for too long is dangerous and expensive for Russia.You are assuming they are getting paid and equipped
Post by: EuchreJack on February 02, 2023, 06:07:58 am
I may be wrongly believing they are being fed and are able-bodied.Having those masses of forces sitting around doing nothing for too long is dangerous and expensive for Russia.You are assuming they are getting paid and equipped
Post by: Ganondworf on February 02, 2023, 06:51:31 am
Degrees in hell in the country that is the single foremost supporter of Putin in Europe, bar Serbia, maybe. Don't talk as if the AFD is a special case when your elected government has been licking Putin's hoots for a nearly a quarter century now, in spite of the rest of the EU begging you to stop because it puts the rest of Europe in danger.
Shit, I wouldn't put the Netherlands of that list either, but I'm not sure enough about if and if so how much they profited from Germany's pro-Putin gas deals.
Can't really argue there. I did a short rant in this thread 10 months ago about our government doing shit about supporting Ukraine. I felt intense personal shame when our secretary of defense announced that Germany would be sending 5000 combat helmets, and blabbered on about what a substantial support that was.
The problem, as I see it, is that Putin did a very good job of preparing the social battlefield over the last 20 years. So much money went into undermining democratic structures. For example, everyday you can watch Russian trolls working the forums of major news outlets or newsmagazines, it's disgusting. There is much opposition against those trolls, but the amount of people spouting bullcrap or just believing them is staggering. Together with the economical ties Germany had (and still has!) to Russia and the traditional wait-and-see policies of the governments, it makes for a very sad affair indeed.
Edit: Add to that several layers of deep seated systemic corruption, complacent and inefficient bureaucracy bordering again on corruption, ... It's a mess, and I start to rant again. Will stop here, sorry
Post by: jipehog on February 02, 2023, 07:51:38 am
Ukrainian government says they believe that Russia will start a new offensive february 24th, with half a million reservists.It's very much Russia's "time to do things" (many overlapping anniversaries, often because later events were themselves scheduled to be 'anniversary specials', and so making the Birthday Paradox far less surprising).
Also, they've now got to get in there before various new tanks get to the frontline, to try to change the ground (or even crush Ukraine entirely out of the game) before they get the chance to shift the balance, thanks to the rather public-facing international discussions that everyone is aware of. Though I suspect the less "tanky" support that has already been sent will already be in place, and useful for it. Hopefully the Russian commanders will feel rushed and have too much of an eye on the right hand apparently still trying to plant the rabbit in the hat, whilst the left hand has already successfully palmed the joker for a completely different magic trick...
(There's reports that Russian tactics have been getting smarter, evolving to be more clever, but pushing so many reservists in might not be conducive with smarter military thinking, except as pure distraction technique.)
I assume you mean strategy, referring to the host of essentially political decisions that made little military sense when Russia still believed that they can snatches victory from the jaws of
I doubt that anyone think that brigade worth of tanks can shift the score in the face of a half million army, such an army would certainly make pulling out rabbits like in Kharkiv neigh impossible. Speaking of numbers, is there a site counting the training potential of Ukraine?
Can't really argue there. I did a short rant in this thread 10 months ago about our government doing shit about supporting Ukraine. I felt intense personal shame when our secretary of defense announced that Germany would be sending 5000 combat helmets, and blabbered on about what a substantial support that was.
Germany doesn't border Russia though. As major power Russia have a lot sway and a long memory, and until its defeat is assured one should measure the risk of direct involvement vs the possibility of painful consequences. Keep in mind that in 2015 most argued that Russian campaign in Syria was doomed to fail and a yet a decade later they won.
That said, there are myriad of ways to lend support unofficially, indeed there many that do so under the radar
Post by: Starver on February 02, 2023, 08:18:34 am
(There's reports that Russian tactics have been getting smarter, evolving to be more clever, but pushing so many reservists in might not be conducive with smarter military thinking, except as pure distraction technique.)
I assume you mean strategy, referring to the host of essentially political decisions that made little military sense when Russia still believed that they can snatches victory from the jaws ofdefeatfaint/repositioning/whatever, which put them at huge disadvantage.
Well, I was mostly talking tactics, as the most obvious visible difference (between zerg-rushing and actually doing something sensible and not self-defeating in an offensive action) in the way they are seen to be (re)acting. But you're right that it may represent actual shift in strategy (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64455123) at the practical level.
What overarching strategy changes have been made at higher levels (since the abandonment of the failed "decaptation" move in their "attack everywhere with troops who didn't even know there's a plan to invade" phase) I don't think I'm qualified to even guess at.
There's signs of getting smarter, though. I, for one, hope the smartness is diluted, one way or another. Unreasonable expectations from above or low average battle-smarts from below. It'd be nice if it was a morale failure, not just cannon-foddering, but that's just my preference as to how it falls apart.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 02, 2023, 08:24:37 am
Degrees in hell in the country that is the single foremost supporter of Putin in Europe, bar Serbia, maybe.Why doesn't scriver-sempai notice Orban-kun?
Post by: scriver on February 02, 2023, 09:05:18 am
But yeah, confession, it probably wasn't Orban back then so I shouldn't conflate governments and countries so much. So let's put them behind Orbangry too, that's a fair point.
Post by: Red Diamond on February 02, 2023, 12:52:04 pm
It is a blatant and outright lie. Some were even POWed https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28934213
(And if Crimea wasn't an invasion then... Or if Strelkov wasn't a Russian...)
Also, go there https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ilovaisk and see "units involved", before you say BUT wikipedia... There are links in that article.
Not that I think that you have any interest in truth or don't know that you are lying
Oh wait... i misunderstood... in your bizzare world it is ok to violate internationally recognized borders if you call some random folks ( under your full control) a new country or new government
Everyone knows that there were Russians involved in fighting in Donbass, nobody denied it and the whole idea that there was any sort of denial is itself a lie invented in order to support the Western conspiracy theory of 'little green men'. This is itself a form of Anti-Knowledge designed to plaster over the shattered state of Ukraine at the time, there is was no need for Russia to invade since there are numerous splinter states begging for Russian aid to not be reconquered by Ukraine. The stupidity of Russia is that they chose to steal Crimea rather than group the three splinter states into an Anti-Ukraine, to create a civil war in which they could intervene with full force to crush the new Ukraine and bring back the old.
An important distinction here is whether they were forces that were merely Russian or whether they were forces that are operated as part of the Russian army. It is quite normal for states to employ foreign nationals in their armies, as volunteers/merceneries. In fact not only is it the case, but it is very much the norm in many historical eras.
The majority of the sailors aboard the Spanish Armada were if I recall correctly Italian. We don't call it the Italian Armada as a result.
According to you every successful vote of no confidence means the new government is a rebel government and and is an invitation to invade. Do you hear yourself?
These guys who supposedly didn't "recognize the new government's authority" were Russian plants who ran in moments before to set up shop. DPR and LPR are transparent farces. They have no legitimacy from the people or anything else. They are completely full of nothing but Russian criminals. LPR's minister of culture is an actual fucking prostitute. It's a sick joke.
It is so abundantly not-a-secret that Russian government sent some cronies over the border to yak a little about some supposed new government (which just coincidentally wants to join Russia) to paint some shitty half-assed-as-always veneer of legitimacy over their expansionism and you just eat it up hook, line, and sinker.
A vote of no-confidence is not a rebellion. It is a legal process to remove a leader from office, a rebellion is an illegal overthrow of a government, the key element here is LAW. You can spout conspiracy theories about little green men sneaking into Ukraine and forcing the local Ukrainians to set up sham governments all you wish, they remain unproven claims and there is no point in debating with people guillable enough to simply state unproven claims as certain, unquestionable fact.
QuoteGeorgian rule over Ossetia is a legal fiction,...sounds very much like a "Soverign Citizen" line of argument; notoriously misguided, and "selectively editing out" of any established regulations deemed inconvenient to the current dissatisfaction du jour.
No Georgia does not control South Ossetia, there is nothing ambigious about the situation. It is Georgia that claims, in true Sovereign Citizen fashion to rule over South Ossetia, in spite of the fact it does no such thing. Since Russia (mostly) did not invade factual Georgia but instead stayed largely within South Ossetia territory, which factually speaking is not Georgian, so it is more correct to say that Russia chose not to invade Georgia despite being at war than that they chose to invade.
"Legal fictions" aren't imaginary/arbitrary, they are established to clarify potentially labyrinthine legal mish-mashes of competing legislation by cutting through to the chase and saying (for example) that the current balance of understanding is that <Foo> is effectively equivalent to <Bar>, and so all dependant legal issues should consider it so without painstakingly revisiting the question (and potentially dealing with an interim judgement at odds with all those judgements that already sided with the opposite version of interim judgement). A legal fiction can be revisited, should the need arise, but often that means a replacement with an alternate legal fiction to reflect modified circumstances/understanding.
Yes legal fictions are neccesery, but they are not the same thing as facts. They are also the greatest enemy of peace ever invented (more about this later).
A legal fiction is when the reality of a situation diverges from what is normally understood by the phrase. South Ossetia is part of Georgia in the legally fictional sense, in that while we may hold that it is Georgian, nothing normally understood by the term 'Part of Georgia' applies. The splinter provinces in the Donbass and Crimea had a similar relationship to Ukraine and Kosovo has a similar relationship to Serbia.
An excellent example of "legal fiction" is that of adoption. Having gone through the process of adopting a child, the legal fiction establishes that the adoptee is the child of the adopters, for all future legal purposes, and that the original parents now are no longer so (excepting where other adoption-aware legislation explicitly unpacks the various relationships as being meaningful in their original subtleties). This saves time in back-tracking the decision whenever future parentage issues, to be dealt with, are written without reason to distinguish or otherwise specifically mention adoptive statuses.
Should (for whatever reason, hopefully less common in this day and age) twins be separately adopted by separate families, this does not allow one family to then unilaterally tempt the other family's twin to run away and live with them, outwith any proper legal reassessment and rearrangement of the situation.
With countries/regions you get other complications (also easements) to the situation, plus no eventual assurance that (mortality allowing) the 'twins' will attain the age of majority. Our human twins are eventually (theoretically) able to make their own adult decisions as to what family (if any, if not all!) they each/both decide to socially accept and declare for themselves, on an ongoing basis from there on in, which is different from how territorial aspirations have all kinds of local legislatures ('adoptive family') and international courts (finding a family court, or higher, to appeal the prior decisions to) which should always be available to renegotiate through whilstsoever the (sub)national-zeitgeist is inclined to rebargain the unwanted situation. Glacial as such things are, the pop-up zeitgeist may not last long enough to see the result, but that is, if anything, even more reason to decry non-legal rearrangements of the issue.
No, the exact opposite is the case; legally fictional adoptions are pretty rare. Neglected/abandoned biological children however are an excellent example of a legal fiction. Legally speaking they are the children of so-and-so, but in fact their relationship in no way resembles what is normally understood by the term 'my child'.
A home invasion and 'kidnap', by one family on the other, is rarely seen as justifiable. Especially if the kidnapping family has been taking every opportunity to groom the "willingly kidnapped" child with whispers and promises and even gaslighting the lawful family's rightful intentions.
In the case of a country, it is considered quite justified to invade regions of your legal country over whom your authority is legally fictional in order to render your authority actual.
In fact it is the whole POV of Ukraine, that the Donbass and Crimea can be conquered by Ukraine and forced to live the factual reality of 'Ukrainianness' (including speaking the right language). If countries cannot use force to make legal fictions reality, then the whole Ukrainian case falls apart utterly.
It was more an overthrown leadership. The government itself had voted for closer ties to the EU, the leadership had acted against it, the protests caused the change-over (after punctuated violence, much of that due to the leadership's responses to popular protest) and government reorganisation which led to the Yatsenyuk (whose coalition drew back from EU-tying), Groysman, [...], Honcharuk governments, with elections and/or coalition-rewranglings all along the way, and thus into Zelenskyy's current era that has had to morph into a War Cabinet form but is still a government within the obvious constraints.
(And yet the overthrown Crimean autonomy, being held at gunpoint in the Supreme Council of Crimea building to support the 'referendum', does invoke the wholesale parcelling up of the applicable territory? Choose what's valid and what isn't?!)
None of us know the exact details let's go with the consequences here. The consequences are *not* that of a normal change of leadership and so it is rather unlikely that the Euromaiden situation *was* just a normal legal change of leadership.
If the consequences are those of a rebellion, that is the country shatters and it's authority collapses so they can't do basic stuff like keep Russians from moving heavy artillery pieces across the border into legal Ukrainian territory, it is a bit more than just 'we got rid of Liz Truss and got Rishi Sunak'.
It’s just like the last guy who seems to be unable to consider how their arguments apply to their position. “Legal fictions” also apply to the authority of the “government of Donbas and Luhansk”, and quite frankly the logical conclusion of their arguments is that all authority everywhere in the world is a “legal fiction” and thus can be ignored by anyone. It would be interesting if the varied and sundry regional independence movements around the globe decided to take this position, but it’s unworkable in reality.
As Starver said, it’s basically the Sovereign Citizen nonsense writ large, and consequently as ridiculous as those positions.
But yeah, banning someone for idiocy is no bueno.
It is the exact opposite of the Sovereign Citizen nonsense.
No it doesn't apply. Your actual relationship to your son, your daughter, your wife, your husband etc are not legal fictions and all have their special character. They are however relationships with a legal existence and thus can become legal fictions, unlike other relationships like friendship that cannot ever become legal fictions because they are descriptions of an actual state that de-facto exists between two persons but not a formal, legal status. Yet an unrecognised parental/spouse relationship is not the same as a friendship.
The exact same situation exists with your relationship to authorities over you. You *are* ruled by your government, (or if you are in much of Ukraine somebody else's government) and whether this is legal or not is quite seperate from that fact. You are ruled because you abide by it's authority and if you do not abide by it's authority they have the ability to punish you. Both are facts and have nothing to with their legality.
Believing that you are only bound by authority *because* it is legal, that is Sovereign Citizen nonsense. I hold that your relationship to authority is para-legal, that your authorities *are* your authorities regardless of legality, in much the same way that you would continue to love your wife just as much if the government decided that your marraige was invalid. Rebellion is basically the reverse of this, you ignore the legality of your authorities and render them into a legal fiction.
As a result of this fundermental reality, it can be expected that when countries have successful rebellions against their authorities (like Ukraine), what happens is we end up with a fractured country that de-facto is many states but legally speaking is just one state. This is what Crimea, Dontesk and Luhansk all are, they are fragments of Ukraine created by the Ukrainians Euromaiden uprising to overthrow their democratically elected president. The same thing happened in the past to innumerable countries, they shattered because their central authority was destroyed.
The question is whether such fragments have the sovereign rights to decide their own destiny. The Ukrainian position is an unequivical no, the Russian position is (yes, when it suits us :)).
There is no "mind to be made". There is no such thing as a Dombass republic, if we're talking about facts as you imply you want. There is a pseudo government ran by FSB agents without legitimacy nor international recognition, and a republic it does not make.
The only good thing about those bandit groups (which is a factual characterisation) is Strelkov's twitter warfare.
In general, reading your post, you seem to be confused about what makes legitimacy. Ukraine is a sovereign territory, its institutions are internationally recognized, so are its borders (which include Crimea by the way). The country is audited by its peers and recognized by the majority of the world's powers. And yes, even though the country had gone through the Orange revolution and the revolution of dignity (whose legitmacy are, again, internationally recognized).
Lugansk and Donetsk so-called republics however, have none of the sort. They are without legitimacy, and remain foreign occupied regions of Ukraine. It doesn't really matter what Russia say to its domestic population ; these are not countries, they are Russian occupied territories nothing more nothing less.
You seem rather knowledgable about supposadly secretive operations. If they were all FSB agents, you wouldn't know it and it also makes no legal difference to anything. If a foreign spy becomes the leader of a country, legally speaking the countries are still not the same thing. Nowadays of course the Russians would claim that they are, but even I don't believe in the legality of the recent referendums to join Russia (they are idiotic).
You also seem to think that international recognition by your enemies means anything at all. Nobody in Donbass or Crimea gives a damn that nobody recognises their Russianness, but they *would* give a damn if Russia stopped doing this. Everyone in the world can agree that something is legally so, but all the authority in the world cannot make their legal judgements fact by simply pronouncing them so.
That is where the war part comes in. War is the means by which legal fictions get turned into facts. What Ukraine is trying to do with Crimea and Donbass, so far with little success.
Post by: Starver on February 02, 2023, 01:08:19 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 02, 2023, 01:24:21 pm
Everyone knows that there were Russians involved in fighting in Donbass, nobody denied it and the whole idea that there was any sort of denial is itself a lie invented in order to support the Western conspiracy theory of 'little green men'. This is itself a form of Anti-Knowledge designed to plaster over the shattered state of Ukraine at the time, there is was no need for Russia to invade since there are numerous splinter states begging for Russian aid to not be reconquered by Ukraine. The stupidity of Russia is that they chose to steal Crimea rather than group the three splinter states into an Anti-Ukraine, to create a civil war in which they could intervene with full force to crush the new Ukraine and bring back the old.
Quote from: http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/9/1/novoazovsk-ukrainerussia.html
Then, as now, Russia denied that it sent its military into Ukrainian territory.Putin denies Russian soldiers in Crimea. Annexes Crimea. Announces that the non-uniformed men were in fact, Russian soldiers.
In March, Russia annexed Crimea after a referendum vote conducted as armed men guarded the streets of the Crimea. Kiev and most of the international community has not recognized Russia’s annexation, but in April, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly confirmed that the “green men” of Crimea were in fact Russian soldiers.
And of course you're saying no one denied Russia sent its military into Ukrainian territory despite Putin denying Russian troops were in Ukrainian territory during the war in donbass (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/putin-denies-russian-troops-are-in-ukraine-decrees-certain-deaths-secret/2015/05/28/9bb15092-0543-11e5-93f4-f24d4af7f97d_story.html). You're just intentionally spreading lies at this point
An important distinction here is whether they were forces that were merely Russian or whether they were forces that are operated as part of the Russian army. It is quite normal for states to employ foreign nationals in their armies, as volunteers/merceneries. In fact not only is it the case, but it is very much the norm in many historical eras.Brigades of tanks and paratroopers are not "volunteers" and Wagner is an appendage of Russian foreign policy, not an independent entity
The majority of the sailors aboard the Spanish Armada were if I recall correctly Italian. We don't call it the Italian Armada as a result.???
They were recruited from Spanish Italy, led by the Spanish Duke of Parma, under Spanish organisation, colours and command, to fight in the Spanish navy
A vote of no-confidence is not a rebellion. It is a legal process to remove a leader from office, a rebellion is an illegal overthrow of a government, the key element here is LAW. You can spout conspiracy theories about little green men sneaking into Ukraine and forcing the local Ukrainians to set up sham governments all you wish, they remain unproven claims and there is no point in debating with people guillable enough to simply state unproven claims as certain, unquestionable fact.Invades your country
"What? It's a conspiracy, no russians here,"
Russian troops with russian equipment and uniforms with insignias removed
"Where's the evidence? Where's the proof? I bet those locals just found some tanks from a Ukrainian pound shop,"
President of Russia says they are Russian troops
"The President of Russia is clearly a NATO shill,"
Yes legal fictions are neccesery, but they are not the same thing as facts. They are also the greatest enemy of peace ever invented (more about this later).Waging war on people is the enemy of peace m8
That is where the war part comes in. War is the means by which legal fictions get turned into facts. What Ukraine is trying to do with Crimea and Donbass, so far with little success.My guy you have gone off-rail drifting beyond the boundaries of reality
Russia just tried to wipe Ukraine off the map. Ukraine is not trying to do anything except repel an invader
Post by: Ganondworf on February 02, 2023, 01:37:35 pm
What Ukraine is trying to do with Crimea and Donbass, so far with little success.
This amount of victim blaming is mind boggling.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 02, 2023, 02:17:45 pm
Quote
This is what Crimea, Dontesk and Luhansk all are, they are fragments of Ukraine created by the Ukrainians Euromaiden uprising to overthrow their democratically elected president.
Maidens, it is always because of young women, right?
Political crises are normal in democracies, in young democracies they can be rather messy. It doesn't mean that they stop being democracies or that country somehow loses its legitimacy. Euromaydan crisis ended with democratically elected parliament removing president (who had single digits approval rating at this point. even pro-Russians hated) followed by democratic elections of new president.
Nothing, absolutely nothing would happen if not the invasion of Russia. Tell me why nothing happened in Central Ukraine in which Yanukovitch also won the election. Why no "revolt" there? The answer is simple - Russian soldiers and mercenaries couldn't really reach there. Their resources were limited.
If this would be a reaction to "the unlawful removal of the president"... Ukraine would see a Civil War with guerillas everywhere. It never happened. Even in Odesa (after Russian agents, who mostly came from Transnistria, were put in their place by the resistance of citizens, local police didn't really function.) and Kharkiv (there police arrested a bunch of people) we had seen nothing resembling armed resistance.
Also, there are really few collaborators now. And no Pro-Russian partisan groups behind the lines. Some traitors provide intelligence to the Russians and that's all.
Post by: nenjin on February 02, 2023, 02:32:37 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 02, 2023, 03:21:08 pm
Post by: Thorfinn on February 02, 2023, 04:29:13 pm
RD probably does not want my endorsement, but the fact is that he is right. Everyone, including the Ukrainian government, agreed that when the guy from our church was killed in Donetsk, it was the Azov battalion that was responsible. They promised to prosecute. And yet...
Yep, I get that most people, from any side, cannot help but base their opinions on confirmation bias. So mostly we are probably going to have to eventually accepting that reality displaces fantasy, no matter how many people have to die.
Post by: jipehog on February 02, 2023, 05:03:47 pm
Well, I was mostly talking tactics, as the most obvious visible difference (between zerg-rushing and actually doing something sensible and not self-defeating in an offensive action) in the way they are seen to be (re)acting. But you're right that it may represent actual shift in strategy (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64455123) at the practical level.
From what I understand, Russia have been desperately trying to seize Bahmut, fighting with limited means against well fortified positions with little success, and recently they have received reinforcements of capable units freed from Kehrson. I am warry of using term like Zerg rush, from what I hear Ukraine wasn't particularly effective against well prepared defenses in Kehrson either .
Insufficient manpower has been one of Russia's handicaps from the get go. In their attempt to salvage their campaign and unwillingness to mobilize, their units combat power has been greatly reduced and they were stretched thin over huge front (Effectively the secret of Ukraine success in Kharkiv was a small force that went for a joy ride avoiding engaging Russian troops posts) It didn't help that they lost a large portion of professional troops in its catastrophic "faint" on moscow, and poorly trained/equipped reservist were rushed to the front to fill the gaps. And I am afraid that with current mobilization of such a large quantity of troops that are at least partially trained, Russia will address this problems, and would gain much more freedom of action as oppose to reaction.
They also seem to addressing their logistics issues and adapting to challenges like anyone else. And their bombing campaign seem effective.
Post by: hector13 on February 02, 2023, 05:49:55 pm
What kind of a "democrat" could reject the plebicite?
RD probably does not want my endorsement, but the fact is that he is right. Everyone, including the Ukrainian government, agreed that when the guy from our church was killed in Donetsk, it was the Azov battalion that was responsible. They promised to prosecute. And yet...
Yep, I get that most people, from any side, cannot help but base their opinions on confirmation bias. So mostly we are probably going to have to eventually accepting that reality displaces fantasy, no matter how many people have to die.
You were told to come back with interesting conspiracies, I rate this 2/10 trolling.
Post by: EuchreJack on February 02, 2023, 10:24:01 pm
(quote removed)Please stop misappropriating this thread. The purpose of this thread is for people to give their personal thoughts, or emotional responses, to the War in Ukraine. I also note the phrase "Personal Diary & Mutual Support".
So far, you are stating your position in a downright mechanical way, with no emotion and no opinion. This isn't Rational Debate over the War in Ukraine. If you want to debate the war, please make your own thread and get out of mine. This is "Russians, Americans, and Ukrainians bitch about the war" thread.
What kind of a "democrat" could reject the plebicite?You got any details on that attack? Maybe a news story, or the date & location?
RD probably does not want my endorsement, but the fact is that he is right. Everyone, including the Ukrainian government, agreed that when the guy from our church was killed in Donetsk, it was the Azov battalion that was responsible. They promised to prosecute. And yet...
Yep, I get that most people, from any side, cannot help but base their opinions on confirmation bias. So mostly we are probably going to have to eventually accepting that reality displaces fantasy, no matter how many people have to die.
I can certainly see how that would piss anyone off.
EDIT: Removed the quote.
Post by: nenjin on February 02, 2023, 11:07:16 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 03, 2023, 03:18:20 am
Your quote formatting is invading my eyeballs.Where's the proof? That formatting is just home grown eye insurrectionists who've declared independence from your brain. No invasions here
Post by: King Zultan on February 03, 2023, 04:36:48 am
Post by: hector13 on February 03, 2023, 09:03:20 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 03, 2023, 09:36:54 am
RD probably does not want my endorsement, but the fact is that he is right. Everyone, including the Ukrainian government, agreed that when the guy from our church was killed in Donetsk, it was the Azov battalion that was responsible. They promised to prosecute. And yet...
Citation needed. I'll even accept a Russian source to start digging. What event are you talking about? After all, promises and statements of the government are quite public
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 03, 2023, 09:48:42 am
That’s what I’ve been saying! At least entertain us if you’re going to be an idiot.ikr. It's just sad. If they were Z-ombified fellow Russians I'd understand. I'd still insult and hate them but I'd understand. The Americans who choose to suck off Putin are just pathetic.
Post by: jipehog on February 03, 2023, 11:41:18 am
Essentially, this is the game, the narratives are crafted to suit ones goals not the other way around. You have similar thing with climate change. The real question isn't whether it is happening, it is what we are going to do about it, it is multi billion (if not trillion) dollar question.
The common extremes is that the end is nigh and we need to go all in on green tech vs its fake/alarmism we don't need todo anything technology and private sector will sort it out as they always do. More importantly, one should understand that climate change is global problem, but green tech is not a viable or desirable solution for everyone, and thus someone will need to pick up the slack. Then there are super national considerations, and political realities.
For example, in Russia solar and wind energy are not as viable as they are in north Africa and north-west Europe respectively. Russia lack the infrastructure, even countries like Germany had issues, and Russia due to dilapidated state and its huge size would need to invest MUCH more with far LESS profit margins (wrose if you consider electric car charging stations). There are security considerations, many advanced schemes require cooperation and dependence on other countries, and one may not want the possibility of your industry grinding into halt with a flick of switch or hitting couple of main transmission lines. Finally, there are economic realities (Russia have a lot of cheap fissile fuels) and the global market.
Now ask yourself will Russian politicians who seek to stay in power, in age of social media populism/outrage and short attention span, try to educate their populace about the state of their country (which would have many negative effects to the economy ) or give ambiguous answers playing into existing narratives that gets them there..
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 03, 2023, 03:17:31 pm
According to you every successful vote of no confidence means the new government is a rebel government and and is an invitation to invade. Do you hear yourself?
These guys who supposedly didn't "recognize the new government's authority" were Russian plants who ran in moments before to set up shop. DPR and LPR are transparent farces. They have no legitimacy from the people or anything else. They are completely full of nothing but Russian criminals. LPR's minister of culture is an actual fucking prostitute. It's a sick joke.
It is so abundantly not-a-secret that Russian government sent some cronies over the border to yak a little about some supposed new government (which just coincidentally wants to join Russia) to paint some shitty half-assed-as-always veneer of legitimacy over their expansionism and you just eat it up hook, line, and sinker.
A vote of no-confidence is not a rebellion. It is a legal process to remove a leader from office, a rebellion is an illegal overthrow of a government, the key element here is LAW. You can spout conspiracy theories about little green men sneaking into Ukraine and forcing the local Ukrainians to set up sham governments all you wish, they remain unproven claims and there is no point in debating with people guillable enough to simply state unproven claims as certain, unquestionable fact.
Tell me, what do you think actually happened at Euromaidan? Give me a rundown. How did Yanukovych vacate the office of President? Who broke the law in any meaningful way, other than state authorities who killed protestors?
I am still amazed anyone would defend the Yanukovych government, which was literally the world's epitome of criminality and corruption, as Transparency International says (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/7603).
If people protesting in the town square is such a sad disregard of law for you, what do you say about unelected, violent "separatists" storming and taking control of elected regional administrations with arms, which by the way had not changed in Euromaidan? These same separatists who then set up whatever you call this horrific circus. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People%27s_Republic#Human_rights)
If the people you keep defending on legal grounds consistently happen to be the absolute scum of the earth, it may be time to reflect on the validity or relevance of these legal grounds.
Post by: EuchreJack on February 03, 2023, 07:21:02 pm
Do they? From USA perspective, Russia is not a peer or near-peer competitor, USA only threat is China who is also the biggest beneficiary of this war. There are a lot of people in USA who believes that their support should be limited. Naturally decision makers also have to contend with public opinion and such sentiments will be unpopular (, may not want to raise public tension vis a vis China at this time etc) hence why some would choose to play into existing narratives that would shape popular support in the direction they seek.Translation:
Essentially, this is the game, the narratives are crafted to suit ones goals not the other way around. You have similar thing with climate change. The real question isn't whether it is happening, it is what we are going to do about it, it is multi billion (if not trillion) dollar question.
The common extremes is that the end is nigh and we need to go all in on green tech vs its fake/alarmism we don't need todo anything technology and private sector will sort it out as they always do. More importantly, one should understand that climate change is global problem, but green tech is not a viable or desirable solution for everyone, and thus someone will need to pick up the slack. Then there are super national considerations, and political realities.
For example, in Russia solar and wind energy are not as viable as they are in north Africa and north-west Europe respectively. Russia lack the infrastructure, even countries like Germany had issues, and Russia due to dilapidated state and its huge size would need to invest MUCH more with far LESS profit margins (wrose if you consider electric car charging stations). There are security considerations, many advanced schemes require cooperation and dependence on other countries, and one may not want the possibility of your industry grinding into halt with a flick of switch or hitting couple of main transmission lines. Finally, there are economic realities (Russia have a lot of cheap fissile fuels) and the global market.
Now ask yourself will Russian politicians who seek to stay in power, in age of social media populism/outrage and short attention span, try to educate their populace about the state of their country (which would have many negative effects to the economy ) or give ambiguous answers playing into existing narratives that gets them there..
Republicans Like Russia because Russia gives them money.
Democrats Like China because China gives them money.
Ergo, Republicans Hate China
Ergo, Democrats Hate Russia
Thus, Republicans Hate those who Hate Russia
Thus, Democrats Hate those who Hate China
Look at how the Democrats are dancing around the Chinese "weather balloon".
While honoring a brave dead American Hero...to fund Ukraine against Russia.
The US only has two political parties: Russia's Proxies and China's Proxies.
There is one horrible alternative...
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: EuchreJack on February 03, 2023, 07:24:54 pm
Please stop engaging with Red Diamond. I told them I didn't think they belonged in this particular thread, so stop inviting them back in.According to you every successful vote of no confidence means the new government is a rebel government and and is an invitation to invade. Do you hear yourself?
These guys who supposedly didn't "recognize the new government's authority" were Russian plants who ran in moments before to set up shop. DPR and LPR are transparent farces. They have no legitimacy from the people or anything else. They are completely full of nothing but Russian criminals. LPR's minister of culture is an actual fucking prostitute. It's a sick joke.
It is so abundantly not-a-secret that Russian government sent some cronies over the border to yak a little about some supposed new government (which just coincidentally wants to join Russia) to paint some shitty half-assed-as-always veneer of legitimacy over their expansionism and you just eat it up hook, line, and sinker.
A vote of no-confidence is not a rebellion. It is a legal process to remove a leader from office, a rebellion is an illegal overthrow of a government, the key element here is LAW. You can spout conspiracy theories about little green men sneaking into Ukraine and forcing the local Ukrainians to set up sham governments all you wish, they remain unproven claims and there is no point in debating with people guillable enough to simply state unproven claims as certain, unquestionable fact.
Tell me, what do you think actually happened at Euromaidan? Give me a rundown. How did Yanukovych vacate the office of President? Who broke the law in any meaningful way, other than state authorities who killed protestors?
I am still amazed anyone would defend the Yanukovych government, which was literally the world's epitome of criminality and corruption, as Transparency International says (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/7603).
If people protesting in the town square is such a sad disregard of law for you, what do you say about unelected, violent "separatists" storming and taking control of elected regional administrations with arms, which by the way had not changed in Euromaidan? These same separatists who then set up whatever you call this horrific circus. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People%27s_Republic#Human_rights)
If the people you keep defending on legal grounds consistently happen to be the absolute scum of the earth, it may be time to reflect on the validity or relevance of these legal grounds.
You are both free to start up another discussion elsewhere.
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 03, 2023, 08:00:27 pm
Look at how the Democrats are dancing around the Chinese "weather balloon".
While honoring a brave dead American Hero...to fund Ukraine against Russia.
I mentioned this in the dedicated thread, but doing anything more about the Chinese spy balloon than they're currently doing would be really, really stupid. On a 1 to 10 scale of International Incident Severity, it doesn't even merit a 1.
Post by: hector13 on February 03, 2023, 08:10:03 pm
They’re not breaking rules per se, but… it’s pretty clear from reading any thread with a political shade that the forum leans pretty strongly to the left, so to create an account to shit on left-leaning positions is just… really bizarre.
Post by: EuchreJack on February 03, 2023, 08:11:15 pm
They’re not breaking rules per se, but… it’s pretty clear from reading any thread with a political shade that the forum leans pretty strongly to the left, so to create an account to shit on left-leaning positions is just… really bizarre.Fuck you, libtard :P
...that being said, playing Toady's earlier work, Liberal Crime Squad, needs to be mandatory for all prospective forumites.
Post by: hector13 on February 03, 2023, 08:12:42 pm
Well you don’t shit in things for no reason, you usually have at least a minor attachment to reality for your beliefs :pThey’re not breaking rules per se, but… it’s pretty clear from reading any thread with a political shade that the forum leans pretty strongly to the left, so to create an account to shit on left-leaning positions is just… really bizarre.Fuck you, libtard :P
Post by: EuchreJack on February 03, 2023, 08:14:24 pm
Which gives me the high ground, I wager. :PWell you don’t shit in things for no reason, you usually have at least a minor attachment to reality for your beliefs :pThey’re not breaking rules per se, but… it’s pretty clear from reading any thread with a political shade that the forum leans pretty strongly to the left, so to create an account to shit on left-leaning positions is just… really bizarre.Fuck you, libtard :P
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 03, 2023, 09:57:30 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 03, 2023, 10:14:13 pm
Post by: hector13 on February 03, 2023, 10:32:35 pm
Evidently they were breaking the rules. I guess the three posts I saw them make were of the stupidly abrasive variety.
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 03, 2023, 10:38:30 pm
Post by: King Zultan on February 04, 2023, 03:27:08 am
Post by: Red Diamond on February 04, 2023, 06:32:58 am
Red D, your nonsense continues. I don't know if you're a Useful Idiot or a knowing troll, but you need a new patter and/or a new audience. Do yourself a favour...
I am doing you all a favour by educating you all regarding the facts of the situation, I have spent very little time actually arguing *for* the Russian position and against the Ukrainian one. The average Ukrainiak seems to know nothing at all about the background to the situation in Ukraine, that is quite evident to me from all the posting that ignores basic historical facts. They are also typically fanatics highly intolerant of anyone that would breach their media propoganda bubble, because they have attempted to fill the gaps in their knowledge presently occupied by essentially Hollywood/Disney film scripts.
Putin denies Russian soldiers in Crimea. Annexes Crimea. Announces that the non-uniformed men were in fact, Russian soldiers.
And of course you're saying no one denied Russia sent its military into Ukrainian territory despite Putin denying Russian troops were in Ukrainian territory during the war in donbass (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/putin-denies-russian-troops-are-in-ukraine-decrees-certain-deaths-secret/2015/05/28/9bb15092-0543-11e5-93f4-f24d4af7f97d_story.html). You're just intentionally spreading lies at this point.
There are two senses of the word Russian soldier here. There are those soldiers who have Russian nationality and there are those who presently belong to the Russian army (who may not have said nationality), so when you ask Putin a question about whether Russian soldiers are fighting in Crimea, you will get two answers depending upon what he thinks the context of your question happens to be.
They were recruited from Spanish Italy, led by the Spanish Duke of Parma, under Spanish organisation, colours and command, to fight in the Spanish navy.
Um no. https://www.britishbattles.com/the-spanish-war/the-spanish-armada/
Quote
Combatants in the Spanish Armada campaign: The Armada (Spanish for “Fleet”), manned by Spaniards, Portuguese, Italians, Germans, Dutch, Flemings, Irish and English against the English Fleet assisted by the Dutch Fleet.
The armada is manned by people from basically everywhere, including apparently England itself.
Point is that countries are not legally responsible for the acts carried out by volunteers/merceneries of their nationality fighting abroard. So if Russians fight against Ukraine in the Donbass, Russia is not responsible for their acts, since they do not fight under Russian command and bear Russian colours. The last part is important, a mercenery/volunteer force not presently employed by anyone marches without an insignia and then recieves an insignia from it's new employers upon arrival in their territory; that is how the world has worked since forever.
Invades your country
"What? It's a conspiracy, no russians here,"
Russian troops with russian equipment and uniforms with insignias removed
"Where's the evidence? Where's the proof? I bet those locals just found some tanks from a Ukrainian pound shop,"
President of Russia says they are Russian troops
"The President of Russia is clearly a NATO shill,"
As already described, the first part (in 2014) is a conspiracy theory. Ukraine lost control of said territories because it had a revolution (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolution_of_Dignity) to overthrow their previous, democratically elected president. Those places were the staunchest supporters *of* said government and so it is not a stretch to imagine that Ukraine would *lose* control of said territories during the process of the revolution.
And if the Ukrainians do not control the territories, there isn't any invasion of Ukraine is there?
My guy you have gone off-rail drifting beyond the boundaries of reality
Russia just tried to wipe Ukraine off the map. Ukraine is not trying to do anything except repel an invader
Russia for ages actually recognised Ukrainian legal claim to the Donbass, refusing to annex the place despite it being their ally and Ukraine their enemy. Nowadays they are trying to make 'extensive territorial adjustments' to move Ukraine's borders hundreds of miles westward.
Maidens, it is always because of young women, right?
Political crises are normal in democracies, in young democracies they can be rather messy. It doesn't mean that they stop being democracies or that country somehow loses its legitimacy. Euromaydan crisis ended with democratically elected parliament removing president (who had single digits approval rating at this point. even pro-Russians hated) followed by democratic elections of new president.
Nothing, absolutely nothing would happen if not the invasion of Russia. Tell me why nothing happened in Central Ukraine in which Yanukovitch also won the election. Why no "revolt" there? The answer is simple - Russian soldiers and mercenaries couldn't really reach there. Their resources were limited.
If this would be a reaction to "the unlawful removal of the president"... Ukraine would see a Civil War with guerillas everywhere. It never happened. Even in Odesa (after Russian agents, who mostly came from Transnistria, were put in their place by the resistance of citizens, local police didn't really function.) and Kharkiv (there police arrested a bunch of people) we had seen nothing resembling armed resistance.
Also, there are really few collaborators now. And no Pro-Russian partisan groups behind the lines. Some traitors provide intelligence to the Russians and that's all.
Whether the present Ukraine is presently a democracy or not is entirely irrelevant to the issue. Both what country claims to possess and what is does possess remain absolutely unchanged regardless of whether the country is considered a democracy or not.
"A civil war with guerillas everywhere," this is basically what happened. :) :)
That is where the "little green men" conspiracy theory comes in, the Ukrainiaks have to deny that Ukraine is shattered by the Revolution of Dignity, as can be expected if you overthrow an elected president. Central Ukraine is a "swing state" here, if roughly half the people in the place support the new government, it is pretty difficult to for their opposition to stop said new government taking over without outside military support. The places Ukraine ends up losing are those places that are solidly behind the previous government and these places then choose to do what they probably always wanted to do anyway (but Ukraine wouldn't let them) which is to join Russia. Ironically, it is Russia that doesn't want the Donbass Republics for ages because to Russia supporters inside Ukraine are more useful than just another Russian province since Russia's interests are to control the alignment of the whole Ukraine not own scraps of it outright.
That there are divergant interests *between* the Russians and the Donbass republics is evidence against the green man conspiracy theory. The republics want to join Russia, the Russians want them to remain in Ukraine and try to win back control of the government there. If the invading Russian armies simply invented the rebublics as a fiction, their interests would align perfectly with the ends of the Kremlin.
Another reason the little green men conspiracy theory is nonsense is simply the speed and ease with which Russia takes Crimea. There is simply no way for Russian forces to swiftly *get* to Crimea, since the bridge has yet to be built. So the only way for Russia to take Crimea is to land on the coastline, which means they have to control the ports (but Ukraine controls the ports don't they?). Yes the Russians do have a few troops in Crimea already, but with the Ukrainians in charge of Crimea they will soon be besieged inside their bases.
Tell me, what do you think actually happened at Euromaidan? Give me a rundown. How did Yanukovych vacate the office of President? Who broke the law in any meaningful way, other than state authorities who killed protestors?
I am still amazed anyone would defend the Yanukovych government, which was literally the world's epitome of criminality and corruption, as Transparency International says (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/7603).
If people protesting in the town square is such a sad disregard of law for you, what do you say about unelected, violent "separatists" storming and taking control of elected regional administrations with arms, which by the way had not changed in Euromaidan? These same separatists who then set up whatever you call this horrific circus. (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People%27s_Republic#Human_rights)
If the people you keep defending on legal grounds consistently happen to be the absolute scum of the earth, it may be time to reflect on the validity or relevance of these legal grounds.
Because claims of ultra-corruptness are seldom anything but a form of black propoganda against a regime. Corruption is subjective anyway, government officials do not serve in Dwarf Fortress dwarf fashion perfectly selflessly working for the good of their countries; they want stuff for themselves. Anti-Corruption then is rather funny, the more laws you have against corrupt practices the more corrupt you are because the more the laws interfere with your self-enrichment, the more people you are going to have breaking them. Anti-corruption efforts lead to anti-corruption laws, hence more 'corruption'.
They aren't seperatists and they aren't very well armed, which is why Ukraine ended up with most of it's old territories, it conquered them. They were not prepared beforehand to go up against the Ukrainian army, so only those able to recieve militery aid from Russia were able to stand their ground.
What happens in Euromaiden, well you can just go look at Wikipedia but this is my take.
1. Yanukavich gets elected by the east of the country, opposed by the west.
2. Yanukavich faces an opposition legislative that lobbies him to sign an agreement with the EU.
3. Yanukavich signals he will sign said agreement in order to leverage more support from Moscow.
4. Yanukavich negotiates a very, very nice loan from Russia in return for not signing the agreement.
5. Yanukavich abandons the agreement with the EU.
6. The opposition are angry that they did not get their way.
7. A rebellion forms trying to oust Yanukavich.
8. Yanukavich's forces begin to crush the rebellion.
9. The opposition legislative successfully sabotages the government's efforts to deal with the rebels.
10. The Russians are too stupid to send forces into Kiev to keep Yanukavich from being overthrown so he is.
11. With the fall of Yanukavich, a new government is formed.
12. Ukraine loses control of Crimea, Luhansk and Donetesk (at least) because these supported the former president.
13. Ukraine starts a war of conquest to bring all splinter territories back under it's rule.
14. The Russians annex Crimea outright.
15. The Russians support Luhansk and Donetesk in their war against Russia. All the other splinter territories, (if there are any) are swiftly conquered because of the lack of such support.
Please stop misappropriating this thread. The purpose of this thread is for people to give their personal thoughts, or emotional responses, to the War in Ukraine. I also note the phrase "Personal Diary & Mutual Support".
So far, you are stating your position in a downright mechanical way, with no emotion and no opinion. This isn't Rational Debate over the War in Ukraine. If you want to debate the war, please make your own thread and get out of mine. This is "Russians, Americans, and Ukrainians bitch about the war" thread.
I am stating my position so in a mechanical way because that is how you argue with angry people, you mechanically state facts while avoiding anything that will further inflame their emotional rage.
Post by: martinuzz on February 04, 2023, 06:58:06 am
Then the president, Yanukovich, was abdicated by parliament, and new democratic elections were held. This is not a revolution, this is how a democratic system works. Parliament can send home the government. Over here in the Netherlands, it would be called a 'vote of no confidence'. That is normal.
It is in no way a justification for forming seperatist movements that violently secede, and it most certainly no reason for a foreign power to invade your country.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 04, 2023, 07:09:36 am
Post by: Ganondworf on February 04, 2023, 07:12:16 am
...
Moving on. There will be a "new international center to enable the prosecution of war crimes committed by Russia during its war in Ukraine", European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised.
https://nltimes.nl/2023/02/02/european-office-gather-proof-war-crimes-ukraine-will-set-hague (https://nltimes.nl/2023/02/02/european-office-gather-proof-war-crimes-ukraine-will-set-hague) I hope this means that we don't have to wait 20 - 40 years for any kind of successful investigations and trials.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 04, 2023, 07:33:20 am
Quote
"A civil war with guerillas everywhere," this is basically what happened. :) :)
You can shove your happy smiles....
No, this is not what happened. You completely ignored my argument that civil war should have been every region in which Yanukovich had voters not only in few areas bordering Russia.
Quote
The places Ukraine ends up losing are those places that are solidly behind the previous government and these places then choose to do what they probably always wanted to do anyway (but Ukraine wouldn't let them) which is to join Russia.
There is no need for your idiotic probably. There are numerous polls. This area did always have people that wanted to join Russia... in single digits % of the population
Quote
There is simply no way for Russian forces to swiftly *get* to Crimea, since the bridge has yet to be built. So the only way for Russia to take Crimea is to land on the coastline, which means they have to control the ports (but Ukraine controls the ports don't they?).
Yeah, let us ignore a huge Russian naval military base in Crimea. Nice alternative reality you have there
____________
You are a liar, plain and simple. Every single word you say is a misrepresentation, falsehood or outright lie. I have no interest in further "discussion" with you until you admit your rather stupid lies
Post by: jipehog on February 04, 2023, 07:33:40 am
The US only has two political parties: Russia's Proxies and China's Proxies.
There is one horrible alternative...Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Not sure I explained its well enough, what I said applies to all countries, and is consequence of the information age. Another way you can think about is politicians utilizing filibuster tactics for the media. Although not all methods used are direct, and many shared with sphere of advertisement.
But specifically about USA and motivation you may find this intresting:
https://www.ted.com/talks/jonathan_haidt_the_moral_roots_of_liberals_and_conservatives
Putin's answer was deliberate misinformation to give a venire of plausibility to his self serving narrative.Putin denies Russian soldiers in Crimea. Annexes Crimea. Announces that the non-uniformed men were in fact, Russian soldiers.
And of course you're saying no one denied Russia sent its military into Ukrainian territory despite Putin denying Russian troops were in Ukrainian territory during the war in donbass (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/putin-denies-russian-troops-are-in-ukraine-decrees-certain-deaths-secret/2015/05/28/9bb15092-0543-11e5-93f4-f24d4af7f97d_story.html). You're just intentionally spreading lies at this point.
There are two senses of the word Russian soldier here. There are those soldiers who have Russian nationality and there are those who presently belong to the Russian army (who may not have said nationality), so when you ask Putin a question about whether Russian soldiers are fighting in Crimea, you will get two answers depending upon what he thinks the context of your question happens to be.
A year after the fact, in documentary about Crimea capture Putin admitted that decision was made at least a week prior the capture of parament many remember from the media. More importantly, it supports what was shown in other sources about Russian troop movement into Crimea and deployment beyond their allowed areas in advance of that event.
Russia campaign was very well coordinated and executed. They have managed to captured strategic locations isolating Crimea from Ukraine, both physically by land/sea/air and by cutting communications lines; they brought significant amount of troops and pined down Ukrainian forces. They have used the mobilization (initially used to obscure troop movement to Crimea) on Ukraine borders in the East to cow Ukraine under fear of further escalation Meanwhile, politically they have secured the parliament, in the dark and under gunpoint they have rushed a new government headed by a loyalist, which gave them a referendum. They also fantastically utilized information warfare in the media (Ukraine media was disrupted)
It is undeniable that Russia used military force to intervene in Ukraine's sovereign territory and just as bad prevent Ukraine to exercise its rights. In what was certainly a scenario prepared in advanced, an outcome Russia warned Ukraine about months before if the choose to to go with EU economic association plan. Interestingly, this also where Russia use of PMC got solidified, understanding the benefit of plausible deniability, ability to circumvent local law and some international conventions, and lack of accountability at home and concern to losses. They make great use of them in Africa right now.
Edited. rm ** forgot I wanted to write about Russia involvement in the east but this is already in the 'too long didn't read' territory so no need.
Post by: hector13 on February 04, 2023, 11:36:16 am
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 04, 2023, 11:48:37 am
I swear, not a single original bone in his body. He stole all his spambot code and regurgitated text from other Russian spambots, and stole his abbreviation from me for good measure. :P
Post by: hector13 on February 04, 2023, 12:11:00 pm
It’s post-truth denying reality levels of bullshit.
Post by: Starver on February 04, 2023, 12:55:18 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 04, 2023, 01:48:58 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 04, 2023, 09:07:27 pm
2. The eastern regions did not ever want to join Russia. A majority of each region of the Ukrainian SSR voted for Ukrainian independence in 1991, which was recognized by all involved parties as well as internationally. All polls for years have shown that reversing this vote and joining Russia is widely unpopular.
3. In contrast to the armed separatists, Euromaidan activists did not participate in an armed rebellion, but in protest on the town square after Yanukovich made an unpopular move against the intentions of the elected Parliament, capping off dissatisfaction which had been brewing for years, where they were shot by government security forces. Yanukovich lost almost all his support, signed an agreement with the opposition which included the provision that he would remain President for the time being. He then fled anyway, and the Parliament removed him from his post in absentia in a legal impeachment motion.
Everything that happened to Yanukovych was legal, and he left his post on his own initiative (because he understood his political career in Ukraine was already over).
And Yanukovich's corruption was not secret, ambiguous, or moderate in scale. He had a massive mansion estimated to cost $1 billion & a huge estate (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mezhyhirya_Residence), with his own galleon, an ostrich farm, a gold-plated chandelier, lakes of swans. People saw it all with their own eyes after Euromaidan, there are plenty of pictures. Meanwhile the state treasury was nearly empty when he left. Needless to say this is unlikely to be supported by his Presidential salary.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 04, 2023, 10:06:06 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on February 04, 2023, 10:21:50 pm
Oh my God, this troll bait is irresistible isn't it....apparently. ::)
Post by: hector13 on February 04, 2023, 10:35:08 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on February 04, 2023, 10:42:57 pm
I dunno man, there’s some value to correcting nonsense for the non-trolls who are ignorant of the situation, but the trick is perhaps in doing it in a way that the trolls can’t troll more.But what about those poorly informed and who desire to argue the point they heard so well on Fox News...
Post by: hector13 on February 04, 2023, 11:26:08 pm
They need to learn not to get their news from entertainment channels.I dunno man, there’s some value to correcting nonsense for the non-trolls who are ignorant of the situation, but the trick is perhaps in doing it in a way that the trolls can’t troll more.But what about those poorly informed and who desire to argue the point they heard so well on Fox News...
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 05, 2023, 12:39:26 am
Post by: King Zultan on February 05, 2023, 03:04:32 am
Post by: jipehog on February 05, 2023, 06:21:28 am
It’s post-truth denying reality levels of bullshit.Maybe he is just young adult trying to make sense of things.
Also reality is subjective and can be shaped by thought.
Otherwise in geopolitics there are no good or bad, only good or bad for who. iirc North America and Europe account to 15% of the world population while Asia account to 60%, it is almost inevitably that Asia will eventually become the center of the world. Will you the minority be playing by their rules or trying to make your own reality?
Post by: Strongpoint on February 05, 2023, 06:50:58 am
It’s post-truth denying reality levels of bullshit.Maybe he is just young adult trying to make sense of things.
Also reality is subjective and can be shaped by thought.
Otherwise in geopolitics there are no good or bad, only good or bad for who. iirc North America and Europe account to 15% of the world population while Asia account to 60%, it is almost inevitably that Asia will eventually become the center of the world. Will you the minority be playing by their rules or trying to make your own reality?
Reality is the state of things as they actually exist. It is not subjective by the very definition of the word.
As for the "Asia has more people and eventually will be dominant on the planetary scale" Asia has had more people for centuries and for centuries it is not dominant. I see no reason to assume that 21th century will be different.
Post by: jipehog on February 05, 2023, 07:35:39 am
Perhaps, then lets play a what if scenario. If the are destined to become the dominant power, will you then play by their rules?
Here is an interesting map: https://i.insider.com/5293dba3eab8ea086e8fe1e0
Post by: Strongpoint on February 05, 2023, 08:04:49 am
Reality is observed, and will be interpreted differently by various people.Interpretation doesn't change what reality is. "Truth is relative" is the biggest lie.
Quote
Perhaps, then lets play a what if scenario. If the are destined to become the dominant power, will you then play by their rulesWhat do you mean by that? Will I change my belief and values? No matter how strong or weak Russia will be, I'll see it as a disgusting culture that must be opposed. No matter how strong or weak China will be I won't approve of their genocide of Uighurs, No matter how strong or weak Muslim world will be, I won't stop considering Islam utterly despicable. And if the USA will become a fascist state tomorrow, I'll also not start thinking that Fascism is the best way of living.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 05, 2023, 08:06:21 am
Post by: Quarque on February 05, 2023, 09:58:08 am
Otherwise in geopolitics there are no good or bad, only good or bad for who.i.e. Might makes Right. Even from this cynical pov, who benefits from the war in Ukraine? I can think of one billionaire in a bunker who does, as he strengthens his hold on power. For ordinary Russians this shitshow is pure bad, they get to die in a pointless war.
Post by: jipehog on February 05, 2023, 10:20:42 am
But, I was talking about the value of perspective e.g. to heavily dependent on energy import Europe rising energy prices is bad, to major energy exports like OPEC rising energy prices is good (works magic in relationships too); and I would argue that this war is great for China regardless of who wins.
I wonder what MaxTheFox thinks about universal truths (e.g. of the church)Reality is observed, and will be interpreted differently by various people.Interpretation doesn't change what reality is. "Truth is relative" is the biggest lie.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 05, 2023, 10:48:47 am
Post by: Quarque on February 05, 2023, 11:11:45 am
Unfortunately might does make a lot of right.. If Putin had succeeded with his initial plan, there would be a very different reality right now regardless of how much huffing and puffing we would be doing about his "cheating".Do you think and talk the same way about Hitler? If he had succeeded in his initial plan the world would also look different, sure.
But, I was talking about the value of perspective e.g. to heavily dependent on energy import Europe rising energy prices is bad, to major energy exports like OPEC rising energy prices is good (works magic in relationships too); and I would argue that this war is great for China regardless of who wins.Still not seeing the value of the perspective. Ok, some oil sheiks might make extra profit. With China, I'd like to zoom in because China remains an abstraction. There's Chinese people and for them, did life really get noticeably better? I'm not convinced any marginal gains are nearly enough for them to compensate for the extra risk of a Nuclear winter, which now threatens the life of every human being on the planet.
And how is it relevant in the first place? We still have a dictator sacrificing thousands of lives, including many of his own people, bombing cities to smithereens. If some oil sheik happens to earn extra dollars from it, well great.
Post by: jipehog on February 05, 2023, 01:21:47 pm
Overall I am noting that if one want to better understand geopolitics, they need to try to set aside their biases and understand how things are, what everyone else want and when/how would they will react, then you can try to come up with how to bring your interests to bear e.g. There is a reason why much of Russia's shenanigans coincided with USA election time..
As for China. USA was leading an indo-pacific cooperation effort to counter balance China rise, a distracted USA\EU will benefit China secure some near-term strategic benefits in Asia and Africa. Weaker and cutoff from EU Russia would become much more reliant on China, which would benefit Chinas interest in central Asia. And overall China parrot Putin narratives that challenge and undermine the so called western "liberal world order". Just to name a few.
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 05, 2023, 05:16:20 pm
It’s post-truth denying reality levels of bullshit.Maybe he is just young adult trying to make sense of things.
Also reality is subjective and can be shaped by thought.
Otherwise in geopolitics there are no good or bad, only good or bad for who. iirc North America and Europe account to 15% of the world population while Asia account to 60%, it is almost inevitably that Asia will eventually become the center of the world. Will you the minority be playing by their rules or trying to make your own reality?
Population creating power is a myth, it's known that as countries develop their rate of growth stagnates or goes negative. At the same time their ability to demonstrate power grows. A country may have ten billion people but if they are all subsistence farming with no time for anything else, then they might as well not be there when you want to flood someone else's economy with cheap goods, for example.
Post by: jipehog on February 05, 2023, 07:26:28 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on February 06, 2023, 02:44:49 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 06, 2023, 03:28:39 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on February 06, 2023, 04:56:58 pm
in other news I just spoke to some russian friends who live in singapore and dubai respectively and they both said the same thing; the russian invasion has made the cost of business for russians go up everywhere in everything. One of them tried to get health insurance but had providers ask for a significant premium or a signed statement indicating they acknowledged the invasion of Ukraine was an illegal act of aggression. As they frequently return to Russian and such a statement could get them thrown in prison they opted to instead pay thousands of dollars more for health insurance. The other one tried setting up a business and again, found that things which took his partners a few dollarydoos to do, took him thousands, because anyone who does anything with regulation, compliance or insurance is deathly scared of accidentally working with a Russian:D
Post by: Red Diamond on February 07, 2023, 02:33:51 am
There was no revolution in Ukraine. There were protests. Those were violently beaten down, leading to nearly 100 protestors being killed, and 13 policemen.
Then the president, Yanukovich, was abdicated by parliament, and new democratic elections were held. This is not a revolution, this is how a democratic system works. Parliament can send home the government. Over here in the Netherlands, it would be called a 'vote of no confidence'. That is normal.
It is in no way a justification for forming seperatist movements that violently secede, and it most certainly no reason for a foreign power to invade your country.
No they can't. They aren't that sort of democratic system, the are an American style system where the President and Parliament are elected seperately, potentially leading to a situation where opposing parties control the Presidency as do the Parliament. I'll agree it is a bad system but it is the system that prevails in Ukraine.
The Ukrainians *call* it a Revolution of Diginity, even they agree it wasn't just buisiness as normal.
Moving on. There will be a "new international center to enable the prosecution of war crimes committed by Russia during its war in Ukraine", European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised.
https://nltimes.nl/2023/02/02/european-office-gather-proof-war-crimes-ukraine-will-set-hague (https://nltimes.nl/2023/02/02/european-office-gather-proof-war-crimes-ukraine-will-set-hague) I hope this means that we don't have to wait 20 - 40 years for any kind of successful investigations and trials.
Fortunately the Russians will take absolutely no notice of it.
You can shove your happy smiles....
No, this is not what happened. You completely ignored my argument that civil war should have been every region in which Yanukovich had voters not only in few areas bordering Russia.
Your argument doesn't make sense. Firstly things don't work in that kind of deterministic fashion and secondly you can drive or fly troops to most places in hours. If the new Ukrainian goverment sends troops to occupy the breakaway places fast enough, which barring an existing organised armed force opposing them they can do, it doesn't really matter much what the people there or their local authorities want.
You cannot simply expect people to conjure up an army out of nowhere, frankly your assumption seems to work on the idea that Ukraine is some kind of medieval feudal system where all the local barons have their own armies and get called up to form a Ukrainian army. It is the modern world, so the civil administrations of Ukraine are not blessed with large pre-existing armies ready to use to fight the new government.
I don't know the exact details of the degree of Ukraine's fragmentation and I am unsure if anyone does. Yet given how quickly modern armies can move the amount of territory initially reconquered by the Ukrainians before military resistance could be organised there was likely considerable, yet since I don't know the exact extent I refrain from making any definite claims. The reason then that Crimea, Donetesk and Luhansk 'got away' would have to do with the fact the Ukrainians had to fight their way through other hostile provinces to get to them.
There is no need for your idiotic probably. There are numerous polls. This area did always have people that wanted to join Russia... in single digits % of the population
Events happen, public opinions change. In any case, what matters here is what the people already in charge of those places decide and not what 51% of the voters want. There are two Donetesk Republics and there are two Ukrainian Oblasts in that area, with the same name and boundaries; this is no coincidence.
Yeah, let us ignore a huge Russian naval military base in Crimea. Nice alternative reality you have there
____________
You are a liar, plain and simple. Every single word you say is a misrepresentation, falsehood or outright lie. I have no interest in further "discussion" with you until you admit your rather stupid lies
You cannot state conspiracy theories about secret Russian armies as though they were certain, unquestionable fact and call people liars for disagreeing with you.
RD’s position seems to be “I’m not crazy, you’re all crazy!”
I'm not crazy and neither are you. The Ukrainiaks believe in their conspiracy theories because it makes sense to simplify things so that Ukraine can be the innocent victim it wants to be.
Putin's answer was deliberate misinformation to give a venire of plausibility to his self serving narrative.
A year after the fact, in documentary about Crimea capture Putin admitted that decision was made at least a week prior the capture of parament many remember from the media. More importantly, it supports what was shown in other sources about Russian troop movement into Crimea and deployment beyond their allowed areas in advance of that event.
Russia campaign was very well coordinated and executed. They have managed to captured strategic locations isolating Crimea from Ukraine, both physically by land/sea/air and by cutting communications lines; they brought significant amount of troops and pined down Ukrainian forces. They have used the mobilization (initially used to obscure troop movement to Crimea) on Ukraine borders in the East to cow Ukraine under fear of further escalation Meanwhile, politically they have secured the parliament, in the dark and under gunpoint they have rushed a new government headed by a loyalist, which gave them a referendum. They also fantastically utilized information warfare in the media (Ukraine media was disrupted)
It is undeniable that Russia used military force to intervene in Ukraine's sovereign territory and just as bad prevent Ukraine to exercise its rights. In what was certainly a scenario prepared in advanced, an outcome Russia warned Ukraine about months before if the choose to to go with EU economic association plan. Interestingly, this also where Russia use of PMC got solidified, understanding the benefit of plausible deniability, ability to circumvent local law and some international conventions, and lack of accountability at home and concern to losses. They make great use of them in Africa right now.
Edited. rm ** forgot I wanted to write about Russia involvement in the east but this is already in the 'too long didn't read' territory so no need.
Yes, misinformation, Putin is lying etc, etc it is irrelevant to my point. For the sake of argument I was assuming that Putin is lying, it is a scenario designed to test the conspiracy theory of 'little green men'.
The only way for Russia to deploy forces in Crimea, is to land troops from ships or planes, which takes days to organise but the Ukrainians can just drive thousands upon thousands of troops into Crimea in mere hours. In history however Crimea was taken by Russia without any fighting at all, which only makes sense if the Russians can get there more quickly than the Ukrainians can, which for geographical reasons they cannot.
Why do the Ukrainians completely lack any kind of defensive advantage in spite of the fact that Crimea is geographically far more inaccessable to the alleged Russian invaders? Why was there no huge amphibious invasion and apocalyptic fighting between the two parties?
Like a few days ago he was all “oh Yanukovych was democratically elected and was overthrown” and goes into more detail about “opposition parliamentarians” overthrowing him today, and completely fails to realize they were also democratically elected.
It’s post-truth denying reality levels of bullshit.
No, it's called not being totally ignorant of constitutional realities. The parliament is not allowed to overthrow the President, as they are seperately elected bodies and neither is superior to the other (we are talking about the American system of division of powers and not the British system of Parliamentary supremacy here).
Rebels are rebels whether they are democratically elected or not. In the same way a mayor does not remain in his office if he rebels against the president simply because he is seperately elected, parliaments lose their legitimacy if they decide to remove their president.
Yet at least the Ukrainians have the honesty to call what they did a Revolution, rather than the Self-Coup BS the Peruvian rebels against Castillo favour.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 07, 2023, 02:39:49 am
I especially like that idiocy of - HOW COULD RUSSIA LAND TROOPS IN CRIMEA?
Completely ignoring that Russia had 10ks troops there since 1991 because of a huge naval base in Sebastopol with the ability to pour many more thousands through the said naval base. It is the level of "if humans evolved from monkeys why there are still monkeys around?"
Post by: Red Diamond on February 07, 2023, 02:56:49 am
1. The eastern regions' locally-elected authorities never chose to separate from Ukraine. They were, however, violently overthrown by armed Russian-integrationists after local administration buildings were stormed by those same integrationists, who, incidentally, had a conspicuous number of connections to Russian government. Whether these connections were Russian in nationality, ethnicity, identity, or other technicalities is irrelevant. There is a straight line between LPR & DPR and the Russian government.
2. The eastern regions did not ever want to join Russia. A majority of each region of the Ukrainian SSR voted for Ukrainian independence in 1991, which was recognized by all involved parties as well as internationally. All polls for years have shown that reversing this vote and joining Russia is widely unpopular.
3. In contrast to the armed separatists, Euromaidan activists did not participate in an armed rebellion, but in protest on the town square after Yanukovich made an unpopular move against the intentions of the elected Parliament, capping off dissatisfaction which had been brewing for years, where they were shot by government security forces. Yanukovich lost almost all his support, signed an agreement with the opposition which included the provision that he would remain President for the time being. He then fled anyway, and the Parliament removed him from his post in absentia in a legal impeachment motion.
1. Said integrationists are rather fast moving. Where are the Ukrainian police, army and so on? No, the integrationists 'stormed the buildings' because they were defending them against attempts by Ukrainian forces to sieze control of the regions.
2. Fair enough, but this is the past, prior to Euromaiden that we are talking about.
3. Mostly accurate, aside from the fact that the armed seperatists aren't actually rebels but folks defending their local government against the rebellion's new government. Yanukovich however was forced to flee because the 'peaceful' Euromaidens tried to murder him.
Everything that happened to Yanukovych was legal, and he left his post on his own initiative (because he understood his political career in Ukraine was already over).
And Yanukovich's corruption was not secret, ambiguous, or moderate in scale. He had a massive mansion estimated to cost $1 billion & a huge estate (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mezhyhirya_Residence), with his own galleon, an ostrich farm, a gold-plated chandelier, lakes of swans. People saw it all with their own eyes after Euromaidan, there are plenty of pictures. Meanwhile the state treasury was nearly empty when he left. Needless to say this is unlikely to be supported by his Presidential salary.
He left because he accepted defeat, that is correct.
I don't know how wealthy he was before becoming President, so nothing you are talking about proves anything at all. Despite having complete access to all documents and archives plus strong motive to do so, the Ukrainians can provide no solid evidence of their former president's actual wrongdoing, which says enough for me to say he did nothing wrong.
Arguing with this guy about events in Ukraine is like arguing with a flat-earther about astronomy or with a young earth creationist about evolution. The same level of dishonesty and\or stupidity.
I especially like that idiocy of - HOW COULD RUSSIA LAND TROOPS IN CRIMEA?
Completely ignoring that Russia had 10k troops there since 1991 because of a huge naval base in Sebastopol with the ability to pour many more thousands through the said naval base. It is the level of "if humans evolved from monkeys why there are still monkeys around?"
Yes, you are losing the argument. Presumably you lost the arguments against flat-earthers and young earth creationists as well.
A naval base does make it considerably easier than it would otherwise be (as in impossible), but still the fact remains said troops are still trapped within Ukrainian territory without any means of reinforcement and supply. I point out that it is strange the Ukrainians made no attempt to resist despite a considerable strategic advantage. The Russian green men appear to have taken the whole place without any kind of a fight.
All the Ukrainians need to do is deploy enough artillary surrounding the naval base and the Russians cannot land anything there at all. So it doesn't matter that the base is coastal at all or whether the Russians have planes or not.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 07, 2023, 03:10:01 am
Quote
A naval base does make it considerably easier than it would otherwise be (as in impossible), but still the fact remains said troops are still trapped within Ukrainian territory without any means of reinforcement and supply. I point out that it is strange the Ukrainians made no attempt to resist despite a considerable strategic advantage. The Russian green men appear to have taken the whole place without any kind of a fight.
It is not strange at all. The Ukrainian army of 2014 was not ready for any kind of resistance, it wasn't anywhere close to being a combat-ready force nor it expected that there will be any need for combat. It also had no idea whose orders to follow because of the ongoing political crisis.
But you know all of that. You are not stupid. You are just dishonest. Calling an evident fact of Russian invasion of Crimea "conspiracy theories" can be done only out of dishonesty. Whatever evidence I'll provide will be discarded just like flat-earther will discard every piece of evidence of the round earth. This is why arguing with you is pointless.
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 07, 2023, 03:25:22 am
Post by: King Zultan on February 07, 2023, 03:31:01 am
Hey man there's no need to be happy about that as not all Russians are Putin loving morons, especially not ones that don't live in Russia.in other news I just spoke to some russian friends who live in singapore and dubai respectively and they both said the same thing; the russian invasion has made the cost of business for russians go up everywhere in everything. One of them tried to get health insurance but had providers ask for a significant premium or a signed statement indicating they acknowledged the invasion of Ukraine was an illegal act of aggression. As they frequently return to Russian and such a statement could get them thrown in prison they opted to instead pay thousands of dollars more for health insurance. The other one tried setting up a business and again, found that things which took his partners a few dollarydoos to do, took him thousands, because anyone who does anything with regulation, compliance or insurance is deathly scared of accidentally working with a Russian:D
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 07, 2023, 03:32:54 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 07, 2023, 04:01:40 am
Are you sure your not the one losing the argument Red Diamond?Hey man there's no need to be happy about that as not all Russians are Putin loving morons, especially not ones that don't live in Russia.in other news I just spoke to some russian friends who live in singapore and dubai respectively and they both said the same thing; the russian invasion has made the cost of business for russians go up everywhere in everything. One of them tried to get health insurance but had providers ask for a significant premium or a signed statement indicating they acknowledged the invasion of Ukraine was an illegal act of aggression. As they frequently return to Russian and such a statement could get them thrown in prison they opted to instead pay thousands of dollars more for health insurance. The other one tried setting up a business and again, found that things which took his partners a few dollarydoos to do, took him thousands, because anyone who does anything with regulation, compliance or insurance is deathly scared of accidentally working with a Russian:D
Note that those Russians value ability to return home more than saying some truth making it rather irrelevant if they support Putin or not. They also aren't poor people.
Also note that, quite likely, those people pay taxes fueling Russian economy and them having extra expenses is a good thing.
So yeah, there is a reason to be happy hearing such news.
Post by: Starver on February 07, 2023, 04:18:55 am
Stop responding to his arguments. If you don't feed him he will get bored and go away.On the whole, I agree, but I just want to suggest...
...that (mainly because of that "Fortunately") Red Diamond should perhaps ask to be renamed as Red Star and openly embrace the whole ideological package rather than trying to preach their own peculiar choice of gospel more ambiguously.Moving on. There will be a "new international center to enable the prosecution of war crimes committed by Russia during its war in Ukraine", European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised.
https://nltimes.nl/2023/02/02/european-office-gather-proof-war-crimes-ukraine-will-set-hague (https://nltimes.nl/2023/02/02/european-office-gather-proof-war-crimes-ukraine-will-set-hague) I hope this means that we don't have to wait 20 - 40 years for any kind of successful investigations and trials.
Fortunately the Russians will take absolutely no notice of it.
Right now, I'm fairly sure RD is too far 'gone' to ever back down from their troll-or-tricked type of 'truth'. The bits I definitely know to be wrong pursuade me that I can safely ignore the rest of the screed. Though I read it anyway, as a courtesy, to be still left underwhelmed.
And I'm sure RD has interesting things to say about other things in the forum. Can't bring to mind what (without looking into it) but it wouldn't be unknown for an apparent monomaniac to have interesting ideas to put in the Suggestions threads, or have an eclectic mix of views on some recent TV show of a rather more fantastical nature, so long as it doesn't become carbon-copy propoganda.
Post by: hector13 on February 07, 2023, 04:21:23 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 07, 2023, 04:53:35 am
"The people are the bearers of sovereignty and the only source of power in Ukraine. The people exercise power directly and through bodies of state power and bodies of local self-government."
The only source of power went on the streets and told a guy to GTFO, by ignoring it he broke a fundamental part of the constitution, period.
Of course, people who view government as something sacred (like Russians) can't understand this concept.
Post by: jipehog on February 07, 2023, 05:54:23 am
I have no idea what you're talking about.
Russia is regarded as revisionist state (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revisionist_state). I am suggesting an hypothetical scenario, in which Asia eclipse the west. Asking if in such a world, the righteous voices here that are from the west would be playing by China's rules, or seek to advance their own interest by any means? or how likely is some sort of Trump to rise to challenge?
Btw in past, the British unhappy with their trade balance in the east, started smuggling opium into China creating millions of addicts and when China forced British to destroy their stash of illegal drugs in China, outraged Britis went to war with China and forced on them extensive surrender conditions, in what China regard as the beginning of the century of humiliation.
QuoteA naval base does make it considerably easier than it would otherwise be (as in impossible), but still the fact remains said troops are still trapped within Ukrainian territory without any means of reinforcement and supply. I point out that it is strange the Ukrainians made no attempt to resist despite a considerable strategic advantage. The Russian green men appear to have taken the whole place without any kind of a fight.
It is not strange at all. The Ukrainian army of 2014 was not ready for any kind of resistance, it wasn't anywhere close to being a combat-ready force nor it expected that there will be any need for combat. It also had no idea whose orders to follow because of the ongoing political crisis.
True. iirc they were in the midst of doing
Also one shouldn't forget the fog of war, at the time there was a lot of uncertainty about what goes on and Russian intentions (that why Russian fake narrative was so effective and disruptive) and Russia's military build up on their border. There is transcript of Ukraine's security council iirc (can't find atm) which plainly speaks about their army inability to do anything and fear of further escalation. And finally that Russia was able to effectively secure the peninsula in a week, like I said very well planed and executed.
Post by: EuchreJack on February 07, 2023, 09:19:08 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 07, 2023, 11:03:40 am
...still no idea what you're talking about.I think he is either Chinese or really likes China (Xiaboo).
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 07, 2023, 02:37:16 pm
I don't think they're a Xiaboo necessarily, just making a point about might makes right that sort of misses.
Post by: Grim Portent on February 07, 2023, 03:04:07 pm
It's not a sensible question to be honest, because I imagine most of us haven't picked a side based on strength anyway, but rather ideals that are more commonly protected by Western powers than others.
Post by: jipehog on February 07, 2023, 04:03:46 pm
I mean, I would play according to my principles which inform what I think is right.
We all think we right, the question is what are you going to do about it.
If China eclipse USA successfully challenging its privileged position in the global word order, reaping the benefits and becoming more influential in your life (e.g. digital dictatorship). Would you advocate playing by [their] international rules or seek to advance your own interest by any means? and what position do you think your country as whole might take?
This is also rough barebones of Putin's narrative. inb4 the outrage, narrative just is, it doesn't have to be right.
Post by: Egan_BW on February 07, 2023, 04:30:56 pm
Truth is relative.No.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 07, 2023, 04:43:33 pm
While it's hard to argue that an objective reality exists, one would have to be living under a rock not to see that humans are terrible at agreeing what it is.Truth is relative.No.
Post by: Quarque on February 07, 2023, 04:55:27 pm
Explained in detail in "the postmodern hell of Russian propaganda".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_j6Vg7yLx54 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_j6Vg7yLx54)
Again I wonder, would you have sided with Hitler if his empire would have been dominant today? That's where this line of reasoning takes you..
Post by: hector13 on February 07, 2023, 05:25:22 pm
While it's hard to argue that an objective reality exists, one would have to be living under a rock not to see that humans are terrible at agreeing what it is.Truth is relative.No.
That doesn’t mean truth is relative, it just means people are in varying degrees of denial regarding it.
Post by: Starver on February 07, 2023, 07:07:47 pm
Post by: jipehog on February 07, 2023, 11:05:56 pm
Truth is relative.No.
How do you define 'truth'?
Post by: hector13 on February 07, 2023, 11:06:57 pm
Truth is relative.No.
How do you define 'truth'?
Actuality.
Post by: Quarque on February 08, 2023, 03:41:13 am
How do you define 'truth'?How about this definition: "awfully inconvenient for Putin".
The message you are spreading is exactly the message of Russian propaganda. You think a war is a war? You think your brother dying in Ukraine for stupid reasons is bad? Well guess what, truth is relative, you can't really trust anything you see, hear or think. Guess you'd better leave thinking to Putin.
Post by: King Zultan on February 08, 2023, 04:40:59 am
Post by: Magmacube_tr on February 08, 2023, 05:26:56 am
We ought to base our understanding of events on observable reality. It is cold and detached, but it is the only viable way I see us getting a complete picture.
Post by: jipehog on February 08, 2023, 07:07:38 am
Truth is relative.No.
How do you define 'truth'?
Actuality.
The actuality is that what we regard as true vary greatly between individuals and society as whole. You can easily see it socio-economic context, legal frameworks (the law isn't fair and impartial that younger selves like to believe but social construct balancing many parameters), politics (e.g. USA elections voice the contrast between people truth and beliefs), and moral values on anything from abortion, capital crime, asthenia to rules of engagement, international affairs etc.
Mind you just because truth depends on many parameters and context, doesn't mean that every single conceptual idea is as valid as any other and there are many ideals that are universally shared and we all strive to, however, circumstances dictate available paths forward.
I don't get the point he's trying to make, also why is he arguing about this whole truth thing?To be honest, I don't remember. I was irked by few righteous comments some days ago and there was nothing more interesting to talk about, but then... I got distracted and later in hurry to close the tab didn't notice the two words.
Regardless, it is good thing to remember, and is as universal concept as far as I am concerned wither we talk about Russia\China\USA\Whatever. There are people that have trouble with such ideas or have an emotional response to them as they perceive it as justification, craving black and white clarity and certainty.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 08, 2023, 08:00:43 am
Quote
The actuality is that what we regard as true vary greatly between individuals and society as whole. You can easily see it socio-economic context, legal frameworks (the law isn't fair and impartial that younger selves like to believe but social construct balancing many parameters), politics (e.g. USA elections voice the contrast between people truth and beliefs), and moral values on anything from abortion, capital crime, asthenia to rules of engagement, international affairs etc.
Earth is rotating around the Sun
Show me how this truth is relative. How it depends on moral values or socio-economic context
Post by: McTraveller on February 08, 2023, 08:54:37 am
Spoiler: pedantry (click to show/hide)
. There are some frames of reference in which Earth revolves around the sun, but not all; the most true statement is something like "the sequence of measurements of distance and orientation between the sun and Earth with respect to a parameter called time can be described by these equations..."Post by: Starver on February 08, 2023, 11:36:32 am
Spoiler: My own analysis (click to show/hide)
TL;DR:, it's more a fact that it does (terminology allowing) than that it doesn't, and you need to use a proven form of fine-tuning to say otherwise. You can't just declare it otherwise because it's more in tune with your chosen message.
Post by: EuchreJack on February 08, 2023, 12:22:16 pm
To be honest, I don't remember. I was irked by few righteous comments some days ago and there was nothing more interesting to talk about, but then... I got distracted and later in hurry to close the tab didn't notice the two words.
It's ok, I have certainly done that sort of thing in other threads, (generally AmeriPol).
It helps to focus on saying what you think, rather than "friendly debating" with your fellow forumites. This thread in particular exists for individuals to express their thoughts about the war in Ukraine.
And yes, we all blame Putin. That is our "bias". We're not gonna do any "critical thinking" about how anyone else is responsible, sorry.
Folks, I think we're done here. Please move your philosophical debate somewhere else. There are plenty of threads for that sort of thing. Thanks much!
Post by: Red Diamond on February 08, 2023, 01:00:54 pm
It is not strange at all. The Ukrainian army of 2014 was not ready for any kind of resistance, it wasn't anywhere close to being a combat-ready force nor it expected that there will be any need for combat. It also had no idea whose orders to follow because of the ongoing political crisis.
But you know all of that. You are not stupid. You are just dishonest. Calling an evident fact of Russian invasion of Crimea "conspiracy theories" can be done only out of dishonesty. Whatever evidence I'll provide will be discarded just like flat-earther will discard every piece of evidence of the round earth. This is why arguing with you is pointless.
You seem to understand the actual issue, I underlined the bit of your response where you do. The exact same situation exists BTW with the Russian army, it is also unready for combat.
The evident fact is that there was no Russian invasion of Crimea because no land route exists between Ukraine and Russia for such an invasion to occur thing. Any Russian invasion of Crimea would be a Normandy landings type amphibious affair, not the smooth and mostly bloodless takeover of Crimea that actual history witnesses. It would also likely end in as humiliating and costly a defeat as was the recent invasion of Kiev.
The little green men is a conspiracy theory. I say that because that is a fact and it fails for the same reason that conspiracy theories usually fail; the little green men possess preternatural ability to move and conquer territory which the actual Russian forces fail to demonstrate; these are sluggish and deeply incompetent in their offensive operations. Putin could certain do with some 'little green men' in his present war against Ukraine but unfortunately for him they are a conspiracy theorists fantasy.
Are you sure your not the one losing the argument Red Diamond?
Of course not. In an argument, as in a battle or a war the sides that runs away and stops fighting is the side that lost. :)
My usual answer to that bullshit of "Yanukovich was removed illegally" is quoting 5th article of the Ukrainian constitution
"The people are the bearers of sovereignty and the only source of power in Ukraine. The people exercise power directly and through bodies of state power and bodies of local self-government."
The only source of power went on the streets and told a guy to GTFO, by ignoring it he broke a fundamental part of the constitution, period.
Of course, people who view government as something sacred (like Russians) can't understand this concept.
Here we have a fine example of Western Satanism on display. In the lies of Hollywood fantasy rebellion removes wicked tyrants from power, in historical reality rebellion is most effective against merciful, just, forgiving rulers because it is not a war but rather a game of chicken where whoever is continously able or willing to escalate wins outright. By process of a form of 'natural selection' the result of constant rebellions in a nation is the rise of merciless tyrants because said tyrants are the hardest form of ruler to rebel against while benevolant rulers are the easiest. Yanukavich was the latter kind of ruler, therefore he was overthrown despite having enough popular support to be elected.
Where Strongpoint did you hallucinate "The People" in Ukrainian constitution to mean "The Rebellion"?. In a Democracy the Highest Authority is supposed to be the People's will expressed by means of an election, then it follows that anyone who rebels *against* an elected authority rebels against the People. This applies even to authorities seperately elected by the people, for they are the representives *of* the People and not the People itself. A Parliament cannot rebel against a seperately elected President, because the People elected the President as well; so they are therefore rebelling against the Highest Authority. The Highest Authority is with the President and the Rebellion is with the Parliament, since the latter is disobeying the people by seeking to change the elected ruler without a scheduled election.
This why Western Satanists are not Democrats, the former do not *actually* believe in the People ruling as an Authority over lesser authorities. They believe in the Rebellion and will support said Rebellion even if it against the People's manifest will. Just as Authority is sacred you see, Rebellion is diabolical, so true to their name the Western Satanists do not seek to rule but instead to render powerless all Authority so that the threat of the Rebellion can permenantly shackle all regimes whatsoever allowing them to do whatever wicked deeds they please without punishment.
Post by: hector13 on February 08, 2023, 01:16:00 pm
*reads more*
A-a-are you the Chosen One? The idiot troll who brings us conspiracies so ridiculous they entertain rather than frustrate?
Tell me more if the Western Satanists. Are they paedophiles? Where does their Authority stem from if they hate it so? What of these Rebels they support? What if the Rebels rebel against their Authority (which of course doesn’t exist because authority is bad)?
Post by: Ganondworf on February 08, 2023, 01:18:21 pm
...
... Western Satanists ...
... well, actually, no. Effort would be wasted.
Post by: hector13 on February 08, 2023, 01:26:01 pm
Post by: Egan_BW on February 08, 2023, 02:53:46 pm
Of course not. In an argument, as in a battle or a war the sides that runs away and stops fighting is the side that lost. :)
Depends on strategic considerations. If your objective is to take and hold ground, then retreating is defeat. But if the goal is simply to inflict pain on the enemy, then performing a successful raid and then scattering before you're overwhelmed counts as a victory.
An argument has its own strategic dimension. If your goal is simply to dominate the opponent and get the last word for your own satisfaction, then persistence will reward you. But if you want to accomplish anything deeper than that you'll have to think differently. If someone's shown themselves to be saying nonsense, it doesn't really matter how much nonsense they say because the audience will soon stop listening to them. In that way, a few words can defeat many.
Post by: EuchreJack on February 08, 2023, 05:09:17 pm
Although "Western Satanists" does amuse me.
Post by: Egan_BW on February 08, 2023, 05:53:27 pm
Post by: Superdorf on February 08, 2023, 06:03:19 pm
Yeahhh. This feels awfully relevant right now. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmVkJvieaOA)
Post by: jipehog on February 08, 2023, 06:12:39 pm
Praise Stan.Which one? Hopefully not Russia-stan.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 08, 2023, 06:18:24 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on February 08, 2023, 08:14:09 pm
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
I start loving this "one who stopped talking last in the argument has won it " guy. He must be very successful in life.
I am very not surprised that this guy is a hardcore theist because he spews their logic. For them
1) Laws are not tools but something sacred. If it is written on paper that President must be removed in X way, he must be removed in X way no matter the situation
2) In the same time, any part of reality that contradicts your beliefs can be safely ignored no matter how evident it is. If your side breaks laws it doesn't count
3) Truth is irrelevant as long as you make your opponent silent. It is winning the discussion. The best tool is to execute the other side of an argument, luckily theists don't have this option in most countries
Coincidently it is also a Russian way of thinking, even if most of them don't really follow Christianity or other religion in their daily lives
_________
PS, yes Red Diamond, I am a satanist(well, by the twisted logic of people like you when satanist=atheist). You can go fuck with whatever brand of an imaginary almighty friend in your head, who tells you how awesome, genius, and moral you are. This imaginary friend is the only person who sees you this way. Here, in the real world, you are a laughing stock and a loser who lacks basic empathy
Post by: hector13 on February 08, 2023, 09:43:03 pm
Might get a new spin on it though I guess.
Post by: Superdorf on February 08, 2023, 09:57:10 pm
I am very not surprised that this guy is a hardcore theist because he spews their logic. For them
1) Laws are not tools but something sacred. If it is written on paper that President must be removed in X way, he must be removed in X way no matter the situation
2) In the same time, any part of reality that contradicts your beliefs can be safely ignored no matter how evident it is. If your side breaks laws it doesn't count
3) Truth is irrelevant as long as you make your opponent silent. It is winning the discussion. The best tool is to execute the other side of an argument, luckily theists don't have this option in most countries
Coincidently it is also a Russian way of thinking, even if most of them don't really follow Christianity or other religion in their daily lives
Er.
A couple points, then, from a Christian across the pond:
1) Divine law is sacred, but it also exists for the benefit of the people, not the other way around. When applying holy law to a situation, the human context is still important.
2) Faith is sacred, but spiritual and material reality should work in concord with one another - the faithful are still very responsible for the things they do in this life.
3) Forced conversions, executions, etc. are wrong, period. How is anyone supposed to convert a dead man? What good is a confession of faith made under duress? I'm aware such things exist in history, and it saddens me mostly. The Body of Christ should be better than that.
Let's not make this about every God-fearing person ever, please. Hypocrisy is a real danger, but many of us are still trying our best out here.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 08, 2023, 10:51:03 pm
Note that I used "hardcore theist" for a reason. Not all theists are what I described, ones who throw the word "satanists" around usually are.I am very not surprised that this guy is a hardcore theist because he spews their logic. For them
1) Laws are not tools but something sacred. If it is written on paper that President must be removed in X way, he must be removed in X way no matter the situation
2) In the same time, any part of reality that contradicts your beliefs can be safely ignored no matter how evident it is. If your side breaks laws it doesn't count
3) Truth is irrelevant as long as you make your opponent silent. It is winning the discussion. The best tool is to execute the other side of an argument, luckily theists don't have this option in most countries
Coincidently it is also a Russian way of thinking, even if most of them don't really follow Christianity or other religion in their daily lives
Er.
A couple points, then, from a Christian across the pond:
1) Divine law is sacred, but it also exists for the benefit of the people, not the other way around. When applying holy law to a situation, the human context is still important.
2) Faith is sacred, but spiritual and material reality should work in concord with one another - the faithful are still very responsible for the things they do in this life.
3) Forced conversions, executions, etc. are wrong, period. How is anyone supposed to convert a dead man? What good is a confession of faith made under duress? I'm aware such things exist in history, and it saddens me mostly. The Body of Christ should be better than that.
Let's not make this about every God-fearing person ever, please. Hypocrisy is a real danger, but many of us are still trying our best out here.
And I am not interested in really starting THIS discussion here because even if I am not only an atheist but also an anti-theist (a person who believes that religions are harmful to society and it is a moral duty of a decent person to oppose them), this thread is really not the place for it.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 08, 2023, 11:04:14 pm
Some stuff I heard about the last few days from people who are actually there. Note that this is anecdotal.
1) Russia has already started a very noticeable offensive on all of the frontline in Donbas. They push, and we are forced to move back. Most likely we'll have to leave Bakhmut and the surrounding areas soon..
2) Our casualties are really-really high, but mostly WIA and evacuation work well. (again, remember, anecdotal info)
3) Russians reenact WW2 with human wave attacks with total disregard of human life in their attacks. People from there don't believe official Ukrainian daily estimates of 500-1000 dead Russians per day believing those to be too low. But I personally think it is wishful thinking
4) People are really exhausted and in a dire need of rotation. It worries me a lot. We start experiencing serious shortages of fresh manpower and I think we'll have to move to more forceful conscription which is never a good thing
5) My contact from the Zaporizhia area says that they are expecting a major offensive there, too
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 08, 2023, 11:13:55 pm
Post by: King Zultan on February 09, 2023, 03:55:08 am
Also the whole "Western Satanist" thing is interesting and he should tell us more about it.
Post by: martinuzz on February 09, 2023, 04:00:30 am
The "rotates around the Sun" made me twitch, too, but don't forget Strongpoint has ESL, though that often makes it better than someone with it as a mother tongue[1].Not to be a non native nitpick, but isn't it 'orbits the sun' (or 'flies in an orbit around the sun') instead of 'orbits around the sun'?
....
The Earth rotates (most easily shown by setting up and observing a Foucault's pendulum), and also orbits around (the common barycentre of!) the Sun.
Post by: jipehog on February 09, 2023, 04:34:43 am
I am very not surprised that this guy is a hardcore theist because he spews their logic. For them
[..]
Coincidently it is also a Russian way of thinking, even if most of them don't really follow Christianity or other religion in their daily lives
Not sure about the details (wasn't following red dragon posts) but what you suggest can be copy&pasted to USA politics. Also not theist logic per se, there are atheist who believe with religious fervor in their truth, and are intolerant and zealous in pursuit of their goals and those who blaspheme against their scared values as Christians in modern times.
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 09, 2023, 04:57:15 am
(wasn't following red dragon posts)
You're conflating my username with the Russian troll's username. :V
Post by: Devastator on February 09, 2023, 05:18:53 am
They're also getting absolutely smashed in massive quantities, and quite frankly, are irreplaceable guys who were carefully gathered together and preserved for six months.
People talk about Russia being able to absorb endless casualties, but these units were saved for this offensive and they're dying really really fast. You're not wrong to be worried, but the Russians dying right now are ones that were preserved too carefully to be meaningless.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 09, 2023, 05:45:28 am
I changed my mind, don't ban this guy Toady, he can be our court jester.
Post by: martinuzz on February 09, 2023, 05:59:07 am
Western Satanists. I'm dead.Probably best to just ban him in his own best interest.
I changed my mind, don't ban this guy Toady, he can be our court jester.
Please don't laugh at the guy. Pointing and laughing at psychiatric patients is very unkind, even if their delusions are offensive.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 09, 2023, 06:01:00 am
Heh. Why I am not surprised? Rather unpleasant news, we'll need to find new means for controlling stuff like naval drones
Post by: Starver on February 09, 2023, 07:29:44 am
Not to be a non native nitpick, but isn't it 'orbits the sun' (or 'flies in an orbit around the sun') instead of 'orbits around the sun'?An arguable point.
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
TL;DR; some might feel the "around" to be superfluous, and I might never miss it if absent and there are no confounding issues about its absence. But I don't think it hurts, given that you can use non-"around" clauses of similar contextualisation in the same place. Good question, though.
Post by: jipehog on February 09, 2023, 08:37:26 am
He's dyslexic. Should read 'Santa'.
Damn imperialist (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xw7SvKe2IhI) ;)
Also Can Ukraine take back Crimea? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh9l3s8-jQ0)
Post by: martinuzz on February 09, 2023, 09:04:26 am
"It orbits." "What (not where) does it orbit?" "The Sun" (The where question would be more appropriate to ask when curious about it's apostasis, hypostasis, and inclination)
When used as a noun however, it becomes less apparent, for the question would become
"It is in an orbit." "It is in an orbit around what?" "The Sun". In this case, the word around is necessary to complete the sentence.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 09, 2023, 09:53:08 am
"Satanist children" is something that is new even for me, who is beyond used to being called a Satanist.
_______
The funniest part - this church is completely legal in Ukraine
Edit: found it on Twitter with English subtitles - https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1623274200684285952
Post by: Superdorf on February 09, 2023, 10:50:57 am
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 09, 2023, 11:08:01 am
Post by: Jrleebus on February 09, 2023, 11:50:00 am
My linguistic antennae would consider the use of the word 'around', when 'orbit' is used as a verb to be a pleonasm, since orbiting already implies circular or elliptical motion.it throws itself at the sun and misses
"It orbits." "What (not where) does it orbit?" "The Sun" (The where question would be more appropriate to ask when curious about it's apostasis, hypostasis, and inclination)
When used as a noun however, it becomes less apparent, for the question would become
"It is in an orbit." "It is in an orbit around what?" "The Sun". In this case, the word around is necessary to complete the sentence.
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 09, 2023, 03:09:24 pm
Edit: found it on Twitter with English subtitles - https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1623274200684285952
Western Satanism is when children exist, but glorious Russkiy Mir is when children die.
Post by: jipehog on February 09, 2023, 03:10:13 pm
More recently, it been used to provide a better unifying narrative to fight for than tzar Putin's imperialism, in similar fashion to the 'Russian mir' it frames it as war of values/cultures playing on the pervading attitudes regarding pluralism and the decline of conservative values. On several occasions Putin began his addresses to the nations with jibes about ~ westren rich gay people from villas telling them what todo. This framing as fight for conservatism (and coastal elites) is something that many in USA right took too, just as the framing as anti USA hegemony is something that many in China took to.
Meanwhile this is just the "good ol' " war. Whether you like or not, black and white narratives and dehumanization helps to break down moral inhibitions and morally disengage from the horrors of war, and Soldiers who have come under fire often find God.
Post by: jipehog on February 09, 2023, 04:10:28 pm
Western Satanism is when children exist, but glorious Russkiy Mir is when children die.That's a cheap shot, you can similarly use Iraq's half a million dead as an example of western freedom
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 09, 2023, 04:29:54 pm
Praise Stan.Yo Zelensky I wrote you but you still aint callin
I left soldiers in Donbas there probably was a popular uprising or something you must not have got em
Sometimes I invade a little sloppy when I plot em
Post by: jipehog on February 09, 2023, 05:03:28 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 09, 2023, 05:06:11 pm
Western Satanism is when children exist, but glorious Russkiy Mir is when children die.That's a cheap shot, you can similarly use Iraq's half a million dead as an example of western freedom
Did you watch what I responded to? I'm merely relaying the message. Bring it up with "Putin's army is God's army, there can be no mercy for spawn of Satan be they old ladies or children" priest.
Post by: jipehog on February 09, 2023, 05:19:46 pm
Post by: nenjin on February 09, 2023, 05:50:04 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on February 09, 2023, 06:25:06 pm
It's like the longer this collective mental illness goes on, the closer Russian fascists and American fascists start seeming identical. Stick a funny hat on Alex Jones and teach him to speak Russian and they'd be interchangeable.Where do you think the American Fascists are getting their money?
Post by: EuchreJack on February 09, 2023, 06:28:44 pm
SpaceX has restricted the Ukrainian military's ability to use Starlink satellite internet to control drones in the war zone, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell has said. She stated that SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet "was never intended to be used as a weapon".
Heh. Why I am not surprised? Rather unpleasant news, we'll need to find new means for controlling stuff like naval drones
Found the CNN story about it. I hope Gwynne Shotwell is getting good money from E.sucks for taking all the blame.
Story: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/02/09/politics/spacex-ukrainian-troops-satellite-technology/index.html
I just figured out why she had to give the news instead of Elon. Their story is that they were too dumb to figure out what Ukraine would do with Starlink. Of Course Elon could never say that.
Post by: jipehog on February 09, 2023, 06:41:17 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on February 09, 2023, 07:05:52 pm
Keep in mind that USA is in space race with China and there are starlink alternatives in the works, the more Starlink possible military applications are emphasized the more it would be treated in the world as huawei in USA.I have no idea what you're saying.
Americans LOVE the weaponization of their American companies.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 09, 2023, 07:58:02 pm
I have no idea what you're saying.Companies want to be able to operate on foreign markets. When a company starts being perceived as a political/military tool of one government or another, it may no longer be welcome in markets opposed to the government in question. Like Huawei isn't in the US for those very reasons.
Post by: EuchreJack on February 09, 2023, 08:17:23 pm
That sadly makes sense and explains so much.I have no idea what you're saying.Companies want to be able to operate on foreign markets. When a company starts being perceived as a political/military tool of one government or another, it may no longer be welcome in markets opposed to the government in question. Like Huawei isn't in the US for those very reasons.
And my damn government thinks corporations are people...
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 09, 2023, 08:43:05 pm
Post by: hector13 on February 09, 2023, 08:54:14 pm
Post by: Devastator on February 09, 2023, 11:06:25 pm
Post by: Telgin on February 09, 2023, 11:59:38 pm
I haven't really been tracking the current Russian offensive but what I did read sounded pretty bad for the Ukrainian defenders. I'm hoping for the best, but don't have the same level of confidence that Ukraine will be able to keep the Russians at bay or reclaim all of its territory that I had a few months ago.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 10, 2023, 12:17:29 am
What's happened to the Russian patriarchate in recent months is horrifying, and deeply un-Christian. I've mentioned before how tragic it is that people from Orthodox churches are going to war against each other.
In recent what? It is like this for a very, very long time... This version, which was recreated by Stalin, is one of the worst and most immoral Christian large-scale cults that ever existed.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 10, 2023, 12:26:17 am
I wonder what the current estimates are for Russia's remaining functional tanks. The estimates I've seen put them at having lost about 3,260 tanks so far, which is mind boggling. But those same estimates claim Russia only had about 3,300 to start with, so something clearly isn't adding up. I'm guessing they just have a lot more in some functional shape than that.
At the start of the war, Russia did have around 3K in active service but also additional 10K+ tanks in reserve and this not counting old stuff like T-64 or T-62 which found their way to the frontline.
Post by: King Zultan on February 10, 2023, 04:10:24 am
Hey where's Red Diamond at I need more conspiracy goodness!
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 10, 2023, 04:41:42 am
Somehow missed this.Western Satanists. I'm dead.Probably best to just ban him in his own best interest.
I changed my mind, don't ban this guy Toady, he can be our court jester.
Please don't laugh at the guy. Pointing and laughing at psychiatric patients is very unkind, even if their delusions are offensive.
He's not mentally ill, he's just a zombie or a troll.
Post by: Starver on February 10, 2023, 05:56:13 am
At the rate Russian tanks get destroyed it seems like they'd be better off dropping them out of plane onto Ukraine.There's always https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winged_tank
(I also once thoroughly researched and mocked up the (rather fanciful) specs for a V-Weapon that was a full intercontinental manned tank delivery system for landing shock-troops (as elements of an armoured brigade) in Washington DC. "Panzerwerfer des Weltraumtigers", or something. For very, very late WW2, say 1948 or thereabouts, after Me 264s and/or 462s had been tried for a while.)
Post by: Red Diamond on February 10, 2023, 06:27:01 am
Depends on strategic considerations. If your objective is to take and hold ground, then retreating is defeat. But if the goal is simply to inflict pain on the enemy, then performing a successful raid and then scattering before you're overwhelmed counts as a victory.
An argument has its own strategic dimension. If your goal is simply to dominate the opponent and get the last word for your own satisfaction, then persistence will reward you. But if you want to accomplish anything deeper than that you'll have to think differently. If someone's shown themselves to be saying nonsense, it doesn't really matter how much nonsense they say because the audience will soon stop listening to them. In that way, a few words can defeat many.
The goal here is just to inform the Ukrainiaks regarding the ignorance of the situation in Ukraine there position is based in. 99% of the time a Ukrainian supporters position is usually based some combination of a conspiracy theory (conspiracy theories involving Russia are totally fine in Western Media) involving Russian agents/secret armies and Hollywood style dualistic narratives involving a valiant, heroic Ukraine and a wicked, evil Russia.
Your aim as a Pro-Russian is simply to point out the actual historical facts of the situation and once you have done this, your Ukrainiak will gradually deflate a bit like how a balloon pops when you prick it with a pin. Ukraine's false halo depends upon ignorance in order to exist and for this reason most Ukrainiaks are enthusiastic bullies and censors. An advantage of the deflation process is they become less censorious the less fanatical they are owing to knowing facts which contradict the core fantasy.
Just because you continue posting asinine BS doesn’t mean you’re winning.
*reads more*
A-a-are you the Chosen One? The idiot troll who brings us conspiracies so ridiculous they entertain rather than frustrate?
Tell me more if the Western Satanists. Are they paedophiles? Where does their Authority stem from if they hate it so? What of these Rebels they support? What if the Rebels rebel against their Authority (which of course doesn’t exist because authority is bad)?
That wasn't a serious point but a passing observation regarding belief structure Hector 13. There are no real devils involved in this, unless you want to believe that there are. In any case, in case you didn't already know, Satan is a symbol to Satanists, not something they literally believe in. A symbol of what however? Is it a symbol of rebellion against God? But they don't believe in no gods neither. What then is the Satan symbol they identify with a symbol of?
The symbol of Satan is an archetypal figure of the rebel against authority. Western culture is presently overrun with archetypal rebel figures and these figures are glorified, as are their rebellions, while the downsides of rebellion as were very much in evident in 2014 Ukraine are. So we can quite confidently say that modern Western culture is Western Satanic, totally overrun with biased cultural works that glorify rebellion and demonise authority; Star Wars can be seen as a work of Western Satanism (excepting the Prequels, which is why they are hated :) ).
The Western Satanism is a name given by myself (and Putin) to the cultural glorification of rebellion which leads to ridiculous statements like the one you were making, where you literally argued that the Ukrainian constitution allowed a rebellion to overthrow their elected president. Any normal person, not highly enamoured of Western Satanism will logically conclude that anyone who rebels against a democratically elected leader serving his elected term is not representing the People.
Not however the Western Satanist. The Western Satanism supports Democracy because it undermines the authority of rulers, not because he believes the people should rule directly or through their representatives. So when somebody rebels against democracy itself, the Western Satanist is always on board because the People to them is a symbol for Satan/Archetypal Rebel, which does not fit with the meek image of the voter filing papers in the ballot booth.
The end result is nonsense like when Hillary Clinton went on about how they needed to interve in Libya because Gaddhaffi was going to massacre his people in Benghazi (he was winning). Someone who isn't a Western Satanist pretending to be a Democrat would not identify rebels against a Libyan regime as the People of Libya and imagine a ruler crushing a rebellion as somehow the annihilation of the People itself.
Actually the whole thing reminds me of folks wearing Che Guevara/Anarchy symbols teashirts even though they ain't actually Communists/Anarchists.
Hey Red Diamond can I have some of what you're smoking because it sounds like some good shit.
Also the whole "Western Satanist" thing is interesting and he should tell us more about it.
It isn't really about Satan, unless Christianity is true in which case it very much is. :)
There is a game that depicts Western Satanism's strategic operation pretty much spot on and this game is actually Liberal Crime Squad, because there the LCV do not actually ever overthrow or get elected the US government however well they do. Western Satanism (ideally) does not have to rule and create a Western Satanist regime, but instead to preside over a state of fear and intimidation directed against a powerless authority. Said authority will both give the Western Satanists whatever they happen to want but also allow them to freely do whatever they wish to whomsoever they wish.
Euromaiden is like that. The reason to overthrow Yanukavich is not because they could not win the next election, indeed they even forced him to back down from his chosen course without removing him from office. The reason is solely because of fear that overthrowing a leader will create in subsequent leaders, even if said leaders actually supported the rebellion against the previous leaders. Thanks to overthrowing Yanukavich, all subsequent leaders of Ukraine fear to ever defy the Western Satanists ever again. Removing a leader peacefully and legally does not create any terror, so it is useless to them.
This explains the mystery of why, despite the obvious threat of utter ruin that a war with Russia represents, the Ukrainians made no concessions to Russia to avoid war. The leaders of Ukraine fear the Euromaiden/Western Satanist faction more than they fear the Russians. If said faction demands no concessions, then no concessions will be made because whoever makes them will be brutally removed from power.
To return to the "Real Satan" aspect everyone is so interested in, the literal teachings of Christianity are that *all* rulers rule by divine sanction. This makes Christianity an inplacable foe of Western Satanism, since there is no room there for any kind of glorification of rebellion but rather it is clearly demonized. Destroying Christianity altogether or keeping their followers in the dark regarding the actual teachings of the religion against rebellion is fundermental to their strength. For obvious reasons a population propogandized by Star Wars style cultural narratives is far better for them than one propogandized by a religion authority cult, since the former is initially biased towards the rebellion while the latter is biased against the rebellion.
The easier it is to create a rebellion, the more frightened the rulers are and the more frightened they are, the more power the Western Satanists have.
At the rate Russian tanks get destroyed it seems like they'd be better off dropping them out of plane onto Ukraine.
Hey where's Red Diamond at I need more conspiracy goodness!
It is your position that spreads conspiracy theories about secret Russian invasions. No conspiracy theories over here at all, though maybe I should find some just to entertain as part of my new position as Court Jester.
The Church have been used for a long time. Early on --when Ukraine was still subordinate of Russian Orthodox Church-- it was used to promote the Russian narrative and the necessity of Ukraine's geopolitical alignment with Moscow.
More recently, it been used to provide a better unifying narrative to fight for than tzar Putin's imperialism, in similar fashion to the 'Russian mir' it frames it as war of values/cultures playing on the pervading attitudes regarding pluralism and the decline of conservative values. On several occasions Putin began his addresses to the nations with jibes about ~ westren rich gay people from villas telling them what todo. This framing as fight for conservatism (and coastal elites) is something that many in USA right took too, just as the framing as anti USA hegemony is something that many in China took to.
Meanwhile this is just the "good ol' " war. Whether you like or not, black and white narratives and dehumanization helps to break down moral inhibitions and morally disengage from the horrors of war, and Soldiers who have come under fire often find God.
I feel that is how the whole fantasy about secret Russian armies invading Ukraine back in 2014 came about. The Ukrainian government's commanders would tell their soldiers they were fighting secret Russians in order to hide from them the fact they were really fighting their own people.
In Crimea which the Russians *actually* annexed and *actually* deployed Russian troops with full colours, the Ukrainian forces backed down entirely. I feel any secret Russian troops must have made a mistake by removing their insignias.
Post by: jipehog on February 10, 2023, 06:43:55 am
I wonder what the current estimates are for Russia's remaining functional tanks. The estimates I've seen put them at having lost about 3,260 tanks so far, which is mind boggling. But those same estimates claim Russia only had about 3,300 to start with, so something clearly isn't adding up. I'm guessing they just have a lot more in some functional shape than that.
Why thou, will your opinion change if you knew for a fact that only have 100 or 3000 tanks left?
Otherwise, I don't track the daily changes either, they can be interesting but overall unimportant in the grand scheme (We had many month in which Russia seem to be pushing forward with full speed ahead but it turned out strategically they have been in neutral all along) As for predicting the future, I have been wrong on many occasions, some of the biggest initial perceptions I glad to get rid off is that Russia can't lose and that this will be a short war.
The goal here is just to inform [..] regarding the ignorance of the situation in Ukraine there position is based in. 99% of the time a [..] position is usually based some combination of a conspiracy theory [..] An advantage of the deflation process is they become less censorious the less fanatical they are owing to knowing facts which contradict the core fantasy.This post describes you perfectly, who has shown to be willfully ignorant of the situation and leans into fancy slogans, and contrary to your idea no amount of contradicting evidence seem to deflate your fantasy.
Post by: KittyTac on February 10, 2023, 06:56:44 am
Depends on strategic considerations. If your objective is to take and hold ground, then retreating is defeat. But if the goal is simply to inflict pain on the enemy, then performing a successful raid and then scattering before you're overwhelmed counts as a victory.
An argument has its own strategic dimension. If your goal is simply to dominate the opponent and get the last word for your own satisfaction, then persistence will reward you. But if you want to accomplish anything deeper than that you'll have to think differently. If someone's shown themselves to be saying nonsense, it doesn't really matter how much nonsense they say because the audience will soon stop listening to them. In that way, a few words can defeat many.
The goal here is just to inform the Ukrainiaks regarding the ignorance of the situation in Ukraine there position is based in. 99% of the time a Ukrainian supporters position is usually based some combination of a conspiracy theory (conspiracy theories involving Russia are totally fine in Western Media) involving Russian agents/secret armies and Hollywood style dualistic narratives involving a valiant, heroic Ukraine and a wicked, evil Russia.
Your aim as a Pro-Russian is simply to point out the actual historical facts of the situation and once you have done this, your Ukrainiak will gradually deflate a bit like how a balloon pops when you prick it with a pin. Ukraine's false halo depends upon ignorance in order to exist and for this reason most Ukrainiaks are enthusiastic bullies and censors. An advantage of the deflation process is they become less censorious the less fanatical they are owing to knowing facts which contradict the core fantasy.Just because you continue posting asinine BS doesn’t mean you’re winning.
*reads more*
A-a-are you the Chosen One? The idiot troll who brings us conspiracies so ridiculous they entertain rather than frustrate?
Tell me more if the Western Satanists. Are they paedophiles? Where does their Authority stem from if they hate it so? What of these Rebels they support? What if the Rebels rebel against their Authority (which of course doesn’t exist because authority is bad)?
That wasn't a serious point but a passing observation regarding belief structure Hector 13. There are no real devils involved in this, unless you want to believe that there are. In any case, in case you didn't already know, Satan is a symbol to Satanists, not something they literally believe in. A symbol of what however? Is it a symbol of rebellion against God? But they don't believe in no gods neither. What then is the Satan symbol they identify with a symbol of?
The symbol of Satan is an archetypal figure of the rebel against authority. Western culture is presently overrun with archetypal rebel figures and these figures are glorified, as are their rebellions, while the downsides of rebellion as were very much in evident in 2014 Ukraine are. So we can quite confidently say that modern Western culture is Western Satanic, totally overrun with biased cultural works that glorify rebellion and demonise authority; Star Wars can be seen as a work of Western Satanism (excepting the Prequels, which is why they are hated :) ).
The Western Satanism is a name given by myself (and Putin) to the cultural glorification of rebellion which leads to ridiculous statements like the one you were making, where you literally argued that the Ukrainian constitution allowed a rebellion to overthrow their elected president. Any normal person, not highly enamoured of Western Satanism will logically conclude that anyone who rebels against a democratically elected leader serving his elected term is not representing the People.
Not however the Western Satanist. The Western Satanism supports Democracy because it undermines the authority of rulers, not because he believes the people should rule directly or through their representatives. So when somebody rebels against democracy itself, the Western Satanist is always on board because the People to them is a symbol for Satan/Archetypal Rebel, which does not fit with the meek image of the voter filing papers in the ballot booth.
The end result is nonsense like when Hillary Clinton went on about how they needed to interve in Libya because Gaddhaffi was going to massacre his people in Benghazi (he was winning). Someone who isn't a Western Satanist pretending to be a Democrat would not identify rebels against a Libyan regime as the People of Libya and imagine a ruler crushing a rebellion as somehow the annihilation of the People itself.
Actually the whole thing reminds me of folks wearing Che Guevara/Anarchy symbols teashirts even though they ain't actually Communists/Anarchists.Hey Red Diamond can I have some of what you're smoking because it sounds like some good shit.
Also the whole "Western Satanist" thing is interesting and he should tell us more about it.
It isn't really about Satan, unless Christianity is true in which case it very much is. :)
There is a game that depicts Western Satanism's strategic operation pretty much spot on and this game is actually Liberal Crime Squad, because there the LCV do not actually ever overthrow or get elected the US government however well they do. Western Satanism (ideally) does not have to rule and create a Western Satanist regime, but instead to preside over a state of fear and intimidation directed against a powerless authority. Said authority will both give the Western Satanists whatever they happen to want but also allow them to freely do whatever they wish to whomsoever they wish.
Euromaiden is like that. The reason to overthrow Yanukavich is not because they could not win the next election, indeed they even forced him to back down from his chosen course without removing him from office. The reason is solely because of fear that overthrowing a leader will create in subsequent leaders, even if said leaders actually supported the rebellion against the previous leaders. Thanks to overthrowing Yanukavich, all subsequent leaders of Ukraine fear to ever defy the Western Satanists ever again. Removing a leader peacefully and legally does not create any terror, so it is useless to them.
This explains the mystery of why, despite the obvious threat of utter ruin that a war with Russia represents, the Ukrainians made no concessions to Russia to avoid war. The leaders of Ukraine fear the Euromaiden/Western Satanist faction more than they fear the Russians. If said faction demands no concessions, then no concessions will be made because whoever makes them will be brutally removed from power.
To return to the "Real Satan" aspect everyone is so interested in, the literal teachings of Christianity are that *all* rulers rule by divine sanction. This makes Christianity an inplacable foe of Western Satanism, since there is no room there for any kind of glorification of rebellion but rather it is clearly demonized. Destroying Christianity altogether or keeping their followers in the dark regarding the actual teachings of the religion against rebellion is fundermental to their strength. For obvious reasons a population propogandized by Star Wars style cultural narratives is far better for them than one propogandized by a religion authority cult, since the former is initially biased towards the rebellion while the latter is biased against the rebellion.
The easier it is to create a rebellion, the more frightened the rulers are and the more frightened they are, the more power the Western Satanists have.At the rate Russian tanks get destroyed it seems like they'd be better off dropping them out of plane onto Ukraine.
Hey where's Red Diamond at I need more conspiracy goodness!
It is your position that spreads conspiracy theories about secret Russian invasions. No conspiracy theories over here at all, though maybe I should find some just to entertain as part of my new position as Court Jester.The Church have been used for a long time. Early on --when Ukraine was still subordinate of Russian Orthodox Church-- it was used to promote the Russian narrative and the necessity of Ukraine's geopolitical alignment with Moscow.
More recently, it been used to provide a better unifying narrative to fight for than tzar Putin's imperialism, in similar fashion to the 'Russian mir' it frames it as war of values/cultures playing on the pervading attitudes regarding pluralism and the decline of conservative values. On several occasions Putin began his addresses to the nations with jibes about ~ westren rich gay people from villas telling them what todo. This framing as fight for conservatism (and coastal elites) is something that many in USA right took too, just as the framing as anti USA hegemony is something that many in China took to.
Meanwhile this is just the "good ol' " war. Whether you like or not, black and white narratives and dehumanization helps to break down moral inhibitions and morally disengage from the horrors of war, and Soldiers who have come under fire often find God.
I feel that is how the whole fantasy about secret Russian armies invading Ukraine back in 2014 came about. The Ukrainian government's commanders would tell their soldiers they were fighting secret Russians in order to hide from them the fact they were really fighting their own people.
In Crimea which the Russians *actually* annexed and *actually* deployed Russian troops with full colours, the Ukrainian forces backed down entirely. I feel any secret Russian troops must have made a mistake by removing their insignias.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FRVpwodQ.jpg%3Ffb&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=f1a534fd02a32ed3ff44c2053d2865c4b6b4b1a043b38ba847e160e73e971fb2&ipo=images)
Post by: KittyTac on February 10, 2023, 06:57:49 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 10, 2023, 07:44:55 am
_____________
Just got the power back.
Another massive missile strike today, another one of very limited effectiveness. I don't know who is the genius (probably Putin himself) who insists on more strikes energy infrastructure instead of using those deadly weapons to support the offensive directly at and near the frontline, but I salute this decision.
77 missiles striking targets around Bakhmut could seriously mess with defensive efforts and it is significantly harder to shoot down cruise missiles near the frontline
Post by: Eric Blank on February 10, 2023, 08:05:53 am
Just let the troll wither away
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 10, 2023, 08:18:03 am
Most of the missiles Russia is using run on pure internal guidance. What this means is that there is a computer in the missile that knows where it was launched from (derived from the launch aircraft, that may be using GPS or a similar system), knows the fixed point it wants to go to, and keeps a log of current location as it goes. These can be very accurate, using sensors to track winds and such that might affect the flight, but a certain amount of error is inevitable. For big immobile targets, this isn't a huge drawback, but tactical strikes generally need very high precision - even an immobile bunker is a very small, very hard target.
Some of the missiles Russia is using have terminal radar homing - it turns on a radar when it nears the programmed target, picks a return based on preprogrammed criteria, and goes straight for it. This is absolutely incredible for attacking ships, and gives a nice final "oh, here it is" when attacking buildings in clear terrain. Against tactical ground targets however, it is a lot more limited - most are small enough radar targets that it is really hard to pick them out from things like rocks and trees.
To hit tactical targets, you need something specialized for the role. Laser guidance, where you "paint" the target with a laser beam that the missile homes in on, is popular - the American HELLFIRE missile uses this system. Optical guidance in various forms is also popular - the TOW missile goes wherever the operator points his camera, while the Maverick (or, more relevant to this conflict, the Javelin) have a picture that their operator tells them to destroy and they go straight for it.
Russia has such systems, but they have the great flaw of being local systems - you have to be in visual range of the target, not yeeting them from half a country away. To use that kind of long range missile tactically, you need it to have some way to see visual or infrared signatures, then decide for itself which of those to attack - Russia doesn't have such a system. Neither do most countries - the British Brimstone system has a very rudimentary attempt at such a system, and I'm not aware of any others.
Ukraine's been "cheating" with a mixture of GPS-guided weapons and direct observation. A GPS guided weapon differs from an internal navigation because it is constantly asking the satellites "WHERE AM I", and the satellites are giving an extremely precise answer. Thus, where a INS system has a pretty good idea of where it is, when using GPS the missile knows where it is at all times. This eliminates all accumulated error from the flight path. If you also obtain the exact location of the target via direct observation (and more GPS systems to determine the exact position of the observer), scoring a direct hit is trivial. Russia does not have this capability. Building their weapons to require the cooperation of their main rival power (who can easily just shut off or encrypt the signals in a conflict zone) would be a bad idea, and their attempt to build their own system (GLONASS) has been far less successful due to budget cuts. So they never built their systems to rely on GLONASS as much as NATO is willing to rely on GPS.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 10, 2023, 08:22:29 am
Post by: jipehog on February 10, 2023, 09:07:51 am
I don't know who is the genius (probably Putin himself) who insists on more strikes energy infrastructure instead of using those deadly weapons to support the offensive directly at and near the frontline, but I salute this decision.Naturally our narrative focused on the civilian casualties, but if you think about this, there is actually a military rational behind this.
What's happened to the Russian patriarchate in recent months is horrifying, and deeply un-Christian. I've mentioned before how tragic it is that people from Orthodox churches are going to war against each other.
In recent what? It is like this for a very, very long time... This version, which was recreated by Stalin, is one of the worst and most immoral Christian large-scale cults that ever existed.
Careful.. there are a lot of Ukrainian orphans in Russia.. we wouldn't want the priesthood there to take 'make love not war' too literarily like in other Christian large-scale cults.
Post by: Telgin on February 10, 2023, 09:53:09 am
Why thou, will your opinion change if you knew for a fact that only have 100 or 3000 tanks left?
I'm mainly speaking about how it wouldn't make sense to throw literally all of their remaining tanks at Ukraine, so they must have had a lot more than 3,000 to lose in the first place. 3,000 operational tanks with 3x that many on paper makes a lot more sense, even if I agree with the general assessment that most of those on paper probably aren't in any shape to use.
As to my comment about being less confident in Ukraine's ability to win the war, that's just a blanket statement based on how it feels the news has changed over the last few months. Ukraine stopped gaining a lot of territory and started losing some. Could that just be from them trying to build up for another offensive? Maybe, but if Russia keeps using human wave tactics to wear them down it may not matter.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 10, 2023, 10:19:52 am
Careful.. there are a lot of Ukrainian orphans in Russia.. we wouldn't want the priesthood there to take 'make love not war' too literarily like in other Christian large-scale cults.
Some kidnaped Ukrainian children are in orphanages under the protective hand of the Russian Orthodox Church or "adopted" by Russian religious families and I prefer to not think about it
Post by: Egan_BW on February 10, 2023, 10:35:07 am
Your aim as a Pro-Russian is simply to point out the actual historical facts of the situation and once you have done this, your Ukrainiak will gradually deflate a bit like how a balloon pops when you prick it with a pin. Ukraine's false halo depends upon ignorance in order to exist and for this reason most Ukrainiaks are enthusiastic bullies and censors. An advantage of the deflation process is they become less censorious the less fanatical they are owing to knowing facts which contradict the core fantasy.
A strategy which could perhaps work if you bothered to use citations so that we know that what you're asserting is, in fact, actual historical fact. How can you think you'll ever gain the advantage testing random assertation against random assertation?
Post by: jipehog on February 10, 2023, 10:46:17 am
As to my comment about being less confident in Ukraine's ability to win the war, that's just a blanket statement based on how it feels the news has changed over the last few months. Ukraine stopped gaining a lot of territory and started losing some. Could that just be from them trying to build up for another offensive? Maybe, but if Russia keeps using human wave tactics to wear them down it may not matter.
A war is long term game and news are not necessarily the best indicator for where things go.
As for your feeling, I think we have been here already.. When the euphoria after Russia failure in Kyiv and the north was replaced with months in which we mainly heard about the constant Russian attacks. Even though we know that Russia paid a huge prices for very little gain and ended up playing into Ukraine hands, this constant pressure with claims of victory (often over the same place they "won" and lost months before ad nauseam) gives regular folks that mostly just read the headlines the impression that Russia is winning.
Here too we felt the euphoria from major territorial gains by Ukrainian, which in a week achieved more than half year of Russian field wankery, but now looks like we on the brink of yet another "long wait".. Where I believe that Russia will hold the initiative for few month in hope of securing gains and we will see Ukraine moves later this year as conditions for victory mature.
Edit:
p.s. consider that all this talk of sending advanced tanks to Ukraine, will require at least couple of month of training crews for the job.. So for now we are doing the equivalent of medieval shield wall, you brace and then you attack when they lose their edge.
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 10, 2023, 11:01:01 am
Sorry, I would read your message, but I have to go to an emergency session of Satanist Book Club. We were supposed to read the satanist book of witchcraft Harry Potter but then our trans overlords told us the author is actually a defender of traditional morality so Harry Potter is now banned from all future meetings of Satanist Book Club. As you can tell it is all very confusing.
Post by: hector13 on February 10, 2023, 11:19:05 am
/me shakes is head
I’m so disappointed it’s just some shitty anti-democracy bullshit, I thought we were really onto something new and interesting.
Post by: The_Explorer on February 10, 2023, 12:52:00 pm
If RD could find logical consistency in their arguments, maybe they would be taken more seriously.
/me shakes is head
I’m so disappointed it’s just some shitty anti-democracy bullshit, I thought we were really onto something new and interesting.
Not to side swipe the entire point of the thread. But as someone who voted for biden and would again (though I'd prefer someone else), and hillary...and so on and so on...(though I did vote for bush, so I don't just vote democrats, john kerry wasn't much a fan of, though bush's war based on lies just for oil ruined it for me, if it wasn't for that I'd have liked him way more, I thought he was good overall (especially afterward post-presidency) just not the war)...either way, just putting out there where I'm coming from to start with.
I see a point where democracy doesn't work in its current stage (in the US specifically, more than in europe/canada/australia). Democracy only works if BOTH sides can agree (at least some or a majority of the time, through deals etc). In the US, both sides are on a complete divide and hate each other. Republicans accuse democrats as socialists/commies, democrats accuse republicans of russian allegience and being nazis. There is tons of racial hatred, borderline civil unrest, an attempted weird takeover of the government when trump the loser lost.
Imagine someone like trump showed up and tried to incite a rebellion in china for example...he'd uh...well...china takes people like that and makes them disappear, solves the problem completely.
I'd rather have democracy than china (I definitely don't want to disappear or be taken to "reeducation" (which is probably torture) just cause I don't agree with something the government does. But democracy can't work if both sides hate each other. And democracy can't work if its one sided either, as that is no longer democracy.
To add, I think the US would be a ton better off if it wasn't two party majority. If all parties had an equal chance of winning, I think it solve a lot of problems, but maybe not.
Also to further add. I feel this post even though I made it, is probably a ton better topic starter even if its not really related to the point of the thread than that...uh...what appears to be a that certain poster posting over and over with weird posts (to put it lightly)
Post by: Devastator on February 10, 2023, 07:09:58 pm
I wonder what the current estimates are for Russia's remaining functional tanks. The estimates I've seen put them at having lost about 3,260 tanks so far, which is mind boggling. But those same estimates claim Russia only had about 3,300 to start with, so something clearly isn't adding up. I'm guessing they just have a lot more in some functional shape than that.
I haven't really been tracking the current Russian offensive but what I did read sounded pretty bad for the Ukrainian defenders. I'm hoping for the best, but don't have the same level of confidence that Ukraine will be able to keep the Russians at bay or reclaim all of its territory that I had a few months ago.
My numbers are about 2000-2200 destroyed/captured compared to ~3000 operational, + 2000 repairable, (of about 6500 parked tanks) and about fifty to a hundred new ones. A very severe loss. But that's mostly just napkin math.
As for the current Russian offensive, it's looking extremely pyrrhic. These are really significant casualties for very little, if any gain. There's just no benefit to shoving units into minefields and getting them cut up, even if you force a retreat from a few villages. This isn't sunshine and happiness, but this is Russia throwing everything it can into the front lines and getting barely any results.
Otherwise, I don't track the daily changes either, they can be interesting but overall unimportant in the grand scheme (We had many month in which Russia seem to be pushing forward with full speed ahead but it turned out strategically they have been in neutral all along) As for predicting the future, I have been wrong on many occasions, some of the biggest initial perceptions I glad to get rid off is that Russia can't lose and that this will be a short war.
You can learn quite a bit from what exactly you see. Like in the last Ukrainian advance, seeing pictures of a line of Russian SPGs that took tank fire was far more informative than raw numbers, as it showed what exactly happened and where. The numbers do matter in aggregate, but like anything else, that's one piece of information and needs to be combined with other information to come to an accurate conclusion.
In this one we've got a captured Russian SPG which means this isn't a one-sided advance, several mixed units, captured Russian soldiers who are professionals rather than mobilized, and an awful lot of kills through mines or artillery. That means this isn't quite as desperate as it could be, due to the lack of man-portable AT weapon kills, and there are at least some counterattacks going on. Probably rough, but this is Ukrainians doing well.
Post by: Devastator on February 10, 2023, 07:12:05 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on February 10, 2023, 07:59:56 pm
We're still good with Lord of the Rings, right?
Sorry, I would read your message, but I have to go to an emergency session of Satanist Book Club. We were supposed to read the satanist book of witchcraft Harry Potter but then our trans overlords told us the author is actually a defender of traditional morality so Harry Potter is now banned from all future meetings of Satanist Book Club. As you can tell it is all very confusing.
Post by: lemon10 on February 10, 2023, 11:20:20 pm
If RD could find logical consistency in their arguments, maybe they would be taken more seriously.Nah, the only reason everyone is ignoring them now is because they started talking about "Western Satanists", if they hadn't gotten quite so ridiculous people would have still been arguing with them.
As it is they got thrown into the "crazy Q-anon/homeless street preacher" category where even random internet people realize its not worth it to argue with you.
E:
Amusingly enough it also "lost" them the debate. As a troll you keep on winning as long as you can keep people engaged (and typically enraged) and arguing with you.
But if you manage to simply make everyone not care about arguing with you then you lose.
Post by: EuchreJack on February 10, 2023, 11:39:05 pm
To answer my own question:We're still good with Lord of the Rings, right?
Sorry, I would read your message, but I have to go to an emergency session of Satanist Book Club. We were supposed to read the satanist book of witchcraft Harry Potter but then our trans overlords told us the author is actually a defender of traditional morality so Harry Potter is now banned from all future meetings of Satanist Book Club. As you can tell it is all very confusing.
1) Scene where Gandalf smokes
2)
...we're good 8)
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 11, 2023, 12:27:51 am
To answer my own question:We're still good with Lord of the Rings, right?
Sorry, I would read your message, but I have to go to an emergency session of Satanist Book Club. We were supposed to read the satanist book of witchcraft Harry Potter but then our trans overlords told us the author is actually a defender of traditional morality so Harry Potter is now banned from all future meetings of Satanist Book Club. As you can tell it is all very confusing.
1) Scene where Gandalf smokesweedhis pipe withchildrenhobbits
2)Trans manImproperly dressed princessabductsassists awayward childhobbit infleeing properly authorityriding off to battle
...we're good 8)
Yes, we're on for that. Later on we can speak in serpent tongues about unsexy M&Ms or if we're feeling particularly naughty satanically refuse to bootlick authority.
Just hope we don't run into the Santaist Book Club, the reindeers shit everywhere. Or the Sandanist Book Club who keep arguing with the former about North Pole agrarian land reform.
Post by: hector13 on February 11, 2023, 12:44:52 am
If RD could find logical consistency in their arguments, maybe they would be taken more seriously.Nah, the only reason everyone is ignoring them now is because they started talking about "Western Satanists", if they hadn't gotten quite so ridiculous people would have still been arguing with them.
As it is they got thrown into the "crazy Q-anon/homeless street preacher" category where even random internet people realize its not worth it to argue with you.
E:
Amusingly enough it also "lost" them the debate. As a troll you keep on winning as long as you can keep people engaged (and typically enraged) and arguing with you.
But if you manage to simply make everyone not care about arguing with you then you lose.
Even within the madness there’s no logical consistency.
People support democracy because it undermines the authority of rulers (put in place by democracy!) but they are always on board when someone rebels against democracy (which does not apply to Ukraine, Yanukovuch was ousted by democratically elected parliamentarians after they voted for closer ties to Europe and he opted to completely ignore that and attempt to tie the country to Russia) because folk in the West are culturally predisposed to support rebels, because of the OG Star Wars trilogy.
This of course has no corroborating evidence, and (at the risk of de-railing the thread) ignores the reality of things like Trump’s recent attempts to challenges the results of the 2020 election through various means, which only similarly mad people accepted as reasonable.
He also mentioned at some point that the president of Ukraine and their parliament (or whatever they’re called) should be considered equal, but absolutely refuses to consider Yanukovuch unilaterally deciding to completely ignore what parliament vote for and do his own thing as a problem. He even suggested at one point that Ukraine is more similar to the USA’s form of government… but forgets that the legislature there has the power to impeach the executive, which is exactly what happened in Ukraine.
Spoiler: Star Wars sidetrack (click to show/hide)
Post by: Strongpoint on February 11, 2023, 02:44:35 am
Spoiler: more Star Wars side track (click to show/hide)
Post by: scriver on February 11, 2023, 02:59:38 am
[spoiler=Star Wars sidetrack]He also mentioned that the prequel trilogy weren’t liked because it wasn’t about rebelling against authority, rather than it just not being as good as the OF trilogy.
Yeah I don't know about you guys but I liked the OnlyFans trilogy for entirely different reasons
Post by: King Zultan on February 11, 2023, 03:31:34 am
The Western Satanism is a name given by myself (and Putin)Does that mean you and Putin are friends?
Also this Western Satanist thing has been very informative and now I wish to join a Satanist cult and start a revolution or something.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 11, 2023, 03:54:39 am
Post by: jipehog on February 11, 2023, 06:03:57 am
As for the current Russian offensive, it's looking extremely pyrrhic. These are really significant casualties for very little, if any gain. There's just no benefit to shoving units into minefields and getting them cut up, even if you force a retreat from a few villages. This isn't sunshine and happiness, but this is Russia throwing everything it can into the front lines and getting barely any results.
Lets hope so, though it is too early to tell. Could be an indication of the future cost of any gains by either side.
You can learn quite a bit from what exactly you see. Like in the last Ukrainian advance, seeing pictures of a line of Russian SPGs [..]Indeed, but for my purpose I prefer to read expert insights on the subject.
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 11, 2023, 06:12:01 am
My numbers are about 2000-2200 destroyed/captured compared to ~3000 operational, + 2000 repairable, (of about 6500 parked tanks) and about fifty to a hundred new ones. A very severe loss. But that's mostly just napkin math.
That's probably low for losses, and high for stored vehicles. Oryx has visual confirmation on 1718 tank losses, and they're very meticulous about making sure they're not counting the same vehicle twice. This means that a lot of the footage you see online isn't reflected in their count, and nothing at all is shown from areas that are maintaining operational security until the front moves on. Meanwhile, there's pretty solid photographic evidence that a fair number of their stored tanks are rusted hulks.
You're also likely overestimating the ability to restore damaged tanks to service. Just getting damaged units into service locations is far from easy, and the actual servicing requires equipment and parts that are pretty convincingly proven to be in ever shortening supply.
Post by: Starver on February 11, 2023, 06:23:01 am
The Disney shows range from alright to great. Shame they never made any movies to go along with those shows however, but oh well.
Relevent (https://xkcd.com/2727/), in an irrelevent way.
More relevent, here's what happened with Marina Ovsyannikova (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64604233). Nice to know.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 11, 2023, 07:10:13 am
More relevent, here's what happened with Marina Ovsyannikova (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64604233). Nice to know.
My original opinion didn't change. She plays the role designated to her by Russian propaganda.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 11, 2023, 08:24:08 am
Yeah but there are only 6 Star Wars movies, not 8. Especially not 9!The Disney shows range from alright to great. Shame they never made any movies to go along with those shows however, but oh well.
Relevent (https://xkcd.com/2727/), in an irrelevent way.
More relevent, here's what happened with Marina Ovsyannikova (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64604233). Nice to know.
Spoiler: Breaking character for a bit (click to show/hide)
Post by: jipehog on February 11, 2023, 09:45:38 am
You're also likely overestimating the ability to restore damaged tanks to service. Just getting damaged units into service locations is far from easy, and the actual servicing requires equipment and parts that are pretty convincingly proven to be in ever shortening supply.
Any idea how servicing capacity related to production capacity? and for that matter what is Russia's production capacity? (According to recent interview, they can make at least 200-250 tanks a year, and hope to ramp up it higher)
Btw newer isn't necessarily better, from what I hear currently the star in the sky is Mig31.
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 11, 2023, 10:22:43 am
Their production and repair capacity depends entirely on how much they've stockpiled key parts and how well they're managing to get around sanctions. There's no doubt that sanctions have massively cut the flow of a lot of key components, many of which have to be shared across many military applications.
Post by: EuchreJack on February 11, 2023, 03:11:24 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 11, 2023, 03:15:16 pm
Post by: Lidku on February 12, 2023, 04:29:19 am
Post by: jipehog on February 12, 2023, 06:24:51 am
And assume that Starlink wouldn't be allowed to operate in China.
Post by: Red Diamond on February 12, 2023, 08:08:14 am
A strategy which could perhaps work if you bothered to use citations so that we know that what you're asserting is, in fact, actual historical fact. How can you think you'll ever gain the advantage testing random assertation against random assertation?
The fact you think that just because you can cite something it is neccesarily a historical fact is itself a problem. Historical fact is not a question of citation, historical fact is a question of logical coherency with existing accepted historical facts. You can create false credibility for things by creating long claims of citation that ultimately lead back to a single, essentially unsupported claim made somewhere but people won't follow the chain.
Most of the stuff I was saying is just stuff on Wikipedia really, but yes I should cite more often though the problem is that real sources are typically hidden behind paywalls so both expensive and no point. It was really amazing how much damage I could do without actually having to use any specific Russian media claims that would of course be dismissed as propoganda. A lot of my position is based upon my recollection of western media sources 2014, before the censorship curtain fell and their reporting of facts was reasonably neutral, though the facts were reported in a biased fashion naturally.
Certain things I suspect, but don't know for certain like the extent of the loss of Ukrainian territory during the 2014 revolution was far greater than the Donbass+Crimea, because the Ukrainans being distracted by having lots of other places to conquer allows three places in particular time to fortify their position, amusingly having the Ukrainians *only* lose control of those places requires the Ukrainian army to be really incompetent, especially to not conquer in particular Crimea. We now know the Ukrainian army is not incompetent, so it seems to logically be the case that the territorial fragmentation of Ukraine was much greater than just those three provinces.
Even within the madness there’s no logical consistency.
People support democracy because it undermines the authority of rulers (put in place by democracy!) but they are always on board when someone rebels against democracy (which does not apply to Ukraine, Yanukovuch was ousted by democratically elected parliamentarians after they voted for closer ties to Europe and he opted to completely ignore that and attempt to tie the country to Russia) because folk in the West are culturally predisposed to support rebels, because of the OG Star Wars trilogy.
This of course has no corroborating evidence, and (at the risk of de-railing the thread) ignores the reality of things like Trump’s recent attempts to challenges the results of the 2020 election through various means, which only similarly mad people accepted as reasonable.
He also mentioned at some point that the president of Ukraine and their parliament (or whatever they’re called) should be considered equal, but absolutely refuses to consider Yanukovuch unilaterally deciding to completely ignore what parliament vote for and do his own thing as a problem. He even suggested at one point that Ukraine is more similar to the USA’s form of government… but forgets that the legislature there has the power to impeach the executive, which is exactly what happened in Ukraine.
A point you aren't getting here is that Ukraine did not operate under a Parliamentery system like Britain. The President of Ukraine *does not* answer to the Parliament of Ukraine and there is no legal requirement that the President abide by the parliament's chosen course of action regarding foreign policy; they both answer directly to the People through seperate elections, similar to how it is in the USA. Neither can overthrow the other without defying the will of the people and indeed were the Parliament to do so *it* would lose it's democratic legitimacy but the President would not. The Revolution of Dignity is a crystal clear Anti-Democratic act, but that some people do not realise this took me as an example of how WS is not the same as Democracy. The Western Satanist among the democrats will side with WS even if it involves overturning democracy, they are true wolves in sheep's clothing.
Western Satanism is not an organised group and it is not a conspiracy to achieve a particular definite end. It is an ideology whose believers are loosely organised and who frequently clash with eachother, though they are rather united against their enemies, for instance Putin. Their very loose organisation I shall describe later on, it is basically one group indoctrinates a second group which indoctrinates a third group, with these groups not actually being organised or unified very much at all.
I also frankly need a better name for them. I could call them the Rebellion Cult, but that doesn't work because the Rebellion Cult is really the second tier of the ideology and a passive beneficiary of the ideological power of the tier above them. The tier above them are people who seek not to rebel specifically (because they are already in power, sort of), but to pursue any means of weakening the authority of the rulers of the country because they are some degree of corrupt and criminal or simply because they do not trust them to respect their powerbase; regardless of the reason, they are threatened by a strong authority. The oligarchs that Putin disposed of when he came to power are an example of this tier being defeated.
Rebellion is supported as a means to undermine Authority, just as they support other more legal means such as term limits or in desperate times installing a corrupt, criminal authority they can blackmail. There is no contradiction for the members of first tier in either backing the government against the rebellion or in supporting the rebellion against the goverment. If the rebellion is crushed (thanks to them) the government now owes them a favour which can be used later on to keep trouble away from their door. If the rebellion wins, then the new government is afraid of going to same way as the previous one and will not dare to step on their toes; this is where Ukraine presently is at the moment.
The third tier are the rebel ideologues. These are the specific ideologies, typically Democratic and Socialist ones used to rally forces by the 2nd tier rebel cult. The rebel cultists create parties dedicated to such ideologies and all goes well until they actually succeed in overthrowing the government. The 3rd tier believers actually take seriously the ends of their ideology and will support a strongman leader to implement those ends, but the 2nd tier wants to continue the rebellion to undermine the new post-rebellion government because a weak government is what the 1st tier wants. Typically what then happens is that the strongman leader supported by the 3rd tier will then purge the 1st tier and then reindoctrinate the 2nd tier to serve him as the rather than the 1st tier. This is what the apparently BS argument between Trotskyism and Stalinism is really all about. Stalin is the strongman leader supported by the 3rd tier while Trotsky is the 2nd tier rebel cultist manipulated into opposition by the 1st tier he depends upon.
The confusing thing here is that different Western Satanists of the various tiers can support rival causes because their organisation is so loose. Some of them could quite easily support Trump's ridiculous attempts to overturn the election results, precisely because it so ridiculous and illegal. The resulting Trump is extremely weak and can do nothing against those 1st tier WS that have backed his self-coup and it is now open season for every kind of crime, corruption and atrocity. However should the people simply fall into line and worship Emperor Trump, it would not be great thing for the 1st tier WS at all since Trump could now turn freely against them with popular support, so the 1st tier needs the 2nd tier to still sow unrest against Trump even as it supports Trump.
This is why Christianity is fundermentally opposed to Western Satanism. It says that we should follow Emperor Trump and disregard anything else (particularly laws) because he is the Authority, thus divine since all authorities are. As insane as this position is, it completely destroys the WS aim which is to keep the Authority weak and themselves strong by ensuring there is always plenty of rebellion against that authority, along with preferably other legal limitations. Since victorious Western Satanists destroy nations, this is why Christian societies have ended upon so successful historically, you can see Christianity as a paradoxical form of rebellion against WS simply because it worships Authority as divine.
It is also a continuation of the theme of worshipping the Emperor as a God and on that basis you can see how it is quite logical that the Roman Empire converted to Christianity. When Julius Caeser fought Pompey, he fighting against the efforts of the WS. These efforts result in the god-emperors but the Western Satanists (I really, really need a better name at this point) end up constantly overthrowing them which undermines faith in the cult. The resulting victory of the WS leads to the ruin of the empire but *then* the fact they undermined the Imperial Cult allowed Christianity to take over and beat them.
Spoiler: Star Wars sidetrack (click to show/hide)
The OG trilogy are also aweful. The reason people like it is that it is very much a dumbed down 2nd tier WS rebellion cult universe in which the Good rebels fight against the Evil Authority, it is propoganda for an ideology they were indoctrinated to believe in but aren't even aware of, which is cathartic. The prequels instead engage in marginally more world-building but this has the unfortunate consequence of undermining the clear ideological meaning of the works, thus not making it cathartic in the same way.
Palpatine is very much the 1st tier WS in the strategy he uses. He uses the rebellion (the Seperatists) in order to increase his own power by playing the two sides off against eachother while moving forward with his actual plan. Where they are different is that his aim is to gain formal authority while the 1st tier WS aims instead to gain greater impunity in the use of their existing power by avoiding responsibility or accountability. Someone like Palpatine sometimes appears in history (Napoleon, Stalin, Putin) but is regarded as a traitor by the other WS.
The Jedi by contrast are more like what the 1st WS are really like. They hold great power and the Republic is dependent upon them to deal with problems, but they appear quite independent of the Republic. That means the Jedi can basically do as they please without accountability, the whole aim of the WS. Problem is that the Jedi lose and the Emperor wins, so it is really a story about how it is possible to outwit them and destroy them. Star Wars strength is not that it is a properly fleshed out sci-fi story but propoganda for WS, so the WS side (the Jedi) has to win or else it is demoralising to it's target audience.
Does that mean you and Putin are friends?
Also this Western Satanist thing has been very informative and now I wish to join a Satanist cult and start a revolution or something.
I was merely describing the reason behind why we hate Putin's Russia so much, given they aren't Communists anymore. I guess we can put that down to Great Power Rivalry, but we still have to then explain why so many leading powers are all implacably allied against Russia, rather than it just being USA VS Russia because those are the leading great powers. Why does a country like Britain help the USA in opposing Russia, given that we are not actually a subject power of the USA? Why are we helping the EU even though we *left* said thing? Why is the EU and USA on the same side given they are presumably great poer rivals too.
Yes we all claim to be Democracies, but so does Russia. Why do we believe in every single conspiracy theory regarding Russia and use our media to spread it through the airwaves, inevitably being read by Russians and supporting unrest? Because there is an international ideological *thing* behind us that drives our hostility and that thing Putin appears to call Western Satanism.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 12, 2023, 08:55:11 am
I was merely describing the reason behind why we hate Putin's Russia so much, given they aren't Communists anymore.What, and not because it's invading its neighbour?
Post by: Jerick on February 12, 2023, 10:03:17 am
Quote from: Red Diamond
It was really amazing how much damage I could do without actually having to use any specific Russian media claims that would of course be dismissed as propoganda.Pfftt! Oh this one almost had me on the floor. You do realise we're laughing at you? That no one here is taking you seriously?
Also Red, can I call you Red?
I had noticed when I stuck my nose in this thread earlier you were weirdly bending over backward to avoid labeling the armed separatists as rebels for some reason. Now I see you really do have a strange view of rebellion as a concept. For you, it's Authority good rebellion bad, regardless of circumstances. I do believe we have a word for that kind of ideology. Hang on I'm sure it'll come to me eventually.
But in the meantime, I wish you luck convincing this Irishman that rebellion is inherently bad.
Post by: Ganondworf on February 12, 2023, 10:28:57 am
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/dresden-lauter-protest-gegen-neonazi-aufzug-fast-2000-polizisten-im-einsatz-a-a1ce4863-9353-4ceb-b653-fb3a592e4084 (https://www.spiegel.de/politik/dresden-lauter-protest-gegen-neonazi-aufzug-fast-2000-polizisten-im-einsatz-a-a1ce4863-9353-4ceb-b653-fb3a592e4084)
If you look at the picture in the article, you can see that they are not allowed to bring any nazi insignia. Instead they bring a russian flag.
Remember bombed civilians by bringing a flag of someone who bombs civilians. Good job.
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 12, 2023, 10:29:56 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 12, 2023, 10:34:12 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 12, 2023, 10:43:42 am
A nice short article about recent battles at Vuhledar. Russian offensive there goes about as well as RD's crusade against Satanists
Post by: jipehog on February 12, 2023, 10:59:51 am
I can't make heads or tails here, Russia politics seem like Putin's little telenovela where there is always someone to take the blame for any failures especially if they become influential. I am surprised that Girkin --who helped the Kremlin leading its proxy armed formations in Crimea and Donbas back in 2014) is still allowed to speak.
Post by: Loud Whispers on February 12, 2023, 11:09:50 am
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-may-have-lost-an-entire-elite-brigade-near-a-coal-mining-town-in-donbas-ukraine-says/>surrender entire regions and all of your equipment
A nice short article about recent battles at Vuhledar. Russian offensive there goes about as well as RD's crusade against Satanists
>annihilate what few combat ready brigades you have to capture strategically irrelevant fortified towns
>attack where your enemy is strongest, defend where they are weakest
Yeah this is 500 IQ war planning. It's just what I'd expect from the bright leaders who planned a war without realising they were going into a war. What's more puzzling is the notion that Putin's leaders seem to think if they destroy their own military might to capture a few token towns in Donetsk and Luhansk that the Ukrainians won't just... Pull back, regroup and launch a counter offensive when Russia's army has exhausted itself, just as they did in Kherson. This also fits in with all the mad reports of Russian soldiers being injured, sent home and told they're in perfect health just to be sent back to the frontline. No proper troop rotation, no intention of having survivors... On their own side.
Interestingly, Wagner and its head Prigozhin --who have gained a lot of influence over the past month, even raising concerns about risk of private militaries taking over-- are now seemingly sidelined by the Kremlin. Possibly due changing situation in the field with Kremlin no longer need to relay on them and possibly due to certain comments about the DoD and less than optimistic outlook of Russian offensive prospects.Well it's not that surprising. Wagner group bled itself dry in Bakhmut, and it's a classic ploy by employers of mercenaries to allow the mercenary group to bleed itself powerless before sidelining them. However it may not be the case that Prigozhin is gone though. It could just be Putin deliberately sowing discord between the army, Wagner group and the Kadyvorites so none of them try to replace him, e.g. if Wagner group feels the VDV is taking credit for the sacrifices they've made, there's going to be that inherent animosity and distrust which will stop the two groups from uniting to overthrow Putin.
I can't make heads or tails here, Russia politics seem like Putin's little telenovela where there is always someone to take the blame for any failures especially if they become influential. I am surprised that Girkin --who helped the Kremlin leading its proxy armed formations in Crimea and Donbas back in 2014) is still allowed to speak.
Post by: scriver on February 12, 2023, 01:16:04 pm
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-may-have-lost-an-entire-elite-brigade-near-a-coal-mining-town-in-donbas-ukraine-says/>surrender entire regions and all of your equipment
A nice short article about recent battles at Vuhledar. Russian offensive there goes about as well as RD's crusade against Satanists
>annihilate what few combat ready brigades you have to capture strategically irrelevant fortified towns
>attack where your enemy is strongest, defend where they are weakest
Yeah this is 500 IQ war planning. It's just what I'd expect from the bright leaders who planned a war without realising they were going into a war. What's more puzzling is the notion that Putin's leaders seem to think if they destroy their own military might to capture a few token towns in Donetsk and Luhansk that the Ukrainians won't just... Pull back, regroup and launch a counter offensive when Russia's army has exhausted itself, just as they did in Kherson. This also fits in with all the mad reports of Russian soldiers being injured, sent home and told they're in perfect health just to be sent back to the frontline. No proper troop rotation, no intention of having survivors... On their own side.Interestingly, Wagner and its head Prigozhin --who have gained a lot of influence over the past month, even raising concerns about risk of private militaries taking over-- are now seemingly sidelined by the Kremlin. Possibly due changing situation in the field with Kremlin no longer need to relay on them and possibly due to certain comments about the DoD and less than optimistic outlook of Russian offensive prospects.Well it's not that surprising. Wagner group bled itself dry in Bakhmut, and it's a classic ploy by employers of mercenaries to allow the mercenary group to bleed itself powerless before sidelining them. However it may not be the case that Prigozhin is gone though. It could just be Putin deliberately sowing discord between the army, Wagner group and the Kadyvorites so none of them try to replace him, e.g. if Wagner group feels the VDV is taking credit for the sacrifices they've made, there's going to be that inherent animosity and distrust which will stop the two groups from uniting to overthrow Putin.
I can't make heads or tails here, Russia politics seem like Putin's little telenovela where there is always someone to take the blame for any failures especially if they become influential. I am surprised that Girkin --who helped the Kremlin leading its proxy armed formations in Crimea and Donbas back in 2014) is still allowed to speak.
Ukraine can't play the pull back, regroup, counteroffensive card when it's currently being played by Russia
Big brain tactics
Post by: jipehog on February 12, 2023, 04:29:58 pm
That is unfortunate
Post by: Superdorf on February 12, 2023, 08:29:09 pm
Quote
Christianity is fundermentally opposed to {any kind of rebellion}. It says that we should follow Emperor Trump and disregard anything else (particularly laws) because he is the Authority, thus divine since all authorities are.
Nah.
"Render unto Caesar what is Caesar's" is only the first half of the pertinent Gospel statement. The second half - "render unto God what is God's" - is the more important bit. The instant civil authority or law infringes on divine authority, it's time to start disobeying earthly power. This is why martyrs exist.
Trump in particular is a lot of things - "inviolable Word of God" is not one of them. Christ gets that title.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 12, 2023, 08:49:20 pm
Greetings, I would like to posit the following observation: It appears as though you employ an inordinate amount of polysyllabic vocabulary in a manner that is intended to convey an air of intellectual superiority. However, in actuality, this utilization of verbose language serves as a smokescreen, masking a lack of genuine cognitive acuity.
I would be delighted to expand upon this observation further: It appears as though you have a tendency to utilize a profusion of sesquipedalian lexemes in a manner that seeks to create the impression of intellectual eminence. Yet, this proclivity towards the utilization of grandiloquent language seems to be merely a facade, a veneer if you will, which is employed to disguise the fact that your cognitive abilities are, in actuality, rather modest.
It is my belief that true intelligence is not measured by one's ability to use a plethora of long words, but rather by the capacity to employ language in a clear, concise, and effective manner that accurately conveys one's thoughts and ideas. Therefore, I would argue that by employing an excessive number of multi-syllabic words, you are not actually demonstrating a high level of intellect, but rather obscuring the simplicity of your message.
Post by: hector13 on February 12, 2023, 09:37:10 pm
Don’t even get me started on his attempts at trying to squeeze the concept of Divine Right into democracy. It’s just utter shite followed by a shower of shite with a sprinkling of shite.
We know his idea of winning an argument is to get the last word in so just let him think he’s won and he’ll go away.
Post by: Superdorf on February 13, 2023, 12:04:57 am
Don’t even get me started on his attempts at trying to squeeze the concept of Divine Right into democracy.
thank you that's the other issue
Divine right was a halfway-viable concept when the Byzantine emperors were still around*, but that's just not the world we live in anymore! The separation of church and state is real. The Christian's role in secular society is to respect that state until (and only until) its laws become immoral.
*The Byzantine emperors were far from perfect themselves, after all. I do think they were a boon to humanity as a whole - the Church exists in its current fullness largely because of imperial support - but I wouldn't want to reinstate that kind of theocracy now. Power does scary things to the soul, and Christ was quite clear about the risks of "living by the sword."
(I'm rather conflicted about modern Israel for similar reasons, despite my Jewish heritage... is the physical security against a second Holocaust event worth the spiritual risk of violently maintaining that body politic? But I digress :-\)
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 13, 2023, 01:03:46 am
Today our nazis are doing a protest march (sorry, I'm not sure what the appropriate English word is) because on February 13th 1945 the city of Dresden was bombed and largely destroyed.
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/dresden-lauter-protest-gegen-neonazi-aufzug-fast-2000-polizisten-im-einsatz-a-a1ce4863-9353-4ceb-b653-fb3a592e4084 (https://www.spiegel.de/politik/dresden-lauter-protest-gegen-neonazi-aufzug-fast-2000-polizisten-im-einsatz-a-a1ce4863-9353-4ceb-b653-fb3a592e4084)
If you look at the picture in the article, you can see that they are not allowed to bring any nazi insignia. Instead they bring a russian flag.
Remember bombed civilians by bringing a flag of someone who bombs civilians. Good job.
Only somewhat relevant, but Dresden wasn't nearly as bad as popular image presents it. It was a bad raid, but far from the worst in Europe, and the Reich quite literally put an extra zero on the published casualty figures for propaganda purposes. Somehow those propaganda figures got cemented into the sources used by perfectly legitimate historians, and became very hard to scrub.
I know a guy who studies the Germanies in the Early Modern era as a profession. He's told me that Dresden's one of the better places to study because the war damaged their archives a lot less than most places.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 13, 2023, 01:36:05 am
"Render unto Caesar what is Caesar's" is only the first half of the pertinent Gospel statement. The second half - "render unto God what is God's" - is the more important bit. The instant civil authority or law infringes on divine authority, it's time to start disobeying earthly power. This is why martyrs exist.
Jesus answered a very direct question "is it OK to pay taxes to Romans (an occupying force)" he answered that yes, it is OK.
Deriving the whole concept of "all governments are divine and must be obeyed" is simply a hypocrisy invented by medieval rulers with obvious intentions.
One only needs to look at biblical monarchs (from pharaohs to Herod) and how are they depicted to come to the conclusion that no, rulers aren't meant to be seen as someone appointed by God and blindly obeyed
Post by: King Zultan on February 13, 2023, 03:02:54 am
This is why Christianity is fundermentally opposed to Western Satanism.I was under the impression the christens where okay with laws and would be against the Western Satanists given that they have the Ten Commandments and what the Ten Commandments contain.
disregard anything else (particularly laws)
Post by: Ganondworf on February 13, 2023, 03:45:38 am
Only somewhat relevant, but Dresden wasn't nearly as bad as popular image presents it. It was a bad raid, but far from the worst in Europe, and the Reich quite literally put an extra zero on the published casualty figures for propaganda purposes. Somehow those propaganda figures got cemented into the sources used by perfectly legitimate historians, and became very hard to scrub.
I know a guy who studies the Germanies in the Early Modern era as a profession. He's told me that Dresden's one of the better places to study because the war damaged their archives a lot less than most places.
Thank you. Maybe the word "largely" wasn't the right one, sorry for my English. I actually learned in school what you just told, but I also did have an exceptionally good history teacher, and I'm quite sure most pupils don't.
Post by: jipehog on February 13, 2023, 06:53:29 am
Interestingly, Wagner and its head Prigozhin --who have gained a lot of influence over the past month, even raising concerns about risk of private militaries taking over-- are now seemingly sidelined by the Kremlin. Possibly due changing situation in the field with Kremlin no longer need to relay on them and possibly due to certain comments about the DoD and less than optimistic outlook of Russian offensive prospects.
I can't make heads or tails here, Russia politics seem like Putin's little telenovela where there is always someone to take the blame for any failures especially if they become influential. I am surprised that Girkin --who helped the Kremlin leading its proxy armed formations in Crimea and Donbas back in 2014) is still allowed to speak.
Well it's not that surprising. Wagner group bled itself dry in Bakhmut, and it's a classic ploy by employers of mercenaries to allow the mercenary group to bleed itself powerless before sidelining them. However it may not be the case that Prigozhin is gone though. It could just be Putin deliberately sowing discord between the army, Wagner group and the Kadyvorites so none of them try to replace him, e.g. if Wagner group feels the VDV is taking credit for the sacrifices they've made, there's going to be that inherent animosity and distrust which will stop the two groups from uniting to overthrow Putin.
I am not sure Wagner is bled dry. Reportedly they are using "expendable" ill equipped/trained former criminals for high risk tasks, like probing the defenses to find vulnerabilities or as mules for resupply. According to recent USA estimates Wagner had 50,000 personnel fighting in Ukraine, including 40,000 convicts and 10,000 professional mercenary contractors.
Also clinically speaking, considering reported outcomes of assaulting heavily fortified positions by either side, Wagner might be serving an important role. Also on topic of wagner and harsh realities of war: New Video Shows Wagner Prison Recruit's Alleged Killing by Sledgehammer (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/13/new-video-shows-wagner-prison-recruits-alleged-killing-by-sledgehammer-a80209)
Jesus [..]
Theist should understand that the what matter here is faith and determination, not logic.
Also on a tangent of Jesus and universal truth: Russia Will Be One-Third Muslim in 15 Years, Chief Mufti Predicts (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/03/05/russia-will-be-one-third-muslim-in-15-years-chief-mufti-predicts-a64706). Also in the west, USA have the third largest Muslim population (After Russia and France).
Post by: Strongpoint on February 13, 2023, 07:16:33 am
That or Muslim-majority regions will break away, but that will also likely result in a war.
Post by: Dostoevsky on February 13, 2023, 09:37:02 am
The protests have been going on for a while and have a major inflation component; they're also being led by the major opposition party. So there's a chance it's all just domestic politics, but given RU's current arc (and Gazprom pressure on the country) wouldn't be too surprising a development.
Post by: martinuzz on February 13, 2023, 01:14:24 pm
He said that the delivery time for heavy grenades, when ordered now, has doubled to two and a half years.
"This shows it is a war of attrition", he said.
Military production facilities have already been asked to increase their production rates, by working more shifts, and through the weekend.
For the medium to long term, NATO allies will put effort in increasing production capacity by building more factories.
According to Stoltenberg, the war in Ukraine is becoming a 'logistics contest'. However, he adds, Ukraine is not the only one having logistical difficulties.
Russia also has much trouble with supply, and the NATO chief suspects that Russia will have a much harder time adapting to the new challenges. Western sanctions limit Russian industry.
EDIT: Tomorrow, the NATO defense ministers will meet to talk about delivering jet fighters to Ukraine
Post by: Dostoevsky on February 13, 2023, 01:21:13 pm
This sort of ammunition crisis is a classic war issue (the logistics and scaling up of artillery production over the course of WW1 is a pretty astounding scale), so not surprising to see it emerging again even if the west isn't directly fighting in the war.
Post by: The_Explorer on February 13, 2023, 01:23:13 pm
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warns that the rate at which ammunition is used up in Ukraine is 'many times higher' than the production rates of countries supporting the Ukraine. He says that Western countries are burning through their stock fast.
He said that the delivery time for heavy grenades, when ordered now, has doubled to two and a half years.
"This shows it is a war of attrition", he said.
Military production facilities have already been asked to increase their production rates, by working more shifts, and through the weekend.
For the medium to long term, NATO allies will put effort in increasing production capacity by building more factories.
According to Stoltenberg, the war in Ukraine is becoming a 'logistics contest'. However, he adds, Ukraine is not the only one having logistical difficulties.
Russia also has much trouble with supply, and the NATO chief suspects that Russia will have a much harder time adapting to the new challenges. Western sanctions limit Russian industry.
EDIT: Tomorrow, the NATO defense ministers will meet to talk about delivering jet fighters to Ukraine
It doesn't help China is sending russia tons of military equipment and parts (from that forbes link a page or two back). I'm hoping the US completely sanctions china like biden said we would, but we'll see. Maybe we rely too much on china to completely 100% sanction them...a huge part of every item in stores is from china still, not everything, but a big part. With china sending russia tons of stuff, it probably win out in china's favor (note I didn't say russia's favor ;) ) in the end. Though I dunno how china's military production is compared to NATO's military production, I get mixed info on that...anyone want to chime in on that?
Post by: Telgin on February 13, 2023, 02:49:56 pm
Post by: Dostoevsky on February 13, 2023, 03:57:17 pm
Quote
Before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, the U.S. Army’s production of 14,400 unguided shells a month had been sufficient for the American military’s way of war. But the need to supply Kyiv’s armed forces prompted Pentagon leaders to triple production goals in September, and then double them again in January so that they could eventually make 90,000 or more shells a month.
Quote
So far the United States has sent more than one million [basic artillery shells] to Ukraine, while other NATO countries and major non-NATO allies of the United States have also contributed shells, largely without disclosing how many.
(Taken from this article (https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/24/us/politics/pentagon-ukraine-ammunition.html))
14,400 is puny for an actual war, but they're not saying how much reserves they have to draw down from.
Edit: For comparison, German artillery shell production started at several hundred thousand per month at the beginning of WW1 and ramped up to over 10 million per month near the end. And subsequent wars have used far more ordinance.
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 13, 2023, 04:17:06 pm
I assume this means that NATO countries are mostly running out of second hand stuff to give to Ukraine that they don't produce much more of, right? I know the US isn't going to give away enough stuff to put itself in jeopardy and I know that many NATO countries have very little military industrial capacity, but it's kind of hard to believe that the US alone, much less all of NATO, wouldn't be better prepared for a protracted conflict.
The "US alone" is pretty much the only NATO member that tried for a serious stockpile, and even the US's profligate military budget is not up to the task.. Munitions are expensive and do not last forever. Most of what has been sent to Ukraine is first-line hardware, not castoffs, which has made problems for donor countries. The UK is reportedly all but out of NLAW rockets.
Real war drains stockpiles incredibly fast, and NATO ground forces were never meant to hold the line alone - they were meant to fight with absolute air superiority against a foe steadily being smashed by the world's five strongest air forces. The wonder isn't that Europe's running low, the woder is that they've stretched it this far.
Post by: Telgin on February 13, 2023, 04:26:56 pm
I wonder what effects this will have on US doctrine in the coming decades. I assume it's wasteful to have unnecessarily high production levels of munitions since they won't last forever in storage, but I can't envision this won't lead to people pushing for a higher baseline.
Post by: andrea on February 13, 2023, 04:57:34 pm
While NATO generally assumed to have air superiority and that its ground forces would fight while covered by insane levels of aviation, URSS assumed that NATO would have air superiority and their battle would be on the ground, with enormous stockpiles of artillery and tanks.
Russia inherited most of that huge stockpile, which is very appropriate for the kind of war that is being fought. NATO arsenal however is doctrinally ill suited. UK is out of NLAW because there is basically no way that NLAW would ever be critical to UK security. By the time it is relevant, Uk has fallen. And that is why they had few and sent what little they had.
Basically: NATO has relatively few artillery shells because most of the bombardment is supposed to come by plane, while Russia has a lot of artillery shells because most of the bombardment is supposed to come from artillery. And since this is an artillery war and NATO can't send its air force (and it would take more than a few planes. Both sides have pretty good AA cover, to the point that neither flies much near contested territory)...
Post by: EuchreJack on February 13, 2023, 09:19:56 pm
Well, when you're getting free tech from an eccentric billionaire, I guess you take what you can get.
https://fortune.com/2023/02/13/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-satellites-world-war-3-ukraine-russia/ (https://fortune.com/2023/02/13/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-satellites-world-war-3-ukraine-russia/)
...it would help if I included the correct link. ::)
Post by: Devastator on February 13, 2023, 10:23:38 pm
Interestingly, Wagner and its head Prigozhin --who have gained a lot of influence over the past month, even raising concerns about risk of private militaries taking over-- are now seemingly sidelined by the Kremlin. Possibly due changing situation in the field with Kremlin no longer need to relay on them and possibly due to certain comments about the DoD and less than optimistic outlook of Russian offensive prospects.
I can't make heads or tails here, Russia politics seem like Putin's little telenovela where there is always someone to take the blame for any failures especially if they become influential. I am surprised that Girkin --who helped the Kremlin leading its proxy armed formations in Crimea and Donbas back in 2014) is still allowed to speak.
My theory about Girkin is that he's there to be a known asset. They don't want the ultranationalists picking a leader who isn't someone Kremlin controlled, so it's easier for them to leave him around to suck up any effort that might go into independant action of any kind.
Post by: Devastator on February 13, 2023, 10:25:20 pm
He can’t even parse sensible arguments so it doesn’t matter. Democratically elected positions derive their power from the people, but the people who elected the person into that power aren’t allowed to remove them from that power, even if it’s done through other democratically elected representatives with the right to do it.
Don’t even get me started on his attempts at trying to squeeze the concept of Divine Right into democracy. It’s just utter shite followed by a shower of shite with a sprinkling of shite.
We know his idea of winning an argument is to get the last word in so just let him think he’s won and he’ll go away.
It won't matter to RD, but you shouldn't forget that Yanukovich signed an agreement that let him remain on as President before fleeing the country anyway.
Post by: Devastator on February 13, 2023, 10:38:31 pm
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warns that the rate at which ammunition is used up in Ukraine is 'many times higher' than the production rates of countries supporting the Ukraine. He says that Western countries are burning through their stock fast.
He said that the delivery time for heavy grenades, when ordered now, has doubled to two and a half years.
"This shows it is a war of attrition", he said.
Military production facilities have already been asked to increase their production rates, by working more shifts, and through the weekend.
For the medium to long term, NATO allies will put effort in increasing production capacity by building more factories.
According to Stoltenberg, the war in Ukraine is becoming a 'logistics contest'. However, he adds, Ukraine is not the only one having logistical difficulties.
Russia also has much trouble with supply, and the NATO chief suspects that Russia will have a much harder time adapting to the new challenges. Western sanctions limit Russian industry.
EDIT: Tomorrow, the NATO defense ministers will meet to talk about delivering jet fighters to Ukraine
This is true, but it's not quite as much as an issue as its presented here. In addition to increased production rates, entire new factories have been built or converted over to ammunition production, and not just in the United States. Some of them have started producing already. The production rate of Himars has quadrupled since the war began, and with the recent massive order from Poland, I can't see them not building more factories for the missiles already.
It's a worry, but building more ammunition or missiles is very much possible, and there's a lot of people working to make that a reality right now.
As for Russia's ammo supply, those factories seem to be the only ones actually producing like they're supposed to. Vehicles, tanks, optics, even missiles aren't getting made as fast as they could be, due to various issues. The big ammo factories in Penza and Tula and Nizhny Novgorod are operating at full speed.. producing much less than what Russia is using. Oddly, they don't seem to be able to produce new SPGs in quantity.
Post by: jipehog on February 13, 2023, 11:07:24 pm
EDIT: Tomorrow, the NATO defense ministers will meet to talk about delivering jet fighters to UkraineThat plus training seem like far far away.
I assume this means that NATO countries are mostly running out of second hand stuff to give to Ukraine that they don't produce much more of, right? I know the US isn't going to give away enough stuff to put itself in jeopardy and I know that many NATO countries have very little military industrial capacity, but it's kind of hard to believe that the US alone, much less all of NATO, wouldn't be better prepared for a protracted conflict.
USA isn't going to be in jeopardy, relatively to its size its commit is rather modest at least in terms of hardware.
And while a lot of the stuff sent isn't new, it is still within its service life period so it works just the same.
Post by: Devastator on February 13, 2023, 11:35:08 pm
I assume this means that NATO countries are mostly running out of second hand stuff to give to Ukraine that they don't produce much more of, right? I know the US isn't going to give away enough stuff to put itself in jeopardy and I know that many NATO countries have very little military industrial capacity, but it's kind of hard to believe that the US alone, much less all of NATO, wouldn't be better prepared for a protracted conflict.
Ammo-wise it's mostly because they weren't expecting another highly intensive artillery-run ground war with no air superiority, so didn't retain enormous stockpiles.
Post by: Dostoevsky on February 13, 2023, 11:59:15 pm
The production rate of Himars has quadrupled since the war began
The target production rate of HIMARs has gone from 14,400 to 90,000 per month, but the military doesn't expect to achieve that rate for roughly two years.
For something like a basic artillery shell they could hypothetically rapidly increase production with a massive infusion on money and labor - which DOD usually finds easy but the current House of Representatives may resist - but higher tech munitions have more potential bottlenecks and other challenges for quickly scaling up.
Post by: Madman198237 on February 14, 2023, 12:21:14 am
The US' industrial capacity is the backbone of NATO. Given a few months to a couple of years to work onto a war footing the US can feed MULTIPLE high-intensity conflicts with a frankly ludicrous amount of industrial capacity left over. See WWII, naturally. Same reason the US spends so much more than any other NATO country on its military---ultimately, should NATO go to war, it'd be the US that held up the entire alliance until everybody got onto a war footing...and then it'd STILL be the US holding up the entire alliance with its production capacity and relative impregnability.
Post by: Devastator on February 14, 2023, 03:03:24 am
My numbers are about 2000-2200 destroyed/captured compared to ~3000 operational, + 2000 repairable, (of about 6500 parked tanks) and about fifty to a hundred new ones. A very severe loss. But that's mostly just napkin math.
That's probably low for losses, and high for stored vehicles. Oryx has visual confirmation on 1718 tank losses, and they're very meticulous about making sure they're not counting the same vehicle twice. This means that a lot of the footage you see online isn't reflected in their count, and nothing at all is shown from areas that are maintaining operational security until the front moves on. Meanwhile, there's pretty solid photographic evidence that a fair number of their stored tanks are rusted hulks.
You're also likely overestimating the ability to restore damaged tanks to service. Just getting damaged units into service locations is far from easy, and the actual servicing requires equipment and parts that are pretty convincingly proven to be in ever shortening supply.
Yeah, you're probably right I'm being a bit cautious and I'm lowballing that first number, particularly since a few unknown captures (including by type!) have shown up.
Post by: Devastator on February 14, 2023, 03:12:22 am
The production rate of Himars has quadrupled since the war began
The target production rate of HIMARs has gone from 14,400 to 90,000 per month, but the military doesn't expect to achieve that rate for roughly two years.
For something like a basic artillery shell they could hypothetically rapidly increase production with a massive infusion on money and labor - which DOD usually finds easy but the current House of Representatives may resist - but higher tech munitions have more potential bottlenecks and other challenges for quickly scaling up.
..That doesn't seem quite right. If there were 14,400 HIMARS a year there would be more than enough of them. Ukraine only has something like thirty operational launchers in country, after all. Do you mean something else?
Post by: Ganondworf on February 14, 2023, 03:50:34 am
The target production rate of HIMARs has gone from 14,400 to 90,000 per month, but the military doesn't expect to achieve that rate for roughly two years.
..That doesn't seem quite right. If there were 14,400 HIMARS a year there would be more than enough of them. Ukraine only has something like thirty operational launchers in country, after all. Do you mean something else?
I would have assumed that was ammunition, not launchers?
Edit: Because 14,400 per day per launcher is only 16. So I assume that is really low. A target of 90,000 would be 100 per day per launcher, which I assume is more reasonable for a protracted war. That is, if all of the ammunition stock goes to Ukraine.
Post by: jipehog on February 14, 2023, 05:52:55 am
No idea on the numbers but HIMARS is hot commodity right now, including in Poland and the Baltic states.The production rate of Himars has quadrupled since the war began
The target production rate of HIMARs has gone from 14,400 to 90,000 per month, but the military doesn't expect to achieve that rate for roughly two years.
For something like a basic artillery shell they could hypothetically rapidly increase production with a massive infusion on money and labor - which DOD usually finds easy but the current House of Representatives may resist - but higher tech munitions have more potential bottlenecks and other challenges for quickly scaling up.
..That doesn't seem quite right. If there were 14,400 HIMARS a year there would be more than enough of them. Ukraine only has something like thirty operational launchers in country, after all. Do you mean something else?
Also HIMARS are nice but with price tag of ~110,000$ per shoot it isn't the main stay of army offensive, cheaper ~4000$ 155m artillery ( and 120mm tanks rounds etc) are and that what we should be looking at.
Also I suspect that fertilizer crisis that affect food markets, also affect weapons markets cost
Post by: martinuzz on February 14, 2023, 05:59:19 am
Building new military industry complex over here in the Netherlands will for starters take an average of at least 5 years of bureaucratic and legal processes before the first shovel will start preparing a building location, add another 5 years in between for lawsuits by environmental organisations during which construction will be halted. Add to that the time it takes to actually build the thing.
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 14, 2023, 07:07:18 am
The production rate of Himars has quadrupled since the war began
The target production rate of HIMARs has gone from 14,400 to 90,000 per month, but the military doesn't expect to achieve that rate for roughly two years.
For something like a basic artillery shell they could hypothetically rapidly increase production with a massive infusion on money and labor - which DOD usually finds easy but the current House of Representatives may resist - but higher tech munitions have more potential bottlenecks and other challenges for quickly scaling up.
..That doesn't seem quite right. If there were 14,400 HIMARS a year there would be more than enough of them. Ukraine only has something like thirty operational launchers in country, after all. Do you mean something else?
That's the production rate of GMLRS rockets, not HIMARS launchers. HIMARS fires them in salvos of six, the other types do salvos of 12. Even if you're openly firing one salvo per truck per day (lol at that), consumption adds up quickly. Ukraine has 20 HIMARS trucks (120 rockets) at least 10 M270 tracks (120). One salvo per day every day is 7200 per month.
Post by: Starver on February 14, 2023, 08:04:49 am
And while a lot of the stuff sent isn't new, it is still within its service life period so it works just the same.From a report I saw at the weekend, where a BBC reporter (and her cameraman[1]) was in a front-line area, they at one point had a stint with a mortar team tasked with a couple of shots (probably wasn't going to be much more than that, originally) at some target. Whoomp, the first shot, then Wh...Fizzle on the second. A clear "misfire" was called, then it seems that the projectile was up at the top end of the mortar-tube, half-breached and rattling around like some sort of (decidedly unsafe!) safety-valve, seemingly enough rate of propellant burning to lift it up to the point where it could exhaust its gases, but not enough to actually get it out of the barrel at all. (Which, given the possibilities if it had actually managed to creep out the barrel and barely flop onto the ground, presumably the warhead charge still at full capacity... seems like a better thing to happen.)
Or so my interpretation of the brief clip was, as everyone being filmed rapidly moved away from the 'bubbling' weapon[3]. The reporter, as voice-over, explained that they're getting a lot of duds/failures... Though I don't know how much of that might be because "a lot of failures" divided by "a honkingly huge number of firings" is still within the expected range for use, rather than there being an increased failure rate due to 'weapon senility', or mishandling, in all its various possible forms. It's a chance anecdote/complaint, given alongside an instance that just happened to be recorded (and broadcast) for posterity.
This is just what was conveyed to the UK news environment, and flashed by in such a short instant, but the moment of drama stuck in my head and I thought I'd quickly relate it as relevent. (I'm sure it's rewatchable, somehow, for better context than my own recollection alone. Not sure where you'd find it. And not gonna try to narrow it down myself, right now.)
[1] I've noticed that they namecheck their camerapersons, the BBC, even when it's a radio report. I don't know when it has started, but it's good that as well as the 'face', that is their war-reporter, they give credit to the almost never seen[2] partner who nonetheless takes as much risk as a noncombatant in the combat arena.
[2] Occasionally a handheld device sequence shot by the reporter, spliced in.
[3] Still being filmed, by the steady-handed cameraman! At least until the shot itself was cut away from, in editing, to (I think it was) a bit of a follow-up with one or two of the front-line liasons/escorts (gathered, with reporters, under a handy bit of farmyard/backyard roofing) now worrying about a Russian drone, and the report and sound of a jet in the vicinity. I imagine[4] the mortar crew themselves were by then busy going through the FIA to make 'safe' their equipment, as quickly and as soon as they could given the risk of both their own little problem and counter-battery/etc.
[4] Obviously I don't know anything that wasn't explicitly reported, how much time had passed, perhaps even if there were anachronistic splices involved in the editing of the piece. But such things as were seen happened, and presumably other things happened off-camera (or were censored out of the report for one good reason or other).
Post by: Dostoevsky on February 14, 2023, 10:08:35 am
I would have assumed that was ammunition, not launchers?
Yeah, I meant ammunition and not launchers. Apologies for the vagueness.
Post by: Cathar on February 14, 2023, 10:23:55 am
This is pure insanity.
And despite all this, Bakhmutt is still in Ukrainian hands. Good job fighting satanism, you're doing great, rasha stronk.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 14, 2023, 12:27:12 pm
Post by: jipehog on February 14, 2023, 02:12:10 pm
The reporter, as voice-over, explained that they're getting a lot of duds/failures... Though I don't know how much of that might be because "a lot of failures" divided by "a honkingly huge number of firings" is still within the expected range for use, rather than there being an increased failure rate due to 'weapon senility', or mishandling, in all its various possible forms. It's a chance anecdote/complaint, given alongside an instance that just happened to be recorded (and broadcast) for posterity.no idea, was that equipment received from Britain? We know that Ukraine received a lot of equipment from all over the world, including older soviet stocks. I imagine that not all the stuff was stored in perfect conditions, particularly in smaller countries that had little use/budget for military.
Post by: Starver on February 14, 2023, 03:22:38 pm
As I recall, nothing was explicitly said about the origin, it was just a thing that happened on camera and a comment about how that happens "a lot". (But without qualification, as I noted.) Could be that they're digging into some of the oldest Ukrainian stockpiles, still, even as the stocks come in from international donors far and near (with the possibility of a more dubious history of handling and storage). And I don't have anywhere near the knowledge to have identified the mortar (let alone the partially and briefly visible mortarshell) as typically NATO, Warsaw Pact or anything else it might be, somehow, let alone any more precise probability of origin. I bet someone could attempt that, but not me.The reporter, as voice-over, explained that they're getting a lot of duds/failures... Though I don't know how much of that might be because "a lot of failures" divided by "a honkingly huge number of firings" is still within the expected range for use, rather than there being an increased failure rate due to 'weapon senility', or mishandling, in all its various possible forms. It's a chance anecdote/complaint, given alongside an instance that just happened to be recorded (and broadcast) for posterity.no idea, was that equipment received from Britain? We know that Ukraine received a lot of equipment from all over the world, including older soviet stocks. I imagine that not all the stuff was stored in perfect conditions, particularly in smaller countries that had little use/budget for military.
Also, it's the kind of message that I'm sure Russian media wouldn't dare pass back to Russian citizens about the Russian equipment, I betya, even in passing. Even with the complication that it is British reporting on Ukrainian military (using Whoknowswhose equipment) to the people of Britain and whoever else picks this stuff up. And with its possible "hey guys, this help we're giving could be more helpful than it is" message. So I think it's probably in stark contrast. There'll still be some spin and plenty of OpSec, of course, but I know the message is going to have different levels of selective reporting due to the respective media/political landscapes...
(Speaking of which, I'm just hoping that our resident Russians aren't putting themselves too much under pressure (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64625127)...)
Post by: Devastator on February 14, 2023, 06:55:40 pm
Banzai charge it will be. A lot will be decided in the upcoming Russian attack. I am especially worried about the Russian airforce, Russia still has hundreds of aircraft and I suspect that this time Putin will order to use all of them no matter the losses.
Every plane shot down will be another plane that can't spend weeks bombing cities. I can't say I welcome it, but end of the day is that they're not going to stop until all their toys are broken, so..
I'm not too worried about construction projects taking a decade. They've been proceeding much, much faster than that despite complaints about regulation and bureacracy. Truth is, you can proceed quite fast through the legal system if something is allowed to jump the queue.
Post by: KittyTac on February 14, 2023, 08:25:04 pm
155mm shells are used from steel and filled with RDX, is the later dependent on ammonium nitrate ?No but it's often used as an additive.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 15, 2023, 01:01:50 pm
Casual genocide. Being done as openly as possible. I can't even imagine what these children are going through
Post by: martinuzz on February 15, 2023, 04:18:17 pm
Post by: Dorsidwarf on February 15, 2023, 04:26:57 pm
It is midbogglingly horrible. The UN should declare war on Russia. Never no nazis no more, we once agreed.
If only we could be sure that Putin wouldn't press the red button...
Post by: martinuzz on February 15, 2023, 04:44:35 pm
Even better still, demilitarize the entire world.
Post by: Grim Portent on February 15, 2023, 05:02:15 pm
Yeah I know. I would totally approve of a UN peacekeeping mission to demilitarize Russia though.
Even better still, demilitarize the entire world.
Who peacekeeps the peacekeepers?
While I would love a world with no wars and no WMDs I don't see a way to maintain such a situation without some kind of overbearing force, which is just setting up a tyrant with a monopoly on WMDs.
Hopefully the kids will be returned to Ukraine when peace happens. I hate to think how many won't have a family to come back to, and trying to sort through and identify children is not an easy task at the best of times. Ukraine's going to have a missing generation when this is all over. :(
Post by: martinuzz on February 15, 2023, 05:16:49 pm
I dunno man. These could be Chinese balloons. Or we're facing an alien balloon invasion after all.
I mean c'mon. Russia can't be that fast to jump on the trend.
Unless the previous alien Chinese balloons were all Russian balloons.
They all float down here. You'll float too
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/15/world/russia-ukraine-news
Post by: Strongpoint on February 15, 2023, 06:51:18 pm
It is midbogglingly horrible. The UN should declare war on Russia. Never no nazis no more, we once agreed.
Let us be real. Russia will get away with everything it has done (again). There will be no Russian defeat (in a sense of Russia being occupied).
There will be no Nurnberg-like tribunal on Putin and others (at the very least, not the one that could actually arrest them)
Russia is not going away for as long as its economy is in a semi-working state, which means as long as oil is relevant and that means as long as humanity won't have something like fusion reactors (that means for a long time.) Even then, Russia is big, and has loyal colonies that don't plan to revolt... there are always some raw materials to be mined from the Earth. Maybe, just maybe Russian economy will collapse if something nasty will happen in China AND India, their reliable markets but it is also very unlikely.
The best possible scenario is that after a few more years of war in Ukraine, Russia, losing a few million soldiers, will decide to stop pursuing unrealistic goals and take a pause to prepare for the next attempt. Then cold war 2.0, spanning decades may probably end Russia.
_______
USA not finishing Russia in 1991 is one of the greatest mistakes of humanity ever, victory in the Cold War was thrown away.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 15, 2023, 07:45:08 pm
But I wouldn't give Putin off for a trial. I'd just publicly execute him and several of his cronies without a trial. He doesn't deserve one.
Post by: EuchreJack on February 15, 2023, 08:12:43 pm
I'm still hoping for something to happen here.That or dying in his sleep are probably the most likely way Putin will end his leadership of Russia.
But I wouldn't give Putin off for a trial. I'd just publicly execute him and several of his cronies without a trial. He doesn't deserve one.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-reeducation-camps-hold-thousands-of-ukrainian-kids-report/ar-AA17tZLAPretty clear what some of those children are being prepped for:
Casual genocide. Being done as openly as possible. I can't even imagine what these children are going through
"Two camps in Crimea and Chechnya appear to subject children to military education, teaching them about firearms and military vehicles."
:o
(remember the definition of child is anyone too young to be drafted)
Will we see Russia resorting to child soldiers before the war is over?
Post by: anewaname on February 15, 2023, 10:26:20 pm
Quote
According to the Ukrainian government, some 1.6 million Ukrainians have been forcibly relocated to Russia, with about 250,000 of these being children.[11]
and
After passing "filtration", Ukrainians are reportedly often forcibly transferred to the Russian Far East.
This isn't significantly different than what the WWII Germans (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forced_labour_under_German_rule_during_World_War_II) did, splitting non-German families by transporting people from east of Germany to work construction in France or to farm in Germany, while their families remained in their home countries and took the work they could get to feed themselves. From that link:
Quote
The Germans abducted approximately 12 million people from almost twenty European countries; about two thirds came from Central Europe and Eastern Europe.[1]
Post by: Madman198237 on February 16, 2023, 12:43:21 am
The Soviets were worse than the Nazis, no doubt about it. And Putin is just trying to make a new Soviet Union, evils and all.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 16, 2023, 12:59:59 am
This is exactly the same thing the SOVIETS did in WWII. Grabbed anyone they didn't like and shipped them off to gulags out in the middle of nowhere in Siberia. Many of them didn't return, those that did often didn't want to talk about it.
The Soviets were worse than the Nazis, no doubt about it. And Putin is just trying to make a new Soviet Union, evils and all.
And it is happening again because for some reason in 1991 the West went - "Yay, love, peace, Russia is our new democratic friend!"
Instead of - "Ok guys, now you handle all those guys who committed crimes against humanity in WW2 to an international court and we don't care they are old. While we are at it, handle the guys who are responsible for illegal invasions in Hungary and Czechoslovakia. Oh, and yes, that guys who just recently killed 1M+ civilians in Afghanistan should go to. If no, Cold War continues. Have fun winning it now, when USSR had collapsed and your economy is in ruins."
At the very least, in 1994 after the Chechen War started, the West should have gone for "Oh, you are still monsters. What a surprise" instead of pretending that nothing happened.
_________
One of my greatest fears is that Putin will be removed from power, some other somewhat more guy will come in his place and we'll get 1991 again.
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 16, 2023, 01:14:47 am
Post by: King Zultan on February 16, 2023, 02:45:31 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 16, 2023, 03:03:39 am
I actually like you as a person, MM, but that's a shit take. Under Stalin, sure there's a valid point to be made there even if I disagree. But the late USSR was nowhere near as bad. In fact they got more right about government than the current fuck in power... still undemocratic but I'd rather be under a left-wing dictatorship than a right-wing one. It was more equal at least. The repressions slowed heavily after Stalin's death.
Post by: scriver on February 16, 2023, 03:49:20 am
This is exactly the same thing the SOVIETS did in WWII. Grabbed anyone they didn't like and shipped them off to gulags out in the middle of nowhere in Siberia. Many of them didn't return, those that did often didn't want to talk about it.
The Soviets were worse than the Nazis, no doubt about it. And Putin is just trying to make a new Soviet Union, evils and all.
Fun fact: There's a Swedish minority in Ukraine because of soviet relocation policies. They're the remnants of the "Estonian Swedes" who the soviets broke up and destroyed.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 16, 2023, 04:21:32 am
Trying to do any of that would have produced one of three results. First, the leadership of the Soviet Union might have decided to roll the dice on actual war instead of breaking up
Note that I said 1991, what policies should have been after USSR had collapsed not before.
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 16, 2023, 04:31:30 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 16, 2023, 04:31:52 am
If I remember right there was a US general that wanted to go after the Soviets at the end of WWII, which probably was the best time to go after them.
There were many war plans for fighting the Soviets immediately after WWII ended. The general attitude toward them can be summed up in the code name of the most famous one - UNTHINKABLE.
Preparing for renewed war was only good sense, but nobody sane thought it was a good idea. The nuclear monopoly would only have helped so much, as A-bombs couldn't be built very fast. Even conventional strategic bombing would be difficult, because the key Soviet production was buried deep and Soviet air defenses were intact. Most importantly, Soviet ground forces were probably stronger -a lot stronger- than the immediately available forces in Europe. Even if you could maintain American support for the new war, winning it would nit be easy. The war plans were prepared primarily in the event Stalin decided to strike while the iron was hot.
The Soviets did, in fact, have such plans. They were never executed because the Allies had an overwhelming advantage in strategic strike, including atomic weapons, and no ground force advantage could knock out the United States, which was still far short of maximum war production and essentially invulnerable to Soviet attack. Their war plans were prepared primarily in case Truman or Churchill decided to strike while the iron was hot.
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 16, 2023, 05:09:21 am
We were all denied the blursed timeline where Gorby's reforms somehow saved the Union instead of helping its collapse along...😳
Post by: jipehog on February 16, 2023, 06:21:06 am
Yet another thing that strengthen my assessment that no matter what the outcome in Ukraine strategically Russia already lost.
Meanwhile things aren't promising to them on tactical level as well: Wagner Chief Admits it May Not Take Bakhmut Until April (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/16/wagner-chief-says-russias-monstrous-bureacracy-impeding-ukraine-fight-a80243).
Post by: Strongpoint on February 16, 2023, 08:16:21 am
Ah, surviving a battle = being a deserter. Russian military traditions are maintained
Post by: anewaname on February 16, 2023, 09:35:24 am
It wasn't one westerner who conspired to steal monies, it was many. They used networks of businesses and lawyers with the goal of personal profit, not with the goal of creating healthy democracies.
If this war ends, the exploitation of their natural resources and the international sale of those resources has to be transparent enough to prevent another rise-to-power of an elite that suppresses their own population on behalf of non-Ukrainian business partners.
Post by: jipehog on February 16, 2023, 09:56:03 am
Post by: Red Diamond on February 16, 2023, 12:54:15 pm
Post by: Superdorf on February 16, 2023, 01:01:30 pm
Quote from: Acts 5
27 The apostles were brought in and made to appear before the Sanhedrin to be questioned by the high priest. 28 “We gave you strict orders not to teach in this name,” he said. “Yet you have filled Jerusalem with your teaching and are determined to make us guilty of this man’s blood.”
29 Peter and the other apostles replied: “We must obey God rather than human beings! 30 The God of our ancestors raised Jesus from the dead—whom you killed by hanging him on a cross. 31 God exalted him to his own right hand as Prince and Savior that he might bring Israel to repentance and forgive their sins. 32 We are witnesses of these things, and so is the Holy Spirit, whom God has given to those who obey him.”
God first, local authorities second
That's all I have time to say right now
Post by: Starver on February 16, 2023, 01:12:13 pm
"you just don't like the word Western Satanism" - Is that you, Mr President?
"They are taking those children from places they consider part of Russia to other places in Russia. From their POV, they ain't doing anything wrong because those children aren't Ukrainian anymore." - Which means they were Ukrainian. More nice phrasing.
(I was beginning to wonder if you'd given up your position and retired gracefully. But yet more nonsense, I see.)
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 16, 2023, 01:39:11 pm
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 16, 2023, 01:44:29 pm
Post by: Madman198237 on February 16, 2023, 01:47:57 pm
A conspiracy-theorist-tier lunatic who is almost certainly a troll because most actual conspiracy theorists don't understand so many multisyllable words.
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 16, 2023, 01:51:44 pm
Post by: nenjin on February 16, 2023, 02:24:15 pm
Quote from: Acts 527 The apostles were brought in and made to appear before the Sanhedrin to be questioned by the high priest. 28 “We gave you strict orders not to teach in this name,” he said. “Yet you have filled Jerusalem with your teaching and are determined to make us guilty of this man’s blood.”
29 Peter and the other apostles replied: “We must obey God rather than human beings! 30 The God of our ancestors raised Jesus from the dead—whom you killed by hanging him on a cross. 31 God exalted him to his own right hand as Prince and Savior that he might bring Israel to repentance and forgive their sins. 32 We are witnesses of these things, and so is the Holy Spirit, whom God has given to those who obey him.”
God first, local authorities second
That's all I have time to say right now
You know you've got a solid argument when you quote the Bible and nope out.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 16, 2023, 03:22:10 pm
Post by: Devastator on February 16, 2023, 05:46:34 pm
Quote
Trying to do any of that would have produced one of three results. First, the leadership of the Soviet Union might have decided to roll the dice on actual war instead of breaking up - because that would be the only possible chance of any kind of survival. The second possibility would be one that nearly happened anyway - a full-blown civil war in a country with thousands of nuclear warheads. The third would be them trying to double down on the fortress mentality, keeping everything -including Ukraine and the Baltics- until everybody starved. All of which would be horrible, horrible options for everybody and resulted in a death toll that would dwarf both World Wars combined. Aiding the breakup and trying to transistion the post-Soviet states to healthy democracies was quite literally the only option that wasn't utterly insane.The plan didn't fail because it was a bad idea, it failed because the institutional rot was far worse than Western observers realized, and more importantly because the American in charge of distributing the aid monies conspired with oligarchs to steal said aid monies.
I more or less agree with this assessment, although I would like to point out something at the end. Almost nobody in the Soviet Union knew how money worked. The sheer breadth of fraud and scams can hardly be underestimated, largely because basically nobody knew thing one about money.
There were also real success stories. Czechia, the Baltic States..
There were absolutely failures post 1991, though. Trials and arrests of ex secret policemen and state security officers might have saved a free Russia, but hindsight is, alas, 20/20.
As for Unthinkable and WW2.5, well.. I don't rightly know. I have little opinion on how that would have went. There wasn't much support for attacking the current ally, on either side, and it would have been extremely messy. The soviets were in a bad manpower crunch, but they still had very powerful forces in the field. And everyone in the Western Allies knew then how difficult an invasion of Russia can be. Personally, I'd be reluctant to write an AH featuring Unthinkable, it'd take a lot of changes and assumptions.
Seeing how RD consistently gets the names of places and historical facts wrong while authoritatively lecturing us on how things are, I've decided to read his posts in Mr. Plinkett's voice. It all makes sense now.
I would agree that RD seems likely to have someone tied up in his basement, yes. But Mr. Plinkett has both the ability to think critically and produce material of value.
"From their POV, they ain't doing anything wrong because those children aren't Ukrainian anymore." - Which means they were Ukrainian. More nice phrasing.
The phrasing also implies RD knows this is wrong, too.
Post by: Devastator on February 16, 2023, 05:49:25 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 16, 2023, 05:58:41 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 16, 2023, 06:04:31 pm
Post by: Starver on February 16, 2023, 06:06:01 pm
I just keep hoping Toady eventually stops snoozin' and enforces the forum rules. It's bad enough this Putnist troll keeps posting his inane horseshit, but having the same abbreviation as my username is just going to get confusing. :VI already get you confused with Elton John for exactly this reason!
Post by: Devastator on February 16, 2023, 06:09:58 pm
Aiding the USSR breakup failed because the western governments allowed their citizens to commit actions in the USSR that would have been illegal in their own countries.
It wasn't one westerner who conspired to steal monies, it was many. They used networks of businesses and lawyers with the goal of personal profit, not with the goal of creating healthy democracies.
If this war ends, the exploitation of their natural resources and the international sale of those resources has to be transparent enough to prevent another rise-to-power of an elite that suppresses their own population on behalf of non-Ukrainian business partners.
Yeah, no. The USSR breakup was largely internal, and most of the crimes were done by Russians against Russians. There were many non-Russians who wanted pieces of the pie, but their entire economy needed to be rebuilt. Many other countries ended up as healthy democracies.. but Russia didn't. Current leader is an ex secret policeman who came to power by both producing fake scares to crack down against and by employing large numbers of economicists to redistribute wealth to his chosen all-Russian elite... while cracking down on other Russians who didn't agree with him taking over.
As for Ukraine, they're more than capable of running their own country, and have been fixing their own problems for years. The worst politicians in terms of stealing have, of course, been the ones backed and supported by Russia. Yanukovich was greatly unpopular for many reasons, not the least of which was his massive fortune created by both payoffs from Russia and stealing from Ukraine. The population knows what's up and had no difficulty turning against someone who made his money by trampling down the rights of Ukrainians.
Post by: Devastator on February 16, 2023, 06:12:08 pm
He's not breaking forum rules, is he? There's no 'must be a shill for Western Satanists' clause when you sign up.
Genocide denial is more than a little bit questionable.
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 16, 2023, 06:18:28 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on February 16, 2023, 06:21:56 pm
Quote
They are taking those children from places they consider part of Russia to other places in Russia. From their POV, they ain't doing anything wrong because those children aren't Ukrainian anymore.
I am quite pro free speech even for despicable people but I draw the line somewhere around openly approving genocide. This guy really doesn't deserve his posting privileges anymore. Internet is big, there are many places where he will be welcome, this forum shouldn't be one of them.
Post by: Egan_BW on February 16, 2023, 06:31:35 pm
Trials and arrests of ex secret policemen and state security officers might have saved a free Russia, but hindsight is, alas, 20/20.
Perhaps you could say hindsight is 2022.
Post by: jipehog on February 16, 2023, 06:59:47 pm
Post by: Ganondworf on February 16, 2023, 07:21:51 pm
QuoteThey are taking those children from places they consider part of Russia to other places in Russia. From their POV, they ain't doing anything wrong because those children aren't Ukrainian anymore.
I am quite pro free speech even for despicable people but I draw the line somewhere around openly approving genocide. This guy really doesn't deserve his posting privileges anymore. Internet is big, there are many places where he will be welcome, this forum shouldn't be one of them.
Maybe I'm missing nuances of English language, but the way he is writing that he is just stating "their point of view", isn't he? I mostly stopped paying attention to him, but I can not really see those two sentences as approving genocide.
Edit: and I read the explanation one of you guys gave earlier about how the UN definition of genocide differs from its original usage, and I agree that the reeducation of those children constitutes an attempt at genocide. I just wanted to point out that POV thing, even if I myself considered reporting that post.
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 16, 2023, 07:30:35 pm
Maybe having more than one moderator might be a good idea for this forum, given I know that he's going to be busy with the steam release and such...
Post by: Ganondworf on February 16, 2023, 07:34:40 pm
Have you tried actually reading the shit diamond spews for longer than five seconds?
No I haven't, for the sake of my own sanity. I stopped at "Western Satanists". If you say that he's justifying genocide, then in the light of his demonstrated behaviour I am quite happy with accepting your word for it. So the report button is not working as intended?
Post by: bloop_bleep on February 16, 2023, 07:42:20 pm
And, of course, in the context of the other lunacy which is nonstop heroization of the Russian authorities, I don't think they are playing devil's advocate at all, but are rather in full support of these actions, and are plainly stating the fucked up reasons they think it is OK.
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 16, 2023, 07:45:39 pm
So the report button is not working as intended?
Report button works, mods asleep is the problem. :P
Post by: Egan_BW on February 16, 2023, 07:46:47 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on February 16, 2023, 07:52:54 pm
QuoteThey are taking those children from places they consider part of Russia to other places in Russia. From their POV, they ain't doing anything wrong because those children aren't Ukrainian anymore.
I am quite pro free speech even for despicable people but I draw the line somewhere around openly approving genocide. This guy really doesn't deserve his posting privileges anymore. Internet is big, there are many places where he will be welcome, this forum shouldn't be one of them.
Maybe I'm missing nuances of English language, but the way he is writing that he is just stating "their point of view", isn't he? I mostly stopped paying attention to him, but I can not really see those two sentences as approving genocide.
Well, then compare it to something like:
From the Nazi POV Jews were subhuman parasites and they weren't doing anything wrong eliminating them Formally, this phrase is factually correct and is not a direct approval of the Holocaust but in fact, it is saying that the Holocaust being a horrible crime is merely a matter of opinion
Also, basically said that forcefully assimilating children is "moving children from place to place", now that is like saying "Germans merely moved Jews, residents of what they considered to be the Third Reich, from place to place"
Post by: Ganondworf on February 16, 2023, 07:59:10 pm
Well, then compare it to something like:
From the Nazi POV Jews were subhuman parasites and they weren't doing anything wrong eliminating them Formally, this phrase is factually correct and is not a direct approval of the Holocaust but in fact, it is saying that the Holocaust being a horrible crime is merely a matter of opinion
Also, basically said that forcefully assimilating children is "moving children from place to place", now that is like saying "Germans merely moved Jews, residents of what they considered to be the Third Reich, from place to place"
Thank you, that actually helped me. It was not a language problem.
Edit: removed some quotes
Post by: Devastator on February 16, 2023, 08:49:57 pm
I'm gonna hit this one, because it's an actual question and one that can be answered.
It won't matter to RD, but you shouldn't forget that Yanukovich signed an agreement that let him remain on as President before fleeing the country anyway.He fled the country, what was he fleeing from exactly? The Parliament I dimly recall removed him from power for abandoning his duties, even though he had valid reasons (imminant murder) to do so.
RD's phraseology is also important here. "Imminant murder". How does Russia deal with dissidents? Murder? Poison, home invasions, muggings on the road, various window related events. Murder as state policy. Ukraine doesn't do things that way, and it can be proven.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-yanukovich-idUSKCN1PI27B
Turned out he was only facing 13 years in prison, and his crimes include ordering state security elements to engage in mass murder, as well as accepting billions of dollars in bribes.
There's also Viktor Medvedchuk. Why is he not dead, if Ukrainian politicians have to worry about being killed?
The biggest failure of Russians in the war is to assume all countries are the same as them. Here's RD engaging in the same behaviour right here, assuming that disgraced politicians can expect murder in the future.
Post by: jipehog on February 16, 2023, 09:01:22 pm
Post by: Jerick on February 16, 2023, 09:06:37 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 16, 2023, 09:16:40 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 16, 2023, 09:43:51 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on February 16, 2023, 10:16:15 pm
mods asleep post pony gifs
(https://media.istockphoto.com/id/841843516/photo/american-miniature-horse-palomino-foal-in-garden.jpg?s=1024x1024&w=is&k=20&c=JAZVeREZI36JmH50asEGdNGsWTFmjZBmUyvRP34hmL8=)
Post by: Egan_BW on February 16, 2023, 10:45:14 pm
Post by: brewer bob on February 16, 2023, 10:57:21 pm
That's a jpg, apparently.
Here, take a gif:
(https://i.chzbgr.com/full/7950377728/h61060C08/little-pony-dances)
Post by: hector13 on February 16, 2023, 11:12:31 pm
Anyway, random dragon is being silly. Toady’s method of moderation is to do it privately and slowly, so even if he is unhappy with RD’s nonsense, RD will get PM’d and probably a handful of warnings before the banhammer falls. If you don’t like it, you don’t have to use the forum.
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 16, 2023, 11:23:17 pm
We've already had incidents elsewhere here where DDA's devs having an open Putinist troll on their dev team has become a "dude no, stop" topic, so evidently refusing to let pro-Russian trolls just be quietly forgotten about is starting to become a problem here. If this ends up getting to the point where badgering Toady to not tolerate that sort of behavior on his forum gets me in trouble, welp. I've picked dumber hills to die on in the past, I think "hassle mods to maybe consider not tolerating someone acting like it's normal to ship people to camps" is one of my better choices of hill.
Post by: hector13 on February 16, 2023, 11:37:42 pm
I mean, aside from the previous troll dropping in to agree with RD, all the responses have been that what he’s saying is utterly ridiculous, so him having a platform for his ridiculous views is also providing plenty of opposing viewpoints to be highlighted too.
Equally so, RD hasn’t broken any rules. As I said, Toady doesn’t jump to the banhammer, so RD’ll get a talking to, and if he doesn’t buck his ideas up, he’ll get banned eventually. This isn’t leniency because it’s how it’s always worked, so far as I’m aware.
If he keeps posting things you have issue with, keep reporting him. If that isn’t good enough… well, don’t use the forum :p
Post by: nenjin on February 16, 2023, 11:43:58 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 16, 2023, 11:45:38 pm
Now maybe it does mean that appointing an actual dedicated moderator at some point along the way might've been a smart idea at some point, since at bare minimum even if we weren't having this sort of "waiting for Toady to log on to see what he'll do" thing happen it's probably more healthy for the lead dev to not have to be the only one who has to worry about it, but I'm saving the real razzing for if it turns out that sort of thing gets a real lenient response, especially after other-RD's already gotten his posts in multiple threads deleted in the recent past.
Post by: hector13 on February 16, 2023, 11:51:06 pm
I’m personally surprised politics threads are still allowed on the forum given how they have gone in the past, particularly given the ban on rage threads and Pony threads.
Edit: the other RD I assume you’re referring to was the drive-by troll that posted contentions, contrarian points in multiple threads, rather than just sticking to one thread to pour their idiocy into.
I think we’re doing a reasonable job ourselves of arguing the points, and nobody is getting excessive in doing so, beyond wondering what RD is still doing here.
My assumption is sly attempts at moving the argument away from legitimate criticism of Russian policy and actions, but they’re not very good at it. Possibly this is a training exercise for Russian troll farms?
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 16, 2023, 11:56:36 pm
Edit: the other RD I assume you’re referring to was the drive-by troll that posted contentions, contrarian points in multiple threads, rather than just sticking to one thread to pour their idiocy into.
Other-RD being Red Diamond, as opposed to Random_Dragon (i.e. me) since both usernames could be abbreviated to RD. :P
Post by: hector13 on February 16, 2023, 11:59:20 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on February 17, 2023, 02:35:39 am
Report about some French "humanitarian aid" to Russian soldiers
Post by: Ganondworf on February 17, 2023, 03:27:42 am
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/feb/09/ukraine-athletes-ioc-of-kowtowing-to-russia-paris-olympics-2024 (https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/feb/09/ukraine-athletes-ioc-of-kowtowing-to-russia-paris-olympics-2024)
Personally I think that Russian athletes shouldn't be allowed to any international sports events, because I believe that a change of Russian leadership can only be done from within Russia, by the Russian people, and so so every effort should be made to show the Russian people that this war is not acceptable in any way and that they are ultimately responsible.
But what concerns me most about this debate is the feeling that the war is starting to be old news to the world. Like "hey, the war started over a year ago, shouldn't it be time to normalize relations to Russia again?". I fear that if international opinion ever comes to that point then Russia will have won.
Post by: anewaname on February 17, 2023, 03:50:01 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: King Zultan on February 17, 2023, 05:35:05 am
Also we don't need another mod, we've gotten by this far with just the two.
Post by: jipehog on February 17, 2023, 06:25:12 am
Post by: EuchreJack on February 17, 2023, 11:27:09 am
The other alternative is he just locks the thread.I can do that, if necessary. That would risk contamination of the other thread, though.
Post by: Lidku on February 19, 2023, 02:17:29 am
Post by: Duuvian on February 19, 2023, 02:37:04 am
Spoiler: text from link (click to show/hide)
Sources in the link.
On other concerns:
Rapido rapido rapido
Post by: jipehog on February 19, 2023, 01:15:14 pm
So what exactly is happening in Bakhmut? Are the Ukrainian forces there about to be encircled?
Unclear, the only thing certain that it is a meatgrinder. Reportedly Russia keep paying huge price for marginal gain in seemingly unimportant location, their little gains are even less than they did in their last year push, at this pace they are going to need years to crawl to the region line.
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 19, 2023, 02:24:26 pm
Post by: Devastator on February 19, 2023, 02:49:26 pm
So what exactly is happening in Bakhmut? Are the Ukrainian forces there about to be encircled?
Slow movement for heavy losses basically. Doesn't seem to be anything to panic about. Certainly doesn't look like any kind of encirclement.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 20, 2023, 12:56:18 am
So what exactly is happening in Bakhmut? Are the Ukrainian forces there about to be encircled?
Spoiler: approximate map (click to show/hide)
It isn't an encirclement yet, but we have only one uncontested major road to Bakhmut left. Should Chasiv Yar fall, both supply and retreat will be complicated.
My personal opinion is that it is time to retreat and I am worried that political\propaganda value of Bakhmut may delay this decision until it is too late. But being an armchair general is easy...
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 20, 2023, 01:22:50 am
Post by: King Zultan on February 20, 2023, 03:00:00 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 20, 2023, 04:50:53 am
Post by: Toady One on February 21, 2023, 02:43:30 am
Post by: Lidku on February 21, 2023, 03:54:42 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on February 21, 2023, 04:25:33 am
Thanks Toady!
Post by: Strongpoint on February 21, 2023, 04:38:41 am
"The west is proposing the idea of a gender-neutral God. Forgive them, Lord, for they know not what they do"
"Look at what they are doing in the West. Pedophilia is becoming the norm, priests are approving same-sex marriages"
(c) Putin, February 21, 2023
Post by: Devastator on February 21, 2023, 04:48:36 am
And yeah, very bold for Biden to visit Kyiv. Very very bold.
Post by: KittyTac on February 21, 2023, 05:09:31 am
I sometimes wonder if he really lives on Earth or if he just comes to visit every once in a while.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 21, 2023, 05:13:02 am
Post by: KittyTac on February 21, 2023, 05:15:30 am
I have a strong suspicion that Russians developed a GPT AI model trained on Russian propaganda and conspiracy theories and tasked it with writing a speech for Putin.AI voice and deepfakes are improving leaps and bounds so honestly this isn't as impossible as it sounds lol.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 21, 2023, 05:17:50 am
I have a strong suspicion that Russians developed a GPT AI model trained on Russian propaganda and conspiracy theories and tasked it with writing a speech for Putin.AI voice and deepfakes are improving leaps and bounds so honestly this isn't as impossible as it sounds lol.
No Putin is real (and the amount of coughing is encouraging) but the speech is as coherent as an output for a mediocre GPT model and has as many new ideas
Post by: KittyTac on February 21, 2023, 05:23:23 am
Yep, it's verbal diarrhea of the highest caliber. Even his audience of cronies had... less than encouraging expressions. Many frowned while clapping lmao.I have a strong suspicion that Russians developed a GPT AI model trained on Russian propaganda and conspiracy theories and tasked it with writing a speech for Putin.AI voice and deepfakes are improving leaps and bounds so honestly this isn't as impossible as it sounds lol.
No Putin is real (and the amount of coughing is encouraging) but the speech is as coherent as an output for a mediocre GPT model and has as many new ideas
Post by: Strongpoint on February 21, 2023, 05:39:07 am
Spoiler: Yep, Putin speech causes interesting expressions (click to show/hide)
Post by: martinuzz on February 21, 2023, 06:27:11 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 21, 2023, 06:35:57 am
Putin announced that he will suspend Russia's participation with the nuclear non proliferation treaty with the US
Yeah, the only fresh part of the speech. It looked like a weird last-minute additional in an otherwise mundane speech.
Should we congratulate Iran with fresh nukes or will Russia merely try to produce more of its own nukes?
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 21, 2023, 07:47:43 am
Post by: Devastator on February 21, 2023, 07:49:58 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 21, 2023, 08:21:55 am
I can't see them affording any expansion of their nuclear arsenal. What's the point of that action?
Why can't they afford an expansion? All they need to do is to cut some healthcare, social welfare, and education
Post by: Starver on February 21, 2023, 08:44:18 am
Putin's MO, as judo-chessmaster, does incline me to think that it's more powerplay (using foreign fears against those opponents by manoeuvring) than actually revealing his direct and deliberate intentions so blatantly. That and playing it up to the home-crowd (if this deal is about to expire anyway, make it look like it is expiring under his terms alone, in a way that earns him.the 'credit' for it).
[1] Because everyone is very good at monitoring radionucleids, I could see them deliberately releasing a 'by-product' mix of them, to try to convince the world that they're spinning up their production lines in that respect, too. But I'm imagining that if they can't do it all for real then they just go for "plausible non-[/]deniability"...
[2] Fire all of the six photon torpedoes you do have, as "warning shot", and then dare the attacker to actually shoot back... (The second time you try this bluff, though... You'd be best to show that it isn't a bluff!)
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 21, 2023, 09:40:25 am
Post by: Devastator on February 21, 2023, 12:53:22 pm
[1] Because everyone is very good at monitoring radionucleids, I could see them deliberately releasing a 'by-product' mix of them, to try to convince the world that they're spinning up their production lines in that respect, too. But I'm imagining that if they can't do it all for real then they just go for "plausible non-[/]deniability"...
They're better at monitoring than that. I'm pretty sure that they can't fool those who matter with a move like this, and they could always just lie before.
Second, the nuclear response forces also gave up a tithe of their manpower to die in Ukraine.
Post by: jipehog on February 22, 2023, 07:19:09 am
Post by: King Zultan on February 22, 2023, 08:28:23 am
Also I leave for one day and come back to find that Red Diamond has been banned, now how will I find out how the Western Satanists faked all those pictures of piles of dead people because the genocide was a lie the whole time and Russia has noting to do with the war?
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 22, 2023, 10:53:33 am
Post by: nenjin on February 22, 2023, 11:14:52 am
Post by: Strongpoint on February 22, 2023, 12:50:54 pm
Perun: Russia's Grand Strategy and Ukraine - Is Putin's war already a strategic failure? (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94bqk8cB9iQ)
Yes. From day 3 if not earlier. I don't need to watch a long video to know that.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 22, 2023, 01:32:07 pm
Also, I expect to see every single "singer" from this "concert" in prison should the next Russian government try to build some kind of post-war relationship with Ukraine. Inciting a war of aggression and genocide is no joke.
Post by: jipehog on February 22, 2023, 02:11:03 pm
I thought we already knew Putin's war was a strategic failure given all the dead Russians and broken equipment.
The point is that it is bigger than Ukraine, if it was just 'dead Russians and broken equipment' Russia could still win, just like they won in Syria after everyone told that its military intervention is doomed to fail for a decade. My argument as before is that they already lost strategically regardless the outcome in Ukraine.
Post by: Devastator on February 22, 2023, 03:11:49 pm
Post by: Starver on February 22, 2023, 03:23:15 pm
Post by: ChairmanPoo on February 22, 2023, 06:41:06 pm
In Syria they were supporting (and with the support of) al Assad's regime (and army). Its arguably easier to prop up a goverment than to launch a full scale invasion.I thought we already knew Putin's war was a strategic failure given all the dead Russians and broken equipment.
The point is that it is bigger than Ukraine, if it was just 'dead Russians and broken equipment' Russia could still win, just like they won in Syria after everyone told that its military intervention is doomed to fail for a decade. My argument as before is that they already lost strategically regardless the outcome in Ukraine.
Post by: brewer bob on February 22, 2023, 09:46:18 pm
He earns an award for most eyebrow raising ban note in the list.
Yeah, without knowing the context I'd imagine it causes some "WTF?" reactions.
Post by: King Zultan on February 23, 2023, 03:07:02 am
Just like his posts on this tread did.He earns an award for most eyebrow raising ban note in the list.
Yeah, without knowing the context I'd imagine it causes some "WTF?" reactions.
Post by: Ganondworf on February 23, 2023, 10:29:53 am
Some people coloured the street in front of the Russian embassy in London using washable paint. The way they did it made me smile :)
Post by: Great Order on February 23, 2023, 03:02:10 pm
The best they can hope to achieve at this point is a pyrrhic victory. They've burned through a lot of their more modern military stock and a good number of their military units in this war, even if they win it'll take them a number of years to recover both and losing so many experienced soldiers to war makes training the next lot up to the same level that much harder.I thought we already knew Putin's war was a strategic failure given all the dead Russians and broken equipment.
The point is that it is bigger than Ukraine, if it was just 'dead Russians and broken equipment' Russia could still win, just like they won in Syria after everyone told that its military intervention is doomed to fail for a decade. My argument as before is that they already lost strategically regardless the outcome in Ukraine.
They've also gone and made Europe more defensively-oriented, so any further actions in the European theatre are going to require them to either convince us they aren't a threat or wait for decades for us to calm down again. The former will require Russia to have a complete reorientation in their behaviour and government (Which means Putin loses big time, quite probably by having a gun shoved down his throat or a noose around his neck), the latter's going to take a long time and thus limits their immediate ambitions.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 24, 2023, 01:53:43 am
Post by: King Zultan on February 24, 2023, 03:45:16 am
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 24, 2023, 08:28:11 am
Post by: martinuzz on February 24, 2023, 08:36:45 am
The leader of Wagner blamed the Russian minister of defense for the many losses Wagner suffered, ranting about how he ordered munitions but it wasn't supplied.
This is unheard of in Russia. You don't critisize the government.
Let's hope it does not turn into a coup. I am 100% for getting rid of Putin, but I think having Wagner as the new ruling party in Russia is possibly even worse than Putin.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 24, 2023, 08:44:27 am
This is unheard of in Russia. You don't critisize the government.What are you talking about. This jockeying for influence between Wagner and the MoD has been going on pretty much from the onset.
Post by: martinuzz on February 24, 2023, 09:10:51 am
Post by: jipehog on February 24, 2023, 12:13:53 pm
The point is that it is bigger than Ukraine, if it was just 'dead Russians and broken equipment' Russia could still win, just like they won in Syria after everyone told that its military intervention is doomed to fail for a decade. My argument as before is that they already lost strategically regardless the outcome in Ukraine.In Syria they were supporting (and with the support of) al Assad's regime (and army). Its arguably easier to prop up a goverment than to launch a full scale invasion.
Arguably what they had planned for Ukraine was easier than getting in midst of civil war that turned into a free for all, but that is tactics.
More importantly Syria is of vital strategic value for Russia. For example, its port is vital for the same reason that Crimea sevastopol is, and is Russia's only Mediterranean port and way around Turkey hold on bosphorus. As well as many other regional advantages. They would have supported Assad no matter what.
The point is that it is bigger than Ukraine, if it was just 'dead Russians and broken equipment' Russia could still win, just like they won in Syria after everyone told that its military intervention is doomed to fail for a decade. My argument as before is that they already lost strategically regardless the outcome in Ukraine.The best they can hope to achieve at this point is a pyrrhic victory. They've burned through a lot of their more modern military stock and a good number of their military units in this war, even if they win it'll take them a number of years to recover both and losing so many experienced soldiers to war makes training the next lot up to the same level that much harder.
They've also gone and made Europe more defensively-oriented, so any further actions in the European theatre are going to require them to either convince us they aren't a threat or wait for decades for us to calm down again. The former will require Russia to have a complete reorientation in their behaviour and government (Which means Putin loses big time, quite probably by having a gun shoved down his throat or a noose around his neck), the latter's going to take a long time and thus limits their immediate ambitions.
I agree with conclusion, my reasoning are more in line with second part. Because Russia could still claim victory if it was just matter of material and human loss, but there several things within and without that undermine its great-power aspirations including decrease in influence in its 'near abroad' and more broadly in Europe and Asia.
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 24, 2023, 01:12:04 pm
But publicly declaring war on the minister of Defense, no.Honestly, dude. It's like your only setting is hyperbole.
Post by: anewaname on February 24, 2023, 01:48:16 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on February 24, 2023, 03:30:15 pm
I hope this operation is indeed planned, securing our rear is a really good thing and few K of POW for exchange are badly needed
Post by: Random_Dragon on February 24, 2023, 10:00:34 pm
Russia is kinda hysterical the last few days claiming that Ukraine is about tohelp Moldova deal with a Russian canc...I mean treacherously attack a totally legit country Transnistria.
So to translate this from Putin-speak, I assume we should expect Russia to nuke the Transnistria region for reasons that make sense only to Putin, sometime in the next few days.
Post by: Starver on February 25, 2023, 12:47:04 am
So to translate this from Putin-speak, I assume we should expect Russia to nuke the Transnistria region for reasons that make sense only to Putin, sometime in the next few days.I'm not even sure how Transanistra is being sustained, especially as far as Russian 'peacekeepers', since at least this time last year. Surely it cannot be Chișinău International alone, through which the necessary materiel makes it way, even if it suffices for personnel movements. But that probably just shows how little I truly understand about the whole Moldovian situation (outwith the defacto/dejure fragment, landlocked between there an Ukraine).
Post by: Strongpoint on February 26, 2023, 06:39:43 am
It is a Russian wet dream to inflict serious casualties to those.
Post by: martinuzz on February 26, 2023, 08:25:19 pm
It is called 'verkracht aan het front' ('raped on the front')
It tells the stories of Ukrainian women who have been raped and gangbang raped by Russian soldiers.
It lets Ukrainian women tell what happened to them, and finding women able and willing to talk about it wasn't easy. They are traumatized and horrified.
If they catch the fucks who did things like that, I hope they don't shoot them dead. They should instead be slowly tortured to death over a period of weeks.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 26, 2023, 09:54:21 pm
And don't forget, those were liberated. There are many who are living under the occupation for many months, up to a year. There are also POWs, including female soldiers, resistance members and just random patriots who wrote wrong things on their social media page.
It is the kind of thoughts you constantly push out of your mind to not become insane and I am lucky. I don't have relatives or close friends who are left on the occupied territories (only ones who narrowly escaped). Many do and I can't even imagine what they feel.
Things like this make me consider people who say nonsense like "After Putin, there will be friendship between Russia and Ukraine again" mad or hypocritical. Not for this generation, and not for the next one.
Post by: Duuvian on February 28, 2023, 03:25:19 am
Putin gives U.S. actor Seagal top state award for 'humanitarian work'
(https://media1.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExMWY0NmI3ZmYyZDkxMzc0YzUyZjQzNzQ2MDVmMTViY2VjYmNmZDVhNSZjdD1n/VFMd7k7TRABLtuLRaY/giphy.gif)
Post by: jipehog on February 28, 2023, 09:48:04 am
Also he gained some weight..
Post by: nenjin on February 28, 2023, 11:18:15 am
Hopefully his ego swelling up further causes him to explode.
Post by: hector13 on February 28, 2023, 11:23:28 am
Post by: nenjin on February 28, 2023, 11:49:58 am
Post by: Il Palazzo on February 28, 2023, 12:02:08 pm
Post by: Strongpoint on February 28, 2023, 12:27:53 pm
Moldova really should have banned all Russians from coming to the country a year ago, at least a month ago. Something very unpleasant is brewing there.
Post by: Strongpoint on February 28, 2023, 02:31:54 pm
I am confident that
Post by: Telgin on February 28, 2023, 03:16:33 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 28, 2023, 03:29:21 pm
Post by: nenjin on February 28, 2023, 06:56:48 pm
If you take Russia as being Russia, and add in the complacency that comes with a now long-running conflict, low morale etc.....it's not too surprising.
What is surprising, is that no one has yet attached a high-yield explosive to them that I know of.
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 28, 2023, 07:07:48 pm
The situation changes significantly if you have a mass strike - a hundred missiles or planes is far more visible than one, even if they're following the same kind of course. Air defense networks are always going to be vulnerable to lone or scattered penetrators in ways that an all-out strike won't get through.
Post by: jipehog on February 28, 2023, 09:18:32 pm
Drones, especially the smaller maneuverable ones is another level of challenge and as far as I know most modern air defense system, including western and USA, can't handle them. I believe Israel, which have a lot of combat experience with every sort of projectile thrown at it including Iranian drones, has one of the most successful AA systems (they also use balloons to enhance detection against lower flying targets) and have recently made anti drone system operational
Otherwise one of the biggest challenges for any AA system is saturation attacks, which what Russia tries todo with Iranian drones to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense. Any NATO strike would likely utilize anti-radiation missile that target radars and demolish air defense capabilities. Although I wonder how effective that would be considering the cat and mouse game we see in Ukraine.
Post by: Lord Shonus on February 28, 2023, 09:30:10 pm
Post by: Devastator on February 28, 2023, 10:04:11 pm
So to translate this from Putin-speak, I assume we should expect Russia to nuke the Transnistria region for reasons that make sense only to Putin, sometime in the next few days.I'm not even sure how Transanistra is being sustained, especially as far as Russian 'peacekeepers', since at least this time last year. Surely it cannot be Chișinău International alone, through which the necessary materiel makes it way, even if it suffices for personnel movements. But that probably just shows how little I truly understand about the whole Moldovian situation (outwith the defacto/dejure fragment, landlocked between there an Ukraine).
If by this you mean their weapons of war, it's mostly due to not actually fighting anyone and garage-level mechanics. In all honesty, if someone wanted to make a tank with plain steel armour in the small city I live in, it could be done. Can't raise a massive army, but it's far from impossible to maintain their supply of old BTRs. Oryx keeps a list of their army on the blogsite, too, if you're curious.
Post by: Devastator on February 28, 2023, 10:08:11 pm
Post by: Duuvian on February 28, 2023, 11:26:32 pm
Post by: Madman198237 on March 01, 2023, 12:19:16 am
Any NATO strike would likely utilize anti-radiation missile that target radars and demolish air defense capabilities. Although I wonder how effective that would be considering the cat and mouse game we see in Ukraine.
If NATO were to get directly involved, the first Russia would know about it would be when the low-observability cruise missiles and stealth bombers simultaneously hit every meaningful air-defense system Russia has in the area of operations.
NATO anti-radiation missiles have done superb work in Ukraine, despite being restricted to a portion of their capabilities (everything publicly available plus a lot of common sense suggests that the HARMs are not integrated into Mig targeting systems, and are being used in a "program on the ground, fly to the right general area, and fire" mode. NATO aircraft would be able to operate in a true hunter-killer mode that would be far more effective. That's why Russia has fighters as well as SAMs.
I mean, they're not *that* restricted. All you have to do with a HARM is fly until your RWR starts screaming at you, throw the HARM towards the source, turn around and run like hell. I doubt if even the most modern HARMs have any more advanced uses than that; if you want different types of targeting you use a different type of missile.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 01, 2023, 01:01:50 am
More worried the Putinists in the US congress are being given air instead of being told to shut the fuck up and sit down.Agreed.
I should probably move this to AmeriPol, but it makes more sense to address it here.
A few articles that I found:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/mike-pence-ex-trump-vp-slams-gop-putin-apologists-in-ukraine-speech.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/mike-pence-ex-trump-vp-slams-gop-putin-apologists-in-ukraine-speech.html)
https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/murphy-the-republicans-lifting-up-putin-are-the-same-ones-trying-to-destroy-democracy (https://www.murphy.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/murphy-the-republicans-lifting-up-putin-are-the-same-ones-trying-to-destroy-democracy)
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/21/politics/2024-rift-ukraine-trump-desantis-haley/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/21/politics/2024-rift-ukraine-trump-desantis-haley/index.html)
https://accountability.gop/ukraine-quotes/ (https://accountability.gop/ukraine-quotes/)
To summarize: It's mostly the 10% Trumpists with the loudest voices and largest bank accounts that are Putinists.
It's not so much that they're a majority of the party but rather they have the most influence.
How many Pro-Ukraine Pro-Republican news outlets exists?
Like seriously, if anyone knows of any, please let me know
I've mostly had to sort through the BBC, CBS, and CNN.
...I'm still bewildered that Mike Pence, with all the accusations made about him when he started out with Trump, is the Guardian of Democracy on the Right.
It's sort of like when Gotham figures out that Batman is a good guy.
Post by: Duuvian on March 01, 2023, 02:10:12 am
Also thanks for the links EJ. It's a good reminder that the confidence about this issue I have in the people you mentioned has borne out to this point. There will be great pressure on them at some point. I urge them to remain unbowed.
EDIT: To clarify DeSantis started out the war at a position of "quiet". Then he switched to saying some anti-Putin things, possibly to differentiate from Trump. However I've read a few articles recently that seem to suggest a shifting closer towards the Putinist camp as a (fail) way to go after Biden. Perhaps I am mistaken or perhaps this will change.
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 01, 2023, 04:20:53 am
I mean, they're not *that* restricted. All you have to do with a HARM is fly until your RWR starts screaming at you, throw the HARM towards the source, turn around and run like hell. I doubt if even the most modern HARMs have any more advanced uses than that; if you want different types of targeting you use a different type of missile.
No, that's not how it works. HARMs doesn't just fly toward "whatever the loud radar is", it is programmed to seek out a specific kind of radar. What Ukraine's doing right now is basically "Intelligence says there's an SA-20 in grid square A32, program a missile and go take it out". Which is very useful, but limited. A US Wild Weasel flight could be assigned to things like "the squadron is conducting search and destroy operations east of Bakhmut, your job is to suppress any air defenses that crop up". This is possible because a F-16 configured for Wild Weasel operations has more sophisticated passive sensors (via the HARM Targeting Pod) to identify AA threats, and has a computer capable of programming the HARM in-flight to say "go after the SA-20 on THIS bearing". Retrofitting those capabilities into a Mig is basically impossible because nobody's put much effort into setting it up - very few countries have used both NATO and Soviet aircraft, and the vast majority of the ones that did were phasing out the Soviet planes as quickly as the NATO aircraft came online.
Post by: lemon10 on March 01, 2023, 05:15:03 am
More worried the Putinists in the US congress are being given air instead of being told to shut the fuck up and sit down.Ehh, I'm not worried for now.
This isn't the Republicans VS Democrats. If it was I would be worried due to the political incompetence of the Democrats in general.
No, its (some) Republicans VS the Military Industrial Complex. And I sure as hell know who I'm betting on in a "[Ununified political party]" VS Major Corporate Interests, and it ain't the party.
Things might change of course if a republican becomes president; but as long as said republican isn't Trump they will almost certainly have better things to do then pick fights with the army.
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 01, 2023, 05:57:16 am
No, fundamentally the obstacle for Russian-aligned Republicans is the American people - supporting Ukraine is incredibly popular. A significant percentage of people not happy with the level of support consider it to be insufficient, while the percentage of people who think we're doing too much is only slightly above a rounding error.
Though it was very funny to see a general call Matt Gaetz a dumbass to his face.
Post by: Duuvian on March 01, 2023, 06:02:47 am
Though it was very funny to see a general call Matt Gaetz a dumbass to his face.
LOL I missed that one
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 01, 2023, 06:11:29 am
Ok, it wasn't a general, it was Defense Undersecretary Kahl
The specific quote (there's video of the exchange in the linked tweet) was "As a general matter I don't take Beijing's propaganda at face value".
Post by: Starver on March 01, 2023, 06:12:44 am
If you take Russia as being Russia, and add in the complacency that comes with a now long-running conflict, low morale etc.....it's not too surprising.I read that as "add in the conspiracy" for a moment.
And I had also already considered the possibilities that the Russians had found a Ukrainian drone in some warehouse or other in over-run territories, and transported it (or let it transport itself with "oops, missed it" instructions to those it overflew) to be deliberately crashed[1] as a further casus belli, at least for internal consumption. Although what I saw of the official(ish) Ukraine response makes it quite clear they're also not too upset about it.
But it's something I'd do, given the opportunity and the right reasons. Really not too wild an idea, I think.
[1] Or, alternately, one shot down in the Russian-grabbed land/borderlands but slightly on the Russian side. Its bits carefully taken to the fake crash-site.
Post by: Duuvian on March 01, 2023, 06:19:48 am
Post by: jipehog on March 01, 2023, 06:25:36 am
NATO anti-radiation missiles have done superb work in Ukraine, despite being restricted to a portion of their capabilities (everything publicly available plus a lot of common sense suggests that the HARMs are not integrated into Mig targeting systems, and are being used in a "program on the ground, fly to the right general area, and fire" mode. NATO aircraft would be able to operate in a true hunter-killer mode that would be far more effective. That's why Russia has fighters as well as SAMs.Can you elaborate on that?
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 01, 2023, 06:37:36 am
NATO anti-radiation missiles have done superb work in Ukraine, despite being restricted to a portion of their capabilities (everything publicly available plus a lot of common sense suggests that the HARMs are not integrated into Mig targeting systems, and are being used in a "program on the ground, fly to the right general area, and fire" mode. NATO aircraft would be able to operate in a true hunter-killer mode that would be far more effective. That's why Russia has fighters as well as SAMs.Can you elaborate on that?
Basically, everything publicly available says that there's no real integration between the AGM-88 missiles (AKA High Speed Anti Radiation Missile, or HARM) that have been supplied to Ukraine and the onboard computers of their fighters - the systems are too incompatible. So all they can really do is preprogrammed missions based on intelligence. A US fighter can fly around, pick up all radar systems in the area, decide precisely which ones need destroying (to clear a path for a strike, for example) on the fly, and engage accordingly.
It is nearly certain that the JDAM kits they're supposed to be getting will be similarly limited. NATO and Soviet computers just don't speak the same language.
Post by: Grim Portent on March 01, 2023, 06:49:56 am
If you have NATO aircraft with the right hardware, you can be much more specific about a target.
It's a lot like the difference between heat-seaking (radio seeking in this case) missiles and lock-on style homing missiles in a video game. One goes towards any target that's close enough, the other goes after a specific target. AGM-88 HARMs, the missile generally being referred to, can be either depending on what you fire it from.
Post by: jipehog on March 01, 2023, 07:59:42 am
Interesting. Any idea if Russian anti radiation weapons have this capability? and whether Ukraine was provided with loitering munition (these did some damage in Azerbaijan and safer than using a plane) ?
Basically, everything publicly available says that there's no real integration between the AGM-88 missiles (AKA High Speed Anti Radiation Missile, or HARM) that have been supplied to Ukraine and the onboard computers of their fighters - the systems are too incompatible. So all they can really do is preprogrammed missions based on intelligence. A US fighter can fly around, pick up all radar systems in the area, decide precisely which ones need destroying (to clear a path for a strike, for example) on the fly, and engage accordingly.
It is nearly certain that the JDAM kits they're supposed to be getting will be similarly limited. NATO and Soviet computers just don't speak the same language.
Regardless it seems that both sides adapted to the situation. It doesn't seem that either side is able to do much flying over often simply lobbing standoff missiles, and both utilize mobile radar platforms that go active only for short time when necessary.
Not to mention that the reputation of Russian weaponry is in the toilet right now and that's going to make a lot of countries buy American instead.USA strategy to subsidize replacement of Russian equipment in Europe was smart, Putin's war certainly going to cause Russia too loose market, and USA as the biggest arm exporter in the world is certain to benefit from rearmament.
That said its its not a dichotomy, there are many emerging markets that offer products that are more suited to Russia's export market, and i'd like to believe that EU will have learned its lesson and use its newly found unity to invest in local production in the long run reducing its dependence on USA.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 01, 2023, 04:56:46 pm
i'd like to believe that EU will have learned its lesson and use its newly found unity to invest in local production in the long run reducing its dependence on USA.
My limited understanding of organizations mean any change is unlikely.
While all the EU countries likely agree that overreliance on the USA is a bad thing, the clusterfuck of who gets the lucrative military contracts means its just plain easier to keep buying American. If, for example, Germany became the largest supplier of EU equipment, then all the other EU countries would hate Germany for reaping the perceived rewards of manufacturing all that military equipment, and Germany would be pissed that they're shouldering the burden for the entire EU.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 02, 2023, 05:40:20 am
*Yawns*. They could invent something more plausible for the next wave of mobilization or whatever they want to do.
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 02, 2023, 10:27:21 am
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Another example of pretty ingenious design. It's cool for example that the top mosaic forms the St. George's cross but it is just weird to have a shrine dedicated to military victory in a church. Making a giant temple shaped like missiles and artillery, painted in military shades of green and tan, decorated with shells and flooring forged from the metals of your defeated enemies sounds like something a Roman Emperor would do when building a temple of Mars.
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Italians mogged again
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Note on the right a Ukrainian flag
One of the claimed origins of the blue-yellow Ukrainian flag dates back to some Ukrainian cossacks allied with the Swedes. The allied cossacks fought under a blue-yellow banner, and the irony seems not to have been lost on the mosaic makers to make it seem like Ukraine has been an enemy of Russia for 300 years.
Also fun joke: When a nordic or anglo country says you are a brother nation it means happy things and fun sports and entertainment events in your future. When China or Russia says you are a brother nation you are in for dark times ahead. The reason for this is because the Russian and Chinese government are team killing fuckheads and so if they think you are on their team they naturally feel the urge to teamkill you
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Post by: jipehog on March 02, 2023, 10:55:56 am
The church is intentionally designed to look like an assortment of missiles and artillery shells. JESUS LOVES ARTILLERYTo be fair, it is too round on top for Putin's liking ;)Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 02, 2023, 11:20:20 am
Post by: nenjin on March 02, 2023, 11:22:11 am
The attempt to elevate Russian cabinet ministers to the levels of saints is like something out of Byzantine Imperial politics. Props to the Russian government for their sick roleplay skillsSpoiler (click to show/hide)
Gonna get pretty awkward when half the people in that mural get thrown off a rooftop.
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 02, 2023, 11:53:19 am
Gonna get pretty awkward when half the people in that mural get thrown off a rooftop.It'd be Putin's fault for designing so many slippery window catapults, but on the bright side his cabinet would at least share one thing in common with martyrs
Behold the IRON THRONE! 100% Leopard tanks melted by HOLY PROMETHIUM. Joseph Vissarionovich, my sun and stars, I AM YOUR EMPRAH."Winter is coming,"
Post by: EuchreJack on March 02, 2023, 12:55:39 pm
Yes, it'll be expensive to paint over those folks, and paint in their successors.The attempt to elevate Russian cabinet ministers to the levels of saints is like something out of Byzantine Imperial politics. Props to the Russian government for their sick roleplay skillsSpoiler (click to show/hide)
Gonna get pretty awkward when half the people in that mural get thrown off a rooftop.
Post by: Random_Dragon on March 02, 2023, 01:53:58 pm
Post by: Ganondworf on March 02, 2023, 02:08:20 pm
BEHOLD PUTIN'S GLORIOUS CHURCH MAKE GREAT CRUSADE AGAINST SATANISM
...
What is this I don't even
Post by: Strongpoint on March 02, 2023, 02:12:39 pm
So, according to Russian media, a group of Ukrainian soldiers crossed the Russian and killed some civilians.
*Yawns*. They could invent something more plausible for the next wave of mobilization or whatever they want to do.
Curiously, only the "killed some civilians" part is a lie.
~50 members of the Russian volunteer corps (part of Ukrainian armed forces and also actual far-rights) did cross the border, did some stuff, and successfully retreated.
Post by: scriver on March 02, 2023, 02:24:36 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 02, 2023, 02:27:59 pm
Post by: lemon10 on March 02, 2023, 02:36:00 pm
Behold the IRON THRONE! 100% Leopard tanks melted by HOLY PROMETHIUM. Joseph Vissarionovich, my sun and stars, I AM YOUR EMPRAH.Speaking strictly from a
Is it 100 million dollar amazing? Well no.
Would I be pissed about it if I lived in Russia and it was wasting so much tax money? Yes.
Would I think it was possibly Orthodox Satanism and a monument to ritual slaughter if I was actually religious? Possibly. Hail Moloch
Post by: Strongpoint on March 02, 2023, 02:47:23 pm
Post by: Devastator on March 02, 2023, 03:08:45 pm
Just to maximize humiliation value while making Russia seem more incompetent.
Of course, I support Ukraine, so..
Post by: Strongpoint on March 02, 2023, 03:22:47 pm
To be honest, if I had an infiltration group that was taking pictures inside Russia, I'd have all pictures be of exactly one guy, and I'd pretend it's just the one guy doing it all alone.
Just to maximize humiliation value while making Russia seem more incompetent.
Of course, I support Ukraine, so..
I am on the fence regarding those ones. Enemy of my enemy is
Post by: Strongpoint on March 02, 2023, 03:40:16 pm
Must be smoking...
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 02, 2023, 03:49:38 pm
Imperial Russian troops fighting against the Swedish in the great northern warUh, that's a Swedish flag though? Gold Nordic Cross on a blue field.
Note on the right a Ukrainian flag
One of the claimed origins of the blue-yellow Ukrainian flag dates back to some Ukrainian cossacks allied with the Swedes. The allied cossacks fought under a blue-yellow banner, and the irony seems not to have been lost on the mosaic makers to make it seem like Ukraine has been an enemy of Russia for 300 years.
Post by: Bumber on March 02, 2023, 04:04:27 pm
The usage of artillery shells as a theme everywhere really scores home the "we blew all our taxpayer money on a 40k fanfic so we no longer have funds to pay the families of dead conscripts." All in all, nice building. Just a shame it's a church for the blood god, as Russian people did not need another tribute to the skull throneSpoiler (click to show/hide)
IDK, looks like a condom to me.
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 02, 2023, 04:25:40 pm
IDK, looks like a condom to me.Yeah, I'm not really seeing the "missiles" or "artillery shells" thing. Architecturally, it looks like every other Eastern church in the very common "minaret" style. St. Basil's, Church of the Savior on Blood, the Novocherkassk Ascension Cathedral, several different Transfiguration Cathedrals... it's a really common design both inside and outside Russia.
Post by: McTraveller on March 02, 2023, 04:27:48 pm
I mean, in my lowly branch of Reform protestantism, church buildings are to help point you to God through Christ - not glorify a state or any people.
Like, I see absolutely nothing like the fruit of the Spirit, or the Greatest Commandment, or any of the other essentials of faith... let alone anything about Christ.
In short - I can't relate... it's a terrifying spectacle.
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 02, 2023, 04:32:45 pm
I cannot actually fathom why religious leadership would permit such aggrandizement of war in their church, but I admit I'm not familiar at all with Russian Orthodox church-state relations.Official Soviet policy was State Atheism, but post-WWII (where Stalin embraced anything that might hold the country together) outright banning religion was impractical. This lead to a long practice of subversion that meant that the Russian Orthodox Church was largely KGB controlled since the Stalin years. The technical organizational control has changed, but it is effectively a arm of, and totally subservient to, the Russian government.
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 02, 2023, 04:41:04 pm
I mean, in my lowly branch of Reform protestantism, church buildings are to help point you to God through Christ - not glorify a state or any people.Well yeah, that was explicitly one of the things they were protesting against. :P
Post by: Starver on March 02, 2023, 04:52:05 pm
The usage of artillery shells as a theme everywhere really scores home the "we blew all our taxpayer money on a 40k fanfic so we no longer have funds to pay the families of dead conscripts." All in all, nice building. Just a shame it's a church for the blood god, as Russian people did not need another tribute to the skull throneSpoiler (click to show/hide)
IDK, looks like a condom to me.
Unless it's deliberate, I want to take exception with the photographer. A square on shot that places the whateveritis such that it merges with the detail of a doorway canopy (unless that's wingy-things off the tip of the wii, but then these merge with the arched-end of the semi-domed apse) indicates little willingness, or ability, to move the camera around to emphasise the spatial difference between near and far features when rendered into a flattened image.
I think a slight sidestep and/or using a crouch (or stepladder, or - at a pinch - hold it high) to realign where the camera viewpoint is from. I very much doubt that this is the perfect profile shot (or the perfect choice from all those taken from that general direction and published).
And if it's deliberate (like those where some politician is stood in front of a background featuring the word "country", where they happen to obscure the letter "U", or the precise angle where twin mike-heads on a lectern are exactly in front of the speaker's eyes), then I don't get it. So still a photo-fail.
(That's my emotional response. I hope it helps.)
PS. Putin sent a whole lot more Russian 'volunteers' over the border to kill civilians, already. I hardly think he has any high-ground, on balance. Not that this bothers him, but it should bother others more than that little "jolly boys' outing".
Post by: EuchreJack on March 02, 2023, 05:13:59 pm
Behold the IRON THRONE! 100% Leopard tanks melted by HOLY PROMETHIUM. Joseph Vissarionovich, my sun and stars, I AM YOUR EMPRAH.Speaking strictly from aWestern SatanistAtheist perspective that cathedral is amazing and one of the most warhammer 40k things I've ever seen. Hell, its more 40k then some stuff in 40k.
Is it 100 million dollar amazing? Well no.
Would I be pissed about it if I lived in Russia and it was wasting so much tax money? Yes.
Would I think it was possibly Orthodox Satanism and a monument to ritual slaughter if I was actually religious? Possibly. Hail Moloch
I live in New York, one of the coldest states in the Union.
Our State Governor spent 1.4 billion dollars to put an open air stadium in her hometown of Buffalo. (https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/oct/05/buffalo-bills-new-stadium#:~:text=Buffalo%20Bills-,The%20Bills%20are%20getting%20a%20%241.4bn%20stadium%2C%20but,will%20pick%20up%20the%20tab&text=The%20Buffalo%20Bills%20are%20among,other%20priorities%20as%20winter%20approaches.)
I am well acquainted with the concept of being pissed at government wasting taxpayer money.
My Number 1 reason why the US should keep funding the War in Ukraine at existing levels is: It's better than literally anything else the Democrats would be doing with the money.
They're
Post by: hector13 on March 02, 2023, 05:41:04 pm
Spoiler: Da Bills (click to show/hide)
Post by: heydude6 on March 02, 2023, 06:13:54 pm
Behold the IRON THRONE! 100% Leopard tanks melted by HOLY PROMETHIUM. Joseph Vissarionovich, my sun and stars, I AM YOUR EMPRAH.Speaking strictly from aWestern SatanistAtheist perspective that cathedral is amazing and one of the most warhammer 40k things I've ever seen. Hell, its more 40k then some stuff in 40k.
Is it 100 million dollar amazing? Well no.
Would I be pissed about it if I lived in Russia and it was wasting so much tax money? Yes.
Would I think it was possibly Orthodox Satanism and a monument to ritual slaughter if I was actually religious? Possibly. Hail Moloch
I live in New York, one of the coldest states in the Union.
Our State Governor spent 1.4 billion dollars to put an open air stadium in her hometown of Buffalo. (https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/oct/05/buffalo-bills-new-stadium#:~:text=Buffalo%20Bills-,The%20Bills%20are%20getting%20a%20%241.4bn%20stadium%2C%20but,will%20pick%20up%20the%20tab&text=The%20Buffalo%20Bills%20are%20among,other%20priorities%20as%20winter%20approaches.)
I am well acquainted with the concept of being pissed at government wasting taxpayer money.
My Number 1 reason why the US should keep funding the War in Ukraine at existing levels is: It's better than literally anything else the Democrats would be doing with the money.
They'reDemocrats[insert hated US political party here, it works for both of them], you KNOW they're gonna spend the money.
Governor Hochul is frankly the worst. Kills the New York right-to-repair bill and now this!
Post by: KittyTac on March 02, 2023, 09:30:13 pm
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 02, 2023, 09:33:32 pm
Post by: jipehog on March 02, 2023, 10:19:49 pm
My Number 1 reason why the US should keep funding the War in Ukraine at existing levels is: It's better than literally anything else the Democrats would be doing with the money.::)
Post by: EuchreJack on March 02, 2023, 11:04:28 pm
As a Russian Protestant, toppest of fucking keks.
I think, if you take Pepe the frog, put him in a suit, put some alt-right statement in a word bubble, then change him from green to white...you've got a fairly good approximation of Putin.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 02, 2023, 11:10:46 pm
Spoiler: Da Bills (click to show/hide)
Spoiler: More Bills Talk (click to show/hide)
Post by: hector13 on March 03, 2023, 12:27:13 am
Spoiler: more unrelated things (click to show/hide)
Post by: Madman198237 on March 03, 2023, 12:32:39 am
This temple is one of my favorite examples to argue that a huge majority of Christians don't give an F about what their particular cult will push. What matters for people without critical thinking is what their favorite authority says, no matter how disgusting and evil (and even contradicting their own religion) it is.
I feel like lumping together the probably small number of people who had this built, the people in their area and particular denomination of that religion who didn't have a choice about it being built, the people in their denomination of that religion elsewhere who also didn't have a choice about it being built, and people of entirely different denominations who ALSO also didn't have a choice about it being built is reductive in the extreme and not a good argument about anything. It does demonstrate that you know much less than you think about both Christians and Christianity, though.
Post by: Starver on March 03, 2023, 12:48:56 am
I think, if you take Pepe the frog, put him in a suit, put some alt-right statement in a word bubble, then change him from green to white...you've got a fairly good approximation of Putin."ПП Ћ ФРОГ"
:P
Post by: Strongpoint on March 03, 2023, 01:32:53 am
This temple is one of my favorite examples to argue that a huge majority of Christians don't give an F about what their particular cult will push. What matters for people without critical thinking is what their favorite authority says, no matter how disgusting and evil (and even contradicting their own religion) it is.
I feel like lumping together the probably small number of people who had this built, the people in their area and particular denomination of that religion who didn't have a choice about it being built, the people in their denomination of that religion elsewhere who also didn't have a choice about it being built, and people of entirely different denominations who ALSO also didn't have a choice about it being built is reductive in the extreme and not a good argument about anything. It does demonstrate that you know much less than you think about both Christians and Christianity, though.
Of course, Christians of other denominations don't like this temple, their authorities didn't say that it is great\fine. So, nothing stops them from seeing it as what it is - blasphemy and a mockery of a Christian church. It is the point.
Devout Russian Christians who regularly go to the Orthodox Russian Church do like (or at least don't mind) this temple and see nothing wrong it because their authorities (aka KGB priests) say it is fine. I asked them. And they discard any arguments that this is blasphemous. Gundyaev blessed it = it is fine. Period
Post by: bloop_bleep on March 03, 2023, 01:50:43 am
And no, I wouldn't ascribe it to all Christians. I think undemocratic mass organization can harm any religion.
Post by: King Zultan on March 03, 2023, 05:49:14 am
Nothing says praise Jesus like a big brass phallus in front of the church.Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: Random_Dragon on March 03, 2023, 07:52:02 pm
Post by: martinuzz on March 03, 2023, 10:45:40 pm
Your facsist Hitler government might have tried to tell you that the attack on Brjansk was a terrorist attack by Ukrainian forces.
It was not.
It was a rebel attack by Russian neo nazis. Your own fucking nazi extreme right people fucked your mother in the arse. And I applaud them, I hope they do more attacks on Russian soil. It's sad that it have to be the nazis who dare to do that. I'd rather have seen it to be the general Russian population but, hey, it has to start somewhere
But stop the fuck blaming Ukraine for that shite. They didn't do that. It was your own extreme right brothers, mothers and sisters who did that bombing run. I hope many of you died.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 03, 2023, 11:27:11 pm
Dear Russians who are anal raped by fake news on a daily / hourly basis.
Your facsist Hitler government might have tried to tell you that the attack on Brjansk was a terrorist attack by Ukrainian forces.
It was not.
It was a rebel attack by Russian neo nazis. Your own fucking nazi extreme right people fucked your mother in the arse. And I applaud them, I hope they do more attacks on Russian soil. It's sad that it have to be the nazis who dare to do that. I'd rather have seen it to be the general Russian population but, hey, it has to start somewhere
But stop the fuck blaming Ukraine for that shite. They didn't do that. It was your own extreme right brothers, mothers and sisters who did that bombing run. I hope many of you died.
1) You are a bit... extreme in your wording
2) Those are Russian Neo-nazi\white supermatists but they are not maniacs who would randomly kill civilians as Russian propaganda tries to claim.
3) Their de jure status is muddy, but they are de facto part of the Ukrainian armed forces and this operation was clearly approved and supported by Ukraine (not that it will be ever admitted officially). Am I happy about that? Not really. I am worried that we may be raising our own Bin Ladens. In the long run, racist pan-slavs can't be allies of Ukraine. Ideologies just don't match. But during a war for survival... enemy of my enemy works
4) If we want a civil war in Russia (and I do want it, I see it is the only realistic way to victory as I define it) guys like this may contribute a lot
Post by: Maximum Spin on March 03, 2023, 11:41:23 pm
Besides that, I also see a problem with essentially saying that ethnic Russians living in and apparently siding with Ukraine are still fundamentally Russians and Russia's responsibility. That's exactly what Russia wants.Dear Russians who are anal raped by fake news on a daily / hourly basis.
Your facsist Hitler government might have tried to tell you that the attack on Brjansk was a terrorist attack by Ukrainian forces.
It was not.
It was a rebel attack by Russian neo nazis. Your own fucking nazi extreme right people fucked your mother in the arse. And I applaud them, I hope they do more attacks on Russian soil. It's sad that it have to be the nazis who dare to do that. I'd rather have seen it to be the general Russian population but, hey, it has to start somewhere
But stop the fuck blaming Ukraine for that shite. They didn't do that. It was your own extreme right brothers, mothers and sisters who did that bombing run. I hope many of you died.
1) You are a bit... extreme in your wording
2) Those are Russian Neo-nazi\white supermatists but they are not maniacs who would randomly kill civilians as Russian propaganda tries to claim.
3) Their de jure status is muddy, but they are de facto part of the Ukrainian armed forces and this operation was clearly approved and supported by Ukraine (not that it will be ever admitted officially). Am I happy about that? Not really. I am worried that we may be raising our own Bin Ladens. In the long run, racist pan-slavs can't be allies of Ukraine. Ideologies just don't match. But during a war for survival... enemy of my enemy works
4) If we want a civil war in Russia (and I do want it, I see it is the only realistic way to victory as I define it) guys like this may contribute a lot
Post by: hector13 on March 04, 2023, 12:40:53 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 04, 2023, 02:09:10 am
T’be fair, given Putin’s background as an intelligence agent and the fact we’re getting to the end of Winter, and Russia’s failure to roflstomp an “inferior” (by military strength) nation, it would not surprise me if it was a false flag operation to engender further support from the Russian populace.
No, it is legit. It is Russian Volunteer Corps (don't confuse with the Free Russia Legion). Those guys are real and they filmed a video with their faces open and everything checks out.
As I said their status is blurry but formally they are a part of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Legion_of_Territorial_Defence_of_Ukraine along with other curious units like Karelian\Bashkir separatists
Post by: martinuzz on March 04, 2023, 01:10:07 pm
Post by: jipehog on March 04, 2023, 01:36:47 pm
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-belgorod-munitions-depot-fire/31995787.html
Apparently smoking is still bad for you
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Der Spiegel: German arms manufacturer in talks about building tank plant in Ukraine
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/der-spiegel-german-arms-manufacturer-in-talks-about-building-tank-factory-in-ukraine
Am I missing anything, because the idea of building an expansive tank factory in a warzone, in range of Russian missile strike sound like pure lunacy..
Post by: Ganondworf on March 04, 2023, 01:50:51 pm
Fire Erupts At Munitions Depot In Russian Border Region Near Ukraine's Kharkiv
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-belgorod-munitions-depot-fire/31995787.html
Apparently smoking is still bad for you
That news is from August 19, 2022. Unless I'm missing something.
Der Spiegel: German arms manufacturer in talks about building tank plant in Ukraine
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/der-spiegel-german-arms-manufacturer-in-talks-about-building-tank-factory-in-ukraine
Am I missing anything, because the idea of building an expansive tank factory in a warzone, in range of Russian missile strike sound like pure lunacy..
Yeah, sounds strange. On the other hand, I guess there are many possibilities to make it very hard for the russians to effectively hit such an installation. Maybe some kind of distributed production lines, underground facilities and what not.
Post by: Starver on March 04, 2023, 02:26:15 pm
Fire Erupts At Munitions Depot In Russian Border Region Near Ukraine's KharkivFrom what I readto, before the .js errors ("slowscript, do you want to continue...") started to show up, that seemed to be a report from back in August.
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-belgorod-munitions-depot-fire/31995787.html
Apparently smoking is still bad for you
Quote
Der Spiegel: German arms manufacturer in talks about building tank plant in UkraineI think it's very unlikely to come to fruition in that form. While constructing/commissioning the factory it'll be a prime target, even before it has to actually roll out its tanks.
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/der-spiegel-german-arms-manufacturer-in-talks-about-building-tank-factory-in-ukraine
Am I missing anything, because the idea of building an expansive tank factory in a warzone, in range of Russian missile strike sound like pure lunacy..
But I could see how the idea of such a thing could be very useful, in so many ways. Not sure which particular game they're playing, but all power to their elbows.
Post by: Eric Blank on March 04, 2023, 02:39:48 pm
Post by: Starver on March 04, 2023, 02:48:29 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 04, 2023, 02:49:59 pm
Post by: King Zultan on March 05, 2023, 05:31:49 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 05, 2023, 05:44:43 am
So are we gonna start seeing decoy tanks and airplanes getting set up like they did in world war 1 and 2?
Those are already quite common on both sides.
Post by: King Zultan on March 05, 2023, 06:09:50 am
I wasn't sure since I hadn't seen anyone mention it.So are we gonna start seeing decoy tanks and airplanes getting set up like they did in world war 1 and 2?
Those are already quite common on both sides.
Post by: Strongpoint on March 05, 2023, 06:51:13 am
Post by: Jerick on March 05, 2023, 09:13:28 am
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Post by: scriver on March 05, 2023, 09:26:59 am
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 05, 2023, 09:56:18 am
I knew one day my wargaming hobby would come to the rescue of my countryPutin seems to have the strategic skills of a below-average HOI4 player. :P
Post by: jipehog on March 05, 2023, 01:09:28 pm
Der Spiegel: German arms manufacturer in talks about building tank plant in Ukraine
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/der-spiegel-german-arms-manufacturer-in-talks-about-building-tank-factory-in-ukraine
Am I missing anything, because the idea of building an expansive tank factory in a warzone, in range of Russian missile strike sound like pure lunacy..
Yeah, sounds strange. On the other hand, I guess there are many possibilities to make it very hard for the russians to effectively hit such an installation. Maybe some kind of distributed production lines, underground facilities and what not.
According to the German article they claim it would be easy to secure such a site, but I more inclined toward starver idea that this statement has other purposes e.g. for propaganda value to show support for Ukraine or even simple political research about similar situation.
Sorry the ammunition depot link was a copy error, here (https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/explosion-reported-at-russian-ammunition-depot-in-occupied-kadiivka-luhansk-oblast) is the article. Not particularly note worthy but I try to skim over any thing todo with ammunition including Russian depots blowing up after they claimed they adapted to HIMARS strikes.
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https://archive.is/8RD6t#selection-1801.240-1801.521 (http://The West is struggling to forge a new arsenal of democracy)
Not sure if its true. But I did find this part weird which suggests that the EU out produce USA in terms of munition.
Quote
Currently, America can make about 180,000 155mm shells a year, while Europe, according to Bastian Giegerich of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank, produced about 300,000 last year. All told, that amounts to barely three months’ consumption for Ukraine.
Post by: martinuzz on March 05, 2023, 01:52:09 pm
Post by: Ganondworf on March 05, 2023, 02:04:31 pm
I knew one day my wargaming hobby would come to the rescue of my countryPutin seems to have the strategic skills of a below-average HOI4 player. :P
(Not so) funny, back in 2014 I told my gamer friend that Putin seemed to be like a pro gamer who, for example, knows exactly how far he can push something and get away with it. Like in Civilization, when you do something to annoy the AI, but it's not enough that they are allowed to declare war on you. Or in HOI, when you increase world tension, but stay low enough that the US cannot join the Allies faction.
Putin seemed to "get away with murder" for so long that nobody saw his below-average skills coming.
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 05, 2023, 02:06:19 pm
European armies had a different focus. In a full war, the main goal of European NATO powers was "avoid dying until the US shows up" - a conventional WW3 was basically assumed to be a race between American reinforcements arriving en masse and the Soviets/Russians rolling over Western Europe. For those NATO nations that took the threat seriously, artillery was a big part of the "dump everything at the enemy today because there isn't going to BE a tomorrow" strategy. So the arm was taken more seriously. Ammunition manufacture was also a common way for smaller countries to meet their NATO commitments. Many of the smaller countries in Europe simply can't afford to produce real combat power, but can make things like spare parts, ammunition, tires, etc.
Post by: jipehog on March 05, 2023, 02:42:39 pm
Is that really weird? A lot of EU member states have their own production facilities, so it doesn't surprise me that it adds up to be more than a single (albeit large) country such as the US
Considering USA military footprint and that it is biggest arms manufacturer in the world, it seems weird to me.
Obviously I am on the lookout for data on the topic, meanwhile I suspect that those are inaccurate open source numbers and or that USA isn't committing fully because its primary strategic focus is on China and Taiwan atm.
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 05, 2023, 02:55:34 pm
Is that really weird? A lot of EU member states have their own production facilities, so it doesn't surprise me that it adds up to be more than a single (albeit large) country such as the US
Considering USA military footprint and that it is biggest arms manufacturer in the world, it seems weird to me.
Obviously I am on the lookout for data on the topic, meanwhile I suspect that those are inaccurate open source numbers and or that USA isn't committing fully because its primary strategic focus is on China and Taiwan atm.
Arms manufacturing requires huge facilities and workforces. It can't be hidden. Meanwhile, Russia is as much a primary rival to the US as China is. The figures you're seeing are public information and hidden.
Biggest Arms Manufacturer doesn't mean #1 in every way. The big US edge is in extremely advanced weaponry - stealth aircraft, sophisticated missiles, vehicles so stuffed with electronics that their capabilities look like sorcery compared to those of twenty years ago. That's an area where maybe half a dozen nations can compete. Dumb artillery shells? Anybody can make those.
Post by: Madman198237 on March 05, 2023, 03:09:47 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 05, 2023, 03:19:47 pm
Deciding to deemphasize the artillery arm because of this was a mistake, and there's been efforts starting to correct it. But that takes time.
Post by: Grim Portent on March 05, 2023, 06:26:37 pm
I can't think of any situations the US has been in for the past few decades where artillery was important, let alone in great quantities, and to be honest I can't see them using much artillery in any hypothetical future wars. Sure it's relatively cheap, but all but the most over-engineered pieces of hardware in the active US armoury seem pretty good from a cost effectiveness perspective.
Shelling guerillas hiding in caves or bombarding a fortified enemy city are about all I can see the US actually needing old fashioned dumb guns for, and to be honest there are better things in their toolkit for both jobs.
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 05, 2023, 06:39:18 pm
This isn't me, an armchair civilian, saying this. There's a number of public reports from top brass that boil down to "holy shit we need more organic fire support". Granted, this was before most of the Russian SHORAD systems turned out the be paper bears, but that doesn't change the essential calculus.
Post by: jipehog on March 05, 2023, 06:46:26 pm
I could totally believe that the US was not actively producing all that many artillery shellsYes.. that not the weird part but that EU --for which all your reasoning applies, minus the military size, budget, sizeable deployment overseas in conflict zones etc -- have MUCH higher actively production of artillery's shells.
From cursory look, it doesn't seem the numbers posted reflect pre-war production, but that EU was able to substantially ramp up its production far more than US.
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 05, 2023, 06:49:01 pm
The US had fairly deep stockpiles before this war, and there was no expectation of a fight that really needed mass artillery use any time soon. Not only was a real peer war unlikely, three of the world's top air forces are American and planners fully expected airpower to be the primary heavy striking arm if war were declared. This meant that additional ammunition was mostly needed for keeping the stocks fresh and replacing the relatively small amount being used in actual combat and training.It's one of the reasons why small countries like Estonia punched far above their weight in supporting Ukraine. They might not have been able to compare with the volumes or the tech of larger NATO countries, but they were able to supply things like artillery, shells and barrels which Ukraine urgently needed early in the war, and still does. Not like most Western NATO countries had or ever will have much interest in building up large stockpiles of ex-soviet shells
European armies had a different focus. In a full war, the main goal of European NATO powers was "avoid dying until the US shows up" - a conventional WW3 was basically assumed to be a race between American reinforcements arriving en masse and the Soviets/Russians rolling over Western Europe. For those NATO nations that took the threat seriously, artillery was a big part of the "dump everything at the enemy today because there isn't going to BE a tomorrow" strategy. So the arm was taken more seriously. Ammunition manufacture was also a common way for smaller countries to meet their NATO commitments. Many of the smaller countries in Europe simply can't afford to produce real combat power, but can make things like spare parts, ammunition, tires, etc.
Post by: jipehog on March 05, 2023, 06:51:46 pm
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 05, 2023, 08:18:15 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 05, 2023, 08:31:35 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 05, 2023, 08:38:55 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on March 05, 2023, 08:54:01 pm
Not to bash you fellas too much, but right now Morocco have done better w/r to sending MBTs than the UK. All the 'western tanks' promises look like a joke to me. Too late, too little.Considering how many countries traded in their old stuff in exchange for newer stuff from the US/UK/etc, this is actually fails to properly convey the level of Western support. I'm frankly appalled that the US will send 'western tanks' to literally anyone BUT Ukraine. How long before Reputinists start asking to send M1 Abrams to Russia in exchange for them sending T-72s to Ukraine!?
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 05, 2023, 08:57:44 pm
Post by: EuchreJack on March 05, 2023, 09:07:31 pm
M1 Abrams have been pledged. It will take time to actually provide them because even pulling from desert stores will require refurbishment.I was about to say "hey why not pull them from our Allies?", but the countries that gave the Soviet tanks to Ukraine also got pledges in exchange...
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 05, 2023, 09:21:26 pm
Retraining is a real thing, and an entire logistics train has to be created ex nihlo.Come on. They somehow managed to start using Krabs and HIMARS with remarkably little preparation. I fail to see how training on new tanks is such a qualitative difference from artillery. As far as I can see the delays are almost entirely political.
Quote
The already pledged (in some cases, delivered) Western tanks are also far from too little (a few hundred latest-gen vehicles is an incredibly potent fighting force)What? Has anything been delivered apart from the 14 Leopard 2s from Poland? I'm honestly asking, it's hard to keep up with all the info.
Also, how do you count few hundred latest-gen tanks? If you don't count the Leopard 1s (and you really shouldn't), there's maaaybe two brigades worth - less than a 100 pieces - of pledged vehicles. Pledged. FFS. With deliveries spread out across months. This is maybe replacement rate, not creating potential.
Even among those the 'last-gen' is arguable, as e.g. half the L2s are of older variants.
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 05, 2023, 09:38:30 pm
Retraining is a real thing, and an entire logistics train has to be created ex nihlo.Come on. They somehow managed to start using Krabs and HIMARS with remarkably little preparation. I fail to see how training on new tanks is such a qualitative difference from artillery. As far as I can see the delays are almost entirely political.
HIMARS is literally a standard truck with tubes on the back. Training somebody who already knows how to operate and maintain a truck is only a little more complicated than "you make these connections when the missile pod is replaced, this is how you punch the coordinates into the computer". The vehicle component of Krab is a very conventional armored vehicle, and it was still months between the agreement to send them and the first combat use - that was the time spent training.
A modern MBT (and every model of Leopard 2 or Challenger 2 is fundamentally modern) is a very complex vehicle. Actually driving the thing is something where familiarity with T-XX tanks helps, but every other crew position has essentially nothing in common with the older tank - a T-72 gunner dropped into an Abrams won't be quite as clueless as you would be, but still wouldn't be able to operate it. That takes time. And once you know the technical operation of the new equipment, it takes a lot of time to learn the details of the capabilities and how to use them in combat - a Challenger might well be able to score a first-round hit on a moving target 2km away while the Challenger is moving at full speed, but that ability does you no good if you don't know you can do that.
And that isn't even the important part of training. The bigger issue is maintenance - all those fancy electronics need servicing, especially when the tank starts taking shock damage from nearby explosions or collisions. The engines (and the turbine in an Abrams is a very special engine indeed) need constant babying because throwing that much mass around in those conditions is hard. Even the tracks don't change the same way as what you're used to. It takes time to learn how to do all that, and even more time to set up the network to move all the spare parts that are not currently in your logistics system.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 05, 2023, 09:42:07 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 05, 2023, 09:53:13 pm
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 05, 2023, 09:54:56 pm
Post by: Starver on March 05, 2023, 09:55:55 pm
I mean, Clancy was very much into uplifting "Hoo yah, 'Murica[1]!" Combat Porn in so many ways, but I think he represented the relative strengths. I'll have to pick up my copy, to be sure, but the bits with the air and ground counter-attacks against the Russian Hordes/armies encroaching upon Germany seemee to be very air-orientated (and mechanised units) from the US, with more local forces going the full gamut of ground attack.
(Though my favourite theatre, in that book, was always the Iceland one... Involving the Air Force/Marine ragtag unit (and civilian) on the ground, for the most part, between the initial attack and the local denoument.)
...but the conversation has moved on, I see.
[1] ...and its allies, wherever applicable. Gives a sparse nod or three to the RN, etc...
Post by: Madman198237 on March 05, 2023, 10:19:28 pm
See, Shonus, I don't believe you. You make these pronouncements like you know anything about operating any of those vehicles.I highly recommend watching some episodes of Inside The Chieftain's Hatch. You'll see just how different these things are. In particular, he's got "Switchology" videos and I think he's done both the Abrams and at least one model of T-72, so you can see exactly how different things are.
The difference between operating one MBT and another is far different than what a videogame or stat card might be trying to tell you. A warmed-over Soviet MBT is not the same as a Western one; they must be used in different tactics and they have different crew positions and duties (good luck finding a loader to put into a Western MBT in a T-72 tank crew).
If you've got to engage a target, the buttons you use to do so are completely different. The tank doesn't have to come to a halt to engage the target, because Western stabilizers are light-years ahead of most Soviet-era ones; the vehicle has a functioning reverse gear and usable gun depression, so you might start running a berm drill that a Soviet tank would be unable to actually depress for, or you can just start running and nail targets on your way through, etc.
Knowing how to, to give a very Chieftain example, tension a track on a tank does not make you proficient enough to do it fast enough in conditions where your life depends on getting that track back in working order now. Knowing that your tank is X fast and turret spins at Y degrees per second and your (sufficiently trained? insufficiently trained?) loader loads Z rounds per minute when fresh...is all great information to have, but translating that into good tactical use of the tank is a LOT different than anything else sent their way so far. The IFVs get close to this level of difference. But comparing HIMARS to a tank? HIMARS is an artillery system; you fire and then pack it up and move. Maintenance is easier, tactics are easier, training is easier. But it's the tactics that really make or break a training regimen.
Post by: EuchreJack on March 05, 2023, 10:34:42 pm
It's doubtful, but the top brass might just be smart enough NOT to say they can't send the tanks yet because the crews ain't done training.
Even more doubtful, the White House MIGHT just be waiting to announce the tanks & crews when both are ready to go. Perhaps even being as smart as to hold off on announcing it until AFTER they start work in Ukraine.
From what little I understand of US military doctrine, the first guys are the Special Forces and get the best (longest) training. They're not gonna run them through a "crash course", if they can help it. Of course, this not being an Election year helps immensely.
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 06, 2023, 12:23:28 am
What's your source?My source for what? Being incredulous? You're the one with a claim. And a somewhat damaged credibility after those 'few hundred latest-gen tanks' of yours.
And yeah, Madman, I watch the Chieftain. I don't think it makes me particularly knowledgeable about this though (not any more that I am about gangbangs).
Look, I don't find it hard to believe that learning to use new gear is not immediate. I'm finding it hard to believe it's somewhat sufficiently harder with these tanks, than it was with other systems earlier, to justify the delays. New buttons, new chassis, new tracks, new gun, new communications, foreign labels, logistics for the entire thing - that's all true of artillery that's been in use since Spring last year. Modern fire control system - they've been using PT-91s since June.
And even if you won't grant me any of that as valid, because new tactics or something, how about this: Poland has already sent a company of Leopards! With other pledges we're talking anywhere from this spring to by the end of the year. The war may be over before they all arrive. Somebody explain to me why these 14 are easy to use and the other identical or nearly identical ones require months to train.
Hear me out - since this is the emotional thread - I feel like this narrative about the immense complexity, and this being such high-tech gear, and it taking so much time to organize logistics, and having to train how to be a loader, is greatly exaggerated and mostly just a story the Western governments are selling, that lets them pat themselves on the back, promotes complacency, and also happens to be incredibly patronising to the Ukrainian armed forces. (yes, that's a single sentence)
In any case, it's a trickle.
Post by: Lord Shonus on March 06, 2023, 01:22:16 am
What's your source?My source for what? Being incredulous? You're the one with a claim. And a somewhat damaged credibility after those 'few hundred latest-gen tanks' of yours.
You ARE making a claim. You're claiming that the West could easily provide lots and lots of tanks with no obstacles so they must be doing it on purpose. Meanwhile I'm getting information from people who actually drive tanks for a living that are saying "Putting a T-72 crew in a Leopard without lengthy training is just straight up murder". A retired Marine who spent his entire career thinks that the bare minimum transition time is five or six weeks for existing armor crews, three to six months starting from scratch.
Ukraine has been promised over a hundred Challenger 2s, over a hundred Leopard 2s, and close to fifty Abrams. All of these are latest-gen tanks, and there are a few hundred of them. How is that damaged credibility?
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 06, 2023, 03:03:57 am
Post by: Strongpoint on March 06, 2023, 03:43:06 am
14 Leopard 2A4s [Delivered from February 2023 onwards]
30 PT-91s [To be delivered]
United Kingdom 14 Challenger 2s [To be delivered]
100+ Leopard 1A5s [To be delivered]
8 Leopard 2A4s [To be delivered]
8 Leopard 2A4s [To be delivered]
10 Leopard 2A4s [To be delivered]
18 Leopard 2A6s [To be delivered]
3 Leopard 2A6s [To be delivered]
10 Strv 122s [To be delivered]
31 M1 Abrams [To be delivered]
This list may be outdated a bit but I would hear about a hundred of challenger 2s or over a hundred of Leopard 2s
Post by: askovdk on March 06, 2023, 03:56:08 am
https://cphpost.dk/2023-02-07/news/denmark-to-donate-tanks-to-ukraine/ (https://cphpost.dk/2023-02-07/news/denmark-to-donate-tanks-to-ukraine/)
I.e. somewhat old and in need of overhaul, but I hope they can be of help.
Go Ukraine!
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 06, 2023, 04:14:11 am
Come on. They somehow managed to start using Krabs and HIMARS with remarkably little preparation. I fail to see how training on new tanks is such a qualitative difference from artillery. As far as I can see the delays are almost entirely political.Not entirely political, as Shonus points out, but mostly political. It's why breaking the "taboo" is so important, and why countries like Estonia, Poland and the UK were significant politically as well as materially. When countries were debating whether it was safe to deplete their own stocks of arms, Estonia sent literally all of their artillery to Ukraine whilst bordering Russia themselves. When countries were debating whether it was safe to send "offensive" weapons to Ukraine without "escalating" the conflict or facing Russian retaliation, the UK was sending all of its anti-tank missiles and Poland was sending all of its artillery munitions in those vital early weeks of the war. And whilst other countries were debating whether they could send IFVs, Poland had already been sending its tanks and the UK had promised western-standard tanks. In each case a political taboo had been broken and the public case for sending weapons became not just palatable, but obvious. We can't exactly mock the German half-heartedness regarding sending materiel to Ukraine too much, for example, without acknowledging how traumatised their history in eastern europe is. For the german populace to actually go from supporting a limp German foreign policy to sending leopards to Ukraine is a political shift which will have great impacts for Ukraine, especially since the war will be a long one, and Ukraine will need armaments even after the war is over.
Also Ukrainian pilots are being trained to fly F-16s in Poland soon (https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/poland-ready-to-train-f-16-pilots-pm-tells-kyiv-36768) and will be trained to fly more advanced western aircraft in the UK (https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-to-train-ukrainian-fighter-pilots/) which will hopefully lead to breaking the next taboo of not supplying Ukraine with offensive fixed wing aircraft.
Quote
“It was the same, by the way, with tanks – it was a breakthrough moment when it was necessary to move the reluctance of all other allies. And, if you remember, despite the fact that the announcement was made, the official confirmation by the Prime Minister took almost a week, for him to officially repeat it,” Prystaiko said.The political angle is very important, especially for helping NATO allies who are more afraid of doing individual pledges of support but are fine with doing NATO-level support
“At this time, the British were trying to convince all the other allies that there were two options: either the UK proceeds with this announcement alone and makes this breach that everyone else has to go into, or let’s do this very important step all together as one front, as NATO. The UK was successful this time. I think the same process is happening now with fighter jets,” he added.
What? Has anything been delivered apart from the 14 Leopard 2s from Poland? I'm honestly asking, it's hard to keep up with all the info.-28 Challenger 2s pledged from the UK, for delivery undisclosed time in March (as per earlier article)
Also, how do you count few hundred latest-gen tanks? If you don't count the Leopard 1s (and you really shouldn't), there's maaaybe two brigades worth - less than a 100 pieces - of pledged vehicles. Pledged. FFS. With deliveries spread out across months. This is maybe replacement rate, not creating potential.
Even among those the 'last-gen' is arguable, as e.g. half the L2s are of older variants.
-Poland already sent some, is sending more soon with the aim of getting all 14 across in a few days. (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-leopard-tanks-are-already-ukraine-defence-minister-says-2023-02-24/) It's possible already all 14 leopards have crossed the border but Poland doesn't want to announce that yet for security reasons.
Also note:
Quote
Warsaw's commitment to its neighbour has been instrumental in persuading European allies to donate heavy weapons to Ukraine, including tanks, a move opposed by several governments, including Berlin, until recently.This is what I mean about how countries like Poland and the UK have been instrumental to breaking taboos in Paris and Berlin about "escalation" or offensive armaments, and even tiny ones like Estonia broke taboos about depleting defence stocks.
-Spain is sending half a dozen from March-April (https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/spain-will-send-the-first-shipment-of-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine-with-more-to-come/)
And while the other European countries had been waiting for Germany to give them permission to send Ukraine their leopards, last month the Germans finally ok'd other Euros the green light (https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-send-leopard-tanks-ukraine-russia-war-rheinmetall/) for sending their leopard IIs to Ukraine. So with that political barrier out of the way Ukraine should get everyone's leopards by the end April or May
Post by: Strongpoint on March 06, 2023, 02:32:21 pm
Spoiler: SFW frame, taken from NSFL video (click to show/hide)
Moments before execution of POW by firing squad.
Last words: "Слава Україні."
Assumed executed by Russians, now war criminals.
Date and Location still unknown, presumed recent.
This one is all over Ukrainian social networks, a revitalizing dose of anger.
Post by: Kamamura on March 06, 2023, 03:35:18 pm
Post by: Il Palazzo on March 06, 2023, 03:45:27 pm
Post by: Random_Dragon on March 06, 2023, 03:49:56 pm
What's exactly "revitalizing" on anger? Are you angry also about the atrocities committed on the Russian-speaking Ukrainians by the current Kyiv regime that was brought to power buy an armed coup organized and paid for by the West?
Fuck off, Russian troll.
Post by: Starver on March 06, 2023, 04:03:52 pm
Hi Red Diamond. Long time no see.Surprisingly old account, actually. And has contributed to DF culture before, too, though I had to look as there was no name-reconition in my head. (I did check the dear departed RD, before they dearly departed, and was also not very recent, memory suggests 2020ish (edit: Yes, just confirmed, early 2020) so I doubt the cart and horse were the other way round either.)
[...], Russian troll.Might I suggest we instead just roll out the actual refutations, again, instead? This new interjection is wrong, but could as easily be just misinformed. I mean, someone suddenly poking into this thread like that suggests not troubling or caring to be aware of all that has happened before, but if they're not just suddenly deciding to snipe away without care then perhaps we can square that particular circle instead...
Post by: Random_Dragon on March 06, 2023, 04:25:40 pm
Post by: hector13 on March 06, 2023, 04:57:20 pm
Hi Red Diamond. Long time no see.
More or less what I thought.
We seem to be getting a single-file procession of buffoons trying to suggest Ukraine is at fault for being invaded and it is getting quite silly.
But yeah RD, don’t be flying off the handle at it. If it is a troll that’s what they want, if it isn’t it’s not going to make them any more receptive to being better informed about things. Just gotta whack the moles as they pop up and make sure the facts are at the forefront of our arguments.
Post by: Loud Whispers on March 06, 2023, 07:35:34 pm
What's exactly "revitalizing" on anger? Are you angry also about the atrocities committed on the Russian-speaking Ukrainians by the current Kyiv regime that was brought to power buy an armed coup organized and paid for by the West?Okay but what do you mean by this? You can't seriously be claiming the government that was voted in is some malicious CIA coup which saw seal team six handing out rocket launchers to grandmas
Like dude
Russia is literally trying to conquer Ukraine. Russian tankies raped children and left mass graves of civilians and then abducted millions of their children to be raised in Russia. Putin and his men still claim Ukraine is not a country and will be wiped off the map. Literally several of these points fall under UN definitions of genocide. The Russian invasion started with the mass bombardment of pro-Russian areas in Ukraine ostensibly to protect those Russian speaking Ukrainians by turning them into corpses.
I don't know how you can possibly ignore such an elephant in the room
Even the most generously pro-Moscow talking point that assumes Ukrainians have no agency, and all Ukrainian government ministers are just puppets of NATO titans, and all Ukrainian people are not people with a will to destiny like any other... What Putin is doing is still evil, is still illegal, is still political suicide and did I mention it's evil?
Post by: anewaname on March 06, 2023, 07:53:01 pm
...Red Diamond, Kamamura, and who?
We seem to be getting a single-file procession of buffoons trying to suggest Ukraine is at fault for being invaded and it is getting quite silly.
...
Post by: hector13 on March 06, 2023, 08:45:55 pm
...Red Diamond, Kamamura, and who?
We seem to be getting a single-file procession of buffoons trying to suggest Ukraine is at fault for being invaded and it is getting quite silly.
...
Some weird-ass whose name escapes me, but he was posting nonsense in here and Ameripol. Made a single appearance supporting Diamond at one point and hasn’t been back since as far as I can tell
Post by: MaxTheFox on March 06, 2023, 10:17:02 pm
Nah they don't deserve it. Don't bother arguing in good faith with zombies, they are too thick to understand your arguments.[...], Russian troll.Might I suggest we instead just roll out the actual refutations, again, instead? This new interjection is wrong, but could as easily be just misinformed. I mean, someone suddenly poking into this thread like that suggests not troubling or caring to be aware of all that has happened before, but if they're not just suddenly deciding to snipe away without care then perhaps we can square that particular circle instead...
snipDon't feed the trolls, report and move on. Even if he isn't a troll, you won't fix him because those people are fundamentally rotten to their very core so why bother? I gave up long ago. That's why all my posts here since a while ago are so low-effort. Not taking idiots seriously really improved my mental health.
Thorfinn....Red Diamond, Kamamura, and who?
We seem to be getting a single-file procession of buffoons trying to suggest Ukraine is at fault for being invaded and it is getting quite silly.
...
Some weird-ass whose name escapes me, but he was posting nonsense in here and Ameripol. Made a single appearance supporting Diamond at one point and hasn’t been back since as far as I can tell
Post by: EuchreJack on March 06, 2023, 10:45:03 pm